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Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate Audience Blames Washington More Than Wall Street for Financial Crisis

On Tuesday this author participated in an Intelligence Squared debate on whether the Washington should be blamed more than Wall Street for the financial crisis. The author sided – together with Niall Ferguson and John Gordon Steele – with the view that Washington should be blamed more than Wall Street even if – as I agreed – many bankers and investors were greedy, incompetent and taking excessive risk. The audience of 700 sided with our side in a vote at the end of the debate. But maybe the fact that the debate took place in New York – with the audience having many financial market participants biased the results on our side; if the same debate had taken place in Washington probably a majority of that wonk city crowd would have blamed more Wall Street. And while I emphasized the flaws of poor regulation and supervision and easy money and credit policies I could have certainly argued for the other view as arrogance, excessive risk-taking and greed was widespread among the Masters of the Universe of Wall Street.

The full transcript of this debate is available online at this link; the debate will also be broadcast in a few days on National Public Radio. Here is below a press release on this debate and its main themes and results followed by a brief commentary on the debate by John Fund of the WSJ:

NEW YORK – (Business Wire) Intelligence Squared U.S., the Oxford-style debate series sponsored by The Rosenkranz Foundation, announced the results of its third debate of the Spring 2009 season, “Blame Washington more than Wall Street for the financial crisis.” Though both sides agreed that there was plenty of blame to go around, the sold-out crowd sided overwhelmingly with the proponents of the motion—a team led by “Dr. Doom,” economist Nouriel Roubini—voting 60% for the proposition, 31% against, with 9% remaining undecided.

The evening began with a pre-debate vote that found nearly a third of the audience at The Rockefeller University’s Caspary Auditorium open to persuasion, with 40% voting for, 30% against, and 28% undecided.

But not everyone was convinced by the outcome. Byron Wien, a former managing director at Morgan Stanley, explained the vote results to the Wall Street Journal this way: “I think Wall Street deserves by far the largest share of the blame, and I think this is a home-town crowd that’s unwilling to see that.”

Speaking for the motion were Niall Ferguson, professor of history at Harvard University; John Steele Gordon, author of An Empire of Wealth; and Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor.

Alex Berenson, investigative reporter for the New York Times; Jim Chanos, famed short seller and founder of Kynikos Associates; and Nell Minow, editor and co-founder of The Corporate Library spoke against the motion.

John Donvan, correspondent for ABC News Nightline, moderated.

A full transcript of this debate will be available at http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org/Event.aspx?Event=38.

Key comments from this debate included:

“[Greenspan] has been a creator of serial bubbles one after the other and when people expect to be bailed out then they behave accordingly, that’s the Greenspan put. We created a system which people expect, that the gains are going to be privatized, and the losses are going to be socialized; this is a welfare state for the rich, for the well-connected and for Wall Street. That’s what happened, that’s public policy.” — Nouriel Roubini

“Well, just because the Keystone Kops couldn’t catch the gang that couldn’t shoot straight, doesn’t absolve that gang from its guilt, in not only looting the system with material intent but materially abrogating their fiduciary responsibility to their clients and the nation.” – Jim Chanos

“This symbiotic and indeed corrupt relationship between Wall Street and Washington is the thing that is rotten at the heart of the United States, it is the principal explanation for this crisis, and that brings me to the key question you have to ask yourselves. Who has to defend the public interest. Is it the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers, or is it your elected representatives. Ladies and gentlemen, it is perfectly clear, that it is Washington that has failed to defend the public interest, and I fear, it is continuing to fail to do so.” – Niall Ferguson

People on the other side have been saying that Wall Street took their checkbooks down to Washington and lobbied to get the regulation they wanted rather than stricter regulation. And actually said, therefore, Congressmen were the victims of this. I’m sorry, but Wall Street was not debauching a virgin, it was paying a harlot.” – John Steele Gordon

To view transcripts and videos or learn more about Intelligence Squared U.S. please visit: http://www.intelligencesquaredus.org.

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The Financial Crisis: Whodunit? By John H. Fund, 3/18/2009 9:18:33 AM

An Oxford-style debate held last night at New York’s Rockefeller University featured an argument over whether Washington or Wall Street “was more to blame for the financial crisis.” Before the program began, the 700 audience members voted to pin Washington with more of the onus by 42% to 30%, with 28% undecided. After spirited exchanges between six debaters, the post-debate vote was a knockout against the Beltway — 60% fingered the nation’s capital with more of the blame, with only 31% choosing Wall Street.

Last night’s debate was joined early when historian Niall Ferguson listed four entities he said played a major role in the financial collapse — the Federal Reserve, the SEC, Congress and the White House. “You will note all of them have addresses that end with Washington, D.C.,” he concluded. The opposing team was led by Nell Minow of the Corporate Library, a research firm that rates boards of directors on corporate governance issues. She tripped up in the eyes of many by claiming that campaign contributions from Wall Street to naive Washington politicians meant that the nation’s capital was “a victim” in the financial meltdown.

At a post-debate dinner, Byron Wein, a former managing director at Morgan Stanley who is now with Pequot Capital Management, expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome of the audience vote. “I think Wall Street deserves by far the largest share of the blame, and I think this is a home-town crowd that’s unwilling to see that,” he told me. But he acknowledged that “there’s a lot of anti-Washington sentiment out there right now” so the result might have been much the same in the nation’s heartland.

Nouriel Roubini, the famous “Dr. Doom” who predicted parts of the economic collapse, was also philosophical in not reading too much into the vote. “I could have argued the other side of the proposition,” he told me. “There are grays here and not just black and white. Enough blame to go around.”

The debate was part of the Intelligence Squared series, which began in Britain in 2002 and came to the U.S. in 2006 courtesy of the Rosenkranz Foundation. Since its inception, 26 debates have been held batting around such topics as “George W. Bush is the worst president of the last 50 years” to “the art market is less ethical than the stock market.”

John Fund is an editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal. Subscribe to his political diary today at http://www.opinionjournal.com

260 Responses to “Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate Audience Blames Washington More Than Wall Street for Financial Crisis”

Mother of GodMarch 19th, 2009 at 6:33 pm

This is Mother of God’s final post.If there is anyone here who wishes to contact me, especially anyone who has further questions about the elegant and easy solutions to 99% of unnecessary human suffering offered by the survival and happiness campaign for pay justice, you can write to an account I just set up to receive your mails.payjustice@fastmail.fm

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 6:50 pm

Why you’re making an amazing contribution, please reconsider you’re very valued and influential.

Little SaverMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:07 pm

Blame both. As they are the products of their society, blame their society. Methinks, a take-what-you-can-get society asks for this kind of leadership. In hindsight, everything went as could have been expected. It is back to basics, I think. Reformulation of goals and ends, no less. End of this road. Time to look for another one.

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:09 pm

Why the insistence of “Trickle down economics”. All of the bailouts or 90% of the spending has been given to the creditors who are then supposed to open their coffers and “loan” the money out to people and get the economy started-what’s wrong with that picture?Why can’t they save the economy and system from the bottom up through debt forgiveness or new job creation? Trickle down economics is a failed theory yet they continue forcing it on us like a square peg in a round hole. I’m convinced the FED is a devious way to spend tax payers money freely and is a “trickle down economic scam”.

Little SaverMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:14 pm

They formulate ist as trickle down economics while they mean sucking up economics. Top minority sucking, working majority producing and paying.

Jason BMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

Come on, wise up. Trickle down was bogus from the start. The rich don’t get and stay rich by letting money get throught their fingers. It was always a handout to the rich and powerful. If they wanted to get money to the people, they would raise the minimum wage and provide childcare and health insurance.Corporations pay out money in wages, taxes, and executive compensation (also dividends and buybacks). During the last 20 years, wages and taxes have gone down. What happened then to executive compensation?

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

Talk about a false dichotomy. Wall Street buys LOTS of influence in Washington. They help pick the winners.A pointless debate.

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:22 pm

Re-post from the end of the last thread. I think it fits here better than there.subgenius wrote:The problem with the world economy, ‘free market capitalism’ (Hah!), the so-called ‘bail outs’ (Hah!), AIG bonuses, Wall Street chicanery and a host of other financial debacles is so utterly intrinsic to our human nature that a massive extinction event is probably the only thing that will cure it.(That light we see in the tunnel is not on oncoming train, it is Darwinian enlightenment.)The tragically false belief is that there is anything, in this mercilessly physical universe, even remotely akin to “profit” (used in the sense of gaining more from an investment than was put into it by all involved parties in the first place.) It’s a concept comparable to a ‘perpetual motion machine’, and if you think such a device is possible then I would would like to sell you shares in a company that says they hold the patent.Certainly there is successful theft (which can be made to look like profit, especially if you own a few newspapers and TV studios.)Just as certainly there can be delusion based on promises of ‘profit’ (just ask Mr. Ponzi.)There can even be hope of profit, as attested by widespread faith in the magical “Unseen Hand” of the marketplace.But, alas, there is no such thing as financial profit.I refer all engineers [and arm chair financiers] to the physical law known as Conservation of Energy, and its firstborn son, the First Law of Thermodynamics.To know that those principles are true in the realm of physics (and petroleum extraction) and nevertheless hold simultaneously to the belief that they do not apply to money… well, it’s just sad.Think of commerce as a cup, and all human activity as a quantity placed in the cup for later use. One can get from that cup exactly as much as was put into it, minus a some evaporation, a little spoilage and a few minor spills “Twixt cup and lip.”That’s it, and that’s all.The rest is flim flam designed to separate victims from what they have labored to put into their own cups. But a piece of advice to novice Capitalists: don’t call it flim flam and theft. That just alerts the marks and makes ‘em cautious. Call it Economics and Profit.(Hat-tip to D.Benton_Smith @ TOD, from whom I stole this…)

2centsMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:31 pm

Nouriel,These quotes:

“[Greenspan] has been a creator of serial bubbles one after the other and when people expect to be bailed out then they behave accordingly, that’s the Greenspan put. We created a system which people expect, that the gains are going to be privatized, and the losses are going to be socialized; this is a welfare state for the rich, for the well-connected and for Wall Street. That’s what happened, that’s public policy.” — Nouriel Roubini“This symbiotic and indeed corrupt relationship between Wall Street and Washington is the thing that is rotten at the heart of the United States, it is the principal explanation for this crisis, and that brings me to the key question you have to ask yourselves. Who has to defend the public interest. Is it the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers, or is it your elected representatives. Ladies and gentlemen, it is perfectly clear, that it is Washington that has failed to defend the public interest, and I fear, it is continuing to fail to do so.” – Niall Ferguson

say quite a bit about what the modulus operandi is. The underlying assumption becomes that it is Wall Street’s nature to take all it can and it’s up to DC to play cop. That means we are not going to hold Wall St. to any modicum of morality. That in turn means that we are expecting DC to provide that moral check. Call me skeptical, but I don’t think that’s a attribute of any politician.My point is that if we do concede that it is a DC problem, then I think it behooves us to recognize that our form of government is not designed to manage Wall St. in the best interests of the American people. We would need major adjustment to our governing framework.I’m not saying I necessarily disagree with you, but it begs the question what if anything can be done about it if you do agree it’s DCs fault!

Litlle SaverMarch 19th, 2009 at 7:38 pm

No, we’re not talking about a closed system here (a ‘cup’ where you can’t get more out than was put in). It is a giant open system, based on a constant influx of energy provided by the sun. If, and only if that energy is used in a constructive way (as in the past few billion years of evolution), something new and exciting can be constructed. If used in a destructive way, the chance of exciting results won’t be so great…The potential is there. Question is: how to best use this enormous natural potential. Hint: greed alone as basic principle doesn’t look so promising to me. Something more is needed… Further hints are welcome.

devils advocateMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:16 pm

some thoughts and observations:standing on line, lady in front of me says: “we go to Europe every year (obviously well-off),but we’re not going this year”…”we emigrated so many times from Hungary, from Venezuela and now (from the USA)?going to cash …Nouriel is correct in saying that people will sell their stocks as they go upsince they are SCARED (at least the smart ones with money)…and many people are scared into a herd like response…go to cash…some are buying stocks, but only a minority and probably the majority will “win”economists are not targeting and measuring the psychology, the confidence factor …even Nouriel is just guessing…without science Nouriel is working with distant numbers distantfrom the way people are feeling and responding…plus just heresaythe “science” of economics is just like a blind man feeling his way around peopleinstead of seeing the people

JamesMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:17 pm

And when taxes went down, it was the companies who pocketed that money by stagnating wages. It wasn’t a case of the people getting to keep “more of their money”, as was told to them, it was a case of businesses saying “that’s mine, thank you very much!”

ArmchairMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:21 pm

Does the debate take into consideration the banking lobbyist? He is paid by New York to work in DC? Which city would she or he belong to?

Amar HarolikarMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:29 pm

True. Too many greys here. Difficult to lay the blame on any single stakeholder. This was like a multiple organ failure. The failures started small – but picked up momentum. Akin to a small rolling pebble becoming a full fledged landslide.Amar Harolikarhttp://taxationindia.blogspot.com/

FEDupMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:32 pm

TAKE YOUR MONEYPrimary modus operandi of our govt and wall street is the same: devise ever more sinister and clandestine ways to take our money: have you ever noticed that when you think a stock or commodity is going to go up, it usually goes down and when you think it will go down it goes up? When you are wrong more times than you are right, they take your money. So when you are enticed to use credit cards, take out variable interest loans, buy a house(s) with less than 20% down, etc, they eventually take your money. When the govt is now encouraging you to spend when you should be saving, guess what they are trying to do? And when the big and powerful get into trouble after years of record profits, our govt says, we have no choice but to bail them out: again, they take our money. So the first step towards freeing oneself from a system which is perfectly designed to take your money is to do the exact opposite of what most people are doing and what you are being tempted to do.

ArmchairMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:40 pm

Finally, a fresh comment thread for people getting home from work out on the West Coast.From my view on the West Coast: NY, DC and LA control the country. NY and DC blend together for me. Companies like GS, Citi, AIG, MS all seem to woven into the fabric of NY and DC. The news about the Fed and the Wallstreet appears on the same page of the papers from what I see in the morning.The difference between LA and NY has always been good material for comedians.For me, I guess the difference between NY and DC in the current round of history is that DC is much more tragic. Wall Street pushed the government into changing all the laws, regulations and policies, but DC was weak and there weren’t enough people with integrity to push back. It is sad when a nation can’t find leaders with integrity.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 19th, 2009 at 8:46 pm

I am going to give a forecast of what is going to happen over the next 18-24 months on the state of the global economy after the actions of the Fed 2 days ago.What the Fed did was essentially a declaration of economic war against its creditors. The following will happen in the coming months:1) countries unwilling to break from the US$ will print money to maintain their exchange rates, thereby creating hyperinflation for themselves2) Countries that will break with the US will dump their dollars and raise their protectionist gates3) The monetisation of debt will continue at an accelerated pace as less buyers of agencies and treasuries would mean the Fed has to back stop all issuance.4) at some point, the US will use its military card.I expect some sort of reaction from China over the next 2 weeks before G20. I expect to see Japanese pension funds start to panic. I expect the Middle East to accelerate the ME single currency with a basket peg. There will be implications for how oil is traded. The budget deficit of the US will be much bigger than budgeted as tax revenues collapse, increasing issuance of more treasuries, with no buyers. There will be a vicious cycle of monetisation as the Fed tries to cap interest rates in the face of collapsing FX and reversal of investment flows into the US. I will not be surprised to see the Fed balance sheet to be 45% of the GDP before the year is out.The initial phase of deflation will be pushed into inflation in the next 6 months and hyperinflation by end 2010 as continued monetisation of debt causes loss of faith in the US$. Before 2009 is out, the world will NOT be using the US$ as a transactional currency which also means that it will no longer be the world reserve currency. This will be led by global trade partneres (not the US) deciding among themselves to settle in other currencies. At some point, the US will be forced to sell US$ to get foreign currencies to pay for its imports.WTO is dead. We have just entered the age of Protectionism.The global economy will be entering a multiyear depression which will probably end in a war, which will start somewhere in the Middle East as the US seeks to find resource reserves to support its currency.March 18, 2009 will be marked as the day the world took the path to WW3.If I sound depressed, that is because I am. It is sad to see the world go down this path and we all just have to prepare for it.

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:08 pm

everyday, Obama is delivering new BAILOUT to this and that institutions in the name not TBTF but will not let anyone to fail. Obama and his administration is out of their mind.

blind de miloMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:14 pm

da,since you called me out….?. ( this one is good ) sited last year. worth thinking about fora moment or two. video..”A man left clinically blind by a stroke was able to perfectly navigate an obstacle course. Yet he had no idea he was doing it.”.http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=98590831.there is that…and then there is this….http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18487511.“….It’s an experience manufactured by his hallucinating brain. But rather than be spooked by these phantoms, he wants more of them. It’s as though, having been deprived of sight, he has figured out a final end run and instead of seeing from the outside in, he now sees from the inside out……”.freedom and options. who cares who is to blame at this point? whowill fix it? one of the two parties mentioned? (wash..ing wall st.?) not likely. the people or the market? perhaps. yes. ultimately it will be back inthose laps. institutional failure is deflation and the ruins remain for the people and what is, that is, our vision. the vision based on something from inside. the cause, verbe, resulting in something we cansee with the eye. warped into existence. savy?ps. apologies to those not sited or misrepresented. liberties being what they will be. please correct if appropriate.

ptmMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:19 pm

FLASH UPDATE – March 18, 2009 – JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS – FLASH UPDATE – March 18, 2009 – Annual CPI-U Inches Higher to 0.24% (SGS 7.7%) – Housing Starts Annual Plunge at Historic ExtremeEveryone is talking deflation as an established fact, yet not even the gimmicked BLS numbers can get down to 0% for the second straight month. Meanwhile, using the BLS’ own 1980s non-gimmicked measures, inflation is running a whopping 7.7%!This also demonstrates just how gimmicked the CPI-U really is: the CPI-U understates real inflation by a minimum of 7.5%.Cannot trust Wall Street Bankers, investors like Madoff, that slimy smelly stuff that one steps into and sticks to the bottom of your shoe (Jim Cramer), the rating agencies owned by the big banks, the Goldman Sachs revolving door at the Fed and Treasury, the claimed $1.2 trillion debt monetization, and now the same BLS bullsh*t from the democrats as the republicans. It’s obvious someone higher up the food chain is running the government. The buck may stop with Obama, but the Federal Reserve Note goes higher up.We are caught in a true nightmare where the bad guys are chasing you, but you are running in place. To see more clearly what I mean, look at these three videos in sequence:FDR Ends Gold Standard in 1933 This happened 76 years ago, yet it’s the same justification we are hearing today! We must stabilize our economy with inflation.1933 pro-inflation propaganda movie theatre trailer Obama has yet to pull this rabbit out of the hat, but I guarantee he will use these same bizarre talking points before the end of 2009.Nixon Ends Bretton Woods International Monetary System Nixon blames the USA’s excessive debt on the red herring international foreign exchange traders and sends the country into accelerated inflation!The latest version of NDR’s gross debt-to-GDP ratio See that little “plateau” at the peak in 1933? Well, that’s where we are today except the ratio has jumped from 260 to 360.dshort’s four-bears chart Even though this chart is more of a “economic depth-finder” than anything else it sums up the whole nightmare. (It’s also updated daily.)

Guest O BLAH MAMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:34 pm

http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson03182009.html.Bait and SwitchThe Real AIG ConspiracyBy MICHAEL HUDSON……” ..And popular opposition has been rising to how Obama and McCain could have banded together to support the bailout that, in retrospect, amounts to trillions and trillions of dollars thrown down the drain. Not really down the drain at all, of course – but given to financial speculators on the winning “smart” side of AIG’s bad financial gambles.”

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:40 pm

And now $5 billion goes to auto parts makers. Oh, my god, is this what we are paying our taxes for? Why the US illiterates have elected such corrupt politicians in the Congress, whose only job is to transfer our money to corporate america, and put corporate america’s political/other bribes in their own/personal pockets? Someone, above, rightly said: these corrupt corporates do not give money to corrupt politicians for free. Politicians are like HARLOTS. The politicians spread out their legs in return for corporate money. Shame on corrupt WH, the Congress, the department secretaries, and the Helicopter Bank.

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:55 pm

Yes sir, tax revenues will be poor this year for sure. Barter is growing and so goes the State and Local sales tax. Let’s see, I think it’s a day’s wage for a loaf of bread, that would be hyperinflation, and the war would be Armageddon, its sounds right. Hang in their brother, dodge the draft that’s coming and grow you a garden and let the robots fight it out. Worry also has a high interest penalty; don’t take on any worry loans.

ChignosMarch 19th, 2009 at 9:56 pm

Right Little Saver, this cup is no zero sum game. In fact we humans have no idea what sum it is, how bountful the universe may add profit to our lives. Think about this: no one, repeat no one has any idea what is at the center of this planet. One thing we do know is that it is HOT on the way down there; i.e., even absent the sun, there’s a lot of (in this example geothermal) energy to be had by earth’s inhabitants…..and…..anyone with a better mousetrap can own it.Now where there’s a lot of energy, there’s also a lot of oil, gas, gold, uranium, etc., etc. So don’t tell me there is no profit. Looking at this vast universe as a zero sum game is looking without imagination, intelligence, insight.Most successful entrepreneurs dig wealth out of the ground because they love their work, not because they are greedy. It’s only those who have never produced a drop of wealth in their life who believe it’s all a zero sum game. They are the truly greedy. At base they know how worthless they are; that’s why they are so eager to criticize the capitalist hands that feed them.

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 10:04 pm

(Is this what we are paying our taxes for?) And don’t forget Free speech, enjoy it while you can, did you see how fast law was written to tax the bonus money. That’s how fast they can change any law and run over the rest of us. Like it or not when they begin writing laws targeting specific people or groups then we all better look out. The whole thing is getting out of hand….!!!

YFCMarch 19th, 2009 at 10:51 pm

All this shows that it’s the American Democracy that is seriously ill, the economy is just a consequence.It’s democracy at its core which is attacked and undermined as a consequence of the spurious Wall Street-Washington relationship.For those a bit far-sighted it’s not difficult to see a rapid decline of american geopolitical leadership as long as the foundations of the American Society and its core social contract are not seriously reassessed and strengthened.”We The People…”, remember? these days the People are clueless, cheated in every way, lost… reduced to mere consumers… what are we, Citizens or just Consumers?

MattMarch 19th, 2009 at 10:58 pm

If there has been a threat that has been taken seriously since the mid-80′s it has been inflation. When I read the harbingers of hyperinflation on this and other boards, I do not see any discussion regarding the velocity of money. Inflation is a product of the money supply and the velocity of that money supply. While it is absolutely true that the injection of over a trillion dollars is an inflationary action, it will not produce a hyperinflationary economy anytime soon, as long as the velocity of that money is lower than it has been in decades. The trick that Helicopter Ben has to pull off is the mopping up of those trillions once the velocity of money returns. While I agree that in the absence of a “Volkeresque” induced recession to control it, inflation is a fear, the calls for WW3 by this summer are ignoring half of the equation.

jugglingcdosMarch 19th, 2009 at 11:23 pm

NY high rise office,a used string tied between two buildings,Its a windy day, rain drizzling,bernanke clad in skimpy lingerie dress/outfit,in one hand he’s throwing out money, the other holding an umbrellahe managed to tick toed a few inch, its still a long way to goWe heard from the Met Service there’s a cold weather system coming to the east coast,probablility of hitting NY is 80%.will he make it??

RalphMarch 19th, 2009 at 11:23 pm

Not so sure “you the people” are the victims – I suspect you are reaping the fruit of what you chose to sow.You lacked courage and embraced fear instead, giving up your freedoms to a leader who became hated by millions in the world because of the torture, theft and killing done in his name (and yours).You made jokes about how foreigners would never be able to get the money they loaned you back, because you had the reverse currency and could print them to death.You consumed the world’s resources as if it was your right; whilst in an age of an excess (of every physical thing) people in the world starved.You weren’t reduced to consumers, you chose it.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 19th, 2009 at 11:28 pm

Matt,The velocity of money will increaase when it is perceived that the Federal Reserve is hell bent on monetizing debt. The initial stages of monetisation always appears good but it almost becomes inevitable that monetization will have to be continued as inflation and devaluation forces interest rates higher. To continue to fund unrealistic deficits, the central bank will have to continue to print. In Weimar, it took only 18mths for that to occur. Hyperinflation is not caused by an increase in money supply. It is caused when the users of the currency realises that there is no scarcity of it. When the government prints money for it expenses, that is when the faith in the value of the currency is lost. And that is when hyperinflation will rear its ugly head.

Miss ItalyMarch 19th, 2009 at 11:34 pm

Is it true that a social net was developed in England only after WW2? As if, after contemplating the destruction, they understood that we have to take care of each other and everyone has to contribute to help the ones in need?Also does a society gets greedier and more selfish the richer it gets? Then is the only way to get universal health care, a pension, good paying jobs is to go through the worst of nightmares? Then be it. The ones that survive, and hopefully our kids, will live in a better world. FED up already of this one….

GuestMarch 19th, 2009 at 11:42 pm

I agree. The name “Mother of God” is offensive, the posts were too long, and the message they contained was frequently irrelevant to this blog.

YCFMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:01 am

So the question remains: is there enough left of the original American Citizen in us?Or are we doomed to soon go the way of past powers?

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:04 am

Wolf: Always appreciate your posts. If you are serious, you should probably consider moving to another country. Give it some thought. I do expect this global downturn/depression to morph into a longer-term battle between the nations over scarce resources. The battle will be mostly economic & protectionist, but partly also military (incl. wars between warlords in third world countries). But I couldn’t give you a timeline. Hope you prosper, in spite of it all.PeteCA

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:07 am

Obama told a town hall meeting in CA today we need to get our deficit spending under control. This, the day after BB printed another trillion to buy treasuries and MBS. I guess someone didn’t get the memo.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:27 am

It’s all wasted money because they haven’t bailed out the consumer at all, they just refuse to do it.

BrianMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:33 am

Not true.Velocity of money leads to inflation.Velocity of money is not necessary for hyperinflation.Hyperinflation occurs when holders of a currency realize that the currency is loosing value, and they try to SELL IT into other currencies/commodities.It is the act of selling currency into a marketplace where there is a lack of adequate buy interest that induces panic, and thus dumping, and thus hyperinflation.There are also unique characteristics about the USD that will lead to a totally unique brand of hyperinflation for which no models currently exist. In sum, the USD has the historically unique status as world reserve currency. This status confers a value-add to the USD, and loss of this status will compound the loss of value of the USD in a hyperinflation scenario. (I have previously estimated that the USD has a value that is roughly 3x it’s true value, simply as a result of holding the reserve currency status, but of course, the actual number is unknowable, since it there is no historical analogue, and we can really only measure the USD against itself).So, the important takeaway is that one must recognize that inflation has a classic and a layman definition, and for standard inflation, velocity of money is a factor. Hyperinflation is a totally different thing. Just because it has the word “inflation” in it, do not mistake it for simply “big inflation.” Hyperinflation is a unique phenomenon, and it does not depend in the least on actual spending of money – it is wholly dependent on the SALE OF MONEY into other currencies and commodities.–Brian

amacflyMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:43 am

I agree, what an absurd waste of time, why do they ever care to apportion blame for Wall Street’s greed and Washington’s corruption?These minds need to be thinking how we can move forward, preferably without the privately owned Fed, a failing fiat monetary system, and most of all without fractional reserve banking.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:56 am

Brian,When I used the term “Velocity of Money”, I was not referring the money creation process (ie fractional banking money creation). I was referring to the number of times money changes hands within a year (ie what you said). So we are on the same page.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:58 am

I am in another country (Hong Kong), but even here it would not be safe. I am thinking New Zealand.. :D

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:03 am

That’s right. In fact, it is in the zero-sum arenas such as the stock market where so much negative yield is harvested.The largest gains are the open-ended endeavours that ultimately boil down to increased efficiency.Farming is better than gathering.Refrigeration to keep dead meat from spoiling.Medicine to keep live meat living.Teaching to perpetuate the possibilities.This country has lost sight of what made it great in the first place. The US is like a star on the main sequence: the hotter it burns, the shorter its life.Let’s see how much we learn in our cooling-off period.

P1AQLMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:11 am

Brian, you totally get it. How can the guy with the gun experience hyperinflation? The guy with the gold will experience hyperinflation if the guy with the gun takes the gold from the guy with the gold. So between the guy with the gun and the guy with the gold, the guy with the gold is susceptible to hyperinflation. Gun is the new gold.Not convinced? Check out the 90% tax on bonus on the bailed out firms. Politics drives economics. They can do it and they will do it. Just like that! You don’t argue with the guy with the gun. He might shoot first and ask questions later. Somewhat like …… Print First Ask Questions Later.

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:12 am

You are way off on your timeline. We still have a huge amount of deleveraging to go through. The new money being printed barely dents the credit being destroyed along with asset deflation.The writing is on the wall, though; the cost of all this is staying on a hyperbolic trajectory, and we really have not dented it yet. The only thing we have done is keep the evil dead alive.Do you know what happens when you throw good money after bad?You double your losses.

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:16 am

People can say what they want about the French, but one thing is certain: the French don’t fear their government like we do.The French would burn their government to the ground if it pulled stunts like ours does.

BrianMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:19 am

Wolf,Yes, my response was to Matt (original poster). I’m just pointing out that in classical inflation, the velocity of money is a factor, but in hyperinflation, it is not relevant. It doesn’t matter whether any of the newly minted money is ever spent on goods and services. The hyperinflation threat is entirely due to the risk of large holders of USD trying to exit their position into other currencies. Thus, the newly printed money need never be exchanged for anything (zero money velocity) and yet it can still lead to hyperinflation.–Brian

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:24 am

Do you have the will to rise against the government at this point?Too many still have jobs and are in love with their ‘stuff’.Like it or not, we are all going to be liberals soon. It will be our duty as good liberals to replace a rotten system with a new system that will decay over time.Obama had the platform and the support to affect real change, but even he has succumbed to the plutocratic forces.May we live in interesting times.

P1AQLMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:48 am

To puff or not to puff is the question …Moody’s Says Don’t Inhale the Smoke It’s Puffing: Jonathan Weilhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aQzRB3sWOivE

As bad as Moody’s missteps have been, though, it’s hard to think of anything potentially more damaging to the company’s reputation than its own claim that its talk of independence and integrity was just smoke.The problem for Moody’s is that, this time, the public might believe it was speaking the truth.

or maybe to smoke or not to smoke pig lipstick is the question?P1AQL

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:51 am

Brian,Actually, in the case of hyperinflation, velocity of money is the main reason. In Weimar Germany, individuals were spending their earnings immediately after receiving it on anything and everything that has some barter value. And whoever was paid went out to spend it as quickly as possible as well. There was widespread unwillingness to hold currency as the value was debased on a daily even hourly basis. As a result, because of the fear of debasement and the lack of trust in monetary authorities, velocity of money shot through the roof. In the modern equivalent, the same can happen. It may start with large holders of the USD to sell first but eventually, it will be the citizens of the US of A that will flee out of their own currency into barter-able goods and other currencies (if there are any that are not monetising) causing hyperinflation.What happened on March 18, 2009 was similar to what happened in Weimar Germany on August 1921 when they first printed money to pay war reparations. As more foreign investors flee the dollar, the greater the need for monetisation to hold rates and to fund deficits. There will be a vicious monetisation and debasement cycle that will shred any confidence in the dollar. Bernanke just took the Gono/Havenstein route.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:51 am

Brian,Actually, in the case of hyperinflation, velocity of money is the main reason. In Weimar Germany, individuals were spending their earnings immediately after receiving it on anything and everything that has some barter value. And whoever was paid went out to spend it as quickly as possible as well. There was widespread unwillingness to hold currency as the value was debased on a daily even hourly basis. As a result, because of the fear of debasement and the lack of trust in monetary authorities, velocity of money shot through the roof. In the modern equivalent, the same can happen. It may start with large holders of the USD to sell first but eventually, it will be the citizens of the US of A that will flee out of their own currency into barter-able goods and other currencies (if there are any that are not monetising) causing hyperinflation.What happened on March 18, 2009 was similar to what happened in Weimar Germany on August 1921 when they first printed money to pay war reparations. As more foreign investors flee the dollar, the greater the need for monetisation to hold rates and to fund deficits. There will be a vicious monetisation and debasement cycle that will shred any confidence in the dollar. Bernanke just took the Gono/Havenstein route.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:57 am

How about Antarctica? They might accept volunteers on some expedition. Great if you love skiing and snow.Besides there are not so many of those HUMANS that cause most of the problems on this planet:-) Only yourself of course and a few researchers.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:00 am

AckermannI think you do not understand what I am saying. Hyperinflation comes about not from monetary expansion. It comes about from the loss of faith in fiat currency. The US$ will be debased, leading to import inflation (as real value has not changed). The US is unfortunately a debtor nation and in its own currency no less. Debasement of the currency is an act of default. And I don’t think the creditors are going to stand around and not do anything. Also, because of the negative flows out of the US as foreign creditors flee will require further monetisation, driving the stake through the proverbial heart of the US$ as populace abandons the dollar for hard assets. Velocity of money will surge as the unwillingness to hold currency grows (see discussion below). This is not about money supply. This is about faith, the one thing that holds a fiat currency regime together.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperinflationSo this is not a question of leverage. If anything, everyone will be trying to lever up as the debt will be “inflated” away by the rise in prices (or debasement of the US$).

The AlarmistMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:33 am

There’s a reason why the MSA is called BOSWASH … same people from Harvard to the Beltway, with the epicenter by any number of measures being Manhattan.Why is middle-America surprised to be further ‘taxed’ by BOSWASH when it finds itself in a bit of difficulty? I liked that ‘divorce’ bit that was posted a few days ago elsewhere in this forum. Time to reconsider our political geography.

The AlarmistMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:39 am

I think you meant to say ‘reserve currency’, but there’s a certain charm to the concept of a ‘reverse currency’.

piperMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:10 am

I think you are correct – the stock market looks so corrupt and manipulated that a lot of people will be leery about getting into it again (I’m one), or will try to get out as soon as they’ve cut their losses. The problem is that guaranteed investments give so low an interest rate that you are losing continuously to inflation so it’s a two-edged sword. Contempt for the financial manipulators and their horrendous pay packages may also influence people to punish them by avoiding the market.

Jason BMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:34 am

Anyone who gets an opportunity should throw a shoe at Bernake or Turbo. Someone reading this blog might get close enough for a good throw.

CLakeMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:03 am

In the current system of finance-led-capitalism, it is precisely the symbiotic relationship between Govt (fed + admin) and wall street (banks + corporations) that is at the heart of the problem : it makes no sense to blame one or the other, as they TOGETHER represent the institutional machine that is responsible for our misery.For instance, it is quite obvious that had Greenspan not followed his policies of lowering interest rates and the Govt stimulating consumption at the moment when the opposite was needed, he would have been fired. Instead, he did what everyone at the time in Wall Street applauded, he was lauded, there was just no alternative, the machine was in full control.Not unless we disconnect the machine will we be free. For this, we need to move away from the current hyper centralised architecture towards that of a resilient regional autonomous network of smaller private entreprises. We need a completely different organisational structure.

DaltoniMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:58 am

Wolf, Karl Denninger has been arguing that there can be no hyperinflation without a wage-price spiral. It’s hard for me to imagine that wages are going to go up. So, when you talk about users of the currency realizing that there is no shortage of the currency, where are ordinary spenders going to get the money? They can’t borrow anymore, they’re losing their jobs, and wage increases seem extremely unlikely.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 6:23 am

I agree with CLake! “The institutional machine” he describes is an extension of the hypercorrupt finance-led de facto shadow world government. The power of fractional reserve banking when compounded with asubsidiary military machine that is pervasive andcontrols the energy corridors can create whateverworld crisis it needs to manipulate world events.Debating who is at fault between Wall Street and theFederal Government is insulting. Wall Street financiers and the world finance elite run the worldand the government is lobbyist controlled windowdressing. We have Potemkin Democracy! All democraciesare beholden to the power of elite contributors andtheir army of lobbyists. The kabuki dance of electionshides the fact that creating multiples of money andgetting paid interest for a virtual asset is the mostpowerful technology ever invented. Those who controlthat technology, control everyone else in the world.The events of the last couple of months are empiricalevidence of this assertion. If we get involved in assinine debates like this, we just spin our wheels.The intellectuals of our day have forfeited their rolein history. They are the whores for the finance elite.There is an agenda, and it involves a very diabolicaland ingenious multilayered control of the population without the need for force. The elite of the elite areformulating an end game, and it is pathological accumulation of assets. The pathology is so severe,that they are willing to crash the world economy andcull the herd to get to accumulate it all.

CLakeMarch 20th, 2009 at 6:30 am

Normally, it’s the other way round, the richer and more advanced societies tend to have less income disparity and a better social safety net. The exception is of course the USA, where it is the result of a political choice.More info :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient(NB, in France, the first social rights were developped in 1936, the so called “Matignon Agreements”, under the Front Populaire socialist government, just before the war).http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Front_(France)

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:01 am

Going to cash is a herd-like response? I don’t think so. I went to cash a long time ago and am glad I did. Thankfully I manage my own money. Otherwise I would have been at the mercy of some self-serving stockbroker or financial advisor. Chanos has it right about the abrogation of financial responsibilities to clients–it goes from the highest to the lowest levels.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:19 am

did Obama and his democratic gang get the memo? did congress get that memo as they gave $5Billion to auto parts? seems like memo is PR stunt.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:23 am

yep, it shocked me how fast they can pass new law to tax people. they can certainly lower that $250k to $100k or to $50k next week. then that will mean higher tax for 99% of American. Scary stuff. Obama and his democratic gang is abusing their power now.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:23 am

MOG was eccentric and arrogant and sometimes even condescending yet she was brilliant and right. There are a lot of jealous fakes who took shots at her who have just as big of egos yet work so hard to hide them which of course makes them untrustworthy whiners-I’d rather hear it from the heart, ego and all just let it shine which is what MOG did. What is disappointing is to see MOG welt under their attacks obviously she was a fragile person a typical trait in some of the most brilliant minds.

CLakeMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:25 am

Brian is very correct. What’s important to understand is that this is not at all a linear phenomena : one does not get from deflation to low inflation then higher inflation and then hyperinflation, but directly from deflation to hyperinflation :there is a treshold beyond which monetary easing, not having succeeded to get us out of a deflationary environment as operators have until then preferred to hold cash or cash equvallents suddenly panic and decide en masse that they’d rather hold tangible assets (typicall gold, oil, other commodities, farm land are generally the first to start the bidding) than cash. That’s when we go directly to hyperinflation, over a VERY short period of time. There are no signs beforehand, because if there were, those first signs would be sufficient to start the ball rolling.Noone knows where that treshold lies. Bernanke doesn’t know, there is no model that describes the phenomena. That’s precisely the lesson Germany learned during the Weimar republic, a dangerous game of manouevering in uncharterred territory. It wasn’t crossed in Japan, it hasn’t been crossed (yet) in the USA or in Britain, but who knows how far we are from it ? Because it is essentially a psychological phenomena (the moment when individual’s fear of holdng cash becomes superior to that of holding tangible assets as a snowball effect), a black swan, something we can’t forecast, we should do everything to avoid testing it’s limits, and not the other way round.But it seems Mr Bernanke has no fear !

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:26 am

“The new money being printed barely dents the credit being destroyed along with asset deflation”oh boy, seems like Ben will bring out print $1.2Trillion Bazooka couple of time, correction alots of time now.

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:26 am

Interesting. I was only looking at it as a dilution. If there is really a loss of faith in the greenback, then the gig is up. That would have to be a domestic loss of faith.I think its status buys it a little room.We may actually see inflows of cash because of a carry unwind. Our trade deficit is shrinking, so foreign held reserves can shrink.Actually, Saudi Arabia may see that cash as it gets traded for something useful.I’m not sure that printing new money is as dangerous as what is starting to back existing money. Have you seen the composition of the FED balance sheet lately? It wasn’t through open market operations that it ballooned, it was from all the special facilities and the result is our money is backed by Maiden Lane.The FED has to be concerned if some of that paper starts defaulting. There is no recourse on that paper; it’s not like taxes can be raised to make up the shortfall because that was a FED operation outside the government.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:31 am

isn’t there a saying, USD is backed by confidence of foreigner like Japan and China in USA government. Couple days ago chairman Wen questioned about that confidence thing. Then Ben brought out $1.2Trillion bazooka and blew away Obama’s talk about confidence in USD or USD denominated asset. That is one two punch on confidence in USA fiat paper. Seems like there will be more spending bills and more of Ben’s $X Trillion bazooka. talk about confidence.

tutterfrutMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:34 am

“we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”And how about lashing claws around the region?

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:36 am

That’s one thing the treasuries could be used for. The Fed could sell them back through the open market to the primary dealers and mop up cash that way.If only they had more tresuries and less Maiden Lane.

PTLdomMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:37 am

On the stock markets, investment bank analysts and stock holders are the ultimate responsible. The same applies to some so-called prestigious strategic consultant firms, when criticizing the stock pricing lag of companies who did not engaged in the follies of the bubble, or those with a more conservative risk-taking and not permeable to the collective euphoric craziness. The good sense was bitterly punished and those with the feet on the ground were always under a takeover threat and lost unsatisfied clients, who moved to stock price growth institutions and companies, because everyone with no exception were betting on those. CEO’s could not be blamed, they were simply pushed by the market to do what their peers were careless doing. Just look to what happened once Citi, a bankrupt institution issued a kind note on themselves. Many others wsere compelled and immediately did the same. Investment and brokerage houses inflated the value of those statements with stock prices increases in an attempt to create an optimistic wave and attract money from investors. They all live by (badly) advising, selling and buying on behalf of investors.

CLakeMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:41 am

If one fears hyperinflation and one holds cash, one should sell one’s cash or cash equivallents and buy other assets, preferrably liquid (eg commodities, Gold, oil, safer currencies etc…).As one can see, it suffices that many cash holders start fearing the same thing at the same moment in time to start the ball rolling : then hyperinflation becomes a reality.Hyperinflation is the result of a psychological phenomena, of fear, not something that can be easily forecasted and the risk of which easily mitigated.We are (probably) (???) still far from it for the dollar, a little less far for the sterling, but how far ? Who knows ? Noone ! Not even Bernanke, nor Darling.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:54 am

In the end though it’s a necessary adjustment we have sacrificed real demand by exploiting cheap foreign labor for a long time and the imbalance was a disaster waiting to happen. Ultimately we’ll be better off it just sucks if you happen to be middle aged like me. It’s not as if the U.S. lacks resources, it’s just always been cheaper to get them else where, well that certainly won’t be the case any more but real jobs can be created now. Once the equilibrium has been established and globalization put to death we can start rebuilding in a more sensible self-sustaining way, but yes you’re right the party’s over. War is not inevitable but this adjustment increases the chances. It’s last call and the bartender is serious but he’s doing us all a favor.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:56 am

That’s for real hardworking poor people big difference in this kind of bailout, these save jobs.

FEDupMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:01 am

agree; centralization of power is akin to absolute power and we know the end of that saying. As our govt has grown ever larger, it has become more inefficient, corrupt, inept and unrepresentative of the people’s interests; in short, it has become the primary tool of the elite corporations; there needs to be a decentralization, full transparency, full regulation and full accountability if they expect Americans to continue to live and work in this country, pay taxes and die in it’s wars!

MarkMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:15 am

Excellent article.UM economist V.V. Chari: Government bailout policy is “cross your fingers and hope”There are a bunch of people who are talking about nationalization in the sense of taking over, wiping out the equity holders and wiping out the debt holders. To the extent that they’re talking about wiping out part or all of the debt claims that uninsured debtors hold against the financial institutions, I would say economic theory says that that’s a really good idea. To the extent they continue to protect the existing debt holders–if you nationalize just in terms of wiping out the equity holders–that does not solve the medium-term and long-term problem. In fact, it’s going to exacerbate it, because as we have seen with AIG and Bear Stearns and a variety of other institutions, the U.S. government is singularly ill-equipped to run major financial institutions.So any proposal for nationalization–even the most ardent advocates–propose a relatively speedy return to private hands. If you’re going to return it to private hands without wiping out the debt holders, you haven’t solved the fundamental problem. Nationalization is fine if it means wiping out the equity holders. It’s not fine if it means leaving the debt holders completely unaffected. That’s the way I’d describe it.I think these code words and buzzwords miss the fundamental underlying reality: Somebody has to take the hit because the market value of the assets is less than the market value of the liabilities. Any mechanism that does not impose some of that hit on existing debt holders is a mechanism that’s setting us up for problems in the future.Mark

CLakeMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:30 am

Of course he has a choice : let deflation follow its course and not try to reinflate the bubble at all cost.

FaithMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:48 am

I agree with you on that , all that bail out money thats been thrown to system covering the place for lost credit for now.Programmes are mostly about housing, and consumer spending. Basically to create an inflationary situation all the losts from that deleveraging and stock market collapse in the entire world has to be regained.The difference is that once those losses regained Dow Jones wont stop at 14000 this time it will go a lot further cause of the money that FED creating from thin air right now.Yes there is a monetary inflation now but also there is a consumption decrease so most probably deflation forces will stop the inflationary forces for some more time. Until when ? Until FED throws many many other programmes and also many other stimulus packages from the governement.Scary thing is that we can possibly have inflation with stagnation as wellwhich will make life more diffucult on people who lost their jobs.Nothing will happen tomorrow immediately , i think everybody has to take steps according to that and slowly save up in assets that will hold value……

MAMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:57 am

MOG, Miss America here.I agree and disagree with many of your points. Sometimes I didn’t have the time to read a lengthy post of yours, because I was too busy writing my own lengthy post.Either way, we have critics that like and dislike what we say… but either way, I am glad that there are a few of us who are willing to take the time to “say it”.Good luck with your journey, and if you return there is always a home. Freedom of speech and expression are graet things. Proof of that is the praise and ire we draw.All the best,Miss America

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:03 am

Wolf – you should chill out….there is no currency on this planet that isn’t fiat…everyone has the incentive to print money….so there’s unfortunately nowhere to hide….so you say buy gold? why? the only reason gold mattered in the past was that it backed currency — but now it doesn’t…so why should gold matter in the future? Settle down and stay put. The US will still be the best of the worst.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:14 am

Actually gathering is better than farming. Adam and Eve were gatherers, gathering lifesytle is the Garden of Eden with much more leisure than the heavy work of farming. Farming is for marginal environments where there isn’t an abundance of year round food for the plucking and requires slavelike labor versus walking around plucking the fruits when you want them. It’s true with farming you get civilization but is that better?

DMHMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:26 am

James K. Galbraith has written an excellent article in the March/April 2009 edition of Washington Monthly entitled, “No Return to Normal: Why the economic crisis, and its solution, are bigger than you think.” Here is the link:http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2009/0903.galbraith.htmlIn a lengthy article packed with careful analysis and specific solutions, Mr. Galbraith makes a compelling case that the financial/credit crisis can only be solved from the bottom up and not the top down. It is one of the first comprehensive articles I have read which gives me a glimmer of hope that this financial crisis can be tackled but it will take extraordinary creativity and time, lots of it. I urge everyone to read the entire article, but below are a few noteworthy quotes from Mr. Galbraith’s article:”A brief reflection on this history and present circumstances drives a plain conclusion: the full restoration of private credit will take a long time. It will follow, not precede, the restoration of sound private household finances. There is no way the project of resurrecting the economy by stuffing the banks with cash will work. Effective policy can only work the other way around.”After laying out detailed steps to begin resurrecting private household finances, Mr. Galbraith summarized: “[T]he work does resemble wartime mobilization in important financial respects. Weatherization, conservation, mass transit, renewable power, and the smart grid are public investments. . . . What is required are careful, sustained planning, consistent policy, and the recognition now that there are no quick fixes, no easy return to ‘normal,’ no going back to a world run by bankers — and no alternative to taking the long view.”Mr. Galbraith closes his article as follows: “Does the Geithner team, forged and trained in normal times, have the range and flexbility required? If not, everything finally will depend, as it did with Roosevelt, on the imagination and character of President Obama.”

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:29 am

Wolf. NZ is a very good choice. Can give you very specific info if you give me an e-mail.PeteCA

Observer KMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:39 am

With the participation of the distinguished and well-known speakers, it is without doubt an excellent debate. Apportion of blame between Washington and Wall Street is obviously pointless. Policy-makers and lawmakers in Washington are enablers of the ponzi schemes of securitization devised by Wall Street through modification and creation of new rules and regulations, and legislations. As long as the schemes work both parties are happy because they receive huge profits in term of bonuses and campaign contributions, etc.Now that the schemes have collapsed, Washington and Wall Street have resorted to looting the tax-payers through systemic bailouts that are opaque. Such policy actions are always cheered by main street media to subdue public opinions. One obvious example is the bailout of AIG, which to date has cost tax-payers $170 bn. More is yet to come. Last week, two important announcements pertaining to AIG were reported. First announcement was the list of CDS counter-parties (Goldman Sachs, BOA, Citigroup, etc.) that received about $100 bn of AIG’s payout in full without any hair cut. Let’s not forget that when AIG and its counterparties entered into an insurance contract there was no implicit government or taxpayers guarantee. Second announcement was the obscene bonus given to AIG Executives, particularly to those in the division that brought the firm down. Between these two issues, policymakers, lawmakers and mainstream media have exhibited extreme outrage (that is rightly so) at AIG bonuses instead of AIG’s 100% payout to its counterparties. My perception is that there is a strong intention to divert Americans attention away from the bigger issue where more taxpayers’ monies could have been saved. American public should be more outrage as to the rationale of full payout to AIG counterparties, which should have been devised with the knowledge of policymakers, particularly, the FED, past and present Treasury Secretary. Is such action not tantamount to looting the American taxpayers? If so, how can we prevent such daylight looting from continuing?

Pecos BankerMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:55 am

When Adam delvedAnd Eve span,Who then was the gentleman?–I forgot who (Ezra Pound, perhaps?)

YFCMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:07 am

Rise against the govt? we have difficulty even rising from the couch, as an overwhelmingly sedated and morbidly obese consumerist people we have become. No May 68 in sight on 5th or Pennsylvania Av…

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:32 am

There has been some really good debate on this thread today about deflation, inflation, hyperinflation, and velocity of money. I really appreciate all the inputs on these subjects – thanks for the discussion folks.Wolf in the Wild: As I said above, if you need specific info on NZ, let me know an e-mail. I can help.What’s noticeable today is that the market is dithering. Already it does not look like there’s much steam left in this rally. I firmly beleive its a bear market rally. But the point is this – after a monumental announcement by the Fed (with a $1.6 trillion injection), we’re already talking about the rally being possibly stalled. There’s now already pressure on the LONG’s and CALL’s about whether they want to hold, or sell and take a profit. So the tremendous underlying weakness in the US market is again manifesting itself.Meanwhile, Obama is telling folks he needs to trim the budget. But let’s get real. He needs to make mammoth cuts in major spending programs to even make a dent in the spiraling deficits at this stage. Will Washington DC actually cut the defense budget by 50%? Politically, it’s hard to imagine that such an option would fly. But it’s what’s required if they’re serious about stopping runaway deficits.PeteCA

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:35 am

MOG – good luck to you wherever you’re going. Americans will need to live together as a society. It will be a big challenge for all of us, and I’m not really sure if we will pass the test at this stage. But I wish you the best.PeteCA

MAMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:39 am

Hello all,For those of you who were interested in my EVAPORFLATION piece, and stopped in, I have replied to all.If you haven’t seen it or would like to, it is at:http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/256056#159536I will keep checking in and commenting as I go.Nouriel, If you haven’t had the chance to read it, I’d love it if you dropped by. I really believe this is more reality then theory, and our cure from our current ills requires proper diagnosis.All the best,Miss America

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:43 am

Nice chart today on the earnings decline for the S&P500 from 1935-current. It’s at the following link:http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090320.htm?TSpecial thanks to the folks at Chart-of-the-Day for this piece of info.Their point: The earnings drop for the S&P500 is now in record territory – over the time period of the chart (since 1935).PeteCA

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:55 am

Joe Russo has some interesting charts for US major stocks at the following link. While I don’t agree with the technical analysis on every single chart, I do think that Mr. Russo manages to get his main point across.There are a lot of major US companies that are either on the road to ruin right now, or literally sitting at the dividing line. Here’s the link:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2009/0319.htmlI thought this article was interesting – because it squares with some comments I made on this blog a week (or so) ago. It sure looks like the USA is on the verge of seeing the industrial base get decimated.While Bernanke, Geithner and Obama have been spending countless trillions to rescue banks – the fact is that America needs a new industrial revolution. And we need it now! That’s where all the stimulus money should have gone. But instead, the dying banking sector has literally sucked the lifeblood out of this nation. Not only today’s lifeblood mind you, but very likely the lifeblood of the whole next generation of Americans as well.PeteCA

PoliticalatheistMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:01 am

On an economic front, I felt that Bush was going to be labeled as the worst President we have had … ever. However in two short months, Obama has taken that trophy away from him!My goodness have our political leaders lost common sense and leadership?

Brett in ManhattanMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:14 am

If there’s one positive that can come out of this mess, it’s that, in the future, bright kids coming out of college might go into something productive as opposed to going to Wall St.

Brett in ManhattanMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:18 am

For the last 200 years, there have been boom/busts in this country approx every 20yrs. It’s just the nature of the beast.

Brett in ManhattanMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:26 am

I see his “Risk of Ruin” a bit differently. When these stocks get this cheap, the “real” owners get them back from the “temporary” owners, the public.Just ask yourself this simple question: Do Wall St. insiders prefer to buy their stocks cheap or at a premium?

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:02 pm

That is not technically the case. Its a chicken and egg thing. If the value of the USD declines precipitiously as foreign holders of the currency sell for fear of monetisation, the immediate impact will be higher prices. With higher prices, there will be incentive for higher wages. But even then, that is not necessary the case. Domestic holders might flee the dollar in favour of hard assets (gold, farmland etc) to preserve value of their wealth. That too will lead to higher assets prices and in turn may spur higher wages. In Weimar, the initial economic results looked like a massive turnaround before it all broke down in hyperinflation. During the first 12 months, income rose as prices rose, and investment increased. It was all nominal though. The cost was a far weaker Mark but in the short term it looked like a good idea to spur growth. The problem was that there was no way to stop the monetisation of debt and wages without causing massive overcapacity and unemployment. So they kept of printing to pay off their debt. Eventually, the Mark was debased to such as extent (in terms of other currencies as well as gold and other hard assets) that faith was completely lost. Look at Zimbabwe. The same is happening there today. They are printing to pay wages. And the workers will buy whatever that is tradeable as soon as the cash is at hand. As long as there is fear that money is not scarce, hyperinflation will occur.The wage/price spiral is about overproduction and oversupply of money. It is monetary phenomenon but it leads to HIGH inflation not HYPERinflation. Denninger is confusing the two. Hyperinflation is a debasement and psychological phenomenon.

HubbsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:04 pm

But then the defense jobs/industries decline, less production, more unemployment, less tax revenue. Round and round it goes down the drain.We need a Manhattan Project sized effort to find a realistic source of power.We need to think of economic sustainability instead of this of this mantra of economic growth being the universal constant. If we developed a cheap source of power such as fusion, such that it was a game changer, then maybe we could talk again about economic growth.

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

Yes, currencies are all fiat but not all currencies are monetising. That is main issue. Individual countries will have to decide what they want: the choice of hyperinflation or recession. Given the sharp and semipermanent decline in demand from the US, the likelihood is higher for the these countries to choose the latter. Why debase your own currency when there is NO benefit? Taking the former route will be going back to Bretton Woods I with all the inflation ramifications. Also, commodity rich countries do not have to devalue their currency with the backing of hard assets. Gold didn’t just back currency. Gold IS currency. It has all the characteristics of a currency. The debasement of the USD may not lead to the debasement of all currencies. If it did, it is even more important to buy gold to protect real wealth and preserve real capital.The world can choose to abandon the USD hegemony and move to a more sustainable currency model. Unfortunately, that will spell the end of the US (no foreign reserves to buy imports, not enough production capacity to export its way out). Then again, there is the military card…..

Wolf in the WildsMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

Its status is dependent on the belief of US’s creditors in the country to preserve the value of the USD. Bernanke just destroyed that myth. The US just went on the path of beggaring its creditors. It will be met with retaliation: dumping US treasuries and switching out to hard assets/commodity currencies.Bernanke’s actions on Wednesday was an act of desperation or worse, deliberate default. No creditor will trust the US again.And of course you are also right about what is backing the USD. Which is why the Chinese have been warning the US, to no avail.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:31 pm

How about passing a law that says all banks taking bailout money must pay all bonuses in MBS’s, CDO’s, and CDS contracts. Then tax the them as bonus income at their face value. This would in effect claw back previous pay as we all know these assets are worth far less than face value. Pay these guys with the products they created and then see how they try to value them. If you can pay bonuses in stock why not other paper assets.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:33 pm

“Getting Tough” with Predator Financial InstitutionsAIG, Larry Summers and the Politics of Deflectionby F. William EngdahlPreserving the CDS bubble….”The political ‘outrage’ expressed by the Obama Administration is an example of ‘perception management.’ The population is being slylyduped into believing their officials are working in their interest. In reality the officials are channeling growing popular outrage over endless bank bailouts away from the real problem to an entirely tertiary one. The US Government has injected $180 billion since September 2008 to keep the ‘brain dead’ AIG in business and honoring its Credit Default Swap obligations. In effect, they are propping up the casino to continue endless gambling with taxpayer dollars.The rise of a market in derivatives or ‘swaps’ contracts supposedly to ‘insure’ against a company going into default and not being able to honor its debts, the Credit Default Swaps market, is at the heart of the global financial catastrophe. The market was ‘invented’ by a young economist at JP MorganChase, interestingly enough one of the few big banks recording profit today……”.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12787

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:33 pm

“Getting Tough” with Predator Financial InstitutionsAIG, Larry Summers and the Politics of Deflectionby F. William EngdahlPreserving the CDS bubble….”The political ‘outrage’ expressed by the Obama Administration is an example of ‘perception management.’ The population is being slylyduped into believing their officials are working in their interest. In reality the officials are channeling growing popular outrage over endless bank bailouts away from the real problem to an entirely tertiary one. The US Government has injected $180 billion since September 2008 to keep the ‘brain dead’ AIG in business and honoring its Credit Default Swap obligations. In effect, they are propping up the casino to continue endless gambling with taxpayer dollars.The rise of a market in derivatives or ‘swaps’ contracts supposedly to ‘insure’ against a company going into default and not being able to honor its debts, the Credit Default Swaps market, is at the heart of the global financial catastrophe. The market was ‘invented’ by a young economist at JP MorganChase, interestingly enough one of the few big banks recording profit today……”.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12787

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:35 pm

Obama speaks with forked tongue and Geithner, Bernanke and Summers are orchestrating a heist. Bush and his cohorts were the epitome of incompetence and arrogant hubris but with Obama and his merry band of banksters this contract ON America would make Caligula blush.

TfTMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Apologize to be off-topic and I am using another person’s account for this post. This post is about the access to Professor’s blog.I got an email from RGE Monitor saying my (subscription) trial was expiring three weeks ago and asked me to reply if I’d continue. I didn’t use any trial whatsoever so I didn’t reply then. My account is suspended today. :( (((( Got back to check my email and found I received another one yesterday, saying my subscription has been extended for two weeks and would end today (Mar 20, 2009). This time, I replied.Could anyone who had similar experience advise how to resolve this and how soon it may get resolved? I admit I seem a little addicted to this blog. My impression is Professor once stated on his blog that access to his blog would always to be free. Thank you very much for your help in advance. (Well, I may see your advice with the borrowed account until mine is re-enabled.)By the way, this situation seems to pop up from time to time. Could the IT professionals at RGE Monitor consider to set the access permission/right to the lowest level, namely just the access to free contents like Professor’s own blog, for registered users when a trial period ends (if it does exist) instead of disabling/suspending it?? This would save both users and RGE Monitor staff a lot of work. And that would be very thoughtful.

Brett in ManhattanMarch 20th, 2009 at 12:52 pm

Sorry, DAPeople sell their stocks when they go DOWN. Just look at Mutual Fund outflows for 2008 compared to previous years.

theCatMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

This is very wrong. The system is essentially closed; the energy inputs are impossible to “save” as they ultimately resolve themselves as heat and are lost to the universe (fossil fuels being the only interesting exception, see comments below on this). What the annual energy inputs allow is novel reorganizations of matter (meaning, plants and animals) that CAN and usually ARE saved and horded. Profit results from getting your hands on someone else’s “novel materials” from their own store (garden or ranch). Profit may not be theft as such, but it IS always temporary accumulation of something someone else grew/created/managed using freely available solar inputs.Fossil fuels are the most interesting exception. I read recently that nearly 100% of our current financial system is where it is EXACTLY BECAUSE OF fossil fuel inputs. All the “profit” people are hording, all the paper wealth, all the material goods, are just real-world manifestations of the recent (and one-time-only) conversion of all that stored solar energy into novel arrangements of materials (initially, growing things, but also transport and energy generation.)As such, we are f**king doomed once the fossil fuel teat runs dry. There is ABSOLUTELY NO replacement for fossil fuels in this regard. Yes, we can generate energy in other ways, but energy generation is not the most interesting nor critical thing we do with fossil fuels.

PhilTMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

@Wolf in Wilds et alAll of this talk of hyperinflation and comparison of the current situation of the USA with 1920′ Weimar Republic is interesting. Maybe there is another way too look at it though … Niall Ferguson had this to say in the FT on Jan 1 2008 => An Ottoman warning for America

Guest oMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:24 pm

g,current pillaging abuses etc. extending out tofuture generations. i did not know that a classof “investors” or “consumers” could actuallyreach out into the future and sodomize theunborn. yes, caligula would blush.

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

Brett: A professional approach – provided you can be sure which companies will still be in business in 5-10 years.PeteCA

HoHo'BamaMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

Thank you very much, President Obama — you are as good as President George Washington was!”These are the two great issues, the economic crisis and our safety. In the face of them, what strikes one is the weightlessness of the Obama administration, the jumping from issue to issue and venue to venue from day to day. Isaiah Berlin famously suggested a leader is a fox or a hedgehog. The fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing. In political leadership the hedgehog has certain significant advantages, focus and clarity of vision among them. Most presidents are one or the other. So far Mr. Obama seems neither.” PEGGY NOONAN / WSJ-3/20/09http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123750000839989123.html

TfTMarch 20th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

*Update*Thanks to RGE Monitor staff! My account has been re-activated quickly after I replied. :D So one approach is to reply the email you receive about subscription exipiration stating for access to Professor’s blog. Then your account will be updated soon (during regular business hours, Eastern Time, I think).

TfTMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:06 pm

I’d call not only bonus but ALL their compensations. They can try to get their health insurance through the fancy MBS, CDO, CDS, blahblahblah.Does anyone care to spread this proposal around?@MA,Do you think this idea would fly to your media contacts? (I wonder if your media contacts dare to televise this idea.)@ (Original) Guest,Although the chances of this to become true is close to nil, would you mind still having a blog name so should a miracle did occur, it may be named after you. Otherwise, it would be Guest (at RGE Monitor) Act in case a miracle does occur.

subgeniusMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

They sent the inflatable dinghy – it was all they had left. Unfortunately they didn’t repair the hole in the tube due to budget constraints and it is now shipping water.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:26 pm

US economy is built upon legs of sandFinancial fears growMore consumers are just a paycheck or two away from ruinA MetLife study released last week found that 50% of Americans said they have only a one-month cushion — roughly two paychecks — or less before they would be unable to fully meet their financial obligations if they were to lose their jobs. More disturbing is that 28% said they could not make ends meet for longer than two weeks without their jobs.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fears-grow-more-consumers-just/story.aspx?guid=%7B504D22FD%2DCC66%2D4FC1%2DBF8D%2D2F199C2AD042%7D&dist=hplatest

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:29 pm

WASHINGTON – The White House says new projections of spiraling budget deficits won’t stop President Barack Obama from achieving his goals or keeping his promise to cut the country’s red ink in half within four years.White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Friday that the administration is a bit more optimistic about the nation’s economic growth over the long term than congressional analysts. The congressional projections released Friday say Obama’s budget would generate deficits averaging almost $1 trillion a year over the next decade.The Congressional Budget Office figures predict Obama’s budget will produce $9.3 trillion worth of red ink from 2010 through 2019. That’s $2.3 trillion worse than the White House predicted in its budget.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090320/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_budget

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

Never, ever, trust govt. mouthpieces. The bureaucrats have to keep their own jobs. They can do so + they can get promotions, only by proting the interests of their lier-bosses.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

Am I blind, or MarketWatch site is blind??This MarketWatch site says that Dow p/e is 28.41 as of 3/20/09?http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/indu

K AckermannMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

Oh, come on. We are running cars without fossil fuels now. The energy density is needed to boost fighter jets, but good riddance to them.We all know about entropy and heat death, but does that mean we cannot march to greater efficiency?There is a thing that can remain stationary on surfaces of any orientation, can fly through 3-D space and perform turns whos inertia would rip apart most man-made machines, that can avoid attempts to do it harm, that can self-replicate using a blueprint so clever that it is taking millions of people working full time to resolve, and it does all this on a grain of sugar or poop, or whatever flies eat.I would say we have some room to lower our entropy footprint.

MAMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

Bair Says FDIC Reserves May Reach ‘Zero’ Without Fees (Update2)March 20 (Bloomberg) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said a one-time fee to prop up deposit insurance is needed to maintain a “stable banking system,” as she sought to quell opposition from community bankers.“Even though this increase comes at a difficult time, I strongly believe that keeping deposit insurance industry-funded will be better for you and your customers when this crisis is over,” Bair said today at the Independent Community Bankers of America conference in Phoenix.Bair said deposit insurance is a “good bargain” and without added revenue the fund may evaporate, and she hinted the agency may ease the burden on community lenders. The Washington- based bankers’ group, with almost 5,000 members, has lobbied to reconsider the fee, saying higher costs may cut 2009 earnings.The FDIC plans to charge banks the assessment July 1 to replenish its deposit insurance fund that was drained by 25 bank failures last year. Bair said the FDIC may “trim back” the levy of 20 cents per $100 of insured deposits to “single digits” if lawmakers pass legislation now pending to expand the agency’s borrowing authority from the Treasury Department.“Without additional revenue beyond the regular assessments, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero,” Bair said.EVAPORFLATION!

ex VRWCMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:51 pm

Why not set up over on blogspot? You can post there and people who are interested in your particular topic can follow? I know I try to keep it short here and do anything with a significant length over there.You main themes (pay justice) are a reflection of a very important force impacting our economy. I would expect to see more discussion of wages, labor shock, and other related topics in the near future here, courtesy of the Brain Trust activity. Please check back in.I wish you and your husband the best, especially as it relates to navigating your way through the next couple of years with your current situation.ex VRWC

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

Someone else suggested the same thing a week or two ago and offered to help her with it. Guess she felt it was either this or nothing.I wish her the best, also.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

And that is passed on to the customer. Those lower taxes will not cover all the inflation and extras like these listed above.

g AntonMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

This is a splendid example of “tweedledum” and “tweedledee”. Who is the more criminal person–the bank robber, or the guy who drives the getaway car?

K in TXMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

I always just thought it was a woman named Mary trying to be clever. Mary is a pretty common name. Pardon my Judeo-Christian bias.

subgeniusMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF), which is intended to provide up to $200.0 billion in financing and has been touted as a pillar of the government’s strategy to unlock private credit markets, only received requests for $4.7 billion in funding to buy securities backed by auto loans and credit card receivables…

subgeniusMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:38 pm

There is nothing that the industrialized world is doing that can be done without fossil fuel. Including building and fueling alternative cars, power stations, etc.theCat is right.

ex VRWCMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:46 pm

It can’t be bottom up as it comes from the top. In other words, the government is not the answer to a bottom up solution. We are. We need to address a bottom up revolution by understanding the situation we are in and with each of us taking action to move toward where we need to be.The government may help or hurt with its policies. To date, they have been too focused on top down. Whatever they do, we can begin to make changes toward this end ourselves.

K in TXMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:47 pm

Wolf that make way too much sense. I hope we avoid a hot war but the excess of labor and manufacturing capacity left by the collapse of the American consumer makes that outcome less likely. The powers that be will balance supply and demand some how. Woe is us.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:50 pm

A hint to the wise!Guys/gals, from now onwards, please stop in any way criticizing President Obama, directly or indirectly, even by hint or by implication. If you don’t follow this sage advice, this will happen to you. (The links within-the-main-link, below, deserve special notice.) Here is the top of the layer:IntimidationFreeper RaceBannon just heard from Freeper Flightline, a personal friend and mutual acquaintance of Walt Fitzpatrick. Walt, an Annapolis graduate (1975), just got a visit from 3 to 4 Police Cruisers and one unmarked Government car from Knoxville, Tennessee. Walt was informed that his most recent column, which he filed as a criminal complaint in the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Knoxville, Tennessee, was being responded to as a criminal complaint against Walter himself; that the complaint he filed was ignored and was the basis for the complaint against himself.The criminal Complaint against Walt specifically stated that Walter’s complaint was considered a threat against the President of the United States.Walter was interviewed by these officers in his yard and house and openly stated his belief of his criminal complaint along with his own personal documentation to defend his complaint and why he believed it to be true.Walter was not arrested and the officers who visited his home responded by telling him the apparent threat against Obama was unfounded and they left the premises without incident.Walter was not arrested, no search of his home was done and the officers were professional.So much for the 1st Amendment. I read the guy’s blog. I wouldn’t have written it, but he certainly didn’t threaten anybody.These folks never got a visit from the Secret Service, and if you don’t think there’s a double standard, Google “kill Bush.”I guess “free expression” only applies to Democrats, illegal aliens, ACORN and the folks at the Daily Kos.http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaLatest.htm

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 4:52 pm

All of the executives of the companies receiving largess from the AIG bailout get large BONUSES. These bonuses would likely not have occurred or been seriously scaled back without the AIG bailout. When executives can no longer profit from federal monies, the banks will stop fighting nationalization and real resolution to this crisis can begin.

HayesMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

It would appear that companies would rather go it alone then get tangled up in the politics of bailouts. McCarthyism appears to be alive.

Brett in ManhattanMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:10 pm

And these are same people who are being encouraged to go out and borrow more.Sounds like a plan, to me.

HayesMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:12 pm

the cycles are getting shorter and shallower – three months ago all of this Fed/Treasury activity would have been good for 230 on the S&P and would have lasted for a month – this time around we got 115 on the S&P and it rolled over in less than two weeks (Moore’s Law in reverse?)

K in TXMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:19 pm

I think this had less to do with who he was critical of than with the fact that he filed a criminal complaint with the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Not exactly keeping a low profile.An old girlfriend and I used to talk on the phone for hours and mused on the likelihood that our calls were being wiretapped by the government. We would toss in a random “kill the president” now and then just to see if anyone was listening. If the men in black ever showed up they must have stayed on the down low.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:24 pm

A female friend of mine sent me a quote from her hobby mb. I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry. The person who was quoted basically said, apparently in all seriousness, that the US is the greatest nation with the best people with the most fortitude, and that money is worth whatever we want it to be worth, that it’s paper and our belief in it gives it value. The person believes everyone is overreacting and that everything will be just fine.I don’t generally drink, but I’m considering having one right about now.

subgeniusMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:31 pm

Back in the early days of email it was discussed in hacker (in the original sense of the term) circles that email was going to be heavily monitored by TPTB. Certain individuals (who shall remain nameless) devised a program (nicknamed “NORIEGA”) that inserted random key phrases into all emails, in an attempt to overwhelm the monitoring system.These days, obfuscation is a far superior tactic.

HayesMarch 20th, 2009 at 5:50 pm

since CM a.k.a conspiracyman a.k.a. stockgoingreen seems to have abandoned RGE allow me to offer up this:Feb 11 – two satellites collideFeb 17 – a French and a British nuclear sub collideMarch 20 – Two U.S. Navy vessels — a nuclear-powered submarine and an amphibious ship — collided before dawn Friday in the mouth of the Persian Gulfcoincidence??

AnonymousMarch 20th, 2009 at 6:47 pm

Retail sales continue massive decline. The speed of our economic decline is quickening. I work for one the largest retailers in the U.S. I track our category sales very closely. After the New Year, our seasonal category sales have been horrible. I firmly believe that the comparative sales numbers I post below give a very good indication of the state of our economy.Live goods (trees, plants, flowers) -35%Patio Sets -56%Camping Equip. -34%Pool/water sports -29%These are MASSIVE numbers for us. There has been an incredibly abrupt change in how the consumer spends their money.

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 6:58 pm

No … it’s definitely the tequila.And that worm at the bottom of the bottle doesn’t help!PeteCA

PeterJBMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:45 pm

From the latest round of opinion (sic) it is obvious (to me) and should be to all socio-economic analysts that while Congress deals in its most predictable knee jerking ad hoc’s and usual moronic fashion of the emotional cants of “bonuses” in the private sector after handing over a few trillion dollars from the public purse, current and future, that …Pope Benanke and his sword wielding warrior priests such as Tiny Tim et al, in their chambers of secrecy and magic wands, have without any doubt at all, taken over the former Constitutional Republic of the United States of America (RIP) to be known from now on as the Most Reverent Catholic (center of the Universe) Reserve where, the term ‘Federal’ will be removed in preference to a more holistically (pun intended) expression and definition to its Power and Glory, Amon.As I have stated here before on numerous occasion, Congress is now totally irrelevant to the operational government of those peoples of North America.The former Federal Reserve has morphed into its current role and is now fully hands on and is answerable to only its shareholders; Congress is now merely diversionary entertainment. The President of the former USA now answers to this central power via its representative office known as the Office of the Treasury; most appropriately.Expect a new “constitution” to be “legally” drawn up by this “Most Holy Order” and further expect a new State to alienated under Land Title in perpetuity surrounding the FedRes buildings in its present location; it may be called “CASH” – er, Catholic Alignments of the Specific Heresies or, to the unwashed masses, just ‘Cash City’.”Its a sad day for America”Ho hum

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:48 pm

Accounting Brothel Opens Doors for Banker FiestaMarch 19 (Bloomberg) — The banks demanded that the accountants give them leeway in how they report losses to investors. The accountants responded by giving away their souls.This week, the Financial Accounting Standards Board unveiled what may be the dumbest, most bankrupt proposal in its 36-year history. If it stands, the FASB ought to change its name to the Fraudulent Accounting Standards Board. It’s that bad.Here’s what the board is floating. Starting this quarter, U.S. companies would be allowed to report net-income figures that ignore severe, long-term price declines in securities they own. Not just debt securities, mind you, but even common stocks and other equities, too.All a company would need to do is say it doesn’t intend to sell them and that it probably won’t have to. In most cases, it wouldn’t matter how much the value was down, or for how long. In effect, a company would have to admit being on its deathbed before the rules would force it to take hits to earnings.So, if these rules had been in place last year, a company that still owned shares of American International Group Inc. or Fannie Mae, for instance, could exclude those stocks’ price declines from net income entirely. It would make no difference that the companies were seized by the government last year, or that both are penny stocks. The loss would get buried away from the income statement, in a balance-sheet line called “accumulated other comprehensive income.”Desperate BankersThese are the earnings we get when the people who write accounting standards give in to desperate bankers. And it’s no mystery why the three FASB members who voted for this — Leslie Seidman, Lawrence Smith and Chairman Robert Herz — did so. (The two who opposed it were Tom Linsmeier and Marc Siegel.)Since the credit crisis began, the board’s members have been under assault by the banking industry and its wholly owned members of Congress. The most recent display came last week at a House Financial Services Committee hearing, where Democratic Representative Paul Kanjorski and other lawmakers beat Herz like a dog. Herz declined my request to be interviewed. A FASB spokeswoman, Chandy Smith, confirmed my understanding of how the rule change would work.The banks want unfettered license to value their assets however they see fit, and to keep burgeoning losses out of their earnings and regulatory capital. The FASB had been holding its ground, for the most part. Now, though, the board has assumed the fetal position.Differing TreatmentUnder the current rules, securities get differing accounting treatments depending on how they are classified on the balance sheet. When labeled as trading securities, they must be assigned marked-to-market values each quarter, with all changes flowing through to net income. Otherwise, changes in value don’t hit the income statement, unless the securities have suffered what the accountants call an “other-than-temporary impairment.”While the term may be cumbersome, the idea is that companies need to show losses in net income once they no longer can pretend that an asset’s plunge in value is only fleeting. Think of a man who gets sent to prison for 20 years. That’s not necessarily a permanent sentence. Yet it’s definitely not temporary.The board’s proposal tosses the old principle aside. Even if a loss is deemed not temporary, companies still would be allowed to keep it out of net income. There’s one exception: If a company holding debt securities concludes some of the decline is due to credit losses, that portion would need to be included on the income statement. Otherwise, the losses stay off.You just know how this will turn out: Debt holders will say their losses almost always are due to something other than credit losses, such as liquidity risk, because it’s impossible to prove their judgments wrong. So the dents to net income will be minimal. That’s exactly what the FASB is trying to accomplish.Investor ProtectionThere is something investors can do to protect themselves: Ignore net income and start focusing on the real bottom line, a term called comprehensive income, which is found on a company’s statement of shareholder equity. General Electric Co., for example, reported $17.4 billion of net income for 2008 — and a comprehensive loss of $12.8 billion.For years, the FASB has used comprehensive income as a dumping ground for losses that it has decided are too politically radioactive to be included on the income statement. These include changes in the values of corporate pension plans, foreign currencies, certain derivative instruments, and securities classified as available for sale. That’s why investors should stop giving credence to net income.They have done this already with Tier 1 capital, the government’s main solvency measure for banks, which ignores lots of losses and treats some types of debt as if they were assets. Nowadays, bank investors are obsessed with a no-frills capital benchmark called tangible common equity. This leaves out intangible assets, such as goodwill from past acquisitions, and preferred stock, which acts like debt and must be repaid before common stockholders can claim any share of a company’s assets.What’s good for the balance sheet is also good for the income statement. Enough with the fluff. Net is dead.The FASB might be, too, if it keeps this up.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aGdxdLHUVGrs#

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 7:50 pm

“General Electric Co., for example, reported $17.4 billion of net income for 2008 — and a comprehensive loss of $12.8 billion.” LOL

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:00 pm

Sounds like a great way to get credit flowing again. Maybe we can value companies and banks by who has the best looking staff. It might be more objective at this point.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:03 pm

We’ll be back in good shape in no time after we give 10 or 20 more trillion to the banks, that will definitely get people to start buying stuff again, don’t worry.

K in TXMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:13 pm

Live goods drop is interesting. Happens to have been my bailiwick for awhile.Browsing through Wal-Mart and a couple of big box ads I was surprised to see a big jump in prices of live goods – 6 packs and 4″ vegetables that have held steady around a dollar for a decade now priced at $3 each.And the thing is, I don’t blame them. Growers margins were cut to the bone dealing with the big box retailers. I worked at a mom and pop nursery for a couple of years and then spent three years working at a big box. I was shocked how tight the margins were…so close to zero. That was in 1997. The run-up in oil and fertilizer prices last year probably put growers negative on some contracts, and gave them leverage to demand higher prices for their product.Cut to this weeks Home Depot ad – 4″ annuals 3 for $1, 4 days only. Looks like they are back to running live goods as loss leaders, at least this weekend, because we were paying growers .45 for 4″ plants 12 years ago.I’m definitely making a trip tomorrow.

HayesMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:31 pm

the network newscasts this evening continue their role as apologists for Obi – brief mention of his affront to the disabled during his appearance on Leno preceded by his righteous rejection of congresses treatment (rejection) of the AIG bonuses (which just days earlier he was leading the charge against).I think he revealed something of his character with his mocking remark regarding Special Olympic athletes.

Tom KMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:34 pm

Here’s my take:Most of the ‘eased’ money goes to buying up F&F mortgages. Why? First, a lot of ‘Alt-A’ are due to reset this summer and that could very well kick off another round of foreclosures. (The Alt-A market is even bigger than subprime.) A high percentage of Alt-A were issued by foreign banks operating in the US – thus the source of this money is foreign. Their interest rates are determined by Libor, not Fed. When they reset, the new interest rates will reflect Libor, which are higher than Fed, and thus will represent a continued high burden these home owners. The aim of the new money is to empower F&F to buy up a large chunk of foreign-issued Alt-A, and reset them according to Fed rate, which as we know is quite a bit lower.The benefits are twofold: Reset the Alt-A to a much lower interest rates and thus arrest the probable second round of foreclosures. Bring a large chunk of this foreign mortgages into US-controlled F&F, which ‘cannot’ default. Foreign banks who sold their Alt-A to F&F thus reduce their risks by holding agency debt. This helps in holding up the dollar. In short, the Fed is using F&F to help avert probable Alt-A crisis.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:48 pm

Geithner sounds like a untrusty weasel that lied about AIG bonus. What do you expect from someone cheated on tax?

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:55 pm

what idiot on TV suggested that france and germany banks got money from AIG should return back to AIG (including Goldman and other banks got money from AIG)??? What kind of idiotic thinking is that???? In pure and simple term, that just mean default and not gonna honor the contract agreement. If we gonna do that to all AIG counter-parties? wouldn’t that cause systemic collapse? then why not just let AIG fail and be done with it, cuz that will be the same thing? Amazing some idiots on TV talking about this.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 8:58 pm

90% tax on bonus money to top executives at financial institutions got money from TARP? will there be 90% tax on money got from AIG thru derivatives collateral call? after all that is TARP money too? some how I will not be surprised that this law get passed overnight in congress.

PeteCAMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:01 pm

I’ve got absolutely no problem with this rule …PROVIDEDthat when I fill out my tax forms this year I’m allowed to declare that all my income can be excluded – because I probably intend to use it in the future some time for nice things (like donations to the Girl Scouts and the Poor Hungry Bankers Trust Fund). :-) PeteCA

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:01 pm

i wont be surprised that there will be talk about asking financial institutions to return the TARP money they got from AIG thru derivative contract collateral call. if they dont return, the congress will pass into law 90% tax on that TARP money.

HayesMarch 20th, 2009 at 9:06 pm

Is this the end of America?By Terence Corcoran 2009 The National Post

U.S. law-making is riddled with slapdash, incompetence and gamesmanshipHelicopter Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve is dropping trillions of fresh paper dollars on the world economy, the President of the United States is cracking jokes on late night comedy shows, his energy minister is threatening a trade war over carbon emissions, his treasury secretary is dithering over a banking reform program amid rising concerns over his competence and a monumentally dysfunctional U.S. Congress is launching another public jihad against corporations and bankers.As an aghast world — from China to Chicago and Chihuahua — watches, the circus-like U.S. political system seems to be declining into near chaos. Through it all, stock and financial markets are paralyzed. The more the policy regime does, the worse the outlook gets. The multi-ringed spectacle raises a disturbing question in many minds: Is this the end of America?Probably not, if only because there are good reasons for optimism. The U.S. economy has pulled out of self-destructive political spirals in the past, spurred on by its business class and corporate leaders, the profit-making and market-creating people who rose above the political turmoil to once again lift the world out of financial crisis. It’s happened many times before, except for once, when it took 20 years to rise out of the Great Depression.Past success, however, is no guarantee of future recovery, especially now when there are daily disasters and new indicators of political breakdown. All developments are not disasters in themselves. The AIG bonus firestorm is a diversion from real issues , but it puts the ghastly political classes who make U.S. law on display for what they are: ageing self-serving demagogues who have spent decades warping the U.S. political system for their own ends. We see the system up close, law-making that is riddled with slapdash, incompetence and gamesmanship.One test of whether we are witnessing the end of America is how many more times Americans put up with congressional show trials of individual business people and their employees, slandering and vilifying them for their actions and motives. And for how long will they tolerate a President who berates business and corporations as dens of crime and malfeasance? If the majority of Americans come to accept the caricatures of business as true, then America is closer to the end of its life as a global leader, as a champion of markets and individualism.But America is at risk in other ways, especially in the technical business of setting and executing policy. The presidency of Barack Obama has set out on a course that has no precedent in U.S. history. Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose New Deal transformed the U.S. economy during the Great Depression, pushed America off on a sharply different political and ideological course. The Obama administration is different in many ways, not least in its supreme self-confidence in its methods and objectives.Reform of health care, environmental policy, education, energy, banking, regulation — every nook and cranny of the U.S. economy has been put on alert for major change. Expansion of government spending, plunging the U.S. into unprecedented deficits, is without parallel. In economic policy, through regulation and control of energy output, financial services and monetary expansion, the U.S. government has embarked on a fundamental reshaping of America. It is designed, in short, to bring on the end of America.The spillover effect of all this on the rest of the world promises to be dramatically disruptive. The greatest global risk is in monetary and currency policy. Below is a chart that graphically demonstrates the sharp deviation in monetary policy from past norms. Under the chairmanship of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a giant economic experiment, flooding the world with U.S. dollars, hoping that flood will stimulate economic activity.The total monetary base, already at astronomical levels, is now expected to take another big hit with the new Fed policy of buying up U.S. longer-term treasury bills in a bid to drive down long-term interest rates.Mr. Bernanke is sometimes known as “Helicopter Ben” because he once in an academic paper referred to the use of “helicopters” full of money to rescue an economy from deflation. In comments Wednesday to explain the Fed’s new policy of buying $300-billion in U.S. treasury bills, Mr. Bernanke noted that the Fed is now more worried about inflation being too low than about it getting too high in the future.For the rest of the world, however, the worry is that America is at risk of becoming the fountainhead of a new inflationary outburst. The U.S. dollar is now in decline, gold is moving sharply higher, and new global currency turmoil is on the horizon.It may not happen. A paper just published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, source of the chart above, says that the Fed will have to be prepared to absorb all the excess money it has poured into the U.S. economy. It will be a technical and political challenge unlike any central bank has ever undertaken. The future of America is at stake.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/03/19/terence-corcoran-is-this-the-end-of-america.aspx

redlegMarch 20th, 2009 at 10:44 pm

While the cup might not seem like zero sum, it probably is – with the caveat that the maximum is extremely large so it seems like an open system until one gets near the limit.

GuestMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:03 pm

Does the Professor’s post on this being a Dead Cat Bounce still hold even with the government’s action on Wednesday?

redlegMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:09 pm

From my engineering perspective, the hyperinflation scenario has a flaw: demand.1. inflation that does not have corresponding wage inflation will crush consumer demand leading to deflation.2. foreign creditors (such as China) have so much invested in US $ that divesting would cause value to plummet and lead to big losses. The US $ is the best of bad options, so demand increases, dollar gets strong (despite US actions) leading to deflation.1+2=deflation death spiral, not hyperinflation.Wage increases have barely matched the cost of living in my working life, so I can’t see how 1. can be false (meaning wage inflation is happening). From what I have seen in the last year is wage cuts, either actual cuts or loss of hours (not to mention loss of jobs). I am not an “expert” in 2. but the finger-wagging “don’t inflate” scolding by Mr. Wen sure sounded like a patient creditor… To me it looks like a deflationary death spiral, not hyperinflation.

ChignosMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

Brett, you parrot Obama. Can’t you think for yourself? Can’t Obama? Wall Streeters perform one of the two essential functions of capitalism: the twin towers of capital and labor make the wealth machine tick.Cat, you misunderstand what wealth is. Wealth is organization. If you put all the pieces together properly, you can have a motorcycle. You can take your girl into a beautiful private forest and kiss her until one thing leads to a creative other. If you’re not organized, you’ll have no wealth, only parts.If you were intellectually honest, you would admit you have no idea what the energy inputs are into this planet. How do you know that fossil fuels aren’t fungible? (look the word up in the dictionary)I’m tired of these poor little rich kids who can’t appreciate the wealth our parents’ generation has provided us. It wasn’t that long ago we Americans wondered at the blessing of being able to cruise down the highway on vacation all day long at 60 mph. Now it’s considered a sin against the planet.Never mind that the science behind global warming is suspect. We wouldn’t want to think that much outside the box, would we? Personally, I like fighter jets, Ackerman. They’ve made it possible for us to blog instead of cleaning out the stables on the fiefdom. if you believe this lie promulgated by the elite-intelligentsia, you’re just one of the many flies on shit.I believe nothing of what I hear and only half of what I see. Americans would be wise to have a more skeptical attitude. Oh, I can hear the howls of protest already, but consider this: If everyone thought the way I do, I’d be a damn fool to think any differently wouldn’t I?

ChignosMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

Brett, you parrot Obama. Can’t you think for yourself? Can’t Obama? Wall Streeters perform one of the two essential functions of capitalism: the twin towers of capital and labor make the wealth machine tick.Cat, you misunderstand what wealth is. Wealth is organization. If you put all the pieces together properly, you can have a motorcycle. You can take your girl into a beautiful private forest and kiss her until one thing leads to a creative other. If you’re not organized, you’ll have no wealth, only parts.If you were intellectually honest, you would admit you have no idea what the energy inputs are into this planet. How do you know that fossil fuels aren’t fungible? (look the word up in the dictionary)I’m tired of these poor little rich kids who can’t appreciate the wealth our parents’ generation has provided us. It wasn’t that long ago we Americans wondered at the blessing of being able to cruise down the highway on vacation all day long at 60 mph. Now it’s considered a sin against the planet.Never mind that the science behind global warming is suspect. We wouldn’t want to think that much outside the box, would we? Personally, I like fighter jets, Ackerman. They’ve made it possible for us to blog instead of cleaning out the stables on the fiefdom. if you believe this lie promulgated by the elite-intelligentsia, you’re just one of the many flies on shit.I believe nothing of what I hear and only half of what I see. Americans would be wise to have a more skeptical attitude. Oh, I can hear the howls of protest already, but consider this: If everyone thought the way I do, I’d be a damn fool to think any differently wouldn’t I?

ChignosMarch 20th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

Brett, you parrot Obama. Can’t you think for yourself? Can’t Obama? Wall Streeters perform one of the two essential functions of capitalism: the twin towers of capital and labor make the wealth machine tick.Cat, you misunderstand what wealth is. Wealth is organization. If you put all the pieces together properly, you can have a motorcycle. You can take your girl into a beautiful private forest and kiss her until one thing leads to a creative other. If you’re not organized, you’ll have no wealth, only parts.If you were intellectually honest, you would admit you have no idea what the energy inputs are into this planet. How do you know that fossil fuels aren’t fungible? (look the word up in the dictionary)I’m tired of these poor little rich kids who can’t appreciate the wealth our parents’ generation has provided us. It wasn’t that long ago we Americans wondered at the blessing of being able to cruise down the highway on vacation all day long at 60 mph. Now it’s considered a sin against the planet.Never mind that the science behind global warming is suspect. We wouldn’t want to think that much outside the box, would we? Personally, I like fighter jets, Ackerman. They’ve made it possible for us to blog instead of cleaning out the stables on the fiefdom. if you believe this lie promulgated by the elite-intelligentsia, you’re just one of the many flies on shit.I believe nothing of what I hear and only half of what I see. Americans would be wise to have a more skeptical attitude. Oh, I can hear the howls of protest already, but consider this: If everyone thought the way I do, I’d be a damn fool to think any differently wouldn’t I?

g AntonMarch 21st, 2009 at 12:37 am

I think that it’s very probable that top level corporate executives have a conflict of interest between what’s good for their company and what’s good for their own personal bank account. If the TALF has restrictions on how much TALF money the executives can sock away for themselves, they will probably quickly lose interest in the TALF.

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 2:09 am

Joe Salatin says that the big mistake is that the bright minds are all taken away from farming, where they are really needed! So, yes, it’s as you say, but probably not as you see/thought.BTW – Jim Rogers is really talking up agriculture. He’s absolutely right.Food, Shelter and Water…Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 2:27 am

Decentralization of power, what a concept! :-) This is the primary (only real) tenant of anarchism. It’s how nature behaves. Centralization requires greater amounts of energy, something that we’re slowly running out of… It’s one reason why I rebuff the One World Government theory.Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 2:37 am

We HAD cheap energy -oil- and look at where we’re at now!I was tracking fusion back in the early 80s. I was real excited about the prospects. But then I saw the big picture. If we had really cheap and abundant energy we’d just create larger populations that would trash the planet, kind of like what we’re seeing now (as a result of fossil fuels).But I agree on the sustainability part. Until we ditch this “growth at all costs” mentality we’re going to continue toward the abyss. NOTE: and then you turn around and jump on the growth bandwagon? Sigh, apparently you haven’t watched Dr. Albert Bartlett’s presentation: it’s absolute viewing for anyone who suggests “solutions” to today’s problems.Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 2:41 am

If you’re a political atheist then why post about politics?Sounds like party politics to me.BTW – The proper term for political atheist would be an anarchist. But claiming this moniker would require you to step up into the big leagues (where few fear tread).Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 2:58 am

LOL!Yes, it’s back to pretending again… Could this be the mother of all moral hazards?They pretended to pay us, so we pretended to work. Sooner or later people will disengage from this dysfunctional system.Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 4:27 am

Ever consider that this is but one big cycle, and that perhaps it’s coming to a close?It’s all about growth. The greater the overall consumption of natural resources the harder it is to add growth.All system fail, eventually.Speaking of big cycles, our inter-glacial period (10,000 to 12,000) is about up. After which, ALL systems that we know/depend upon will cease to exist.Mark

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 4:37 am

Of all that I’ve read or heard Engdahl’s piece makes the most sense. He writes:Fortunately there is a simple way out of the AIG debacle. The US Government can step in and fully nationalize AIG, 100%, kick out responsible management, declare AIG’s CDS contracts null and void and let holders sue the US government to regain value for what were in reality lottery gambles not loans to the real economy. They own 80% so the step is small to 100%. Doing that would end the global market in CDS and open the door for countless legal challenges. But AIG’s counterparties, as we begin to learn, were exactly the big Wall Street players like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, even Deutsche Bank. They have gotten enough taxpayer bailouts to cover their risk in CDS. Let them recognize risk is the heart of banking, not the opposite.Unfortunately, this only clears the deck for a reshuffle. As long as the system is based on growth, and as long as we pretend that this elephant isn’t in the room, we’ll again find ourselves in this situation (though perhaps for the last time?).Mark

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 6:07 am

Bernanke can print as much paper as he wants–Once the effect of the teax break fades, the economy will start deteriorating again at an accelerating pace. At this point they are calling for recovery when this is just a small blip. There is no reason for this not to become a depression. The fundamentals are pretty obvious: the bankupt US consumer. Household worth has decreased dramatically now and the consumers will continue to retrench as they become more aware of how much less their homes– and overall equity– is worth.Obama is playing mind games with American people– now he might back off from the 90 percent tax on bonuses. Why shouldn’t there be political bickering when he promised to the congress that should the car companies demand more money, he will let them file chapter 11. Now he is throwing more money around on cars that apparently consumers don’t want. Once no-one’s buying them, then Obama might as well force consumers to buy them by tarffs on Toyota and others (or else how unproductive all his thrown money will become). Within this lies the recipe for a major depression, the lack of reallocation of capital into productive bussinesses. So, we might have abundant cars that nobody wants to buy and are a waste, soon shoes, leather belts, and sun glasses. After all, no-one has been left alone in the new TALF (even the hedge funds that Obama keeps on abusing!). Ultimately, we will also have the Obama badges, another future unproductive item, shoved down our throats.When they bailed out AIG, the very first one (or was it Fannie and Freddie), there was an uproar and people questioned it. Then came the bazooka of 700 billion tarp and no-one questioned it. Now the TALF is just a normal thing, the people don’t simply want their goverment to work for them, it wants the goverment to work for itself and that is what it is doing.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 6:15 am

I guess Bernanke has two options– deflation or end of dollar’s hegemony. He has chosen the latter. His helicopter comment just sums it up. And between the two questions lies the choice: American people or Wall Street. And he has chosen Wall Street. Because the real worth of their debt will be much reduced but American people will end up much poorer and worse off because of it.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 6:58 am

Hayes, I should have known this was a post from you. You rail and rail and rail against this new administration. It’s like a broken record. You like to point fingers at those in the Obama administration, but where is the finger-pointing at Bush & Co., the progenitors of the worst of the economic crisis.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 7:18 am

I suppose it is because he expected “change” from Obama. When Obama was outside the system, he seemed to have a good critique. As soon as he became part of the system, he started thinking too much like the system. He needs to take Bernanke, Geithner with a grain of salt. The thinking has taken “the” form rather than become a form unto itself. If the system were to be believed, then this crisis was never going to happen. It was only the individualism of people like Roubini who could think outside the box and provide a good critique which saw it coming. That is where I personally feel Obama is wrong. It is hypocritical to abuse the same hedge funds and provide them with aid under TALF. It is also hypocritical to bring the bonuses at AIG under scathing criticism yet “review” it after the congress will have passed a 90 percent tax on them. Whatever be the reasons, but will Obama take a stand or sink with the system? And, again, the firms receiving TALF, what, they might withdraw the receivership of their aid should the bonuses be taxed? What? The govt is forcing this aid upon them? Or they feel they could do whatever they want with impunity and get away with it because the goverment is begging them to take the money?There is something horribly wrong…

MarkMarch 21st, 2009 at 7:21 am

What, are you suggesting that Bush & Co is brought back? No, I didn’t think so.As I’ve been telling people for years now: It’s the system stupid!Doesn’t matter what administration has been or would be in power. They all dance to the same music: growth capitalism. As such they will ALL fail.I already know what the future will be. I don’t need to waste my time beating up on the Obama administration. All I can say is that they are either delusional or crooks: it’s mandatory to be one or the other when achieving this level of power.Soo… Hayes, whatever his position/agenda is, is basically right. Facts are still facts regardless of how many people believe them.Mark

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 7:53 am

read my lip, Ben is not the only one that wants end of dollar’s world status. Obama and Geithner will help him. Look for Geithner’s plan next week to buy up tons of Gozillion toxic waste with concerted help from Ben and Obama administration endorsement.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 7:57 am

Give me a break. Bush is history. Obama and his Democratic gangs are in charge now. They are all voted by American to fix the problem, but they are not charging the nation into new direction. For them, it is still privatize profit and socialize loss. Obama and his Democratic gangs are no different from Bush.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:10 am

yes, things like forcing banks to take TARP money even if they dont need it? or FDIC forcing banks to lend or downgrade their rating? passing stimulus to reward the imprudent and punish the prudent savers? or 90% tax on AIG bonus? those are all moral hazardous. especially 90% tax on AIG bonus, that scares me congress can just cook up new law targeting group of people like that? may be tax hike for group of minority people making $250K/yr will not be enough for Obama administration. may be Obama and his Democratic gangs will lower the amount to $100K/yr. where will it end? the moral hazard is unprecedent except under Obama administration. may be soon they will pass law to round up all wall street people or CEOs of all companies into concentration camp to serve American like slaves for $1/yr due to populous opinion support. Obama and Democratic gangs can very easily turn this into hate movement (which i am seeing it in many of my co-workers) or Nazi movement.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:16 am

I wont be surprise there is gonna be some kind of Democratic labor movement formed to target against talents and intellects of this country. That will scare off private investment out of this country. alots of liberal media are forming this kind of populous opinion against the hard-working and successful people. scary stuff out there.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:20 am

“Obama might as well force consumers to buy them by tarffs on Toyota and others”you are absolutely right. this crazy Obama will not hesitate to do that? and that will force alots of Toyota and others factories close down in USA. and force alots of USA workers out of jobs. this crazy Obama will destroy the market efficiency and create armagedon Depression.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:25 am

just look at $5Billion Obama and Democrats are throwing at the auto parts companies. He will continue to throw money at Big Three to produce cars nobody wants. Ben will prints tons of dollar Billions and Trillion for Obama to throw money at failed institutions. Obama and Democrats will fight the market efficiency force (which is let the failed institutions fail and successful institutions to growth) for next 4 years. oh boy, we will all be trouble.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:39 am

What I meant was, Obama took a stand against the bonuses and he should go along with it. He argued against the gambling nature of hedge funds and he shouldn’t provide them with aid. He should be consistent with what he says, whether he is left-wing or liberterian is relaticely irrelevant. To me it seems that he is fooling main street with poetry and doing everything he can do for wall street. Why? Becuase Bernanke says the financial system is the heart of the economy and untill that is fixed, the world will come to a sudden halt?Well, if Obama thinks that, he is thinking too much like the system. What we need is end to this nonsensical throwing around of money to hedge funds and God knows whichever entities, nationalization of the too-big-to-fail so that American taxpayer isn’t cheated and capitalism saved, 90 percent tax to the bonuses for the companies that receive aid, and the companies that don’t want aid should now get it. The goverment’s role should be to protect the American people and yet at the same time not allow a systematic collapse of the financial system. However, a systematic collapse can be avoided by nationalizing the too-big-to-fail and allowing others to fail. This is more like taking a stand which is not to bolster the wall street but to protect the main street, an individualistic stand, which doesn’t fall in principle to the interests of the very people who cause the crisis with the thought that “this is what will make it work” — in Bernanke’s mind– without and relevance of the moral hazard.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:51 am

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/03/21/mass-hysteria-over-aig-obscures-simple-truths/“if the government can arbitrarily break contracts made by firms in which it has taken a stake no one in his right mind will ever again make a contract with one of those firms. And so all of the banks in which the government has investment will be damaged.”Obama and Democrats is running this countries into ground with YES WE CAN BAILOUT and BREAK UP CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:52 am

private capital, run out of USA. run run. and USA treasury and agency debts holders. run run too.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 8:58 am

“We’re essentially monetizing our country’s debt and deliberately devaluing our country’s currency. We’re also screwing over our foreign creditors”I think we are not just screwing the foreign creditors. we are fighting the foreign creditors now. look for any kind of investment to dry up and FED to print more money out of thin air.

AnonymousMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:22 am

and the contract i had with the u.s.a. has been broken. And now my children and i have to pay these bankers. to hell with just breaking contracts with them i say hang em high. REALLY, END THEM

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:33 am

wow, does Geithner wants to destory FDIC?”The FDIC will provide a low interest non-recourse loan up to 85% of the value of the assets”that is just mad.”Private investors, then, would be contributing as little as 3 percent of the equity, and the government as much as 97 percent.”taxpayer are on hook now. well, Ben will be on hook to print more money now.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:37 am

Clearly, our congressmen and women are not nearly bright enough to be making decisions for this country on complex financial matters. It’s not even a horse race. If they were, they would have never approved the 30 to 1 leverage ratios former treasury secretary Henry “scumbag” Paulson lobbied for and secured on behalf of all his fellow rapacious Wall Street scumbags.They are guilty of being imbeciles, true. But the real, straight-up culpability lies on the creepy shoulders of Henry Paulson and all his ilk. These clowns knew what they were doing, knew the excessive risk and knew that the gov’t would step in given a worse case scenario.What’s truly criminal is that nobody is making a serious call for claw backs of all the money these CEOs earned over the past 4-6 years. Forget the AIG bonuses. That’s chump change.Henry Paulson alone earned hundreds of millions at Goldman in what ultimately proved to be at the taxpayer’s expense. And he clearly orchestrated the first wave of bailout funds to protect his Wall Street minions.Ex treasury secretary Henry “scumbag” Paulson is the poster child for this economic disaster. Wall Street sent him to the hill to get these insane leverage ratios approved that put a sword of Damocles over the entire global economy. We can’t send that piece of crap to jail because he didn’t do anything illegal. But we can sure as hell take steps to take back the hundreds of millions he an others took from the American taxpayer.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:37 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5z1.VcMZHBM“the Fed’s TALF program may lend as much as $1 trillion to investors from hedge funds and pension funds to insurance companies to buy recently created securities backed by loans for car purchases, college education and real estate. “same question, will these hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies subject to 90% bonus tax for receiving money from government?

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:43 am

“I doubt seriously we will ever understand the morality of the $173 billion payment that is the far more serious issue. For instance, Goldman Sachs, which received about 8 percent of the pile, or $13 billion, has claimed publicly that the money was, to them, a matter of indifference, as Goldman had hedged itself against a possible collapse of AIG – by making bets against AIG.Goldman’s ClueThis suggests that it was clear to at least one market player, before the collapse, that AAA-rated AIG was behaving in ways that might lead to its demise – which is to say that there was really no responsible place to lay off these bets. (So why bail out those who made them?)It also suggests that it is a matter of indifference to Goldman Sachs whether AIG lived or died, as either way it was protected. (So why bail it out?)Since the beginning of the crisis I’ve wondered why the government has found neither the will nor the way to attack the root of the problem – the people who borrowed money to buy homes they shouldn’t have bought.Now I think I understand. It would be too simple. People would understand a lot of small payments to the guy down the street who doesn’t deserve them, and become outraged. Far better to throw trillions at opaque corporations, the inner workings of which no one still really understands. “.hahahahhahahahah…. go back to sleep. we’ll take care of the money. and the contracts …etchahahahhahahaha… we steal it fare and square.

HayesMarch 21st, 2009 at 9:50 am

PS. my name is Hayes not Corcoran (the author of the article I posted last night)My political orientation is generally well to the left of center but I don’t by the Obama propaganda – IMHO he is indeed taking on too much at one time; his resources are inadequate and like Bush appears to have surrounded himself with ideologues. But in his case instead of neo-cons such as Paul Wolfowitz, we are blessed with the likes of Larry Summers who presided over the dismantling of Glass-Steagall (link).The circus that Congress has become, led by Dodd (also a Glass-Steagall alumnus), is creating a situation where confidence in leadership at this critical juncture is all but gone. The AIG bonus debacle, initially a red herring to distract from the tens of billions funneled to the banksters backfired on Obama when it is he who signed the Stimulus bill that included the “Dodd/Getithner Ammendment”. Instead it revealed the self-righteous hypocrisy of our leadership, though they are doing their best to back peddle.The bottom line is that there is a serious leadership vacuum and the evidence is mounting that the person in charge lacks the management skills, values and most importantly the leadership skills to guide the country out this morass. But at least he was funny during his appearance on Leno, if taking cheap shots at the disabled can be considered funny.Now that I have that off my chest it’s back the beach, actually I’m on the beach as I write this. Time for a refill of my coffee cup as I continue to prowl the blogs and news sites.On a “positive” note it looks like Turbo will be coming out with some details of the Public Private Partnership to deal with the Toxic assets (PPPT) on Monday (probably will be leaked Sunday), which could be good for a few hundred points on the Dow.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:17 am

The Public Private Investment Fund will rely on the FDIC. We have to also remember that private capital can know own33% non-voting stock in banks without trigerring the bankholding company regulations. The FDIC is the “new FLSIC”.The most logical instrument for dumping on the Taxpayer isthe FDIC. After it is done. The beneficiaries will rail againstthe liberal FDIC. We are being set up to have the mother ofall bailouts by way of the FDIC. The banks controlled by private capital and hedge funds will gamble big time with FDIC insured money, and will pass on losses. The FDIC and TALF will backstop the PPIF. All this machinations bear an uncanny resemblance to the Savings and Loan Crisis. The Resolution Trust Corporation gave away assets to insiders. “Nothing isnew under the sun” Shakespeare. LOOTING, LOOTING, LOOTING,by the “men behind the curtain”.

HayesMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:23 am

So Goldman covered themselves with a hedge on their AIG exposure but also collected their $13 billion from Turbo. It is no wonder why their share price has doubled since hitting bottom. Will the media / public / politicians express any outrage on this double dip?

HayesMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:31 am

via NCMother of All Stealth Scams?Earlier this week, Michael Hudson wrote an excellent comment in counterpunch, The Real AIG Conspiracy:It may seem odd, but the public outrage against $135 million in AIG bonuses is a godsend to Wall Street, AIG scoundrels included. How can the media be so preoccupied with the discovery that there is self-serving greed to be found in the financial sector? Every TV channel and every newspaper in the country, from right to left, have made these bonuses the lead story over the past two days.What is wrong with this picture? Is there not something over-inflated about the outrage led most vociferously by Senator Charles Schumer and Rep. Barney Frank, the two leading shills for the bank giveaways over the past year? And does Pres. Obama perhaps find it convenient that finally, at long last, he has been able to criticize something that he believes Wall Street has done wrong?Even the Wall Street Journal has gotten into the act….

HayesMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:34 am

and from NC comment section this article from Rolling Stone no lessThe Big Takeover The global economic crisis isn’t about money – it’s about power. How Wall Street insiders are using the bailout to stage a revolutionIt’s over — we’re officially, royally f…

HayesMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:41 am

and this from NC – talk about working overtimePrivate Public Partnership Details Emerginghe New York Times seems to have the inside skinny on the emerging private public partnership abortion program. And it appears to be consistent with (low) expectations: a lot of bells and whistles to finesse the fact that the government will wind up paying well above market for crappy paper.Key points:The three-pronged approach is perhaps the most central component of President Obama’s plan to rescue the nation’s banking system from the money-losing assets weighing down bank balance sheets, crippling their ability to make new loans and deepening the recession….The plan to be announced next week involves three separate approaches. In one, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will set up special-purpose investment partnerships and lend about 85 percent of the money that those partnerships will need to buy up troubled assets that banks want to sell….and I thought we’d have to wait till Sunday

blind muleMarch 21st, 2009 at 10:44 am

h,the financial crime of the last two centuries, ongoing! outrage or revolution.the fbi is on it? the justice department? somebody had better be. congress?all these “institutions” cannot be blind to what every citizen can see. if theyremain so the laws of nature will see they are removed.

blind zombieMarch 21st, 2009 at 11:07 am

@ n.r.where is the “triage”? that seemed likea fundamentally important part of any correctiveintervention. oh well.

GuestMarch 21st, 2009 at 11:54 am

No question about it, Paulson is a huge c-sucking scumbag. But it was the SEC that he successfully lobbied for the elimination of net capital rules, not Congress. So actually, Paulson is the biggest Cox sucker on earth, since Cox was in charge at the time. And the two of them should go down in history books together as the biggest villains in this global calamity.

genedioMarch 22nd, 2009 at 2:10 am

Lots of good comments here, as also at the business sites. People are really waking up to the plunder, or rather the moral hazard. Both Prof. Roubini and Ferguson attribute the cause of the crisis to implied or actual bailouts. Robini calls it a welfare state for the rich, for the well-connected and for Wall Street. Ferguson asks who is to defend the public interest– the investment bankers, the hedge fund managers, or “your” elected representatives.Unfortunately, the officials may have been elected, but theu are not by and large “ours”. They have been purchased by the special interest money that accounts for the majority of campaign contributions in our elections. This is at the heart of the crisis–what Roubini terms corporate welfare–a welfare vastly more expensive and concentrated than that which Clinton ended some 12 years ago.Ferguson blamed four entities he said played a major role in the financial collapse: the Federal Reserve, the SEC, Congress and the White House.The first two are appointed by the latter two, so the ball is really in the people’s court–Congress and the executive branch. In a democracy you get that government which you deserve…or increasingly, what your betters pay for. The system is designed to reward risk taking and not cautious saving. Certain risky behaviors like over-priced housing are subsidized over more productive behaviors like savings and investment in production of tradable goods. The mortgage interest deduction and capital gains tax exclusion ensured that we would eventually have a giant housing bubble. Securitization and the precedent of the 1980s S&L bailouts ensured that this housing bubble would be larger than any that came before it. Greenspan was there to spike the punch rather than take the punchbowl away. The auditor client relationship of the ratings agencies ensured that their ratings would be as fraudulent as Arthur Andersen’s auditing of Enron. In short, there were no circuit breakers to hinder the bubble which Greenspan frankly said was not the Fed’s job to prevent.Self interest swamped intellectual honesty.

Little SaverMarch 22nd, 2009 at 4:17 am

Basic physics. Open systems/closed systems: open thermodynamic systems exchange heat, light, or matter with their surroundings, closed systems do not. No outside energy flows into a closed system. Earth is an open system; it receives outside energy from the Sun.Facts are facts in physics.

GuestMarch 22nd, 2009 at 9:18 am

Where is the judicial branch of our government in review constitutionality of Fed/Treasury actions against the citizens of USA? Asleep, enabler?

GuestMarch 22nd, 2009 at 9:18 am

Where is the judicial branch of our government in review constitutionality of Fed/Treasury actions against the citizens of USA? Asleep, enabler?

MarkMarch 22nd, 2009 at 4:35 pm

A problem with this mentality is that it suggests/leads us to believe that we have an infinite amount of energy. Well, yes, in a matter of speaking, until the sun burns out. But it’s metered. We only get so much energy from the sun each day. Our current energy requirements exceed the daily amount of energy coming in from the sun.Another problem that I often see is that people forget about the fact that the earth’s system requires a fair amount of the energy from the sun. Yes, it’s not all “ours!” For example, cover the planet with solar panels and tell me what will happen to life on this planet without that solar energy being absorbed by the planet? We shouldn’t be so cavalier in our thinking. As they say, “god” set things up for a reason: we muck with it at our own peril.Mark

GuestMarch 22nd, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Actually, it was William H. Donaldson who was chairman of the SEC at the time. No matter, Paulson is a gigantic scumbag and deserves to die a horrible death.

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