first fffrom ps

I have much respect for your opinions, but to blame Bush is childish. You even said this problem has been brewing for quite some time.

I agree completely, Nouriel… We now need serious global structual system economists best ideas put forward. It’s all contracts, the world over, so what’s the best re-alignment of “The collisional mess of total global contracts?”

Rahm Emanuel in for White House Chief of Staff… Check!NR off the board for Treasury Secretary… Check!DOW down 390 and “change”… Check!Spin doctors lowering expectations at a furious pace… Check!And wheel’s just keep on turnin’,oh, those wheel’s just keep on turnin’

Professor I just commented on the last post regarding Obama and this seems more like a depression rather than a recession. The stock market drag is nothing like the steep declines and fast recoveries of the 70s and 80s. With deravatives market 100s of times more than what they were a few years ago, this might just become a greater depression. I think you should re-evaluate your work since things might actually be worse than you were predicting. Also, you wrote about a deflation-recession but what happens after that? How does the economy recover after that (and the consequences of deflation-recession). This resonates a lot with depression, and with these funky loans and instruments, what would be the effects of deflation on debt?

“Childish”? These Bushies wrecked this economy and the financial markets with their voodoo supply side dementia and market fundamentalism. So they should take responsability for the meltdown they have caused.

when the rate is 1%, how can you justify at 10 P/E — it’s a counter to your argument mr. roubini… please answer.

“it’s all contracts, the world over…”So true, Mr. Gillespie. And contracts that were made by men can be modified by men. But men are such fickle creatures, and once they believe they are owed something, it is oh, so difficult, to convince them that it’s just “all in their heads”.I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, but the problem we’re facing here is MORAL in nature. The vast majority of those contracts floating around out there, the “collisional mess of total global contracts”, as you call them, were written and entered into with the implicit aim of unfairly taking advantage of one or more parties. So how do you solve a MORAL problem? Only one way: you REPENT.Now, before everyone goes all crazy on me here, let me define the term repentance for you, in terms of this discussion. The Greek word for repentance was “metaneoeo”, which roughly translated means “a change of mind”. the “meta-” prefix indicates the magnitude of the change, and the “neoe” suffix can be translated in many ways, all of which have in common the idea of an unseen, yet real, force (thus, the mind). It is also implicit in the word that the change of mind (or spirit, or life force) is of such a magnitude that it leads to behavioral change. So, I’m not here to preach, but the word fits the bill, and I’m going to use it.In this specific case, we have contracts, written by and entered into by men. At the time, the contracts seemed like a great idea – now, the flaws in them, and their terrible consequences, are becoming more and more clear by the day. So we have a choice. Do we hold all parties responsible according to the original terms of the contract, or do we REPENT and modify or annul the original contracts, and set new terms? One option, of course, is to simply cancel all the contracts and start all over again – a Jubilee, which would be appropriate, since we are living in the midst of a Jubilee year at this very moment. Economically and politically, however, I think we all know that this isn’t a very probable outcome. So what do we do? Well, that’s up to the folks who have the right and authority to rewrite those contracts. One thing is quickly becoming clear, though. If no one chooses to REPENT, the consequences appear to be horrific…

Blame Bush is childish? Here comes the revisionists. Oh, and I guess that Holocaust thingy never happened either!

Dude: during severe recessions P/E ratios can fall well below 10 regardless of what interest rates are. This will be a recession bordering on the depression side.

This is a good articlewith concise historical data regarding events leading up to great depression, and events over the last 30 years. Include useful charts.Worse than the Great Depressionhttp://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10812″Based on indicators like (1) global real estate overvaluation, (2) indebtedness, (3) leverage, (4) outstanding derivatives, (5) global bubbles, and (6) the precariousness of the global monetary system, I would argue that the accumulated imbalances in the current period surpass significantly those preceding the Great Depression. I therefore conclude that the coming U.S. (and possibly) global depression will be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It likely suggests that we are entering a historic period that will likely be known as The Greater Depression.”LB, I always appreciate any information you provide about Bretton Woods II and how it is in the process of disintegration.hlowe

Are people getting the feeling like it’s all out of control? These folks are sloshing us around, back and forth shaking out all loose change. Riches continue to be concentrated in the hands of those that brought us this mess!Goldman Reverses U.S. Stock Advice, Says Shun Overseas SalesBy Michael PattersonNov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists advised U.S. stock investors to buy companies that generate most of their sales in America and avoid those with high overseas revenue, reversing a strategy they had advocated through July.

I am a great admirer of Prof’s macroeconomic analysis. However, I feel that the Bush administration is not only responsible party to the current economic mess. I am no admirer of Bush since his unilateral catch-phrase, ” Either you are with us or against us.” The House, the Congress and politicians in general, should also take the blame for supporting alot of Bush & Cheney failed policies, particularly, the war in Iraq. Most of all, the Americans must also take responsibility for voting Bush twice to the White House though he had a mediocre 1st term. Surely, the past EIGHT years reflect the importance of voting an excellent President to office for our economic wellbeing. I hope, we have found one and time will tell. On the other hand, I believe Americans in general must learn to be more frugal and live within their means and not leverage our future earnings for current consumption just because politicians ask us to keep spending for sustainable economic growth. With savings, good financial management and the support of our social systems, Americans could endure the impending recession with minimum hardships and still can send our childrens to NYU and other excellent institutions of learning.

Who made money off the Icelandic Banks CDS auctions the past couple of days because of hedge fund selling? Hopefully all of you took advantage of my free advice and made a boatload, I know I did!

(Tireless self promo ad)Don’t forget to visit:http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/254284/alt_energyMiss America

Told you guys two weeks ago about the Icelandic Banks CDS auctions Nov. 4, 5, 6th. Euro stength, dollar weakness, hedge fund selling everything. Oh, and WaMu cash settlement tomorrow!

AND IN BIZARRO WORLD, THIS JUST IN:Told you guys last weekend.If McCain wins … expect a significant downwards shift in the market. Take a look at what’s happening over the last 2 days.And unfortunately, we have not seen the latest unemployment data – probably to be released on Friday (I think).PeteNY

Though I’m not scholar enough to recite the history, my impression is that exigent circumstances usually trump campaign promises. I rate Mr. Obama as more pragmatic than ideological.

Blame most people collectively. The attitude has been to make a fast buck, irrespective of consequences. Politicians have responded to this mentality by getting on the bandwagon and flogging the horses to make ‘em go faster!

Do we ever run out of money to fight wars? NODo we ever run of of money to bail out corporations which are too big to let fail? NODo we always run out of money for everything else? YESSo is the problem money or the people controlling it?!!!

ROTFL (in a controlled, dignified manner)

AARGH! You have to guess which comment my response is tied to…(Can somebody PLEASE fix this insane way of posting?!?)

read Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter. Written in 2002. It’s almost a blueprint of what is happening now

These new rates are even lower than they were in the fifties and sixties and people did okay then.

Didn’t find any decent data source. Sorry.It’s sad and ironic, but I know much more what’s happening in the States than at home.

So let us not delude each other: the U.S. and global recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. This will be a long and severe and protracted two year recession regardless of the best intentions and good policies of the new U.S. administration. It will take a lot of hard work and sound policies to clean up this mess and reduce the length and severity of this economic contraction.And in the meanwhile the brief bear market sucker’s rally in the equity market has lost its steam and U.S. and global equities are starting to plunge again. As I argued for the last few weeks this was a bear market rally and markets could not defy the laws of gravity: a slew of ugly and worse than expected macro news, earnings news and financial news was bound to take a toll on equities and other risky assets. And now, after a brief rally markets are starting to plunge again. For 2009 the consensus estimates for earnings are delusional: current consensus estimates are that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will be $90 in 2009 up 15% from 2008. Such estimates are outright silly and delusional. If EPS fall – as most likely – to a level of $60 then with a multiple (P/E ratio) of 12 the S&P500 index could fall to 720, i.e. 20% below current levels; if the P/E falls to 10 – as possible in a severe recession, the S&P could be down to 600 or 35% below current levels. And in a very severe recession one cannot exclude that the EPS could fall as low as $50 in 2009 dragging the S&P500 index to as low as 500. So, even based on fundamentals and valuations, there are significant downside risks to U.S. equities.So the brief sucker’s rally is over and a reality check is now dawning on markets and investors. Expect this financial crisis and economic recession to get much worse in the next 12 months before it gets any better. We are nowhere near a bottom for housing, the U.S, economy, the global economy and financial markets. The worst is ahead of us rather than behind us.”Professor, you da man!http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Da%20Man

Everyone will offer different advice, but if your in it for the long run…This most recent explosion of U.S. monetary growth issignaling that the return on Gold should begin risingdramatically. That would be as expected as the FederalReserve is doing all possible to inflate, and reduce thevalue of the dollar. At the same time a massive short, realand psychological, position has been built such that aclassic short squeeze in $Gold is extremely likely.Investors not mired in the thoughts of 1930 should be buyingGold at these prices, while they exist.http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/schmidt/2008/1102.htmlThus, the flight out of the US dollar into commodities andgold will probably resume soon. After all, nothingfundamental has changed for the dollar. Its outlook worsensby the day as the federal government creates ever-moreschemes and gimmicks to bail out insolvent banks and jumpstart a moribund economy. As a result, investors and fundmanagers will soon understand that they are at risk bysitting in US dollar cash and owning US government debt.In summary, gold is still the place to be, regardless whichcurrency you compare it to. Gold is climbing against all ofthe national currencies presented in the above charts.http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

From Briefing.com – October unemployment report is due for release tomorrow morning (November 7th). Consensus expectations are running at roughly a 200,000 payroll loss and a 0.2% increase in the unemployment rate to 6.3%.

You do not have a clue, Sherlock

We have new leadership and an era of change, change that is well needed.

We would have seen a downward shift in the market regardless of who won. Your post is ridiculous. I can’t recall the correct terminology for it, but you are exhibiting the logical error of ascribing a cause/effect relationship between events because they occur contemporaneously, even though an actual cause/effect does not exist.

SOL”Insanity laughs the loudest”….and there is the problem:”Obama with his leadership abilities, intelligence, and great foresite as well as the rest of the Democrats can fix all the problems, especially since they had nothing at all to do with them nor did they benefit from them in anyway.”If you believe that, then you will believe anything… and deserve exactly that which you are going to get!!”A sucker born every minute” – you bring hope to the hustler (banker) classes;-0>Ho hum

For the love of God, would every one quit spewing that line. I’ll believe the “change” when I see it. Till then let’s concentrate on the economics and bring something useful to the forum.

Nouriel,20% – 720-S&P?35% – 600-S&P???500S&P?!?!?!?!?Based on “today” being the point in time which we balance the prospect of 2009 against??? Based on the bottoms from 2 weeks ago?So on January 1st, 2010, we will look back on the year of 2009 and say:The S&P fell XX%, to XXX, vs November 6, 2008.Why aren’t we looking at “average price for 2008” to be the base for an additional 20%-35% drop. Why would it be: “a drop from here of that much from this point we are at”???I ask this because markets overreact! That’s a “fact”. Don’t you think that the markets may have already overreacted, which is what has put us at the low points we reached? In other words, did the initial overreaction already price in the 20-35%.I’m not disputing you Nouriel. (though I disagree) What I need to understand is why are the drops beyond “this current point, or the “overreacted lows”???Miss America

How about “The Great Reckoning” written by that wonderful lunatic Lord W. Reese-Mogg. Published in 1994, and taken with a very large grain of salt it’s still right on target.

You’ve had the change – Obama himself said “Change has arrived”. It was him, you got him. You want more? Different policies? A whole ‘era of change’? Don’t be greedy!

Here we go again. Bush is the cause of cancer, and everything before and after Bush will always be noted as his fault. Well, he was far from perfect, as every person and president is. However, Obama is going to be a disaster if he is going to follow what he has campaigned on. I’m shocked Roubini can say with a straight face Obama will be good for this country. Things are going to be horrible. But as always, it will be W.’s fault. If this didn’t pertain to me, it would be laughable.

He did the math from the ground up ($50 earnings, 10 multiplier, etc.) to make his assessment of where the S&P could reasonably be. Why try to pinpoint a level of the S&P for his percentage drop? Then you get into making the assessment of overbought/oversold, which makes no sense.

“cum hoc ergo propter hoc”; correlation does not imply causation

Oh now I get, it’s all better now, change is here….praise Jesus or is it Obama I’m supposed to worship now….I get confused.please please please note sarcasm.

No India – “water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink” – Gungadin (sp?)Originally from the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge – later by ….??and more recently by Homer SimpsonHo hum

Well, the FED threw in the towel last night and started down the Japanese-style quantitative easing method; so whatever happens now, it will take years for the US to come out of this recession/depression.Consider this: while using quantitative easing, Japan’s central bank’s balance sheet grew to 30 per cent of GDP. The Fed’s balance sheet is already at 12 per cent of GDP. The main difference is Japan could and did use Mrs.Watanabe’s saved 15,000 trillion Yen; the FED has almost zero savings of any type to use. That is why all sorts of Treasury officials are doing the big “Buy US” sell in Dubai, Mumbai and Shanghai. Dollar default possible now?

Sorry, but strict math fails to figure into irrational markets. So macro views allow for the broad range of error. Which is why I am curious if from a macro perspective, he is using some sort of bottoms to derive droppoff points from. (ie failing to then account for initial overreaction.) “He said EPS drops from current levels”.I acknowledge all of NR macro views as amazing!His timing… ??? …has sometimes been a little flawed. (not neccesarily his fault as lagging data, birth death models, and revisionists delays often do that. If he was to give market advice… Timing is EVERYTHING!!! …and those market flaws need to be backed in.)Miss America

i meant: as in ned flanders, homers neighbor?Ho Diddly Hum? The Simpsons?

PeterJB, I think Guest’s comment was made with tongue in cheek, a sarcastic summary of half the comments on yesterday’s and today’s blog. But, true, anyone who would Believe it, would believe Anything. By the way, have missed you these past few days.

Kipling er, India”Ho diddly hum” – meSimpsons? – it’s ‘Merican “neo-literature” – I wouldn’t knowHo hum

Hmm… I have a few friends from college, in the USA and Australia (plus one from Canada), who are soon going to be emigrating to Germany. (Probably best place in the world these days, for the tech-oriented, with the culture there and the cities.)However, AFAIK they’re all going to eastern German cities (not Berlin) since the rent/mortgage is MUCH cheaper in e.g., Mecklenburg-Vorpommern than in the Hamburg/Frankfurt/Berlin triumvirate. Yet the services and quality of the cities still first-rate– IOW, it’s one of those cost-of-living hangover things from the reunification.Is this for research, actually moving there? Any particular focus on Berlin, or are some of the more medium size-ish eastern German cities also an option? Examples: Erfurt, Rostock, Jena. Great opportunities and affordable in each one!

The top priorities must be to rescue households, revive credit flows, stabilize real estate markets, and forestall unemployment. These are highly intertwined issues and will require co-ordinated and aggressive government action right now. The government must immediately redeploy capital to its highest and best use and cut uses that are not productive. More specifically:Allow households unlimited access to retirement funds to invest in their own homes or to buy a home as an additional investment option;Allow all college students to borrow 10k per year (12k for grad. school) at government guaranteed rates with deferred interest payments, in addition to all other aid packages available;Expand the GI Bill educational benefits to cover the entire cost of higher education retroactive to all who served since 9/11 and expand guaranteed mortgages for all vets up to median home value in their state;Recognize that the entire financial sector is laden with excessive claims and that CEOs know they face huge insolvency risks–meaning some must fail so that shareholder claims are extinguished, debt claims are discharged and inept manangers are ousted (as a good first step). Assets can then be sold to solvent banks, who should recieve government support on terms similar to Buffet. Putting precious capital into zombie banks is senseless.Build, baby, build. High speed rail. National University system. Mass transit. Electric transmission. Etc., etc., etc.Then, we can optimize legal infrastructure, starting with corporate governance, financial regulation, and the global financial system.My plan essentially seeks to redirect capital away from the incompetent and into its highest and best use. The Paulson plan does the opposite.

Miss America said thanks, Octavio! But he did it in REPLY somewhere UP there.I think he’s teasing you…

Okay that’s the third time at least the same bit of sarcasm/joke or whatever has been posted on this thread is tired now. Please move on.

I think you are missing the point. The market will go up and down, irrationally or not. I don’t see that he was trying to predict overbought or oversold levels (those terms are nonsensical anyway: overbought, oversold as compared to what). His calculation provides a basis for a rational value. Eventually it will come to this. Timing is ridiculous. You are trying to do the impossible. May as well just use a crystal ball.

Oh, and I don’t see that he is using “strict math.” It’s clear his numbers are all rough approximations based upon averages.It seems to me as if you are trying to use him as some kind of timing mechanism for your trades. Won’t work.

What kind of stable value is this (pooled, general account, separate account etc.). If pooled, i’d look under the hood to see how the investments are doing. If general account i would see the health of the general account backing it. If Separate account, i would see the wraps/insurance or the backing it has and the underlying investments in it.As for Total Return Bond fund, i believe that would be mostly corporates being traded?Between the two, if you feel gov’t to be safer, i would go with the one with highest exposure to govt/agencies. Otherwise, look for diversification and health of the funds.Hope this helps.

Nouriel is so crazy saying that we just barely avoided a systemic banking crisis. Jim Rogers is much more accurate here. Even Pete Stark (a banker) said it: there was no systemic crisis. This was simply pure theft. And so these zombie banks continue. What percentage did they pay Nouriel?

Try 120 on the S & P. And if you think I’m wrong, you’re like the guy who wrote (I believe, on this site), when I said copper would go to $2, that it would go to $20 before it would go to $2.Copper will go to 2 cents, where it belongs.

Hey grampa, didn’t most families live on one earner income back then and now it takes two and then some. Maybe they need to push polygamy?

I’m in your boat. No economist, I. But I read here to try and learn.I sold some mutual stock funds last January because I was getting uneasy.I now am at 75% total bond fund and 25% in: total stock index fund, total international stock index fund and growth stock index fund. Outside of this I have cash equal to three year’s (modest) living expenses in CDs and a mutual fund money market and a last resort account with enough for a holiday or condo udate. No mortgage, thank heavens. On the income side, I have a defined pension benefit (likely to see cola disappear in 2010) and social security.

Like MoveOn.Org? Really though, lordy hiccup is right, we don’t need to hear that crap anymore.

I think the Professor would tell you to put it in Stable Value (so far the Fed is insuring failed uninsured money markets), that is if you’ve already pulled your money out of stocks, and when the S&P 500 reaches what you or he believes to be a bottom, invest in the index if you are not a professional investor with a good record (that is if your company plan will let you invest in an index: amateur investors picking and choosing individual stocks invariably come out with lower profits than those invested in mutual funds or the index).As Capone said here about a month ago, these are investment times when your most important concern is to protect your principal: making profit is secondary.If you are going to sell your stocks, be very careful.Your investment dilemma is a common one with company 401(k) plans: a tragedy really. Your “choices” can all be bad. I think some company 401(k) investment choices were designed to fleece hardworking Americans by Wall Street. As the old saying goes, “There oughta be a law.”Anyway, one lesson from the 1929 Crash, is that those who bought stock with money they actually possessed did not have to sell, and many did quite well in the long run.Speculators were ruined but what they lost was money acquired without effort: other unfortunate souls lost their life savings because they gambled those savings on call loans.During the Crash, falling stock prices didn’t necessarily mean there was something wrong with the stock: in the panic, solid companies tumbled far below their natural levels. Those with the cash picked them up for a small fraction of their worth. Giant holding companies were formed for that task—Marine Midland Corporation, the Lehman Corporation, the Equity Corporation, JP Morgan’s Standard Brands… I think we can see this scenario beginning to form again, in the guise of hostile mergers and acquisitions — and with the use of cash from the Fed and the treasury.As G. Edward Griffin put it regarding the Great Depression: “Like the shark swallowing the mackerel, the big speculators devoured the small.”In short, we mackerel are in dangerous waters, again. Be patient, be knowledgable, and be careful.By the way, I don’t believe Nouriel Roubini is a big investor, per se—I believe he has some foreign holdings. Rather, he keeps an open mind and concentrates on global macroeconomics, emerging markets, finance and banking and geostrategic issues, rather than individual stocks and market investment choices.

Obama is going to have to initiate tough love policies that will cause him to piss off most Americans at one time or another. The question that is crucial is, will he have the guts and integrity necessary to stand up to the criticism he will endure or will he fold when polls show negative ratings in response to some of the painful solutions he initiates. It’s going to take great leadership and charismatic demeanor to negotiate the minefield of ill will he must generate to get us out of this mess. I hope he has the courage it will take.

You are simply a idiot. If Bush cured cancer, you would call him a homophobe for curing aids first. Never did get over that first Gore loss huh.

We needed a good crisis to get the necessary changes in the country. Obama and his economic team (Volcker, Buffett, etc.) will steer us in the right direction. What a fitting end to the Bush administration!

Christian Menegatti or RGEmonitor currently on CNBC Australia – (if you miss it they usually put up the videos within an hour or two

Better luck next time. As NR would say “The train has already left the station”.

Ecellent point Mark. Taking any form of investment “advice” these days is like Russian roulette. They are all corrupt commission feeding hacks in my book. Stay individual, learned and stay alert. Then invest accordingly. These guys are only herding money about into areas where they know they can profit. Eg “Buy Overseas” = Pump up O/seas markets so we can get out at a better price.All of ‘em, rogues and spivs.

Here is more evidence–if any more were needed–of what a clown Nouriel and how he has helped destroy the country by fabricating the “system risk” nonsense. I said a long time ago,ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS DECLINING.Remember? That’s the story of what is going on. Which is why I focus on maintaining the FACTS ON THE GROUND, such as housing. Small business knows this quite well. It is having no problem borrowing because there is no need to borrow becauseECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS DECLINING.And economic activity will CONTINUE TO DECLINE until there is a ban on housing evictions. Regardless of how you enforce this, no one is going to spend money when they feel their housing is at risk. Forget it. The only way to restore confidence in housing is to give people an individually enforceable right to make SURE they still have housing under all circumstances. Wake up and small the the eviction ban:The last National Federation of Independent Business report did not indicate credit concerns were high; from the October report (pertaining to September):Regular small business borrowers report that credit is increasingly more difficult to obtain. This has risen to 11 percent in September (12 percent said “harderâ€, 1 percent “easier”) as the creditworthiness of potential borrowers does decline as the economy weakens and customers disappear. Because a slowdown in the economy changes the credit worthiness of potential borrowers as sales and profits decline, more “rejections” will occur even with no change in credit standards by lenders. And, many credit worthy borrowers don’t need credit in a period when business expansion makes no sense and inventories are being reduced, not increased. Thus, the aggregate amount of business loans will fall with no change in credit standards. Regular borrowing activity was reported by 32 percent of the owners (down 2 points), reflecting a reduced need for funds to support inventory accumulation or discretionary capital spending. Both inventory and capital investment plans have been declining as the economy has weakened. So, credit demand is down and fewer loans are being made, but not directly due to a lack of credit availability. Loan demand is lower for many firms. Thirty-three (33) percent reported all their borrowing needs met compared to 6 percent who reported problems obtaining desired financing. The net percent responding favorable was 2 points lower than August and 2 points better than July. Interestingly, 36 percent reported all credit needs met in the tumultuous second half of September, compared to 31 percent in the first few weeks of the month.

Toyota set to open in Japan limit down.

That’s it exactly Wild Bill.WhenObama sits down for his first look at the REAL books, I’m betting there will be brown stuff running down his legs. Further, he will see his first term flash before his eyes along with all the multitudes of promises he was so eloquent in handing out. It will take enormous good will and courage to engineer a recovery because to succeed he will need to CHAINSAW spending- anathema to modern US Administrations.This would create enormous hardship in the US.Is the US up to this medicine?His Cabinet choices will point the way as to whether “Real Change” can be delivered or more of the same, dressed up with lipstick.The world awaits.

ORWould you agree that it is beneficial for you to monitor feedback from your comment by going directly to it instead of reading unrelated comments with replies to your topic scattered throughout? Thanks for not mentioning my misspelling.Reply to this comment By Guest on 2008-11-06 16:38:49 OK. I guess you are right. I am reconsidering… I am not very happy with my posting as of late so I blame the blog format instead of myself:-) I guess that as it happens with everything else in life, we human beings have the tendency to blame others for our shortcomings.Perhaps I am still adjusting to the Pampa after being in the Caribbean for several months…Perhaps it is just that I came down with a bad case of the flu…Perhaps it is Shilling’s latest letter (which I am reading now) and paints a picture which unfortunately I believe to be 100% right on the money but is extremely depressing. Lots of economic pain is coming to the world and it will hit the places where we linger (Argentina, Venezuela, Europe) the hardest.Perhaps it is is my realization, from the point above, that the limited commodity hedging I did recently was totally stupid and that I will have to reverse that trade as IMO commodities will continue plunging to around year 2000 levels; that the place to be during this global crisis is mainly US treasuries which will beat by a wide margin all of Mr. Gross’ wizardry in trying to beat his fixed income benchmark. Treasuries is where I was when I knew this was coming and where I should have stayed.The experience that comes with aging is a wonderful thing. This mood, like everything else shall pass, and things will get back to normal. I guess the zen guy above is right.Don’t get me wrong. I am overall quite happy with my modest performance this year and above all having avoided the train-wreck that has hit and will continue to hit so many people. I just don’t enjoy watching people in pain and knowing that even greater pain is coming.

Does anyone want to forecast with a time line and details what they think these economic situations will bring?

Crise Systémique Globale — Global Systemic CrisisLa fin du monde tel qu’on le connaît depuis 1945 !!! —The end of the world we have known since 1945 !!!http://crise2007.wordpress.com

Stop your whining – start your own web site Ryskamp.. dont come here if you dont like What Dr. Roubini says…

@ O.R -Don’t be so hard on yourself – there are many of us who read your posts religiously and learn from them, and we appreciate your insights.

i like that book,i thought weve reached the end of the tunnel in 2000then they slashed rates, and pig “housing” flysi think we’re heresome are touting the Green Revolution for the next bubble, i personally think it wont work

John -Where do you get 120? In my mind, 500 is a low (but not negligible) probability event. There might even be enough tail in that probability distribution to allow for an S&P in 400′s. But 120?

I don’t agree with your assumption that contracts are basically bad. Some are — and some aren’t.Our job is to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Fitch’s latest report (yesterday) is projecting high yield bonds default rates to exceed 2001 and 2002 levels of 13.9% and 16.1%, respectively. Currently, the default rate is less than 4%, so this should give you an idea of where we are in the downturn. Given that data, bond funds are risky at best. The stable fund your 401(k) offers is probably the least risky right now, although it won’t generate much of a return. Right now, think asset preservation vs return. You’d rather have a return OF your capital than a return ON your capital given your limited investment choices. Don’t worry, somehow everything always works out for the patient investor.

Oh, and one more tidbit: Watch for my posts. I try to stay abreast of investment opportunities, although most of them are just short term trades.

Kind of close, but… It’s the SYSTEM!“http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Nov05/Carpenter1102.htm”

I just think that $1 trillion deficits for 2009 and 2010 is still too optimistic: US tax revenue will fall sharply while all the bail-outs (including states and municipalities), the fiscal stimulus, the unemploymed, all this will make the federal expense to swell, inflating the already high deficit to levels not yet forecast.I think also that the basic imbalance of parts of the world consuming too much while others saving in excess is very difficult to correct: the US are stopping suddenly to consume and this gap CAN NOT be filled in the short term: China and India combined consume about $2 trillion; they have a long way to go before they can compensate a 10% fall in US consumption ($10 trillion currently). So it’s a really hard landing, on an unprecedented scale.In God We Trust…

Guest had it right. Greed is to blame…in the market and in the neighborhood, and in D.C. Blaming one specific group means you really don’t have a handle on what has happened. It all worked together and everyone was loving it…yes, you were too. Housing bubble started in the mid 90′s and no I don’t blame Clinton for that.

There’s that word again – GROW[th]!There is NO growth without an increase in essential materials and energy, which are both in decline.It’s not just about the cars. Cars require an extensive energy and resource intensive infrastructure.We’re heading into a permanent depression. People need to wake up to this realization!

A crisis brings out the best and worst responses in people.One of the worst responses to take right now would be to sit back, do nothing, and wait for things to deteriorate further — just so we can sit back smugly in a couple years and say “See, I told you they couldn’t fix this!”The problems that we’re facing are not insurmountable — at least for now. Wait long enough, however, and they just might be.

The latest from Berner is a must read. He took the bear baton from Rocah rather well:-)http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor7135A BIG storm is brewing…

Hi Michelle,For the financially illiterate among us, could you explain what you mean? In the previous post you alluded to making money because you knew these dates. Do you mean you bought euros earlier in the week knowing the euro would strengthen because of these auction and now they’re stronger and worth more? Or do you mean something else entirely. Thanks in advance for the info. Sorry in advance for being an economics dork. Turns out you can get a liberal arts degree and even a Ph.D without ever taking a shred of econ or business…

Good Lord, would you like to marry my mother (please) so I don’t have to support her after O’Bama takes away her job at Aetna! You sound so set compared to the majority of Americans!!!

Prof – You have called this crisis with uncanny accuracy. I remember first seening you on Larry Kudlow who would laugh at your suggestions of a recession. He isn’t laughing anymore. I took your advice. Thank you.Now, I would be very interested in what you and Robert Shiller would predict, from a behavioral science point of view, IF the baby boomers decide to have one last rebellion – against their kids. That is, throw them out of the house for voting the wrong way. What do you think prof? Would it kill the market?

OR i(we) love your postdont go awayp/si think the mentality that we shoud have going forward isCold Calculated Purely Logical Thinking With No Emotions Attached

I follow 2 people, NR and Shiller. And both are saying there is a lot of crapola to come.DOW at 7000 points?Nasday at 1200?any thoughts?

There was a guy on NPR today talking about how he would spend his way out of it. This seems like it would come naturally to him. How much debt can we sustain? He thought as long as it wasn’t much more than 50% of GDP it would be fine. He said it was 125% of GDP after WWII and it was fine…

You know, this has really been plaguing me. I wonder whether hyperinflation is on the back burner because the rest of the world is trashed? If one were to have been able to plan this out it would have been to take down the rest of the world as the US economy tanked. When you go down and no one else does THEN you’d have to inflate.I’m beginning to see that (as I have fundamentally known all along) we’ve all run out of time in bolstering our investments. Yes, _some_ will manage to beat out the averages, but the averages are/will be so depressed that compared to days gone by it’ll still be pretty sad.I see no growth ahead. As such, and in conjunction with the fact that the rest of the world is also tanking (all are affected by resource shortages), I see no hyperinflation: inflation is an increase!

Easy credit has several effects. Well known is the creation of asset bubbles. One I have not heard discussed too much is the movement of future purchases into the present. Might as well buy that new car now with 0% financing. And that washing maching. And that TV. Now all that consumption was moved into the present in an orgy of borrowing and consumption. The problem is, corporations thought that level of consumption would go on forever. They built plants, hired workers, borrowed to make improvements to their facilities. Now consumptions snaps back, and they have to lay off workers, mothball plants, default on loans.

From CR’s latest post above:”We are witnessing a fundamental reassessment of the value of virtually every asset everywhere in the world.”This is the Warsh speech at NYU today. Bet you the Prof. was listening…http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20081106a.htm

Whitney of Oppenheimer on the Financials (November 5)

Also if the US doesn’t have the car manufacturers will the Germans and Japanese just be able to jack up prices out the ying yang for cars because of limited competition? Not that people will be able to afford new cars but aren’t we really their consumers?

BOYS AND GIRLS, DON’T KID YOURSELVES.47% are already VERY pissed off that Obama is president.It only gets worse from here. No income,No job, No Assets translates to No love Obama (NINJA = NLO)

One of the few who can see through the Kennedy PR smoke screen.

FOOD, SHELTER, WATER!Transportation isn’t in this equation! We HAVE feet to get us around! “Jobs” is also not part of this equation!We’ve been brainwashed into thinking that we have to have “jobs” (which really are primarily working for the wealthy to make them wealthier), and that we have to have automobiles! Think about the history of mankind. Out of how many tens of thousands of years have we been hurling ourselves around for dozens of miles on a daily basis? 60? 70? And sure, we’ve been slaving away for the wealthy for much longer (this is going to take quite a bit of deprogramming/evolving to resolve this one!).We’re so messed up that we rationalize diverting food production for transportation (biofuels)! It’s like a heroin addict; will spend money on heroin rather than food. If we keep this up it’s pretty clear where we’ll find ourselves.If everything feels as though it’s messed up it’s because it IS messed up! Our priorities are totally askew!

Buffett is in way over his head. On the Charlie Rose show he demonstrated a total lack of understanding of basic macro economic issues. His recent investments in the financial industry have evaporated and his allegiance to GM is unfounded in any business model. Given his deep pockets, he will be one of few left standing, but that in no way confers authority to lead us out of this mess.

If OR do not like it, then I doesn’t. RepostOh, dear John, I love your introductions and conclusions. Usually they have nothing to do with the body of the text and with the so-said facts you want to lay down on the ground – not romantically nor consentingly I presume.Did it ever cross your mind that house evictions would not change much of the outcome. And then on what principle does the “right” to housing is based? I can perfectly understand that, in a country of welfare, the nation, through public institution may want to guarantee descent access to shelter to the ones who cannot afford it, but that “right” cannot be associated with the shelter I choose. I too, like anybody else, want to live in a Chalet and not pay a dime for it. If I cannot afford a place where to live, cannot afford renting, then I should be happy accepting a shelter, any kind of shelter.Banning housing eviction against homeowners isn’t that equivalent to supporting housing eviction against the real homeowners. Remember, when you say homeowners, most do own little or nothing of their homes, the real owners are final investors who bought the mortgages. Banning eviction, as a law, is giving incentive to everybody to not pay their mortgages, is evicting investors their payoffs, is destroying private property, is destroying the right to own and protect one’s property.I am not saying homeowners … whatever, homeoccupiers … should not get help and let their mortgages worked out, in a way or another, but their is a difference between working something out and extorting someone to give to someone else.And remember, that final investors, who actually bear losses, are also individuals. Banks and corporations did realize their bonuses, in terms of fees, long time ago, and are fictitious entities when it comes to bearing losses.

Possibly, or they could just go back to their ipods with the beleif all is good and well and O is going to take care of them.Maybe after a year of ignoring obvious contradictionsthey may start to get defensive, then another year or two before they scrape off their bumper stickers of Change.

Ah bon? et pourquoi 1945, ce monde là est fini il y a déjà des décennies, regarde autour de toi.Enfin bref, je n’était pas encore né à cette époque, alors je ne peux pas juger.

@Mark,I totally agree. We have lost perspective. All we need is a teepee and maybe a horse. But first population decline of about 5 billion needs to happen.

agreed – the problem is the folks who supported him thought he was about change as opposed to back to the future – that will define his eventual fall from grace

my post

The Congressional and Senate leaders ran which failed regulatory agencies? We have been raped by Republicans, both in the White House and among its fellow travelers in the legislature. We’ve replaced the first, and not a few of the second, with good Democrats.We need a second party. Feel free to form one. The Republicans, as a national party, are over. It’s now the Confederate Flat Earth Society, and its ganster associates in business are about to meet their reward.

That’s settled then; look forward to more from you. Know can you share some of what Gary Shilling had to say?By Guest on 2008-11-06 16:38:49hlowe

If you take a look at the dates of these prior CDS auctions on Oct. 10, Oct. 23, and again this week, that every asset class sold off due to forced selling by CDS’ counterparties. As you may recall, Oct. 23 didn’t sell off heavily, but the day after, Oct. 24, U.S. equities markets opened limit down. Asset classes such as oil, gold, commodities, global equities markets, etc. sold off heavily. This wasn’t due to fundamentals, but rather a need to raise cash. The October CDS auctions were for dollar-denominated CDS instruments, which indicates a huge need for dollars. This week’s auction was for euro-denominated instruments, which indicates a huge need for euros. Cash settlement dates are usually two weeks later, so the counterparties CAN wait until the deadline to meet their obligation but generally haven’t. Tomorrow is WaMu’s cash settlement deadline, and if is anything like the Lehman deadline, tomorrow probably won’t be a big down day. You may have noticed, though, that the dollar is stronger today, which may suggest a need for dollars for tomorrow’s deadline.Not that I want to see more failures and future CDS auctions, but these events have been a huge money maker for me.

It was not “greed” that did it. There’s nothing wrong with greed. Appetite is natural, and vital to the engine of the economy. What was wrong wasn’t how the engine was fueled – greed – but in how it was tuned. Rather, how it wasn’t tuned. The mechanics – the regulators – slept on the job.And they did that because of an explicit Bushite belief that engines, left alone, would miraculously become self-tuning, would evolve self-regulatory capacities better than the hand of the finest mechanic.Regulated greed is good; unregulated greed is deadly. It’s like any other fundamental motive power.

Dr. Roubini:I’d be grateful for any comments in re this proposal to put America on the right track.America is not oil addicted; it is car addicted. This core reality has escaped apprehension by politicians, pundits and economists alike. Car addiction is the root cause of the real estate mania (home and commercial), which mania became the triplever of the global financial meltdown.HOW TO CREATE millions of jobs, achieve energy independence, reverse the trade imbalance, restore the economy, save the lives of tens of thousands of working people and youth, eliminate three million injuries, drastically reduce greenhouse gases, banish daily traffic jams, severely reduce urban sprawl and noise, and improve the quality of life of 300 million Americans in one fell swoop:Shift spending priorities away from dangerous, polluting cannabalizing and socially ruinous automobile culture to energy-efficient, clean and comfortable RAIL. Take several hundred billions of dollars from the “bail-out” earmark and reprise the WPA. Use the labor and capital to build out a state-of-the-art passenger rail system from sea to shining sea. This to include city-to-city intercontinental high speed “Maglev” trains connected to extensive networks of local light rail and trolley cars in the cities and town.In the 1940′s America had a passenger rail, interurban and and streetcar network that was the envy of the world. Fact: a train can haul one ton of freight or people over 420 miles on ONE GALLON of Diesel petrol. Good bye energy and trade imbalance crises. Plus millions can be gainfully employed. Seventy percent of all oil consumed in U.S.A. is imported. Seventy percent of all oil consumed in U.S.A. goes to transport needs, mostly cars and trucks.The Total Rail Solution (TRS) guarantees America’s future as a productive economy and viable nation. The automobile culture is destroying us in more ways than one. Not to mention that TRS drastically reduces automobile crash deaths and injuries, delimits traffic congestion and quiets noise, dramatically cuts greenhouse gas pollution, curbs urban-highway sprawl and improves quality of life. The best return for the buck is rail. There’s no contest.PS. Since 1908, motor-vehicle road crashes have killed over 60 million human beings and injured or disabled another 900 million. By comparison, World War II killed 45 million (military and civilian). EVERY YEAR, 43,000 Americans die in road crashes; 3.5 million injured/disabled. More US teenagers die in car crashes than from all other causes of death combined. W.H.O. estimates two million killed and 35-40 injured/disabled worldwide in road accidents, which are now ninth leading cause of death and, by 2020, third leading cause. If our ancestors in 1908 had foreseen the bloody carnage, social ruination, and incalculable environmental and human cost of the automobile, they would probably have clamped Henry Ford in irons and cast him into a dungeon.

Excellent insight from Bill Buckler. Must ReadBEST OF BILL BUCKLERNovember 5, 2008The global sell-off in the stock, real estate and commodities markets is well documented. The huge deflationary effects this has had are enormous – forcing the global credit money system to contract its volume of credit money in circulation. This is a literal monetary deflation.Failures Expand From Lenders – To Systems – To Nations:This credit money contraction is now rolling into its second stage. Today, it is the lenders right around the world who are going broke. That is accelerating the monetary contraction and deflation to an even greater extent than before. Early in this second stage of the credit contraction, it was individual lenders being rescued. More recently, it has been entire national financial systems which have been rescued. Ahead lies the rescue of entire nations on the edge of bankruptcy. The Ukraine, Hungary, Pakistan and Iceland are now talking to the IMF for bailout loans.And in the face of all this, the US Dollar is soaring?!! It is climbing because the act of deleveraging means that earlier loans have to be paid back. Most of these loans were made in US Dollars. That means that the US Dollar has to be bought before the loan can be repaid. When the global leverage was being piled on, it was the US Dollar which fell as it was being sold to acquire other assets. Now, in a global reverse, it is the US Dollar which is being bought – so it is going up in value while the leverage is brought down as all these earlier loans are being paid off.The Very Temporary US Dollar Upside:The present upswing in the international value of the US Dollar will last as long as the deleveraging that is taking place around the globe. Once that ebbs away, the loans that have now been repaid will have the effect upon the US credit money system of contracting it even further, aggravating all the second stage effects of a literal credit money deflation. That’s the stage where huge numbers of lenders go broke.When events get to this next stage, the world will see a fast falling US Dollar while at the same time, many of the US medium and smaller-sized commercial banks will go to the wall. At present, many holders of US Dollar financial assets are using this US Dollar rally to sell out of their US investments. They stand ready to sell the US Dollar when the rally peaks. Foreign banks hold $US 12 TRILLION in US Dollar assets and liabilities. Their records now show that they are in the process of deleveraging.The Literal Word From On High:The blunt truth was stated in purely conversational tones, but the words were deadly and they could not have come from a more important person. The Bank of England’s Governor, Mervyn King, said that the UK banking sector had been “close to collapse” . Earlier this month, the UK banking system was closer to collapse than at any time since the start of World War I, Mervyn King had warned. That is systemic.Global Monetary Double Jeopardy:Two interlocking financial events are currently taking place on a worldwide basis. One is deleveraging, which has massively increased the global demand for US Dollars. The other is a second stage credit contraction which the monetary authorities in the US, Europe, Japan, the UK and Australia are fighting tooth and claw in increasingly desperate attempts to rescue their entire financial systems.Unlimited US Dollars From The US Fed:Bank of England Governor King’s remarks nail the issue. But the real situation is in fact very similar in most of the West’s banking and financial systems. As part of all the efforts to flood the financial system with cash, the US Federal Reserve made unlimited funds available to other major central banks early on Monday, October 13. The Fed did this so that the other central banks could inject money into banks in their countries and ease the shortage of US Dollars they face. But that set up the next problem. No sooner are unlimited US Dollars in the hands of these other central banks than they re-lend them to their commercial banks. Then, these new unlimited US Dollars are used to de-leverage the credit money systems as the huge overhang of earlier loans are paid off. THIS CONTRACTS CREDIT! The Fed is now in the strange position where the more unlimited US Dollars it pumps out, the more it assists the deleveraging which is sending the global credit money system into credit contraction. These are now transforming themselves into genuine second stage credit DEFLATIONS. If the Fed had NOT done this, many of these earlier loans would have defaulted, tearing the lenders’ balance sheets apart. That would have brought about an instant second stage credit deflation and sent all the lenders broke.The Same Credit Money Problem On A Smaller Scale:Today, even in the popular press, terms like “Billions” and TRILLIONS are thrown about with abandon. But what is today an interlocking sequence of global financial problems can also intellectually be seen in the small, so to speak. In principle, it is the same problem which any credit money system always has.Keep in mind that when any borrower walks into a bank and pays his loan off, not only does he cancel the amount that was earlier credited to his account but he also cancels a liability of the bank – the sum it had earlier credited to his account. Repaying the loan contracts the total sum of credit money which the bank has issued as a loan. It also deprives the bank of the income it earned on the interest paid on the loan. Cancelling his liability lowers the size of the bank’s totalliabilities. That makes the bank financially safer than before if it keeps the same amount of capital behind its loans. But if many people start repaying their loans to this bank, they would contract the credit MONEY it had earlier issued as loans. When that goes far enough – it amounts to a credit money DEFLATION.For example, if over a period of a few months, a bank’s sum total of credit money issued contracts from a fictional 1000 to 700, that would have a genuine economic effect. It would leave some local prices too high to clear in the area where the bank’s customers live. Some of these prices would break on the downside in an attempt to find the new lower clearing price. That would take valuations of all other like economic goods down with them. If some of these other economic goods have been put up as collateral for other loans from this bank and if their value falls below the size of the loans issued against them, the lending bank faces write-offs on its balance sheet and losses of its capital. If a lending bank loses all its capital – it goes broke. If it goes broke, it makes all its other deposits VOID!Pumping Madly Against The US Deflationary Tide:We live in unprecedented monetary and economic times. Consider, for example, the tally of what the US has already tried to pump into its monetary and financial system since the global credit crunch began back in August-September 2007. US funds have already been committed for everything from the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to Bear Stearns and the US insurer American International Group (AIG) to the $US 700 Billion financial rescue package approved by Congress to providing guarantees to backstop other selected US financial markets. So far, the total comes in at an estimated $US 5.1 TRILLION! Add another Congressional “Stimulus Mark-II” package estimated to reach $US 300 Billion and the Fed’s package of support of $US 540 Billion for the money market mutual funds.Where is all the spending money to come from? Simple – new BORROWING.The US money market funds broke down after a US fund named the Reserve Fund had to tell its customers that they would get less than a full US Dollar back on their investments. The US money funds hold about $US 3.45 TRILLION in assets. For decades Americans have seen them as THE place to park their ready cash, to be called upon as needed. But the failure of one fund led to a flood of redemptions which eventually reached about $US 500 Billion, according to the Fed. The huge outflow forced the Fed’s hand, it had to interpose itself in the financial gap with the new package of $US 540 Billion.If anybody is wondering about where the Fed’s money is coming from, it is being PRINTED.A Closer Look At The US Federal Reserve:If the Federal Reserve was a bank like any other, it would be shut down. But it is not. The Fed is a reserve bank and for them, the rules are different. The latest data published by the Fed itself is hair raising. It shows that “new” Federal Reserve credit surged by $US 245 Billion in a week to reach a new record of $US 1.740 TRILLION. This is fantastic enough, but the Fed has increased its credit issuance in the last five WEEKS by $US 851.8 Billion. In the process, it has doubled its balance sheet!Fed “new” credit has expanded $US 866.6 Billion so far this year, that’s a 123 percent annualised rate!What the Fed is desperately trying to do here, using all the means at its disposal and new ones it invents by the week, is to stave off the “second stage” deflation where literally tens then hundreds then thousands of small and medium banks and other lenders start to go broke. In doing so, they undercut, in the sense of making extinct, all the other depositors they have on their books.In effect, the Fed knows that the US financial system has already had a version a bank run, though in this case it was a $US 500 Billion run out of the money market funds. As best as it can be measured at this time, most of the $US 500 Billion hauled out of the US money market funds flowed straight into US Treasury short-term paper for “safety”. With this illustration of the mood which the American public are now in, it wouldn’t take much more before some fragile US commercial banks face bank runs. This is what the Fed fears the most. This would signal the fatal “stage three” deflation. In a fractional reserve banking system, only a fraction (in the US case at most 10 percent) of the depositors’ money in the banks is there in cash to redeem a customer closing an account in cash. The other 90 percent would get nothing.In terms of plain and simple logic, any fractional reserve banking system is inherently unsafe. It is financially unsafe because for every cash Dollar the public has deposited in the bank, the bank thinks itself free to issue loans – credited to borrowers’ accounts – to the tune of another nine Dollars. These other nine Dollars only exist on the books of the bank! Obviously, it would only take two of the bank’s customers to demand a cash Dollar each to break the bank – proving its financial insolvency. That is bad enough. But to superimpose on top of the fractional reserve system a credit money system in which the money lent by crediting it to customers’ accounts IS THE MONEY is the height of insanity.

Oh, and us folks from podunk Idaho raise spuds in our spare time.

Thanks! I’m taking this with me on the plane tomorrow for a studied read.

But why the need to transport people all over the place? To what, jobs building rail cars?You are correct in that “our” problem (really only an issue) is that it’s about our transportation system. But, it’s not that we don’t have the right kind, it’s because we’re based on transportation! And, transportation requires energy! (and all the energy and resources to make it materialize where desired)I went from a high paying job in which I had to commute (by bus, which is much more flexible than a train) to a lower paying one in which I can ride a bicycle. And now, thanks to a more forward-thinking program than investing in unneeded transportation (Commute Trip Reduction) I actually get PAID to commute by bike!Distances people will travel on a daily basis WILL diminish. Energy and population density will guarantee this. Better to take the $$ and invest it in getting local communities to be more self-sustainable. This is why I’ve advocated redirecting $$ from new road construction/expansion back to businesses hiring local people: this will start to re-mold local communities.

OR,You can’t leave us until Joe Kernen is driving a truck and Maria Bartiromo is stripping at a club!!! You promised….;^)PKB

I will attempt to be patient and disciplined and sell rallies in equities and buy sell offs in commodities. Lomg way to go as I was early and reckless. At the moment, oil is REALLY pressing my strategy. I have a technical argument now for JNJ to be at 47 in days or weeks. What does that mean for DOW? Against that at the moment is a VIX that only hit 65 today when the last 3 times before this when the S&P 500 hit 900 it was 65, 70, 70-72.5 and now 65 after down 10% in 2 days… Is this a marginally muted response by the VIX to the 2 day decline? If so, a one or two day reprieve at least to the selling and maybe we find a range between 8,000 and 10,000 until the end of the year as Miss America has suggested.On the other hand, many folks myself included expected DOW 7,000 ish prior to the upside crash. Why not now? Who can really be positioned for it with the wild crash to the upside except for the few select people who know all.A Doctor who works with my sister called me recently as I gave him gold at 475ish a while ago. I have not talked to him for a while and he said he put money in the stock market 2 days ago. I do not know him that well and obviously have not talked with him in a while, but my goodness how clueless can people be? The sheeple are still afraid of “missing out” and people I work with are still saying I am in it for the long haul… Well, enjoy the ride down folks! The sell side establishment has done a fine job of brain washing the sheeple to buy and hold even in the face of near chaos over the past weeks, months and year… Unbelievable.

The best return for the buck is rail.Yeah, just ask the native American Indians how well it worked for them OK, I will concede that rail, since we already have it, is important for serving freight needs.

Capone,As reluctant as I am to voice any predictions, I’m expecting a major low in the Currencies (Dollar high) between now and year end. Traditionally , many significant trend changes have occurred in this time frame.Or, confirmation during that period that such a turning point has occurred.FWIW and your risk.

Here is a link to a SIFMA economic outlook paper dated June 2008. Given the status of SIFMA, it is unbelievable how their “Advisory Roundtable” was off (so far – more to come I think).Key remarks:- No one single negative growth quarter into 2009- Forecasting a rate hike to 2.25% FFR by year end.- Employment and income growth drivers of consumer spending in H2 2008 and 2009.- No single negative growth quarter of consumer spending, capital investments …- Unemployment to reach 3.5% by 2009 (wow, I am feeling dizzy)…These are the people supposed to represent the cream of the cream, the elite of the global financial industry, but then, what did I expect?http://www.sifma.org/research/pdf/economic-outlook0608.pdf

Why must Americans have to drive a car for long or short trips or take an airplane for long trips when we want to travel anywhere? It’s ridiculous and deplorable this country doesn’t have a decent passenger rail network as a transportation option. This is country of 320 Mil people (counting illegals) and about 270 million cars. In a couple of decades, there will be 400 million or more people and Lord knows how many cars. Imagine what a transportation mess that will be! And all that gasoline guzzled by cars and trucks. Holy cow, USA uses 45% of all gasoline used IN THE WORLD. Yikes! What a waste. ALL our imported oil goes out tailpipes. We wouldn’t have to import ANY oil if we have good rail options. Trains are incredibly efficient and much safer.Even many third world countries have a better passenger railroads. Not to mention Japan, or Europe or Britain. I went everywhere in Europe and Japan on high speed trains. Who needs planes?But the highway and motor and airline lobbies buy off the pols and that’s why US has this huge monkey on its back. The more highways, the more traffic you get. It’s total urban sprawl craziness. America’s wealth was built on back of the railroads. We need to get back to what makes economic and social sense, like the man says.

2/3rds of the world’s population lives on $3/day or less. What makes us so special that we think that we deserve to “travel” at will?Where in nature can you identify a need to travel as much as we do?We’re a fluke. From the following refer to “Figure 1. The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization” Long-term I don’t even see trains in our future

Please tell me you are not being serious? Reprogramming? I think you’ll find the 47% of us are far more steadfast in our beliefs than the ones who would “REPROGRAM” us. What a load of crap, you people are amazingly stupid.

Thank you all.The choice in my 401K is T. Rowe Price’s Stable Value Fund.The bond fund is PIMCO (pttrx).Any more advice based on these specifics?

Down and Out in Beverly Hills: Rolexes, Picassos Hit PawnshopsBy Michael JanofskyNov. 7 (Bloomberg) — The worse the economy gets, the better it is for Jordan Tabach-Bank.“Business is booming,” said Tabach-Bank, the chief executive officer of Beverly Loan Co. in Beverly Hills, California.Beverly Loan is a pawnshop. Not just any pawnshop, but the kind that caters to people who hock Cartiers, Harley- Davidsons and Oscar statuettes when they need cash. They really need it now, Tabach-Bank said from a third-floor office, protected by bulletproof glass, off his showroom in the Bank of America building near Rodeo Drive.“I’ve never seen so many bankers, lawyers, doctors and actors” with valuable things to pawn, he said. He pointed to an 18-carat white gold bracelet with 69 diamonds ($2,900) and an 18-carat yellow gold Rolex Yachtmaster II (“a steal” at $18,500).With credit drying up at regular lenders, “in many cases now, we’re not just the bank of last resort,” Tabach-Bank said. “We’re the bank of only resort.”High-end pawnshops aren’t like most of the 10,000 dealers affiliated with the National Pawnbrokers Association, a Keller, Texas-based trade group. The average U.S. pawn transaction is $75, according to the association’s Web site.$2.7 Million NecklaceAt Tabach-Bank’s shop, “confidential collateral loans,” as they’re called, have been made on art works by Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol and Jean-Michel Basquiat. Amounts loaned range from several thousand dollars to “six- and seven-figure deals,” he said, with clients using the money to cover the mortgage, make alimony payments or finance cosmetic surgery.South Beverly Jewelry and Loan, also in Beverly Hills, has seen business triple in the past six months, said owner Yossi Dina. Some of the collateral is in a parking lot: About 60 cars, including Ferraris, Porsches and a Bentley.“We’re making loans today we never used to,” Dina, 54, said. “Millions — never used to have that. We’re selling a necklace now, the client wants $2.7 million.”The thriving pawnshops show that hard times have reached even Beverly Hills, where the average per-capita income in 2006 was $50,218, almost triple that of all of Los Angeles County, according to the city of Beverly Hills Web site.The median price for Beverly Hills homes sold in the 12 months through September was $1.3 million, according to Trulia.com, which tracks local residential sales. That was down 16 percent from the year-earlier period.Climbing DefaultsThe pawning surge has a drawback, according to shop owners. Just as falling real estate prices have led to record foreclosures in some cities, customer defaults have climbed by “a couple of points over the last six months” said Tabach- Bank.At Collateral Lender Inc. of Beverly Hills, the redemption rate has fallen seven percentage points to 82 percent and will likely drop more during the next six months, said owner Tal Schmargal, 52.People who fail to reclaim an item generally don’t return to pawn another, brokers say. The ideal client is one who hocks a gold watch, redeems it by paying back the loan amount and interest, then hocks it again when the need arises.“We want them to get their goods back,” Tabach-Bank said.Under California law, a pawned item remains in a shop for four months and 10 days, after which the client may get it back by paying off the loan or delay redemption by paying just the interest.The state dictates interest rates for loans up to $2,500, lenders for loans higher than that. The usual rate at Beverly Loan is 4 percent a month, Tabach-Bank said.Larger DiamondsIn downtown Los Angeles, King’s Jewelry & Loan began seeing luxury business pick up about 18 months ago when variable-rate mortgages started resetting to higher payments, said owner Sam Shocket, 54, a member of the national association’s board.“We were seeing more Rolexes, Patek-Philippe watches, larger diamonds,” said Shocket, who deals almost exclusively with jewelry.“Instead of construction workers, we’d see major contractors,” Shocket said of his customers. “Instead of real estate agents, we’d see brokers. Instead of actors who played bit parts, we’d see someone you might recognize from `The Tonight Show.’ ”People who pawn in Beverly Hills confess to a wide variety of needs. Dina said he has loaned money to producers to finish movies. Tabach-Bank said clients have pawned items to pay for mortgages, emergency health-care, “tummy tucks and face lifts” and gambling debts, “especially around Super Bowl season.”Keeping SecretsSome clients trade in things they just don’t want anymore, leaving them for the shop to sell. Beverly Loan has several cases of jewelry, including a white gold bracelet that would retail for about $38,000, Tabach-Bank said. His price is $20,000.The shop is also selling signed works by Picasso, Robert Rauschenberg, Norman Rockwell and Al Hirschfeld. Prices range from $2,500 for a Keith Haring to $250,000 for a Warhol print.Brokers in Beverly Hills won’t identify clients, citing confidentiality as a cornerstone of their success.“We’re like bartenders,” Tabach-Bank said. “People spill their guts to us even if it’s embarrassing to them. They know we won’t talk.”To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Janofsky in Los Angeles, at mjanofsky@bloomberg.netLast Updated: November 7, 2008 03:01 EST

You are too optimistic my friend,50+% unemployment post depression.

I suspect all the money replacement will once again be put back into commodities and equities to a lesser extent once risk subsides which would be highly inflationary or if treasuries do really well they’ll put their money in treasuries but that will be equally inflationary. Either way we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. By giving money to the wealthy I suppose the FED believes it can contain inflation but rich people like to earn interest on their money and eventually that capital will find it’s way into the markets.

I just read this post and cannot believe what NR is recommending for the treasury post. Tim Geithner from the NY fed? Is he nuts? Talk about putting the fox in charge of the henhouse. Does someone else know something I don’t. We need a strong, NON-wall street type as head of the SEC and the treasury and the FED.I’m very disappointed right now. I hope someone can shed some light on why this might be a good idea.

The current economic situation seems to have a lot more semblance with THE 6 YEAR DEPRESSION OF 1837 and the panic of 1873 than the the GREAT DEPRESSION of 1929:http://www.thehistorybox.com/ny_city/panics/panics_article5a.htm“Between the years 1833 and 1838 additions were made to bank capital and bank issues, in the form of notes designed for circulation, to an extent enormously great. The question seemed to be not how the best currency could be provided, but in what manner the greatest amount of bank paper could be put in circulation. Thus a vast amount of what was called money, since for the time being it answered the purposes of money, was thrown upon the country, an over-issue which was attended, as a necessary consequence, by an extravagant increase of the prices of all articles of property, the spread of a speculative mania all over the country, and has finally ended in a general indebtedness on the part of States and individuals, the prostration of public and private credit, a depreciation in the market value of real and personal estate, and has left large districts of country almost entirely without any circulating medium.”"In view of the fact that in 1830 the whole bank-note circulation within the United States amounted to but $61,323,898, according to the Treasury statements, and that an addition had been made thereto of the enormous sum of $88,000,000 in seven years (the circulation on the 1st of January, 1837, being stated at $149,185,890), aided by the great facilities afforded in obtaining loans from European capitalists, who were seized with the same speculative mania which prevailed in the United States, and the large importations of funds from abroad, the result of stock sales and loans, no one can be surprised at the apparent but unsubstantial state of prosperity which everywhere prevailed over the land; and as little cause of surprise should be felt at the present prostration of everything and the ruin which has befallen so many of our fellow-citizens in the sudden withdrawal from circulation of so large an amount of bank issues since 1837,exceeding, as is believed, the amount added to the paper currency for a similar period antecedent to 1837.”"When analyzing the suggested causes of the bubble preceding the Panic of 1837, empirical evidence would actually imply the opposite. Suggesting that banks were carelessly lending and creating a credit boom would imply a large drop in reserve rates. During the early 1830s the average reserve rates of banks were not decreasing, but remained relatively stable. During this time, the money supply was increasing (approx. 200%) despite the stable reserve rates of banks. This increase in the supply of money did not come from within the United States, but resulted from a positive specie inflow from foreign investors. British investors found it increasingly attractive to lend to the state governments in the United States in the 1830s. This increased level of available credit allowed the states to fund the building of canals through the use of state-issued bonds (e.g. Erie Canal).”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837″The causes of the ensuing panic of 1837 lay far deeper than in the complex processes of banking or in the faults of Federal administration of the finances. But, as a man suddenly ill prefers to find for his ailment some recent and obvious cause, and is not convinced by even a long and dangerous sickness that its origin lay in old and continued habits of life, so the greater part of the American people and of their leaders believed this extraordinary crisis to be the result of financial blunders of Jackson’s administration. They believed that Van Buren could with a few strokes of his pen repair, if he pleased, those blunders, and restore commercial confidence and prosperity. The panic of 1837 became, and has very largely remained, the subject of political and partisan differences, which obscure its real phenomena and causes. The farseeing and patriotic intrepidity with which Van Buren met its almost overwhelming difficulties is really the crown of his political carer. Fairly to appreciate the service he then rendered his country, the causes of this famous crisis must be attentively considered.”"The American people with one consent gave themselves to an amazing extravagance of land speculation. The Eden which Martin Chuzzlewit saw in later material decay was to be found in the new country on almost every stream to the east of the Mississippi, and on many streams west of it, where flatboats could be floated. Frauds there doubtless were; but they were incidental to the honest delusion of intelligent men inspired by the most extraordinary growth the world had seen. The often quoted illustration of Mobile, the valuation of whose real estate rose from $1,294,810 in 1831, to $27,482,961, in 1837, to sink again in 1846 to $8,638,250, not unfairly tells the story. In Pensacola, lots which to-day are worth $50 each, were sold for as much as lots on Fifth Avenue, in New York, which to-day are worth $100,000 apiece. Real estate in the latter city was assessed in 1836 at more than it was in the greatly larger and richer city of fifteen years later. From 1830 to 1837 the steamboat tonnage on the Western rivers rose from 63,053 to 253,661. From 1833 to 1837 the cotton crop of the newer slave States, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Florida, increased from 536,450 to 916,960 bales, while the price with fluctuations rose from ten to twenty cents a pound. . . .”

Whenever the original post is “too far up” I will post at the bottom of the tme line:That’s settled then; look forward to more from you. Know can you share some of what Gary Shilling had to say? By Guest on 2008-11-06 16:38:49 hloweShilling’s letter is in-line with the analysis the professor provides here but he backs his analysis with a lots of hard evidence via data charts. The letter is by subscription so I cannot post from it.You can read free articles from Shilling here. They go all the way back to 1997 so you can see how impressive his record is. (free subscription to forbes.com required)http://search.forbes.com/search/colArchiveSearch?aname=A.+Gary+Shilling&author=gary+and+shillingA few highlights from the November letter:He discusses in great detail the 4 steps of this unfolding crisis: subprime->credit crunch-> US recession->global recession. He provides a detail analysis on how the recession in the exporting countries and commodity producers will actually be harder than here; e.g., on China, like the professor, he says GDP down to 5 to 6% which is a big hit for china.He discusses in great detail the deleveraging process that consumer and financial firms are going through; how the consumer overdid it with debt and will now start saving resulting in a big drop in consumption, capex, etc.He sees future US GDP more around 2% than 3% which grave implications for corporate earnings and stock valuations. If you remember, this was one of the assumptions I made in my are stocks cheap? model a few weeks ago. He provides the analysis that makes such an assumption robust.He provides lots of detail on how business in WS will change to more traditional banking functions and how risk capital will be harder to get by and its implication for economic growth.He argues well for continued USD strength and deflation. But, IMO, there will continue to be faked inflation scares in the market.I would take advantage of the noise. Inflation scares will result in occasional increases in long term treasury rates which one can use to load up on 30 yr stripped bonds.

Whenever the original post is “too far up” I will post at the bottom of the tme line:That’s settled then; look forward to more from you. Know can you share some of what Gary Shilling had to say? By Guest on 2008-11-06 16:38:49 hloweShilling’s letter is in-line with the analysis the professor provides here but he backs his analysis with a lots of hard evidence via data charts. The letter is by subscription so I cannot post from it.You can read free articles from Shilling here. They go all the way back to 1997 so you can see how impressive his record is. (free subscription to forbes.com required)http://search.forbes.com/search/colArchiveSearch?aname=A.+Gary+Shilling&author=gary+and+shillingA few highlights from the November letter:He discusses in great detail the 4 steps of this unfolding crisis: subprime->credit crunch-> US recession->global recession. He provides a detail analysis on how the recession in the exporting countries and commodity producers will actually be harder than here; e.g., on China, like the professor, he says GDP down to 5 to 6% which is a big hit for china.He discusses in great detail the deleveraging process that consumer and financial firms are going through; how the consumer overdid it with debt and will now start saving resulting in a big drop in consumption, capex, etc.He sees future US GDP more around 2% than 3% which grave implications for corporate earnings and stock valuations. If you remember, this was one of the assumptions I made in my are stocks cheap? model a few weeks ago. He provides the analysis that makes such an assumption robust.He provides lots of detail on how business in WS will change to more traditional banking functions and how risk capital will be harder to get by and its implication for economic growth.He argues well for continued USD strength and deflation. But, IMO, there will continue to be faked inflation scares in the market.I would take advantage of the noise. Inflation scares will result in occasional increases in long term treasury rates which one can use to load up on 30 yr stripped bonds.

Technology doesn’t create jobs for every job it creates it eliminates 2 or 3, follow that curve and private ownership is dead, add supply side economics and you just added rocket fuel to that engine.

I believe he said he owns some index funds or etfs but no individual stocks despite his predictions and does not talk his book.

New London Banker post.The Fed doubles its balance sheet – above $2 trillion in just 5 weeks

@ Professor RoubiniWe fully agree about the scale of the challenge and the depth of the mess. But it is because of these that I must disagree about the suitability of either Geithner or Summers for any post in the new administration.The same good old boys who wrought the deregulation and forbearance are not the guys to clean house.Volker I would enthusiastically endorse.Otherwise, like FDR, I would search the country for someone like Marriner Eccles – a banker who resisted the allure of over-leverage, excess compensation, high risk gambling and other recent sins of the Wall Street brass.

I think a far less expensive alternative would be local mass transit, for smaller communities. Bus service between towns and suburban areas, not just cities. Sure you still use gas, but far less. I think this would be a great business opportunity and something that could be implemented rather quickly and inexpensively compared to rail, and you also have the advantage of flexibility as to where you can travel.

LB: Agreed. This is a critical time.PeteCA

From AboveMy Comment: “Told you guys last weekend.If Obama wins … expect a significant downwards shift in the market. Take a look at what’s happening over the last 2 days. And unfortunately, we have not seen the latest unemployment data – probably to be released on Friday (I think).”Reader Response: “We would have seen a downward shift in the market regardless of who won. Your post is ridiculous. I can’t recall the correct terminology for it, but you are exhibiting the logical error of ascribing a cause/effect relationship between events because they occur contemporaneously, even though an actual cause/effect does not exist. “No, what I’m saying isn’t ridiculous. I just need to explain it a bot more.No doubt the market would tend to trend lower over the general term. That’s true. But what I’m commenting on are the high losses in the market immediately after Obama’s win. The Dow and the S&P both lost around 9-10%. Thise a really big drops over a 2-day period.Let’s not kid ourselves here. IMHO, the PPT has been highly active in the US markets. Paulson has been an orchestrator for a lot of intervention. So do you think that the Republicans might just want to send a message once Obama gets elected? You better believe they do. This situation is very similar to the time when the US congress failied to pass the rescue billon the first try. What did Paulson allow the market to do? It dropped by hundreds of points the next day – with no intervention. The powers-that-be were sending a clear signal. And they’re sending the same message right now.So it’s not that fact that the market showed some drop. It’s the huge drop, coupled with no intervention, that sends a message.PeteCA

The message is:Hands up ! you still need us, or we would give to you a chaos.

I’m a dummy but when the dollar default will happens ? Soon ?

In my opinion the fed has created a monster. Same with the sub-prime readjusting mortgages plan. The equity market would have founded a bottom and would be on a rebound were it not for Fed putting money in “anywhere and everywhere”. This has led to a lot of uncertainty and created a “drag”. Also, the sub-prime readjustments are another “drag” and will not let housing find bottom soon. As inevitably people who can’t pay their loans will not be able to in 3, 6 months especially with a worsening economy. This might lead to a second wave of serious foreclosures. By then, fed will have already exhausted all its room for maneouver in the looseing of the monetary policy (it happened to fast in my opinion and the fed will soon only be able to watch things unfold).So, if Roubini’s prediction of deblation-recession comes out true, and if the above “drag” in housing and the sustenance of weak-bussiness (almost near collapse but not), then the chances are that it will prolong. If that really does happen (it becomes a 2-year deflation-recession), then it will almost certainly become a depression. With zero or low interest rates, from what I can think: there is only one reason to issue debt by firms, corporations, and individuals:If there is inflation– that is if my money would be worth less next year, then I might want to counter that by even giving a 1 percent loan. However, with deflation, the worth of cash can only increase, thus leading to hoarding of cash rather than issuance of debt. With no incentive to lend (very low-interest rates with counterparty risk), and deflation–increase in real worth of cash–lending will come to a halt. With the “real” cost of debt increasing, this would lead to another wave of corporate defaults. On the supply side, without debt, and consumers without debt, there will be further contraction.The FED has virtually exhausted all their resources now. They have put all their egss in one basket (like the banks) hoping that the above situation never culminates (deflation-recession), but if it does, and if there are drags in real estate and other aspects of the economy, I see a very good chance of a depression. Of course this is just my personal opinion, but I felt the professor didn’t explain what would happen next should a deflationary-recession come.Also, this depression will be a mix of: the great depression (on deflation side, default of debt, and the like), started for the reasons and shows symptoms of the 6-year depression of 1837 (speculation, debt, asset-bubbles), and the real-estate bubble in europe, and America, which caused the bank-run in America in 1873.

Did you all see the revision to the jobs lost over the last two months!!??? Man, they didn’t miss by much last month did they?? Guess this if food for a huge rally today huh? LOLOLOL

ECRI weekly index plunges furhter into record low territory!!!!WLI Growth at Fresh All-Time LowReutersNovember 07, 2008(Reuters) – NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) – A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to a 12 and a half-year low and its annualized growth rate set a fresh record low, indicating a severe recession is underway, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 110.9 in the week to Oct. 31, down from 112.9 in the previous period. The index is now at its lowest level since April 12, 1996, when it stood at 110.7.The index’s annualized growth rate slid from minus 21.9 percent to negative 24.6 percent, its lowest ever, according to ECRI data.”With WLI growth diving to a new record low over its six decade history, prospects for U.S. economic growth are worsening swiftly,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.The weekly leading index (WLI) fell due to higher interest rates, slower money supply growth and weaker housing activity, which was offset in part by lower jobless claims, he said.

The middle class was a freak result of industrialization where human capital became extremely important and strong unions worked for equality of the worker but that has about run its course as technology has eliminated those jobs, so it’s either back to the dark ages where very few are property owners and the rest are peasants or we go socialistic. This will be the new choice we face going forward. Either way capitalism will never be the same again as all of those labor efficiencies if allowed to continually be funneled into the hands of the very few will destroy the middle class.

John, copper t0 $0.02 an ounce? Absurd: production costs average $1.00 an ounce. At $0.02 all copper produers would shut down.

See this article by Chris Laird:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2008/1106.html

LB: agreed.It is folly to expect a different outcome by repeating past behaviors.If we’re going to do “Change”, we need to “Change”.Obama has about 30 days to demonstrate he understands what he’s into. Remember what happened to Colin Powell after he let himself be co-opted.Obama needs to use what’s left of his campaign money to buy another 30 minutes of prime-time TV, and set out the fundamentally different course we the people need to take.He needs to level with the people about what we’re facing.Reagan was successful in great measure because he was so good at end-running Washington (existing power and info-control systems) and going directly to the people.Obama has the money, and it’s his to use.Use it. Tell the people what they must do.

“Whenever the original post is “too far up” I will post at the bottom of the tme line:”OK

That wasn’t me. The website was frozen so I hit submit several times. Normally when that happens elsewhere you only get the action of a single click as a result. Blame the IT people, not me. It must feel great to provide negative feedback behind an anonymous cover. Doesn’t it? Down here we call that lack of cojones.The quality of the blog, however, has improved. I used to loose posts all the time when taking more than a few minutes to type.

I am delighted to see the clarity and consistency of the objections to President-elect Obama’s choices and short-lists for chief of staff and Treasury.Obama sold himself on the Change theme. We bought change. I paid with my vote, and I’m going to go after Mr. Obama’s administration with a jack hammer if he lets us down.I want:a. Federal deficit-spending targeted at long-term wealth-generating enterprises here in America. I want progress-payments against deliverables, not up-front-no-strings checks.b. Massive investment in education and renewable, sustainable energy generation and energy conservationc. Reduction in spending – immediate and large in defense, war, international policing, mid-east brokeraged. Cooperation. International energy, financial, security, environment issues need strong international cooperation. We must strengthen international bodies, and include India, Russia, and China front and center.I want Mr. Obama to lead the people, to operate from the power of the people, and not function through the power-brokers.I want CHANGE, and I mean business.

And if you don’t get it? What are you going to do about it besides whine? I think the answer is, how does it go, ‘You Ain’t Gonna Do Nuthin, Suka!’

During the third quarter the turmoil in the global credit markets resulted in the worst financial crisis in more than 70 years.Coming from the 3q release from General Motors, a cry for help?

Oh, and the monetary base going up 48.2% year-to-year? No worries! We are in a deflationary period

Good work.Thanks for helping to rile up the crowd. You don’t need to rile me up much, though, because I’m already there.What me and people like me are doing is to build the tools that enable the “bottom-up” crowd to build their own economy, without having to depend upon the “leadership” to do the job, as they clearly cannot.But while we little people are busy doing what the “leadership” should be doing, we’re going to make it obvious that the “leadership” is clueless.If necessary, people like me are going to do for this Administration the same thing we did for George Bush. He left office as a demonstrated sham, and he’s disgraced his entire family in the process. It’ll be awhile before a Bush is in public office again.Obama is a good man. I have no doubt of that. He has, however, made a Faustian bargain with those that “brung him” to the dance. He must break that bargain, or he’s toast. Not because I say so, but because reality will roll him over, and hard.If you think Americans are going to sit quietly and watch their entire economy and middle-class lifestyle be destroyed by the fools that masquerade as leaders in this country, you are mistaken.The dummies among us were bought off by free money and new TVs. Many went for it. That trick is over.What is the next lollipop to mollify the masses going to be? Where’s the money going to come from?Answer: it isn’t. Party’s over, and Mr. Obama better get up the macro-econ learning curve in a great big hurry.

Mitt Romney says:* Obama must do what’s necessary, even if it doesn’t appease the people that financed his campaign* Obama must bring in the very best statesmen, economists, and business leaders to execute a fundamentally different policy. Not party hacks, but the best people* Obama must be Educator in Chief. Tell the people what they face. Don’t talk down, don’t lie, don’t mollify or placate. Tell them.Don’t assume that because I post this link I’m endorsing / supporting Romney. I try to evaluate ideas on their merits .vs. from whom they have come.In that spirit, I offer you this piece by Mr. Romney.I hope you’ll read it, consider it, and weigh in on the subject.

This is the same thing that happened when the last 2 presidents got elected. All sorts of people were saying what they needed to do, even demanding it.The administrations ignored everything, did what they wanted to do anyways, and ta-da look what we got.The Administrations do not answer to the people, they should, but they don’t.

What’s a good country to move to inorder to ride this storm out?

Hitler kaput, facing foreclosure, mentions NR:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

Mitt Romney is one of those guys who would put the final nail in the coffin of government working for the people. This guy is the epitome of casino capitalism. Colin Powell came out and said “So what if Obama is a Muslim.” It’s too bad when Obama was being accused of being a “socialist” that nobody actually came out and said, “What’s the problem with that?”

Please consider the option of reading what the fellow said, identifying his thesis, and arguing the facts and the logic of his assertions.Labels and names and slander are not terribly helpful in the process of identifying and promulgating good public policy.

That’s just more stock phrase excuses. In the 1930′s to early 1950′s, US had a LOT FEWER people, a whole lot more rail. Rail was king. Anyhow, US population is greatly concentrated in giant metropolitan areas easily served by rail. China and Russia are big too. China is going gangbusters to build stare of the art highspeed rail. They got passenger rail. We don’t because the Big Boys and the politicians gutted it. They’re afraid of it because it’s much cheaper, uses less resources, and does jibe with the 60-year Interstate Highway urban/suburban plan of sprawl that the banks financed. Rail is revloutionary. The automobile is a dinosaur.

Absolutely correct. What are we going to do about it?First, make it clear we’re paying attention. If Obama does smart things, he gets props. If he does same-as-before things, the crowds swiftly transition from adulation to rage.That’ll do as a starter. He gets until next March to get the message.If his administration continues down the stupid path, start the grass-roots resistance stuff. It’ll be bigger and much faster this time – a magnitude different.But for now, we just serve notice. We are paying attention, and we are not currently impressed.Your move, Mr. Obama.

This is NOT, I repeat, NOT a failure of capitalism.Ron Paulhttp://mises.org/story/2895

The Congressional and Senatorial leaders in charge when the problem was building up were Tom DeLay, John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and Trent Lott.Trying to blame the Democrats for the financial crisis is what cost the Republicans the election. The voters can tolerate mistakes, but not people who blatantly lie about them.

“He has, however, made a Faustian bargain with those that “brung him” to the dance. He must break that bargain, or he’s toast.”WHY? his votes essentially came from those he serves.”(Baby boomers rebel against their kids for voting the wrong way)”will the rebellion be a televised event with dylan playing at the nursing home? the retired and out of the economy will inherit the earth! right.Dylan will spit in your face.

Professor Roubini:I have often agreed with your analysis and commentary; your 6 November commentary on “The Economic Mess that Obama Will Inherit” was no exception, though I take issue with a few points, as noted below.On Obama’s Economic Panel:Obama is truly a man of leadership, vision and great intelligence, but also a charismatic leader who earnestly wants to solicit ideas from all corners. Take Larry Summers, William Donaldson, and Penny Pritzker, who are on Obama’s Economic Panel for 7 November. These people were “architects” that helped to create the economic problems that we have today (1. Summers: a key architect in the repeal of the Glass-Stegall Act, which has led to the imprudent and highly leveraged “bets” by our nation’s banks; 2. Donaldson, former SEC Chairman who agreed to allow 5 large investment banks to leverage up to 30 to 1; 3. Pritzker, Chairman of a Chicago bank that was an architect of the “no money down” subprime mortgage fiasco). In the best of all worlds, Obama should pretend to listen attentively to the likes of these people, then tell them he appreciated their contribution.Earnings Below $50?:John Mauldin recently presented a compelling case for a significant earnings drop among the S&P 500 companies. A quick review of John’s economic data presented in his Commentary entitled “Economic Blue Screen of Death” (http://www.investorsinsight.com/media/p/2317.aspx) shows that the S&P earnings for 2009 might come in at under $50, if we’re lucky.Richard DiNucci

Well, I haven’t been around that long, but based on my experiences, the government doesn’t do a good job at allocating resources. My experience with socialism is that they take from the productive and give to the nonproductive based on their imperfect idealogy, formulations and execution. Net results the government impedes more than promotes.So where is a good country to move to inorder to ride this storm out.

Oh, good grief.The Republicans had absolute control from 2001-2007.Even after the whipping they took in 2006, Republicans had substantial control in the Senate and, of course, control of the White House.The Democrats did not time travel to create the crisis.Up is not down, no matter how much the FOX propaganda machine tries to tilt the world.

Iceland?

So basically you are saying a grass roots group either claps or boos at obama depending on his leadership?How do you make it clear we’re paying attention?How do you give props and how do you start a grass-roots resistance?

Yeah, or maybe he’s the pied piper!

Dave, Is that you?

A great post — While I personally have no confidence in 0, your post is reassuring that at least some of his followers voted with their brains as well as their hearts.

Same way it ever was. Find the highest peak around, pick up your megaphone, get your words right, and start speaking.Stay civil. Stay focused. Repeat often. Engage your friends and family in constructive, appropriately-toned dialogue.Get educated about the problems, devise some alternatives, and start speaking out.Do what 99% of the people that come here to post are doing: collecting info, thinking, evaluating, deciding, and acting.It works. Remember, money only works as long as turnout is low. Don’t ever forget that. Anything that causes turnout to be high is dangerous ground for the power-brokers.And when the people start actively thinking for themselves instead of getting their programming from the TV…well, the rules change.A lot.

I agree with almost everything you said. I don’t know you, but I evaluated your words and found that they comport with my observations and prior thinking / closely held beliefs.I can say exactly the same thing about what Romney said. He said some smart things. I evaluated what he said, not what he is.That is a key, fundamental capability. Out of your enemies’ mouth comes some of the most important feedback you’ll ever get.Evaluate all inputs on their merits, from friend and foe alike.

I’m not buying socialism; it’s too expensive, it doesn’t do what it advertises, and you can’t return it once it’s out of the box.

AND you never own it but you get to keep making payments.

You just described the last 8 years of the Bush administration. Thanks!

Thanks for your explanation but I’m still not 100% following you (truly I am a financial idiot but working hard to get better so thanks in advance for bearing with my obtuseness).So are you saying you figure out when there is likely to be selling because of these auctions and then you scoop up whatever’s being sold on the cheap because the fundamentals are still good and its bargain basement priced? Or are you actually trading currency at times you know there will be big demand? Just trying to figure out if the origin of your profit is currency trade or another asset trade. I am limited in the numbers of moves I can make with a TSP account per month (all in treasuries right now). Also I have to place the order to move by noon EST but the move doesn’t get made until that night. It would be good to have an idea when to jump into and out of the market based on these auctions. Obviously I want to be poised to go at the end of a very bad day and leave at what promises to be a better than average day. Its almost impossible at noon to have a good idea when all the action seems to take place between 2-4 pm.Also, do you think the dollar was up a bit because the BOE and friends dropped rates yesterday? If they drop rates don’t they push their currencies down relative to the dollar?

the whole world wants change can’t ya hear!!!!!!!!!!!A West African court has convicted Niger’s government of failing to prevent a 12-year-old girl from being sold into slavery. The precedent-setting case could help thousands of Africans who are still enslaved in Niger and neighbouring states by bringing more attention to their plight, and forcing governments to do more to eradicate the problem.The state of Niger argued that it had done everything possible to end slavery, which it outlawed just five years ago. But the Court of Justice for the Economic Community of West African States ruled otherwise on Monday. Niger was ordered to pay Hadijatou Mani 10 million CFA francs (about $25,000) in damages for allowing her to be sold into forced domestic and farm labour in 1996 for about $600.“We are law-abiding and will respect this decision,” Mossi Boubacar, an official for Niger’s government, told Reuters. Critics of the government, however, say the ruling is proof that the government needs to do more to implement laws against forced labour.

Here! Here!I vote for intelligence, authenticity and art.I’m tired of ‘McWorld’

Fat lot of good my 4 years of High School GERMAN are doing for me right now!

Retribution for a 12-year-old slave girlMani, now 24, sued Niger for allowing her enslavementTags: Anti-Slavery International, Hadijatou Mani, Niger, SlaveryA West African court has convicted Niger’s government of failing to prevent a 12-year-old girl from being sold into slavery. The precedent-setting case could help thousands of Africans who are still enslaved in Niger and neighbouring states by bringing more attention to their plight, and forcing governments to do more to eradicate the problem.The state of Niger argued that it had done everything possible to end slavery, which it outlawed just five years ago. But the Court of Justice for the Economic Community of West African States ruled otherwise on Monday. Niger was ordered to pay Hadijatou Mani 10 million CFA francs (about $25,000) in damages for allowing her to be sold into forced domestic and farm labour in 1996 for about $600.“We are law-abiding and will respect this decision,” Mossi Boubacar, an official for Niger’s government, told Reuters. Critics of the government, however, say the ruling is proof that the government needs to do more to implement laws against forced labour.

YES!Death to neoliberalism and Friedman’s ‘Disaster Capitalism’ … let’s take it back to the left and maybe we’ll find some sort of rational balance on the way.Human survival depends on it.We’re such dumb animals.

@J Parmer…Metanoia is another form of the word, yes. I chose metaneoeo because it is also used in the original Greek documents (the Gospels), and fit my need a bit better for the point I was trying to make.Your post is very thoughtful and well written. I wish you the best as you try to navigate these rough waters. I admire anyone who has the courage to own their own business – I tried, but failed, so my hat is off to you.I also appreciate your attention to the “micro” picture. It seems to me that we as a society spend a lot of time worrying about things beyond our immediate control. You show wisdom in you willingness to look around you and meet the needs of those within your immediate circle of influence. I wish you the very best…

You aren’t a financial idiot, you are following exactly what I’m saying. I didn’t mention market timing or asset classes since those decisions are best left to the individual. You are spot on in regard to market timing by knowing the dates of the CDS auctions, and I typically sell into equities rallies before the end of the day and go short the day before the auction. My preference has been to buy ultrashort ETF’s. I also place limit orders on stocks I want to buy at lowball prices, and set these limit orders before the market opens on CDS auction days. Commodities and currencies work in a similar fashion, so if you’re sitting on a long position you can either load up on the downturn or sell prior to the auction.The beauty of these auctions is that the Fed doesn’t try to support the markets on these days since the selling pressure is too great and it doesn’t make sense for them to risk losses, otherwise they might as well just hand over money to the hedge funds. Really how I see it is that the Fed props up the market on bad news days, sucking investors into buying. Once the market is overbought which is ideal for forced selling, the hedge funds have can drain out funds out of these asset markets to meet their CDS obligations. Quite a scam really, but it keeps the Fed from having to fork over the dough and instead, other investors do. I hope this answers your questions about how I am making money. Unfortunately, there aren’t any more CDS auctions planned at this point in time, but will post if I know of any coming up in the future. Remember, these are my own assumptions and free advice is what it is, so study up on these things I have explained so you’ll be better prepared to take advantage of these opportunities. Good Luck!

Obama’s NEW President-elect websiteChange.govDepending on your perspective, it’s going to be either eight long years or eight is not enough.

I’d say let Volker make the appointment (he’s too old himself)BUT the one of the usual suspects will get the nod, b/c the sword of a market swoon during the 1st 100 days is dangling and too quick a change of guard will decimate his power base.Summers is a terrible and unPC choice, Rubin’s obscurity to J6P is more likely.Obama Iconoclast? hardly.Hopefully it will be a temp position and eventually a secretary with less loose change rattling around will get in there.Obama for loose change!

Obama Economic press conference about to begin — stocks up or down — Currently +200 – I say up 200 more once he is done — PPT trying to keep their jobs in next administration.

you have to be enrolled at mybarackobama.com first and have made a contribution… not really but it would not surprise me – Note – there is a hint at his speech though in the content

why are the markets up today? Did I miss a tidbit of goodnews somewhere?

I just got it and I like it “Loose Change” but quite disrespectful

“Danger, Will Robinson!”

I second this. I’m totally puzzled.

you should see the crowd 0 is with on stage — Buffett, Schmidt (Google) oh man this is unreal — I wonder if the spirit of JP Morgan himself will be summoned

After 8 years of looting by Bush, and four years of Obama looting on behalf of the Combine, will there be anything left?

Can you believe this garbage:”Obama is truly a man of leadership, vision and great intelligence”Obama is a Combine/Rezko flunkey and a moron.

give us your money and you have a say?Sounds like democracy to me…

Obama voters got taken for a ride. One look at Obama’s voting record proves that. He ran as an “antiwar” candidate and for the first time since LBJ was backed by a mass movement of antiwar voters, but Obama voted for every Iraq spending bill since he’s been in the Senate. (There is also very little evidence he would have voted against the IWR.) He wants to keep soldiers in Iraq and push off more into Afg. He called Chavez an “evil dictator” (WTF??) and said it’s all still on the table with Iran. This guy is no antiwar politician. I’m guessing he’ll do some targeted bombing, killing more innocent civilians, within his first 6 months just to prove to the MIC and those Nascar dads that he’s no pansy. I doubt many people in Afghanistan are partying over Obama’s victory.

The possibility of Bush curing anything is remote.

Hugh Hendry did.What else yo got?

That’s good enough for me… more Kool-Aid, please!

He has a bit of a stammer without the teleprompter – He is confident that he and his team will be able to right things — the best was when he singled out a reporter who asked questions about what kind of dog they will be getting… apparently that topic is generating more interest on his website than anything else… at bit Kennedyesk -

SOME SOUND REAL ESTATE ADVICEReal estate will hit bottom if and when Obama causes America to depopulate.Real estate and household incomes will continue to plummet if America continues to populate.You can take my advice to the bank.

A very good post that illustrates that if the US education system could concentrate a little more on teaching history; maybe, just maybe some of these over-educated fools might acquire some wisdom to go with their MBAs.

Did he recommend magic underwear?

Hi jugglingcdosUnfortunately you’re wrong re logical thinking. Human action starts with emotion, thought/logic without emotion is fairly near impossible, thought we have inherited it as an ideal from the enlightenment. “The crucial aspect of psychopathy is emotional impairment” Dr. J. Reid MeloyThe logical thing to do to solve the economic crisis might be to, say, to exterminate 9/10ths of the worlds population and take their money. Most humans would react emotionally to that plan.Even your initial statement (“i think the mentality that we shoud have going forward is Cold Calculated Purely Logical Thinking With No Emotions Attached”) seems to have begun with an emotional response to the economic crisis and a desire/hope to find way out of it. Fairly non-rational but admirable all the same.

A high school world history teacher back in HS once told me:”Octavio, history is based on facts not suppositions”,when I asked him how history would have turned out had Napoleon not stepped into Russia, which to me looked as a very foolish decision coming from such smart general…His answer is probably the best answer ever I got to an in-class question. It is certainly the one I remember the most. My learning from his clever answer is that we must try to learn from past mistakes, and in doing so try to improve our future; but that wondering about how things would have turned out had we done this or that is a total waste of time.However, being the stubborn guy that I am, I cannot help having “what if” history-type questions flashing my mind. I just had one of them after listening to Obama speak, followed by a Bloomberg commentator who made a very positive comment on how Clinton handled the Presidency.The stupid questions that came to mind were as follows:How would have the world turn out if Clinton had not made the stupid Monica Lewinsky mistake?Would Gore have won the presidency?Would we ever have had to put up with a GWB presidency?Would we have had 9/11 (i.e., if Bush wasn’t elected in 2000, would we had had such a careless president that when briefed during the summer of 2001 that some middle east guys were interested in fliying lessons that did not include learning how to land)?It is all a stupid waste of brain energy but I cannot help wondering:-)

Typical.

The fat people will say he’s too skinny. The short people will say he’s too tall. The naked people will say he wears too many clothes, the old people will say he’s too young.

I agree PCAMy Obama honeymoon lasted about 48 hours.Summers and Emanuel fill with me dread. Its the same shit again.

I’ve also heard that:(1) History is agreed-upon lies.(2) History is written by the victors.Assuming that either or both of those are correct, I’m not sure where you would get the historical “facts” that your teacher spoke of.

But what will you do if the original post is “too far up” ?

Sales Statisticsfor SAN DIEGO County CARealist’s most recent recording date for this county is 10/30/2008Single Family ResidenceTime Period Number of Sales Median Sale PriceSep 2008 2,016 $370,000Sep 2007 1,128 $541,000Aug 2008 1,947 $385,000Aug 2007 1,672 $565,0002008 YTD 16,129 $410,0002007 18,280 $555,000CondominiumTime Period Number of Sales Median Sale PriceSep 2008 1,044 $245,000Sep 2007 788 $370,000Aug 2008 1,075 $266,500Aug 2007 1,130 $360,0002008 YTD 8,770 $294,0002007 12,872 $374,000hlowe

Octavio, I don’t think it’s a waste of brain energy. It is possible thousands who have died would not have. Trillions of dollars that were lost would not have been. Untold damage to foreign relations would not have occured. Environmental degradaton would be much less. This is not the first time in history that global affairs hinged on romantic ones. The history of the United States may be subtitled “An Oral History Gone Wrong.”

Look at this relentlyess last minute buying!!!! Dow almost up over 200 points in half an hour!

Talking about opportunity:http://www.physorg.com/news145255770.htmlHo hum

I could not agree more. The very thing that caused this meltdown (over consumption) is the only thing that could save/reestablish it which would lead to an even bigger meltdown down the road. We all have to face that this is the time for a massive writedown in assets and debt (sorry that’s the accountant in me). Life and the way we think regarding spending is changing, it has to. I appreciate the attempt to take us in for a softer landing but it only puts us in a worse position later. We have to tighten our belts, reprioritize, accept that which is difficult and do our best to keep going.Blame whichever set of politicians you want, but they are all guilty as are we the american consumer. But the blame doesn’t end there, the factory worker in Malaysia and any other third world country may not know how the global economic markets work but their governments do and they chose to ride along with us. We are all to blame so it’s time to stop pointing fingers, time to move past how it happened and get moving on how to get through it, not fix it. This current structure is not fixable, it must evolve into something else, something hopefully managed with plain common sense. The days of 30-40% returns are gone, they were never sustainable, once every 20-30% years an idea comes along that allows for that kind of growth but only until market saturation then we all go back to 6-8% growth per year till the next big thing, not imaginary bubbles that lead to this.Sorry if that seemed like a rant I just truly believe we have to move on and put our feet to the ground and rebuild sensibly.

He was elected just in time for the Digital T.V age and man they can do some tricks with that Green screen, we could fight and win a war that never was with great sound and close up shots. We could be scared and herded to unknown places without any real danger. However we all know that this new digital broadcasting will not be misused. It will only be used for better TV viewing experience. Good thing we are all honest or the masses could be fooled by scenes that did not exist. Will you really be able to watch the news with confidence once the digital experience begins in Feb. 2009?

Have you ever watched the news with confidence?

What a waste of Tequila.

I need vodka. the raod ahead looks so bleak

@PeteCAI posted this earlier above – but since you brought this issue up here I wanted to repeat.Obama, is consulting with Karl Marx – don’t ask me how – but this is where we are headed. A pure socialist world. They will bail out Detroit to appease the unions – which ought to be eliminated. They will bail out Detroit to save jobs – it is welfare.The VOLT electric car is a joke @ an estimated price of $47,000 apiece!!! That is $78.34/hour blue collar unionized BS for you.BYD has a much better machine according to the specs. I am reading.

OR, I agree with almost everything except the part about Obama not running in ’08 had McCain succeeded Gore. I think the Obama presidency was / is destiny.During every presidential election the candidates say, “This is most important election of our lives”, which of course is usually BS. But I really believe the 2000 election was the most important and in that 5 to 4 Supreme Court decision heaven and earth were set apart. Here are a few reasons:I believe 9/11 would have still happened, but that we would have cornered and eventually captured bin Laden in Tora Bora in 2002, and Iraq would never have been invaded. And by now Saddam Hussein would once again be our ally against Iran, which of course would be a MUCH better situation than the one we currently face.

Double-size Me!Wal-Mart/China/Corporate America, luv’s you …Sucker!

Gee Nouriel, you nauseating little dog, is Rahm Emanuel also a man of “leadership, vision and great intelligence.” Is there anyone in the political system you won’t suck up to? Corrupt hyena.Daily Observor, November 7–”Having convicted Ryan, Fitzgerald started to move on the Great Untouchable in Chicago politics-Mayor Richard M. Daley. In 2005 his office indicted a number of top aides to Daley on charges of mail fraud, alleging numerous instances of corruption in hiring practices at City Hall. Despite a federal decision allegedly removing hiring as reward for continued political service, it seems Mayor Daley had turned a blind eye to its operation. Fitzgerald found that a Daley top aide fielded requests for promotions from taxpayer-paid civil workers in recompense for political work they performed-including flooding the neighborhoods with canvassers in the 5th district which cuts an oddly-shaped swath across the city’s north side…in behalf of Rahm Emanuel.Emanuel is a lean and hungry Cassius…a former ballet dancer but who is definitely not a girly man…a brash and profane son of an Israeli immigrant (he uses the “f” word in almost every sentence), who owes his soul to Mayor Daley and who had become (a) political director of the Clinton White House where he regularly defended the 42nd president in the media vis-à-vis the Monica Lewinsky affair and (b) a multi-millionaire by learning first-hand from those close to ex-treasury secretary Robert Rubin how to make money in the investment banking business by using his old political connections. He became independently wealthy…$16 million net worth… managing a merger involving Chicago’s major utility, Com Ed which as a novice he managed by hanging on the phone and following orders dictated by Rubin associates. He was on the board of Freddie Mac, never mentioned in a laudatory “New York Times” bio, Freddie Mac having been fined $50 million during the time of his service for serious ethical impropriety). He ran for Congress in the 5th district (Dan Rostenkowski’s old district) and when a senile worker for Emanuel’s Democratic opponent claimed Emanuel had duel citizenship (here and Israel) Emanuel raised a stink, claimed his opponent was anti-Semitic and got the nomination, tantamount to election.Still and all, his election ground game was run largely by patronage workers from the city water department, for which its recruiter, Don Tomczak, went to jail-a matter Fitzgerald is still looking at. Once in the House, Emanuel proceeded apace, is a member of Ways and Means and is now chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. He has just been appointed as Obama’s chief of staff in the White House. But needless to say, Emanuel will never forgive Fitzgerald for prosecuting the man who mobilized city water department employees into a political army that elected him and others.”

Channeling Marx would be a good thing, not a bad thing. Not going to happen, though. Ob left all that behind him.

The ability for readers to leave comments in an interactive format is an important part of many blogs, noticably absent there.

At least the average middle class can get something from Wally World and China for their hard earned money, instead of wasting it on the .gov

Ummm, Teacher’s UNIONS overwelmingly support Obama.

Part of the problem with this economy is that too many people nowadays spend far too much time surfing the internet and posting on and/or reading message boards like this one instead of actually engaging in productive activities (i.e., working) which benefit the economy.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-eu-eu-summit-financial-crisis,0,873139.storyEuropean Union leaders backed a 100-day deadline for world’s leading economies to decide urgent global finance reforms, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Friday.

OK, So if we dial back to Troy…if only Paris had kept his d!#k in his pants (or skirt) and didn’t get the hots for lady Helen, then where would be be???If only Achillies had minded his own business…or maybe decided he wanted lady Helen for himself…gosh, I bet the stock market would have been up say…300 points yesterday…puhhhhhleassssse

And if McCain had been elected then it would have been fourty-something percent pissed that McCain was president. Big freakin’ deal.Of course it’s going to get worse from here. It can always get worse, the real question is, what can we do to make it better?

So are those that freak out over a sarcastic rebuttal.

irony at its best

Because they ordered him to have one. We’re about to see just how stupid a wind-up doll Obama really is. This moron will make Dan Quayle look like Aristotle. He’s a REAL dodo.But that’s all right. If the scum is not indicted before inauguration (but then, Biden and Cari are also Rezko scum, so…President Pelosi? Baltimore mafia princess? Gee, what’s a country to do), wait to see people start throwing things at him when they realize that he’s just a front behind whom a bunch of thieves are hiding!! Ha ha!!

Just the mention of Sarkozy, Brussels (sorry to any Belgians here), emergency, deadline … makes me very wary and reminds me of those post-war imperialist plans and treaties that reshaped the geopolitical realities of the world.Any historian here to draw any parallels?Sarkozy said. “We have to react and we have no time to lose.”Indeed, not even enough time to make the loss materialize, they will swiftly rearrange the cards … once again.

blah, blah, blah, blah, blah… do you think that post was included in the government’s productivity numbers?

What happens when a leader mesmerizes the people into believing in hope, change, promise for a better tomorrow and the reality ends up being extremely painful and disastrous for a long time? Stay tuned… Today I was home sick and some of the morning talk shows were mentioning an O’Bama baby boom in 9 months. WTF (what the f_ _ _ !) Are people complete and total morons? At least, he is mentioning and emphasizing to a small degree in both his election night and today’s addresses that it will be difficult…

et en plus, tu as le sens de l’humour, un peu noir a mon gout, mais bon.

Sarkozy pointedly mentions a “100 day” time frame for action because he knows Obama will take over in January. We must not roll over for Monsieur le President. With the right type of political muscle. We can preserve the dollar’s reserve status now and make the necessary changes that will get us a reasonable deal later. Obama will be a thousand times more credible than Bush/Paulson.

Not a moron, but not especially brilliant in intelligence or inspiration. Clueless like most others at the moment.McCain had more ideas.Obama is surely not the type to envision a fundamentally sound, if difficult, solution, then to pursue it with conviction and determination. So the slide may not end.Hope I’m wrong …

That’s pretty unintuitive, to say that less demand will cause house prices to rise.

Why not volunteer yourself as one of those 5 billion to decline?

Ever try one of today’s Chryslers, say the 300C? It’s maybe the best family car ever built (and the SRT8 is a barrel of fun and truly world class.) And affordable.Detroit is now building great cars. If they didn’t have the burden of much higher health care and pension costs than their Japanese competition, they could flat-out win. This is the issue that needs to be addressed: keeping them operating while reducing those costs. Bankruptcy (but operating in bankruptcy, Ch. 11) may be the answer, it’s tough on those workers but they still have a good deal going all things considered.The auto companies are performing now, and we need them. They are national security assets. Any right plan would save them, and Obama is looking in the right direction.

Son of a gun, you’re right again John. Biden is tied up with Rezko …http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/rezko/1124666,CST-NWS-rezko25.article

Bloomberg Sues Fed to Force Disclosure of CollateralNever thought I’d say this …. GO BLOOMBERG!I think this is the wave of things to come. People want answers, people want accountability.

Obama said a very good thing in his speech on election night in Chicago: we can’t have a rich Wall Street and a poor Main Street. Now he talks about protecting the middle class today.It is almost too good to be true: he’s improved after the election!I like Obama better now than a few days ago. Maybe it’s really true that the banks will NOT get their money’s worth for all the money they contributed to his campaign. If so, I wish President Obama all good fortune in carrying out the agenda of protecting Main Street at the expense of Wall Street.

Perhaps Obama will appoint you as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. given your obvious “people skills”

“protecting Main Street at the expense of Wall Street.” Sounds somewhat vengeful to my way of thinking (and understandable), but for the candidate of unity and change why not a message of prosperity without it being at the expense of another.

clearly Bloomberg has been hacked, or perhaps Mr. Mayor is starting early on his 2012 campaign

You can improve your French real fast at translate.google.com

Zee Chevrolet coupe’ees on zee parkway.

Link to paper? What will happen?Why is it predictable, have you proved a Turnpike Theorem?

Yup, it’s vengeful. Because justice is important. Main Street should be able to feel it’s not the only one suffering, and should not be lied to.Main Street will know that BASE salary on WS is at least 100K, they will not accept the payment of bonus on top of that this year even though each little employee didn’t cause this.Unity with Wall Street? Haha. WS was never interested in that before so it’s too late now.

The only short-term hope that Detroint has could be an increase of the yen vs. the US dolar. An increase in the Japanese currency would push up the price of Detroit’s major competition – Toyota. However, would Japan and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ever really allow that to happen. Whenever you look at the currency pair yen/dollar, in many ways it reflects a direct war over the future of the auto industry. Obama will need to push the dollar down realtive to the yen, or alternatively to impose some sort of import tax on foreign auto’s. We’ll see how this plays out. There is a real possibility that we are entering a period of “trade wars and tarrifs”.PeteCA

What kind of ridiculous idiocy is this? What HAVE you been smoking? Not Shermans!!

I found the answer to my own question. From Emanuel himself? “Nancy Pelosi’s valet.” Some people will do anything. Maybe Rahm should read Proust instead of choreographing the removal of his own finger. That’s so hurtful!!!

I have often wondered lately if he has any idea truly what he is about to endure and experience. For example, does he know he will lead the US into WWIII?

Wasn’t it the Dems who pretty much signed off on setting the stage to attack Iraq?When “sanctions” are set in place they are the initial attack. If these don’t work then the ONLY next step is an offensive defensive war!And now I’m reading Albright’s name popping up?It’s got nothing to do with the puppets, everything to do with the system…

I even think that this is moot. Really, why do we expect a change? Don’t ask for it, do it!“http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Nov05/Carpenter1102.htm”Time to get off our knees and shake the whole lot of them off our backs. And when done allow no one to step forward as a “leader.”Quit using the system (before it uses you [all up])!

Another example of how our own elected government officials (where is Senator Dodd [head of the Senate banking Committe] anyway?) can’t do their jobs!

Dude, you are worse than me :+)What I originally meant was that he left “to fix economy” as if the economy can be fixed in one afternoon or as if economic crisis caught him by surprise. Problems have been dragging for some time now.After reading the headline, the mental image I had of Mr. Xie was that of Bush after being informed of 9/11 attacks. “Minister, exports have been hijacked by global recession, and they are heading toward the economy, warning they will blow it up. Intelligence report says that the SSE and Heng Seng already collapsed”. Which made me laugh like a mad person, just to myself.”They told him he has to resolve an economic problem and that he’s the only one who could do so,” de Swinnen said.It sounds like a typical excuse of someone who found the conference utterly boring.

NWO TiM Geithner of the FED will probably be the choice. scary if he does get picked.http://mapper.nndb.com/start/?id=162983http://www.nndb.com/people/472/000162983/

Actually, the story behind the story is that a drunk Ph.D. student accidentally spilled tequila into a chemical vapor deposition machine, nearly ruining it. He flipped on the switch of the heater to boil off the evidence and voila! “Professor, you see, it was late in the lab and I had some tequila and…” “Manuel – no need to explain – BRILLIANT – sheer brilliance! Let’s assemble your Ph.D. committee tomorrow!”

I will tell you what happens when govt takes over any private business.govt of india have started many fertilizer companies in 1960 and result:they are grossly inefficient,they dont produce enough fertilizer and they dont give employment to 0.0001% of our population.Our govt owns most of the banks,biggest insurance companies,healthcare,road transport,railways,nuclear power,all research institutions everything.Still nothing have come out of it.Our country is still dirt poor.Maybe this is what going to happen in USA