You first. The profesor was hardly first… This pictury was in The Economist long ago.

Thanks Nouriel!Now I understand the markets perfectly!

Too funny! I’ve been told even dead cats bounce on occasion…

The professor has a sense of humor. Who said economists were dismal?

EX-SELL-AIN’T THATS THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT. COULD NOT HAVE SAID IT BETTER!

Wife: Honey, why was the stock market up so much today? Was the news good?Husband: Well, here take a look.Jobless Rolls in U.S. Rise to 25-Year High, Exports Plunge on Global SlumpForeclosure rates up 25 percent year-over-year Thu Nov 13, 8:12 AM ETOECD says developed world already in recession Thu Nov 13, 1:13 PM ETUS Steel lays off 677 workers in US, Canada 43 minutes agoPITTSBURGH – United States Steel Corp. said Thursday it is laying off 677 workers in the United States and Canada because of lower demand for steel amid the economic downturn.Jobless claims surge while trade deficit narrows Thu Nov 13, 2:06 PM ETWASHINGTON – Applications for unemployment benefits soared to the highest level since just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks while the trade deficit shrank more than expected as demand for imports plunged, further evidence of the struggling U.S. economy.Bad economy puts post office $2.8 billion in red Thu Nov 13, 11:59 AM ETWASHINGTON – The ailing economy caused a big drop in mail, leaving the post office $2.8 billion in the red.Bush: Intervention not “cure-all” for crisis Thu Nov 13, 11:57 AM ETLas Vegas Sands to fire up to 11,000 Macau workers Thu Nov 13, 8:49 AM ETWife: So that’s why the stock market went up 6%?Husband: Sure. That’s the way it works; you gotta be a contrarian. When things are the worst that’s when you gotta buy. So I think we should buy stocks again right away. This must be the bottom.Wife: But how do we know this is the worst? Didn’t Soros say just today that a deep recession was inevitable? Inevitable means it’s still coming, not that it already here; doesn’t it? And didn’t he say a depression was possible?Husband: What does he know; he’s too old now and probably has dementia.We got to get in now while stocks are cheap! If we wait we will be priced out of the market in no time! Just like when we tried to buy the house in 2005 and got outbid. You gotta act fast in these markets to make money!Wife: But what about Roubini?Husband: Well he can’t be right all the time. And I think he is finally wrong now.Wife: I don’t know. It looked like a buying panic today to me. And that means it was driven by greed. I don’t think it will be the real bottom until all the greed has turned into despair and utter revulsion of the stock market. Then I will be ready to buy again.Husband: Oh that’s so 20th Century! Things happen faster now! I’m tellin ya, this is it. If we don’t get in now were gonna miss the big money!

Do you think the rest of us thought he drew it???

Long ICEout of everything else until I see which way she’s going tomorrow.Going into SF for dinner tonight w/wifey.gonna drink a toast to the professor.gotta be cool like the professor.GLTA

Good one, KJ!I think there’s a potential Broadway play or musical in there somewhere!

Real reason is there’s too many people out there who have made a living in the stock market business who know nothing else and will continue to do the only thing they know until completely stopped out.

Honestly, though, I actually am curious as to what the real reasons were for the markets going up today.Wouldn’t it be great if everyone who bought/sold stocks had to fill out little online comment cards explaining why they did what they did?That way, instead of hearing vague evening financial news announcements that “the markets went up today because everyone was happy” — we could hear more specific details like “the markets went up today due in large part to increased use of narcotics by day traders” — or something like that.

With a name like Wiseguy, how can we refuse?Of course you’re welcome, and thanks for asking. Don’t forget to post your desired agenda bullet-points, and best time/day of week.All readers, please remember: the objective here is INCLUSION. If I didn’t call out your name, it’s my oversight, and I ask you to join us.I’d like to make your acquaintance.

economicminor: “This means there are fewer sellers, not a lot of buyers but fewer sellers.”This doesn’t make sense (but I hear a lot): every share has exactly one seller and one buyer.Volume is a measure of how strong is the disagreement on prices between buyers and sellers. High volume means that prices attract a lot of buyer and a lot of sellers because they disagree strongly on the valuation. One of the two population will be wrong, but you don’t know which one.

It’s a sucker’s rally ! We are in for doom and gloom for all of 2009. That’s not pessimism, that’s just ugly fact, unfortunately. Roubini, you rule you cute Son of a Bitch !

Regarding today’s rally (and similar ones in the past few weeks), Bill Bucker explained best, a true market pro. This was written in late July, and Bill predicted all these bailouts and their dire consequences.”The US stock and bond markets would go into free fall with huge and sudden rallies interrupting the general decline in prices. When the dust finally cleared, the US would be bankrupt and would be SEEN to be bankrupt.”Global financial stocks have led declines that have wiped about $US 11 TRILLION from world equity markets worldwide so far this year. This is immensely deflationary. As of the end of June, those who are still holding this paper can sell it today for $US 11 TRILLION less than they could late last year. If they were to sell now, their purchasing power or investment power would be less by this huge amount. Again, scaling it to size, this is like removing about three quarters of the entire US economy.The Descending US Staircase:The line of the descent now goes from the two US GSEs to the US Treasury and finally to the US Dollar.Should the very threadbare “confidence” which still remains in the two US GSEs crack further – one potential cause could be the rescue plan being seen as too little too late – the entire problem would arrive on the steps of the US Treasury. A bailout would require a MASSIVE increase in the Treasury’s debt ceiling which takes an act of Congress. It would be necessary to push the “ceiling” well above $US 10 TRILLION, which would badly rattle both domestic confidence in the viability of their government’s debt and global confidence in the USA itself. If the rest of the world’s confidence cracked badly – and it is already waning fast – it would be the international value of the US Dollar which would feel the global impact first. Many foreign holders of US Dollars would start selling them for other currencies, driving many others including central banks to do the same, simply to get something for their US Dollar holdings. If control is lost here, the result could be a global event in which the global value of the US Dollar is destroyed inside a week. Further, very early on in any global US Dollar sell-off, present international holders of US financial paper of all kinds – stocks, Treasury and Agency debt, commercial bonds and all the rest – would start selling as a precursor to selling the US Dollars gained this way. The US stock and bond markets would go into free fall with huge and sudden rallies interrupting the general decline in prices. When the dust finally cleared, the US would be bankrupt and would be SEEN to be bankrupt.The USA Is Out Of Options:The central thing to understand is that the US has no place to go and no place to turn to. A huge US debt write-down is already just over the horizon. Desperate actions like currency controls are likely ahead.

Professor, dat was a cool post! This one is from the end of the previous thread:My comment to MA in his blog. I think his post was a very good one!MA hope this is the kind of post you are looking for…Question #3 If a mirror reverses your right from your left and your left from your right, why doesn’t it also reverse up and down?A lens reverses the image on the other side of the lens left and right AND up and down because the light changes direction as it passes through the lens. A mirror actually does not reverse anything just reflects the light. Whereas our definitions of up and down are absolute, the definition of left and right depends on the direction we are facing. Your right side seems to be in the left side “inside” the mirror because you mentally are positioning yourself inside the mirror taking a mental 180o turn which is impossible because you will never be inside a mirror:-) But wait! what happens if you place the mirror in the ceiling and then look up?:-)Where is the money going?Certainly the flow towards banks holding mortgages will be lower than anticipated and banks in the business of selling cc debt such as amex will get more money than anticipated due to Hanks sudden change in strategy.BTW, Hanks 700 billion ripoff of the Amerikan public (700 truckloads of gold carrying 40.5 metric tons of gold each) belongs to the guinness records as the greatest heist in the history of mankind! Hanky is a clever guy! He made an excellent “chess” move:He knew the US economy would go down the drain with or without the 700 billion so congress only had one way out: approve the plan BEFORE the election.Since the economy would go down the drain with or without the 700 billion; if congress didn’t approve the 700 billion, in the future [and with the benefit of knowing what happened] people could say it was their fault the economy went down the tubes as the 700 billion might have saved it, or at the very least soften the recession (error of omission). However, by aproving the plan congressmen can always say they tried their best and that it would have been worse without the plan.So hanky got what he wanted: a big wad of cash BEFORE the election, which as you all can see, he is “wasting” freely among his friends. he only has until January to waste it all so he is devising the fastest ways to give it away to his friends. The mortgage buy back plan would have taken too long as the toxic stuff is impossible to price.A very reasonable 1% commission easily makes Hank a billionaire if he is not one already:-)Hank may not literally get 1% of the money but it buys him influence which is worth $$$$. Corruption in the US is more subtle. In the underdeveloped world, they take the money directly from the treasury. In the US, the politicians are businessmen (think Bush Cheney). They use their political power to move the $$$ towards their businesses (think Halliburton) It is a kind of money laundering that is difficult prosecute in a court of law.Don’t get fooled by the Stuttering, Hank is smarter than all of us put together!

RE: RGE Braintrust Conference CallOB, we need Gloomy too. Can anybody find him?We need Octavio, Alessandro, Miss Italy, Wild Bill, KJ Foehr, K in Tx, David in Seattle, tutterfrut, Capone, softwareengineer, economicminor.And where is Mother of God these days?All you thoughtful folks, we need you. Please come join.

Preferrably after 5:30 PM PST (8:30 EST) Any day of the week.

Its very tricky to make money on every wiggle in the markets. Some would call it impossible. My view, short the market and hold on for dear life. As Nouriel’s analysis has indicated, this is the equivalent of a financial Category 5 hurricane. Its difficult to predict which companies will survive and which companies will be destroyed. So why bother. If you are not short, you should be out of the market altogeather. Only when the storm is over will you know which companies are worthwhile to own stocks in.

Isn’t it common for stocks to rise in anticipation of increased “earnings” due to cuts in the workforce?

Volume was low today.Volatility was high though.I guess with such low volume, prices are sort of random. Profits go to those who can exploit the supply-and-demand dynamics in real time.

Wow, Guest too accepted the invitation and will be there? How can I refuse after that? Where is Anonymous, BTW?More seriously, I wish I could, but not sure it will be practical with my sporadic work time from Montreal. Well, anyway, fix a time, and I’ll see if I can make it.Although I would prefer approaching things from a transversal point of view. Before the how, I’d like to know where actions, taken on the micro level, need to take us? Need a vision first, then a strategy, then we can talk about operations.

Yes, if I’m to go long, I’ll be looking forward to a 100% unemployment rate.

I think the Professor’s mom would resent that comment.

I have an existential question that is hunting me. We call it a sucker rally because the ones who fuel it are suckers or because it sucks in buyers? Or maybe because it sucks suckers in?

KaBoom! Prepare For Mass Layoffs

a parade of corporate chief executives have told him huge layoffs are planned around the city and will carry into next year.

OR:Conference call – you’re invited. Please log your bullet points and best t-o-d and d-of-week.

Next we’ll be getting ice building up on our wings! SWK

More homework! Another must read!http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/11/13/obama-s-challenge.aspxJust a bit…Embedded in his tremendous victory is a single weakness: Obama won the popular vote by a fairly narrow margin, about 52 percent of the vote. That means that almost as many people voted against him as voted for him.Obama’s Agenda vs. Expanding His BaseU.S. President George W. Bush demonstrated that the inability to understand the uses and limits of power can crush a presidency very quickly. The enormous enthusiasm of Obama’s followers could conceal how he — like Bush — is governing a deeply, and nearly evenly, divided country. Obama’s first test will be simple: Can he maintain the devotion of his followers while increasing his political base? Or will he believe, as Bush and Cheney did, that he can govern without concern for the other half of the country because he controls the presidency and Congress, as Bush and Cheney did in 2001? Presidents are elected by electoral votes, but they govern through public support.Obama and his supporters will say there is no danger of a repeat of Bush — who believed he could carry out his agenda and build his political base at the same time, but couldn’t. Building a political base requires modifying one’s agenda. But when you start modifying your agenda, when you become pragmatic, you start to lose your supporters. If Obama had won with 60 percent of the popular vote, this would not be as pressing a question. But he barely won by more than Bush in 2004. Now, we will find out if Obama is as skillful a president as he was a candidate.Obama will soon face the problem of beginning to disappoint people all over the world, a problem built into his job. The first disappointments will be minor. There are thousands of people hoping for appointments, some to Cabinet positions, others to the White House, others to federal agencies. Many will get something, but few will get as much as they hoped for. Some will feel betrayed and become bitter. During the transition process, the disappointed office seeker — an institution in American politics — will start leaking on background to whatever reporters are available. This will strike a small, discordant note; creating no serious problems, but serving as a harbinger of things to come.Later, Obama will be sworn in. He will give a memorable, perhaps historic speech at his inauguration. There will be great expectations about him in the country and around the world. He will enjoy the traditional presidential honeymoon, during which all but his bitterest enemies will give him the benefit of the doubt. The press initially will adore him, but will begin writing stories about all the positions he hasn’t filled, the mistakes he made in the vetting process and so on. And then, sometime in March or April, things will get interesting….

Hubbs, please consider joining above-referenced conference call.SWK, you too, even if you just lurk.

That cartoon says it all when you have mindless programs in charge of the world’s markets. The world has truly lost any sense of rationality and is merely impulse trading to patterns, thresholds, break points, pivots much like an insect’s knee jerk response to light stimulus. Insanity, pure utter uncontrollable knew jerk mindless insanity. Nobody is thinking anymore.

i aaallmmooosst lost my faith in MSMat least they reported the buying was done in the final houranyway, currently US futes is red, imagine the bull’s nerves right now”shhhoott i shoudnt have bought these shares, tomorrow is Friday”excerpt;U.S. stocks rallied the most in two weeks, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumping 6 percent in the final hourU.S. Stocks Surge, Led by Shares of Energy, Real-Estate FirmsBy Elizabeth StantonNov. 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rallied the most in two weeks, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumping 6 percent in the final hour, as investors snapped up the cheapest energy shares on record and real-estate companies gained after CB Richard Ellis Inc. raised cash in a share sale.Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. led gains in all 40 energy producers in the S&P 500 and helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebound from a 317-point drop. CB Richard Ellis, the world’s largest provider of commercial real-estate services, surged 43 percent for its steepest advance since going public in 2004.

Ackman – as smooth and as slick as the come – a master communicator or should I say a caricature of a master communicator. Whatever he could express it better than I.

the things is investors/traders are trying to rationalize the irrationalsthese mkt movements arent based on fundamentals, maybe elliot wave is the best “measuring stick” but i think there is still a flaw,it assumes on reaction/behaviour of normal humans pyschology/emotionswell i tell you, those big big players have no emotionsthere are Borgs

Brilliant idea – count me in (if I’m available) – but we need to find SGG who’s gone AWOL

i just lost the longest post ever aye argh ….great cartoon post Professor! crazy day today folks

I am a layman, rare poster, daily reader. I’d love to listen in. I am EST and will adapt to whatever time/day you come up with. Thanks OB.

I think the post if funny. It’s good to see that the Prof has a sense of humor.On the flip side, I think the fact that this cartoon is even being posted, regarding today’s activities, is very telling. People have mentioned bargain hunting and finding a bottom. But, the reality is that what happened today was just plain irrational. It’s days like these that breathe life into PPT theories.PUBLISH M3!!!!!!!!!Good Night

Sign me up, but I will dial in via Skype-Out to keep costs under control. Also, I will participate anonymously for the usual reasons.

Am busy that evening.Sorry.

David,I like your emphasis on the idea that the US will be out of money and BE SEEN to be out of money. This is a restoration of a kind of Hegelian basis to economics where the drama of mutual recognition is what matters. It is interesting to note the confluence of ignorance of Hegel in modern criticism, which looks to misprison and misreading and in the markets, which looked to misrepresentation as a similar kind of productive apparatus. Personally I feel this is the ultimate Hegelian moment of a kind of totalizing spirit, wherein the recognition is so blatant and there is this amazing amount of information pointing in one direction. Unfortunately the historical constellation in which we were fated to be born may not fare so well from this, but I cannot help but see the inescapability of the Hegelian paradigm as more exciting. If I can ask a question to others in my first comment here: is anyone else as guiltily excited as I am, not about the real human suffering that saddens all of us, but rather about the tremendous plotline and its impending crescendo which David has so usefully and hopefully inaccurately foreshadowed?

It is a fallacy to say that there is a strong disagreement on valuation when two people trade. Time and volume are two very important components. I may agree that fundamentals should result in a higher share price at some point in time, but in the very near term technical behavior may cause me to sell the stock short with the expectation of covering at a lower price. A buyer, on the other hand, may have a time horizon of many years and thus will choose an entry point with less precision.Another example is a holder of a large position who requires significant volume to exit. In this case it may be unrealistic to sell at a single price point but instead they try to achieve an average sell price. This applies to large buyers as well. There are other examples, these are just a few.

Take a look at the 30day DOW chart in comparrison to the time of the prdictions!!!AMAZING!

The above is addressed to MA.I clicked the wrong box.

Can’t say that I’m excited, but I think that the sensation might more closely be related to heightened senses…

LEMMING WHISPERSProf. Roubini,There’s name to the game in this cartoon. It’s called Lemming Whispers. If want to learn how to play it here are the rules …http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A782516I like the following section specifically. The web link says …

Why play ‘Chinese Whispers’?Somehow, this simple game can relieve boredom in the strangest of ways at parties, there is nothing else to do and you are really stuck for ideas. This is especially effective at children’s birthday parties.

If the lemmings are stuck for ideas, they can always jump off the cliff for entertainment!Best,P1AQL.

The market was totally driven by the technicals yesterday. I think when they rallied 250 or 300 the program buying kicked in. Volume was pretty light most of the day making making it a little easier to push and shove. When you think about it the stock market has very little connection to the fundamentals at least on a daily basis. In any case it has drifted lower in overnight trading. Might just be a setup for a down day Friday.

Don’t panic, Rich,you’re one of the most influential voices in an extreme influential economic medium – I’d rank that blog in the Top 10 worldwide.Sometimes people here discuss about the difference the professor’s growing influence has made. In former times he predicted something, and then it happened. Today it seems that things happen BECAUSE he predicts them.And now just think of your predictions. When you started them, and were correct, you could be sure it was because you had done the math and knew the markets and the people. Today I’m sure that part of your spot-on-results derive from the fact, that the people and the markets know YOU.Of course, there are some more steps to go to become cover boy of Vanity Fair. But you’re on the right way.

Remember the good old days when dot com companies enjoyed ridiculous gains in stock prices just because they had huge losses. History never repeats itself but we keep making the same mistake in different forms. ‘Smart’ people always make little money ‘now’ whereas ‘clever’ people make money in the long run. People with wisdom make money for their kids and grandchildren and grand grandchildren. Wish those smart guys good luck in their speculations to come.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/krugman-return-of-depression-economics.html

Along the IMC route, rather than icing I would liken it to flying into a cloud based solely on the weather radar, where you only see the rain in front of you up to the point where it attenuates the signal, i.e. you don’t really know what lies ahead … a little more rain, or an embedded cell or two waiting to greet you.

Wrong, Sir…..check the CBOE Put/Call ratio which as of last night is 1.00……..at significant market bottoms it should reach 1.25 or more…..at 1.0 it signals a lot of complacency in the market…..check your figures before posting inane and wrong statistics

The way the Professor set the blogs at RGE (password protected) makes them very private. So GREmonitor pages in which one comments don’t show up in a google search.

These entities cannot get people to buy their products now so they’ll use the government to force our children to buy their products (through deficit spending today).When will we have the sense to foresee swinging the axe on the last standing tree?

I think you are right about this. And this is also why houses continue to be built despite the insanity of doing so.

What’s with all these flying anecdotes ? Flying magazine has a column called – I learned about flying from that. It was a collection of stories of near mishaps and other errors of judgement where the pilot survived to tell his tale. The idea being that perhaps others could learn from their stupidity. Maybe what we need a similar column about investing and finance !Another cool book is – Flying the Stockmarket – by Franklin Reick. It is set in the good ole days (1997) when people made money in the market, but it is good read. ISBN 0-944435-41-6.

Relax. Fame takes time. Get your own site and start your column there. You will never get the limelight on the good Professor’s site. After all, it is his site. Take the plunge – a lot of blooger here respect your views and will follow.Don’t take it too seriously – remember – in any event the world is scheduled to end on Dec 21, 2012 so long -term plaaning is essentially 4 years and few days !

Mark, did you just quote the Lorax?

Im reposting this, please forgive me. Thanks Mandrin for your previous response:Leading indicators seem to be predicting the Greater Depression. Please refute this so I can sleep tonight.Baltic Dry (shipping cost) drops a staggering 98%http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/shipping-holed-beneath-the-waterline-995066.htmlBond market either disfunctional of predicting a massive depressionhttp://www.forbes.com/business/2008/11/11/bonds-credit-economy-biz-wall-cz_mc_1111bonds.htmlConsumer Sentiment drops record amount in Octoberhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-october/story.aspx?guid=%7BE8DA56DA-33C8-4E13-8E46-5635A59B7A0A%7D&dist=google

The picture sums it up best. Bad news and markets rally. I just wish it would continue so I can short some more.

nourielthank you!

LOL no, it’s based on Jared Diamond’s Collapse: a question raised by one of his students wanting to know what the Easter Islanders thought as they chopped down their last tree (thus guaranteeing their ultimate collapse).

OhOh! Freddie just reported a quarterly loss of 25 truckloads of gold, 40.5 metric tons each! And is asking for 14 truckloads of gold, 40 metric tons each (88,000 lb. of gold each!) from Da Uncle. At this rate, how long before the uncle goes broke. As Ackman said in the Rose interview above, the initial bailout was just a drop in the bucket, and Paulson knew it.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2cWgMcVMLGw&refer=homeFreddie Mac Posts Record Loss, Asks for $13.8 Billion (Update1)By Dawn KopeckiNov. 14 (Bloomberg) — Freddie Mac asked the Treasury for $13.8 billion after a record quarterly loss caused its net worth to fall below zero.The third-quarter net loss widened to $25.3 billion, or $19.44 a share, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie said in a regulatory filing today. The losses forced Freddie to request government funds and the company said it expects to receive the money by Nov. 29.

I live in Michigan the worst hit state in the country and an unfinished subdivision in my neighborhood with about 10 unsold homes just sat for a year then they lowered the prices from 250k to 180k sold a couple but most still sat so then the builder gets foreclosed on the bank sells the vacant lots and inventory at a huge discount and in comes the new builder who lowers the price to 150k and resumes building more houses. Crazy!

Technical trading translates into casino gambling, we are now a nation of gamblers and high rollers.

here they are!http://www.census.gov/marts/www/retail.htmlFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, AT 8:30 A.M. ESTTimothy Winters / Aneta Lukasik CB08-161Service Sector Statistics Division(301) 763-2713ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICESOCTOBER 2008The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 2.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) below October 2007. Total sales for the August through October 2008 period were down 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2008 percent change was revised from –1.2 percent (±0.5%) to –1.3 percent (±0.3%).Retail trade sales were down 3.1 percent (±0.5%) from September 2008 and were 5.0 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 23.4 percent (±2.1%) from October 2007 and sales of furniture and home furnishings stores sales were down 13.5 percent (±3.3 %) from last year.The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Achuthan on CNBC at 6 AM (ET)CNBCNovember 14, 2008(CNBC) – ECRI’s Achuthan will be a guest on CNBC’s Squawk Box just after 6:00 AM (ET) Friday morning to discuss the latest view from ECRI’s leading indexes.Did anyone see him?

and greeted with a resounding applause from the futures markets that were down more that 154 below fair value and are now just down 114

OK. Good interview but he is holding onto the numbers until 9:30 am. From his very pesimistic tone, we will get another record low for WLI and further acceleration in the annual rate of decline.

Oh… for a second there I thought you had an inside scoop on our imminent “assimilation.”

So the cynic in me thinks this is why the huge rally yesterday – gotta gain some before the sell-off today on all the good news……….

I want in as well!

NEW POST

For a long-term perspective, check out the intraday volatility in the Dow since 1928. Over this 80-year period, the average swing is about 1.8%. There have been only 64 days when the intraday volatility exceeded 8%. That’s right — 64 days out of over 20,300 market days. If they were evenly spread, that would be about one 8% plus volatility day every 15 months.Here’s the amazing part — fourteen of them have occurred since September 29th. The Crash of 1929 had only eight. Another thirty followed during the ten-year Great Depression. Four were clustered around the Crash of 1987. Only two happened during the nasty 2000-2002 bear.Now, guess how many of these volatile days ended with a gain versus a loss. Find the answer here: http://dshort.com/

I can’t watch while I’m at work but I’ve made a note to watch at home tonight.Thanks for the link, OR!

I’m in.My agenda: 1) maybe we don’t need a central bank!Time preference: Anytime after 6:30pm EST or anytime Sunday.

LOL Nouriel I was thinking exactly as you suggest. The problem is this fictitious bottom that the analysts keep on talking about and most investors start to think of themselves as Buffets (another superhero created by the media) and as soon as there is a bit of buying, they all start thinking they have found the Buffet’s bottom and turned into “savvy investors”. It is really only the traders playing their games, driving the prices up a bit, and selling them after the “savvy investors” have bought and pocketing returns of 3-5 percent within a day.

I’d love to join the discussion, but I don’t know much about economics. I’m like average Jane, from the Midwest, still use dial-up, live in a small town. Best timefor me Central Time: after 7 P.M. during the week. Issues I’d like to see discussed:Social Security: I firmly believe the system is broke and I doubt it will bethere when my husband and I retire in 20 yearsEducation: There’s got to be a better way to educate our kids in the publicschools and finance some real reformHealth care: I am a home health aide/personal care attendant (caregiver) topeople who are low income and have disabilities. How can we keep them fromgetting hurt? Almost all of my clients are senior citizens , elderly women,who get very little Social security because they stayed home to raise theirfamilies. Some have dementia, others have mental health issues. More to thepoint, how can we make sure that future generations of seniors have a decentstandard of living, so they are not splitting pills in half, etc. to get by?I’d love to be a part of the discussion, any day M-F is fine with me.

Congrats on your market calls; however, many of us need specific reasons for your predictions (fundamental/technical)so that we may recheck them for ourselves. This would inspire trust, confidence, respect and ultimately promotion of your ideas!