Roubini – when are you gonna cash in like Greenspan & co ? Guess you have a conscience – Greenspan is the definition of UNETHICAL and Conflict of Interest

Agreed. A new year’s honours suggestion if you are reading this your majesty; strip Greenspan of knighthood and award to Roubini

Wacky wild seesaw seesaw seesaw, Oh my God!!!! total capitulation!!! The Fed prints 10 trillion dollars to save every buisness in the country and pays off everyones house out of desperation.It’s to the point of being very sureal and very boring! Why do the people that post here who are trying to game this thing and make a quick buck bore me to death?

Prof. Roubini is one of the best economists that the world has produced. Banerji is trying to save his reputation for being dead wrong, now giving us all the bull about timing. The millions of folks who have been led down the tubes should have been warned not 5 years ago but 10 years ago, then we would not have had the financial bubble growing so unmanageble as it has now become.According to Elliottwave theory, we are in a supercycle bear market which will see the world stocks sink another 30% from current levels, before retracing about around 10% and then stagnating for a few years, after which going down even further.Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, (wall street)Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.All the King’s horses, And all the King’s menCouldn’t put Humpty together again!

Remember the real casualties in this process: freedom and liberty. As I see this unfold I observe our behavior in the world especially in Iraq with the SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement)negotiations. I conclude the current global meltdown is not just about the money, it is about ‘full spectrum dominance’ of the Wolfowitz/Cheney/Bush Doctrine. Its a comical fallacy of the US trying to dominate the globe. Just look at the extortion we are conducting in Iraq. The US written SOFA, Status of Forces Agreement, is a document that supercedes any domestic constitution of the country we “occupy”. As the Iraqis balk at its signing, we simply ‘blackmail’ them by saying we will pull all support including schooling, utilities, food production, etc. If they don’t succumb to our military occupation we will return them to chaos, that we created by decimating their infrastructure in the first place. Watch closely, we scorched the earth, then threaten to walk away if we don’t get what we want. Is this liberty and freedom that we want to world to embrace?Like this comment? [yes] [no] (Score: 0 by 2 votes)

I still see no discussion of the consequences of this inflating on the chance of defaulting on the US debt. The market is moving with no regard to economic realities on the ground. How can one invest when the rules change on a weekly basis? This is all madness and cannot end well. I break with NR here. It will be much longer than 2 years. It will make the depression seem quaint.Soylent Green is made out of people!(just thought I would throw that in.)

More:10:00 a.m.Whirlpool posts lower profit, cuts 5,000 jobs

Another Rally Cry!Bank of England fears system breakdownMark-to-market losses for U.S. U.K. and euro-zone banks could be as high as $2.8 trillion, the Bank of England warned.

Previous Reader: “Consumer confidence tumbles to 38 in October, its lowest point ever, from 61.4 in September. Consumers’ expectations for the next six months are even bleaker, according to the Conference Board report.”Adding to that problem .. here’s a personal anecdote. Last night I got home and found my wife fuming because we had received a letter from a major credit card company that reduced our credit line. My wife was angry because our credit rating is good, and we have no deliquencies. But the letter implied indirectly that we were a credit risk. It took me a while to calm her down and explain that this nonsense is going on on a wide scale – the letter is mass produced to a huge number of card holders.Nevertheless, we are now cutting completely all new purchases on credit cards. Period. My wife is mad and fed up. Just think what that’s going to do to consumer spending trends.PeteCA

Is this rally for real?

Up here in Canada ——- we’re looking to hibernate with the polar bearsin a fetal position, while hugging our money (in a Canadian bank)and reading Roubini.Save money.

Professor, those folks are indeed pathetic. You are one of a kind regarding to your ability to think “unconventionally” (also means “with common sense”).But I have a problem with your suggested solution. Frankly, US doesn’t have what it takes to fix the economy without life style change. The most important thing now is for the new president to call for a frugal life style, to live within people’s means. Otherwise, we’ll be in a bubble economy forever.

Email making the rounds:BUSH’S RESIGNATION SPEECH>> The following ‘speech’ was written recently by an ordinary Maine-iac [a> resident of the People's Republic of Maine ]. While satirical in nature,> all> satire must have a basis in fact to be effective.> This is an excellent piece by a person who does not write for a living.>>> The speech George W. Bush might give:>>> Normally, I start these things out by saying ‘My Fellow Americans.’ Not> doing it this time.> If the polls are any indication, I don’t know who more than half of you> are> anymore.> I do know something terrible has happened, and that you’re really not> fellow Americans any longer.>> I’ll cut right to the chase here: I quit. Now before anyone gets all in a> lather about me quitting to avoid impeachment, or to avoid prosecution or> something, let me assure you:> There’s been no breaking of laws or impeachable offenses in this office.>>> The reason I’m quitting is simple. I’m fed up with you people.> I’m fed up because you have no understanding of what’s really going on in> the world.> Or of what’s going on in this once-great nation of ours.> And the majority of you are too damned lazy to do your homework and figure> it out.>> Let’s start local. You’ve been sold a bill of goods by politicians and the> news media.>>> Meanwhile, all you can do is whine about gas prices, and most of you are> too> damn stupid to realize that gas prices are high because there’s increased> demand in other parts of the world, and because a small handful of noisy> idiots are more worried about polar bears and beachfront property than> your> economic security.>> We face real threats in the world. Don’t give me this ‘blood for oil’> thing.> If I were trading blood for oil I would’ve already seized Iraq ‘s oil> fields> and let the rest of the country go to hell. And don’t give me this ‘Bush> Lied…People Died’ crap either. If I were th e liar you morons take me> for,> I could’ve easily had chemical weapons planted in Iraq so they could be> ‘discovered.’ Instead, I owned up to the fact that the intelligence was> faulty.>>> Let me remind you that the rest of the world thought Saddam had the goods,> same as me. Let me also remind you that regime change in Iraq was official> US policy before I came into office.> Some guy named ‘ Clinton ‘ established that policy. Bet you didn’t know> that, did you?>> Now some of you morons want to be led by a junior senator with no> understanding of foreign policy or economics, and this nitwit says we> should> attack Pakistan , a nuclear ally. And then he wants to go to Iran and make> peace with a terrorist who says he’s going to destroy us. While he’s doing> that, he wants to give Iraq to al Qaeda, Afghanistan to the Taliban,> Israel> to the Palestinians, and your money to the IRS so the govern ment can give> welfare to illegal aliens, who he will make into citizens, so they can> vote> to re-elect him. He also thinks it’s okay for Iran to have nuclear> weapons,> and we should stop our foreign aid to Israel . Did you sleep through high> school?>> You idiots need to understand that we face a unique enemy. Back during the> cold war, there were two major competing political and economic models> squaring off. We won that war, but we did so because fundamentally, the> Communists wanted to survive, just as we do. We were simply able to out> spend and out-tech them.>>> That’s not the case this time. The soldiers of our new enemy don’t care if> they survive. In fact, they want to die.> That’d be fine, as long as they weren’t also committed to taking as many> of> you with them as they can.> But they are.. They want to kill you, and the bastards are all over the> globe.>> You should be grateful that they haven’t gotten any more of us here in the> United States since September 11. But you’re not. That’s because you’ve> got> no idea how hard a small number of intelligence, military, law> enforcement,> and homeland security people have worked to make sure of that. When this> whole mess started, I warned you that this would be a long and difficult> fight. I’m disappointed how many of you people think a long and difficult> fight amounts to a single season of ‘Survivor.’>>> Instead, you’ve grown impatient. You’re incapable of seeing things through> the long lens of history, the way our enemies do. You think that wars> should> last a few months, a few years, tops.>> Making matters worse, you actively support those who help the enemy.> Every time you buy the New York Times, every time you send a donation to a> cut-and-run Democrat’s political campaign, well, dang it, you might just> as> well Fed Ex a grenade launcher to a Jihadist. It amounts to the same> thing.>> In this day and age, it’s easy enough to find the truth. It’s all over the> Internet It just isn’t on the pages of the New York Times, USA Today, or> on> NBC News. But even if it were, I doubt you’d be any smarter.> Most of you would rather watch American Idol or Dancing with Stars.>> I could say more about your expectations that the government will always> be> there to bail you out,> even if you’re too stupid to leave a city that’s below sea level and has a> hurricane approaching.>>> I could say more about your insane belief that government, not your own> wallet, is where the money comes from.> But I’ve come to the conclusion that were I to do so, it would sail right> over your heads.>> So I quit. I’m going back to Crawford. I’ve got an energy-efficient house> down there (Al Gore could only dream) and the capability to be fully> self-sufficient for years. No one ever heard of Crawford before I got> elected, and as soon as I’m done here pretty much no one will ever hear of> it again.> Maybe I’ll be lucky enough to die of old age before the last pillars of> America fall.>>> Oh, and by the way, Cheney’s quitting too. That means Pelosi is your new> President. You asked for it.> Watch what she does carefully, because I still have a glimmer of hope that> there are just enough of you remaining who are smart enough to turn this> thing around in 2008.>> So that’s it. God bless what’s left of America .>> Some of you know what I mean. The rest of you, kiss off.>> PS – You might want to start learning Farsi, and buy a Koran

“One senior Wall Street figure said: “He is clearly very bright and thoughtful when he is not shooting from the hip.”Shooting from the hip? It seems to me his premises are based on a deep understanding of economic fundamentals. More likely, it is the Wall Street figure, with the vested interest, who is shooting from the hip.

This sarcasm is not very sarcastic.

Wild optimism with nothing to back it up, looking longingly for a paternal figure for protection and security, exhortations toward patriotism and fear of God, unjust accusations against those who would tell the truth. The worth of the individual diminished as dire warnings of external threats abound. Innocent scapegoats punished as real villains escape any accountability.The stage is set and the curtain is about to rise on the transition of the United States being transformed from a free republic that was the envy of the world, to a model of corporate fascism too horrible to contemplate.

Perhaps the administrator would be kind enough to remove this post – partisan and the comments in the final line are inappropriate…

I’ll third that.

Just because someone may “shoot from the hip” doesn’t mean they can’t hit the target.

Oops, S&P now down 3 pts to 845. Toast.

Amen.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had improved moderately in September, fell to an all-time low in October. The Index now stands at 38.0 (1985=100), down from 61.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 41.9 from 61.1 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 35.5 from 61.5 in September. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households.Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers’ confidence. The decline in the Index (-23.4 points) is the third largest in the history of the series, and the lowest reading on record. In assessing current conditions, consumers rated the labor market and business conditions much less favorably, suggesting that the fourth quarter is off to a weaker start than the third quarter.Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions deteriorated sharply in October. Those saying business conditions are “bad” increased to 38.3 percent from 33.4 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “good” declined to 9.2 percent from 12.8 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also much more negative. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 37.2 percent from 32.2 percent in September, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 8.9 percent from 12.6 percent.”

People should take a look at Eric Janszen’s article at the link below. The major discussion is about the historic trends in deflation and inflation in the US economy.http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=57193#post57193However, I want to pick out a couple of lines from that article and highlight them here:Janszen: “That was the impetus for Bretton Woods after the war: don’t allow a repeat of competitive currency devaluations. because nations in a global depression that fight each other with currencies are soon fighting each other with guns. “Isn’t that exactly what’s happening now? We’re in a global economic crisis and nations are fighting each other with currency devaluations – or huge influxes of liquidity from central banks.That’s an interesting observation. Because I’ve been thinking lately that the current turmoil in the global economy could easily give rise to new political instability and wars. What do nations always fight about? Resources … access to food, goods and energy.Take a look at Russia’s situation right now – as a case in point. Russia is teetering on the brink of a complete collapse in their stock market. Yes, it’s true that the oligarchs borrowed too much money based on the collateral of rising share prices in Russia. But the original problem that caused all this trouble was imported from the West. It was not Russia’s fault that mortgages went bad in the USA, or that Lehman collapsed. So what does Putin do now? Well … if he doesn’t want to see his new energy-based empire collapse then he has to figure out a way to increase the price of oil and precious metals. What better way than through a crisis?Unfortunately, the same risk might also apply to the USA. Senator Dodd was on the air waves today talking about a possible “revolution” in the streets of America if credit does not improve. What do politicians do – when they want to distract people who are hungry and angry?PeteCA

Of course they hate you Dr Roubini. You exposed their hubris and pride.

It take’s some cheek for those who talked up the debt bubble to start whining about straight talkers like Rouibini.History will no doubt tell us when the downturn started but I think it was closer to Roubini’s idea than the continuing fiction that recession is about to begin.I have seen this “blame the messenger” meme emerge in the media in the last couple of days.Of course confidence is important, but it has been the obvious progressive failure of various parts of the financial system over the last couple of years that has caused the collapse of confidence, not people like Roubini.These problems have been building for years and should have been addressed years ago.We have created a rod for our backs by pandering to the finance sector and not allowing productivity related price reductions to occur in the housing industry.It has encouraged ruinous over investment in the construction industry and consequent overproduction in a market that lacked the income to sustain it.The belief that increased individual debt levels could sustain the consumption required and bring riches beyond the dreams of avarice to the finance sector was always a pie in the sky delusion.We must be able to come up with a a less destructive way to share the wealth created by technology and automation.

This is what the world needs per Brian Bloom.Columbus (OH) – Researchers at Ohio State University have accidentally discovered a new solar cell material capable of absorbing all of the sun’s visible light energy. The material is comprised of a hybrid of plastics, molybdenum and titanium. The team discovered it not only fluoresces (as most solar cells do), but also phosphoresces. Electrons in a phosphorescent state remain at a place where they can be “siphoned off” as electricity over 7 million times longer than those generated in a fluorescent state. This combination of materials also utilizes the entire visible spectrum of light energy, translating into a theoretical potential of almost 100% efficiency. Commercial products are still years away, but this foundational work may well pave the way for a truly renewable form of clean, global energy.

Senior wall street figure? Unnamed source, in politics these are used repeatedly to smear,obfuscate and deceive. I often wonder if they even exist. I suppose if Mr. Wall Street Senior Figure does exist, he is a coward not to use his name and be proven wrong, especially with his “silly” comment.Further, I have been able to view SOME of the videos &^%$# Bloomberg sucks (please provide a link to utube if someone has it, eternally grateful), I don’t think Prof Roubini is in any way even slightly mad professor looking… Why the press wants to portray him in this manner, I suppose is to minimize and diminish in some way what he says..because it sure doesn’t add to story. I hope his hide is thicker than mine.

How do you deal with critics who attack you with with clever appeals to emotional and prejudicial biases. The method used by the professor is hard to beat. He simply continues to be right and tell the truth. Stanley Fish wrote an excellent opinion in the NY Times about the current presidential campaigns of Obama vs. McCaine. In it he compares Obama to Jesus and McCaine to Satan. I highly recommend it to those who are tired of seeing the truth buried under a deluge of bullshit.

I have a tendency to agree with this point. It isn’t so much that we can’t fix it, it is the will that I don’t think we have at this point. I am appalled at the political rhetoric and denial of basic facts in the Presidential campaigns. From the candidates and the crowds. The idea that the government can some how blow the bubbles back up is ludicrous. This reflects the publics position. Both candidates want to lower taxes and raise spending, although effecting different segments of society, neither candidate has a true understanding of the underlying economic issues.This country’s economic growth and prosperity was based on the use of not only cheap energy but cheap labor and cheap, in relative terms, commodities. But we leveraged or indebted ourselves to maintain an unrealisticly high standard of living for many years. This got to extremes in the last 10 years and a really extreme blow off top between 2002 and 2007. This was done thru the fractional reserve and the NO reserve capital shadow banking system. It created way to many dollars chasing to little real value. But most people loved inflations upside. So trillions of dollars went into McMansions and expensive cars, and art and ……. stocks, oil and other commodity futures.As Stein said, something that can’t continue, stops, this stopped. An economic system based on consumption and inflation isn’t sustainable. And it reversed its course. First stocks peaked the first time in 2000, the housing peaked in 2005 and then the stock market peaked again in 2007 and most recently commodities. We are now in a deflationary environment. The bottom and new value (more realistic value) of everything has yet to be reached and won’t be for quite a while as we have yet to write down or revalue most of the debt created on unsustainable activities.Back to my original point, people got use to living way beyond a sustainable lifestyle. Yes, those on the fringes have been brought down and this is expanding towards Main Street but most people are still living beyond their means. This is possible because the government is supporting or trying to support the unsustainable by propping up the insolvent and fail institutions that helped perpetuate the bubbles. They think they can reinflate or at least prevent further deflation. This might be possible if human nature was taken out of the equation but it isn’t so we need to now over correct on the down side. This then gives value to the system and allows the beginnings of the next upward cycle. As far as I know, this is just how things work. And we are a long ways from this still.Still back to my point. We have a huge pension system that has for decades used unrealistic growth assumptions and are paying out benefits based on those unrealistic assumptions to a very large number of retirees who have been enabled to live beyond the systems carrying capacity. We have large numbers of families who bought McMansions a long way from where they work because they were relatively inexpensive, the money was inexpensive and fuel was cheap. Yet today and in the future they are unaffordable and will remain unaffordable unless some new extremely cheap energy is developed and made readily available in the very near future. When these things and more are finally rebalanced and the debts wiped out or restructured to reflect more realistic sustainable values, pension funds all over this country will be severely impacted and the standard of living of not only the retirees but everyone will have to be severely reduced. We will be forced by the reality of natural events of the physics of a system trying to attain balance to confront a new reality.All this will take time and a huge attitude adjustment. And it won’t be a straight road or an easy one as everyone will fight hard to sustain the unsustainable and their unsustainable lifestyles.

DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PLACE FROM YESTERDAY!! WE TAKE OUT SSO $26.97 AND WE GOT THE MUTHA OF ALL RALLIES COMIN!!!

They don’t have the guts and why should they, they’re a communist country who don’t mind their people living in total poverty so long as the regime is living large. This is why “free trade” with them was always a ruse we might as well go back to putting shackles on black people and call that capitalism too.

You won’t be missed.

Posted by Guest and probably praised by same guest, We could all post e-mail like this and in short order the site would be downgraded to junk status.

DOW +200 HERE WE COME!!!

Any chance you could provide a link to this? I’d like to pass this around.

Good idea, Guest! Watching these markets is like watching a tragi-comedy, but without the love story that makes you feel warm and fuzzy in the end…There are better uses of our time, such as those you noted. Now, I’m off to meditate!

DOW will finish +300 today!!! PARTY!!!

No volume

Hei Mashiachwhat’s up? I live in New York State: any calamity for the week-end I should be aware of? Thanks

I am just wondering how long it will gonna take to we see de crash of dollar ? Any guesses ?

IF YOU ARE A JEW, YOU HAVE TO BE WORRIED THE ANGRY MOB ARE COMING.STAI ATTENTO.

And some of you dorks were worried about my GW speech post??? Holy crap dude, leave the acid to your parents!

When you fart in the bathtub, the bubble always rises. When it gets to the top, it always pops. There’s your break out!!!AHAAHHAAHHAHAH

Short Sotheby’sPKB

Difference being is that our system of slavery is borne of American ignorance and a right wing propoganda machine vs. theirs is of an AK47 to the back of the head.

Interesting conundrum between deflation and increased gov borrowing pushing up the long end of the curve. Anybody see where the long end is headed? If deflation REALLY takes hold and the gov prints even more money, where will the long end go?30 year fixed rates are back up to 6.625% fixed today, so we aren’t far from 7.00%. That won’t help the housing market.

From the Onion:Nation’s Leading Alarmists Excited About Bird Fluand:Bush Orders Mass Bald Eagle Slaughter to Stop Spread of Bird Flu

Give up your right to protest or we slaughter you and in exchange we’ll let you go out to dinner. Is that someones idea of freedom?

Well, given that home prices have fallen so much, the interest rate on the mortgage is not as big a thorn as it was even 6 months ago. The lower prices fall, the less relevant the rate becomes as long as prices come down faster than rates.

I don’t have a clue as to exactly what research Ohio State is doing, but I’m sure that is commendable. However, I have worked in this field, specifically with pressure induced phosphorescence in materials. The fact that a material fluoresces or phosphoresces is actually detrimental to the overall process of creating electron flow. Both of these processes involve the excitation being taken to a point of generating photonic emissions. In fact phosphorescent materials utilize the “forbidden” energy state transitions which by definition decreases the intensity of any emissions. Overall, this is an indication that there is an inefficient excitation taking place as far a electron flow is concerned. True, the total energy converted may be high (all conversions are high if you include all the modalities of energy transformation), but that in no way implies that this material is efficient at converting photons into electrons! The only advantage I could see is that such a material would likely produce narrow band photonic emissions which could then be coupled to a “tuned” solar cell that would be quite efficient in that narrow band. More of a photon converter coupled to an electron generator configuration.

This post is directed to both StocksGoinGreen and Mashiach Ben Chana. It is not that I wish to discourage your passion, but I am asking you both to please consider restricting your use of capitalization to the first few words only (maybe the first eight or so words?) of your posts, then switch over to small case for the rest of what you have to say. This would allow us to identify instantly that it is you posting, whilst simultaneously making your posts easier to read. Personally, I do not call for anyone to be censored (outside real hate speech), and I look at every post as somebody “putting cookies on the table” that each of us can decide to partake of or not as we see fit – but the all caps truly does hurt the eyes of those of us no longer youngsters. Could we reach this compromise, perhaps? If not, I really will have to start skipping over your posts to avoid getting weary-eyed. Thank you both for seriously considering this proposed alternative, or something close to it.

yawn

AVERAGES HIDE A LOTTwo small two bedroom houses in Oakland, California:Address____________prior sale__prior date___recent sale___change5534 Adeline———–$640,000—–2005———-$459,000——–(29%)5343 Broadway Ter—-485,000—–2007———– 495,000———–2%Given that the peak was likely to have been in early/mid 2007, the first one is probably down 40% or more in total.The two houses are less than five miles away from each other. There are lots of similar examples.Ryskamp expressed surprise at the statistics claiming that Bay Area property was “only” down 20% or so. While he tends to shout in CAPS, he is also on topic with the current housing crisis.So we have a depression in lower income areas and the upper income areas haven’t noticed anything yet. It averages to a recession.

Is that your rule? Seems I don’t recall a rule book on here, though I may have missed it. But if not, thanks for trying to impose your will on the rest of us.

I’m in the same boat except I discovered Dr. Roubini early this year and I’m saved. I wish I had learned from him sooner, but am so grateful I discovered him just in time. If the Prof is Dr. Doom, the Baerji Dr. Wrong.I will return to my smiling fetal position now.

Siebert, First Lady of Finance, was interviewed on CNBC this morning regarding the QUADRILLION notional value of derivatives. Last number I saw published by the BIS was $770T as of 2006 and doesn’t include unreported derivatives contracts. How do we regulate them, make them illegal, keep the “events” controlled, etc.Answer: We can’t or we have a deflationary spiral of such mega proportions everything is worth zero. Controlling the growth of these contracts is even deflationary. Folks, we are so screwed. When people finally realize that the deflationary spiral is out of control, they will dump every paper asset they own, currencies will falter, and the stock market will plunge. Precious metals and real estate may be the last remaining assets.God Bless.

I guess it depends on how you define upper income areas. A realtor in the Philadelphia suburbs told me that anything above $500k was in a “dead zone.”More to your point, a few years ago I couldn’t believe all the equity I had built up in my house after only three or four years. So I went through tax records and found that the percentage appreciation I had in my house took decades to build up in the past. Of course I kept hearing how the appreciation was justified because the area was undervalued. Now I am hearing that we won’t fall that much because we never appreciated the way California did. It’s easy to look across the country and see a problem, but people can’t be honest about this issue in their own backyards.

told ya! Fed lowers 50 tomorrow and off to 1,000 the S&P goes!

I’m not the original poster, but I found this link on google…http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/39807/113/

With any luck we rally all week and I can liquidate it all. I’m out of this mess if I can recover some of my losses.

We will begin seeing dollar weakening as the Icelandic Banks’ CDS auctions draw nearer. CDS’ are priced in euros, so expect to see Euro strengthening/dollar weakening. Auctions set for Nov. 4, 5, 6th.

PPT in early to force panic buying during the last hour-will wonders never cease?

So lets see, your telling me the markets had already priced in a record drop in housing prices of OVER 16% and a record plunge to all-time lows in consumer confidence (with consumer spending being 2/3 of GDP)and that is why we are up 500 points right now???

It’s a buying panic in front of the Fed tomorrow!!!!! Sheeple being led to slaughter? We has still not tested the 839 low in the S&P yet…

Perhaps someone should go play in traffic. Find a busy street……

This huge volatility in stocks is unnerving – both to normal investors and pension funds. I doubt many of these people will trade it. However, big retirement funds like CALPERS might use any large relief rally to sell off a lot of stocks. See what happens at the end-of-day trade.PeteCA

Run for the hills! My father-in-law, who is in the car business just called me and told me the problems in stocks are over and I should put all my money back in the markets!!!

as to you sir, you may write in all caps – for continuity purposes, of course.

+600 BABY!!!! IT IS A MANIA!!!

LOLOL S&P up 7%!!! How unnatural can this get? That is almost the average return of stocks on an ANNUAL basis!!!!

For Roger.see this video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o“Because Laffer’s opinions are based on facts and since he is one of the few voices contradicting the bailouts now in progress around the world, it would be helpful to everyone to show where his opinions are wrong – if they are wrong. It does nothing to just throw general words around like “revisionist” or “crimes against humanity.”Unless some of us can say exactly where he is missing the boat, we should assume he may be right.”By Roger on 2008-10-28 13:27:08 (original comment By Roger on 2008-10-27 22:09:47)hlowe

Wouldn’t it be nice at a time such as this, that we would be made aware of a new technology that was both clean,efficient and portable worldwide and provide a mean of wealth generation for an energy starved world.This is my description of grace,unmerited favor.

Are fundamentals ever again going to have something to do with the markets? because they are terrible. The logic of supporting assets without supporting the fundamentals as the government has mostly done is lunacy.

Man, everyone and their mother is going to say tonight that “the bottom is in”

The argument is that all of this is priced in already. And I guess if the Fed is not going to shock markets tomorrow, this was the perfect opportunity to work off the EXTREME oversold condition present in the market

I think “they” are jsut trying to make Nouriel look silly for this yesterday:Bloomberg (October 27, 2008): Roubini Sees `Significant Downside Risk’ for Equities

Sir, your forecasting is brilliant, however re: “I am not a geek” … given you’re wardrobe choices and hair when not on TV (ex. at conferences and such), that is somewhat disputable .-Signed, a fellow geek (which is nothing to be ashamed of by the way !)

Consumer confidence at an all time low-the future looks bright! Dow up 10%. LOL.Seriously, this is a much better confirmation of the seriousness of this bear market than a 200 point rise would be. The depression has started in earnest.

Is that because central banks are run by Jews? The mafia happened to be Italian but did the FBI go after all Italians? I get tired of the anti-semetic manipulative card that gets played all the time. What happened in Nazi Germany was an absolute freak wacko occurence that will never happen again so relax.

Well according to N.R. and many others P/E ratios are still nowhere near where they should be historicaly given the extent of the credit crisis and horrid fundamentals going forward.

This was the opportunity for market makers who had to buy all the way down, to clear their inventory before month end. Once they clear all the junk they had to own, look out below!

Your right, this was not even a “90-90″ day! Be careful out there….

Uh! sorry, I mean 900pts!

I was looking at that NASDAQ chart… NYSE was 4:1 but still low volume, even below average for the week which has been lower volume than most.

There are levels of geekness usually related to the severity of Asperger’s syndrome (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asperger_syndrome). So even though NR may enjoy social interactions, he probably values his alone time more than the typical person. Regardless, definite geek tendencies.

Look! IT just keeps coming, another 1,000 points tommorow!4:24 p.m.Temple-Inland profit drops 92% on weak demand

Thank you for posting this!I’ve been following alternative farming practices for a while now (just a hobby), and I am most certain that the future will be no-till and grass-fed (only) livestock (much advance has been made here; good source of info at The Stockman Grass Farmer).I’m to the point that the next person that I encounter who promotes biofuels I’m going to pop! This kind of insanity is the ultimate!

10% swings in a bear market, regardless of direction, signify vast instability and a likely further meltdown.

Hmmm…while I was working for a troubled firm they actually came out and asked people to take their vacation time – said it was cheaper for them if we didn’t come to work.

Did I miss the memo? Was this “Opposite Day” on Wall Street? Does the market go up on bad news and go down on good news now? I wish someone would tell me about these things…

“an absolute freak wacko occurence that will never happen again”It’s a conviction such as this one that actually makes me fear that something similar *could* happen again. Even in this day and age. Doesn’t have to be Jewish-related. Rwanda, anyone?

No … Thank You MA! … Looking forward to Thursdays.

WELL DONE SGG!!! (I BELIEVE caps allowed for the first five words) Question: what does you charts say of the future beyond tomorrow and this week.

why work when we will be paid in depreciated dollars and taxed on what is left? it’s time to slow down, be prudent and enjoy what else life has to offer.sorry if that doesn’t sit will with foreign creditors. not all that sorry though.

That’s an interesting take.

Hasn’t geek in the financial world come to mean specifically those addicted to the pointless task of trying to predict the future by using computerized mathematical models for risk assessment or whatever.

I’m the one who asked for the no ALL caps. When it’s just a few words at the beginning, or just the whole beginning line, or just some scattered here and there, or even just not in every post, it’s way easier for me to read. I thank SSG very sincerely for accomodating my poor, old eyes. You rock, Goin Green!

I can’t decide whether to more accurately call him handsome or cute or sexy or just what, but I think I’m in love with his brawny brain.

I am definitely glad you got an ongoing spot on the site! I look forward to Thursdays.

10% daily swings means we can have a 30-40% crash soon.

you just freaked me out. i have been so focused on the day to day of the 29 crash for some odd reason lately that I have failed to realize the high to low was almost 90% in the DOW ! ? ! What ? ! ?Thanks for that. I just started to feel a little better for not putting part of my sister’s 401K back in play yesterday and it was only for a several month position anyways… I have had her in cash for two years. A little early but earning interest and skipping down 20% even from today’s close still suits me and her just fine…

Great Post Capone. That’s how I see it too!PKB

thanks PKB, unfortunately i am not into trading my position so much these days and flipping and really was emotionally tied to being short the cut tomorrow for 1,000 points in my face! so not one nickel was allocated to getting long today’s contrarian buy. real fun kind of knowing what is up (flow up on confidence disaster) and absorbing the punishment doing nothing about it… but i do see to some degree how it works through near paranoid interpretation of market events and movement.

Talk about collecting HARD data!!!!

Hey, were all in this together. Hope that my post was of service and not disservice – time will tell. I’m mostly in cash (like) stuff too…but how about that 17% move in GDX…I sure needed that.PKB

From NakedCapitalismDow Up 890 After Ten-Times Increase in Commercial Paper Sales

I seem to recall that Dr. Roubini recently warned of the possibility of a one-day crash of as much as 20%. Don’t remember if it was something he wrote, or something he said in one of these interviews.SWK

Bernanke, Roubini, and the Great HoudiniHere are some quotes from Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1996)by Charles Kindleberger, of issues that are being right now around the world.

Crisis management… is devoted to no management on the one hand, and to a host of miscellaneous devices on the other.No management is the remedy of those who think that the market is rational and can take care of itself; according to one formulation, it is healthy for the economy to go through the purgative fires of deflation and bankruptcy because these get rid of the mistakes of the boom.Among the miscellaneous devices are holidays, bank holidays, the issuance of scrip, guarantees of liabilities, issuance of government debt, deposit insurance, and the formation of special institutions like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation of 1932…”The lender of last resort…whether there should be one, who it should be, how it should operate… If the market is sure it will be saved by a lender of last resort, its self-reliance is weakened. On the other hand, one may choose to halt a panic for the sake of the system today, rather than worry about effects on incentives tomorrow. If there is a lender of last resort, however, whom should it save: insiders? outsider and insiders? or the solvent, if illiquid? But solvency depends upon the extent and duration of the panic. These are political questions … confronting the government with the neuralgic question of how much of a burden to put on the taxpayer….In a word, our conclusion is that money supply should be fixed over the long run but be elastic during short-run crisis. A lender of last resort should exist, but his presence should be doubted. For example, uncertainty about whether New York City would be helped, and by whom, may have proved just right in the long run, so long as help was finally provided, and so long as there was doubt right to the end as to whether it would be.This is a neat trick: always come to the rescue, in order to prevent needless deflation, but always leave it uncertain whether rescue will arrive in time or at all, so as to instill caution in other speculators, banks, cities, or countries. In Voltair’s Candide, the head of a general was cut off “to encourage the others.” What I am urging is that some sleight of hand, some trick with mirrors be found to “encourage” the others … because monetarist fundamentalism has such unhappy consequences for the economic system.

I’ll admit, this is the first time I connected the art of magic with economics.

and then the rooster returns back home sooner or latter. No free lunch.

Reading Mr Roubini is like reading the old economic classics before ideology took hold of the discipline, an intelectual pleasure. Thank you Professor for helping to save my savings ,giving me the tools to witness and prepare for these historical times, and rescue economics as a discipline.

It depended on how they were regulated.

yeah lots of people cashin on cnbc, barron’s, Roubini on bloomberg basically perhaps too many people… looking for it, expecting it. so what do you get in the casino? 10% up! i just wanted to bet on down after the cut and got a gosh darn (restraint) 1,000 points between the eyes in front of the son of a B … wine is good tonight

PKB thanks for passing along that very helpful link, most appreciated!

Did you notice the art of magic and illusion during the “”"BULL”"” market in the US. Wall Street illusion of depreciating the dollar from dollar index high of 120 ish to 80 while showing the sheeple new all time high nominal equity prices. This was something that would have impressed Houdini.Decrease currency = Increase nominal equity priceDecrease currency = Increase nominal equity priceDecrease currency = Increase nominal equity priceLong time followers of this blog surely remember these repetitive posts made while the illusion was still in effect on the sheeple…Higher equity prices kept the sheeple’s eyes occupied as they all had skin in the game through their 401Ks while they destroyed the currency, closed massive LBO deals, etc. Brilliant! Who wins and who loses. The sheeple lose and the illusionists WIN !

when is the best maximum opportunity to make money??when there is uncertainty..these days what could move stock mkts in a big way??an expectation of a rate cut..thats all to it, no highly theorized 5th wave, 3rd wave blah blahremember when napolean was defeated, who made the most gains??how he did it??classic example applied to “modern” situationmy 2cents?? the rate cut will materialised..reason?? its near election time, buy some more timelet Obama deals with it(my grammar sucks, im a non-native English speaker)

Capone, I find that those who have not truly earned their money are often unwilling to admit that catastrophic investment decisions are anything more than bad luck, bad timing, or bad management. Not errors of judgement. Not personal shortcoming. So if it’s not their fault, then there’s no lesson to be learned, and no need to adjust behavior. I think of it as the righteous redistribution of capital. Who knows where that $60 mil went, but the people who lost it will still never be cold, or hungry or without shelter, will they? You, on the other hand, should look for other employment…work for someone who deserves you.

Sure John McCain is short, but he’s no Napoleon. I knew Napoleon. I served with Napoleon. In fact, I am Napoleon.

erh.. Rothschild??

im *GUESSING…. flator a bit high*guessingdefinition;guessed, guess·ing, guess·esa. To predict (a result or an event) without sufficient information.b. To assume, presume, or assert (a fact) without sufficient information.2. To form a correct estimate or conjecture of: guessed the answer.3. To suppose; think: I guess he was wrong.1. To make an estimate or conjecture: We could only guess at her motives.2. To estimate or conjecture correctly.1. An act or instance of guessing.2. A conjecture arrived at by guessing.

I look forward to it. Congrats!

Amazing headlines for tonight.Hey OR, I hope you made a quick back today (or at least covered your costs) and are able to exit or rebalance your positions, if you didn’t change your mind already.

Major short squeeze, not very prophetic if you ask me. Pardon me, thought you were referring to Fairies, like in financial wizardry. Guess I’ve ignored all your previous ferries posts these past two years.

Are you still 100% in equities? Seems like a risky call.

“quatrains that rhyme”?Mashiach, do not listen to this person. I would rather like you to write in a limerick format. Thanks.

Some nice easy, even fun, and edifying reads are Once in Golconda and Only Yesterday. Also Galbraith’s book. That’s how I got started on this path a few years ago.

about that China should allow their currency to trade freely, that is what Peter Schiff writes in his book “Crash Proof”. He says that this would increase the value of the renminbi and allow the Chinese people to support their own economy. According to Schiff the Chinese people would themselves take over the role of the US market.My personal opinion is that the U.S. market is a over-hyped joke. It is what you get when you read too many economy-related article published by people whose interest is in talking up the U.S. market:-) I say this because the U.S. economy is not capable of supporting even its own car manufacturers, financial institutions or airlines – thus why the heck is it claimed that it is supporting the Chinese economy?Another issue is that China manufactures a large amount of low-tech products (clothing, plastic items of various types) which are sold all around the world: Europe, Latin America, Africa, etc. The U.S. market is only 300 million out of the 6 billion total market for these items.

A direct result of reading this blog has lead to various gun purchases by yours truly. Of course you cannot buy a gun and not read up on self-defense and take 8-24 hours of gun-based self-defense course training.Using a gun requires a subtle skill set (much like golf). For example, assuming that one has a license to carry a concealed weapon and if confronted by criminal holding a gun one must first have a gun, make a decision that one’s life is in immediate danger, and attempt to flee. Second if one cannot flee, one must be able to draw the concealed weapon within 1.5 seconds and plant two rounds mid-chest into the attacker. And three, one must know the legal idioms and procedures to be prepared to avoid the possibility of jail time!All of that aside, it is surprising relaxing to practice with a gun. It is difficult to put into words the pleasure derived from punching 45 cal holes through paper targets from various IDPA positions.

Gosh, Thank-you for saying so out loud, 18:23! Your kindness is First-class, too, and much appreciated. Maybe we’ll have a “let’s try to be gentle with one another” revolution?

Sorry, all. Thought I had figured out how to save you having to use the back button, but I must have goofed that part up.

I knew it was true. The onion doesn’t lie.

I guess that means “vacation time” at your company is unpaid? or paid at x percent of the normal salary?

in fact I think this sort of stuff has been going on for some time here.

in fact I think this sort of stuff has been going on for some time here.

as shown above. ahh, what would life be without some occasional moments of self-glorification:-)

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/CIA/Unwelcome_Truths_CTSG.html“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”H. L. Mencken”The enormous gap between what US leaders do in the world and what Americans think their leaders are doing is one of the great propaganda accomplishments of the dominant political mythology.”Michael Parenti”We have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population… Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. To do so, we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and daydreaming, and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives. We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world benefaction… We should cease to talk about vague and unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are then hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.”George Kennan, secret U.S. State Department memo, 1948″The U.S. record of war crimes has been, from the nineteenth century to the present, a largely invisible one, with no government, no political leaders, no military officials, no lower-level operatives held accountable for criminal actions… Anyone challenging this mythology is quickly marginalized, branded a traitor or Communist or terrorist or simply a lunatic beyond the pale of reasonable discussion.”Carl Boggs”Democracy is not about trust; it is about distrust. It is about accountability, exposure, open debate, critical challenge, and popular input and feedback from the citizenry. It is about responsible government. We have to get our fellow Americans to trust their leaders less and themselves more, trust their own questions and suspicions, and their own desire to know what is going on.”Michael Parenti”Television is altering the meaning of “being informed” by creating a species of information that might properly be called disinformation… Disinformation does not mean false information. It means misleading information – misplaced, irrelevant, fragmented or superficial information – information that creates the illusion of knowing something, but which in fact leads one away from knowing.”Neil Postman”What chiefly governs the [U.S.] military budget is the need to spend enormous sums of money in a useless way. The allegedly powerful Pentagon is simply a receptacle for wasteful expenditure, just as a city dump is the receptacle for the refuse of a city.”Walter Karp”From 1945 to 2003, the United States attempted to overthrow more than 40 foreign governments, and to crush more than 30 populist-nationalist movements fighting against intolerable regimes. In the process, the US bombed some 25 countries, caused the end of life for several million people, and condemned many millions more to a life of agony and despair.”William Blum”The price good people pay for their indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”Plato”With unfailing consistancy, U.S. intervention has been on the side of the rich and powerful of various nations at the expense of the poor and needy. Rather than strengthening democracies, U.S. leaders have overthrown numerous democratically elected governments or other populist regimes in dozens of countries … whenever these nations give evidence of putting the interests of their people ahead of the interests of multinational corporate interests.”Michael Parenti”Americans are too broadly underinformed to digest nuggets of information that seem to contradict what they know of the world … Instead, news channels prefer to feed Americans a constant stream of simplified information, all of which fits what they already know. That way they don’t have to devote more air time or newsprint space to explanations or further investigations… Politicians and the media have conspired to infantilize, to dumb down, the American public. At heart, politicians don’t believe that Americans can handle complex truths, and the news media, especially television news, basically agrees.”Tom Fenton, former CBS foreign correspondent”For ethics to matter to us, the happiness and suffering of others must matter to us.”Sam Harris”Media manipulation in the U.S. today is more efficient than it was in Nazi Germany, because here we have the pretense that we are getting all the information we want. That misconception prevents people from even looking for the truth.”Mark Crispin Miller”The crimes of the U.S. throughout the world have been systematic, constant, clinical, remorseless, and fully documented, but nobody talks about them.”Harold Pinter”What would have happened if millions of American and British people, struggling with coupons and lines at the gas stations, had learned that in 1942 Standard Oil of New Jersey [part of the Rockefeller empire] managers shipped the enemy’s fuel through neutral Switzerland and that the enemy was shipping Allied fuel? Suppose the public had discovered that the Chase Bank in Nazi-occupied Paris after Pearl Harbor was doing millions of dollars’ worth of business with the enemy with the full knowledge of the head office in Manhattan [the Rockefeller family among others]? Or that Ford trucks were being built for the German occupation troops in France with authorization from Dearbom, Michigan? Or that Colonel Sosthenes Behn, the head of the international American telephone conglomerate ITT, flew from New York to Madrid to Berne during the war to help improve Hitler’s communications systems and improve the robot bombs that devastated London? Or that ITT built the FockeWulfs that dropped bombs on British and American troops? Or that crucial bal1 bearings were shipped to Nazi-associated customers in Latin America with the collusion of the vice-chairman of the U.S. War Production Board in partnership with Goering’s cousin in Philadelphia when American forces were desperately short of them? Or that such arrangements were known about in Washington and either sanctioned or deliberately ignored?”Charles Higham, researcher, about U.S. – Nazi collaboration during WWII”One of the intentions of corporate-controlled media is to instill in people a sense of disempowerment, of immobilization and paralysis. Its outcome is to turn you into good consumers. It is to keep people isolated, to feel that there is no possibility for social change.”David Barsamian, journalist and publisher”The cost of being presented as a “responsible and serious candidate” by the media [is] usually to show fundamental agreement with the existing distribution of wealth and power.”Michael Lerner, philosopher, psychologist, authorhttp://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Media_control_propaganda/Media_Control.html”I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America.”Alexis de Tocqueville, 1805 – 1859, French political thinker and author of Democracy in America”The propaganda system allows the U.S. leadership to commit crimes without limit and with no suggestion of misbehavior or criminality; in fact, major war criminals like Henry Kissinger appear regularly on TV to comment on the crimes of the derivative butchers.”Edward S. Herman, political economist and authorhttp://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Corporate_Media/CorpMedia_ThreatDemocracy.html”If you want to know about the world and understand and educate yourself, you have to dig;dig up books and articles, read and find out for yourself.”John Stockwell, former CIA official and author”To accept opinions is to gain the good solid feeling of being correct without having to think.”C. Wright Mills – from the book The Power Elite”In a dictatorship, censorship in used; in a democracy, manipulation.”Ryszard Kapuscinski, journalist”As long as people are marginalized and distracted [they] have no way to organize or articulate their sentiments, or even know that others have these sentiments. People assume that they are the only people with a crazy idea in their heads. They never hear it from anywhere else. Nobody’s supposed to think that. … Since there’s no way to get together with other people who share or reinforce that view and help you articulate it, you feel like an oddity, an oddball. So you just stay on the side and you don’t pay any attention to what’s going on. You look at something else, like the Superbowl.”Noam Chomskyhttp://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Media/Media_Main_Page.html”The military budget is simply an enormous pork barrel of special privilege, the privileges taking the form of windfall profits, of no-risk profits and, most importantly, of enormous outlays of capital supplied by the Pentagon to arms contractors.”Walter Karp”The corporate grip on opinion in the United States is one of the wonders of the Western world. No First World country has ever managed to eliminate so entirely from its media all objectivity – much less dissent.”Gore Vidal, novelist and critic”I wouldn’t call it fascism exactly, but [an American] political system nominally controlled by an irresponsible, dumbed down electorate who are manipulated by dishonest, cynical, controlled mass media that dispense the propaganda of a corrupt political establishment can hardly be described as democracy either.”Edward ZehrThird World Traveler home page

Thanks for the link, Aghast. Covers quite a territory.

The Onion is in any case more reliable than this Messiah (=Mashiach).

PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL GO TO WAR WITH IRAN AROUND FEB TO APRIL 2009

My own prediction:MASHIACH BEN CHANA WILL DISAPPEAR FROM RGEMONITOR AROUND MAY 2009

Check out John Perkins who wrote a book called “Confessions of an Economic Hitman”. You can also see some interviews of him on Youtube. Factual, disturbing, chilling.

China has a capitalistic economy and people do their best to try to thrive1/2 government owned industry, massive soveriegn wealth funds, massive food and oil subsidies, artificialy pegged currency, when you speak out against the government you are imprisoned or killed. Capitalism????I’d be willing to bet anything that your’e one of the few profiting off of this ruse.

New thread

it is Chinas ECONOMY that is capitalistic – not its political system.You got heavy government subsidies for corporations in America as well, even long before this current crisis (either as tax breaks or outright payments). And in France and other European countries it is common for the government to own many large corporations. The artificialy pegged currency and massive sovereign wealth funds also exists in Middle Eastern oil rich countries.The only issue is being imprisoned or killed when you speak out against the government. But that has nothing to do with whether the economy is capitalistic or not. Capitalism does not necessarily equate democracy, nor does it necessarily equate respect for human rights (as U.S. behaviour has shown).

Nope…paid vacation time.

I love this -”Banerji questioned Roubini’s assumptions, said they were not based on mathematical models and dismissed his hunches as those of a Cassandra. At first, indeed, it seemed Roubini was wrong.”Hilarious. Cassandra was RIGHT, but people didn’t listen, so to dismiss someone as a Cassandra is to say ‘I’d rather not believe an unpopular truth.’ Roubini was a Cassandra.

You were lucky you did not run into his advice years ago. Because he was saying the same things for years. There were loads of economists screaming doom since the Nasdaq bubble, and what? Equities doubled in the period from 2003 to 2007. Timing is everything.