first

Good Professor! it is nice to see U still have big cojones!

Madoff Charged in Fraud of More Than $20 BillionBy David Glovin and Bradley KeounDec. 11 (Bloomberg) — Bernard Madoff, president of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, a market maker for hedge funds and banks, was charged with securities fraud by federal prosecutors in New York in a scheme that totaled more than $20 billion, according to a person familiar with the case20 BBBBillion ! what ?here is a prediction. sales of new popular magazine “Poverty” surpass those of “Fortune” in 2009 ha ha ha ho! ho! ho!another…trillion becomes the new billion – just as billion long ago surpassed million

Wow! Capone, you Chicago guy nailed a good one!

Madoff Charged in Fraud of More Than $20 Billion

By David Glovin and Bradley KeounDec. 11 (Bloomberg) — Bernard Madoff, president of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, a market maker for hedge funds and banks, was charged with securities fraud by federal prosecutors in New York in a scheme that totaled more than $20 billion, according to a person familiar with the case.Madoff was arrested today by the FBI and is scheduled to appear in court this afternoon in Manhattan. Madoff, 70, was charged with a single count of securities fraud.“Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry,” said defense lawyer Dan Horwitz as he waited for Madoff’s case to be called. “We will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events. He’s a person of integrity.”Madoff’s New York-based firm was the 23rd largest market maker on Nasdaq in October, handling a daily average of about 50 million shares a day, exchange data show. The firm specialized in handling orders from online brokers in some of the largest U.S. companies, including General Electric Co. and Citigroup Inc.Madoff started his firm in 1960 with $5,000 of savings and took advantage of securities-law changes in the 1970s designed to spur competition in U.S. stock markets, according to a profile posted on the Web site Finance Tech.He was chief of the Securities Industry Association’s trading committee in the 1990s and early this decade, where he represented brokerage firms in discussions with regulators about new stock-market rules as electronic-trading systems and networks gained prominence.75 PercentMadoff, who owned more than 75 percent of his firm, and his brother Peter are the only two individuals listed on regulatory records as “direct owners and executive officers.”Peter Madoff was a board member of the St. Louis brokerage firm A.G. Edwards Inc. from 2001 through last year, when it was sold to Wachovia Corp.The Madoff firm had about $17.1 billion in assets under management as of Nov. 17, according to NASD records. At least 50 percent of its clients were hedge funds, and others included banks and wealthy individuals, according to the records.The case is U.S. v. Madoff, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (Manhattan)To contact the reporter on this story: David Glovin in U.S. District Court in New York at dglovin@bloomberg.net and; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net.Last Updated: December 11, 2008 17:32 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8EVy7KVpBaA&refer=home

yes you did sorry in my rush to post (below) I missed yours

take out the first “before”

does anyone have any thoughts on us dollar DOWN and equities down today? the dollar rally for the most part coincided with the sell-off in the overall market since July very broad and roughly speaking (perhaps i am looking in too much to a one day blip on the charts…)in regards to the TIPs recommendation – TIPS are perhaps the worst place on planet earth to fight inflation. are they not priced based on what the government calls inflation ? ? ?

WHERE’S THE PRICE BOTTOM IN HOME PRICES?In my book, the bottom will be much like the Great Depression…..when it fully collapses [we have a long way to go yet] it will flatten for a decade or two.You can’t miss it.The smartest RE shoppers during the GD didn’t buy until they had to. If the banks doors were closed, the one with the most in his/her cash can bought apartment complexes, farms, companies, etc….

Madoff Charged in $50 Billion Fraud at Investment Advisory FirmEmail | Print | A A ABy David Glovin and Bradley KeounDec. 11 (Bloomberg) — Bernard Madoff, president of market- maker Bernard Madoff Investment Securities and a former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, was charged by U.S. prosecutors in a $50 billion securities fraud at his investment advisory business.Madoff, 70, was arrested today at 8:30 a.m. by the FBI and appeared this afternoon before U.S. Magistrate Judge Douglas Eaton in Manhattan federal court. Charged with a single count of securities fraud, he is to be released tonight on $10 million bond guaranteed by his wife and two others, Eaton said. Madoff’s wife was present in the courtroom.“He’s one of the pioneers of modern Wall Street,” said James Angel, an associate business professor at Georgetown University in Washington. Madoff’s firm was among the first to automate market-making, in which a dealer continually buys and sells stock. The company was among the largest to offer “payment for order flow,” or paying to handle customer orders. “The exchanges didn’t like the practice and questioned whether customers got the best price,” Angel said.Madoff’s New York-based firm serves hedge funds, banks and wealthy individuals. It was the 23rd largest market maker on Nasdaq in October, handling a daily average of about 50 million shares a day, exchange data show. The firm specialized in handling orders from online brokers in some of the largest U.S. companies, including General Electric Co. and Citigroup Inc.Started His FirmMadoff started his firm in 1960 with $5,000 of savings and took advantage of securities-law changes in the 1970s designed to spur competition in U.S. stock markets, according to a profile posted on the Web site Finance Tech.He was chief of the Securities Industry Association’s trading committee in the 1990s and early this decade, where he represented brokerage firms in discussions with regulators about new stock-market rules as electronic-trading systems and networks gained prominence.“Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry,” said defense lawyer Dan Horwitz. “We will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events. He’s a person of integrity.”Madoff, who owned more than 75 percent of his firm, and his brother Peter are the only two individuals listed on regulatory records as “direct owners and executive officers.”Peter Madoff was a board member of the St. Louis brokerage firm A.G. Edwards Inc. from 2001 through last year, when it was sold to Wachovia Corp.$17.1 BillionThe Madoff firm had about $17.1 billion in assets under management as of Nov. 17, according to NASD records. At least 50 percent of its clients were hedge funds, and others included banks and wealthy individuals, according to the records.Madoff’s Web site advertises the “high ethical standards” of the firm.“In an era of faceless organizations owned by other equally faceless organizations, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC harks back to an earlier era in the financial world: The owner’s name is on the door,” according to the Web site. “Clients know that Bernard Madoff has a personal interest in maintaining the unblemished record of value, fair-dealing, and high ethical standards that has always been the firm’s hallmark.”The case is U.S. v. Madoff, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (Manhattan)To contact the reporter on this story: David Glovin in U.S. District Court in New York at dglovin@bloomberg.net and; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net.Last Updated: December 11, 2008 18:09 EST

Soon enough the figure will be $700 Billion. There you have it, as promised by Paulson, the taxpayer will not bear the cost of the bailouts. Just add a credit to the balance sheet of Madoff and a debit to that of the Treasury by the same amount, and all balances.

Madoff Told Employees Business Was ‘One Big Lie,’ SEC SaysEmail | Print | A A ABy David ScheerDec. 11 (Bloomberg) — Bernard Madoff, president of Bernard Madoff Investment Securities, told employees that his business is “all just one big lie” and “basically, a giant Ponzi scheme,” the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said.In a meeting yesterday at his Manhattan apartment, Madoff, 70, told two senior employees that he was “finished” and had “absolutely nothing,” the SEC said in a civil lawsuit at federal court in Manhattan today. He told the employees his business had been insolvent for years and estimated losses to be about $50 billion, the regulator said.Madoff said he planned to surrender to authorities in a week, after he distributed some of his remaining $200 million to $300 million to select employees, family and friends, the agency said. He was arrested in a related criminal case today on a single count of securities fraud.To contact the reporter on this story: David Scheer in New York at dscheer@bloomberg.net.

Even if it were true, overproduction is not a uniform phenomenon. It is not because the problem is overproduction that every single product or commodity is overproduced. The most widespread characteristic of production in our days is JIT (Just in Time). It results in the same problems as overproduction with the added risk of shortages in the case of a logistic disruption, and believe me, financing is a big disruption.If what you said were true (As it stands now many countries actually pay farmers to produce LESS just to keep food prices artificially high so that farmers can make a decent living.) In the event of a financing disruption, the adjustment (increasing production) would not be immediate leading to shortages (remember last summer?)

CaponeMy interpretation:1- Many guys are worried about monetary base expansion.(M0)2- CNBC published that JP Morgan are lending TARP money.-> Is Multiplier Effect starting?3 – USD Index has “plunged”.4 – Oil increased 20% in two days.Therefore:americans will have to pay more dollars for all needed stuff.Economy is weak, so that … More problems…Recently, bad news implied stock market increases because people think:New bailouts, More FED money, etc…But a fast USD index decline can warn FED, Treasury, Paulson, Geithner, etc… that things can become very dangerous. Time to yield the palm??Lets see the next fed funds rate target.

Look at America: there is no shortage of anything. On the contrary, there are too many houses, too many cars, too many clothes, too many electronics, too much food, too many plastic widgets imported from Asia.The criminal thing is that the prices of many of these items do not come down as much as they should despite a huge oversupply due to overproduction — this demonstrates that America’s market is rigged by the producers who are trying to rip off consumers by keeping prices artificially high.

all of the 8 famous experts and all of the posts here never touch on the psychologicalvulnerability of the economy underbelly-and the terrorist sharks lurking and circling -the Mumbai attack was meant to do accomplish many thingshow much psychological damage did it do? -did the Indians buy more gold after the attack?-did the Indian stock market drop?-did the Indian consumer buy less?

Mr OB Sir,Paraphrased from David Walker, the previous Comptroller:1. A disconnect exists between those who benefit and those who bear the risk or cost.2. Inadequate transparency.3. Integrity matters (in the light of Rating Agency frauds and investor confidence).4. Inadequate regulatory oversight.These are all extremely good points.

It is one of the serious evils of our present system of banking that it enables one class of society, and that by no means a numerous one, by its control over the currency to act injuriously upon the interests of all the others and to exercise more than its just proportion of influence in political affairs……The paper money system and its natural associates, monopoly and exclusive privileges, have already struck their roots deep in the soil; and it will require all your efforts to check its further growth and to eradicate the evil. The men who profit by the abuses and desire to perpetuate them will continue to besiege the halls of legislation in the general government as well as in the states and will seek, by every artifice, to mislead and deceive the public servants. It is to yourselves that you must look for safety and the means of guarding and perpetuating your free institutions.(President Andrew Jackson)Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce.(President James Garfield)

OOPS. Excuse me. PRESIDENT Thomas Jefferson

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Stung by the loss of $2.81 trillion in their net wealth, U.S. households paid down their debts in the third quarter for the first time since at least 1952, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.As of Sept. 30, households’ total outstanding debt shrank at an annual rate of 0.8% from $13.94 trillion to $13.91 trillion, the Fed said in its quarterly flow of funds report. It’s the first decline in household debt ever recorded in the report.**************************************************We have a debt based monetary system. Every dollar loaned into existance must be paid back, with interest. Once credit contracts (debt is reduced) there are fewer dollar available to pay back the debt plus interest. The system will collapse upon itself now. Unless somehow the dollar can make up the difference.**************************************************Total U.S. domestic nonfinancial debt increased at a 7.2% annual rate, boosted by a postwar record 39.2% increase in debt taken on by the federal government.**************************************************Two records set in the same month? Coincidence?**************************************************

CR posted the SEC press release. It is interesting that the SEC is using the words “Ponzi Scheme”SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi SchemeFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE2008-293http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-293.htm

@OBThis feeds right into my asymmetric view posted previously.

Yep–I’ve been saying for weeks they’re going to reinflate the housing bubble. I think the home sellers in my home state still believe their home is “worth” THAT much [bubble value] and they’re stubbornly going to stick to that. In fact, I’m sure that’s what most people on Main Street believe–that their homes are worth the inflated “values” placed on them at the height of the RE bubble. This plays straight into the delusion.

The more they advertise “ethical standards” the more unethical they are.

There is a certain arrogance and (over)confidence that exists where leaders believe that with the cooperation of the media, the psychology of the population can managed.There is anecdotal evidence that would support such a contention (sadly).

No

That can only mean bad things for the stock market tomorrow-300 down on the Dow!

Theme 1: Design of the Economy is FlawedThese issues prevent the economy from functioning optimally. Each problem can be rectified by change in the function of a major player or class of players.JasonB

Finance industry not performing allocation function effectively.

Facts of Life

Delegation of money issuance and money supply management to private interests is a bad idea.

RanMan,ex VRWC

West must regain producer/seller .vs. consumer/buyer status via innovation.

Lord Sidcup

Massive over-supply of labor causing structural re-balancing of world economies.

GSM

Economic policy penalizes savers.

Toby

Focus on high profits causes errors and is not sustainable.

MotherOfGod

The system we’re using to allocate production isn’t working; the imbalances are too great, and the core problems of society aren’t being solved.

David Walker % Ralph

Integrity of rating agencies is severely compromised.

David Walker % Ralph

A disconnect exists between those who benefit and those that bear the risk/costs.

David Walker % Ralph

Inadequate transparency.

Guest3

System doesn’t price-in “externalities” like environmental impact.

Mark, SubGenius

Our economic system is not sustainable. Permagrowth is not possible.

Guest4

Government is in business of allocating resources, and it’s not good at it – e.g. bailouts.

Payam

Government’s role is to build for the future, and that’s not happening.

Lord Sidcup

Global economy is not working in average person’s interests. Rewards go to top players only.

Aerial View, EconomicsMinor, YahItMatters, MotherOfGod, Hubbs, ex VRWC

Winner-take-all concentration of economic benefits – “casino effect”.

Ralph

Economy built on misconception of human nature.

ex VRWC

Profits being siphoned out to remote HQ instead of being used to advance the welfare of communities in which those profits are earned.

amacfly

Banking system needs to be re-designed to reduce tendency toward concentration of wealth / debt slavery.

Cahill, Lord Sidcup, Theta, Guest9, Guest10, Blindman, Hubbs

We don’t know how to equitably and efficiently allocate over-production.

Dr. Steph, Lord Sidcup

Too much of the “work” being done is unnecessary. We’re using make-work to deal with a lack of effective policy for allocating over-production.

Blindman

Producers induce excess consumption because of over-capacity

Theme 3: Individual DeficitsThese problems which are individual traits that may contribute to sub-optimal economic behavior, and generally center on a lack of information, knowledge or motivation:Leo70, EconomicsMinor, P & L, Aerial View, Jomos, AfA

People aren’t educated enough about economic affairs. Knowledge, access to information, motivation differences have a major impact on income disparities.

EconomicsMinor

Individual-level mis-allocation of resources. People don’t really understand / value the difference between consumption and production.

Ex VRWC

People tend to trust financial advisors whose knowledge and intentions were sometimes questionable.

Guest2, GSM, Lord Sidcup

People took on too much debt.

RanMan

People tend to think and act in herds; they need to learn to think more for themselves.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0929462720081212

bet your glad now you went to cash Friday

2c:Somehow in all my irrational exuberance (not) I’ve managed to not include your excellent point in the summary below. You will get a “special mention” post to make amends.

I’ll make special mention of 2Cents’ excellent point about financial system mis-design: not all players have symmetrical, equal access to the financial system infrastructure.He made the related point that every complex system has crucial, strategic control points if only one can identify them.We will likely spend more time contemplating these two topics as we move forward.

American retirees retire in cheaper locations with reduced SS payments. Mexico, Panama, Belize….

@OBI’m honored to be mentioned. Thanks for all your intensity and effort.

There is a new proposal being formulated to stave off the coming credit card default tsunami. Under the proposed regulations, individuals will be allowed to cover their payments by providing personal Level 3 assets to the creditor. The plan has been touted as almost perfect except the acknowledgement that the flea market and garage sale business will likely suffer a serious setback.

@ GuestNot to be flippant, but the US monetary system was rooted in the decimal system and allowed for variable amounts of the physical medium to be widely held. Current practice has replaced the decimal system with a binary system whereby notational “bits” are exchanged through electron/hole pairs. Under the binary system you either have it or you don’t!

… Hull.(british joke)

Guest asks, “Anyone missing John Ryskamp?”Answer: No.Some people cannot express thoughts concisely and civilly. Political discussion boards are ideal for them.

Is it just me,..or are the futures looking very ugly for tomorrow,..tied to the auto’s not getting their bailout perhaps? Down over 300! Hindenburghttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

I think I can “guess” better OR. …but I hate having to call my predictions “guesses”.Miss America…and unless immediate action isn’t taken towards the consumer’s debt (as discussed in my article which was just submitted and should be posted sometime Friday) we will see a number that doesn’t begin with a “number” but rather a sideways symbol. I’m not joking.

Hey OB… Wonderful work. Can I add to the list the themes of my weekly posts, which have been geared recently towards problems I want fixed. (I really do want to get back to alt-en but it needs to wait.)Principal reduction should be out today (…and I’ve been calling for it for almost a year now.)Punitive punishment is not a deterrent. Risk, needs proper punishment! (Money can be the most powerful weapon in the world. Like a gun, if you shoot it in the air, it’s nearly harmless. But if you shoot it recklessly in a crowd, be will be harmed. Money is no different, and the financial elite wear their crowns with arrogance. …and they fire their guns loaded with entitlement… as there is nothing for them to fear!401k inequities/unlevel playing field. (pre production)Steroids in baseball (yes, it’s still on the agenda. Baseball is America’s pastime. Look at the history of the game, and how it correlates to the history of our economy. It has always marked the times. Booms, busts, integration (10 years ahead!!!) etc… What went wrong with our economy draw direct parallel to current contract excess which was fueled by artificially enhanced players through steroids. When did this start??? When did our economic bubbles start??? Hmmm…. It can’t be!!! Not again! Fix baseball, and the country will follow!) I’M VERY SERIOUS ABOUT THIS! We are dealing with a social virus of greed and excess that needs fixing from within.SarbOx enhancement. What good are laws/regulations… if no one will report them and no one will be prosecuted.…and the monopoly money, I will save for bigger fishThanks, Miss America

What a fabulous idea. A “Poverty” magazine. Yes, I have to hand it to you to have come up with a sure-fire winner in these turbulent times. There’s only a teeny-weensie question I have: how can your readers afford to buy it?

1.riots—checked2.riots spreading to other parts of europe—checked3.Soon Russia/China/India will have tons and tons ofof unemployed people = to more riots4.FED is effectively printing money and trying to issue their own debt 50%—checked5.Rates are low now, even if its go to zero it will not change anything—checked6.Housing Residential/Commercial building sectors are imploding globally…. Spain, Dubai…OZ..waaiiit a minute The mayans said it was 12/2012 rite??next year is only 2009…we still got time… mkt is invicible.. buy buy buy

A,i cant recall who coined this phrase,when ww2 was over they descibed it as,a time “when the world went mad”well, here we are at that juncture again

This is a must-read alsoAs the G7 economies plunge over a cliff, the governments and central banks are taking turns at fire fighting in their respective economies. With each new initiative the Crack-Up Boom creeps closer and closer on the horizon as G7 public servants and central banks attempt to RESCUE foolish lenders and borrowers from their approaching demise and insolvency. The attempts will fail and insolvency will be brought to the entire G7 financial systems. Never before in history has more been borrowed and printed to rescue global banking and corporate elites from their hubris and stupidity. Mal investments are crumbling to their REAL value, not their inflated NOMINAL value, and as they do, the banks, financial systems and real economies shudder under the repricing. As reality supplants the fairy tales the greatest opportunities are presented to you!After decades of theft of the purchasing power of your money through fiat currency and credit creation, the rubber band has snapped. This wonderful turn of events allows you to REGAIN much of the purchasing power that was lost, but this is only a temporary turn of events. You must wait like a cat and pounce on the prize of excellent values before your cash begins to crumble again under the latest assault by fiat currency and credit creation; but this opportunity for value is much farther in the future. To be successful now, you must learn to make money in rising and falling markets. BUY and HOLD is DEAD for the time being.At last week’s lows, the return for the S&P 500 on an annualized 10-year basis after inflation was -3.8%. It is quite clear the baby boomers ARE NOT going to RETIRE with the gains accumulated over a lifetime as real estate and stocks have much further to decline. Now their brokers are telling them to hold for the recovery. The new definition of this strategy is buy and HOPE.I have projected earnings to decline to $50 dollars on the S&P 500 and to a multiple of 8. That signals a decline to 400 from Friday’s close at approximately 896. There will be an approximate 60% decline from here. Hope is not an investment strategy. SELL INTO RALLIES!!!Markets are experiencing VOLATILITY not seen since the early 1930’s. Stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and all markets will be repriced to reflect the new realities unfolding before us. VOLATILITY IS OPPORTUNITY for the prepared investor. You must prepare yourself or be a victim of it.A case in point is Citigroup, the next permanent ward of the state. The headlines say it has been spared but the details say something else. Here’s the price: over $300 billion of IMPAIRED mortgage-backed securities were “ring fenced” and most of the future losses to the treasury. Citigroup is to take the first $30 billion of losses and 10% of the losses on the rest, with the FDIC slated to shoulder the bulk of the RISK on the rest. Before the rescue the only thing keeping Citigroup’s equity positive was CARRY FORWARD TAX LOSSES. Sounds like Freddie and Fannie, doesn’t it?The manner in which Citigroup was rescued relegates its shareholders to the boat of former OLIGARCH companies such as: AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and soon the big three automakers. These stocks hold little or no value as the government has rescued them in a manner that never allows the shareholder to recover. Of course, they should not recover anything because they FAILED to properly supervise their investments. Citigroup will never deliver earnings again for common shareholders. Dividends were reduced to one cent a quarter for three years at a 20 to 1 multiple. That means a price of 80 cents, not the 8-and-change it closed at Friday. You can expect most, if not all of the big banks to join Citigroup in the breadline of government sponsored INSOLVENCY!Before this episode is over, you can expect very few of the BIG banks to surpass this. The government inserts itself ABOVE all other investors and the amounts it injects will require DECADES to repay once profitability and the ability to lend is restored. This can be the expected outcome for all the big New York banks along with Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Take a look at these icebergs of potential losses:Add to this consumer, auto, commercial real estate, exploding ARM’s and other lending and you get the idea how much bad debt is yet to be REALIZED. States and municipalities loom large as future deadbeats since borrowing and spending levels reflect the credit and real estate booms of 2003-2007 and income heads into the toilet. You can expect a showdown between the public and state and municipal governments that REFUSE to cut spending. Everything becomes “essential” and they send the bills to their constituents, who can’t pay their own bills.One thing you can COUNT ON during the debate: Whatever spending that is most important to the widest group will be cut FIRST and spending for tiny special interests and political campaign donors will not be mentioned. The headlines and the mainstream media will DUPE the illiterate public.Almost no one is reporting the UNFOLDING debacle in pension funds and insurance companies that purchased assets at the top of the bubble from the same fraudsters at the banks and brokerages who are failing now, and then BORROWED money to enhance returns. Now they are TOAST. An anecdote has surfaced from a friend in the Virgin Islands. He lives in a well-to-do part of the islands. His neighbor has property insurance from Lloyd’s of London. The recent hurricane damaged his neighbor’s house to the tune of approximately $1,000,000. The adjuster visited the house and verified the claim and eligibility. He then mentioned that he would submit the claim, but that the homeowner may not be paid for up to three years as Lloyd’s is a little short of dough these days. What an off handed comment…$1,000,000 should be chicken feed for one of the biggest casualty and property insurers in the world. I guess they need to wait for the markets to recover.Corporate loans for investment-grade companies are almost 900 basis points over treasuries. For lesser companies it approaches 2,000. Bankruptcy looms for credit- dependent firms, GOOD or BAD, as they cannot overcome the cost of capital or be able to roll existing obligations. Share buybacks and mergers and acquisitions have now boomeranged, leaving huge piles of debt on shares purchased at 100 to 300 percent of today’s market prices.These loans are albatrosses around these companies’ necks, dragging them down with INTEREST and PRINCIPAL payments as corporate receipts tumble further than they could have ever imagined. Even some of the smartest managers in the world have succumbed to the SIREN song of easy money and INFLATED wealth. Of course the same overpaid CEO’s still have their salaries from the years when they made these poor decisions. What a price to pay for inflating corporate earnings in the last several years. Of course, these STUPID actions were CELEBRATED as brilliant leadership and wonderful news for investors by the mainstream financial press.The Great ReflationAs regular readers know I have ALWAYS said they will print the money to fix any and everything. The recent events have proven this to be true. I remember my missive just after the first Federal Reserve term-lending facility was created. At that time I said they would widen and widen to trillions of dollars. And they have. But now you must understand that things WILL NEVER return to the way they used to be. The investing, financial and economic landscapes are just in the infancy of what tomorrow will look like. The enormity of what has been done and what is to come is inconceivable to most people.The United States has instituted quantitative easing and now has embarked on the ultimate journey that will turn the G7 into Weimar Republics. This week they announced another term facility known as the Term Asset Backed Securities facility. This will buy asset-backed securities consisting of mortgage-backed securities, auto- backed, student loan-backed, credit cards and small business loans since the private sector refuses to do so. Initially targeted at $800 billion, this too will mushroom as the Federal Reserve is doing any and everything to prevent deflation. But they won’t be borrowing the money as in many of the previous programs. Now they will be PRINTING it. People used to call the Federal Reserve chairman “Helicopter Ben” because of his deflation speech years ago. Now he is “B-52 Ben” as heavier ordinance is required in the ATTEMPT to fill the holes in the nation’s balance sheets and asset values.Over $7.2 trillion has been committed so far. This can be expected to double again from here. The $7.2 trillion does not include Obama’s $700 billion stimulus package or this week’s $800 billion commitment from the Fed. So the amount will soon be $8.6 trillion. Here is a recent overview of all the programs, their costs, what has been spent and what is expected for the future from a recent New York Times:This week Goldman Sachs was the first issuer in the FDIC guaranteed debt issuance. $5 billion was raised at a rate of about 200 basis points over treasuries at approximately 3.36%. Existing Goldman debt from before the guarantees was quoted 750 basis points above treasuries. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are lined up for the gravy train. General Electric is at the guarantee trough for a cool $130 Billion. You know that GE is triple AAA, another dubious mark courtesy of the RATINGS agencies. This transfer of risk from the big banks to the U.S. Treasury will grow to over $800 billion over the next 12 months. It will be in the trillions before they are finished SAVING us.Public serpents are placing their constituents into DEBT slavery to SAVE them. Actually, the public is being killed. The banking and corporate elites who are drowning in their own poor decisions are the actual people being saved. This is the greatest heist in history and it is DESPICABLE. They need to go to the big banks and brokers and place the managers of this mess on trial and in jail. They have committed a total breach of fiduciary responsibility.JP Morgan and Citigroup have far higher exposures looming in commercial real estate and leveraged buyouts. Estimates range to over $300 billion. For instance, do you really think JP Morgan is going to recover much from its financing of the Cerberus acquisition of Chrysler?Additionally, JP Morgan is on the hook for over $9.2 TRILLION of over-the-counter CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS in one way or another. This is about 20% of the total outstanding market. The question is, when they hedged their risk were the counter parties RICH ENOUGH to PAY OFF? My guess is that 30 to 40% of these counterparties have little or no ability to PAY. Who will fill the hole in their balance sheet? Either the Treasury (by BORROWING the money) or the FED (by PRINTING it) will. Either way, it’s the public who pay back the debt in future earnings or savers when their purchasing power is stolen while their money sits in the bank via DEBASEMENT.Now instead of them being on the hook for the payback it will be you, me and our children. These companies are bankrupt. They must be allowed to die and pass into the hands of PRUDENT managers and stronger hands. The irony and OUTRAGE of this is that management is allowed to stay in the hands of these incompetent fraudsters.To put this amount of spending into perspective, let’s examine a recent missive from James Bianco at BiancoResearch in Chicago:”Jim Bianco of Bianco Research crunched the inflation adjusted numbers. The bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures – combined:• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billionTOTAL: $3.92 trillion (data courtesy of Bianco Research)That is $686 billion less than the cost of the credit crisis thus far.The only single American event in history that even comes close to matching the cost of the credit crisis is World War II: Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillionThe $4.6165 trillion dollars committed so far is about a trillion dollars ($979 billion dollars) greater than the entire cost of World War II borne by the United States: $3.6 trillion, adjusted for inflation (original cost was $288 billion).”Thank you, James.So the cost of the current crisis is greater than all of the above, including World War II, and can be expected to at least DOUBLE from here. And of course Bianco uses the OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT measures of inflation, not the true numbers like we find at http://www.shadowstats.com .Now here’s the BAD news:THESE NUMBERS DO NOT INCLUDE THE REST OF THE G7 and they are in as much or more trouble than the United States. The reality of this has just BEGUN to be felt. It has happened so fast that the ALTERED REALITY we will endure is only in its infancy!!!

@ Guest – “Look at America: there is no shortage of anything.”I must differ on this one (I know that the intent of your statement was about consumer products…;^)… There is a huge shortage of the following:1. Ethics – particularly in government and banking2. Transparency – again, acutely in government and banking3. Jobs4. Trust (consistent with a shortage in Ethics and transparency)5. Legal immigration visas6. Affordable health careI could go on…PKB

I hope the Cerberus leeches* start to experience some heavy duty karma real soon.* I assume you all know how these leveraged buyout outfits, now in their way to extinction, used to operate. They bought the outfits using OPM (other people’s money) via debt, and then just drained the cash flow. Kinda like what WB did with the original Berkshire-Hathaway but of course WB did it without the leverage and without screwing workers as much.http://www.buffettsecrets.com/berkshire-hathaway.htm

Becoming a Japan would actually be an upgrade for U.S.A.

Please get a new handle…I can’t stop laughing!

One could take the average of the numbers above to get around 6500, or start resorting to guys who have been more wrong than right like Bill Gross and aim for 5000 and under:-)

It looks like Rosemberg has been reading Shilling’s newsletter:-)

Dow futures down 259S&P futures down 34This is not good, but far from a catosrophe’The world will not end today!

Don’t they lock at around -2.5%?

This is my feeling for what is going on with market psychology now:Of course, the never ending stream of bad news is bringing the markets down to earth once again. However, a very important psychological factor that may have equal or even more weight is the recent blow, even if underserved, to “Obama’s Camelot”; courtesy of the crook governor of Illinois.People all over the world are really stupid: They believe politicians/popular presidents, are bigger than life and can save them from all kinds of harm while they do nothing. They did it with Peron in Argentina, Chavez in Venezuela, etc. They believe these charismatic fellows can save the world. I have no doubt Obama is a smart, capable guy and that he was the better choice for president, but those who beleieve he can work out miracles are in for a BIG disappointment.I said it after Tuesday’s close:Looks like week will cool off. Back down to reality again.Octavio Richetta on 2008-12-09 17:17:46Actually it is next week when the big cool off takes place – look out in the West including CA – and all the way down to Texas as an Arctic blast heads your way -Guest on 2008-12-09 18:10:12Seattle Area: Current Temp 44 F, Winds Calm.Thanks for the info about next week.Henry on 2008-12-09 20:42:52′bear’ in mind both the climate and markets are volatile but I will keep you postedReply to this comment By Guest on 2008-12-09 21:03:59

For months I heard Nouriel Roubini say that the fundamentals to the system were flawed and that the consumer is tapped out and way to much credit. I am looking around here on Long Island and see people every day losing their jobs. How will the consumer pay down debts ? Is the system going to just like that, no longer be flawed ? With the trillions that have been spent and going to be spent along with all the obligations worth trillions, is this the reason for a slow recovery ? There seems to be some common sense missing

Arthur ?

OK. Maybe I’m just stupid. I don’t understand the logic that we can borrow our way out of debt. I don’t know why we borrow to give our bankers money that they will loan back to us at interest. I don’t understand why our politicians work for our lobbyists and not for us. Lots of things I don’t know. I’m learning to accept it. But this is killing me. Our congress has put $700b in the Friends of Hank Fund NPO and they won’t give a factory worker in MI nothing. Economics aside. That seems stupid. I see P I T C H F O R K S in our futures ===€The prospect of which might be a hopeful thing.

ok, all you competent people, let’s see a show of hands.)

Oh yeah. Link.Deflation has become inevitable

“SP500 $50 , P/E of 8 , target 400″ Don’t forget markets tend to overshoot their target price.

MMWF:come on calm down! yes, it looks like the open on friday will be down a few hundred to start. It’s not the end of the world. the market has gone up and down 300 points in the past few months many times. no armegeddon yet. hang in there. when it goes down 1000, then you can call it.

I am still thinking bear rally for a while

Oh charity work, good show!

Blago’s potential to hurt Obama has to matter here, too.

that’s a Reuters story, stop blowing the WSJ.

When I lived in Harvard Square, there used to be a free paper given out about and by homeless people.

CPG companies are due a windfall vis a vis commodities (timing depends on their hedge)- they got their prices up on the back of higher costs and will be loath to give those increases back to the consumer – Same for the private label / store brand guys though they will be under pressure from the retailers to give some back – Another consideration is international exposure and currency risk. Finally pay attention to the balance sheets and credit exposure – none of these guys are immune to the “real world”.

OK, I’m back following my self-imposed exile for a week or so. Did I miss anything?FT – The Congress will continue to work for the lobbied interests until this changes: For every single member of congress, there are currently 6 registered lobbyists.See, we can’t talk with our reps, but if you have influence (read: money to donate to re-election coffers) you get what you want.We are beyond the time for change.

@ORso do you think you think there’s a chance that you’ll recant and maybe test the market waters later today?I’ve gotta think that this auto thing is going to get a weekend save via the TARP – (just like Friday’s past I think we’ll see some clues today if the market suddenly spikes later today) GM and F will be the canaries to watch

Presumption is that 401k money is invested in stocks and when withdrawn will not be reinvested in stocks but rather used to reduce debt, pay interest on debt, or consume.

Did anyone notice that Jim Rogers is reading a Chinese newspaper in the Fortune magazine article?

GSM- tks for the tip. I’m on my way over.

i will be awhile catching up, but there is a NEW THREAD now

“…reports that the US Treasury will borrow and spend up to $US 2.1 TRILLION next year…”What’s with the “will borrow” bit?With the unprecedented flight to cash recently, which inevitably ends up in US treasuries because the rest of the credit market is paralyzed, surely the value of bonds issued has already reached or surpassed that amount.Unless it is somehow returned to the credit channels, it just adds to the existing credit debacle.If the credit channels (including the end user, that’s us), can’t or won’t handle it (and we can’t), it must be spent either directly by the state or handed out as employment or dividend to the population to spend.To do otherwise will further depress economic activity and ensure further falls in asset prices which will precipitate more asset liquidation, in other words, a vicious circle.The demand for treasuries, if not counter-balanced, will add to the already extensive list of problems that we have to deal with.

Excellent points!

And most thought it would happen there first:-) IMO, the Aussie bust may end up being uglier than ours.

I am not a good speculator, unless I can fool myself into thinking the move is a good one from a fundamental point of view. Lots of people are geared up for a year end rally. The argument is that with long T bonds at under 3% stocks are undervalued. IMO, the only reason we don’t see the rally is that the news couldn’t be worse!:-)Now in regards to your question. Most likely I will not consider going in heavy until we see lower lows than November. Also, I want to have a happy and quiet holiday season. Lock in my 11.7% for the year for good. I’ve had the golden touch lately but i don’t count on it lasting.

OR, thanksI see it as a long term short. But your comment of ‘low quality’ yet at high prices seems like a real problem for them!

except there isn’t any

The Predictive Science of Nonstochastic Saturation Macroeconomicshttp://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/?p=4The complex macroeconomy operates by regular patterns akin to those of the hard sciences of physics and chemistry and is exactly represented by ideal timed-based unit, elegantly simple, quantum fractal progressions which compose the macroeconomy’s ongoing summation wealth markers – its daily asset classes’ valuation saturation curves. This quantum mathematical fractal regularity, this growth and decay patterned predictable behavior of nonstochastic asset valuation saturation and decay is the essence of the exact science that is nonstochastic saturation macroeconomics. This predictive science with asset valuation growth bounded qualitatively by asset overvaluation, asset overproduction, partially nonserviceable accumulated debt, and wages from ongoing jobs to service that debt, can be used to reckon the time frames of asset saturation highs and the time course and fractal progression to saturation asset valuation lows. The absolute values of asset class valuation highs and lows are dependent on the availability of desired assets and degree of preceding and ongoing credit expansion to obtain those assets. This credit expansion is dependent on the variables of lending rates, lending qualification parameters, and the telescoping of credit through fractional (derivative) electronic repackaging of real and virtual credit and the credit derivatives of asset artificial over valuation. Prospectively applying the empirically-derived simple asset valuation quantum fractal laws, a larger primary operating growth and decay valuation saturation fractal pattern has been recently identified which likely represents the time sequence of the US Composite Equity 150-160 year Great Second Fractal’s nonlinear collapse, The 11/27/22 month or 46/115/92 week Wilshire fractal growth series starting in October 2002 and ending in the 19 July 2007 high follows the x/2.5x/2x three phase Lammert quantum valuation saturation growth fractal sequence. A reflexive 20/50/40 day fractal took the Wilshire to an exactly predicted interday high on 11 October 2007. In the 2005 above cited reference a predicted extension of the third fractal growth period of 2x to 2-2.5x was made. The Wilshire’s 11 October 2007 nominal high fell into the time span of this predicted 22-27 month extension (11/27/22-27months). The Wilshire’s final third fractal extension to 2x-2.5x :: 22-27 month valuation saturation area now has pertinance in relationship to a larger identified fractal pattern. It is the nature of fractals that there are interpolated operative fractal patterns within yet larger fractal patterns. The largest operative macroeconomic valuation saturation fractal pattern for the United States’ primitive stock exchanges began very proximal to the establishment of its constitution. About 70 years later in 1858, the US Great Second Fractal of time length 2-2.5x began. Nonlinear asset decay within the terminal 2x to 2.5x portion is the hallmark of second fractals and 1998 marked the 2x or 140 year time length – entering the terminal 2x to 2.5xperiod of asset devaluation nonlinearity. This post 1998 entry into the time period of nonlinearity has biased this observer’s past asset valuation fractal interpretations. Retrospectively all fractal progression has been consistent with the larger picture of money growth leading to the inevitable ideal asset valuation saturation time frames. The decade or two leading to 1998 and the decade thereafter caused an extension of the 2x: 140 year second fractal length but still within the larger 35 year 2x -2.5x window. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of the Asian manufacturing giants, first Japan and Korea and then China and southeast Asia supplying US retailers with less expensive robotic produced or extremely low labor cost produced items; the rise of the transoceanic transportation industry importing those goods with a correlative surge in transportation related equity valuations; the Eastern symbiotic feedback investment of US dollar profits in US debt instruments allowing continuation of the trade arrangement, the development of the personal computer and its associated software industry, the globalization of US corporations seeking higher profits with outsourcing of expensive US jobs, and the overwhelmingly predominant critical element of the computer based electronic sophisticated manipulations of the unregulated financial and banking industries who telescoped the global money and credit supply into virtual money instruments for the purpose of large front end profits and who were essential in selling US debt instruments to the emerging Eastern manufacturers and maintaining the strange paper for goods arrangement -all of these elements have interacted since 1998 to create two successive asset bubbles created by the available excessive telescoped credit. The PC and Internet equity bubble with froth spillover into other equity classes resembled the Tulip Mania and select undetermined South Sea Instruments credit-available asset saturation bubbles from 360 and 280 years before. This bubble crested in March 2000. The follow-on massive Federal Reserve imprudently low interest rate credit expansion combined with an unregulated financial and banking industries’ credit telescoped and sophisticated debt repackaged credit expansion – with unprincipled lending to the most marginal of buyers(debtors) who had no possibility of servicing the debt – created one of the greatest rotating asset valuation saturation bubbles of all time. The real estate, equity, and commodity bubbles crested in 2006, October 2007, and July 2008, respectively. The commodity asset bubble involved the world’s waning oil supply which is both finite and limited by producers’ capacity to pump it from depleted old fields or convert it from oil sand equivalents. World production capacity did not meet global demand, which was a function of explosive world economic activity expanded by the financial industries’ telescoped credit availability and by the financial industry’s assisted creation and sales of US debt instruments to the new Eastern manufacturing giants – with enormous front end profits. Within a time span of six months, a rapidly contracting real global economy, created a situation whereby available supply overwhelmed fallen demand with oil declining over 100 US dollars per barrel – a remarkable but expected – second fractal nonlinear collapse of asset valuation. It is better stated that the credit expansion leading to these recent 2000 and 2006-2008 US generational asset class valuation saturation areas began with the ‘create work’ economic policies and new entitlement programs in the 1930′s and even earlier with the debt and credit enabling private banking US Federal Reserve establishment in 1913. The rapid growth of entitlement programs have created forward governmental borrowing which further expands ongoing credit. But it is well recognized by responsible parties inclusive of the former comptroller of the United States that these entitlement programs are fiscally impossible to sustain in the out years.What then is the larger quantum asset saturation fractal pattern for the 140-175 year US Equity asset class Great Second Fractal nonlinear collapse? 1998 marked the beginning of the US composite Great Second Fractal’s terminal 2x-2.5x possible interval range. The successive great credit driven asset bubbles have extended the interval but made the inevitable nonlinear ending much more catastrophic for enabled debtors and last musical chair asset owners. For the Wilshire, proxy for the world’s equity valuation, starting in October 1998, a growth fractal of 2/5/4 months occurred. A decay fractal of 7/18/17 months thereafter evolved with the initiating 7 months occurring in the saturation area of the 2/4/5 month third fractal 4 month high. In credit cycles asset valuation growth begins in the antecedent decay fractal areas and conversely decay begins in the the antecedent terminal saturation growth areas. A complex 3/7/6 month growth fractal began in last month or two of the 18 month third decay fractal during the time frame of June-July 2002. This 14 month asset valuation fractal is followed by a second 35 month 2.5x growth fractal and a 28 month third growth fractal. A similar monthly fractal pattern exist for the CAC, FTSE, and DAX. For the NIKKEI, a 14/32/28 month Lammert fractal parallels the US and European composite equity valuation saturation pattern. Note that even the NIKKEI falls into the Lammert x/2-2.5x/2x fractal growth pattern. The third fractal 28th month for the Wilshire, CAC, FTSE, DAX, and NIKKEI is September 2008 – the lower high valuation sation area time frame where the Wilshire’s incipient nonlinear decline began. The Wilshire’s weekly fractal sequence correlative to the incipient 3/7/6 or 14 month base fractal is minimally complicated with a terminal decay weekly fractal series conjoined with an incipient weekly growth fractal series forming the first growth fractal of the 2002-2003 three phase weekly fractal growth sequence. The weekly fractal progression commencing in June 2002 is a decay sequence of 7/17/18 weeks where valuation growth begins in the second weekly decay fractal resulting in a nodal 17 week low – but not an underlying slope line 17 week absolute lower low. The third decay fractal of 18 weeks does end in a slope line lower low in March of 2003. The last 5 weeks of the third 18 week decay fractal becomes the base for the next fractal series of 5/11/12 weeks. The combined decay fractal series and growth fractal series occurred at the interface of a period of ending credit contraction and beginning credit expansion and had a duration of 61 weeks. The second fractal nodal lows occurred at week 150 and 155 with an average of 152.5 weeks consistent with an ideal first fractal base of 60 and 62 with an average of 61 weeks. 120 weeks after the 150 week second fractal nodal low or at 2X of the ideal first 60 week base, the final lower high third fractal saturation area yielded to the incipient area of the nonlinear 1.5-1.6x fourth decay fractal. The time frame of this the Wilshire’s third fractal 120 week final lower high valuation saturation area was during the 3rd to 4th week of September 2008 with a non linearity occurring at week 122 or about the second week in October 2008. The monthly and weekly fractal sequences for the Wilshire from June – July 2002 near the end of the internet asset valuation and credit bubble collapse are 14/35/28 months and 61/150-155/120-122 weeks – both conforming rather precisely to a x/2.5x/2x Lammert fractal growth progression. The 1.5-1.6x decay fractal for the completion of the x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.62x Lammert growth and decay fractal series would ideally last about 21-23 months or 90-98 weeks. Currently as of 13 December 2008, the four phase x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.62x Lammert growth and decay equity asset valuation saturation sequence starting in June -July 2002 is 14/35/28/3-4 of 21-23 months and the weekly pattern is 61/152.5/120-122/10-12 of 90-98 weeks. Reviewing again the Wilshire’s 11/27/22-27 month interpolated growth fractal commencing in October 2002, an interesting observation can be made about the 22-27 month extended third fractal containing the new science of saturation macroeconomics predicted 11 October 2007 nominal intraday high. A 6 month or 24 week fractal contains the 11 October 2007 22-27 month third fractal high. This could reasonably be the incipient base for a decay fractal sequence of y/2.5y/2.5y :: 6/12 of 15/15 months or as of 13 December 2008 y/2.5y/2.y :: 24/47 of 60/60 weeks. The terminal area of this interpolated weekly decay fractal in 72 weeks approximates the terminal area of the 61/152.5/120-122/12 of 90-98 week larger four phase Lammert fractal saturation valuation series occurring in 78–86 weeks with possible nodal valuation lows marked both end areas. And interestingly because this is the conclusion of such an enormous 140-175 year US equity second fractal, this fractal sequence may be an interpolated valuation fractal series and part of a 40/77 of 97/100 month larger decay fractal sequence starting in the saturation third fractal 4 month area of a 2/5/4 growth fractal beginning in October 1998 with an incipient base decay fractal of 7/18/17 or 40 months. This decay series would place a nodal low approximately 9 1/2 years. This would roughly parallel gold’s expected nodal low with a 7/17/14/10-11 year Four phase Lammert valuation saturation fractal series beginning in 1970. For the smaller interpolated global composite equity fractal series of 14/32-35/20/21-23 months and gold’s monthly interpolated valuation saturation series. proxy for the CRB commodities, of 20-21/51/41/2 of 31 months and of 17/35/34/10 of 25 months, a further 80-90 per cent decline of equity and commodity values is possible over the next 16-20 months with long term debt US instruments approaching zero yields.

Remember when a child in the 70s SWALLOWED a bottle of whole bottle of aspirin…adults everywhere in the US since then had to grapple with hard to open ASPIRIN bottles…the Lawyers prevailed over the unconscionable practices of our developed/civilized society…(we’re talking about ASPIRIN!)Now Here we are with Madoff…THREE written complaints to the SEC, including quantitative analyses as to why he’s running a Ponzi scheme…and we get NOTHING. Because the elites of our society KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING!The Schysters win and so do the Hedgies!cheers.

2970645 beers on the wall.

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