EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Consumer Reports Interviews and Preview of the Interview with Steve Forbes

4/14/2009 – Consumer Reports – Nouriel Roubini: It’s not all bad news (click here for video)

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_________________________________________ 4/14/2009 – Consumer Reports  – Nouriel Roubini: help for homeowners (click for video)

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_________________________________________ 4/14/2009 – Consumer Reports  – Nouriel Roubini: Falling Prices (click for video)

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________________________________________ 4/14/2009 – Consumer Reports  – Nouriel Roubini:What to Do Now (click for video)

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4/14/2009 – Consumer Reports  – Economic Survival (click for video)

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From Consumer Reports: This week, we at Consumers Union were fortunate enough to meet with and ask a few questions of Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business (see video). Roubini is now famous—some would say notorious—for anticipating the scope and magnitude of the current recession, which is now nearly 18 months old. He has a reputation for being, shall we say, pessimistic.

The good news: The worst of the credit crisis is behind us. Roubini says the economy is beginning to heal from last fall’s market tumble and the financial system crisis, in large part because of aggressive government fiscal and monetary policy.

The bad news: There’s still some pain ahead. We’re going to lose $3.6 trillion when all is said and done. The nation’s banking system is essentially insolvent. And even if all the government intervention works perfectly, there’s so much to repair that the recession will not end this year. Even in 2010, economic growth will be far from robust. And the nation’s unemployment rate, which will remain high after the recession recedes, may peak at 11 to 12 percent.

And that’s just in the U.S. The slowdown is worse in other major economies like Germany and Japan, Roubini says. Even China can expect only modest growth in 2009.—Chris Horymski

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From Forbes: Next Week’s Guest: Nouriel Roubini

Steve Forbes interviews Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor at the Stern Business School at New York University.

Nouriel Roubini is a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics. He is a weekly columnist for Forbes.com and writes a blog on global economics, ranked the No. 1 Web site in economics by The Economist.

He is also a research associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research fellow for the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Before joining NYU Stern, Professor Roubini was a faculty member of the Economics Department at Yale University from 1988-1995.

Roubini also served as adviser to the U.S. Treasury Department; senior adviser to the under secretary for International Affairs and senior economist for International Affairs, White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Roubini has been a consultant to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He has published papers on international macroeconomic issues, the Asian and global financial crisis, emerging markets and the reform of the international financial system.

His is also the author of several books, including Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies.

Roubini earned his undergraduate degree from Bocconi University in Milan, Italy. He received his doctorate in international economics from Harvard University.

132 Responses to “Consumer Reports Interviews and Preview of the Interview with Steve Forbes”

casualposterApril 17th, 2009 at 11:31 am

I’m new to the world of finance and banking, and am extremely confused: isn’t there some way to force the banks to reveal the value of the toxic assets on their books? If not, can these banks just make up numbers from now until eternity? And if so, then what’s the point of having them report at all?I feel violated by what’s taking place – that’s my money their playing with, and I can’t even get them to tell me what their doing with it. I took out most of my savings last year, but I’ve still got a 401K that I’m stuck in, because to withdraw the money would leave me with nothing on nothing. I don’t want to spend, I don’t want to save, I don’t know who to trust, or if we’ll find ourselves in recovery or depression in 3 months.Honestly, is there *anybody* that understands this crisis well enough to make educated predictions regarding what’s coming down the road. My feeling is that we’re in The Wizard of Oz, and that all this bluster about recovery is bravado, but I certainly don’t have the smarts to back that feeling up…thoughts?

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 11:47 am

comment from JJ @ Baseline Scenario:”How could anybody have believed the crap about someone making one dollar in the first place? Those symbolic gestures are absurd. How stupid must someone be to think people are that stupid?Goldman Sachs has behaved like a college student who used student loans to finance a gambling habit. But the student’s parents bailed them out. Grandpa Buffet came to the rescue with 5 billion and their gambling buddy AIG handed over the bailout money they received themselves. When a counselor asked them how they were doing they said they were doing great-failing to tell them how much they really lost in December. Now they want to give back the money so their parents will stop watching them so closely-so they can go back to gambling in peace.You said something on NPR about how it is Goldman Sachs vs. the government right now, but it’s not clear how to distinguish the two. Who knows, maybe the government feels better about giving THEM money, so they don’t gamble it away themselves. The difference between the two is getting blurry.”

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

Charles, your 23:03:30 post last night is excellent, adding to the growing realization that a private bank effectively controls United States official policy.Goldman Sachs, as more and more sources now reveal, is judge, jury, police and recipient of…and this is completely true…every single piece of value generated by the producers in this country. They pick the Treasury secretaries, they pick the Federal Reserve chairman, and who’s to say, in light of activities of the Bush and Obama administrations, that they don’t pick the president? There can be no doubt that they have veto power over who has a chance to be president, and any of his critical appointments.

AnonymousApril 17th, 2009 at 12:30 pm

Big banks and money mafia are building up their war chests with money trafficked from the Govt., letting the deflation monster first eat away at assets, and then pouncing.Agree with NR’s call that this will eventually turn out to be a sucker rally, but until the inflation/deflation course charted, more transparency, etc impossible to say near term.But I think your instincts are correct.Don’t work too hard, you’ll only pay a more in taxes, and any savings will likely be swindled in the near term at least.Try to get out of debt, pay as you go, stay healthy and employed if you can.

PhilTApril 17th, 2009 at 12:34 pm

Further, I do not want to hang the bankers. I want to put the more shamefaced and remorseful of them to work, Profumo style. Let them serve their penance by using their skills for a purpose other than self gain. We should employ them in an institution that tracks down cash stolen by corrupt figures in Africa and passed through global launderettes such as the City of London to nestle in an obscure Alpine bank to be used later for a coup.

Entire FT article =>The poor must be included in a global economy By Bob Geldof

economicminorApril 17th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

Two pretty good pieces.Smith goes thru the numbers and the charts to show why housing has a lot further to fall and second is an interesting piece…Why a 50% Drop in Housing Is Not the Bottom (April 16, 2009) A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers By Janet L. Yellen, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Talk is cheap… Wonder when the reality of the situation trickles up to the top? Looks like it is starting to trickle….We’ll see

economicminorApril 17th, 2009 at 12:44 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afYsmJyngAXQ&refer=homeApril 17 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration’s bank- rescue efforts will probably fail because the programs have been designed to help Wall Street rather than create a viable financial system, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients,” Stiglitz said in an interview yesterday. The people who designed the plans are “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”

Read the piece… It is what a lot of us have been saying for a year or more now.Sure takes some people a long time to see the train coming down the track..

ORApril 17th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

Stiglitz views are worrisome. It won´t hit us in the head today but it may in the not too distant future. In the mean time, the market continues to look very robust. Lot´s of smart people think it will correct. Me, I don´t have a clear opinion on this but I am more on the play t safe side thn the greed side.

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

From the previous thread, posted by MM CA:”This is the issue that will start to take down local banks…Las Vegas braces for commercial foreclosuresThe problem is starting to gain national attention with suggestions that it could rival or exceed the commercial real estate slump in the early 1990s that was triggered by the savings and loan crisis. That helped drag the economy into a recession.The Wall Street Journal reported banks could suffer as much as $250 billion in commercial real estate losses and 700 banks could fail because of that exposure.”I work in the commercial real estate industry and we have known for a long time that things are going to get pretty ugly. There are going to be a lot of CMBS maturity defaults. The deals were underwritten at 90%+ leverage on projected cash flows that never materalized. This was posted today concerning hotels:NEW YORK—According to Fitch Ratings, more than 50% of upscale and luxury hotels in recent vintage, fixed-rate, U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities may be unable to generate sufficient cash flow to pay debt service by the end of this year.In light of recent substantial declines in the hotel industry’s collective room revenue, Fitch reviewed the performance of the $6.5 billion of high-end hotel loans included in the 2006 and 2007 Fitch-rated, fixed-rate U.S. CMBS to determine the impact if revenue continues to fall at this pace for the remainder of 2009. Because of the high expense margins that hotels typically operate, a 20% revenue decline will result in net cash flow declines between 35% and 40%. In the event that luxury hotel performance continues to decline as it has year to date, more than 50% of hotels involved in CMBS loans may be unable to generate sufficient cash flow to pay debt service.Based on hotel concentrations in recent vintage, fixed-rate transactions ranging from 5% to 15%, large declines in high-end hotels coupled with more moderate declines in middle- and lower- end hotels could result in ratings downgrades, Fitch warned. For more concentrated hotel deals, the downgrades may reach investment grade bonds, while less concentrated deals may see downgrades extend to BB-rated bonds.Fitch further noted that U.S. CMBS loans backed by hotels located in Las Vegas in particular or other high-end leisure destinations face a significant challenge in maintaining debt service.

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

Its not GS vs. the Gov’t. GS basically is the gov’t. They can do whatever they want. Any type of scolding is just for show.

SoftwarengineerApril 17th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

THE PRESIDENT AND MOST OF OUR REPRESENTATIVES OWE THEIR SOULS TO THE COMPANY’S STORE (BANKS)How do you think they got picked in the first place?We the People must pay our taxes and realize that its clearly rigged against us. It also explains the many similarities between our present two party system.The best solution is go into denial and be glad for a slow motion train wreck economy, rather than all at once.Did you know if you throw a frog into boiling water it leaps out horrified, but if you put it in cold water and gradually heat it it until it boils, it just sits peacefully in the water and dies?

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

Well, I’m glad some one said it even if it is ‘worrisome’. When our interests in the stock markets dictate our moral views, things have gone awry. And we will be destined to fail.

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 2:00 pm

You have just swallowed the red pill casualposter. There is much to learn and your journey has just begun. Welcome to our (soon to be) scorched Earth. Accept the fact that there is nothing you can do to to stop it.To give yourself a sense of control, read http://www.amazon.com/Patriots-Novel-Survival-Coming-Collapse/dp/156975599X/ref=sr_1_1Then start reading http://www.survivalblog.com/Profiles of “The Prepared”http://www.survivalblog.com/profiles.htmlLists of listshttp://www.survivalblog.com/2008/02/from_the_survivalblog_archives_1.html

HayesApril 17th, 2009 at 2:25 pm

Suiciding The Market“Zero Hedge presented some perspectives on how broken the market is yesterday. The trend continues as today’s quant deleveraging trade already finished (market neutral quants down 17% in March, April likely much worse). Currently momo quants and marginal institutions and retail are buying, driving on fumes, and about to suicide the market (there is a reason Zero Hedge used an ecosystem analogy previousy: currently there is utter disequilibrium in the market and it is getting worse with every uptick). The bagholders are already in place (nobody ever learns from prior mistakes)…”http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/suiciding-market.html

CharlesApril 17th, 2009 at 2:31 pm

Thanks Guest. I’ll repost the comment from last nightNotice the last line: “Discussions regarding these matters were handled exclusively by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,” Ms. Pretto said.”From the NY Times:” Still, his stake could represent a potential conflict and is likely to reignite questions about Goldman’s involvement in A.I.G., and about why taxpayer money was used to shield A.I.G.’s trading partners from losses, when asset values plunged everywhere and most investors suffered greatly.Had A.I.G. simply declared bankruptcy, the financial institutions doing business with it would have ended up in court, as they did in the case of Lehman Brothers, fighting to get pennies on the dollar for their claims.Instead, Goldman Sachs received $13 billion of the Federal Reserve’s rescue money to close out various contracts it had outstanding with A.I.G. It was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the government rescue.A spokeswoman for A.I.G., Christina Pretto, dismissed any suggestion that Mr. Liddy’s financial ties to Goldman might have shaped his actions at A.I.G.“A.I.G. is a large institution that engages in standard commercial activity with companies all over the world,” Ms. Pretto said. “These activities are handled in the normal, day-to-day course of business and rarely, if ever, rise to the level of the C.E.O.”She said in particular that Mr. Liddy was not involved in the discussions of how to close out the contracts of A.I.G.’s counterparties in derivatives and other forms of trading.“Discussions regarding these matters were handled exclusively by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,” Ms. Pretto said. “So who controls the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?Stephen Friedman is serving as chair of the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He was appointed by Board of Governors to represent the public. Here is his bio:Stephen Friedman is retired chairman of The Goldman Sachs Group and currently serves as chairman of Stone Point Capital, LLC.He joined Goldman, Sachs & Co. in 1966 and became a partner in 1973. He was vice chairman and co-chief operating officer from 1987 to November 1990, and co-chairman or chairman from 1990 to 1994.Mr. Friedman is chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board and of the Intelligence Oversight Board. From December 2002 to December 2004, he served as assistant to President George W. Bush for Economic Policy and director of the National Economic Council.Mr. Friedman received his B.A. from Cornell University and law degree from Columbia University Law School. He is currently a board member of The Goldman Sachs Group, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, The Aspen Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations.http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/org_nydirectors.htmlWe can sll sleep better knowing that the public has such a strong advocate :) - Charles- Charles

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

Hayes,You’ve posted a lot of Zero Hedge stuff here lately, but for a newbie like me, it looks like Greek.Could you explain what quant deleveraging is? And maybe an overall picture of what’s going on in the market, in layman’s terms?

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

No, the problem doesn’t go away until the Fed goes away and until we elect representatives of the people, and not the banks.Goldman Sachs is only the most visible of the international bankers who operate and control this nation’s private Federal Reserve System.The Fed represents the most blatant scam in all of history. It represents the bankers, and the politicians who cause wars, boom-bust cycles, inflation, depression, and prosperity. It is a private money power—a centralized power that comes from the power to control a nation’s money supply.As Representative Ron Paul said, when the Fed “can replicate the monetary unit at will without regard to cost, whether it’s paper currency or a computer entry, it’s morally identical to the counterfeiter who illegally prints currency. Both ways, it’s fraud.”It is a power of which many men have warned and/or ackknowledged:”If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…” President Thomas Jefferson”Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is the master of all its legislation and commerce.” President James A. Garfield”The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, and more selfish than bureaucracy. It denounces as public enemies all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes. I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the bankers in the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe.” President Abraham Lincoln”Capital must protect itself in every possible way, both by combination and legislation. Debts must be collected, mortgages foreclosed as rapidly as possible. When, through the process of law, the common people lose their homes, they will become more docile and more easily governed through the strong arm of government applied by a central power of wealth under leading financiers. These truths are well known among our principal men who are now engaged in forming an imperialism to govern the world. By dividing the voter through the political party system, we can get them to expend their energies in fighting for questions of no importance. It is thus by discreet action we can secure for ourselves that which has been so well planned and so successfully accomplished.” American’s Banker Association, 1924″Regarding the Great Depression, you’re right, we did it.” Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman”Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens… while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some… who are (then) the object of hatred.” John Maynard Keyneshttp://www.publiccentralbank.com/

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 2:50 pm

Could someone briefly explain, in relatively simple English, what a quant is, and what’s the bottom line of this? I read some of the stuff posted before, and at zerohedge, but I’m not getting it.

PeteCAApril 17th, 2009 at 4:26 pm

Quant firms run market trading based on computer-based methods. They have proprietary computer algorithms that execute trades based on patterns in the markets. Everything is analyzed based on past market performance, and the quant firm knows their chances of making profits on the trades. The whole quant strategy can fall apart if the global market (stocks, currencies, bonds) starts behaving in a way that is significantly different than prior history. The folks at ZeroHedge are essentially saying that … the market has now deviated in a MAJOR way (6-sigma event?) from prior expectations. Is this true – I honestly couldn’t tell you. Since global trends are shifting right now, and some central banks are buying their own national bonds, it’s conceivable. If the quant firms do go down, they will essentially unwind their trades or deleverage their trades. Meaning, they stop gearing up big trades in the market and sell out. Could this shake up the market? Maybe. The market was rattled when big hedge funds went down along with the Bear Stearns collapse a while back. I couldn’t tell you what kind of impact the current quant companies will have if they close up shop. Watch and see. There are other things going on with CDS derivatives right now, besides issues related to quant trades.PeteCA

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 5:26 pm

Thanks very much for the explanation.> “There are other things going on with CDS derivatives right now, besides issues related to quant trades.”Would you be willing to expand on that, also in non-greek, layman’s terms?

GuestApril 17th, 2009 at 5:38 pm

Picture these banksters in their Armani suits carrying out jail sentences in the 3rd world as Geldof suggests!Do you think Madoff would want to trade his sentence for such a role?

HayesApril 17th, 2009 at 5:52 pm

I am no expert – your comments/questions relate to many that ZH has in his comment section (it would appear he can be a bit cryptic) – quant is another name for program trading e.g. high frequency trades based on algorithms / computer models (quantitative analysis). Goldman, Highbridge Capital, JP Morgan, Renaissance Technologies etc. all run quant funds; collectively quant funds account for more than 30% of daily trading volumes on the NYSE. (http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/PT041609.pdf)ZH is suggesting through his analysis that quant funds are/have been deleveraging, which in turn could could have a serious impact on market liquidity that could result in major dislocations in the market that ultimately would herald a major leg down.I have no idea if ZH is correct but the logic of what he is saying makes sense to me. Merrill and Barclay’s analysts have recently chimed in with similar observations.Intuitively I have a hard time buying that this rally has substance: with the fake bank earnings; the supposed good news of a slowing rate of decline of various economic measures; the carefully leaked and orchestrated announcements of government interventions; and a level of market cheer-leading that I cannot recall ever having seen before. This rally seems completely artificial – so if the quant funds reduce their exposure, there will be nothing but more hot air from the financial entertainment network to prop things up. As ZH says right now it appears to be running on fumes.

PeterJBApril 17th, 2009 at 6:05 pm

Quote of the Millennium:”“Something went wrong,” Ben BernankeBen Benanke Brief Profile: Chairman of the Federal Reserve and Pope of the Catholic (as in ‘Centre of the Universe’) Temple of Financial Oriented Faith (for the selected disciples of True Believers. “Economist”. Leading “Expert (‘x’ + rush of liquid) in Great Depression Dynamics.Hah! and Hanlon’s Razor to that…Am I unkind? Probably… but it must be stressed ( I like that word) that with all the resources, supportive academia, political and “leadership” obedience and willingness, infinite financial resources , opportunity and faithful blind following, not to mention social need, this “economist” profession and associated industries, have failed to even attempt to express their social responsibilities into a scientific founded enquiry into the essential foundation and underlying driving dynamics of humanity and civilization, that is to say, “economics”, for the expressed preference for blind apathetic “faith” in pure “superstition” and “opinion” (misplaced), backed by nothing but Bernaysian horse pucky.Ho hum

Free TibetApril 17th, 2009 at 7:01 pm

Pete, if I had understood ZH correctly they were contending that the quants had lost their mojo, had seen market behavior that left them no confidence in their own models and were pulling out of the market with knock on consequences to liquidity & still more volatility. i.e. nobody knows where this is going. Quants may have decided to wait and see. Remember, this whole thing started when BS tried to sell 100B$ in MBS and found NO MARKET! That’s how bubbles break.

AnonymousApril 17th, 2009 at 7:07 pm

A 401(k) is a defined-contribution retirement plan, which means that you contribute money to the stock market every month (if you’re in stock mutual funds), but any benefits you’re expecting from it at retirement are not guaranteed in any way. If you’re depending on your 401(k) to provide you with a comfortable retirement, you may be very disappointed when you’re ready to retire. Holding some long-term CDs could prove to be a better long-term investment strategy than dollar-cost averaging into mutual funds.

PeteCAApril 17th, 2009 at 7:36 pm

Program trading is not the same thing. In that case traders are making decisions using the human brain, and instructing their software to make buy/sell operations on the criteria they decided. Probably most traders (if not all) are using software to assist with buying and selling these days. They key, though, is that they thought through the strategies themselves. It’s more along the lines of trades that are executed daily or weekly, under close human supervision.Whereas the quants really are looking for (and implementing) long-term algorithms that continuously monitor the state of the markets and activate trades when they meet certain success criteria. Quant traders would argue that their algorithms are potentially more successful because they remove human emotions from the buying/selling process. Computer-based decisions are not tainted by fear, hope, greed, depression or anger. And they may not be limited by a narrow vision of the markets or a limited human perspective. So this removes a lot of human weaknesses from the trading strategy. But the quant strategies need a lot of back-testing against historical market experience, in order to be judged to be reliable. Of course, real performance may deviate if the market moves into “completely new territory”. That apprarently is the fear right now.PeteCA

PeteCAApril 17th, 2009 at 7:39 pm

Check with Michelle on this forum. She may be abke to update you on events this past week.PeteCA

kilgoresApril 17th, 2009 at 7:40 pm

To wethepeople:I noted your response to my comment on your post a couple of threads back (regarding the constitutionality of the income tax, the Fed, and fiat money). I replied to you in turn, and have taken the liberty of reproducing your response and my reply below.SWK_____Section 8 U.S. Constitution:The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States; …To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.First, the inception of the Federal Income Tax coincided with the creation of the extra-Contitutional (implied powers) authority granted to the Fed to “coin our money and regulate the value thereof..” I did not say the Constitution did not provide for taxation authority, but the point is that creation of a tax to pay debt is within the Constitution, the Constution is violated when congress allows a debt to be created with interest for extending the priviledge of coining our money…and then taxes us to pay the interest on debt created by that priviledge. Per the Yahoo paper: “The Court argued with the doctrine of implied powers, stating that to be ‘necessary and proper’ the Bank needed only to be useful in helping the government meet its responsibilities in maintaining the public credit and regulating the money supply.” As we now know, and Andrew Jackson so heroically acted upon to abolish that very same Second National Bank that was upheld 9-0 by the Supreme Court in the early ninteenth century, is ‘The Bank’ today has not been so helpful in helping government meet its responsibilities (it has created excessive responsibilities) and has (not) maintained the public credit and (not) regulating the money supply. Because the Federal Reserve has violated the implied powers congress was granted in the Constitution. And further as an agent of Congress, albeit a private corporation, which establishes it as an extra-Constitutional entity (i.e. not the U.S. Mint) the Federal Reserve deems itself as not answerable to Congress and has recently refused Freedom of Information Act reguests by private citizens. I would say, that a stricter letter of the law interpretation is needed to reign in such negligence created by the implied spirit of the law. It more than ironic to state the the Fed has ‘taken liberties’ with the agency relationship granted to it by the Congress under Congress’s ‘implied’ powers. The income tax merely was created to collect the interest payments from the citizens giving Congress’s ‘special agent’ private profits from compound interest in this case. Libertarian, conservative, or liberal makes no difference to me. In fact don’t let them divide us to conquer us. Fight..demand a full audit of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank is no longer “necessary and proper”! It is a trust that should be busted!Reply to this comment By wethepeople on 2009-04-17 11:49:19___I’m sorry, but I believe your position is without merit and riddled with errors, among them:>…the Constution is violated when congress allows a debt to be created with interest for extending the priviledge of coining our money…and then taxes us to pay the interest on debt created by that privilege.You have cited no authority for this proposition. Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution provides, inter alia (in the part covered by your elipses), that Congress shall have the power “[t]o borrow money on the credit of the United States.” The Congress clearly has the power to create debts, then, and I see no basis in the text of the Constitution for arguing that Congress has its hands tied in the way you suggest.>As we now know, and Andrew Jackson so heroically acted upon to abolish that very same Second National Bank that was upheld 9-0 by the Supreme Court in the early ninteenth century, is ‘The Bank’ today has not been so helpful in helping government meet its responsibilities (it has created excessive responsibilities) and has (not) maintained the public credit and (not) regulating the money supply.First, there was nothing “heroic” about Jackson’s actions in abolishing the Second National Bank. Indeed, it was foolhardy. After vetoing the 1932 renewal of the Bank’s Charter passed by the Congress, the pig-headed Jackson proceeded to withdraw money from the Bank and invest it elsewhere (for which he initially was censured by the Senate), including other banks (which at that time customarily issued notes not backed by reserves of gold and silver or anything else — they were certainly not issued on the full faith and credit of the United States). This led to huge state debts and nasty inflation, so in response, Jackson stupidly started requiring that purchasers of U.S. land pay in gold or silver coins, which drove up demand for gold and silver coins. Because the banks did not have reserves, or adequate reserves, to exchange for their worthless notes, the banks collapsed, directly leading to the Panic of 1837, and a terrible economic depression. Most importantly, his actions in abolishing the Bank had no effect on the unanimous finding of the constitutionality of the Bank by the Supreme Court. The Bank WAS constitutional, even if Jackson later undertook steps leading to its demise.>…the Federal Reserve deems itself as not answerable to Congress and has recently refused Freedom of Information Act reguests by private citizens.The Federal Reserve is not directly answerable to Congress, but this is how Congress wanted it. The idea was that the Fed should be private with Congressional oversight, not control, so that important economic decisions would not be politicized (I will not dispute at this juncture whether this has been an entirely effective arrangement). As for the Freedom of Information Act, it only applied (again, by Congressional design) to public bodies, not to private or quasi-private entities such as the Fed, so the Fed is under no obligation to respond to a citizen’s demand for information on this basis.I return to my earlier point: if you think the way things now are are not as they should be, then you need to convince enough of your fellow citizens and legislators so that changes can be made to accomplish what you believe should be the case. As there is nothing in the Constitution that requires a central bank, or federal income tax, or fiat money, statutory changes alone could accomplish your objectives.SWKReply to this comment By kilgores on 2009-04-17 19:26:18

kilgoresApril 17th, 2009 at 7:48 pm

There are a number of voices on this blog who are predicting a Doomsday scenario for the economy. Dr. Roubini maintains that this will not happen, and that although things will continue to deteriorate for some time, we are not looking at a repeat of the Great Depression. Call me a google-eyed optimist, but my money’s on Dr. Roubini.SWK

kilgoresApril 17th, 2009 at 8:03 pm

By the way, wethepeople, I appreciate very much your willingness to engage in civil debate on a topic on the spectrum of which we are apparently on opposite poles. It’s always a pleasure to exchange views with a gentleman.Kindest regards,SWK

Farnorth5April 17th, 2009 at 8:36 pm

Kilgores,well stated comments,BUT:Like most posters ,although the general complaint is that the Senate and House members are in bed with the Banksters,no one says that the condition of employment of the Elected Rep’s put them in this position due to the financing involved for campaigns/reelection etc.When I asked the question of a newly elected individual there was no resistance to limiting the campaign contributions of all banks/finance/insurance companies to a standard $100,000 per campaign to level the playing field.The justification was they represent a “Utility Function” that is supervised for the purpose of financial stability. The voters are just being outbid here.There is no mystery.In addition a three term limit to inject new blood into the operation was another option.Maybe someone more knowlegable can comment.What technical options are there to change the relationship between the elected people and their representatives??????

HayesApril 17th, 2009 at 9:07 pm

from prior thread NR says:”Next year the growth is going to be well below 1 percent. The consensus says about 2 percent, so it’s going to feel like a recession (INAUDIBLE) because we’ll have unemployment rate at 11, 12 percent next year.”from this thread:”The nation’s banking system is essentially insolvent. And even if all the government intervention works perfectly, there’s so much to repair that the recession will not end this year. Even in 2010, economic growth will be far from robust. And the nation’s unemployment rate, which will remain high after the recession recedes, may peak at 11 to 12 percent.”key caveat – even if all the government intervention works perfectlyFrom what I have read – TALF ain’t working – PPIP (aka the taxpayers’ gift to Goldman Sachs) is being met with a luke warm response – the Stimulus package – the jury out depending on one’s political orientation), the budget has significant deficit / spending embedded in it; China grew at 6.1% in the latest Quarter; the EU is not responding in a timely or meaningful fasion; etc.I may have missed it but when did NR state that Depression (prolonged L) was no longer on the table?

HayesApril 17th, 2009 at 9:18 pm

and just when you thought it was safe (ya right) there is this:Obama Expresses Confidence in Rattner (appointed to be auto czar) as Probe Touches Old Firm April 17 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama expressed confidence in U.S. auto czar Steven Rattner, whose former private equity firm was linked to federal and state probes of millions of dollars in pension fund kickbacks.Rattner, co-founder of New York-based Quadrangle Group LLC, told the U.S. Treasury Department before Obama took office about the investigation of alleged kickbacks…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP7jeqMpqC4Q&refer=homeOf course the above are all allegations – likely related to a virus that infected Ratner’s computer, which he got from a pirated version of Turbo Tax; then again maybe he is just a fishing buddy of Larry Summers.

HayesApril 17th, 2009 at 9:22 pm

and this (time to sign off for the evening)IMF warns over parallels to Great Depressionhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5166956/IMF-warns-over-parallels-to-Great-Depression.html

MichelleApril 17th, 2009 at 10:55 pm

“There are other things going on with CDS derivatives right now, besides issues related to quant trades.”Many CDS auctions have taken place this week and more will be coming up in the next week that can create forced-selling by hedge funds due to the need to raise cash. This week’s results show that the bids are coming in at a higher price than prior auctions (February), so the cash needs of hedge funds has been drastically reduced. This is good news in that the bids aren’t nearly as low as I’ve seen in the past (8-10 cents vs 29 cents)so this may indicate that liquidity is moving through the markets. Not only are the bids higher, but the auctions are smaller than anticipated for the size of the debt defaults, making me suspect that CDS netting is occurring, which is the way it was originally designed to work.With continued economic pressures and tight credit, I expect a continuation of CDS auctions to occur for quite some time, and every time a company defaults on their debt you can bet there will be an auction to soon follow. Continuous cash needs by hedge funds creates a lot of downward pressure on markets and a sustained stock market rally will be difficult until the economy stabilizes and defaults slow. We are only now starting to see the beginning of corporate debt defaults, but these auctions may be a blip on the radar compared to the huge ones we witnessed last fall (Lehman, WaMu, Icelandic Banks).I have also been following Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge and his analysis of the liquidity strains on quant funds. I agree with his analysis but also believe that the Fed is supporting and backstopping these trades via Goldman Sach and JPMorgan. Whether we see a six-sigma event is difficult to forecast as I completely believe that Bernanke et al are willing to manipulate stock markets upward at all costs as a psychologically positive move to avert an all-out depression. The biggest mistake with this action is that the smart money won’t buy until there’s a pull-back, and the higher the market goes the longer it takes for real liquidity to move back into the markets. This overt manipulation is creating more distrust and a lack of confidence, at least for those of us in the know, and it will be interesting to see if retail investors jump in just in time to take a big fall. I’m happy to sit on the sidelines and watch and wait.

MarkApril 18th, 2009 at 1:39 am

I think that there are plenty of people out there/here who understand perfectly well this “crisis.” It comes down to this: THERE IS NO SOLUTION.You see, if there were a one-size-fits-all solution then that would be like everyone running to one side of the Titanic. Clearly the problem is that his presents an issue of balance. There is no balance because those with the most weight (read “most wealth”) keep running to the same side, back and forth; leaving the rest of us just get sloshed around (when the wealthy are on one side they beckon for us to go that way, and as soon as we start in that direction they dash to the other).How then, you ask, do we keep from being sloshed around? Get off the ship! Rather, as reality has it, quit playing in this game of THEIRS. You see, it’s THEIR money, and it’s THEIR game.We’re a lot like Cortez, sinking by trying to hang on to fleeting wealth. I have to admit that I’m still having difficulties letting go: but I have less to let go of, having long since taken the Red Pill.The system is guaranteed to fail. I will wager any amount with anyone on this fact. Why am I so sure? Because it’s based on growth. And until we all understand (and account for) the fact that we cannot have perpetual growth on a finite planet, this system, and any other predicated on growth, WILL crash and burn. If I were to suggest only ONE educational piece it would be Dr. Albert Bartlett’s lecture Arithmetic, Population and Energy.And I’ll say it again (as I often do), Dr. Roubini will NOT be able to address the economic problem without understanding this very basic issue (which makes me wonder how smart he really is).Mark

MarkApril 18th, 2009 at 1:45 am

Decentralization of power!People are starting to get closer :-) Also key is the need to address growth (on a finite planet).Mark

MarkApril 18th, 2009 at 1:58 am

Well duh! :-) If they continue to spout about sustained growth on a finite planet they can’t exactly be very sharp now can they?Mark

PeterJBApril 18th, 2009 at 2:54 am

” In other words, beyond even the outrageously broad “state secrets” privilege invented by the Bush administration and now embraced fully by the Obama administration, the Obama DOJ has now invented a brand new claim of government immunity, one which literally asserts that the U.S. Government is free to intercept all of your communications (calls, emails and the like) and–even if what they’re doing is blatantly illegal and they know it’s illegal–you are barred from suing them unless they “willfully disclose” to the public what they have learned. (“New and worse secrecy and immunity claims from the Obama DOJ,” Salon, April 6, 2009)”"EFF attorney Kevin Bankston told Salon: “This is the first time [the DOJ] claimed sovereign immunity against Wiretap Act and Stored Communications Act claims. In other words, the administration is arguing that the U.S. can never be sued for spying that violates federal surveillance statutes, whether FISA, the Wiretap Act or the SCA.”http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13155Your future?Ho hum

MM CAApril 18th, 2009 at 6:17 am

I believe that Dr. Doom has toned down his rhetoric and dire anaylsis at the request of Obama and his people. He also accomplished a lot in the past year and was proved right on many occasions… Would not make sense for him to continue so dire so that IF things turn positive he can ride that wave also. He is protecting his future and credibilty so as to remain well respected by many. That is why it is very important to read between the lines on what he says.Bottom line, I see it for what it is today and it is a disaster for most Americans and will stay this way for many years. You cannot accumulate the debt and liabilities we have currently and at the pace we continue to, without SEVERE consequences on everyday life and things. 35 million people on food stamps, approx 15-20Million people out of work or in Shit jobs that gets them now where. Unemployment expected to climb much higher… Forclosure and upside down mortgages are in the tens of millions… Someone tell me where all the positive news is for Americans…. And someone tell me where the approx 10 Trillion spent on fixing things has worked. Banks and Credit card companies are gouging ALL Americans in the eyes with thier new Fees and taking back of credit. State and local govt’s are gouging people with all their new taxes and levy’s and fees. Health care is broke, Education is broke, Manufacturing is broke, Green technology is a pipe dream in this country as long as Big Oil and Banks are in charge… Medicare and SS have unfunded liabilites of 60 Trillion and rising…And they (Obama and all the others) expect me and All other Americans to beleive that an extra 12.00-15.00 in our paycheck is helping…I could list 100 other gloomy pieces of what’s wrong and quite honestly not many postive things about Economics and the finacials of this country and it’s people. Plenty of positives on people and societal issues, but what we have here is a TOTAL collapse of our Economic and Financial system caused by a bunch of greedy and corrupt Govt’t officals, politicans and Corporate types.Chryslar is toast within days, GM in bankruptcy by June and to be just a shell of itslef.. How the did that happen?Optimism will return when there are positive things happneing…. I for one probably wont be around as I only have about 25 years left here if all goes well…

MM CAApril 18th, 2009 at 6:20 am

I believe that Dr. Doom has toned down his rhetoric and dire anaylsis at the request of Obama and his people. He also accomplished a lot in the past year and was proved right on many occasions… Would not make sense for him to continue so dire so that IF things turn positive he can ride that wave also. He is protecting his future and credibilty so as to remain well respected by many. That is why it is very important to read between the lines on what he says.Bottom line, I see it for what it is today and it is a disaster for most Americans and will stay this way for many years. You cannot accumulate the debt and liabilities we have currently and at the pace we continue to, without SEVERE consequences on everyday life and things. 35 million people on food stamps, approx 15-20Million people out of work or in Shit jobs that gets them now where. Unemployment expected to climb much higher… Forclosure and upside down mortgages are in the tens of millions… Someone tell me where all the positive news is for Americans…. And someone tell me where the approx 10 Trillion spent on fixing things has worked. Banks and Credit card companies are gouging ALL Americans in the eyes with thier new Fees and taking back of credit. State and local govt’s are gouging people with all their new taxes and levy’s and fees. Health care is broke, Education is broke, Manufacturing is broke, Green technology is a pipe dream in this country as long as Big Oil and Banks are in charge… Medicare and SS have unfunded liabilites of 60 Trillion and rising…And they (Obama and all the others) expect me and All other Americans to beleive that an extra 12.00-15.00 in our paycheck is helping…I could list 100 other gloomy pieces of what’s wrong and quite honestly not many postive things about Economics and the finacials of this country and it’s people. Plenty of positives on people and societal issues, but what we have here is a TOTAL collapse of our Economic and Financial system caused by a bunch of greedy and corrupt Govt’t officals, politicans and Corporate types.Chryslar is toast within days, GM in bankruptcy by June and to be just a shell of itslef.. How the hell did that happen?Optimism will return when there are positive things happneing…. I for one probably wont be around as I only have about 25 years left here if all goes well…

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 7:32 am

That’s only true for California the rest of the country did not see real estate gains even close to that of California so the first article doesn’t tell the whole truth only the part the author wanted to prove his point. Author lost his credibility by basically lying or picking out the one state to prove his point turning the article into nonobjective political garbage.

RealistApril 18th, 2009 at 7:46 am

While California may have been off the charts, there were other areas that saw similar meteoric rises. I won’t name the one I’m thinking of until I get to closing. I’m glad that it’s human nature to look at the current price versus the top and declare it a bargain.economicminor – thanks for posting the link to Smith’s article.

RealistApril 18th, 2009 at 9:17 am

Many of these hotels should never have been built and if the appraisers had done their jobs and analyzed the properties properly the loans to build them would never have been issued.

FEDupApril 18th, 2009 at 9:37 am

I guess that means you don’t think they know what the heck their doing. At least this time, I was not eating a meal as I read your post as laughing hysterically with food in the mouth can be both dangerous and messy.

blind de miloApril 18th, 2009 at 9:52 am

@ many threads..another way of saying the same thing…this is an interesting link addressing many aninteresting notions, suggestions and potentialtools for insights and possibilities..http://www.imprint.co.uk/Wilber.htm…And this means that, where appropriate, researchers will have to engage various injunctions that transform their own consciousness, if they are to be adequate to the postformal data. You cannot vote on the truth of the Pythagorean Theorem if you do not learn geometry (the injunction); likewise, you cannot vote on the truth of Buddha Nature if you do not learn meditation. All valid knowledge has injunction, apprehension, and confirmation; the injunctions are all of the form, `If you want to know this, you must do this’ — and thus, when it comes to consciousness studies itself, the utterly obvious but much-resisted conclusion is that certain interior injunctions will have to be followed by researchers themselves. If we do not do this, then we will not know this. We will be the Churchmen refusing Galileo’s injunction: look through this telescope and tell me what you see.

PeteCAApril 18th, 2009 at 10:45 am

I meant to give credit to Karl Denninger for an excellent chart on US debt and GDP which can be found here:Decreasing Effectiveness of Credit On GDPWhat this chart shows – is the effect that one dollar of US debt has in boosting the GDP of the country. Notice that the effect is declining steadily, and hits rock bottom around 2014-2015. Karl Denninger notes that this final timeframe, roughly 5-6 years from now, marks the “zero hour” for the destruction of the US economy based on credit financing.I believe the reasoning is correct, but I tend to think that actual timeframe before eventual implosion will be shorter than 5-6 years. Since the global market looks ahead continuously, it’s reasonable to speculate that this enormous Ponzi scheme in US Government debt will meet strong headwinds in the not-too-distant future.PeteCA

4me2noApril 18th, 2009 at 11:05 am

Because of this moutain of debt, you can count on the $ printing press running full bore. Basically, the government/bankster cabal is and will continue to be confiscating savers’ money so debt can be repaid in cheaper $’s. What’s the solution (within the realm of this blog) for those who are not in debt and want to survive on this crappy planet for as long as possible? Have a well-paying job, live frugally, and invest excess $’s in a diversified portfolio of hard assets. Good luck.

FEDupApril 18th, 2009 at 11:12 am

excellent video! Two among many great lines: “failure to understand the effects of the exponential function and we seem to worship growth in this country”. Truly shameful that ignorance and greed always seems to trump education, common sense and respect for each other and the planet. And yes, you’re right, unless this key issue is immediately addressed and prioritized, all else becomes irrelevant as we have almost crossed the threshold and reached the point of no return of “1 minute before 12:00″!

PeteCAApril 18th, 2009 at 11:20 am

As a follow-up comment, take a look at the second chart in the following recent article by Eric Janszen. Thanks Eric! The 2′nd chart shows long-term Personal Consumer Expenditures in the USA.Since 1980 this important variable has been decreasing steadily on a long-term basis. Strong US recessions correspond to significant downturns in PCE, but even when PCE recovers afterwards – it never stabilizes. The trend is always down in the long-term.Long Term PCE for US ConsumersPut the message together from these two charts, and what do you conclude about where the GDP of the USA will be in 5 years?THEREFORE – the whole downturn started by the mortgage crisis in 2007 can be viewed as the early impact of a series of economic earthquakes as the USA approaches a general collapse point – for an economy based on debt and Ponzi finance.

ptmApril 18th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

Thank you for that URL Mark. An excellent presentation that has withstood the test of time for almost 20 years! And the key point for me was that people will ignore this issue until the last doubling when it’s too late. One has to be prepared before the last doubling.I especially liked Dr. Bartlett’s Table of OptionsIncreasing Population===========Decreasing PopulationProcreation===================ContraceptionMotherhood==================AbortionLarge Families================Small FamiliesImmigration==================Protecting BoardersMedicinePublic Health=================DiseaseSanitationPeace======================WarLaw and Order===============Violence and MurderScientific Agriculture===========FamineSafety (seatbelts)=============Fatal AccidentsClean Air====================PollutionIgnorance===================?Education?Dr. Bartlett describes the above tradeoffs and posses the question: Who is going to choose options from this list? Mother nature or us?

kilgoresApril 18th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Well, I’ve opined on this blog in detail about the dangers of de facto corporatocracy supplanting our democratic republic. I’m my view, the courts’ gradual recognition and expansion of constitutional rights in artificial legal persons — corporations — over the past 140 years or so has exacerbated the undue influence exercised by big money and lobbyists. Corporations are not citizens: human beings are. We need to get a handle on that before we can hope to see any meaningful change.SWK

FEDupApril 18th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

excellent posts 3Pete! Perhaps this is why the greatest financial heist of all time is occurring now; certainly, Benvito, Pauly and the rest are aware of this outcome and need about 5 years to transfer the amount of wealth they have in mind!

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

Talk about “Stress Testing”, there’s an article in today’s Washington Post about how the CIA, when they were using “Harsh Interrogation Techniques” on their Iraqi captives, that they used CIA Physicians to keep them alive, CIA Psychologists to determine which “stress testing”, [aka torture], techniques were particularly effective on the designated enemy combatants — such as Sleep Deprivation, Water Boarding, Attack Dogs, etc.What we are talking about is POWER. The Power of the Federal Government, our Government to inflict Fear and Pain on whomever it chooses to identify as “Enemy Combatants”.Piss off the Government enough, and they might decide that you or I have become Enemies Of The State. They can Stress Test you or me with electricity applied to our body. They can Stress Test you or me with Water Boarding, while CIA Physicians monitor our vital signs to make sure that we are kept alive.

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

PeterJB,Off topic, but; for some time I wanted to ask your opinion of consciousness after death, but couldn’t find a way to ask you the question on your blog. Probably not relevant here, but…hlowe

kilgoresApril 18th, 2009 at 4:46 pm

Dr. Roubini has pretty well consistently left open the possibility of a “near-depression” — a prolonged, Japan-style L-shaped downturn that would still not be as severe as the Great Depression of the 1930s — if government intervention was not sufficiently robust and timely. He has repeatedly said he’s not in the “Doomsday” camp.SWK

Farnorth5April 18th, 2009 at 5:25 pm

Yes ,I agree.I have gone back and relooked at the good Doctors video,s several times.What we are all staring at is the fact that the existing 500 year old financial system was never designed to cope with a finite world.It is not based on science,with a fixed unit of measurement that brings repeatable results when you apply a theory.Economic planning right now ,using the existing system is basically a joke.Unfortunately the joke is on us,as we dont have control over the system..Is anyone up for starting with a clean sheet of paper and devising a system that would join the Physical Economy with the Financial Economy ,that is actually stable and programmable ???

blind peaApril 18th, 2009 at 6:32 pm

@ some of above..and speaking of stressful poetry as a form of torture.( egg, skip this section)..i was reading in the paper concerning down town N.Y.,the stated future financial center of the world, to bebuilt on the site of the horrible demolition of wtc 1-7.apparently dubai isn’t ready or working out.( soon to beunder water in so many ways.) puke here…..anyway… thoughts of sustainability ran throughmy head like sugarplums at christmas and i thoughtof ted hawkins via john prine “christmas in prison”.ted wrote a song called “The Constitution”. ..it goes….” lets not forget the constitution.that is the reason why we all stand free.our for fathers fought for the right..so that men and women can be free.”.there are more lyrics than these but these areenough..ted did time in prison, probably for drug possessionwhile committing the crime of not havingenough money or a license to do so. but that didn’tdiminish his genius..And so i had reason to go to the port authority innew york city to pick up a traveler from boston.i have a car and drove to 42 st. and 8th ave. for thepick up. here is where it becomes poetic.wouldn’t you know, with thousands of people, millions?,walking and talking, shopping and driving, hustlingand waiting, i would see on the side walk …a man, pants down to his ankles, squatting over anopen plastic bag, reading the paper and taking a shit.and as i passed he looked up to notice a mr. softyice cream truck passing by. with a half dozen yellowtaxis behind i had to slow down to wonder as dozens ofmy fellow men and women passed this marvel and , perhaps, did not even notice.?such is life in the financial capital of the world.?i thought “now this is a man i can respect”. he hasthe common sense and decency to shit into a plastic bag,in public, yes, but this is time square, presumably to dispose of in a proper way whatever that may be.then i thought of all those imperial defficators inpositions of “power” who choose to shit where theyeat. no comparison. i’ll take the guy with themr. sofy dream.peas.

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 7:05 pm

left out of the infrastructure investment/improvement discussion…the financial infrastructure of this country and the g20. Central banks should be nationalized, the IMF and WB democratized. break up these trusts!

blind de miloApril 18th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

h,for the sake of clarity and consciousness which isa commodity in rare supply, here i offer some free.blindman and related blind and fish head crapis not rationally or directly attributable topjb, though influenced by said source. that, he, that I, is other than blind identified.as in blindman is not pjb.other than that i have no certainty or clarity.take home message: do your own diligence.ps. i can tell you “consciousness” isoverrated. get a good nights sleep andthen dream this life anew.

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 7:35 pm

I completely agree that this is manipulation of the quants via JPM and GS. They are the prime brokers for many, see the portfolios, bid on their trade baskets, and know their factor models and stops. When returns and risk are irrelevant there is no need for any consideration of fundamental value or trading dynamics. This is destroying the “market”.

PeterJBApril 18th, 2009 at 7:42 pm

“PeterJB,Off topic, but; for some time I wanted to ask your opinion of consciousness after death, but couldn’t find a way to ask you the question on your blog. Probably not relevant here, but…”@ hloweI have added a linked comments box to my Blog. Thank you for your interest and I am about to condense my next posting with the next few weeks. It will describe the coming major trend and a broad explanation of the physics of this occurrence. This will be, imo, optimism for everything Earthly which begins with the core Causes but, alas, brings no golden promises for the cherished static state of euphoria aka “status quo” that those of the ‘cult of economics’ – and all that institutionally hangs off it, are attempting to attain.Thank you again.kindest

HayesApril 18th, 2009 at 8:53 pm

sorry for all the links to ZH – but this chart is the best”the chart below demonstrates the various bailout programs (and key bailout players) sorted chronologically.”chart

HayesApril 18th, 2009 at 8:58 pm

and this from Ritholtz via Barron’s”Congrats to Zero Hedge for the prominent mention in Barron’s via Alan Abelson’s column:”http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/fingering-aig/http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124000857570530541.html

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 10:24 pm

Nice post Hayes, but I am wondering if there are a few items missing: for instance, BSC/JPM, Maiden Lane 1,2 & 3

GuestApril 18th, 2009 at 10:52 pm

so, looking the graph, market doesn’t fall to 0. it will rally up to test upper resistance trend line. if the test successfully break upside, then bear market is over. if the test fail, then downward channel continue. for now, we rally

PeterJBApril 18th, 2009 at 11:27 pm

(extract)July 29, 2006Global Economic Collapse – A New Global Dark AgeDateline: August 1, 2006Gold:* The world reserve currency concept is tied to the notion of a single all- powerful superpower. That is a 20th-century idea that is going away. It is also tied to the idea of a single economic powerhouse striding atop the rest of the world. That idea is also going away.* While Keynesians see the rise of gold as temporary – and will continue to assert their naysayer views as gold rises further – it will soon come to light that the ‘world reserve currency’ idea was the temporary thing; an anachronism of the industrial age.* Asia’s relative lack of capital market structure – its underdeveloped backbone of lending networks – will make a de facto gold standard that much more attractive. By going straight to gold, Asians get the “trust” that is already built into the metal…they can skip all the financial engineering, or get to working it in later.* Gold (and silver) has intrinsic value. Gold can also be bought on the streets of most Asian countries; by anyone.* Gold also steps up with a number of advantages. It is already regarded as a hard asset safe haven and a key barometer of financial anxiety. Its value is easily understood and appreciated by the masses. It can function without the need for a complex financial system to guide and regulate transactions.* Asia could well be the vanguard for a new gold standard because of internal dynamics. China is exemplary in this regard in that Chinese citizens regularly save as much as 40% of their personal income. This is in large part due to the lack of a safety net in China. This mindset strongly favors a physical, storable asset, like gold.* The price of gold is also being subjected to manipulation by major financial elements in what appears to be concerted and collaborative efforts.* And again, Asian personal savings are extremely high – across the board.http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2006/07/global-economic-collapse-new-global.htmlHo hum

MichelleApril 18th, 2009 at 11:28 pm

Anybody know what agency or firm is actually conducting these stress tests? Is it the FDIC only or are they receiving outside help from a firm such as Pimco? I think all you smart ones know precisely to what I’m alluding – that a company such as Pimco not only receives a huge fee for conducting these tests, but also gets an inside edge by viewing the contents of these 19 banks’ balance sheets. Absolute conflict of interest. This sham has got to end.

MarkApril 18th, 2009 at 11:58 pm

Financial news reporting is one of the few professions in America that allows its practitioners to enhance their reputations as experts by perfecting a record for failure.Priceless!Mark

GuestApril 19th, 2009 at 5:04 am

@ hlowe “consciousness after death…”Perhaps begin at Evolving Man August 16, 2005http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2005_08_14_archive.htmlBetter start with what Intelligence and intellect are prior to getting into consciousness and matters after the fact…Ho hum

AnonymousApril 19th, 2009 at 6:28 am

PeterJB, guys whaddaya think of this article….http://www.hizb.org.uk/hizb/pdfs/HT_Towards_a_Safe_Economy.pdfexcerpt:-The foundations upon which the capitalist system is built(1) Ideological creed: separation of religion from lifeThe limitation in human beings and their dependency on the Creator is natural and inherent in them.Man is in need of the Creator to organise the affairs of his life, as he is dependent on sanctification andworship. This is because man’s own organisation of his affairs is subject to change, contradiction, biasand difference. However, the capitalist system is negative with regards to the solution to man’s greatestproblem (belief in Allah and organising life by his legislation). The capitalist ideology separates religionfrom life, making belief in religion an individual matter, leaving every individual to adopt whatever beliefthey want. This conclusion was reached on the basis of the idea of compromise, and it means that thehuman thinkers and leaders legislate the system whereby life’s affairs will be organised.As a result, the West has fallen into spiritual decay and the purpose of life has become maximising one’sshare of sensual pleasures; this being understood also as the path to happiness. In turn the people spendtheir lives in a frenzied pursuit of satisfying their instincts and organic needs. Most of the capitalists havereached thereby the extreme in seeking satisfaction, having tried every evil, whilst it is painted to them asa good. To the extent that one of the major capitalist economists, speaking of the future of Capitalism inthe last century, said, “For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to everyonethat fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not.”By this ideology the capitalist finds himself in facing two dangerous situations:1. If he does not have enough money he naturally cannot completely satisfy all his needs. This pusheshim in most cases to frustration and despair, and in turn to psychiatric illnesses. Thus we find that thepsychiatrists in America for example have higher salaries than other medical practitioners. Some peoplealso react to this grim situation by trying to escape reality and society through crime, drugs and the like.2. In the case that he does have enough money to completely satisfy his needs and wants, then hebecomes exposed to live in a fatal vacuum which can lead to suicide or abnormal behaviour, or at thevery least to a worthless life of boring monotony. This is why we find that the proportion of suicide inthe West is much higher than anywhere else. Studies have shown that in France alone 160,000 peopleattempt suicide each year of which 32 are successful each day; most of them are youth.(2) Focus on the growth of wealth, instead of its distributionThe capitalist system focuses on the creation and growth of wealth instead of the distribution of wealthto the extent that growth is taken as something sacred and as a magical solution to economic problems,poverty in particular. Bernard Shaw, the European philosopher and critic, who was bald and had a thickbeard, said, “Capitalism is like this head of mine and this beard of mine: high in production and unjustin distribution.”The focus on growth in Capitalism is the result of wrongly defining the economic problem; a fallaciousconception with which it has deluded humanity, including those who are overwhelmed by it. Thecapitalists consider the scarcity of goods and services relative to human needs as the economic problem.That is that the limited goods and services are not sufficient to satisfy the unlimited needs of man. Bythis they make and assume a problem which has no solution! This incorrect diagnosis leads to an evenworse prescription: increasing the goods and services (production) so that everyone who has the wealthcan access them. As for those who do not have wealth, they do not satisfy their needs. Hence thecapitalists do not seek to completely satisfy the needs of each and every individual as they consider thisto be impossible, so they resort to increasing the total wealth; this is what they call ‘growth’. They forgetthat the economic requirement is to serve the society as a whole, not to subject the society to economicgrowth such that the wealth from this growth goes only to a few. And when the growth is achievedthrough loans, like the building of dams and roads, then the first to pay the bill is the majority of people,those who are poor and deprived from the benefit of that growth!

PhilTApril 19th, 2009 at 9:25 am

@Hayes “EU is not responding in a timely or meaningful fashion…”

German feelings for American president have oscillated from love to hate down the years. But is Obamamania just as dangerous as animosity towards Bush? It’s time for Germany to step off its collective and primal emotions and engage in a sober friendship with Washington.

Germany’s Miracle Man

economicminorApril 19th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

For what benefit? When you have so much more than you could ever possibly spend, what’s the point of sterilizing the ground that grows the food? Only smaller crops, if any at all.There is definitely some psychotic behavior going on. Self delusion leading to self destruction.Thanks PeteCA for the link and analysis. More grim reality… It just doesn’t make any real sense.

Farnorth5April 19th, 2009 at 6:14 pm

Well thanks SWK,it is true in my neck of the woods that people dont appreciate how much legal power the Corporations have and utilize on a daily basis.I have seen first hand examples in the field of environmental regulation, how the senior staff can safely ignore /defer compliance,all with the “assistance”of the companies solicitors.The Federal Regulation in the field of Finance and Environment isn,t worth spit in many cases.The law is simply ignored….

MarkApril 20th, 2009 at 1:24 am

Appraisers were pressured by builders to appraise at certain values. There was an article recently from down in Florida in which one appraiser spilled the beans about how a developer down there made sure he didn’t get any work after he refused to appraise the builder’s property higher.You’ve got to set your sights a bit higher. Follow the money; the corruption is spawned from the greatest concentrations of money.Mark

MarkApril 20th, 2009 at 1:27 am

Well, coming from someone on the west coast I guess I can understand your skepticism: I was once in weather in So Ca. It’s not real easy forecasting weather on the west coast (or east coast if you’re in the southern hemisphere).But weather forecasters’ aims aren’t to mislead or steal from folks.Mark

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