yes numero uno!

From Miss America, my latest calls and a focus on Fractional Reserves.http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/254883/merry_x-mess__happy_2000000000009#readcommentsHappy Holidays,MA

U.S. Recession to Persist in Months AheadReutersDecember 26, 2008(Reuters) – NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) – A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate inched up in the latest week, but still indicate the U.S. recession is here to stay, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ending Dec. 19 to 106.6 from 106.2 in the previous week.The index’s annualized growth rate edged up to negative 29.2 percent from minus 30.1 percent, initially reported at minus 30 percent.”With WLI growth barely above its all-time low seen two weeks ago, the U.S. recession will persist in the months ahead,” said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.The weekly index rose due to lower interest rates and higher stock prices and the gain was partly offset by higher joblessness, according to ECRI data.ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.- The Economist, Jan. ’05Not a Client?Go Pro Today!Read this jewel of a book and start your own personal cycle upturn.Jim GrantMore Information >GLOSSARY TERMS OF SERVICE PRIVACY POLICY CONTACThttp://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1259/

Where “REAL” banking takes place…http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB123007970447031843-lMyQjAxMDI4MzIwNjAyNzY5Wj.html

You are TOTALLY correct!!! Let’s get the campaign going. The banks are just hoarding the dollars and paying down their own debt to cover their own mistakes and greedy investments rather than lending to the people, and Congress is letting it happen.

Pentagon To Build Multi-Robot Pursuit Systemhttp://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2008/10/pentagon_to_build_multirobot_pursuit_system.html

The Pentagon has issued a request to its contractors to develop a new Multi-Robot Pursuit System that is able to “search for and detect a non-cooperative human.” This basically means robots have been built in order to hunt down humans just like a pack of dogs – good thing to programme such a complicated piece of software won’t take just a few months, but probably many years down the road. These robots are also tipped to be equipped with human detection and tracking devices in order to aid their task. Other than the fact that this might lead to the MGS4 “Gekko” one day, I guess it is time we started to be good law-abiding citizens lest Uncle Sam unleashes such a technological beast on us in a sign of his wrath.

Agree! I have a friend who was in the middle of a short sale waiting for the lst lender to accept the offer while the 2nd (Citimortgage-part of Citigroup who has been bailed out by Mr. Paulson) decided they were not willing to wait any longer and sent the paperwork over to their attorney to start foreclosure. Citimortgage’s response “it’s out of our hands now”! Unless, these major banks can be stopped from playing “supreme dictators” this economic crisis will just get worse!

did you just make a metal gear solid reference??? Me thinks that is lost on this community?!?!

The United Auto Workers may be out of the hole now that President Bush has approved a $17 billion bailout of the U.S. auto industry, but the union isn’t out of the bunker just yet.Even as the industry struggles with massive losses, the UAW brass continue to own and operate a $33 million lakeside retreat in Michigan, complete with a $6.4 million designer golf course. And it’s costing them millions each year.

More gold gold backwardation!The price just jumped $20 to $870. The dollar index is unchanged and oil slipped down to $36/barrel.Gold has now risen $100/oz since the beginning of December! I believe this the longest backwarddation period in recorded history and there have only been a handful.I’m guessing these tremors foreshadowing a currency earth quake…

we are being deceived.i have lived through several recessions and there wasn’t this degree of doom and gloom associated with any of them. my dad, mom and grandparents went through the great depression and none of them ever mentioned it; it came, it went and life continued.what is so different about this downturn that has everyone in such a panic?henry paulson’s initial request for 700 billion dollars seems more like a ransom demand: sudden and done without any consultation with the president or relevant members of congress. it’s as if america, a country with nuclear weapons and the means and will to use them, was suddenly threatened with destruction unless the money is handed over.and the animosity shown towards the auto industry is even more baffling. the theory that it is aimed at destroying the autoworkers union makes no sense in a country where less than 15 percent of the work force is unionized. if consumer confidence is essential to our economy why would several million people be threatened with the immediate loss of their jobs?something else is going on here. and it is not what we are being told

GuestWhat do you think it is?

Absolutely one hundred percent right, Miss America. I too have been hollering about reducing principal. Doesn’t appear that’s going to happen, though, because TPTB simply must reflate the housing bubble. It is utter insanity.And every single news outlet I’ve watched in the past week has carried story after story about consumer spending. I am so sick of it. When there is a serious environmental disaster in beautiful Tennessee. What size was that spill there? Oh, yeah. Forty times larger than the Exxon Valdez spill.Where is the outrage?

The root cause is US workers have not been able to create real wealth to support a standard of living they are used to. No amount of financial ‘engineering’, no amount of money/credit creation, no amount of trade policy adjustment, no amount of budgetary tricks can change that. The facts of the past 15 years overwhelmingly proved this thesis. All these tricks have only delayed the reckoning, and now have resulted in financial, economic and soon-to-be social collapse.The only way out is to build things of real value, earn the money, save the money, invest the savings in human capital, which will sustain the wealth curve.Given the sorry state the US now finds itself in – low education level, reduced creativity, zombie and TV-washed young generation, outdated infrastructure, pervasive profound corruption, etc. fixing this country will take a generation.Don’t fool yourself my friend. It will take A GENERATION. Provided the new generation has what it takes. Don’t invest in the stock market and all those stupid things. Invest in the 10-15 year old and nurture them like mad so that when they are 25 lots of new Bill Gates and real scientists will appear.

You can turn this question around and ask how will India and China survive when their people don’t have the money to make up for the loss of American consumer damand.

There is that too, Brett. Perhaps all of us “consumers” should re-think just exactly what we’re spending our money on, discretionary and otherwise. I daresay the term “necessity” means something different in India and China than it does in America.

Lovely thought, Tom Z, to invest in the kids. And you are right, it will take a generation to shovel our way through this pile of sheep dip.

they want us to believe that the system is broke, so that a new world economic system will not only be possible but desired.

paul i don’t know. and those who do aren’t saying. but i do know that i’ve lived long enough to know what we’re being told isn’t true.

“How to Win Friends and Influence People – the CIA way.”:Little Blue Pills Among the Ways CIA Wins Friends in AfghanistanBy Joby WarrickWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, December 26, 2008; A01The Afghan chieftain looked older than his 60-odd years, and his bearded face bore the creases of a man burdened with duties as tribal patriarch and husband to four younger women. His visitor, a CIA officer, saw an opportunity, and reached into his bag for a small gift.Four blue pills. Viagra.”Take one of these. You’ll love it,” the officer said. Compliments of Uncle Sam.The enticement worked. The officer, who described the encounter, returned four days later to an enthusiastic reception. The grinning chief offered up a bonanza of information about Taliban movements and supply routes — followed by a request for more pills.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/25/AR2008122500931_pf.html

Analysis Last Updated: Dec 19th, 2008 – 02:00:58http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4153.shtml#top——————————————————————————–London Banker: “The market has failed, and officialdom is perpetuating that failure”By Mike WhitneyOnline Journal Contributing Writer.Dec 19, 2008, 00:28. …….. excerpt ……………….Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and presidential adviser Lawrence Summers believe they can fire off a massive stimulus salvo and put the economy back on track, but it will take more than that. The financial system needs fundamental structural reform and both men rose to power because they proved themselves loyal defenders of the status quo. Geithner and Summers may nibble at the edges and make grandiloquent proclamations about rebuilding the system, but when it’s time to pull the trigger, they will subvert every attempt to regulate or oversee the system which they feel is the sole province of the establishment elites who own the big financial institutions. There’s bound to be plenty of blasting trumpets and celebratory confetti to greet Obama’s economic whiz kids. Just don’t expect change. Barring a complete economic meltdown, the rot at the heart of the system will continue to fester and grow under Obama just as it did under Bush and Clinton.How can one maintain a free market system when financial institutions are not allowed to fail?And how can such a system function properly without stop signs, guard rails, speed limits or rules that determine what side of the road one can drive?And how can confidence be strengthened when no one pays for predatory lending, ratings manipulation, malfeasance, fraud, or any other whitecollar crime? So far, not one indictment has been served in the biggest financial swindle of all time. That’s not how a “rules-based” system is supposed to operate.Meanwhile, the economy continues to deteriorate faster than anyone expected……….

t,.military intelligence leading the way to a battered tomorrow. priorities?how about the vets get some real services for their medical, educational and living assistance needs? low interest VA small business loans? something that doesn’t result in maiming, killing and hatred. cutting edge stuff. peaceful. we probably already have the software and the hardware..we don’t have the wisdom or the heart to apply it and you only get that through irretrievable loss of something that is so dear that you have no choice but to die to your world view. for a moment then you are free to recreate the world with perspective, wisdom and vision. i should think we’ve lost enough if anyone is paying attention, even with the “embedded” ignorance . CM devolving. but then again, iv’e spent most of my life being wrong on this..are they going to name this thing the “peacekeeper”, or “justice vision”, or the “interrogator-eliminator”? hmmm. the bias will be achieved in the design, structure-function trap.??.did you ever see “lars and the real girl”? now that’s what i’m talkin’ about. low tech but effective.

Intelligent use of internet is highly productive. It generates highly useful information increasing the efficiency of the real economy. Dumb use may be counterproductive, although it may keep dumb people away from doing more harmful things. So, I’m even not sure that the overall result of dumb use of the internet gives a negative end result.

I live in Australia and will give you some more facts over and above the everbank summary- Australia has four major banks all AA rated (four of 15 left in the world). All have been given a government guarantee AAA guarantee during the financial crises.- Australia is a commodity based economy (both hard and soft), which means as long as the world needs commodities, there is demand for the Australian currency (supporting its value)- Australia is one of the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, coal, and wheat. Significant producer of Gold, Nickel, Copper, Uranium, and many other commod’s.- We run a current account deficit, which means we consume more than we export (like americans), but this is changing in the current environment.- WELL REGULATED – australians believe that regulation is part of who we are as a nation. Giving people a fair go is part of the australian ethos and while big business gets its day, their is proper regulation, particularly in the finance areaI could go on and on, but if you want to know more post an email and I’ll follow up.

What is your work, Guest?Are you a chinese?

b,What is the main function of the fractional banking system?Imagine… 2000 years ago.Imagine… Cattle is the money.Some smart guy (banker) creates cattle certificates.Then king X allow the banker to issue more certificates than available cattle.The banker promises to control the quantitity of certificates (FOMC)to maintain a “moderate price inflation” based on an index the establishment creates.The banker pays some “economists” to support the systems with abstract complicated theories.Who benefits from the scheme?Answer: The banker, The king (banker “helps” king to pay his debt)This is your system.Legal counterfeited money + CPI(modified frome the original definition)+ “control” of CPI by FOMC operations.People NEED to understand this system. I intend to create a game, like monopoly.It will be named Fractional Bank. I will be the Central Banker. You play, you lose. I win. Always.

Welcome to the club, dude.

BrainTrust: What Is Power, and How Can We Get It?While the BrainTrust debates the core problems with our economy and the strategy we’ll use to accomplish our mission, it’s important to remember that effecting change requires power.Let’s recall our mission statement:

“We are going to build and use grass-roots power to influence the evolution of the global economy.”

If we are to build power, we must develop an accurate shared understanding of what power is and how it is acquired.Definition of PowerPower is the ability to influence other people’s behavior.Mechanisms for Application of PowerThe conduits by which power is exerted include:Relationship. If you have a relationship with someone, even if it’s a bad relationship, you have influence over that person.Information. You’ve heard the expression “knowledge is power”. If you know something that is of vital interest to someone, you have potential power over that person. If you have a reputation for having good information, you exert even more influence over people’s behaviorForce. The threat of harming someone exerts influence over that person’s behavior.Authority. The state’s power over the citizen is based on the agreed-upon social contract, and from the state’s right to use force to impose society’s will upon the individualControl over scarce resources. If you have something others really need, you can influence their behaviorAs the BrainTrust contemplates the formation and use of “grass-roots power”, it will help us if we understand what forms power can take. What forms of power are we able to employ? We will not likely be granted any Authority, and hopefully we won’t be resorting to Force.It seems more reasonable that we will be able to amass and deploy power using the Information and Relationship mechanisms. We may also elect to use our organization to build and control some key resources.Once we complete the Goals segment of our analysis over the next week or two, we will move directly into the Strategy discussion. Our strategy, in broadest terms, will be to amass and then apply power. The question is “what form of power will we amass, and how, and then what pressure-points will we apply it upon?” I invite you to consider this essay on power closely as you participate in the BrainTrust debates over the next few weeks.

It is an ambitious endeavor to develop a grass roots power strategy. I commend you! I have beenlooking at the development of our culture since the 1970s and it is apparent that the mass media plays a truly hypnotic role in preventing the normal american from engaging in true analysis and thought.The corporate media is truly omnipotent. This is akin to “1984″ but very subliminal. The powerful have employed very sophisticated techniques to make us salivate at will. Mobilization of the electorate to vote in their financial interest can be intercepted with bogus cultural issues,nationalism,and other time tested devices of attention diversion. You are right to apply rigorous analysis prior to entering such an endeavor. These are larger and more menacing windmills than Quixote faced

This is an interesting interview with a dude who writes a newsletter who uses charts and astronomy/astrology to predict the markets – His return in 2008 was +42%. I remember seeing him interviewed a few years back when the markets were tanking, the interview was conducted almost as a joke. It seems he is more mainstream now as both MarketWatch and CNBC have done stories on him. CNBC Interview with Arch Crawford Market Watch story 2008′s star newsletter profits from the starsCommentary: Arch Crawford uses astrology to head Top Ten list

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Diamonds among the ashes — or scum that’s floated to the top? A distressing number of bad-tempered readers want to believe the latter. But although 2008′s top performers are a new lot, at least some of them look surprisingly solid.Of course, it was a disastrous year. The dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 was down 38.3% over the year to date ending in November.But the winner, Arch Crawford’s Crawford Perspectives, gained 42.4%, a performance that would have gotten into the top 10 most any year. Crawford is a veteran technically-oriented timer who is famous for openly discussing astrology…

Oller:The ironic thing about it is that the “what’s next” economy will not favor the rich and powerful any more than it does the weak. If the middle-class founders, there is no basis for the power of the “powerful”.The powerful will soon realize that a strong middle class is absolutely crucial to their survival.You will see a tactics-shift, but it will originate from the bottom, not the top.It needs to be said that not all rich and powerful are bad; some actually earned what they have, and some read history, and some are hopeful about what humanity can become.One adjunct dimension of amassing power is the team-selection process. I hope some readers will give this aspect its proper due. Recruitment and relationship-building are crucial, and some powerful people are worth including.Think on it. What is our recruitment criteria?

They also have to figure out where to apply resources into the economy that will have sustainable impact. You can only do massive stimulus a few times before running out of borrowing power. If the first few tries under Obama mis-fire as badly as the last few tries under Bush, stimulus will fail.Finance types don’t know how to create wealth. That observation includes Mr. Summers and Mr. Geithner and Mr. Rubin. Their job is (theoretically) to allocate resources. If only they would re-learn their craft.Engineers, inventors, scientists and entrepreneurs are the ones that create wealth. The vast workforce implements, but the thinkers find the new ways to create wealth.Finance is irrelevant if no wealth is being created. I did say “irrelevant”. Where do you allocate resources if there are no investment-worthy projects?Well, if you’re unwise, you blow bubbles and defraud your trusting, credulous citizenry, using housing, oil, and commodities as the pump-and-dump mechanism.If one was truly wise, those resources would have been allocated to basic research and then to commercialization.To my dear friends in the Finance industry: How does one create wealth?

Another thought: Since the govt has deemed certain corps “too big to fail”, then in exchange for the bailout using taxpayer’s money, give every taxpayer shares in the company so that we all benefit equally when the company restores itself to profitability. This will make them think”long and hard” about future irresponsible actions! I don’t know any American (except for the top .01%)who would be against this!

Keep in mind that Everbank actually banks your money in a US bank, and then uses futures transactions in the currency markets to produce the trades you want. If you have confidence in this kind of financial transaction, plus the stability of the bank itself, then the choice of currency transaction is up to you.PeteCA

f, you copyright it produce it and i will buy it, play it and force it on my offspring.

The land where housing wasa place to raise a familyTo welcome othersand live happilyIt used to store our wealthand dreams and memoryIt now stores debtfrom taken out equity

Anger?We will need to call Dr. Buddy Rydell

The Economic Meltdown: Dismantling, Yes; Doom, NoSeeking Alpha December 26, 2008

Yes, Christmas and all that turkey derailed our 2008 review / 2009 preview series, so yesterday’s scheduled piece on Venture Capital will be published later than sooner. But speaking of venture capitalists, this morning I was reading Fred Wilson’s piece called Bits of Destruction, in which he argues that while the causes of the economic meltdown “have more to do with risky lending and owning securities that are toxic than anything else” he argues that the consequence will be the death of many doomed industries whose days are numbered due to the Information Revolution.It is a fascinating argument, but an incorrect, or rather, incomplete one. The truth is, Read more

h,.correct. imo, profound insight that should stop us in our tracks……In fact, the 21st century was to be a century that saw America start to share power with Russia, China and India. But during George W. Bush’s reign, the US imploded due to a foreign policy which can be described at best as greedy and arrogant and at worst criminal.Regardless of your thoughts on the war, the simple result of combineda) increased spending on the war andb) tax cuts for the wealthyresulted in loose money, easy credit which then in turn led to the housing bubble.To this day, mainstream media starts the story on Chapter 2: the Housing bubble, easily forgetting that Chapter 1 of this history is in fact this illegal and immoral war that is costing Iraqi civilian and US soldiers’ lives for no reason. We can say all that we want about greed on Wall Street and whatnot, but the real cause goes back to Washington DC for setting such a poor example for everyone else to follow….

Firstto post that there is aNEW THREAD

This statement perfectly implies how multi-corporations exploited labor in China thereby ultimately undermining American demand. Essentially the global playing field is being leveled but at huge costs to the U.S. and western economies. Big business simply doesn’t care that 3 or 4 generations of americans will greatly suffer the leaders/ elitists just look at it as sacrifices having to be made. What’s sick is the people making these changes and decisions, the economists, the business leaders and the politicians none of them are as affected by their tinkering- they talk of sacrifice but that doesn’t include them.

Thank you all…one of the things I love about this site is the patience, generousity and kindness shown to “Guest” and “Anon”.

Pretty much same situation in Canada, except no deficit for the past 11 years – there will be a deficit this year though.

“Are you right or are you lucky”. With all due respect to Roubini, you’d have to be a moron not to have foreseen this financial crisis. I am no Nouriel Robini so I cannot articulate as well as he, the scope or the breadth of this crisis. But I have watched with increasing alarm ever since George Bush got elected the reckless policies and blind indifference of this Administration. From the “deficits don’t matter” proclamation of Dick Cheney, to the trillion dollar war in Iraq for which the bill was foisted onto future Presidents and future generation to the multiple warnings regarding the insane mortgage practices that the banks were engaging in, in the NYTimes, Nightline, and selected other sources. It couldn’t have been clearer that trouble was coming and it was going to be HUGE. What makes me mad as hell is that all those supposedly “smart” Harvard MBAs and those overpaid CEO’s of America’s financial industry claimed not to have seen it coming. That’s just bullshit! Its the same type of lying garbage that the Bush Administration engaged in about “Iraq being responsible for 9/11 and weapons of mass destruction”. History will reflect upon a deceitful, greedy, arrogant and indifferent political and corporate elite that lied consistently and shamelessly to the people for their own shortsighted political and monetary gain.The Main Stream Media also share in the responsibility. They should have been banging the drum DOING THEIR JOBS and challenging the status quo. This mess did not need a Nouriel Roubini to predict it. A blind, deaf and dumb imbecile could have predicted it.Will it get worse? You’re damn right it will. If you watched 60 minutes a few weeks ago it clearly explained that another 2 trillion dollars of ARMs (ajustable reset mortgages) are just beginning to come due. And it is estimated that 75% of these mortgages will default. Think this recession (depression is just about over). Its only just begun! If the first round of sub-prime mortgages didn’t bankrupt the banks the second round of ARMS and then the commercial mortgages and credit card debt will. Hang onto your balls and hope for the best.

Even though I am a big Obama supporter I have to agree with you. Why are the cast of villains who are largely responsible for this mess being appointed to clean up this mess? Talk about the fox being put in charge of the hen house.If there is one thing we should have learned from this mess its that public partisanship is ruinous to our collective good. We the public have got to keep an eye on what is going on DEMAND that our political and corporate elites are held accountable.

I think the cost of education is a red herring. The quality of education depends on the importance put upon it in the home and the environment provided for ideas to flourish. My grandmother was a school teacher in a one room school house in Saskatchewan. The majority of her students went on to higher education, several of her students attaining positions such as lawyers, physicians & one who ended up working for NASA on the space programme. All of this without the aid of computers, individualized learning programmes & ritalin. Public libraries were valued, free inquiry was valued and no one was stuck in front of a television all night. The quality of education has been dumbed down to a shameful level; this in the face of all of the so called technological advances. Throw out your television and read to your kids.

Gee, Mission Accomplished !

I think prices in China and India are far less than in the US, UK allowing them to be middle class with one-third or incomes.