Nummer Eins

First?

tredje, derde, troisième, drittel, τρίτος, terzo, terceiro, терция, tercero, tredje, 第三人, 제3, 第3の, الثالث, שלישיThird?

Have you ever studied the writings of Ryscamp? Your writing style appears to have been influenced by him.

@ Outerbeltway & Miss ItalyOB, I have taken some liberties… (I’m sorry for not asking in advance) and contacted some media sources, to explain the grassroots evolution that may be taking place within the community of bloggers with regards to our economic crisis. In addition, I will likely pop in and out of the conference call. I’m sorry, but meetings/conflicts will prevent me from participating in the full hour.I have not yet heard back from them, but I will let you know what I hear.In the meantime, it’s my opinion that in order to gain traction and merit, we need some media savvy ideas that will help the evolution of our network.First: A catchy name / acronym that can be passed on to the media. So that media outlets can quote/reference) I hate to say it, but catchy sells! (in other words… I’d consider ditching “RGE BrainTrust”. It’s your baby, so I won’t force you to rename it… but I suggest giving it some thought.)Simple ideas that come to mind are:I.C.E. – Independent Community/Committee of Economists???P.F.E.C – The People’s Forum for Economic Change(ex. Minutes from the first I.C.E. meeting were as follows…)Second: Well designed “talking points”. (Most bloggers enjoy anonymity. I suspect there will be many “ghosts” on the conference call so be prepared to speak often if you are going to be a contributor.)@ Miss Italy “If you build it… He will come” – Field of Dreams. I would be willing to participate if you can put something together. I am 9-5 M-F, so I’d need to work around that obligationThanks, and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.Miss America

Suggestion – in selecting a name or acronym – see if you can register the .org /.com domain equivalent at the same time.

Test TimeDJIA 8,228.66 -44.92S&P 500 839.82 -10.93NASDAQ 1,455.17 -26.88as of 13:17 ETTuesday, November 18, 2008

massive asset deflation coming – so far 30 Trillion in asset losses and only 3 Trillion in govt printing is the current score -

I was just about to say the same thing. Very familiar. And lets be realistic yes there is some inequality but comparing a fruit picker to a ceo is not equitable. A CEO could pick fruit, a fruit picker without education would not know the first thing about running a company and I mean all the regulatory criteria that must be addressed. Engineers do jobs that 99% of us could not ever fathom, they deserve to be at the top of the food chain. Doctors don’t deserve the inequity against nurses who do 90% of the work, the docs deserve more but not 5-10X more. You could go on forever with comparisons but let’s be realistic not every job deserves “EQUAL” pay it just doesn’t make sense.

Think of all the people who have vacation homes who are underwater and can’t even afford their primary residence.

Why involve the media in early talks? Its the media who exagerates and makes things worse.I think once we have solid agendas and working groups, then we could seek attention and use media as leverage. The first talk atleast is going to be very broad and vague (no solid research)Just my 2cents.

BOOOM! Told ya!

What support levels are you looking at? Any technical analysts out there?

if it breaks 818 on S&P – next stop 788

This constant saving at the lows is getting annoying to say the least.

RGE BrainTrust Conference Call AgendaCall starts: Wednesday November 19 at 09:00 U.S. ESTDuration: 1 hour8:45 – 9:00 Call in, announce yourself to the group. Dial this U.S. number: 218.339.4300Enter this access code: 882086# (don’t forget the pound sign)9:00 – 9:05 Establish conference call protocolsee reference materials below for protocol.9:06 – 9:10 RGE representative’s remarks (if RGE cares to make any)9:15 – 9:20 Establish the process for deciding our:Mission. Define our common ground. Vote on it now.Strategy. Priorities and plans – debate it on the blog, vote next meetingSubgroups. Which ones are necessary to execute the mission. Debate it on the blog, vote next meetingRefer to reference materials below for more detail.9:21 – 9:30 Vote on this proposed “common ground” mission statement:We are going to build and use grass-roots power to influence the evolution of our economy.9:30 – 9:45 Open mike. “My vision of what this organization could accomplish”. Moderator will solicit up to 3 presentations from the group.* 2 minutes to tell,* 3 minutes for Q & A9:46 – 9:50 Set time for next meeting. Nov 26th, or Dec 3?9:51 – 10:00 Presentation: Tools for rebuilding our economy from the bottom up.Presenter: OuterBeltway* 5 minutes to tell* 5 minutes for Q & A===== Reference Materials for First Conference Call =======1. Protocol for running a conference call• Moderator controls the “you-have-the-floor” baton• Speak only when you have the baton• Stay within your time allocation• Pass the baton between moderator and presenter• Pass the baton between presenter and interlocutor2. Decisions that build strong, effective organizationsMission. What is our strongly-held common groundGovernance. How do we set direction and allocate resources. Minimalist.Strategy. How do we:* Pick goals. Make plans. Allocate resources. Adapt to reality.* Accommodate diversity of interests while accomplishing the main group goalsSpecialization. What sub-groups are created based on need, interest, and commitmentCulture. How do we relate to one another, and to our external challengesInstitutional knowledge. How do we establish and maintain the core things that we all know about our situationIncentives. Why would people expend the time and energy to do the group’s work?Resources. How will we identify and acquire the time, energy, contacts, materials and tools we need to be powerful?3. Finding the common groundWhat we have in common* We are powerless. Evidence of this is the $700B bailout. It was an expensive, dumb idea that passed in spite of almost universal opposition.* We see big changes coming, and we don’t like what we see.* We don’t have the proper tools to influence the outcomes.* We are not poised to take advantage of the impending economic crisis.* We don’t currently have a strategy to change our situationWe will vote on this proposed mission statement:We are going to build and use grass-roots power to influence the evolution of our economy.4. Where we differOur differences are mainly in terms of which problems to attack, and in what order. Prioritization.One operational strategy is to build infrastructure that can be used at either the individual or the group level. We come together to build power and apply it according to our common interests, and we go our separate ways to do things at the individual or sub-group levels. It is possible to build such an organization.5. Sub-groupsHere are some possible topics to form sub-groups around. What sub-groups do you think are needed?Tools. What tools do we need to increase the group’s power?Institutional knowledge. What are the things we need to know in common?Economic forces. What are the main forces causing the economy to change?Debates or Speaker’s Bureau. Topics might include such things as:* What’s a valid stimulus plan, and how can it be paid for?* What are the main forces affecting the evolution of tomorrow’s economy?* How is our situation today different from 1930, and how is it the same?* What are the sociological forces that will impact the adaptation of Western economies to globalization and resource contention?Administration* Scheduling, promotion of events (calls, presentations, debates, etc.)* Scribe

LOLOL Almost green!

by Friday

We have a trinagle setting up for hte magic 2:00 hour-lets see if we melt up or melt down….

CITI is about to break $8 – I think this market gets a 7 handle today

To Anonymous:Petty moralistic statements yield little insight into complex financial-economic structures, institutions and governments.The mere fact that we can actually avert a ten year ‘Great Starvation’ event (our present mess is worse than the Great Depression by a factor of ten) is testimony to our intellectual achievements of the last fifty years in financial mtters.The mere fact that we have a professor of Roubini’s stature dictating tentative solutions in a holistic global frame is itself worthy of notice.Globally there are less than ten competent economists to unravel this mess by lucid academic papers securely rooted in astute arcane mathematical calculations drawn from Partial & Differential Equations and Algebraic Geometry.Pedestrian word language ["yak-yak"] cannot capture the subtlties and nuances of our present plight. It is mathematical language or numbers that capture physical reality alone!John E.D.P. Malin & James F.D.P. MalinCecilia, Louisiana 70521-0460Contact Information: InformaticaMalin@gmail.com–

SAVED AGAIN!! CNBC can f-off if they think the PPT doesn’t save key levels!

MAIN ENGINE 2 START COMMAND

MAIN ENGINE 1 START COMMANDT-ZERO SRB IGNITION

Dow is green. This is just unfathomable.

If the SSO takes out $22.72, stocks will go into free-fall mode. That is why their is interest from certain “entities” to protect this level.

WOW! WHat a fight here!

I hate rigged games!

Could you briefly explain what the SSO is and why they would go into freefall? I cannot make any sense of the volatility swings here!

S&P less than 680.

Roubini’s estimates of houses falling by 40 percent at average is rather modest. I came here to NYC in 1997 and my uncle’s place as I remember was worth 200000. Now the same place is worth a million or around. Ridiculous. How much change in income (GDP) should a bubble which has inflated the value 4,5 times accomodate?

Dow with a 400 point reversal in the last several minutes.

this is / was wave 5 down of the most clear and concise 5 wave pattern. 1 – 4 and the start of 5 could probably be used in a text book. then since this is the united states of america, introduce the manipulators and wave 5 becomes bent, untrue, fabricated and insulting to truth.i wonder how the russians and chinese feel about the us ability to paint their charts while their respective indices have already crashed into oblivion. must be the God given right of the USA to rig the market.do you smell that? it is another day of decaying november options. another day of november cleared by the house – have to at a minimum clear the november puts off the table before going down.not sure what the books say on wave 1 -4 taking 7.5 days and wave 5 taking 6+ days to complete? throw out the books when you are watching complete and total distortion of truth by criminals.

Even the Nasdaq is green now. Lets bombard CNBC to get there take on teh dramatic save of crucial levels.

Looks like the old “Max Pain” theory is alive and well ‘eh?

Mandarin: Too bad. I was looking forward to your participation. When convenient, pls drop me a line at outerbeltway at yahoo dot com.

all this energy to keep the stock market up. at this point, the consumers are not going to go out and spend like they are supposed to regardless of a few points in the standard and ponzi 500 index and the dow jones industrial ponzi schemehouse prices down, stocks down – depressing isn’t it? the up moves presented as a production to the sheeple to make them feel better are like a dealer giving his crack head customer smaller and smaller doses over time and expecting him to get highBen and Hank, I sincerely hope you are enjoying yourselves getting pummeled in front of Congress regularly and undoubtedly being highly stressed most days and nights. Perhaps what comes around goes around and your utter disregard for the integrity of a true MARKET, that is M A R K E T, specifically the equity markets over the past few years has come back to haunt you as it should gentlemen.

Drucker? well done!

I believe that the good doctor said at the beginning of 2008, cash is king for 08. As usual, he was right.

What to do?They — Buffet, Hussman, Grantham, Comstockfunds.com, et. al — say stocks are fairly valued now. Alan Ableson says they are still overvalued. Our professor says they are grossly overvalued?My head is spining.

From previous thread,”The greatest shortcomingof the human race is ourinability to understandthe exponentialfunction.” – Prof.Al BartlettDr. Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy[Transcribed from a speech]It’s a great pleasure to be here, and to have a chance just to share with you some very simple ideas about the problems we’re facing. Some of these problems are local, some are national, some are global.They’re all tied together. They’re tied together by arithmetic, and the arithmetic isn’t very difficult. What I hope to do is, I hope to be able to convince you that the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.Well, you say, what’s the exponential function?This is a mathematical function that you’d write down if you’re going to describe the size of anything that was growing steadily. If you had something growing 5% per year, you’d write the exponential function to show how large that growing quantity was, year after year. And so we’re talking about a situation where the time that’s required for the growing quantity to increase by a fixed fraction is a constant: 5% per year, the 5% is a fixed fraction, the “per year” is a fixed length of time. So that’s what we want to talk about: its just ordinary steady growth.Well, if it takes a fixed length of time to grow 5%, it follows it takes a longer fixed length of time to grow 100%. That longer time’s called the doubling time and we need to know how you calculate the doubling time. It’s easy.You just take the number 70, divide it by the percent growth per unit time and that gives you the doubling time. So our example of 5% per year, you divide the 5 into 70, you find that growing quantity will double in size every 14 years.Well, you might ask, where did the 70 come from? The answer is that it’s approximately 100 multiplied by the natural logarithm of two. If you wanted the time to triple, you’d use the natural logarithm of three. So it’s all very logical. But you don’t have to remember where it came from, just remember 70.I wish we could get every person to make this mental calculation every time we see a percent growth rate of anything in a news story. For example, if you saw a story that said things had been growing 7% per year for several recent years, you wouldn’t bat an eyelash. But when you see a headline that says crime has doubled in a decade, you say “My heavens, what’s happening?”OK, what is happening? 7% growth per year: divide the seven into 70, the doubling time is ten years. But notice, if you want to write a headline to get people’s attention, you’d never write “Crime Growing 7% Per Year,” nobody would know what it means. Now, do you know what 7% means?End////////- TobyIf you would put population growth in a time line, you will se the graph of an exponential function, energy consumption, US debt, minerals, fish, farming land etc etc, the list is long. They all look exponential to me, and guess what, it goes fast in the end.If you then understand the our current monetary system is based upon continous growth is does not take a geniuos to figure out that it is not sustainable.The question is when and that I hope someone could be more specific about.Which exponetial graph is the most critical one and when do it hit the roof?Who, but the grass roots can drive us towards a “steady-state” economy?/Toby

“You want to play the market, Charlie? You want to gamble? OK, go ahead, make some hay. But not too much. You see, they don’t like it when you make hay off them.” –JP MarquandYou can feel it coming. In the end “they” will drop shares until they have picked up every last certificate for ten cents on the dollar. This is how dynasties are founded and empires are built. It’s just theft, and we collude with it in the hope of getting rich. They inherit the world, we inherit the wind.

Anyone having a few US$ left to spare, you might want to consider buying Niall Ferguson’s latest book “The Ascent of Money” (2008).p.3 “Corporate Finance was the indispensable foundation of both the Dutch and British empires, just as the triumph of the US in the twentieth centurey was inseparable from advances in insurance, mortgage finance and consumer credit. Perhaps, too, it will be a financial crisis that signals the twilight of American global primacy.”p.3 “It was financial folly, a self-destrictoive cycle of defaults and devaluations, that turned Argentina from the world’s sixth-richest country in the 1880s into the inflation-ridden basket case of the 1980s.”p.10 “It is not too much to say that in mid-2008 we witnessed the inflationary symptoms of a world war without the war itself.”p.29 “What the conquistadores failed to understand is that money is a matter of belief, even faith: belief in the person paying us; belief in the person issuing the money he uses or the or the institution that honors its cheques or transfers. Money is not metal. It is trust inscribed.”

@iNnOsInZ:YOU are the media – at least part of it. And, don`t expect mainstream media to cover a story called “some dozen of Roubini bloggers hold a conference call to discuss the future of the global economy”. The news will be fit to print, if we DO (or publish) something.@MA et al.: Better than an acronym would be a brand name: What about “The Roubini Gang”?

I watched the video and I felt that Thomas Zimmerman was trying to convince himself as to why the housing market should not fall that much further. I don’t see the flippers and investors as helping to put a floor under the market the way he does. Someone bought an REO in my neighborhood, a “nice” stable neighborhood. The flipper keeps lowering his price to get a sale. It’s hurting value in the development.

Capitalism lives- only in California- lolhttp://www.stockmarketattorney.com/index.html

Nice post, Jimmy. I believe you can also learn a lot about the trend by following the individual stocks in dow as opposed to only following the average. It’s not a monolith. If the dow goes from 9500, down to 9000, then to 8500, then back to 9000, in the end, almost all of the 30 dow stocks will be a different price the second time the dow hit 9K than the first.

iNnOsInZ: I hope you’re planning to attend the conf call. You have excellent organizational instincts.

thanks that’s a great summary and good insight

What do you think of buying the short ETF (SH or SDS) while it is above the 200 day moving average and then switch to long ETF (SPY) when that is above the 200 day moving average. I looked at prior charts and it seems to consistently outperform. It can’t be that easy can it? What do you all think?

Assorted voices on this blog have suggested that America’s future would be better served without as much consumer greed, or excessive use of valuable resources. Among the problems, they say, is over consumption. Some even have suggested that Americans, in fact, now have almost everything they need, and so to add anything additional would be excessive. To this, I’d like to add my analysis to this “slippery slope of gluttony,” a gluttony, it’s said, that’s pulling America down to destruction.What, I ask, is ambition if not but to do something or to be something, or…just to look nice?That said, fashion is worthless. Wouldn’t it be efficient if we wore uniforms as in Mao’s China – unisex uniforms because they would be so much easier to manufacture? And couldn’t they be made of some kind of peasant cloth, instead of expensive fabric — dark blue cotton, say, for techs; standard green for the military; gray versions for administrative and clerical workers and Congress? America would save billions.Once we toss the fashion, why is it that we’re all interested in this variety of foods, all these different kinds of preparations? Wouldn’t it be easier if we went to a healthy mix of inexpensive food that everyone could be provided? Look at the money we could save without supermarkets and delis! With proper research, something like sea rations could be made to be somewhat tasteful. It might be difficult to accept at first, but, again, we would save billions, and we would have so much more disposable incomeThe biggest savings of all would be to cut out travel and vacations. Think of it, the savings on fuel and metal and motels! if we simply took on more games at home, instead of engaging in expensive travel and expensive movie going . The entertainment /travel industry costs the U.S. billions, right? It’s ludicrous to spend that kind of money. Think of the savings: no car, no freeways, no high-rise parking lots, no parking fees, fewer highway patrolmen…And, because we’ve saved billions, we can provide all the people who’ve lost their jobs with stipends. Look at the money we’ve saved on clothes alone! If a normal middle class woman didn’t buy shoes for just one year, she could buy uniforms for at least 10 other people.Let’s see, what did I leave out? Oh, yes!! What is the first thing you see when you walk through the front doors of every major department store — everywhere? Cosmetics! 18 different kinds of lipsticks! It’s impossible to even get to the overpriced clothing without going through cosmetics! Don’t you think that ‘s excessive? Besides, everyone knows a woman is more attractive in her natural state.And, oh my, the culture class! Well, who’s going to pay for the pouty girl’s Prius when her only job is puffing on the oboe in the city symphony? But it’s not all highbrow waste is it? Just who is that happy nutcase who owns all the Madonna posters…where’s all that CD dough going that kids are extracting from permissive Boomer parents? Museums, paint and canvas, Chinese porcelain and Rigoletto siphon bucks from the swells the same as the Friday night pint takes away ours. Enough!So, away with the Hummers and the McMansions! Away, I say. It’s disgusting! Americans have way too much. Look in your closet. Because you’re overeating, you can’t even get into half the things you’ve got because you’re too fat. If you don’t overeat, a single uniform could probably suffice for the rest of your life. For those people who have to eat two sea rations, expandable uniforms!I didn’t even mention alcohol and spirits. Look at the holidays! The best thing to do is close down all the bars and whiskey merchants – that industry alone is into us for billions. Isn’t that excessive, to have a glass of wine with your sea rations? If you stop buying wine, the guys with the vineyards would go out of business, but you can subsidize them with the money you’ve saved wearing an expandable uniform.All the valuable resources saved from fashion and deli foods et al. could go to the poor, or to education, or to save the planet (God forbid it should go back to the taxpayers!)…Do we need dogs? Eliminate the dog industry! Why should we have to worry about poisoned dog food coming in from China? Euthanize the whole dog population and pocket the money. We’re talking here not only about pet hospitals, but pet cemeteries! This is extreme excess.And, hey! if you want to talk extreme excess, how about all that sports expense? France has thousands of kinds of cheese, but America has more different athletic shoes than France has cheeses. We have shoes for “walking” and shoes for “running.” And the NFL? What’s up with that? Superbowl? More like Superwaste! Think about the man-hours and the few woman-hours down the drain on that afternoon! And don’t get me started about baseball. For most of the year — can you believe it? – these guys play every day! And, for the older set, not only has golf provided every imaginable trinket, but, would you believe, it’s come out with a UroClub, the newest club for the prostrate-challenged golfer! Looks like a seven iron but holds a liter of liquid. There’s certainly savings here.The bottom line is that we’re talking excess, and you’ll always have some people trying to slip out to buy some new frock or something, so it won’t work without enforcement. You’ve got to watch out for the abusers: you’ve got to have informers. You need a number on that uniform. If you see someone out trying to barbecue steaks, and if you can’t read that uniform with your binoculars, well, you can’t serve your country, can you? Luckily, we don’t have far to look for volunteers; and we don’t need volunteers to look out for everything. We can have fashion volunteers, gourmet volunteers…Like the pigs in “Animal Farm,” volunteers who are going into enforcement need to be paid a little more for that, of course, and need additional freedoms for their jobs. And, instead of living in the barn, of course, they get to live in houses…THE LESSON: People who have suggestions for how other people should live and who say that we all have enough, obviously are saying that you and I have enough, not that they have enough. And that how we are spending our money and occupying our time, is not important, and, if possible, should be prohibited. Waste, of course, is one thing and should be eliminated at every opportunity. But judging, and then controlling, how another person uses the produce from his labor, is the beginning of government tyranny. Socialism would offer an equality of position that would soon leave no one anything to possess. IMO, this is excess.

Cute!

Having many things is quite acceptable, if you can afford them. If you use other people’s money too much of the time, living a life of Riley with a really bad debt to net worth ratio, and you get in a position where you can’t pay it back, you are a minus sign in the GDP records. You literally SUCK things OUT of the economy. You reduced someone else’s wealth. You SUCK.I don’t care to pay taxes to support people that SUCK.

And, perhaps, just perhaps, we need a little revolution, just to clear the air, just so we can breathe a little freedom again.

LOL!

???

I have bought SDS at 87 and still hold it. I expect the S&P to continue down further. Then, I’ll sell and go the other way!

Attention US Congress:cc Ben and HankTaiwan Government to give all citizens a $101 shopping voucher. Taiwan to offer vouchers – November 19

For a (T minus 1 second) I thought you were one dangerous guest. I agree with you that trying to erase differences and diversity in “nature” is a toxic dream.The “rule”, according to me, is simple; people, in general, ought to not have the “possibility” to live on the fruit of the work of someone else, without his/her will or knowledge, no matter who is that someone (aka social justice). That is quite different from; all people should live within their means. And even light years from what you described.In general: because not all people should/can comply, for different reasons, the important thing is that the social tissue is balanced.Ought to: where are the cops?Not have the possibility: because if the system, by design, allows people, by altering their culture and norms, to exploit/benefit from that, they would (cheap unregulated debt-based consumption).without his/her will or knowledge: there is no problem if the someone give up his/her right to consume/call back if she is consent – kids do itno matter who is that someone: another compatriot, a foreigner, or 2 generations from now.

liberals who … hate freedom

hmmm…I thought it was communists who hated freedom, not “liberals”.Which by the way brings me to the issue of how in America people seem to call nearly anyone they do not agree with a “liberal”. Thus you could even end up with the oxymoronic expression of referring to those “liberal communists”:-)I guess the point is about what is the politician(s) liberal about?Traditionally liberal of course was the opposite of “conservative” (someone who wanted to conserve the current order of things). That would make liberal someone who would like to change the current order of things.

Since this current market has been in the tank (about last 1.5 years) SPY has almost always been below 200DMA. The rule would have saved you from bad losses. On top of that, instead of sitting in cash during this time period, had you been in the inverse SH or SDS for that same time except for about 3 or 4 months (while SDS was below its 200 DMA) you would have done great. Try any SPY or SH stock chart 3 months or more on yahoo and then overlap the 200DMA except for some few short periods you gain.

One way or another deflation must occur that can happen through creditors forgiving debt or through foreclosure or bankruptcy. It can also happen through creative ways as you suggest as long as the net result is in fact a loss of value. The creditor or borrower has to take a loss period how that happens is now the great debate.

That’s the story. US corporations sitting on mountains of cash will spend us out of recession. They will be our saviors. But wait, CEOs say they need bailing too. Hmm who to believe-bullish media or greedy corporate giants??? I’ll take door # 3.

The Smart Money (who perhaps now should be downgraded to only Above Average Money) is getting into the S&P the only guaranteed good day left this week before everyone else piles into cover their shorts. Also Budweiser is gone from S&P (sold overseas with the rest of America) so they had to find a replacement. The mantra now is raise short term cash for next week when its all going down in the great death spiral. Roubini’s crystal ball (I got it on Sale and SKS) tells me next Monday and all of next week we’re heading toward the big one. Call it Smackdown-O-Rama… Not only will it be post-options expiration, almost always a bad week but also U.S.A. Thanksgiving and folks aren’t going to want to be long in stocks for the holiday (as if we’ll have anything to be thankful for other than the week being over). Then the Friday after Thanksgiving in the US -Black Friday when everyone goes holiday shopping at midnight and retailers offer all kinds of crazy deals will disappoint. Last year was bad. This year it will be crushing.Brace yourselves people. They cannot keep Christmas from coming but they can reposes Rudolph and the Christmas Escalade (I mean Sleigh) and keep your Santa Rally at bay…

That almost sounds a bit like the gamber’s fallacy.Assuming that someone who has made money in the market will continue to make money is a bit like betting that the next coin flip will come up tails simply because the previous 10 coin flips have come up tails.However, even that analogy isn’t very accurate. The gambler’s fallacy is based upon a fair coin being tossed. Obviously, a billionaire has options and capabilities that few of us have available when playing the markets. The billionaire’s coin is loaded in his/her favor.

Thanks, JTB!

Most of the Suckers suck because they had too little to start with. Generally you don’t just go out and get in debt from rabid overconsumption. Read the NYT article today on veterans coming back here and their economic woes. Go to war, get bonked on the head, your wife quits her job to help you and you wait a year to get disability payments, return to your tiny little community without economic opportunity for your high school educated self which is why you entered the military in the first place, try to get a job, end up with your house under water delivering pizza and your savings all gone etc…Its not a pretty picture and I’d gladly pay for people who were busy saving my ass.Also credit card default is most likely for young and for people who total monthly payment is unmanageable. We changed the rules this past year on everyone. When I was a grad student I had multiple cards maxed out and still had really low payments. Sure I was never going to get them paid off (OK I did with a HELOC in the good old days) but I was in no danger of becoming a SUCKER because I met my monthly obligations. Plenty of people start businesses that way and its risky but debt used responsibly has the potential to add to the economy. Its when the rules change after the fact and/or things come along like illness, divorce or death that the vulnerable really get screwed…Maybe I’m just a big softie but I even feel a bit bad for GM. Why do we need these giant vehicles that get crap mileage? Because if you have 2 kids and they have 1 friend you need a third row of seating so the kids legally can ride in the car. Maybe they should have seen the peak oil handwriting on the wall but was it really peak oil or was it speculators with bubble money riding the next bubble up up up and screwing the whole economy into a recession. Was it GM’s fault nobody could get credit to buy vehicles??? They with their 0% financing were the big heros in this country after 9-11 that got everything moving. Personally I ADORE my husband’s Suburban and HATE my Honda Element. The Suburban holds up to all kinds of abuse. The damn Element has cost me and our insurance policy $6000.00 since it was purchased in repairs from minor dings and its only 1 year old and has paint peeling.Sorry for the diatribe but I get sick of folks blaming the victims…

Buffet buys highly diversified preferred. Joe6Pack buys highly undiversified common. There’s a big difference. Preferred is probably a much better deal but common? Not so much. Not to mention that picking a few stocks here and there out of the thousands available is like finding a needle in a haystack and you have to limit yourself to just a few and jump in all at once if you want to avoid fees. Plus all the household names have already made their moves…Joe6Pack’s only hope is to buy funds and not get too greedy. I know. I’m Joe.

I really adored the lets not pay social security taxes for a year idea (not my idea-someone mentioned it on NPR but I missed his name). That would give us ALL a break, give states more income to tax so maybe they wouldn’t go under and would have a way to pay unemployment for those who will need it. And the “responsible” people could feel like they were getting something other than ripped off and anyone with debt could use it to pay it down.Not sure how much money we’re talking there or what that would do to current social security payments but since social security is broken anyway maybe it could just be broke a year earlier…

Disagreement: I don’t think 1 in 5 people underwater on their house will walk away. I think NR is under estimating the determination and pride of the consumer, we aren’t Wall Street! I do agree that his estimates as to how many will be under water is true, but it doesn’t mean they would jump ship. I put 20% down on my house in 04, I still have equity. But if things became depressed further, and I didn’t, I wouldn’t go anywhere. Where would I go and how would I get a loan? If his predictions do come true, then we should be buying up Real Estate funds like its the last loaf of bread in town, because they will be full of tenants who can’t get a home loan. why do you think credit card debt is so high, because will go thru all cost to stay in their home. So why would that change, unless they financially can’t afford which is a different subject and not what Nouriel is referring to. He is simply saying if people get wind they owe more then the current price, they will walk. No way, not just to walk. I would think more like 2-5% might walk, and maybe 10% can’t afford and can’t work with their banks. So what does the losses look like with 5-10% foreclosure?

Living sustainably doesn’t require communism and government tyranny. It simply means using resources wisely and living within our financial means. We can do this by making wise decisions as individuals, not by government decree. You still have the right to live a selfishly materialistic lifestyle, but if most of us continue to live that way then I believe we threaten our very existence, both as a nation and as a species.Who survives the winter, the grasshopper who enjoys its freedom to the fullest in the moment, or the ant who works hard to save food for the future? Is the ant foolish to limit its freedom by working more to prepare for the future? Or is it really expanding its freedom by enabling it to survive long after the grasshopper has died?Where is the grasshopper’s freedom when it no longer has the resources to survive in winter? It has no freedom then; it has no choice but to die.IMO, we have been living like grasshoppers in this country for too long, and now winter is approaching: it is time we begin to live more wisely.

Buying SDS while above the 200 MA or Buying SPY when above the 200 MA is the same decision. On paper, it works perfectly – but to execute it, on the long run, it is not necessarily that “outperforming”. You would have missed most of the gains. Remember that when it is still at the making, a turning point is not clearly that recognizable – it could easily be a “false” signal.If you started this strategy with the SPY, since 1993 – going long SPY whenever its MA crosses from below and short whenever MA crosses from above – by automatically executing a trade at the price of the next day whenever the closing price of the previous day crosses the MA, you would have realized a return of 221.56% – against a buy-and-hold return, over the same period of ~90%.OK, you win. However, the thing with this specific data set is that it works very fine whenever a trend is very clear like during the bull market of 98 and the bear of 08-XX where it yields 2 outsized gains. During the rest, the strategy loses more than it gains. I am sure that if you try it on longer horizons it will come out flat with the market – assuming that you don’t know a sever bear or roaring bull market is coming.

There was an update to this blurb–the Japanese voters don’t want the money. Found it on Mish’s blog. How d’ya like them apples?

To sve GM is a big joke in the huamn history.

rules of the old capitalist are brokengain is now lostbankrupt is now on-going concernco’s that should have been liquidated are now a must feed capital intravenous patientbad news is now good news while good news is great newsnormally investors trade for the full day now we only see “actions” in the final houryou know what,our whole life existence was a farce and jokeafter all of this, can we return back to our normal lives???i dont think so

So do I, Guest-o-Rama, so do I. And wonder why they do. Those who exploit the people for profit, such as those now blaming families for buying a home during the seven years of a deliberate, Fed-blown housing bubble, i.e. Greenspan’s exuberance, or for driving an SUV at the moment of a deliberate oil heist by the Exxon and Wall Street commodity monopoly robbing the people of billions and impoverishing many, blame us for what they do.What’s even more amazing are the people who buy into their lies.

Let’s see… vigilance and freedom and prosperity, or apathy and bondage and poverty. Hmmm… I give up; I can’t decide.That is a false choice. We already have all those things in varying proportions now. And no one in their right mind would choose more apathy, bondage, and poverty.What we need to do now is figure out how to best preserve the freedom, and prosperity we have enjoyed without destroying our economy through bankruptcy, and without defiling the planet beyond use in the process.

Grasshoppers do not have a high standard of living: ants do. In that Americans have a high standard of living, Americans are ants, not grasshoppers. If the majority of Americans were grasshoppers, there would be no America as we know it. America would be passe, a Zimbabwe, a scorched earth with abject poverty. America’s corn harvest feeds 40% of mankind – every year. Somebody has to produce America’s cornucopia: that somebody is the American people — the growers, shippers, packers, processors, marketers, retailers, researchers, developers, innovators, miners, craftsmen, engineers… If there are grasshoppers in this society, it’s the investment bankers and the able bodied non producers who live off the state itself. Neither group could feed if it weren’t for the hard working, i.e. the producers, i.e. the ants, i.e. the majority.You ask, “Is the ant foolish to limit its freedom by working more to prepare for the future? Or is it expanding its freedom by enabling it to survive?” How you and I do differ. I ask you, How does survival expand freedom? I consider the right to work as freedom: I consider the right to use my God-given talents as freedom. I consider the right to keep and eat what I produce as freedom, I consider the right to determine, within limits, my own destiny as freedom, I consider the right to brotherhood as freedom, and I consider life and freedom as a right. I do not consider survival a “right.”By your words, people should limit their desires and the ambitions that birth the miracle of production so as to “preserve” the resources of production else all starve and freeze and DIE in the winter, like profligate GRASSHOPPERS who rape the harvests of others — as if most resources aren’t renewable, developable, expandable and sustainable, and as if most Americans are bottom feeders. And if we don’t desist, someone should do it for us. IOW, the government should step in and limit us, so we can be free.If winter is approaching in this country, as you say, then let those living the life of a grasshopper suffer the consequences — i.e., the parasitic bankers and the able-bodied government hangers on: and let the ant survive to enjoy the fruits of his labors. Let “survival,” as you say, be the determinant of who is the “grasshopper” and who the “ant,” not the state.Else it soon will be “Brother, can you spare a dime?” for all of us.

Roubini says that the downturn will be more severe and last two years. From my reading of his comments, I think he says that the recession began in Spring ‘o8. If so, that means the recovery begins sometime in Spring ’10. Do others agree?

hmmm…at this point it looks like the downhill will escalate after christmas, at least slightly. After that we can have an continued downhill until at least Q4 2009. Depending on what Obama+rest of the planet does, recovery could start 2010…Of course something being possible in my imagination does not mean it is actually possible in reality…what I mean is: what can they actually do to mend the situation?Also, if US has two consequtive quarters of growth, it does not mean good times are back BECAUSE the downhill has been going on for about a year or more now (actually houseprices started going down back in 2006) at a specific rate (speed). If it was possible to rebuild the economy back to the pre-recession era, it would take the same length of time to the other direction (given the same rate of development)

Answer: Since the key component of growth is in decline: oil. Unlike the other events this IS _THE_ big one: no other concentration of energy/power/wealth exists.

Of cours, the economic contraction will be severe. That is beyond any doubt as debt and borrowing are going to play a fraction of the part they previously paid in the old US economy. What I think is of even more concern will be the period after this economic decline. Hopes for an economic rebound are likely to be shredded by the new reality of a much smaller US economy. Years and years of hardship lie ahead for the US people as their economy restructures to a vastly new dynamic where debt is strictly regulated. This is going to become quite a shock to most US citizens.

what is MOS? Mosaic? I don’t understand this. SLV, and USO, no problem. I agree. MOS? was this a typo?

Why do we need hybrid cars? I used to drive a 1986 Honda Civic Hatchback 1.3l engine which gave me over 40 miles/gallon. Granted, it is not a car for a family of 5 going on a long trip. But for daily commuting it should be fine. How many SUVs with a single person in it do you see in your morning commute?

OR, I measure not mpg, but pmpg: people miles per gallon. A Hummer fully loaded beats a Prius with only one person in it! It’s how the tool is used that counts!You’ve got me beat, however, I’ve got a 1990 Toyota Corolla and only average about 33 – 34 mpg. This is still better than just about all other “fuel efficient” cars produced today.My work commuter does much much better- it’s a bicycle!Better to run these things into the ground given all the embodied energy in them.

Perfectly said. The oligarch’s in this country have us blaming each other while they’re looting our system. The white collar have class envy of the oligarch and believe if they subscribe to they’re beliefs they’ll too someday be an oligarch too (emporers has no clothes) so they do and take it out on the uneducated worker. Enough people have made a good amount of money with 401k’s and stocks that they’re deluded into believing even after the crash that this is how a real economy works (A real ponzi scheme that is). We need to wake up quickly and see our true enemy and stop blaming each other, that enemy is the mega corporations the oligarchy and their beholden politicians. If you don’t believe class war fare is and has been taking place you are simply under the medias and oligarchy’s spell.

Link to Feldstein’s Site at NBER.org

If you want to invest like Buffet, buy Berkshire. Forget trying to emulate his stock picks. He doesn’t buy on the same terms as the rest of us as has been pointed out here.

RGE BrainTrust Conference Call AnnouncementCall starts at 09:00AM U.S.EST.Organizational Design meeting.What’s our mission, how do we set strategy and sub-groups?We’ll hear from some of the RGE regulars as they explain their vision for what the BrainTrust should do.OuterBeltway gives a presentation a powerful toolset the BrainTrust could use to achieve its goals.The first 96 people to call in…are in.The phone number: 218.339.4300Access code: 882086# (don’t forget the pound sign)

Roubini on Bloomberg

@ OR:Thanks for the advice many months ago about a little civil judgement I had. I paid it off last month and am happy i did! I’ve only got my main home mortgage now and it’s at 55% LTV. I plan to pay it off within 1-2 years. Then, I have no debt. Trying to prepare for what I think it coming. Again. Thanks……Randy

If this was in response to my comment above, I don’t think they’re going to save it-at least not before Obama gets in office and then maybe they’ll be out of $ and in bankruptcy. But they do have provisions in this country for renegotiating contracts. Maybe GM would be profitable without having so many dealers and the UAW and healthcare obligations for retirees.Then again maybe China is going to start making really awesome $5000.00 cars in the next few years and we’ll be right back to where we were with the US unable to compete.My comment above was to say that why can’t people holding the CDOs or banks holding the CDOs go into bankruptcy and restructure. Sure it will suck for their creditors but that’s how business works. All the airlines did it. The auto industry is probably about to do it. I just don’t see why the banks can’t. Depositors get their money first and then creditors get a workaround or an offer of some cents on the dollar or they just get screwed. Ultimately if a person can’t pay they can’t pay. There are no workhouses they can go to work off the debt. Ditto for corporations.

If we don’t mind the pollution we don’t “need” hybrid cars. Hybrid cars sell at a premium and until gas was $4.00 a gallon it only made sense for people with really long commutes to pay $10,000 extra to get the technology. But the family car people really need because little kids have to be in car seats. And most people don’t have the luxury of a family car plus 2 commuters. And most families contain 2 people who commute to different places. Mom drops the kids and drives the empty minivan to work and then dad picks up a kid in his SUV and goes to soccer and mom picks up another kid and goes to music lessons. Everyone who drives a kid has to have car seats and they have to be in the back effectively making a 4 seat vehicle minimum necessary. If the kid has friends you have to have 3 rows…

Looking for a site that publishes notices of layoffs in US.I seem to recall such a site, and I think that I actually bookmarked it but am unable to find it

We just concluded a very, very productive meeting. We’ll be publishing the meeting transcript sometime in the next day or so.Miss Italy – I am remiss for not inviting you to make an announcement (per your remarks to MA) during this meeting. I will remember to do so next time.For those of you that would like your own copy of the meeting minutes, I invite you to drop me a line at outerbeltway at yahoo dot com , with subject line “Transcript Request”.

it is Mosaic

Outerbeltway e al:Thank you for alowing me time during this call to express my opinions. I am humbled to be a part of this group and will do whatever I can to help this effort succeed.Randy

Stocks goin for a rocket ride in T minus 2 minutes…

The two are inversely proportionate as major technological benefits eliminate the need for human capital as has been happening those productive gains have to be transferred somewhere so far they are going to the top 1%. If this trend continues we will see a middle-class revolution, or an extermination of people either or but chaos should ensue.

How is Soc Sec broken? That’s a mime started by Bush and repeated by the Right Wing Chorus (RWC) in order for Wall Street to get ahold of that money to plow into its schemes. It is funded for 40 years and beyond that simply by raising the $100,000 ceiling it could be funded indefinately. That’s a nonsensical thing to say in light of all the things that are broken.

Comfortably, the news post is during truthfulness a hottest on this subject well known subject matter. I agree with ones conclusions and often will desperately look ahead to your updaters. Saying thanks a lot will not just be sufficient, for ones wonderful ability in your producing. I will immediately grab ones own feed to stay knowledgeable from any sort of update versions. Amazing get the done and much success with yourbusiness results!

Attractive area of interest. Waiting to uncover more about this.

Oh my goodness! an incredible article dude. Thank you Nevertheless I’m experiencing situation with ur rss . Don’t know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there anybody getting similar rss drawback? Anyone who knows kindly respond. Thnkx

Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive learn something like this before. So nice to search out any person with some unique thoughts on this subject. realy thank you for beginning this up. this website is something that is needed on the web, somebody with a little originality. useful job for bringing something new to the internet!

An fascinating discussion is value comment. I think that it is best to write extra on this matter, it won’t be a taboo topic however generally people are not enough to talk on such topics. To the next. Cheers

I was very pleased to search out this net-site.I needed to thanks for your time for this excellent learn!! I definitely having fun with every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to take a look at new stuff you blog post.

I simply wanted to post a quick remark so as to express gratitude to you for these splendid solutions you are sharing on this site. My time-consuming internet look up has at the end of the day been rewarded with extremely good facts and techniques to share with my two friends. I ‘d express that most of us site visitors are extremely blessed to live in a good community with many lovely individuals with very beneficial tactics. I feel rather blessed to have discovered your entire site and look forward to tons of more amazing minutes reading here. Thanks again for a lot of things.

Have you already setup a fan page on Facebook ?;~,~*

I just added your RSS Feed on my RSS reader, it is so nice to read your blog.:.~’.

I just added your RSS Feed on my RSS reader, it is so nice to read your blog.“”~`

I really love the way you discuss this kind of topic.*~*”-

Hi there, a very good read and it sometimes just takes someone to post something like this to make me realise where I’ve been going wrong! Just added the site to my bookmarks so will check back now and then. Cheers.

Only a few blogger would discuss this topic the way you do.:,;”`

Sometimes, blogging is a bit tiresome specially if you need to update more topics…,’:

Man that was very entertaining and at the same time informative.~~”`~

I think your blog is getting more and more visitors.’”"*;

Isn’t it entertaining if we always talk about topics like that.`*~-~

I just put the link of your blog on my Facebook Wall. very nice blog indeed.;-:’-

Your blog never ceases to amaze me, it is very well written and organized.–*.,

I’m a blog crazed person and i love to read cool blog like yours.’~”‘:

I just love to read new topics from you blog.*..*”

I always visit your blog everyday to read new topics.-:”`;

The way you write, you are really a professional blogger.”-.`-

Hiya, I’m really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossips and web and this is really annoying. A good web site with interesting content, this is what I need. Thank you for keeping this web-site, I’ll be visiting it. Do you do newsletters? Cant find it.

I love blogging and i can say that you also love blogging.*`;.’

Your blog is one of a kind, i love the way you organize the topics.*.”`~

Sometimes, blogging is a bit tiresome specially if you need to update more topics.-.~,:

Sometimes, blogging is a bit tiresome specially if you need to update more topics.*:`*;

As I web site possessor I believe the content matter here is rattling magnificent , appreciate it for your efforts. You should keep it up forever! Good Luck.

Only a few blogger would discuss this topic the way you do.”~-;`

Your blog is one of a kind, i love the way you organize the topics..*-’.

The thing i like about your blog is that you always post direct to the point info.-,.;’

I will invite all my friends to your blog, you really got a great blog.,`.*-

I just added your RSS Feed on my RSS reader, it is so nice to read your blog.”*;,*

I love blogging and i can say that you also love blogging.,*”:`

In total, it took me approximately 30 minutes to discover this great post. Thanks.

thank you good ankara vip oto seo uou

Birçok rent a car firmasının yer aldığı ankarada araç kiralama oldukça zor olmasına rağmen kalitesinden ödün vermeyen rent a car firmaları da bulunmaktadır.