TOTALLY INCORRECT”The positive news is that there is light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s not going to be a coming depression train wreck. But that’s the only good news.”Laughable that 40-60 trillion dollars in necessary deleveraging can be overcome by a few trillion from our government.

This depression will be a painful learning experience for our current economic “elites”. Read Australian economist Steve Keen and the scale of this deleveraging and the hopeless thinking by Keynsian economists that government can fix this mess becomes clear.

@ Gloomy: Thanks for the reference to Steve Queen who is, amazingly, here in my backyard.”In fact what I think we’re going to have to wait on is basically the current set of policy makers abandoning all hope and certainly the political leaders abandoning hope in them before we’re going to see any sort of change around out of this crisis.Now as to how bad it’s going to get – you have to know what caused it in the first place to have any idea there. And this is again why you tend to get, “I don’t know” type answers from most economists—and that goes right up to and including people like Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman.The reason they don’t know is that their economic theory is the wrong one. They’ve got a model of how the economy operates and it’s got no relevance to the real world, you’re not going to understand what’s happening in the real world when somebody asks you a question about it. So I, for some years, have been arguing that economic theory as it’s being taught in universities and as is commonly believed, is an utterly fallacious view of how the world operates.”http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/04/13/talk-to-the-fabian-forum-the-global-financial-crisis-how-bad-will-it-get/This guy has it right so it could be correct that intelligence thrives in close proximity, after all;-)>.Ho hum

LOL .. sincere apologies a sort of er, err.thanks for pointing that out.

Gloomy thanks for the post-The Great Escape- hehe

Guest,You have highlighted a very major point. The biggest battle being waged is the battle for Keynesianism’s survival. This here, right now, is THE test for Keynes’ ideas. And that is all they are- theory. The theory goes that during periods of financial contraction, Govts can and should fill the breach- in this case with massive debt spending. This suites much of the currently officed Left Wing Govts in the OECD and G20 in their efforts to get re-elected.The run up in soverign debts trying to outspend the contraction in consumer spending is thus far like a speck on an elephants backside. You do the math. The outcome will be abject failure with the world’s citizens and generations to come financially ruined, devastated in debts taken on by their representatives.I am pleased, heartened even to see some people of the US start to resist this stupidity and more power to the Tea Parties.I wonder how much media attention it will receive though. I’m sure the PTB cringe at the thought of this movement gaining traction.

c,” Beware Greeks bearing gifts.”

can anyone post something recent from Ian Gordon.

I don’t see how Mr. Roubini(or really anyone) can be positive. Aren’t aggregate demand and world trade still collapsing? Anyone care to make a bet that U.S. March job losses will almost certainly be within 50,000 of 500,000?The administration is completely fudging the banks, nothing is really being dealt with, there’s no welfare state here in the U.S., so when UI runs out, that’s it for millions of people.So the idea is that things aren’t collapsing as fast as they were Q4, 2008 or Q1, 2009?

Apr 14th, 2009 – 00:38:23The Warren report: ‘Liquidate the banks and fire the executives!’By Mike WhitneyOnline Journal Contributing WriterApr 14, 2009, 00:20Last Tuesday, a congressional panel headed by ex-Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren released a report on Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s handling of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Warren was appointed to lead the five-member Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) in November by Senate majority leader Harry Reid. From the opening paragraph on, the Warren report makes clear that Congress is frustrated with Geithner’s so-called “Financial Rescue Plan” and doesn’t have the foggiest idea of what he is trying to do.Here are the first few lines of “Assessing Treasury’s Strategy: Six Months of TARP”: “With this report, the Congressional Oversight Panel examines Treasury’s current strategy and evaluates the progress it has achieved thus far. This report returns the Panel’s inquiry to a central question raised in its first report: What is Treasury’s strategy?”Six months and $1 trillion later, and Congress still cannot figure out what Geithner is up to. It’s a wonder the Treasury secretary hasn’t been fired already.From the report: “In addition to drawing on the $700 billion allocated to Treasury under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA), economic stabilization efforts have depended heavily on the use of the Federal Reserve Board’s balance sheet. This approach has permitted Treasury to leverage TARP funds well beyond the funds appropriated by Congress. Thus, while Treasury has spent or committed $590.4 billion of TARP funds, according to Panel estimates, the Federal Reserve Board has expanded its balance sheet by more than $1.5 trillion in loans and purchases of government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) securities. The total value of all direct spending, loans and guarantees provided to date in conjunction with the federal government’s financial stability efforts (including those of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as well as Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board) now exceeds $4 trillion.”So, while Congress approved a mere $700 billion in emergency funding for the TARP, Geithner and Bernanke deftly sidestepped the public opposition to more bailouts and shoveled another $3.3 trillion through the back door via loans and leverage for crappy mortgage paper that will never regain its value. Additionally, the Fed has made a deal with Treasury that when the financial crisis finally subsides, Treasury will assume the Fed’s obligations vis-a-vis the “lending facilities,” which means the taxpayer will then be responsible for unknown trillions in withering investments.From the report: “To deal with a troubled financial system, three fundamentally different policy alternatives are possible: liquidation, receivership, or subsidization. To place these alternatives in context, the report evaluates historical and contemporary efforts to confront financial crises and their relative success. The Panel focused on six historical experiences: (1) the U.S. Depression of the 1930s; (2) the bank run on and subsequent government seizure of Continental Illinois in 1984; (3) the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s and establishment of the Resolution Trust Corporation; (4) the recapitalization of the FDIC bank insurance fund in 1991; (5) Sweden’s financial crisis of the early 1990s; and (6) what has become known as Japan’s “Lost Decade” of the 1990s. The report also surveys the approaches currently employed by Iceland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and other European countries.”This statement shows that the congressional committee understands that Geithner’s lunatic plan has no historic precedent and no prospect of succeeding. Geithner’s circuitous Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) — which is designed to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets — is an end-run around “tried-and-true” methods for fixing the banking system. In the most restrained and diplomatic language, Warren is telling Geithner that she knows that he’s up to no good.From the report: “Liquidation avoids the uncertainty and open-ended commitment that accompany subsidization. It can restore market confidence in the surviving banks, and it can potentially accelerate recovery by offering decisive and clear statements about the government’s evaluation of financial conditions and institutions.”The committee agrees with the vast majority of reputable economists who think the banks should be taken over (liquidated) and the bad assets put up for auction. This is the committee’s number one recommendation.The committee also explores the pros and cons of conservatorship (which entails a reorganization in which bad assets are removed, failed managers are replaced, and parts of the business are spun off) and government subsidization, which involves capital infusions or the purchasing of troubled assets. Subsidization, however, carries the risk of distorting the market (by keeping assets artificially high) and creating a constant drain on government resources. Subsidization tends to create hobbled banks that continue to languish as wards of the state.Liquidation, conservatorship and government subsidization; these are the three ways to fix the banking system. There is no fourth way. Geithner’s plan is not a plan at all; it’s mumbo-jumbo dignified with an acronym, PPIP. The Treasury secretary is being as opaque as possible to stall for time while he diverts trillions in public revenue to his scamster friends at the big banks through capital injections and nutty-sounding money laundering programs like the PPIP.From the report: “Treasury’s approach fails to acknowledge the depth of the current downturn and the degree to which the low valuation of troubled assets accurately reflects their worth. The actions undertaken by Treasury, the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC are unprecedented. But if the economic crisis is deeper than anticipated, it is possible that Treasury will need to take very different actions in order to restore financial stability.”This is a crucial point; the toxic assets are not going to regain their value because their current market price — 30 cents on the dollar for AAA mortgage-backed securities — accurately reflects the amount of risk they bear. The market is right and Geithner is wrong; it’s that simple. Many of these securities are comprised of loans that were issued to people without sufficient income to make the payments. These “liar’s loans” were bundled together with good loans into mortgage-backed securities. No one can say with any certainty what they are really worth. Naturally, there is a premium for uncertainty, which is why the assets are fetching a mere 30 cents on the dollar. This won’t change no matter how much Geithner tries to prop up the market. The well has been already poisoned.Also, according to this month’s Case-Schiller report, housing prices are falling at the fastest pace since their peak in 2006. That means that the market for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will continue to plunge and the losses at the banks will continue to grow. The IMF recently increased its estimate of how much toxic mortgage-backed paper the banks are holding to $4 trillion.The banking system is underwater and needs to be resolved quickly before another Lehman-type crisis arises, sending the economy into a protracted Depression. Geithner is clearly the wrong man for the job. His PPIP is nothing more than a stealth rip-off of public funds which uses confusing rules and guidelines to conceal the true objective, which is to shift toxic garbage onto the public’s balance sheet while recapitalizing bankrupt financial institutions.So, why is Geithner being kept on at Treasury when his plan has already been thoroughly discredited and his only goal is to bail out the banks through underhanded means?That question was best answered by the former chief economist of the IMF, Simon Johnson, in an article which appeared in The Atlantic Monthly: “The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming . . . is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government — a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation; recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression we’re running out of time.” (The Atlantic Monthly, May 2009, by Simon Johnson)The banks have a stranglehold on the political process. Many of their foot soldiers now occupy the highest offices in government. It’s up to people like Elizabeth Warren to draw attention to the silent coup that has taken place and do whatever needs to be done to purge the moneylenders from the seat of power and restore representative government. It’s a tall order and time is running out.Watch Elizabeth Warren’s 8 minute video summary of the COP report.Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.Copyright © 1998-2007 Online Journal

update from ZH on quant deleveraging and its dire implicationsMerrill Let Loose On The Quant ScentPosted by Tyler Durden at 5:12 PMIn a report released yesterday, it is somewhat gratifying that Merrill Lynch analyst Mary Ann Bartels agrees with Zero Hedge conclusions about possible near-term market volatility events as a result of quant fund deleveraging.http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/merrill-set-loose-on-quant-scent.html

Keen also has this site (lots of good stuff to explore)http://www.debunking-economics.com/

companion article from the NY TimesThe Case of the Missing MonthI blogged the Goldman Sachs call this morning, starting at 7 a.m. The newest posts are at the top….http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-case-of-the-missing-month/

I find Keen’s Debtwatch charts absolutely rivoting. In fact, as I pointed out earlier, they are proof that the entire US economy rests on a Ponzi Debt Scheme. Keen shows that as buying on debt decreases, unemployment increases, simultaneously. And that regardless of pump priming, debt accumulation is swamping the government’s stimulus and unemployment is exploding. And,sadly, as Keen pointed out earlier, the USA no longer has productive capacity to employ those thrown into “unemployment via this debt-ridden collapse.” Below is the link given earlier by Gloomy, a vital link that explains why monetary stimulus isn’t working and “the economy will tank and unemployment will explode.”http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/04/09/whod-a-thought-it-unemployment-leaps-05-in-a-month/ (WITH CHARTS)That said, I find Keen’s theorizing in his talk to the Fabian Forum–“The Global Financial Crisis: How bad will it get?”–slightly mad. He so underplays the role of the Federal Reserve in its flagrant debasement of the U.S. dollar and Greenspan’s admission before he became Fed chairman that:“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.”Keen’s fails to give credit to Ludwig von Mises when asked “Who saw this coming?” He answered, “Hyman Minsky in the most recent history, and before him, Irving Fisher (Incidentally, to his cost, Fisher remained optimistic as the Great Crash of 1929 wore on. The Yale economics professor lost 11-12 million dollars personally during the Depression, including his home and lived out his life on the generosity of his sister-in-law.).As for Mises predicting the Depression, writes Austrian Economist Murray Rothbard:“Ludwig von Mises had predicted the depression during the heyday of the great boom of the 1920s—a time, just like today (1963), when economists and politicians, armed with a ‘new economics’ of perpetual inflation, and with new ‘tools’ provided by the Federal Reserve System, proclaimed a perpetual ‘New Era’ of permanent prosperity guaranteed by our wise economic doctors in Washington.”All American Investor in “Out of Keynes’s Shadow” gives this wrap up on Fisher: “Fisher died in 1947, a year after Keynes, and remains in his shadow. [Robert Dimand, an economist at Brock University in Canada, who has studied Fisher in depth] notes that Fisher never pulled the many strands of his thought together into a grand synthesis as Keynes did in “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”. More important, Keynes’s advocacy of aggressive fiscal policy overcame the limitations of Fisher’s purely monetary remedies for the Depression.”Yet Fisher’s insights remain vital. They have filtered, perhaps unconsciously, into the thinking of today’s policymakers. On February 8th [2009] Lawrence Summers, Mr. Obama’s principal economic adviser, called for the rapid passage of a fiscal stimulus ‘to contain what is a very damaging and potentially deflationary spiral.’ His advice bridges Fisher and Keynes.”It should be noted that Keen’s debunks Say’s Law, as Keynes did, using Marx, in this blog exchange:“There are many other aspects of the Austrian view that I reject, but these get into deeper issues about ‘theories of value’ and the like. I’ll simply quote Marx’s critique of Say’s Law here:‘It must never be forgotten, that in capitalist production what matters is not the immediate use-value but the exchange-value, and, in particular, the expansion of surplus-value. This is the driving motive of capitalist production, and it is a pretty conception that – in order to reason away the contradictions of capitalist production – abstracts from its very basis and depicts it as a production aiming at the direct satisfaction of the consumption of the producers.’ (Marx 1861: 495)“Austrians do see capitalism as ‘a production aiming at the direct satisfaction of the consumption of the producers’ and therefore fundamentally mistake its nature.”Says Wikipedia: “In economics, Say’s Law or Say’s Law of Markets is a principle attributed to French businessman and economist Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832) stating that production, or supply, inherently creates demand for what is produced. An important implication of Say’s Law is that recessions do not occur because of inadequate demand or lack of money. According to Say’s Law, the production of goods provides the means to the producers to purchase what is produced, and hence, demand will grow as supply grows. For this reason, prosperity should be increased by stimulating production, not consumption. Another implication of Say’s Law is that the creation of more money simply results in inflation; more money demanding the same quantity of goods does not create an increase in real demand.“Following John Maynard Keynes, modern Keynesian macroeconomists argue that Say’s Law only applies when prices are fully flexible. In the short run, when prices are not flexible, a drop in aggregate demand can cause a recession.”Long ago, Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973 wrote, in “Lord Keynes and Say’s Law”:“Lord Keynes’s main contribution did not lie in the development of new ideas but ‘in escaping from the old ones,’ as he himself declared at the end of the Preface to his ‘General Theory.’ The Keynesians tell us that his immortal achievement consists in the entire refutation of what has come to be known as Say’s Law of Markets. The rejection of this law, they declare, is the gist of all Keynes’s teachings; all other propositions of his doctrine follow with logical necessity from this fundamental insight and must collapse if the futility of his attack on Say’s Law can be demonstrated.“Now it is important to realize that what is called Say’s Law was in the first instance designed as a refutation of doctrines popularly held in the ages preceding the development of economics as a branch of human knowledge. It was not an integral part of the new science of economics as taught by the Classical economists. It was rather a preliminary—the exposure and removal of garbled and untenable ideas which dimmed people’s minds and were a serious obstacle to a reasonable analysis of conditions…”Mises follows with a detailed account of Say’s Law with this conclusion:”Say emerged victoriously from his polemics with Malthus and Sismondi. He proved his case, while his adversaries could not prove theirs. Henceforth, during the whole rest of the nineteenth century, the acknowledgment of the truth contained in Say’s Law was the distinctive mark of an economist. Those authors and politicians who made the alleged scarcity of money responsible for all ills and advocated inflation as the panacea were no longer considered economists but ‘monetary cranks.’“The struggle between the champions of sound money and the inflationists went on for many decades. But it was no longer considered a controversy between various schools of economists. It was viewed as a conflict between economists and anti-economists, between reasonable men and ignorant zealots. When all civilized countries had adopted the gold standard or the gold-exchange standard, the cause of inflation seemed to be lost forever.“Economics did not content itself with what [Adam] Smith and Say had taught about the problems involved. It developed an integrated system of theorems which cogently demonstrated the absurdity of the inflationist sophisms. It depicted in detail the inevitable consequences of an increase in the quantity of money in circulation and of credit expansion. It elaborated the monetary or circulation credit theory of the business cycle which clearly showed how the recurrence of depressions of trade is caused by the repeated attempts to ‘stimulate’ business through credit expansion. Thus it conclusively proved that the slump, whose appearance the inflationists attributed to an insufficiency of the supply of money, is on the contrary the necessary outcome of attempts to remove such an alleged scarcity of money through credit expansion.”http://mises.org/story/1803Keen’s in his talk to the Fabian Forum shows a genius and high respect for debt. He states and issues proof that “99% of the increase in the debt ratio can be explained simply by saying debt grows 4.2% faster than GDP.” He continues, “Now, that is an impossible situation to maintain indefinitely because ultimately your debt is going to be a hundred times your GDP and of course you can’t service that amount no matter what interest rates are. It’s going to have to change direction…we,therefore, I think, face a crisis which is bigger than the Great Depression and of which our managers of the economy have less of an idea of how the economy functions, than we had back in 1929.”Well, I agree wholeheartedly with most of Keen’s and absolutely with his barebone conclusion. But I find it difficult to arrive there on the basis of his economic mentors.

Interesting post. Thanks especially for the reference to the Johnson article in next month’s issue of The Atlantic.SWK

I was just preparing to send your esteemed oratory to have it bound in leather for all of posterity, to slip it into my bookcase next to the great Daniel Webster, when I noticed the word… “crap.”

Huh. I thought the tea parties were more about the taxation without representation aspect, in reference to the original paulson bank bailout and various other bailouts and stimulus plans. I was under the impression that people didn’t feel that their representatives in government were representing them properly, and that people had issues with their kids, grandkids, and great-grandkids having to pay for recklessness that they had no part in creating. Frankly, I think people wouldn’t have nearly as much of an issue with paying taxes, even higher taxes, if they felt confident that their taxes were being used responsibly. I guess I must have misunderstood what the tea parties were all about, eh?

Unbelievable timely supporting documentation:

The Detroit automaker needs a cooperative union to build its cars and trucks once the automaker is restructured and that gives workers more leverage than other claimants, the people said, who asked not to be named because plans aren’t set. GM is seeking the cuts to keep $13.4 billion in U.S. loans and win more aid as it restructures.“The bondholders are getting excoriated in the press as the evil people that are holding up the process,” said Evan Flaschen, chair of the financial restructuring group at Bracewell & Giuliani LLP in New York, who isn’t involved in the case. “It’s easy to cast them in a bad light versus the employees you need to run the business going forward.”…The bondholders believe they are protected by the bankruptcy code from being given worse treatment than other creditors, such as the unions, and will fight a proposal they find unfair, the person said….The U.S. bankruptcy code allows for workers to get preference over bondholders, said Richard Hahn, co-chair of the bankruptcy practice at Debevoise & Plimpton LLP, a New York law firm, who is not involved in the GM negotiations.Section 1114 of the bankruptcy code requires that a debtor “timely pay” all “retiree benefits” unless the bankruptcy court orders otherwise or the authorized representative of the recipients of those benefits agrees to other treatment, he said.“The size and scope of what’s at stake here is so profound, I’m not aware of any precedents,” Bracewell Giuliani’s Flaschen said. “Because of that, do you want to be the bankruptcy judge that shuts down GM? The bondholders’ basic argument is ‘It’s not fair’ and that is a legitimate argument. I don’t know that that will carry through the deal.”Full Bloomberg article

This is going to get fugly! There goes the bond bubble!

Actually, the interesting thing for me about this is that someone actually held a “Night with the Bears” event and lots of people showed up.That’s some pretty negative investor sentiment there.

From YvesUS Decides to Disclose (Some) Results From Stress Tests”Do you notice the logic at work here, “rumored to be weakest”? Again, the powers that be believe this is all a matter of perception. It never seems to occur to them that some of the banks really might be in very bad shape.”"So it looks like Goldman defied orders”"That comes pretty close to saying the Feds don’t buy Wells’ earnings release. That’s serious, and consistent with analyst views.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/us-decides-to-disclose-some-results.html

Depression Lurks Unless There’s More Stimulus: Robert Shillerhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_shiller&sid=abXAaO4xI704

To say there will be no depression is ridiculous. We are going to have a massive depression. He is so enamored with Keynes that he can’t see the big picture.

Your point is well taken there. We all become frustrated from time to time by what we perceive to be wasteful spending by government.We don’t need to throw out the baby with the bath water just because the baby wastes water by splashing in the bath. We can’t drain the bath tub so low that the baby doesn’t get clean, either, just to eliminate splashing, some of which will occur even if we put less water in the tub. The adult thing to do is to try to teach the baby not to splash so much, and when splashing occurs, as it inevitably will, to get a towel and dry it up.SWK

I think California will see at least 50% if not 65%….California to take housing debacle’s worst fall, minus-50%!April 13th, 2009, 12:07 am · 103 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.comIf economists at IHS Global Insight are correct, California housing will suffer the harshest fall in the real estate debacle.IHS expects California home prices to fall by half — OK, 49.9% — from their peak in second quarter of 2006 to their bottom in the first quarter of 2011 — that’s two years from now!. That will be the nation’s biggest decline measured by final drop off each state’s respective peak. Nevada, by the way, will be second worst at 48%.IHS’ Jeannine Cataldi, managing director of real estate services, says California’s housing market “will have to wait to bottom … It going to take a while.”link to article and chart: http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/13/calif-to-take-worst-fall/18773/

Israel Threatens Attack On Iran’s Nuclear SitesHow can anyone safely invest in this kind of “climate.”

Money SupplyRevised numbers show that growth in M3 has stalled for Jan-Mar 2009!?! Moreover, the Gubmit’s CPI-U has gone negative. Once in a life-time stuff. I will post more detailed numbers when I get a chance.

an interesting post this AM from ZH re his theory on a coming market dislocation due to massive deleveraging in the quant funds:

JPMorgan Early Look at the Market-4.15.09————-ZeroHedge has been talking about a sharp reduction in HF’s exposure to the market over the last few weeks, esp. quant funds; this reduction could lead to a spike in volatility as liquidity drains.http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/merrill-set-loose-on-quant-scent.html

Shadow Government Attracts Shadow ProtestersUNDISCLOSED LOCATION— Decrying various unspecified aspects of the U.S. Shadow Government, an indeterminate number of Shadow Protesters gathered outside the organization’s mountain retreat, sealed germ-free vault, or underground bunker, on Monday. “We unfortunately cannot comment on our feelings about the Shadow Government at this time,” said an unnamed protester, neither confirming nor denying reports that he or she accused the Shadow Government of violating the U.S. Constitution. After 20 minutes of protest, the group was dispersed by members of the Shadow Secret Service, who used “means at their disposal.”http://www.theonion.com/content/node/31283

Survivalist EconomicsCheck out what market segments are experiencing growth.

The economic foundation we currently have CANNOT support the economic future we want! Stimulus is just taking future fruits and appling them to past failures. Do you somehow think that we are ever going to catch up?

While it is a well-used saying, I think comparing the government and taxation with a baby tends to imply an innocence and naivete that really cannot be applied to the former. However, working with your comparison, in teaching the baby not to splash, one would normally speak softly and simply to begin with. If the baby pays no attention, one might raise one’s voice and hold onto its hands while seeking its eyes so as to be assured that the baby recognizes that the adult wishes to communicate something to it.And I can assure you that I, as a mother, would never continually allow my baby to splash water all over me and the floor, potentially doing long-term water damage to the floor and items around it. Of course, I would never throw the baby out with the bathwater, but there is such a thing as sponge baths, not to mention that I would have the option of protecting everything from the water or moving the bath to a place where the water-splashing wouldn’t hurt anything–I could even take the baby into a bath or shower with me in order to bathe it.Obviously, I cannot speak for anyone else, but for me, the tea parties appear to represent one possible means of gaining the baby’s attention. Perhaps you were speaking of a specific group which actively seeks to abolish government or taxation, but I was under the impression that this is not what many people are seeking to do by demonstrating. They are simply trying to speak louder, as it is difficult to restrain this particular baby’s hands, and impossible to move it to a place where it does less damage.Incidentally, I think most people are somewhat resigned to the usual wasteful government spending. But truly, to me, this has gone miles over the line of being considered merely ‘wasteful’.We all have our own opinions, of course. As much as mine might differ from yours, I appreciate the discussion and your viewpoints.

good story, but for me it’s interesting that people are just now developing a desire to cultivate these skills. I’m Mormon, and these are things that we’re taught from birth – and not as an Apocalyptic exercise. We just think it’s important to be self-sufficient – something the article says is catching on!

Great Post!

CREDIT CARD USERS-BEWARE! I have just found out that most in not all of the major credit card companies have been drastically lowering people’s credit card limits whether or not you have a high credit score, an excellent payment history and especially if you make a full payment every month! The charming customer service rep says “it is perfectly legal for the banks to do this, even if you are standing in line with a cart of groceries and your card won’t go through because of a drop in your credit limit” and “we legally don’t have to notify the customer of this until 7-10 days later by mail!!! I asked her if she felt this was ethical or not and her response was “you should not count on your credit line because it can be changed at any time and although she feels bad for me, she needs her job!!!” This is another example of the blatant abusive power our Govt has given the banks over us and will continue until they squeeze every last cent out of the public.

Agreed! How many of these attendees understand that the bailouts are responsible for limiting unemployment and thus keeping a roof over their head? The fact that some of the news outlets are able to convince them to support the top 5% by protesting against higher taxes is sad. Also, they don’t seem to realize the previous administration is responsible in large degree for our dire situation.As for the http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/mentioned above, seems to be riddled with false assumptions, while talking the author up. For example; I believe Roubini understands his great depression history. And if over the last 8 years taxes were not cut, spending increased while the fed helped to blow the real estate bubble, we would not be facing these terrible times. While I like much of what Austrian types have to offer, I must say they have missed much over the last year, Yet Roubini has been very accurate.hlowe

I wish I could find the link but the other thing the card companies are doing is monitoring an individuals purchase patterns from a socio-economic perspective e.g. an indication of potential financial distress for example changes from Saks to WalMart – liquor purchases etc…

Check John Hussman’s commentaries at http://www.hussmanfunds.com . Especially read his last two articles. The most recent article is on his main Web page. You need to check the archives for the week before that. The earlier article has the chart showing when all these option-ARM and adjustable rate mortgages become ticking time bombs. From memory, I think the problem (re-setting rates) starts ramping up pretty significantly in mid-2009. And yes, there will be a major new impact on mortgages and foreclosures when this happens. Think that Mr Geithner doesn’t know this? – you bet he does. It’s no mistake that Geithner’s on a rampage with this latest PPIP plan (or whatever it is) to try to rescue the Wall St. banks now, before the new carnage hits the streets in the latter half of 2009.PeteCA

Would be nice to see some charts on CDS spreads for the banks. Do you know a link?PeteCA

Averting Depression as Consumer in U.S. Fades: Stephen Roachhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag6fYs90r3vk

Thank-you SWK! My sentiments exactly.

r,it appears that your post was one minute andone second after the post above.that apparent fact freightens me.

Not all crooks are behind bars, and not all behind bars are crooks

Oh, Armstrong’s probably no choir boy — the vast majority of those behind bars are at least guilty of having broken the law, and are not infrequently morally corrupt — but that doesn’t mean any argument he puts forth is necessarily wrong. I would, however, scrutinize it especially carefully, especially with respect to any underlying postulates he might put forth as being true.SWK

Is anybody else having trouble running the “video and interviews from the Night with Bears event in Canada”. How do you get it to work?