ok i will take it

2nd derivative, I’m positive!

熊 市 未 完 　 僅 死 貓 彈新 末 日 博 士 魯 賓 尼 ： 牛 市 論 者 無 恥【 本 報 訊 】 近 期 美 國 大 銀 行 公 佈 首 季 業 績 ， 多 表 示 較 預 期 理 想 ， 連 在 金 融 海 嘯 中 重 創 的 金 融 機 構 亦 出 現 好 轉 迹 象 ， 令 市 場 憧 憬 熊 市 完 結 ， 牛 市 即 將 來 臨 。 不 過 ， 新 「 末 日 博 士 」 魯 賓 尼 （ Nouriel Roubini ） 訪 港 時 指 熊 市 未 完 ， 現 況 僅 屬 熊 市 「 死 貓 彈 」 ， 他 指 唱 好 牛 市 來 臨 的 樂 觀 派 （ optimist ） 過 去 兩 年 的 6 次 反 彈 市 中 皆 估 錯 ， 卻 未 shut up （ 閉 嘴 ） ， 指 They have no shame （ 沒 有 羞 恥 之 心 ） 。 　 記 者 ： 高 明 輝紐 約 大 學 商 學 院 教 授 魯 賓 尼 昨 天 在 港 出 席 香 港 總 商 會 舉 行 的 午 餐 會 時 指 ， 雖 然 市 場 共 識 認 為 股 市 先 行 於 經 濟 6 個 月 ， 但 他 指 這 並 不 正 確 ， 他 認 為 熊 市 仍 未 完 結 。 他 對 本 港 商 界 續 發 表 言 論 ， 表 明 現 時 股 市 回 升 只 是 熊 市 反 彈 。「 這 是 個 死 貓 彈 （ Dead-cat bounce ） 、 騙 人 的 反 彈 浪 （ sucker’s rally ） ， 諸 如 此 類 。 」這 名 因 準 確 預 測 金 融 海 嘯 而 聲 名 大 噪 的 教 授 認 為 股 市 要 經 歷 多 次 的 調 整 ， 才 有 機 會 接 近 真 正 的 底 部 ， 而 現 時 股 市 仍 有 三 大 「 驚 嚇 」 。第 一 ， 美 國 經 濟 持 續 負 增 長 ， 若 美 國 經 濟 增 長 是 2% 而 不 是 負 2% ， 將 會 令 市 場 詫 異 ， 又 預 期 歐 洲 及 日 本 表 現 更 差 ， 明 年 可 能 會 持 續 收 縮 ， 所 以 市 場 「 驚 嚇 」 較 大 ， 令 熊 市 持 續 ； 第 二 ， 經 濟 收 縮 及 通 縮 影 響 下 ， 金 融 機 構 及 非 金 融 機 構 的 利 潤 今 明 兩 年 都 會 較 弱 ， 令 市 場 繼 續 處 於 熊 市 ； 第 三 ， 金 融 震 盪 會 令 不 明 朗 因 素 繼 續 存 在 。「 上 季 金 融 機 構 利 潤 太 樂 觀 ， 放 寬 市 值 入 賬 會 計 準 則 令 銀 行 可 模 糊 賬 目 ， 損 失 未 有 入 賬 ， 金 融 機 構 仍 有 很 多 不 明 朗 因 素 。 」魯 賓 尼 又 指 出 ， 如 果 失 業 率 上 升 到 10% 至 11% ， 銀 行 借 貸 違 約 率 上 升 ， 將 會 令 銀 行 出 現 嚴 重 問 題 ， 他 認 為 銀 行 將 出 現 的 問 題 比 想 像 中 更 大 ， 加 上 對 冲 基 金 可 能 會 繼 續 去 槓 桿 化 （ deleveraging ） ， 加 上 全 球 經 濟 現 時 未 見 好 轉 及 企 業 盈 利 偏 低 ， 為 股 市 氣 氛 帶 來 憂 慮 。他 對 美 國 經 濟 同 樣 悲 觀 ， 指 出 負 面 因 素 包 括 零 售 銷 售 、 房 屋 等 均 呈 現 下 跌 ， 但 相 信 早 前 急 跌 後 ， 跌 幅 將 放 緩 。他 預 期 ， 美 國 今 年 失 業 率 將 升 至 10% ， 明 年 將 進 一 步 升 至 11% ， 全 年 經 濟 會 收 縮 ， 第 四 季 衰 退 約 2% ， 就 算 明 年 復 蘇 ， 幅 度 也 是 極 輕 微 ， 預 期 約 0.5% 。 他 指 出 ， 衰 退 期 達 24 個 月 。「 我 認 為 今 年 會 出 現 負 增 長 ， 明 年 縱 有 增 長 ， 也 會 是 非 常 微 弱 ， 弱 得 感 覺 就 如 收 縮 一 樣 。 」他 估 計 ， 整 個 金 融 海 嘯 從 高 峯 期 至 今 ， 美 國 金 融 體 系 損 失 最 終 達 3.6 萬 億 美 元 ， 半 數 來 自 美 國 銀 行 、 交 易 商 及 經 紀 人 。 他 引 述 數 據 ， 指 目 前 全 球 會 損 失 4 萬 億 美 元 ， 而 美 國 已 損 失 達 3.1 萬 億 美 元 ， 離 他 的 預 測 不 遠 ， 相 信 最 終 很 多 美 國 金 融 機 構 會 資 不 抵 債 。魯 賓 尼 （ Nouriel Roubini ） 簡 歷現 職‧ 紐 約 大 學 斯 特 恩 商 學 院 經 濟 學 與 國 際 商 業 系 教 授‧ 經 濟 顧 問 公 司 RGE Monitor 主 席‧ 美 國 國 家 經 濟 研 究 局 （ NBER ） 研 究 員‧ 英 國 經 濟 政 策 研 究 中 心 （ CEPR ） 研 究 員學 歷‧ 哈 佛 大 學 經 濟 學 博 士‧ 意 大 利 博 科 尼 大 學 經 濟 學 學 士測 市 預 言05 年 ： 樓 價 以 非 理 性 速 度 上 升 ， 樓 市 將 拖 垮 經 濟06 年 9 月 ： 警 告 美 國 快 現 史 無 前 例 的 樓 市 崩 潰 及 石 油 危 機 ， 消 費 者 信 心 會 急 跌 ， 最 終 導 致 大 衰 退08 年 初 ： 美 國 樓 市 衰 退 及 消 費 信 貸 出 現 巨 額 損 失08 年 2 月 ： 華 爾 街 將 有 一 家 甚 至 更 多 投 資 銀 行 倒 閉 *08 年 9 月 ： 美 國 會 拖 累 全 球 經 濟 齊 齊 步 入 衰 退09 年 1 月 ： 09 年 形 勢 更 惡 劣 ， 最 壞 時 刻 在 眼 前 ， 重 申 美 國 衰 退 至 少 要 跨 越 今 年 底 ， 「 金 磚 四 國 」 更 無 一 倖 免 ， 中 國 經 濟 會 「 硬 着 陸 」*08 年 3 月 貝 爾 斯 登 倒 閉 ， 9 月 雷 曼 兄 弟 破 產 ， 高 盛 及 摩 根 士 丹 利 亦 轉 型 為 傳 統 銀 行

Well, if you say so it must be true.

I swear I do not know how the Chinese are able to cope with western culture, much less the technology given the constrains of the Mandarin language and its twisted thought processes and no plurals.=================================Translation: Chinese » EnglishOnly unfinished shells bear market dead catDr. Doom鲁宾尼new: shameless critics bullBy the recent Bank of America in the first quarter performance, more than that better-than-expected, even in the financial tsunami hit the financial institutions also have shown signs of improvement, the market was looking forward to the end of bear market, bull market coming. However, the new “Dr. Doom”鲁宾尼(Nouriel Roubini) finished his visit to Hong Kong means the bear market, bear market status is only “dead shells,” he means to sing praises for the coming bull market optimists (optimist) of 6 times over the past two years rebound City estimates are wrong, but did not shut up (shut up) that They have no shame (no sense of shame). Reporter:高明辉New York University School of Business Professor鲁宾尼in Hong Kong yesterday to attend the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce luncheon at the mean, although the market consensus that the economy before the stock market 6 months, but he does not mean that it is correct, he thought the bear market is not yet over. He added the local business community expression, indicating that the current rebound in the stock market picked up only a bear market.”This is a dead shells (Dead-cat bounce), bounce wave lie (sucker’s rally), and so on.”The accurate prediction due to the financial tsunami and famous professors that the stock market to go through a number of adjustments, have a chance to close to the bottom of the real, and now there are three major stock market “shock.”First, the continued negative growth in the U.S. economy, if U.S. economic growth is 2% rather than a negative two percent, the market will be surprised, but also the performance of Europe and Japan is expected to get worse, and may continue to shrink next year, so the market “shock” the larger, the continuing bear market; Second, the impact of economic contraction and deflation, the financial institutions and non-profit financial institutions will be weaker this year and next year, the market continues to bear; Third, financial shocks will lead to uncertainties continue to exist.”Last quarter profits of financial institutions is too optimistic, the relaxation of the market value of recorded accounting standards may be vague accounts of the bank, the losses not accounted for, financial institutions still have a lot of uncertain factors.”鲁宾尼also pointed out that if the unemployment rate rose to 10-11 percent, bank lending default rates rise, banks will be serious problems, he considered that the issue of banks will be even greater than imagined, with hedge funds may will continue to leverage technology (deleveraging), coupled with the current global economy is still in the doldrums and the low profitability of the business, in order to bring the stock market worried about the atmosphere.He is also very gloomy for the U.S. economy, pointing out that the negative factors, including retail sales, housing and so fell, it is believed that the earlier steep decline, the decline will slow down.He expected that the United States this year, the unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent next year, will be further increased to 11%, the year the economy will shrink, about 2% in the fourth quarter of a recession, even if next year’s recovery rate is very small, about 0.5 percent is expected. He pointed out that the recession of 24 months.”I think there will be negative growth this year, next year, even if we have growth, it will be very weak, weak contraction may feel like the same.”He estimated that the entire financial tsunami so far from the peak, the U.S. financial system and ultimately the loss of 3.6 trillion U.S. dollars, half from the United States banks, dealers and brokers. He cited data that the world would lose four trillion U.S. dollars, while the United States has lost up to 3.1 trillion U.S. dollars, not far away from his prediction, I believe that eventually many U.S. financial institutions will be insolvent.鲁宾尼(Nouriel Roubini) CVServing‧ New York University Stern School of Business Economics and a professor of international business‧ Economic Advisors Chairman of RGE Monitor‧ United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) researchers‧ British Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) FellowEducation‧ Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University‧ Bachelor of Economics, University of Bocconi, ItalyMeasurement City, predicted that2005: property prices rising at a rate of non-rational, the property will adversely affect the economySeptember 2006: an unprecedented warning to the United States is fast property market collapse and the oil crisis, consumer confidence plummeted, leading to the Great DepressionEarly in 2008: U.S. property market recession and a huge loss of consumer creditFebruary 2008: Wall Street will have one or more investment banks *September 2008: The United States will drag the global economy into recession togetherJanuary 2009: in 2009 the situation even worse, the worst moment in front of us, reaffirmed that the U.S. recession across at least the end of this year, “BRIC” more immune, China’s economy will be a “hard landing”* March 2008 collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley is also in transition to traditional banking> swap

Nouriel, would you care to comment on the idea that this may be a quant fueled rally (as they delever their positions) and could lead to massive liquidity problems down the line?Thanks

David Rosenberg predicted, a couple of months ago, I think, that the S&P 500 would get down to $600. (That was a revision from his previous prediction of $666, before it got down to $666.)Kind of disturbing — 666.

A second wholesale crash is coming in awhile like the great depression. This is when the economy really starts coming back at the financial system. The modified mortgages start failing (as I have been saying they will delay the housing bottom and recovery), demand exhausts again–seond deravative becomes negative–because unemployment benefits begin to expire and more unemployment, loan defaults, corporate defaults start posing systematic risk again. Amid all this the increasing uncertainty about the health of the bad banks tends to make the system defunct and doesn’t bring in new capital, rather erodes existing capital. If the bad banks were allowed to fail, a lot of good money would have transferred into healthy banks which didn’t take insane and excessive risk. This seems to be the natural course of events but the goverment has tampered with it and now the sane banks are being penalized for the sake of bad banks, good money is being jeapordized for the sake of bad money. In other words, the system will turn sterile and defunct untill wholesale changes come about. That would mean to allow the market to distinguish between good banks and bad banks, a step which the govt hasn’t allowed to happen.For individual mortgage holders it is good that the goverment is modying the mortgages but this is one of the cases where the individual good is not the collective good. This will really delaye the housing bottom and the economic bottom. So long as the economic bottom is not reached and a meaningful recovery doesn’t take place, the economy will keep on coming back at the financial system and make things worse. To add to that the govt has changed the mark-to-market rules and that induces more uncertainty in the system.So everything that would induce uncertainty and make us reach a bottom has so far been left uncertain and there is a long way towards the bottom:1)When will the housing crisis reach a bottom? What if a good percentage of modified mortgages start failing 6,9, 12 months later?2)Which banks are sound and which banks aren’t?3)Changes in mark-to-market rules, fueling more uncertainty, just when the market needs a sound and clear basis to make judgment on where to put its capital should it do thus.4)The stress tests, as we all know, have induced more uncertainty in the market. The skeptics on the hands will believe that the govt was too soft and on the other hand there will be a tirade of criticism should the goverment toughen its stance. There was no need for this if the govt allowed them to fail or at least nationalized a lot of institutions which are bankrupt. Now just the anticipation of the results would fuel uncertainty in the market. What is needed is not sugarcoat things as a marketing agent of the bad and big banks, but a few consecutive national holdays where the govt takes the strong measure and closes down the weaker banks. So far this crisis has only shown there is nothing which is too big to fail. After all, the govt has thrown all the money around that it could, now it is time to let go the failed institutions and let the market setlle the matter.The only good govt action so far has been the stimulus package provided that money is allocated into productive elements and handled productively. Needless to say, it is good for the overall economy and thereby the financial system rather than being good for the financial system and thereby (supposedly) the economy.

In a recent statement he predicted the S&P500 would be between 475-600 for years.

Rep. Jane Harman says she never offered to help a “suspected Israeli agent” in exchange for the agent lobbying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a key chairmanship for Harman.http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/20/harman-vehemently-denies-bribery-allegations-allegdly-caught-nsa-tapes/

If truth is too hard to handle, use religious thoughts to reconcile it with the personal agenda. When proven wrong afterwards, errors are just ‘honest mistakes’ made for the best and readily forgiven.Join the club of honest mistakes, many members, few repenters.

Oh great, the great NR is calling Obama’s wasteful policy completely a failure. all those wasteful spending + Trillion deficit by Obama can’t end/slow-down the recession.

Admani states: “For individual mortgage holders it is good that the goverment is modying the mortgages but this is one of the cases where the individual good is not the collective good. This will really delaye the housing bottom and the economic bottom.”Congress is considering passing legislation that will allow cramdowns for some homeowners. This action, too, would be good for individuals, but will be catastrophic in the long run as banks will raise mortgage rates and credit will tighten further. Some of these cramdowns are Fannie and Freddie loans, and since these institutions have been nationalized, this action potentially increases taxpayer burden. Any government actions being taken to resolve this housing crisis have larger negative implications, and the free market knows best on how to tackle these problems. Government needs to step away and let capitalism work it’s own magic.

“For people who say there are green shoots, I see only yellow weeds frankly,” Roubini said at a conference in Hong Kong. “It’s not a true recovery. It’s just a bear-market rally, it’s a suckers rally.”

via ZHfrom MarketWatch10 reasons why Wall Street has absolute power over America’s democracyhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Even-Jack-Bauer-couldnt-stop/story.aspx?guid={BE0D1772-A628-454D-80BF-C4484CEBA7DF}

I think the professor understates the magnitude of the collapse that is lurking. It would seem that we have entered into a new world where financial warfare is afoot. It looks like our creditors are simply waiting for the precise moment to pull the trigger and send our economy into complete ruins devastating our world dominance.As long as our government remains complicit (whether knowing or not) we are at risk of complete and utter submission to our new masters. We should not underestimate the hatred the world has for America. Until we force our government to stop all of the wreckless spending and arrest and prosecute the Banksters we are at risk of losing our country as we know it.We have soldiers fighting a war that never mattered as we will be conqured withour ever being fired upon. Given the choice between sandwiches and freedom Americans will choose sandwiches. TPTB are desperate to keep the status quo never realizing that the change has already occured.

IMF Says Global Losses From Credit Crisis May Hit $4.1 TrillionBy Timothy R. HomanApril 21 (Bloomberg) — Worldwide losses tied to rotten loans and securitized assets may reach $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 as the recession and credit crisis exact a higher toll on financial institutions, the International Monetary Fund said.Banks will shoulder about 61 percent of the writedowns, with insurers, pension funds and other nonbanks assuming the rest, the Washington-based lender said in a report released today on the state of the global financial system. The fund projected losses of $2.7 trillion at U.S. financial institutions, an increase from its estimates of $2.2 trillion in January and $1.4 trillion in October.Concensus seems to be catching up. Banks in the mean time are reporting jolly good profits. Business as ususal.

Warren vs. Geithner live nowcut and pastemms://a1340.l2362426592.c23624.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1340/23624/v0001/reflector:26592?auth=daEcFdEa4dFcQbHbqdDaMbiblaKawcrcabJ-bj7DUs-bWG-MZKL&aifp=abc

I have a wonderful bank plan:———————————————-the new USA (private-govt) REIT partnership will be a win-win-winUSA REIT buys the bad mortgages from the bankssells each house to buyers with 10-20% downbuyers are advanced their future taxes for the down payment, and to cover the first 5 years of mortgage paymentsthe banks win…USA REIT wins…buyers win…economy back on trackthe money printed is from the future andthe future deficit will be controlled and reduced by strict budgeting and oversightwhich motto do you prefer?every family deserves a house or every house deserves a family

I’M FEELING A LITTLE BETTER TODAY!I just spent 10 minutes today talking to my gardener, a nice young man of 25 years, and he has expressed the same anger and frustration with the credit card companies, the banks and our govt’s bailout policies that are so often highlighted on this blog. He has closed all his accounts (business and personal) with BoA and transferred them to a local credit union. He is so disgusted with the way things are being handled, he “would gladly move out of the country if he could start another business”. But best of all, he talks to other normal, everyday Americans about these issues and will continue to spread the word!

How about a reverse bank plan…instead of the U.S. government buying bad mortgages from the banks, the banks buy bad tresuries from the U.S. government (well bad in the sense that there may not be any profit in them if the US dollar plunges).

Ali Bleshi says we have 15M already out of work… hmmm… good Video of Schiff, belshi, etc…http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNN-4-18-09_lg.asp

“U.S. Stocks Advance as Geithner Says Banks Have Enough Cash “

Benson’s Economic & Market TrendsEconomy: In the Eye of a Hurricane by Richard BensonMarch 19, 2009 — The $20 trillion of wealth in America that has gone up in smoke from falling stock prices, real estate, and other asset values, is being engulfed by rapid job loss. These combined losses have dealt a catastrophic blow to the consumer whose willingness and ability to spend has, in turn, caused the American and world economy to come to a screeching halt.Job destruction is a relentless force behind this economic downturn. Unfortunately, real unemployment is grossly underreported almost every month because of the government’s Birth Death Model (see: http://www.bls.gov), which magically adds jobs for firms that are estimated to have been started. For example, in the February 2009 job release, the Birth Death Model added 134,000 imaginary jobs. (How silly is that?) Therefore, the actual job loss in February was 758,000 not the 651,000 reported.The mainstream financial press also fails to report that only 60 percent of people who lose their jobs are eligible to file for unemployment. Many millions of workers are independent contractors or private business owners who don’t qualify for unemployment benefits. Even if you’re a real estate agent, mortgage banker, insurance salesman, etc., good luck trying to file for unemployment. So, when initial claims are reported as being 600,000 for a week, you can safely assume one million people actually lost their jobs that week.When it comes to forecasting the unemployment rate, sophisticated modeling isn’t necessary. All you need to do is a little arithmetic: First, take out half a million “imaginary” jobs created from the Birth Death Model, and add a million or so a week to the unemployed number reported. Then, assume that only two-thirds of the people searching for work will actually find a job that pays any money.Before the summer is in full swing, the national unemployment rate (now at 8.1 percent) will top 10 percent by August, and may rise to 12 percent or higher by early 2010. That means that the number of people officially unemployed will rise from 12 and a half million in February, to 15 million in August.The unemployment data in our country is designed to keep the reported number as low as possible (our government likes to show the rest of the world how much better off we are). In Europe, for instance, workers are counted as unemployed if they are discouraged, working a menial part-time job, or otherwise marginally attached to the labor force. The closest thing we have to a normal measure of unemployment is the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6, which shows an unemployment rate of 14 percent in January, or 16 million non-workers on an actual and non-seasonally adjusted basis. This could top 20 million by the fall. There are also currently 32 million people on food stamps, and that number could increase to 37 million by the end of 2010.Not only are workers being pounded by the loss of jobs and falling incomes, as the downward spiral continues the newly-unemployed will deplete their meager savings, stop shopping all together, and struggle to pay their credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages. Adding insult to injury, banks and other lending institutions are slashing credit card spending limits, closing accounts, slashing rewards, raising interest rates, and increasing fees. In other words, America is being forced to live on cash, not credit.Why should we be concerned about these pesky numbers? Well, the popular press is finally reporting that lending on mortgages to sub-prime individuals has brought the financial system of America and the world to its knees. The press is also willing to remind us that home prices are down about 19 percent in the past year, and the value of stock portfolios have been cut in half in just 16 months. But we rarely read about the turmoil in the lives of the 20 million people with no real job prospects, assets or income, or the shame felt by the 32 million people collecting food stamps, or the 16 million (and climbing) homeowners on the brink of foreclosure living in houses worth less than the mortgage. In America, if you combine massive unemployment with household stock portfolios cut in half and home equity virtually eliminated, and add to that a desire to save and pay down debt, what do you get? To start, a major fall in retail sales, corporate profits, and declining cash flow to service debt. The affects of this recession on consumer businesses from restaurants, clothing stores, casinos, to taxis, are already profound. We are facing a gargantuan national tragedy that, sadly, could have been avoided if our country had honest corporate management and a responsible government.A client of mine in Las Vegas who leases gaming equipment to the casinos there expects that every casino in Las Vegas will need to “restructure”, which is a euphemism for bankruptcy. In York City recently a cabby mentioned his earnings were down by at least 30 percent compared to a few months ago and as we zigzagged along the avenue, traffic was much lighter than usual. The press has already reported that between November 2008 and March 2009, price expectations for commercial and high-end residential real estate in New York City have dropped 30 to 40 percent.I do believe the reason that Citibank was only partially nationalized in its third but not last bailout, and 20 of the largest banks are going through “stress testing”, is because the government is attempting to hide the magnitude of the bankruptcy problem. The U.S. Treasury wants to buy some time as they try and handle crisis after crisis sequentially, rather than all at once. So, by the time the Treasury finishes doing the stress tests, it will be clear that unemployment will exceed the worst case scenario used in the test. It will also be obvious that the rest of the major insurance companies – besides the criminally negligent AIG – will need government bailouts. In 2009, the bankruptcies of corporations and major property owners will be filling the news and, in the end, consumer and corporate bad debts will destroy more wealth than financial de-leveraging has.So, what will mark the bottom of the chasm? The recovery plan will not be enough to sustain the economy and more stimulus will be needed. It will take at least six months for the world to realize how bad the world economy really is, even though many investors want to play the recent bounce in stock prices as a testament that the worst is over. But with so much uncertainly in the stock market, we don’t want to touch the stock market or risk credit markets with a ten foot pole until the intensity of this storm is clearly understood. Living in Florida we have been in the inside of the eye of a hurricane and for a brief period everything seemed fine, until the storm came back and blew the roof off of our neighbor’s house.But not everyone is at risk. If you have lived modestly and saved money, have no debt and actually own your home, you can sit back and watch the show without being asked to get up on stage and play a role in the tragedy. However, it won’t be easy avoiding getting stuck with the bill as a result of your neighbor’s mortgage fraud, or from the Wall Street criminals who stole bonuses, or from the proposed tax increases and lower interest rates you’ll be receiving on your savings accounts for months to come. Screwing the prudent saver and sticking it to the taxpayer is becoming the new national sport. I wouldn’t be surprised if the government’s actions led to a taxpayer and saver revolt down the road.http://www.sfgroup.org/Economy%20in%20the%20Eye%20of%20a%20Hurricane.htm

Monkey can make right decision!

@GuestWhat do you mean by “our country”? Just look at who is being rescued and then tell me whose country it is. Wake up! You are just an afterthought. This society is organized to serve the interests of capital. Could it be any clearer?

Great Article… I have been posting the basically the same numbers and sentiments for a while now…

Current food stamp data as of January 2009… what a shame… Using household of 2.7 per that is roughly 13 million families on food stamps…http://www.frac.org/html/news/fsp/2009.01_FSP.htm

I love the handle. I think it’s my favorite so far.

Came across an recent interview with Robert Brenner, an economic historian at UCLA.http://www.japanfocus.org/-Robert_Brenner__S_J_Jeong/3043His take on the current economic crisis is interesting. In short, he sees overcapacity behind much of the malaise, with the financial fallout as a symptom rather than a root cause. I find the theory provocative. Since the real economy has been in decline for years, the fed’s solution has been to stimulate demand through massive monetary easing and the promotion of consumerism on a vast scale – the so called bubble economy. What is frightening here is that even if we are able to repair our financial institutions, the basic economic problem remains. Perhaps in the short term, another contrived asset bubble will stave off the inevitable, but at some point in the not too distant future, I think the country is in for a very severe reality check.

The report I heard was the US Banks have “more capital than they need…” which begs the question…if that is true, then exactly WHY do they have MORE taxpayer money than they NEED????

From before: ” … So, by the time the Treasury finishes doing the stress tests, it will be clear that unemployment will exceed the worst case scenario used in the test. It will also be obvious that the rest of the major insurance companies – besides the criminally negligent AIG – will need government bailouts. In 2009, the bankruptcies of corporations and major property owners will be filling the news and, in the end, consumer and corporate bad debts will destroy more wealth than financial de-leveraging has.”And that is consistent with some postings from earlier threads. I copied over a long-term chart showing the distribution of US debt (from Morgan Stanley), and how that changed over a very long time period. The trend after 1929-1931 was for household debt and corporate debt to make major redeuctions over a 10-15 year period. we are now in the early stages of this cycle, and the long-term consequences look fairly scary. Corporate debt must either be resolved by businesses cuting back on expenses, laying off staff and re-structuring to become profitable again … or by going bankrupt. How do they do that – when consumer spending in the USA does not rebound to former levels. Bernanke’s scheme to re-inflate consumerism is dead in the water.Instead, Asia is starting to kick into gear again and money is flowing into the Chinese economy. Chinese consumers are continuing to buy, and retail sales are going up (contrast that against our own trends). So it looks much more like reinvorgation of new business is going to occur in China and Asia – at the expense of corporate America. Prospects for US companies look tough by comparison. Absolutely no need to tell you what this means – in terms of where global investors go with their money.PeteCA

Do you by chance have the source or a copy of the article? I’d like to read it to see what he says.

I haven’t had any problems.

This morning, Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner testified before the Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) headed by Elizabeth Warren. In general, the questions were excellent; unfortunately, the answers were not forthcoming.One excellent question was, ‘How does protecting the common shareholders of Citigroup help the economy?’ There was no real answer to that question — just a dance about how it was not appropriate for him to talk about any individual financial institution. The true answer to the question is: it doesn’t.

Entire (brief) Analysis => Timmy Testifies, We Take Notes, Dirk van Dijk, CFA – Tuesday April 21, 2009, 1:18 pm EDT

“living in houses worth less than the mortgage” – what do you get?people leaving their houses…why pay a $1700 mortgage when you can rent for $800?but now that home prices have fallen down to way pre-peak or affordable pricing, new people are buyingthis will be more recognized over the coming months: bottoming of real estatethe private-public “REIT USA” will be able to sell houses at these “realistic” pricesbecause people can afford them, especially if the Govt sets aside their taxes for the down payment and paying the mortgage- it’s much cheaper than renting! “REIT USA” makes money!Congress does not need to pass a spending billTreasury can just channel the taxes into the house down payment and mortgage payments!+ the Govt will guarantee the mortgage

Below is a link to a very interesting article (via John Mauldin / investorsinsight.com) on the near and not-so-near term Inflation/Deflation argument, but it’s a little much for me to get my head around, enough, so I’d really appreciate hearing what people here think of it.Also, a related question: If we do have deflation, and the FED / our govt keeps fighting it by spending and/or printing money, that’s likely to devalue the currency, right? So, in that case, even if you agree with everything else the article says, aren’t U.S. dollar denominated bonds going to be a bad place to be?http://investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/04/20/quarterly-review-and-outlook-first-quarter-2009.aspx

Rather than use (misguided) labels how about providing your thesis for why this is a socialist action.Mark

How can the Fed be promoting consumerism when the consumer has received diddly-squat from the Fed? Oh, and by the way, your financial institutions are beyond repair. They are going to collapse IMHO.

Peter, well stated. I recall in the lead up to the war against Iraq there being a propaganda bit running through the Internet, it was some “graphics magic,” which was clearly pro US invasion. I challenged the person sending it out, proving that it was a fake. He didn’t care! I asked whether he felt that being lied to was OK; again, he didn’t care; all he cared about was that we went after the “bad guys!”Hatred, bigotry and nationalist mentality, and now those who blindly supported all of it are and will continue to pay dearly.Bad decision-making shouldn’t be rewarded!Mark

…where function remains yet achievedSorry, don’t understand what you mean by that.

“Do you, Sir, view intellectual dishonesty as a necessary condition for lying?”@ SimpleIsBest on 2009-04-21 14:27:14We learn institutionally though rote and imitation, so said Aristotle more than a few days ago, my words, I para-phrase and…the role of government is to lead in word and deed or by example – as In the USA this has become true to the case, or,when those at the top lie au naturale, indulge in open theft, cheat, and wallow in all that smells of the sewer, is in no wonder that the following unwashed masses follow their fine example?Intellectual dishonesty shines throughout today’s society which we have bred into ourselves and is the finest example of our socio-economic system being in need of a change; they call it excellence; they call it the New World Order; a change that is upon us. We have climaxed at the bottom of the attentional Bell Curve, in every possible way and manner.Hanlon’s Razor rules supreme in every corner of the Globe. Then follows that which is termed evil.Ho hum

M: Yep, it is ugly. You can see why US consumers are focusing on paying down debt, and nothing much else. This is still a fight for survival between the banks and average Americans. The winner is the one who gets out of debt first.PeteCA

thats what many people have been saying that meterialism eats away morality but todays top intelectuals and think tanks said thats backward thinking. Everything that goes up have to come down, I think we forgot that lesson, power and money made us belevive that we were invincible. If you look around in the universe nothing is invincible from planets, stars and universe itself. If you take a closer look you will see there is acountability in all of universe. I.e every second the stars burn fuel they move inch closer to their demise. I think people in america have lost sense of accountability, even though most of them are self proclaimed relegiuos but they beleive( thanks to mega commercialised relegiuos institutions) somebody else paid for their sins now they are free to do whatever they want and they won’t be held responsible for their deeds in afterlife. In my openion until we have a society with deep sense of accountability we cannot have a peaceful and just world.

Krugman parses Tim’s words and find Tim comes up short (misleading)So the market was greatly reassured when Tim Geithnerhttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/vast-majorities/

NEWSPAPERS NO MORE ???———————–Earlier comment (news): “April 21 (Bloomberg) — New York Times Co. posted a wider first-quarter loss after advertising revenue dropped 27 percent and said the rate of decline in ad sales will be similar in the second quarter. The shares slumped.”———————–By the way – what you’re looking at here is the END of the newspaper business. Don’t get me wrong – not the end of the news. Not the end of media. But pretty much the end of newspapers – the kind that you can hold in your hands and read.The whole idea of printing things on paper in a daily newspaper is rapidly headed towards the scrapheap of human history. Newspaper operations are going bankrupt. Some of our biggest newspaper operations are teetering on the point of bankruptcy. The news business has been taken over by the online media.Those “darn guys at Yahoo” actually instigated a complete revolution … without even realizing what they were doing!! Nowadays almost everyone with a computer just taps into the headlines online.So say goodbye to your friendly newspaper. I suspect that most of the major national papers will probably be gone by the end of this economic downturn. There might still be plenty of local rags, of course (people always have to sell stuff!). And certainly specialist magazines won’t go out of fashion.But from a nostalgic point of view – the age old scene of a man sitting on a bench, with his legs folded and an open newspaper, could be history. In a way – it’s just as big a loss to our lifestyle as the demise of Ford or GM. Just one of those big changes – as we move into a new century.PeteCA

…No one is upset about the fact that America tortures, they’re just upset that they now know about it.

@PeterJBJon Stewart articulated a point about lying similar to yours in Monday night’s Daily Show with regard to the US Torture Confessions story that has been wall-papered over cable news of late. The line at the end of the segment will lose potency if I quote it here out of context, so check this link to a video of the brief segment to get it for yourself!=> We Don’t Torture (06:55),April 20, 2009Best

Now then, if only that darn junk mail would stop being printed!I’ll be glad when my local (and only) fish-wrap paper goes under.Mark

“After all the brewhaha yesterday by the Treasury that they had nowhere, nohow released Stress test results, the Associate Press (a little more credibility than an alleged white supremacist) has just come out with an exclusive that claims it has seen a Federal Reserve document discussing the stress test implications – yes, Denninger was right, and the Treasury was lying. This seem to lend much more credibility to Hal Turner’s disclosure from yesterday.”http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/so-treasury-was-lying-after-all.htmlHo hum

Michael Husdson, It boils my blood.Part 1: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-1-housing-market.htmlPart 2: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-2-bailout.htmlPart 3: http://renegadeeconomist.com/headline/michael-hudson-series-part-3-income-tax.html

Phil: Well, let’s look at it from different angles. First, if consumers really wanto fight dirty, then the strategy would be to pile on as much stuff as they can onto their cards – and then completely default on their CC debt. Pretty nasty tactics, but let’s face it. These banks have certainly knifed the average consumer in the back (by passing toxic debt to a taxpayer burden). Of course, this would give the consumer a black eye in terms of their credit rating, and it might take a few years to recover that. The main problem for the consumer at that stage is that if they also have a foreclosure situation and they go to rent any property, they probably won’t get accepted (bad credit = no rental agreement). That’s a problem. But this scenario could very well explain why the banks are savagely cutting back on peoples’ credit limits. They are simply trying to cut potential losses.The scenario for the banks – what they are hoping – is that people go back to spending. Maybe at a lower rate, but essentially back into living in debt. This would be Ben Bernanke’s “ideal solution”. It would mean that his flood of liquidity did eventually succeed in coaxing Americans back into the bad habit of always using credit (instead of savings). In that case, consumers continue to live in economic servitude for the rest of their lives. However, I don’t think this is going to work because America is headed towards a future with higher interest rates. Interest rates on Gov’t debt are at generational lows. This can’t and won’t continue indefinitely.Suppose instead consumers eliminate debt simply by paying it all off. And then they never go back to credit cards again. Maybe if they are lucky – they never go back to mortgages again (they own a house and just keep it). That will set people free, even if their incomes are not large. People who don’t make it to this state will eventually get killed by soaring interest rates.So their is a fight going on for Americans – to retire debt as quickly as possible, or to be caught in a nightmare of debt servitude and enforced bankruptcy.The wild card here would be if the bankruptcy laws were essentially loosened up again, right?And if you think about it – these bailouts from Washington for the banks are essentially “loose bankruptcy laws” for the Wall Street banks.PeteCA

有沒有人炒Citi贏錢?一齊去東莞起雙飛,玩空中飛人.

我去.

good idea

The following appears to be appropriate to the coming moments:”We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt.We must make our election between economy and libertyor profusion and servitude.If we run into such debt, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our calling and our creeds…[we will] have no time to think,no means of calling our miss-managers to accountbut be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselvesto rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers…And this is the tendency of all human governments.A departure from principle in one instancebecomes a precedent for [another ]…till the bulk of society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery…And the fore-horse of this frightful team is public debt.Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.”Thomas JeffersonHo hum

LOL! Probably headed by Bono!Mark

Another insider’s tale… An interview of Janet Tavakoli by C-SPAN’s Brian Lamb.http://www.q-and-a.org/Transcript/?ProgramID=1228[Excerpt:]LAMB: How could this happen again?TAVAKOLI: This is a bipartisan problem. You have people like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd who have been big proponents of this homeownership and big proponents of Fannie and Freddie lowering their lending standards. These are our big indirect mortgage lenders because they buy mortgages from people who have been the mortgage lenders.And it has destabilized our housing market. If you deviate from prudent lending and you put too much leverage in the system, and you have individuals putting on too much debt, it’s a formula for failure. What happens is you get a bubble in prices and as those prices come down you see, as Warren Buffett might say, ”When the tide goes out you see who’s been swimming naked.”And there are a lot of nudists in America right now. Unfortunately, their efforts were misguided. And if this was a way to buy votes, it’s a really bad way to do it because …LAMB: But, you know, if you look at the board of directors of Freddie and Fannie …TAVAKOLI: Yes.LAMB: …both Republicans from politics and Democrats …TAVAKOLI: Yes.LAMB: …from politics served on the board all through those years as the people running them were taking millions of dollars out. Now how did that happen?TAVAKOLI: Well, there has been a lot of crony capitalism. And I think Americans need to pay attention. We have a financial oligarchy. This has been said in many places. And I completely agree with that. These people practically have Tim Geithner on speed dial. And I was hopeful that when somebody like Obama came in that there would be meaningful change. If anything the situation has gotten worse. But this is bipartisan. You’ll notice that President George Bush, when he was in office, he elevated Roland Arnall, who was the head of Ameriquest, that had been involved in alleged mortgage fraud, massive, sued by almost every state in the Union.And he was elevated to the position of Ambassador to the Netherlands. The Netherlands didn’t even like it. There were articles in the Netherlands saying it was reprehensible because it sent a very bad public policy message.Not only can you do things that are against the American interest and can help destabilize the housing market, a huge piece of our economy, but you can be rewarded with an ambassadorship. It was incredible.And Congress approved it. So this is a bipartisan mish mash that we have of people whose interests are not serving the American people, primarily. They’re primarily serving and protecting the financial sector. And we’ve bailed out a lot of bad guys, a lot of bad guys.A lot of people, and I heard, I mentioned Paul Volcker was talking in Toronto, and he said that, ”Well, people relied on models and this was a mathematical error.” And I’ve been a big critic of models over the years and I have to tell you, this was not a model issue; this was a management issue.We had people who knew or should have known they were selling things that were value destroying securitizations and their sale provided money to mortgage lenders who were originating fraudulent loans, in some cases, and in other cases, loans that were brand new risky products that were overrated by complicit rating agencies.And I knew this sitting in Chicago, and I didn’t say it after the fact. I said it in real time and, you know, I gave examples of, this deal should not close. This deal is ridiculous and has more red flags for fraud than anything I have ever seen. It’s a classic situation for fraud. This deal shouldn’t close. It’s going to crumble.And I gave warning after warning about that and started speaking out about it in public. So there weren’t any outliers, like model outliers in mathematics, there were just a lot of outright liars, and we have not held people accountable for this. In fact, we’ve been bailing them out.[End Excerpt]What a big mess! And what a big racket!Mark

Why should I concentrate only on the message? I find it interesting for the reason I stated, and I’m glad I find it interesting. Too much sacrificing of ideals in this world. Thomas Jefferson was a great man in so many ways, and had so many great thoughts and ideas, and accomplished so much, yet for whatever reason(s), he wasn’t able to do some of the things he longed to do.

Tower of Basel:Speaking of interesting matters and conspiracy theories, this article is most interesting as it hits close to the centre of the Worlds problems, but I feel that the grandeur and strengths of these petty little pyrates, and pimps, are somewhat over stated as well as over-rated; well, perhaps they really meant tyrants. Persons that are bankers I have never liked much as there is always something oily and yellow about them – something like snakes in the garments of priests – but that’s just me. So, I’m against big banks but 100% in favour of horizontal small banks with specific utility as their function; only function.“BIS regulations serve only the single purpose of strengthening the international private banking system, even at the peril of national economies. . . . The IMF and the international banks regulated by the BIS are a team: the international banks lend recklessly to borrowers in emerging economies to create a foreign currency debt crisis, the IMF arrives as a carrier of monetary virus in the name of sound monetary policy, then the international banks come as vulture investors in the name of financial rescue to acquire national banks deemed capital inadequate and insolvent by the BIS.”You must recognize the fact that these people that band together in secret little groupies have no strengths or aptitudes; no courage or honour, and no goddamn merit; they are just sneaky little shits that spend their nights watching dirty movies unsuccessfully trying to get erections and as such should be brought out into the light of day with their underpants down around their ankles for all to see and laugh about.Give me a life or give me death BTW none of these miniature pricks have a sense of humour either.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13239Ho hum

you’re on NSA watchlist — this is just the beginning

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090422/pl_nm/us_security_usa_obama_8everthing about Obama administration is backlash on its people. one word, dont believe/work too hard on your gov, it will come back bite/burn you hard. forget about PPIP, you will get your head bite off/serious burned if you participate. Obama administration has no credential and always go back on its promise.

interesting

Acting head of Freddie Mac commits suicide

s,Interesting summary of the different approaches to consciousness. Jung primarily was concerned with what the alchemists called the unio mentalis phase of the opus. The second stage of the coniunctio is called the unio corporalis and here one enters with the black head of Osiris, i.e., thinking is not permitted while meditating =’s no active imagination.

What will they tell the children?By Bev ConoverOnline Journal Editor & Publisher.Apr 17, 2009, 00:19.http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4604.shtml..“Imagine, the president of the United States, rather than demanding all the criminals in the previous administration be held to account, says that “it’s time for reflection, not retribution.” What does that say to Malia, Sasha, all the other children and the rest of us?How can we claim to be a nation of laws and not men if we fail to bring the lawbreakers before the bar of justice? How is doing so retribution? And how will reflection put things right?Barack Obama promised the American people change. So far, we’ve seen little of it, other than a crumb here and a crumb there.What does it say to the children when war criminals go unpunished? When banksters and Wall Street that devised convoluted ways to steal the people blind, destroying the economy in the process, not only go unpunished but are rewarded with trillions of taxpayer dollars and then are tasked with fixing what they destroyed? It’s like asking the arsonist who burned down your house to rebuild it and hand you the bill.So, President Obama, do we tell the children that big crimes pay — not the petty stuff that lands people in prison, oftentimes for life? And that those who mastermind the crimes will receive the biggest rewards, while their peons who carry out the crimes can claim they were “just following orders” to escape “retribution”? Is that the message you wish to give Malia and Sasha?

Hey Mark,Thanks for another great URL. Here is a quote that made me laugh:”And I’m here to say that this wasn’t an innocent mistake. It wasn’t a math error. It wasn’t a black swan. It was the result of Black Barts, like the Californian stagecoach robber who used to engage in bloodless robbery and get away with it.”TAVAKOLI tells it like it is: no bad models, just bad management. No mistakes in exotic financial instruments, just no regulation. No outliers, like model outliers in mathematics, there were just a lot of outright liars.

more “shadow”y bank manipulation attempting to defraud theconsumer,( continued bubble pricing ), and taxpayer, (PPIP)let the bubble pop on the individual taxpayer’s personal bankruptcy.objective, alter natural pricing mechanismsin favor of the perpetrator of fraud and their shadow “fortunes”..Housing bubble smackdown: Huge “shadow inventory” portends a bigger crash aheadBy Mike WhitneyOnline Journal Contributing Writer.http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4618.shtml.Apr 22, 2009, 00:18Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed.The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama’s anti-foreclosure program — which is a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing — a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it’s clear now that the program will fall well short of its objective.In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside, indicating bigger adjustments dead ahead. Trend lines are steeper now than ever before — nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they’re crashing and crashing hard.Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, notices of default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These notices will turn into foreclosures in four to five months’ time, creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures between now and 2011. It’s a disaster bigger than Katrina.Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. Forty percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There’s nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale, suggesting more hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?600,000 “disappeared homes?”Here’s am excerpt from the San Francisco Chronicle explaining the mystery: “Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.“’We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market,’ said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac, which compiles nationwide statistics on foreclosures. ‘California probably represents 80,000 of those homes. It could be disastrous if the banks suddenly flooded the market with those distressed properties. You’d have further depreciation and carnage.’“In a recent study, RealtyTrac compared its database of bank-repossessed homes to MLS listings of for-sale homes in four states, including California. It found a significant disparity – only 30 percent of the foreclosures were listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. The remainder is known in the industry as “shadow inventory.” (“Banks aren’t Selling Many Foreclosed Homes,” San Francisco Chronicle)If regulators were deployed to the banks that are keeping foreclosed homes off the market, they would probably find that the banks are actually servicing the mortgages on a monthly basis to conceal the extent of their losses. They’d also find that the banks are trying to keep housing prices artificially high to avoid heftier losses that would put them out of business. One thing is certain, 600,000 “disappeared” homes means that housing prices have a lot further to fall and that an even larger segment of the banking system is underwater.Here is more on the story from Mr. Mortgage “California Foreclosures About to Soar . . . Again”: “Are you ready to see the future? Tens of thousands of foreclosures are only 1-5 months away from hitting that will take total foreclosure counts back to all-time highs. This will flood an already beaten-bloody real estate market with even more supply just in time for the Spring/Summer home selling season . . .“Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days. . . .“The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can’t be stopped without a national moratorium.”JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Fannie Mae have all stepped up their foreclosure activity in recent weeks. Delinquencies have skyrocketed foreshadowing more price slashing into the foreseeable future.According to the Wall Street Journal: “Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management, expects home prices to fall 22% to 27% from their January levels. More than 2.1 million homes will be lost this year because borrowers can’t meet their loan payments, up from about 1.7 million in 2008.” (Ruth Simon, “The housing crisis is about to take center stage once again,” Wall Street Journal)Another 20 percent carved off the aggregate value of US housing means another $4 trillion loss to homeowners. That means smaller retirement savings, less discretionary spending, and lower living standards.The next leg down in housing will be excruciating; every sector will feel the pain. Obama’s $75 billion mortgage rescue plan is a mere pittance; it won’t reduce the principle on mortgages and it won’t stop the bleeding. Policymakers have decided they’ve done enough and are refusing to help. They don’t see the tsunami looming in front of them plain as day. The housing market is going under and it’s going to drag a good part of the broader economy along with it. Stocks, too.

After all, Geithner’s personal income tax evasion scheme was overlooked prior to his appointment to Treasury Secy. What message should we concentrate on there?

Stupid news article title. Makes it look like the auto giants are tanking because of the British economy. I guess they write these articles purposely like this – or they are “released” to the news organizations from, ehm, somewhere.Crisis pounds auto giants as British economy tankshttp://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090422/tts-finance-economy-world-c1b2fc3.html

Britain revealed massive debt and soaring unemployment on Wednesday as top car companies posted dismal results, dampening hopes of any end in sight to the devastating global economic crisis.

(Besides I am sure that they hope that this crisis is as global as possible. That way they have a crowd to blend in.)

In other parts of CA, people are without homes and without jobs, and food banks for PEOPLE are going empty.

The estate tax only ends up being applied to the very wealthy. Generally only they and their apologists rant about this…Remember that it’s this system that allows one to hoard all of this “wealth,” at the expense of the rest of the world’s population, which, btw, 2/3rds live on $3/day or less!Mark

You’re flipping the argument in an attempt to sidestep the initial point. You (or was it you? all you “Guests” look so much alike to me) provided a laundry list of Jefferson’s failings in response to a very wise statement from him. My POINT, was that the message was sound; I was NOT judging the message based on the messenger.In Geithner’s case both the message and messenger are bad. But since you asked what message we should concentrate on, it should be, like the case of Jefferson’s quote, something quoted by the person/messenger, by Geithner himself.Mark

The reasoning is that it’s in the past, we’ve got to put the past behind us. Yeah, right, then by this logic ANY crime that is committed has already occurred, therefore it is in the PAST!Moral bankruptcy.Mark

Newspapers are the bottom of the food chain (poor analogy)of news gathering. As imperfect and as biased as they are, they perform and essential function to our democracy. If you think the internet is a viable replacement consider how many blogs employ reporters; blogs in many cases cite newspaper articles written by reporters who are employed by that newspaper. At the local level if not for newspapers the corruption of local politics would be a hundredfold more and corrupt business practices would have one less barrier to their misdeeds.Imagine a world where your only source for local news is your local NBC affiliate or all news radio station. In many cases even those look to the reporting from newspapers for their stories.

Any hope when this bear will start making money in this market?Or is it that US QE (unlike Japanese QE) is not something to fight against.

Hayes – we could be looking at a major deterioration in the quality of indepedent news and journalism here. I gotta’ feeling we are. Somce online sources are still good (e.g. BBC from England), although even those stories are getting more “touchy feely”. But no question … opportunity to manipulate the truth will increase without effective journalism.Where is Clark Kent and Superman when you need them?Darn … the Daily Planet went bankrupt !PeteCA

Bide your time.Obama, Geithner and Summers have made their power play. They decided in favor of the Wall Street banks and against the people. The cards they have played are now dealt. Temporarily they may have stabilized the big banks (we’ll see). But they have also set in motion a series of falling domino’s in the real economy of America. Now they’ve got to sit it out … and see what happens.Today GM went down.Chrysler and Ford are not far behind.Newspapers are going out of business.Commerical RE is crashing.A wave of corporate bankruptcies is coming.A wave of regional bank failures is coming.Bottom line, and this is critical …Where (and when) does US unemployment hit its peak value?That will be a biggy.PeteCA

King Barack The Mild – GM Is Becoming a Royal Debacle; By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.

It’s good to be the king — until you start tripping over your own robe.So King Barack the Mild is finding as he tries to dictate the terms of what amounts to an out-of-court bankruptcy for Chrysler and GM. He wants Chrysler’s secured lenders to give up their right to nearly full recovery in a bankruptcy in return for 15 cents on the dollar. They’d be crazy to do so, of course, except that these banks also happen to be beholden to the administration for TARP money.[Business World] Ismael RoldanWasn’t TARP supposed to be about restoring a healthy banking system? Isn’t that a tad inconsistent with banks just voluntarily relinquishing valuable claims on borrowers? Don’t ask.Kingly prerogative also conflicts with kingly prerogative in the case of GM’s unsecured creditors, who are the sticking point in agreeing to a turnaround plan by the drop-dead date of June 1. His retainer, Steven Rattner, has delivered word that the king’s pleasure is that these unsecured creditors give up 100% of their claims in return for GM stock.It may also be the king’s pleasure, he advised, to convert at some point the government’s own $13 billion in bailout loans into GM stock.There’s just one problem: Why on earth would GM’s creditors — who include not just bondholders but the UAW’s health-care trust — want any part of this deal?They’ve already seen that the rights and privileges of shareholders are not worth diddly when the king is throwing his prerogatives around. He dispensed with the services of GM chief Rick Wagoner, though the king owned not a single share of GM stock at the time. His minions communicated the king’s pleasure that GM consider discontinuing its GMC brand, maker of pickups and SUVs that offendeth the royal eye — though these vehicles earn GM’s fattest profit margins.His minions haven’t asked GM to give up the Chevy Volt, even after determining it will be a profitless black hole, because of the king’s fondness for green.No wonder the king’s mediation of 40 years of stalemated labor and business issues in the auto sector isn’t going so well. There’s a reason royal discretion has long been outmoded as a way to run an economy: Things just work better if a realm’s subjects are left to resolve their own disputes and interests through the impersonal mechanism of the markets and the law.His current bailout strategy amounts to asking thousands of bondholders and GM retirees to buy stock in a GM that the king’s own policies mean they’d be loony to buy. Add the fact that passenger cars and trucks in the U.S. are a trivial source of greenhouse gases in any case — they could all become carbonless and it would be irrelevant in the face of China’s and India’s coal use. King Barack has only been on his throne for three months. His policies already have devolved into savage incoherence.But let’s face it, the king is also somewhat lacking in the lion-heartedness department.He’s on record saying that the only sensible way to reduce fossil-fuel dependence is to put a price on it, as with cap and trade. Then why not have the courage of his convictions and do away with the proven ineffectualness and perversity of trying to regulate automotive fuel mileage directly?He could release GM, Chrysler and Ford to make those cars, and only those cars, consumers would reward with profits (including fuel-efficient cars they might suddenly find desirable if Mr. Obama moves ahead with plans to tax carbon emissions).He wouldn’t be foolishly trying to rewrite GM’s labor contracts and splitting negotiating hairs with its lenders. GM — along with Chrysler and Ford — might not avoid a trip through the bankruptcy courts. But either way, they’d be better able to meet their obligations to creditors, including UAW retirees, if allowed to focus on making cars the public actually wants to buy.King Barack could take a leaf from St. Jimmy the Simple, who faced a collapse of the railroad industry. He signed the Staggers deregulation law, returning power to the industry itself to decide what services to provide and which customers to chase. What had previously been an industrial basket case, halfway nationalized already, fixed itself almost overnight.He might consult with the Sage of Omaha, who has become a fan of the rail business. What would make Sir Warren similarly enthused about investing in GM? The answer, we’re guessing, is not more cars like the Chevy Volt. The banks get all the attention, but they have the power to earn their way out of trouble. Not GM, the way things are going. St. Warren could do the king a real service by warning him off a path with Detroit that could end up blighting all the years of his reign.

HI PETEMy guess, and I’m no seer, unemployment with significant underemployment and giveups has already hit about half of America. Is this as bad as the Great Depression? Most economists say no, because GDP needs like a 25% decline.That may likely be on the horizon now. Just wait until later this year, when the stimulus cash is sucked dry for local governments and unemployment; couple this with massive property tax devaluations coming soon at a theater near you. I see teacher layoffs coming then, like LA already is experiencing.Put lots of cash in your cash cans bloggers and get out of debt as fast as you can, if you haven’t already.

Clinton “mortal threat” in Pakistan as Taliban moves toward Pakistani capital. Coming soon-the “war of mass distraction” we all anticipated.

The lesson of this story, which you missed, is that the foreclosure of homes is permeating all of society and is having dire affects many don’t realize, such as creating a population of homeless, needy dogs. Good grief, would you begrudge an innocent dog a bone?. There is no “class” that is exempt from foreclosure — and some of those in the middle strata have more equity to lose than the lower strata, including a 20% down payment. Many in the lower brackets put down 3% (or less) with minority rights mortgage rates of 2% to 3%, i.e., less than RENT. If you insist on being crass, many of the PEOPLE whose homes have been foreclosed originally lived in apartments before they “bought” their $700,000+ houses in Salinas (that they couldn’t afford) and then, next first thing, bought a dog. Now, they’re back in their apartments and the dogs are at the SPCA or out on the street. If it bothers you that some Americans are capable of compassion for all living creatures, so be it.This story was not intended to be misread by someone as a class envy.And, for YOUR information, foreclosure notices in Monterey County rose 38 percent for the first three months of this year. Blame those figures on RealtyTrac

Agree

Very true I can tell you for sure that taliban are incapable of overthrowing pak govt in next 100 years. The only way they can do it is if they get support of the public and only way they will get public support is by us propaganda machine. Cause more pressure us puts on pakistan, more antiamercanism and more support for taliban.

Unemployment will not stop until it reaches approc 22-28% U6 and 12-16% normal. Translation about 30-40 million out of work when all is said and done. corporate profits dropped over 80% for the fortune 500 in the past year… how many companies can ward off layign people off at that number… not many…. And small and medium size business has tanked…. they are cutting faster than fortune 500′s. And at the end fo the day, and for the next few years who really needs anything other than food and housing… Consumption is not coming back anytime soon. it will 3-5 years before people have to buy crap they dont need again… They have played this entire crisis wrong, NO ONE has any confidence in what any form of Govt is doing, NO ONE trusts the banks or wall street or Fortune 500′s anymore. they have totally pissed off most Americans and unfortunaley since none of us ever controlled the the pruse strings ever we have to live through this mess that the PTB have created. I jsut hope their lives become as hard and at times miserable as msot Americans. Actually the PTB will never adjsut, unlike most Americans who will and are starting to…

GM hasn’t defaulted yet

You know the saying “it’s a recession when your neighbor loses their job and depression when you lose yours”. I think the reaction to your comment came from that. I don’t think any one disagrees that the problem of pet homelessness is increasing as people abandon pets after foreclosure. It’s a terrible thing. But when you lose your job and can’t afford necessities such as food, you’re not thinking about the increase in pets needing adoption. You’re thinking about feeding your children. And yes, envy can rear its ugly head.”many of the PEOPLE whose homes have been foreclosed originally lived in apartments before they “bought” their $700,000+ houses in Salinas (that they couldn’t afford) and then, next first thing, bought a dog.”First off, I never bought a home in CA, but IMO not every home owmer that is being foreclosed on did something wrong. Let’s not forget all the speculative investors that really drove the bubble in many areas. And where do they live? Somewhere else…maybe in the wealthy coastal areas, I don’t know. Second, what about these people’s children? We have a lot of hungry children out there right now. According to some of the latest figures, 32.2 million people (1 out of 10 Americans) are on food stamps.http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/bolingbrooksun/business/1534518,041709foodstamps.article

I agree with the estate tax. One should not be able to make his fortune here then move it when times get tough.

Jung had it quite wrong, and if the daoists were looking for enlightenment through dissolving Consciousness then they were way off base. The teachings of Zen/Mahayana Buddhism and Advaita which are all about finding enlightenment are NOT trying to dissolve Consciousness. The whole point is that all there is is Consciousness, and you are That. Phenomena/manifestation arise in Consciousness/Awareness but is not different than Consciousness (All is Consciousness). Thoughts(which constitute the mind),percepts,sound,sensations,emotions, all arise in Consciousness/Awareness. You are none of these things, you are the Awareness that registers all these things. There are no separate persons, there is no “you” just the one Consciousness/Awareness that acts as both source and witness. if you really want to understand this business of enlightenment it is best to see the following: Nisargadatta Maharaj, John Wheeler(The Natural State),Stephen Wingate, “Sailor” Bob Adamson, Tony Parsons (the Open Secret), Ramana Maharshi.