there was a similar article in the WSJ today predicting a likely sub-6000 move in the Dow in the coming months. however, as prof. roubini states, the Dow is among the least of our worries. double-digit unemployment, deflation, societal disintegration in emerging markets (mexico anyone?)…the list goes on. if you are worried about the dow, consider yourself lucky.

Roubini: “The trouble with that argument is that, with the US and global economy in a massive slump and with deflationary forces at work it is hard to believe that a massive economic recovery will occur in 2010 thus lifting sharply earnings”Indeed, the problem is that the USA has not even commenced the re-structuring period that is necessary for our industry to come back to life. And likewise, the world has not even begun the real moves to establish a new base of global consumers.We are still in the early phases of the economic drawdown … still in the part where the old economic structures are breaking down and decaying. That’s just one reason why the Obama stimulus plans are actually not helpful. They are simply postponing the inevitable adjustment that must be made. The USA needs to take a big step in a new direction, but instead we’re shooting ourselves in the foot with stimulus plans that divert money into the wrong economic pathways.This is a very tough time for Americans who lose their jobs … because they next job they take (full-time or part-time) could also be threatened in a few months. Americans will have to get by in “survival mode” for a long period of time. The period of real adjustment is going to be a long, drawn out affair.PeteCA

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS – A L E R T – March 9, 2009 – Broad Money Supply Growth Slows in February, Suggesting Intensifying Systemic-Solvency Issues – Fed Likely to Monetize Treasury Debt – Other Than Crisis-Driven Dollar Demand, U.S. Dollar Fundamentals Are Sharply Negative and Deteriorating

…Thanks primarily to the short-term impact of sharp declines in oil and related gasoline prices in the second half of 2008, annual inflation in consumer prices (as measured by the CPI-U for January) effectively was zero. Such would be in the 3% to 8% range based on earlier reporting methodologies. Although both oil and gasoline prices rose in January, oil fell in February…The long-term problem for inflation is in strong growth in the broad money supply. Even with the current slowing of annual growth to around 9.9%, such is inflationary, particularly where monetary velocity (money growth turnover relative to nominal GDP) likely is neutral at present. Beyond the intensifying systemic solvency crisis, however, another factor may be at work.The slowing in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) annual growth reported in the fourth quarter GDP, and in the quarterly contraction reported for that period, may be accelerating and dragging on M3 growth in the first-quarter, with lowered loan demand. Where money supply times velocity equals GDP, by definition, and GDP is composed of inflation and inflation-adjusted growth. It is possible to have rising inflationary pressures with inflation-adjusted GDP contracting versus a growing money supply, which appears to be happening.Eventually, as discussed earlier, the Fed should succeed in boosting broad money growth significantly. That, and an eventual dollar sell-off, still should have inflation at unusually high levels by year-end. If dollar has turned to an outright dollar panic by then, the groundwork would be in place for the onset of a hyperinflation…

from the prior threadan interesting article from Henry BlodgetHow Low Can The Market Go?http://www.businessinsider.com/new-low-on-shiller-pe-12x-normal-trough-low-is-8x-2009-3

But extra question is to look at P/E’s for stocks on a global basis. Some of the global markets have been hammered a lot more than the US market (so far).PeteCA

I wondered why the market sold off a bit in the past few minutes – but see that President Obama is speaking – has anyone else noticed that just about every time he comes on the market sells off no matter what the topic.

But began with significantly larger P/E’s … It would be great to have a trustworthy reference for the earnings of various world indexes, akin to Shiller’s for the S&P. Anyone care to make some recommendations?

Roubini on CNBC sometime between 1pm and 2pm EDT today

What would I do if I lost my job today?First, I would pray. I would apply for my unemployment insurance. Then, if I had no savings, I would take a job, any job. Then, I would begin perusing the Internet and the library looking at Help Wanted ads in newspapers around the country. And consult employment agencies.I would look into renting a room or two of my home. If I had to move and couldn’t sell my house I would rent it out, and use the rent money to find some sort of shelter where I found a job. I would cut living expenses to the bare bones.But up front in my mind would always be the axiom that has served me well all my life: GO WHERE THE JOBS ARE. Don’t insist on squatting where you are.Let me tell you a story.In 1996, a young skilled craftsman was doing a small remodeling job for me, working for peanuts. He had apprenticed under his uncle, a custom-home builder par excellence. He had been out of work for two years. He was 27 years old, living in a rental with his younger brother in this coastal resort. Both were living on food stamps and his brother’s restaurant pay. He and others, in a down turn, had worked two years on a promise-to-pay by the builder of a contracted multi-million dollar home. But the builder declared bankruptcy after the house was finished — and paid no one. My young builder’s credit stopped cold because he couldn’t pay his bills. Thereafter, he couldn’t buy building materials on credit for future jobs. Work dried up.He languished two years.And this is what I told him: You love it here and want to stay. Then come back when you’re old and retired. Now, you must GO WHERE THE JOBS ARE.Now listen to this.WITHIN A MONTH he had a job with a builder in a large coastal city 80 miles away. He was given raises. At the end of a year, he met a young accountant; they married and moved to Seattle. She and he became self-employed as building contractors – she ran the business and the books, he did the building.And, then, his parents moved from New Orleans to Seattle to be near their two sons – and their families.NOTE: Don’t apply for jobs one at a time and wait to hear. Apply for as many jobs as you possibly can. Get professional help, from the Internet perhaps, in making your resume fit what employers are looking for from you. When you interview with a company, be sure that you have studied the details of the companies products and its current position in the market, including a detailed look at its website (you can probably be assured that the candidate before you and the candidate after you have).

The Cute girl friend is what got a lot of us into this mess!!! Don’t need another one.

1996, this ain’t.

Abby Cohen lives in a glass bubble if she thinks investors are going to assign a multiple of 17 or more to earnings.

JESSE JAMES WAS NOT A CAPITALISTWe aren’t going to solve our arguments as people of goodwill until we can agree on the meanings of the terms we use. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s actions can’t be called capitalism and Juan Peron’s policies can’t be called socialism.I think we all can agree that a very desirable economic system was responsible for the explosive growth in America’s gross national product. And I think we can agree that free enterprise provided for that growth with government policies that both protected and allowed that freedom.When John Jacob Astor became Eighteenth Century America’s richest man with techniques such as buying the Indians’ beaver furs with trinkets and rum and selling the furs to European hat makers at a thousand percent profit, he primarily built Astor GNP not U.S. GNP. America grew, not from market exploitation like the Astors’ New York tenement enterprises or J.P. Morgan’s U.S. steel monopoly, but from the millions of honest workers and entrepreneurs whose efforts at building their own estates helped their neighbors’ estates grow as well.Capitalism is where the means of production are owned by private persons and operated for profit. Yes, Astor and Morgan were capitalists, but they exploited the opportunities capitalism offers by paying politicians to help them deny these opportunities to other men.John D. Rockefeller shut out competitors so he could force the public to pay any price he selected, rather than a price the market would set. Bill Gates pressures Congress so he can “lawfully” keep higher paid Americans off his payroll.Goldman Sachs, now, with paid politicians on board, literally picks the winners and losers in our economic society for its personal benefit. Perhaps that’s one of the greatest ever abuses of our system.Our economic system, capitalism, has produced our growth in spite of these incredible abuses. Private bankers use their property and power to make obscene profits…only after they have had laws changed and greased palms to shut out competitors and transfer the public’s money to their accounts.Was Jesse James a capitalist? No, whether you put on a mask, stop the train and ride away with the mail or you regulate a country’s currency to put inflation bucks in your pocket, the process is the same.Grand larceny is not capitalism!Finally, we must stop people from identifying these abuses with capitalism, the process that has produced America’s miracle. What a tragedy if they further close out the opportunities for millions of Americans, and millions as yet unborn.

5)Huge increase in home value6)Great returns on 401Ks

Did you work as hard on your tips for the question, as I did?

Just a polite way of pointing a gun at the public and saying, Hands up, suckers, we’re going to take your money.

I sent a similar message to the DR three months ago. Nouriel’s aversion to the D word and reluctance to acknowledge the L shaped recovery has been puzzling to me. Maybe he is not Dr. Doom after all?

been waiting to hear from you for several days, ptm. all i know is that when i pay $98.67 to the vet for a six months’ supply of Frontline Plus For Dogs 45-88 lbs. for flea and tick control, something is amiss.

How Low Can The Market Go?*

To think of it unemployment has only increased (I predicted 9 percent by July and close to 11 percent by the end of the year), so mortgage defaults and loan defaults would increase. Secondly, home-values have another 15 percent to go. Thirdly, commercial real estate is beginning to unravel. Fourthly there is a financial crisis in emerging europe which could well affect US banks. Fifthly, there is a whole barrage of insolvent, zombie banks alive and no-one knows which are sound and which need to go. Lastly, companies like GM could file bankruptcy protect, which though not catastrophic, could add to the economy’s woes. I don’t see how the financial system can recover just in 6 months when above all is put together. Throwing money around is clearly not the solution, if the bad banks are kept alive, this will become an abyss and no amount of money printed will be enough.

Why does Geithner not have a staff????…because it’s easier to orchestrate a HEIST as the Lone Bankster….Excerpt:A report by a House oversight panel, which was described to The Washington Post in advance of its release this week, raises questions about a $8billion financing deal for Dubai by Citigroup (recipient of at least $45 billion in bailout funds); a $1 billion investment in India by J.P. Morgan(which got $25 billion from the government rescue); and a $7 billion investment in China by Bank of America (which got $45 billion from the bailout).”When the American people find that their tax dollars, which were supposed to be used to get us out of this financial crisis, instead are being used toship jobs and investments overseas, there will be outrage,” said Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (D-Ohio), chairman of the domestic policy subcommittee for theHouse Oversight and Government Reform Committee. The report is a memo by that panel’s Democratic staff.Source:Oversight of Bank Bailouts CriticizedHouse Panel Faults Treasury for Not Forcing Firms to Reveal Overseas Dealshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/08/AR2009030802149_pf.html

As O’Reilly inadvertently once said, Barney Frank doesn’t care about the mess he’s made, he may WANT to go to jail.

Liquidity trap in pictures:http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS?cid=123http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGAMBSL?cid=124The helicopter is the only option now, but helicopter money doesn’t circulate for long. As money flows through broken financial intermediaries (as it almost inevitably will), it is getting dumped in the vault. The Fed can’t increase the money supply to stave off a debt deflation spiral so long as financial intermediaries are hoarding out of fear.Until the banks are fixed, the economy will continue in an accelerating downward spiral.

Thanks!

MAINSTREAM MEDIA’S SOLUTION TO A 32% HOUSING GLUT IN AMERICAAdd more immigration.See the horrifying proof:http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/204158/The-American-Economy-What-the-Jobs-Housing-Numbers-Really-Mean?tickers=%5Edji,%5Egspc,XHB,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,IVZThis brainless same old, same old flawed economic model of growing ourselves out of the depression is what caused the depression; and its obvious to me and most Americans, adding more immigration caused our problem today and adding even more will destroy America.All of the present stimulus money should go to creating good paying and longterm industrial base jobs with manufacturing in America again, that will get present American population out buying the 32% excess, in time [building roads, keeping teachers working, Medicaid help, etc, are not longterm jobs].Adding more immigration just weakens an already destroyed labor market; and the added immigration will just be living in cardboard homeless sheters anyway. How can they get a job to buy the excess homes, when there aren’t any jobs?What’s Diane smoking?

This person is lucky it was 1996 and not this year, being a building contractor and all. You should pay attention to the fact that THERE ARE NO JOBS, ONLY LAYOFFS at the moment. I speak from experience.

He certainly is not, though his data is well worth paying attention to.But there is too much he misses. Just look at this earnings data direct from Standard & Poors: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLSOur current P/E is 40, using as-reported earnings and is 14 using operating earnings. That’s with a current level of 700 for the S&P 500 and Q4 earnings – 98% reported.Notice the negative earnings for Q4.

A good quote from John Hussman in his March 9′th commentary:”The course of defending the bondholders of insolvent institutions is not sustainable. Do the math. The collateral behind private market debt is being marked down by easily 20-30%. That debt represents about 3.5 times GDP. That implies collateral losses on the order of 70-100% of GDP, which itself is $14 trillion. Unless Congress is actually willing to commit that amount of public funds to defend the bondholders of mismanaged financials so they can avoid any loss, this crisis simply cannot be addressed through bailouts. Bondholders have to take losses. Debt has to be restructured. There is no other option – but the markets are going to suffer interminably until our leaders figure that out.”There is a tangible change to a lot of financial commentaries at this time. Hussman is becoming more pessismistic (professional, but losing hope). Some other commentators are specially calling for a US depression.The market is again testing that 6500 level on the Dow today. This is a bottom on a short-term trading channel (it has no deeper significance). The Dow bounced off the mark at the end of last week. A clear break below 6500 could signal a more volatile and sudden drop to lower levels.Part of the market weakness is undoubtedly due to a lot of short positions, from banks and hedge funds that are shorting individual stocks (hedging losses), and individual investors in inverse ETF’s.But another factor could be … that investors have lost faith in stocks at this time – and are some people cashing them in to pay off personal debts. This means that indivduals are taking “hardship payouts” from their 401K’s, or cashing in any personal mutual funds that they’ve got, and paying credit card debt and mortages with the money.PeteCA

Good for you, Fred. And thanks! Your verification supports the information upon which I was basing my decisions.

“Will” or “Can”?Marc Faber Says Government Actions Will Boost StocksMarch 9 (Bloomberg) — Government spending will spur gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after it fell 56 percent from an October 2007 record, investor Marc Faber said.“Equities could rally between here and the end of April,” Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The government’s efforts will fail to boost economic activity. They can boost stocks. Stocks have adjusted meaningfully.”Faber said that although the S&P 500 may drop 27 percent to below 500 before the bear market ends, investors will make money over the next 10 years…http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeDRhNolpJIg&refer=home

Enough With the ‘Diversity’by Walter BlockMarch 9, 2009 — We have way too many faculty committees.Attracting and retaining a freshman class depends in large part on the reputation of the faculty. One of the measures of the latter is the quality and quantity of their publications.How sitting for interminable hours in silly and useless committee meetings will help promote that goal is beyond me.While I’m on the subject of academic committees needing to be disbanded, I vote for the Diversity Task Force.Late last semester they publicly and unjustifiably savaged me based not on what I had said or written, but rather on the basis of what a journalist said about me.Here is part of their statement:“In reference to the Times Picayune article, “A Tough Sell in the Market Place of Ideas” by James Gill dated Nov 26, 2008.“As Loyola University’s Diversity Committee, we are dedicated to promoting an appreciation for the valuable contributions of all, instilling in every one of our students a desire to pursue excellence and to be women and men in solidarity with others. We also hold to the Jesuit ideal of rigorous intellectual examination in the pursuit of truth and therefore, defend the right of academic freedom. However, it is our responsibility to respond critically to statements made by members of Loyola University that run counter to our commitment to inclusion and that marginalize women and African Americans, a majority of our community.“Professor Walter Block’s reductionist statements about the productivity of African Americans and women in the marketplace ignore critical factors and structural patterns of inequality. His flawed remarks are dangerous, fueling those with prejudices to confirm their biased views. We must recognize the reality of racism and sexism in our society, whose impact has had long-lasting consequences in the lives of African Americans and women.Affirmative Action/Diversity Task Force: Ted Quant, Lydia Voigt, Wing Fok, Lisa Martin, Al Alcazar, James Hobbs, Kurt Bindewald, Artemis Preeshl, Karen Reichard, Anthony Decuir”Note that their charges are buttressed with no evidence at all. That is, they do not directly quote any of my publications or speeches and characterize them as racist or sexist. None of them had attended the lecture James Gill wrote about in the Picayune.Nevertheless, they in effect accuse me of demeaning or deprecating our female and black students.I have been gathering letters from such former students of mine, asking in effect for letters of reference in this regard. So far, the result has been overwhelming: these accusations are entirely false.Wing Fok, one of the signatories to this document and a colleague of mine at the business school, wrote me saying that the burden of proof does not rest with this Task Force to prove racism and sexism on my part; rather, it lies with me to deny such charges.Nonsense.But even if true, why did not this Task Force then ask me to address them regarding the remarks I made at the speech I gave at Loyola College of Maryland?Most unfairly, these charges were brought before the entire Loyola University New Orleans community; I was denied a chance to respond.I am very grateful to The Maroon for giving me this opportunity to do.On Wednesday March 25, 2009, at 7 p.m. in Nunemaker Auditorium, Loyola University New Orleans, I will give (roughly) the same speech I gave at Loyola College in Maryland on November 6, 2008; this is the one that was seized upon for criticism by the forces of political correctness. Here, I will address the charges of this Task Force. In addition, I will elaborate upon theories that attempt to explain the pay gap between whites and blacks of some 30%.It would appear they favor diversity of gender, race, sexual orientation, ethnicity, etc., but not concerning intellectual matters.This article appeared in the Loyola Maroon.Dr. Block is a professor of economics at Loyola University New Orleans, and a senior fellow of the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

Louise Yamada expect 6000 be 1st stop for DOW and 4000 be the 2nd stop.

You have a link somewhere to her latest, WAWAWA?I like this lady’s calm and accurate analasys as I like the more frivolous way of accurate technical charts analysis of Nicole Elliot.

Mayan callender ends in 2012:)

Found it myselfhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1054650849&play=1

and I just found the video at Fund My Mutual Fund, with these comments:http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/03/louise-yamada-sheeeees-back.html….what does she see going forward?Unfortunately patterns in the S&P don’t translate into good news. Yamada sees a clear 10 year double-top and suggests we probably have further to fall.“Now that the 2002 lows have given way we have further to go, she says. “The first targets are 6,000 in the Dow and 600 in the S&P and the second target, I hate to say it, could be 4,000 and 400.”To support here thesis she points to trends that happened immediately following the Crash of 1929. Wealth destruction didn’t actually occur at the crash. It happened after a bounce in 1930 and lasted well into 1933.If you’re looking for a survival strategy Yamada says it’s important to be holding cash. “And if you get into this market make sure it’s with a trailing stop.”

Criminal ActivityMarch 9 (Bloomberg) — Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, and General Electric Capital Corp. raised a combined $16.5 billion today selling bonds backed by the U.S. government as they seek to hold down borrowing costs.Where is the outrage!!

The stuff is just an organophosphate insecticide. Buy generic at Walmart, and you’ll save $90.

What a good idea! Your’s and Guess’ post also inspired me to look around on the web — and that’s the last time I’ll be paying $96+ for 6 paks of Frontline Plus. Keep those tips and generics coming: maybe I’ll beat this inflation game, yet!! :>)

Oh, there’s all sorts of generic molecules masquerading as proprietary compounds these days. Ask for generics at the pharmacy too. I have the formulas for windex and baking powder too.

This program has been going on since October. One of many Fed programs to replace the private credit markets.What all these programs do is to just add to the default risk of the government. Governmental entities are at default risk in many ways:- The FDIC guarantees many more deposits than its reserve fund can pay. Therefore it is just an implicit guarantee that the government will print money to pay in the event defaults exceed its reserve. These programs add to that (along with other new programs, such as TALF, whereby even hedge funds can access FDIC guarantees)- State guarantee funds for insurance annuities similarly cannot begin to hope to pay what is guaranteed in them.What bothers me is even so called ‘conservative’ financial advisors continue to advise people to seek out FDIC and state guaranteed annuities. They must realize somewhere in the back of their minds that such guarantees have at least some chance of being absolutely worthless in a really bad U.S. default scenario. Or, when the government decides to take it upon themselves to redistribute what people have in savings ‘in the public interest’. Remember how gold was confiscated in the GD? Suppose they decided your FDIC guarantee was only worth it up to a certain amount, and after that, well, the money is more needed elsewhere anyway.This is essentially what they are doing with debt now. If yours is paid or you are not in distress, in effect your payments are going to others who are not paying or who are in distress. This is because the banks will forgive some portion of their loans, thereby using money you have paid them to pay off others debts. The money they redistribute in this way has to come from somewhere. Guess what, it came from you. If they can redistribute debt in this way, why not savings as well?Its a slippery slope and we lost our footing on it a while back.

If the financial system melts down, what does that mean on a practical, day-to-day basis? Will insured deposits (FDIC, SIPC) still be safe? Businesses will still exist and people will still go to work, no? I’m looking for serious responses here.

At last! The above article seems to have the look of the long-awaited blow for states rights. This is one of the most important movements on the horizon in years! More is being done to stop the increased central control of our government than many of us have realized.Thank God!

Morbid said:”Christ said that the poor will always be with you. There is always a pecking order on the food chain. Embrace the limitations of our reality.”I say:Please embrace the unlimited potential of our ultimate reality.

Gratified to see my state listed already.Thanks for linking this!

For those that have multiple pets, you can buy the large dog size of Advantage and syringe out the amount you need for smaller animals, this works for cats also if you have multiples. Have been doing it for years, have never used Frontline.

m & g,i agree. and would suggest one consider the possibilitythat the “poor” referred to in the quote is the povertyin the hearts and minds of all people and not a socioeconomic reference. this is a poverty we can resolve / solve.instantly. then take it from there.literal interpretations ? misleading!

I’m no expert, but have been working to educate myself since 2007 when it became clear to me we’re heading for some major trouble. This blog has been a great source of information and I’m very grateful to Prof. Roubini and all who post here. Thank you!When it does melt down I expect “normal” financial transactions to cease for a period of time — probably a week to maybe as long as month while the govt. attempts to take control of the machinery, assess the true extent of the damage, and begin to bring it back up again in a limited way. This will almost certainly effect all electronic transctions — ATM’s, debit/credit card terminals in retail locations, payroll deposits, insurance payments, etc. One should keep enough cash on hand to get through this period. One should also expect a lot of shell shocked folks to be in a desperate situation because they didn’t prepare for the near-term impact. After I’ve taken care of my own family I hope to be able to help friends who get caught by surprise.If the shutdown goes longer than about a week, I expect interruptions in deliveries of food, gas, etc., because there will be issues in processing payments among suppliers. This is more challenging than than loss of currency because it’s literally the stuff we need to survive. So even if you have currency it will become increasingly difficult to find the stuff you need.As far as funds in banks, investment accounts, etc., I expect those to be covered up the the FDIC limits, but you’ll need thorough documentation and a lot of patience to be made whole. Anything over the FDIC limit goes away. I believe even if the damage is beyond anyone’s wildest expectations the US govt. will back the FDIC insured deposits rather than risk social upheaval on top of economic collapse. But it will come at a very high price, through the govt. printing presses. What at this point is looking like a deflationary trend would probably turn quickly into hyperinflation, and at that point those who’ve been laying in physical supplies of precious metals will be protected to some extent. Everyone else has big problems. This will likely result in social unrest and extreme political pressure to address social needs and provide a glimmer of hope for a better tomorrow. Based on historical precedents in those kinds of situations, I’d be very concerned about what might arise. This goes double for other parts of the world that are less politically stable and highly exposed to the same dynamics going on in the US.Again, I’m as clueless as the next guy about predicting the future, but these are common themes as I’ve notices as I try to figure out how to plan for a potential catastrophe that unfortunately seems to be increasing in likelihood.So, I’m trying to stay a step or two ahead, do what I can to get ready without causing my family undue concern, taking care of my health – exercising, eating well, and maintaining a positive attitude. That’s about all I can do and in a weird way the increasing clarity of the situation — despite the extremely serious implications — is somehow reassuring.Best to you and all the contributors/readers of this blog. God bless.

Take a look at the chart in the article at the following link:http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCcs.php?e=trueYou tell me. In your opinion, are retail sales in the USA probably headed down or up? Quite seriously, it looks like we’re nowhere near the bottom of the cutback in consumer spending at this stage. And why? Because Americans all across the country are deeply involved in the process of paying back all their (overextneded) debts. And until this is done – don’t expect much of a recovery.So the steel idea … likely a false hope.And your concern about crashing commerical real estate – very valid.PeteCA

We are seeing a transformation of the economy from the Industrial Revolution. That transformation could be a long decline or hopefully into a new revolution, one in which others have called the Hydrogen Revolution, as presented in the book “Eating the Sun.”Why this revolution?Presently, the total energy consumption on planet earth is 13 TerraWatts (TW) per year. When the rest of the planet catches up, it will be 40TW, –as long as Americans reduce their energy usage by a third (If the rest of the world all use energy like us, it would require 100TW.). So at present rate of energy extraction, we would need 27TW of power to meet demographics in the next 20-50 years.Our planet, via photosynthesis, generates roughly 130TW per year. Human implemented photosynthesis (wheat, rice, soy, sugar cane etc) is roughly between 15TW to 30TW.30 years ago, scientist at UC Berkeley was able to induce algea to produce pure hydrogen by interrupting the photosynthesis cycle. Recently, MIT figured a way to generate hydrogen using an inorganic catalyst: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/21155/So what we need is a combination of organic and inorganic photosynthesis to generate hydrogen as an energy source (with of course oil, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal).Why hydrogen?When it burns you simply have water, no CO2 left over. At present amount, the CO2 in the air is 375 PPM. About 100 million years ago, it was 600 PPM. However, the rate of increase was spread out over millions of years. At the rate of generation by humans, we would get there in less than 100 years. The problem with generation of 600PPM in the atmosphere is that there are effects we had best not find out.So by generating hydrogen we can win on three issues:1. we would be in the lead again, as we were in the last 100 years in the Oil Economy. This will ensure that the dollar will remain the reserve currency, and of course the growth of the dollar must be tied to the energy produced by the US rather than generated by financial engineers on Wall Street;2. we would be able to generate enough energy to meet the needs of the planet in the next 20-50 years3. we would be able to reduce the rate of increase in CO2.Yet, I have not heard or seen anything from our government on anything similar to this.Hence, as long as there are no visions (and plenty of tax cheats, liars, and embezzlers) from our leaders on (a) how to fix this cancer in the financial system, and (b) how to maintain our lead in the world, people will have to resort to a hand-to-mouth type of existence.

South Dakota passed their resolution today, but for those of you who are excited about this, you need to realize that none of the states are trying to pass anything that has the force of law – everything is just a “resolution” or that states version of a resolution. And at last count, it’s over 20 states that have put forward this type of measure.there’s definitely some discontentment out there. who knows how far this can go?

When are we going to get off our dead asses and put a stop to this? Blogging will not cut it. We had better do something. We are going down as I type.

At least it’s a start. That’s more than we had before this mess.

Hi Prof. Roubini,Mr. Market might agree that the question is: “How Low Can the Stock Markets Go? Much Lower” but the even better question is:How much more valuable can the valuable stocks get? Much more! What can we say? They’re now hiding in plain sight!Enjoy the ride!P1AQL

I just saved my Job!There had been no indication of layoffs where I workedother than the generally bad economy, but a few weeks ago I spoke to my manager and volunteered to work a half day on Saturdays and a small percent cut in pay.Well, unkown to me, they had already had a fairly big list of people they were expecting to cut which included me and after being the only one at all to step up and volunteer, basically it saved my butt!

Oswald Spengler once wrote that there was nothing poor about a small cottage with a well kept garden. While Aristotle deemed a certain amount of wealth is essential to happiness, I suspect that he would agree with Spengler as to how much property was really necessary. Me, I’m looking forward to building my small cottage on my northern property, and also to putting in my small, well kept garden.

some fast flicks on steel ~ interesting when combined with your school chum’s hubby’s remark that “steel leads out of a recession.” On that remark, looks as if we’re still headed downward…WSA: January 2009 Crude Steel Production[Steelonthenet.com] Brussels, Belgium; 20 Feb 2009 – World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 86 million metric tons (mmt) in January. This is 24% lower than the same month last year. All major-steel producing countries showed a two-digit decrease in crude.http://www.metricmetal.com/steel_industry_news.htmU.S. Steel earnings up, outlook downJanuary 28, 2009 –On the heels of record profits in 2008, U.S. Steel Corp. is bracing for a rockier earnings climate this year.On Tuesday, the company reported record profits of $2.13 billion for 2008 despite its fourth quarter earnings dropping $611 million below the previous quarter.The lower fourth quarter earnings are the start of a downward trend that likely will be repeated in the current period, company officials said…”We expect an operating loss in the first quarter (of 2009) as results continue to reflect the extremely difficult global economic environment,” Surma said. “We do not know when conditions may improve, but we are well positioned to fully participate in a market recovery when it occurs…The company said it is making aggressive efforts to maximize liquidity and reduce costs and will take additional actions as market conditions warrant.After idling the hot end of its Hamilton, Ontario, Works in November, the company consolidated its steelmaking operations because of market conditions. It also idled Keetac, an iron ore mining and pelletizing facility in Minnesota, Great Lakes Works near Detroit and Granite City Works near St. Louis. The actions affected about 3,500 union and nonunion workers…http://www.nwitimes.com/articles/2009/01/28/news/top_news/doc74031347427d0fdb8625754c000d7967.txt

Wow!!!

Go to the link below, and scroll a long way down the page. You’ll find a list of the strongest and weakest banks in the USA. Tomorrow I’ll try to post a link to the bank ratings evaluator, so you can evaluate your own bank online (with updated info).http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/reports/Event/1010QA/QA-followup.html#_Toc211675100PeteCA

I somehow disagree with Prof. roubini’s inflation forecast. We’ll see asset deflation for the next two years (thats expected); the 2009 last quarter CPI nos. will be rather surprising. Going forward thereafter, we’ll see CPI nos. constantly rising for the next 4-5 years.

look at these dead beats….Issuer Name Probability of Default Rating Corporate Family Rating Outlook Total Rated Debt Outstanding (in billions) Industry SectorLoading…Allison Transmission, Inc. B3 B3 Negative $4.60 Automotive: PartsAMR Corp. Caa1 Caa1 Negative $1.62 Transportation Services: AirlineBuilding Materials Corporation of America Caa1 B3 Negative $1.55 Manufacturing: Finished ProductsChrysler LLC Ca Ca Negative $9.00 Automotive: PassengerCitadel Broadcasting Corp. Caa3 Caa2 Negative $2.29 Media: Broadcast Tv & Radio StationsClaire’s Stores, Inc. Caa3 Caa3 Negative $2.59 Retail: Department StoresDana Holding Corp. Caa1 Caa1 Rating under reveiw $2.08 Automotive: PartsDole Food Company, Inc. Caa1 B3 Negative $1.51 Natural Products Processor: AgricultureEastman Kodak Co. B3 B3 Negative $2.10 Technology: HardwareFord Motor Co. Caa3 Caa3 Negative $31.55 Automotive: PassengerFreescale Semiconductor, Inc. Ca Caa1 Negative $10.20 Technology: SemiconductorGeneral Motors Corp. Ca Ca Negative $38.56 Automotive: PassengerGeorgia Gulf Corp. Caa2 Caa2 Negative $1.98 Chemicals: Commodity ChemicalHawker Beechcraft Acquisition Co. B3 B3 Negative $2.85 Aircraft & Aerospace: EquipmentIdearc, Inc. Caa3 Caa2 Negative $9.29 Media Publishing: BooksLear Corp. Caa2 Caa2 Rating under reveiw $2.30 Automotive: PartsLevel 3 Communications, Inc. Caa1 Caa1 Rating under reveiw $1.87 Telecommunications: WirelineMichaels Stores, Inc. B3 B3 Negative $3.93 Retail: SpecialtyOSI Restaurant Partners, Inc. Ca Caa1 Rating under reveiw $2.11 Restaurants: Family DiningR.H. Donnelley Corp. Caa2 Caa1 Negative $3.48 Media: Printing – HoldcoReader’s Digest Association, Inc. Caa3 Caa3 Negative $2.21 Media Publishing: Newspapers & MagazinesRealogy Corp. Caa3 Caa3 Negative $7.56 Services: ConsumerRite Aid Corp. Caa2 Caa2 Negative $6.80 Retail: Drug StoresSource Interlink Companies Inc. Caa1 Caa1 Negative $1.63 Media Publishing: Newspapers & MagazinesSwift Transportation Co., Inc. Caa1 Caa1 Negative $2.98 Transportation Services: TruckingTenneco Inc. B3 B3 Negative $1.83 Automotive: PartsUnivision Communications, Inc. B3 B3 Negative $10.09 Media: Diversified Media – FcUS Airways Group, Inc. Caa1 Caa1 Negative $1.60 Transportation Services: AirlineVisteon Corp. Caa1 Caa2 Negative $3.20 Automotive: PartsWestern Refining, Inc. B3 B3 Negative $1.40 Energy: Oil – Refining & Marketing

Thanks for the condescension.I wasn’t being sarcastic, I was being serious.I am not any kind of econ major, history major, or any other kind of major, and I know enough about the markets to fit in an eighth of a thimble. But I appreciate you taking the time to educate me.

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How brilliant, dear one. How obvious…now! Of course one must do an “L” before one can make a “U” turn. But, in a SOUP this messy, it IS hard to know if one has backed into the future or forwarded into the past, or if one is simply bubbling and imploding in a Greenspan S&P500 Dream Machine. I do sense we floated by Bernanke lingering somewhere back in the 30s, trying to fast forward to bypass 2009 on a $9 trillion bicycle. Somewhere in a fog…Ah, well. Perhaps the professor can slow a bit if it would make your ride more comfortable. But you must trust your pilot. And, not to be a Cassandra, but we HAVE known for more than a year that we’re “coming in on a wing and a prayer.” And no longer sure about the “wing.”And something to ponder on our way down. There IS a sucker born every minute, and they DO so love bear rallies!

Everyone loves a team player. Good advice for all. Congratulations, and best to your company! I’m sorry for all your fellow workers and hope things are better soon. But tonight, we celebrate!!

What in the world could have happened to Dole? Reader’s Digest I can understand. Very, very sad — all collateral damage to be laid at the feet of the Wall Street Investment Bankers, and Summers, Rubin, Graham and B.Clinton, who made it all possible.

Its official… Its L-shaped. China adopting “beggar thy neighbour” policieshttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ccc48c1e-0d13-11de-a555-0000779fd2ac.html

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder[er] is less to fear.”- – Marcus Tullius Cicero.http://nswbc.org/Op%20Ed/Part2-FNL-Nov29-06.htm

Dear HALIt’s so obvious, isn’t it? Unfortunately the PTB have a vested interest in maintaining the reliance on petroleum based existence. Until they are prepared to dump the Petroleum lobby, you will not see any development on this front.The alternative energy technologies have been available for mass production for years.

The combination of agricultural shortages (ie.california water rationing, boom and bust in food commodities effect on farmers) and monetary expansion is predictable.Its going to be a hell of a summer.

You folks are hooked on HOPIUM.The whole question in life is Who Eats Whom!

Occasionally I wander back and read past views of the professor. Read within the context of a sea of contemporary analysis they only grow in stature. I would be drifting with the tide without this blog.I have learned to take all market timing advice (including the good professor’s) with a pinch of salt. Observing the successful ones I think Taleb would posit “they were lucky”.The bearishness of Roubini’s present view I caution should not be interpreted as timing advice. On Nov 19 the readers of RGE read ‘With major US equity indices free falling over 6% today Wednesday, ending below their October lows and now being back to 2003 levels the latest bear market sucker’s rally is now officially over.”If you were active in the market you might have decided as I did to ‘play the market’ only to see the S&P rally over 17% in the following 6 weeks.…”trust in God but to tie up your donkey first?”

http://www.businessinsider.com/meredith-whitney-over-half-of-consumer-credit-card-lines-will-be-yanked-2009-3No jobs, no credit, no money… what will they do? start shutting off electric, water and phone on millions shwen they dont pay?Wait the new credit card reform act goes into effect in july 2010. that will help – lol….. more planning by the PTP to screw us all…People need to stand up and be counted…. or by Mid 2010 this will be a police state in this country….

Why the USA will be – SHOULD BE – the First Global Economy to experience a total collapse, any day now during the next few months:1. Americans ain’t dumb – well, not all of them.2. I will bet against the “slicks” of Wall Street and with the ‘Old American Constitutionalists’ – like Ron Paul3. Nobody could be possibly so stupid (except the slicks) to believe that there will soon NOT be a global economic collapse; that Pope Ben and Tiny Tim even have the faintest idea as to what is going on; that the World will decouple from the USA and live happily ever-after(leaving the USA at the bottom of the dog-pile).4. Enter the ‘old American establishment’:Decision A. Preempt the global economic collapseDecision B. Let all the other World economies fold on top of the USA,Decision C. Orchestrate the whole global economic collapse debacle (quite easy as this is where it is at) but remove the USA from the bottom of the pile,Decision D. Utilize ‘old American establishment’ resources to override all the “slick” programs to availe the USA to not only preside over the recovery but to effectively re-orchestrate its effective new structure.5. The ‘Old American establishment’ will reassert itself to remove those “nasty little elements” within the body ‘elite’ (and hopefully put them in jobs cleaning toilets: read neocons and the like ilk) and perhaps even elevate Ron Paul to where he should be.6. By preempting the global economic collapse, the USA can rebuild a new global structure as only this Nation has the resources to do so -as long as they drop those that are currently leading the collapse, er, FedRes and Treasury, et al.Question: Why not?The full qualitative intensity of ecstasy of the taste moment which only lasts for a millisecond – one needs only to know when to bite.Technology is the key to the future but power needs to be entrenched in fundamental values which the “slicks” do not possess or are even aware of.Ho hum

NEW THREAD.

Apologies for the condescension. I took the “Huh?” as sarcasm, of course. If you stick w/ the analyses on this site you’ll be trading your thimble for a bucket in no time, at which point you’ll be as ignorant as the rest of us!

Ooh! Ooh! I have been served! What an enchanting reply! Indeed, it is a messy old soup. Was that 1973 that just floated by? And I hesitate to criticize a man who has been really and truly right about THE fundamental thing, but I feel like the small boy I once was banging over a dirt road in a hurricane who knows where the road likely ends and therefore still whines “Are we there yet?” and who also suspects Dad is punishing this lack of patience by hitting the ruts a little harder than necessary. Ah well.And I DO so love those sucker rallies and playing tricky with puts and calls, but in the long run it just makes one feel so, so, so …PARASITIC.

Funny, last I noticed there is nowhere to go where there are jobs. Right now the only one in my household with a job is my daughter. We could sell the house, but why do that if we have to go rent somewhere and pay the same money to live and STILL NOT HAVE A JOB. Until you are in this situation, you have no business telling the rest of us what we should or should not be doing.

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Remember some guy published a few years ago a book titled “The end of history”? Seems he got it wrong. History’s back, at least it can’t be less boring than tv series or cnbc

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