EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

RGE Conference Call on the Economic and Financial Outlook..and why the Treasury TARP bailout is flawed

On Wednesday this week I had a 90 minutes conference call with users of the RGE Monitor service where I presented my views on the current financial crisis and the US and global economic outlook; my presentation was followed by a Q&A session with the over 500 participants in this call.

The audio replay of this conference call is now available here (freely available to all free registered users of RGE); a written transcript of the conference call will also be available soon.

CNN Money provided a very short summary of the main points I made in my conference call (see also the recent commentary by Glenn Beck of CNN).

In the call I also presented my 10 step HOME plan to resolve the US financial crisis; details of this plan are available in a recent writing by me.

The Treasury plan (even in its current version agreed with Congress) is very poorly conceived and does not contain many of the key elements of a sound and efficient and fair rescue plan. Like in my 10 step HOME plan many other economists and commentators (Charles Calomiris, Raghu Rajan, Kotlikoff and Mehrling, Luigi Zingales, Martin Wolf, Barry Ritholtz, Chris Whalen and twenty others whose views have been featured this week in the RGE Monitor group blogs) have presented ideas that would have minimized the cost to the US taxpayer of a resolution of this financial crisis. It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.

Specifically, the Treasury plan does not formally provide senior preferred shares for the government in exchange for the government purchase of the toxic/illiquid assets of the financial institutions; so this rescue plan is a huge and massive bailout of the shareholders and the unsecured creditors of the firms; with $700 billion of taxpayer money the pockets of reckless bankers and investors have been made fatter under the fake argument that bailing out Wall Street was necessary to rescue Main Street from a severe recession. Instead, the restoration of the financial health of distressed financial firms could have been achieved with a cheaper and better use of public money.

Moreover, the plan does not address the need to recapitalize badly undercapitalized financial institutions: this could have been achieved via public injections of preferred shares into these firms; needed matching injections of Tier 1 capital by current shareholders to make sure that such shareholders take first tier loss in the presence of public recapitalization; suspension of dividends payments; conversion of some of the unsecured debt into equity (a debt for equity swap).

The plan also does not explicitly include an HOLC-style program to reduce across the board the debt burden of the distressed household sector; without such a component the debt overhang of the household sector will continue to depress consumption spending and will exacerbate the current economic recession.

Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown.

495 Responses to “RGE Conference Call on the Economic and Financial Outlook..and why the Treasury TARP bailout is flawed”

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:48 am

in fact it would have been better if a professional economist would have been consulted by congress. U.S.A. has a lot of potential because of the amount of innovation and openness in the economy and many other factors (ok some of those may not be as great as they used to). Unfortunately greed (for power or money) is like sand in the gears of even the best system.

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:50 am

@ Professor RoubiniI think a watershed was passed this week in (mis)management of the crisis, when you, hundreds of other economists and financial experts, and the American people finally drew a line in the sand and shouted to Congress, Paulson, Bernanke and Bush that the bailout was wrong and unacceptable.Congratulations and thanks for providing such clearsighted leadership in a time of crisis. It is far better to have no deal than a deal that further prejudices the strained public finances and taxpayer finances of a heavily indebted nation.The USA will have to make hard choices it has avoided too long. It cannot have endless, ever expanding wars; endless, ever expanding deficits; endless, ever expanding consumer indebtedness. Sound public policy that weighs the relative value of alternative outcomes and decides on the basis of public interest must be reasserted. That would comfort creditors and taxpayers alike.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:14 am

This unfolding drama is becoming much like a Greek TragedyAmid GOP revolt, bailout deal breaks downWASHINGTON – A Republican rebellion stalled government efforts Thursday to avoid economic meltdown, a chaotic turnaround that disrupted the choreography of an extraordinary White House meeting meant to show joint resolve from the president, the political parties and the presidential candidates. Instead, the summit broke up so bitterly that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson got on one knee before Democratic leaders in a theatrical attempt to salvage talks.

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:32 am

Brad Setser has a fascinating insight to offer in his newest post, Extraordinary Times:

In the last two weeks — if I am reading the Federal Reserves’ balance sheet data correctly — the Fed has:Increased “other loans” to the financial system by around $230 billion (from $23.56b to $262.34b);Increased its “other assets” by about $80b (from $98.67b to $183.89b);Increased the securities it lends out to dealers by $60b (from $117.3b to $190.5b);That works out to the provision of something like $370b of credit to the financial system in a two week period. And that is just what I saw on a cursory glance.The most that the IMF ever lent out to cash strapped emerging economies in a year?$30b, in the four quarters through September 1998 (i.e. the peak of the 97-98 crisis).The most the IMF ever lend out over two years?$40b, in the eight quarters through June 2003 (this covered crises in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Turkey)This is a very real crisis. The Fed’s balance tells a story of extraordinary stress. I never would have expected to see the Fed lent out these kinds of sums over such a short-period.

My response:

Excellent and timely, Brad. I’ve been speculating all week that the pressure being used on the Congress to pass the Paulson Plan is the threat of Fed illiquidity. As of two weeks ago, the Fed had lent out more than $600 billion of its $800 billion balance sheet Treasuries against crap MBS collateral.The Paulson Plan would have allowed the banks to unwind the repos putting the Treasuries back in the Fed, get cash for the crap MBS, and get more Treasuries from the issues financing the $700+ billion funding of the Plan. As a bonus, the Paulson mark-to-maturity price becomes the implicit Level 3 price for capitalisation of all the firms and banks in the system, giving them some breathing room to stay in business. Everyone wins except the poor American taxpayer.The Fed is very close to being illiquid. That is the fear factor we are seeing at work, and the reason no one will discuss why the bailout is needed – only emphasise the urgency.

GSMSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:41 am

We are about to witness massive monetization in the US. The turbo printers Ben alluded to back in his 2002 speech are readied. In order to keep the insolvent US financial system afloat with crap for dollars liquidity , the Fed will require a massive injection of funds (out of thin air) to keep its Ponzi finance schemes turning over for its Pigmen mates on Wall St.The alternative will be to allow large chunks of the US financial system collapse.This won’t be allowed to happen without all efforts exerted (think Hail Mary +kitchen sink). You could also throw into this mix an Executive Coup by Prez Decree along the lines of a “temporary measure to deal with exraordinary circumstrances threatening the survival of the Republic” yada yada…The US is insolvent. Its awesome debts dwarf it’s ability to honour those debts in this and several generations to come. There are only a few alternatives left open here;1)Take action that reduces the debt- paydown + stop borrowing.This will entail decades of reduced and much lower economic activity in the US.2)Reduce the VALUE of the debt, entailing DEvalueing the currency the debt is denominated in. Hyperinflation takes hold.3) Default on the debt- declare bankrupcy and work out a deal.Financial collapse- GD2.4)Try to muddle through until events overtake one’s ability to control the situation when the shtf…Outcome unknown but decidedly awful- chaos and possible societal collapse.Think protection everyone.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:57 am

thinking about the posts of GSM and London Banker above…would be nice to have a crystal ball to peek into the future. Even though it looks like this can be really bad, it is not always a given. Besides I never lived through the collapse of an empire before so such a prospect feels a bit surreal.So what exactly could happen (on the grassroot level) if the Fed becomes illiquid?

Wild BillSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:02 am

Fellow bloggers,I wrote to my senators and House Rep. and told them in no uncertain terms, that my vote was contingent on them being opposed to the bailout. Let’s keep the pressure on until this bailout is not only dead, but will not be revived in any similar form. I urge you to use your collective personal contacts to urge everyone you know to contact your representatives. You have more power than you might think. While you are at it, you might consider adding your voices to those of us who are demanding the resignation of Paulson and Bernanke. Who the Hell do they think they are? Who the Hell do they think we are? The sharks at this feeding frenzy are beginning to turn on each other. There is blood in the water and blood in my eye. Join those of us whose rage has reached the tipping point. I have four beautiful children and four wonderful grandchildren. I will do everything in my power to protect their future. Let’s come together and strangle the gargoyles that threaten us. The parasite load has become too great to tolerate any further. Now it is time to marshall our collective rage and debride the gangrenous tissue so that healing can begin.

Wolf in the WildsSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:26 am

Well, Bernanke is an economist.. but he is using the US Economy as a great experiment for his Depression economic thesis. Not good.

Wolf in the WildsSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:29 am

I agree. And that is terrifying for anyone holding onto the USD. Remember that it is the Federal Reserves assets that back the value of the dollar. And if the Federal Reserve is insolvent, well… lets not go there for now.

Jason BSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:32 am

It seems that republicans, or a contigent of them supporting McCain, are stalling the negotiations on the package long enough to keep McCain out of the debate. Once the debate deadline is passed, expect the bailout to go through.In the medium run, it will make no difference. As already stated, $700B is only enough to bail out the banks insolvency and refund the repos to the fed. Not enough to recapitalize the banks.In the long run, the US is insolvent.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:48 am

“awful- chaos and possible societal collapse”Perhaps that was already expected? And therefore this crisis is the reason(?) for what is described here:Why is a U.S. Army brigade being assigned to the “Homeland”?

Several bloggers today have pointed to this obviously disturbing article from Army Times, which announces that “beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the [1st Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division] will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North” — “the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.” The article details:They’ll learn new skills, use some of the ones they acquired in the war zone and more than likely will not be shot at while doing any of it.They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control…The 1st BCT’s soldiers also will learn how to use “the first ever nonlethal package that the Army has fielded,” 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier said, referring to crowd and traffic control equipment and nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals without killing them…. …And as the Army Times notes, once this particular brigade completes its one-year assignment, “expectations are that another, as yet unnamed, active-duty brigade will take over and that the mission will be a permanent one.”… …The story of how Section 1076 became law vivifies how expanding government power is almost always the correct answer in Washington…. …

(full story at http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/09/24/army/index.html)

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:50 am

The U.S. government is currently in effect supporting its economy through the printing press. So it is not a “service economy” nor a “manufacturing economy” but a “printing press economy”.

GSMSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:51 am

If the Fed becomes illiquid (an impossibility at present), because it is backstopping the entire US Financial system, that system would cease to function. This means all US bond yields would skyrocket in an instant as debt paper collapses in value, banks would collapse after an unprecedented run on them (their is no safehaven as the FDIC collapses under the weight of insolvencies),the currency value collapses as its support is withdrawn internationally,commodities (priced in USD’s)would skyrocket- gold and oil go ballistic,local services halt as it becomes everyman for himself.Anarchy and Chaos.Surreal enough?

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:04 am

@ LB & @ Brad” As of two weeks ago, the Fed had lent out more than $600 billion of its $800 billion balance sheet Treasuries against crap MBS collateral. The Paulson Plan would have allowed the banks to unwind the repos putting the Treasuries back in the Fed, get cash for the crap MBS, and get more Treasuries from the issues financing the $700+ billion funding of the Plan. As a bonus, the Paulson mark-to-maturity price becomes the implicit Level 3 price for capitalization of all the firms and banks in the system, giving them some breathing room to stay in business.**The Fed is very close to being illiquid. That is the fear factor we are seeing at work, and the reason no one will discuss why the bailout is needed – only emphasize the urgency.**Even so, I still think that there is still something more urgent and far more horrific, that makes Ben and Hank need to demand ex-judicial review and autonomy – its not the USD700b per se, it.s the ‘ beyond the Law (US and International) ‘ that is of the Prime Importance to these two folks; immho.This Plan as we have seen is a fluff – so it must be the beyond the reach of the Law conditions that are to be focused on.Oh dear… are the American’s on the verge of revolt? How quaint and reassuring – Good show!Anyone else here notice that God doesn’t talk to George much any more?Ho hum

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:18 am

Speaking of good questions:Why is anyone still listening to Paulson and Bernanke?”We were told less than six weeks ago by the Congressional Budget Office that the taxpayers may have to spend up to $25 billion dollars bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke assured us that beyond that, all was well.”"Given the economics … and the government’s lack of credibility to date, the real costs will now clearly run into the high trillions.”@ http://www.mises.org/story/3117Seems to be a good question.Ho hum

YankeeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:41 am

Peter – unfortunately, lots of Congress is still listening. I am so ashamed that we elected these people. With only a few exceptions e.g. R Paul), we should VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS – ALL. If we do not we deserve what we get….

JomosSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:50 am

OK, that’s it time to purchase a freezer and load up on food stock today. Back to the basics survival.Good show….tata !

kilgoresSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:52 am

@ London Banker:I don’t think there is any cause for celebration here, because I see no “sound public policy.” While it may be true, as Dr. Roubini says, that “the Treasury plan (even in its current version agreed with Congress) is very poorly conceived and does not contain many of the key elements of a sound and efficient and fair rescue plan,” those Republican House members who have objected to the plan have proposed no alternative plan, much less a workable, constructive plan along the lines of what Dr. Roubini has proposed.Simply doing nothing is colossally irresponsible. It appears the political and ideological polarization in this country has reached a terrible crescendo that may come to represent one of the greatest failures of representative government in history. When a society fails to make the hard choices confronting it, the pain of any ensuing consequences is well deserved.SWK

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:59 am

@ SWKI am certainly NOT celebrating what is happening, but I am glad to see the US taxpayers and electorate finally recognising and acting on their obligation as citizens to limit the scope of harm done in their name. About time, even if on this occasion it is self-interested.We are witnessing great events. One person standing for justice and truth can make a difference in these times.Professor Roubini has made a difference. I congratulate and thank him for it, but I don’t celebrate the circumstances that occasion it.

GaborSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:07 am

London Banker, have you taken a look at the FED most recent Balance sheet.I cant understand it well, but the drawdown in T Bills and Notes has actually stopped, seems like they have financed about an extra 203 bn dollar lending last week directly from “U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account”, which I dont know what means and from “Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks”.What do these sources mean?

kilgoresSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:07 am

Understood, LB. Being an eternal optimist myself — an odd characteristic for a lawyer, I’ll concede — I like to think that in this crisis Americans may yet find a means for their own future redemption.I always respect, and very much appreciate, your thoughtful comments.SWK

fedwatcherSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:08 am

I have written many emails to my Congresswoman and my two senators regarding the “crowning” of King Paulson.Remember, when you are on the hook to your banker for $10,000.00, he has you by the short hairs.BUT, when you are on the hook for $10,000,000,000,000.00, YOU HAVE HIM!!!They, have to wait for us to restructure on OUR TERMS!There should be no PANIC. It is not necessary.The take-down of WaMu was done on a Thursday rather than a Friday to SCARE Congress into submission.But, not all Congresspeople are so afraid of the sh*t being shoveled out by Hank, Ben, and George to bend over.Tell your represenatives to have BACKBONE. They have the power. And do not have to “bend over” to Hank, Ben, and George, who are people totally lacking in backbone.

MedicSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:16 am

Below is the email I sent out yesterday to my senators and representatives:To my current representatives in the US Congress;I would like to implore all of you to consider other options for the current economic situation. The current proposal forwarded by the Bush Administration is so flawed and goes so far to help those who are responsible for the disaster we face that I can hardly stand it. I would like to suggest that you all read up and find any other options that would actually help the taxpayers instead of the corporate bastards who have brought this mess down on all of us.I PROMISE THIS TO ALL OF YOU:IF YOU VOTE (AND I AM PAYING ATTENTION!) FOR THIS BAILOUT BILL, I WILL MAKE IT MY SOLE PURPOSE IN LIFE TO SEE TO IT THAT YOU WON’T GRACE THE HALLS OF CONGRESS AGAIN!!!!!This bill is a disgusting payoff to the one group who deserves none. I would rather let the whole house of cards come down than see the unthinkable – that these greedy, unapologetic, rich and comfortable corporate entities get away with what they have done.WE SHOULD NOT BE GIVING THEM MONEY – WE SHOULD BE PROSECUTING THEM FOR CRIMES AGAINST THE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES!!!!!!Do I sound angry? Do you doubt how I feel? I am politically motivated and don’t belong to either party – but I will write to every editor of every paper in the state if I have to and I will talk to every soul who will listen until I convince them that you have betrayed us all if you vote for this!I implore you to represent the people who elected you and DO NOT VOTE FOR THIS BILL!!!!

GaborSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:17 am

Thinking it further.I believe it wouldnt be the FED who became illiquid. It doesnt make sense IMHO.I believe when those repos expire and the counterparty banks wont be able to deliver the contract (pay back the money), the FED has to force them into bankruptcy. I dont know american law but can it be correct.Moreover an interesting piece can be read herehttp://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_&_Finance/Investments/ETFs_(A_to_Z)/ETFs_S/threadview?bn=45991&tid=58014&mid=58014according to which last week the FED has bailed out Citibank which had 138 bn outstanding to Lehman.

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:27 am

The respect and appreciation are mutual. Truce. In these times, we have to collaborate, using all our talents and good will.

Free TibetSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:31 am

Please expand on that second paragraph. I want to understand the mechanism.Bad bank has already pledged junk for treasuries at 15% discount. How is it possible that bad bank can repo that junk unless Treasury is willing to buy atI understand how Treasury purchase price becomes basis for accounting. Voila. That alone should do the trick. Except that is effectively what Japan did 18 yrs. ago. I understand also how taxpayer borrows – principally from offshore sources – plunging deeper into fiscal abyss creating instability in fx markets, inflation, and eventually has to make up the difference between market and hold-to-maturity prices + interest. I’m pretty sure I’ve got that right.Which is why this whole plan can’t work. Borrowing to “recapitalize” (capital comes from equity not debt) these banks only pushes the problem down the road where it becomes a bigger problem.No?

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:34 am

best alternative plan is by Hussman – gives even the mathematics of whyhttp://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080922.htm

Free TibetSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:36 am

I lost part of my post. Should have read..Bad bank has already pledged junk for treasuries at 15% discount. How is it possible that bad bank can repo that junk unless Treasury is willing to buy at

Free TibetSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:41 am

Now I know. You can’t us less than symbol here.It only works if Treasury price comes at less than 15% discount at a time that market prices reflect approx 80% discounts.

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:45 am

The Paulson Plan would have allowed the banks to unwind the repos putting the Treasuries back in the Fed, get cash for the crap MBS, and get more Treasuries from the issues financing the $700+ billion funding of the Plan.Apologies. The sentence was a bit dense and needs unpacking into components.The TCLF and other facilities allow banks to repo MBS for Treasuries. The banks get the Treasuries from the Fed, and the Fed gets the MBS at 85 percent of agreed valuation as collateral for the repo. When the repo unwinds, the banks redeliver the Treasuries into the Fed and the Fed redelivers the MBS to the banks.Once the banks have the MBS back, they can sell it to Paulson at mark-to-maturity prices – which may be more/less/same as the value the MBS served as collateral. We don’t know the valuation model, but Bernanke seemed to indicate it would be on the generous side.To finance the cash for the MBS purchases, the Treasury would have to issue $700+ billion of new Treasuries, which replace those redelivered to the Fed in the market to ensure stable supply of Treasuries in the credit markets.

P1AQLSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:46 am

ROOT CAUSE LAID BAREhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ax3vfya_Vtdo&refer=home

In August 2004, Moody’s Corp. unveiled a new credit-rating model that Wall Street banks used to sow the seeds of their own demise. The formula allowed securities firms to sell more top-rated, subprime mortgage-backed bonds than ever before.A week later, Standard & Poor’s moved to revise its own methods. An S&P executive urged colleagues to adjust rating requirements for securities backed by commercial properties because of the “threat of losing deals.”…Wall Street underwrote $3.2 trillion of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes from 2002 to 2007. Investment banks packaged much of that debt into investment pools that won AAA ratings, the gold standard, from New York-based Moody’s and S&P. Flawed grades on securities that later turned to junk now lie at the root of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, says economist Joseph Stiglitz.`Would Have Stopped Flow’“Without these AAA ratings, that would have stopped the flow of money,” says Stiglitz, 65, a professor at Columbia University in New York who won the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his analysis of markets with asymmetric information. S&P and Moody’s “were trying to please clients,” he said.

Moody’s and S&P, we will see you in HELL.P1AQL.

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:49 am

GSM:There are other alternatives! I agree that danger is coming, but it’s also a time of great opportunity.Take heed, everyone, of JPM’s buyout of WAMU last night. Say what you will of JPM, but that was an example of preparation, cool-headed thinking, and excellent execution. Board member seat at the NYFed didn’t hurt, either ;) The tectonic plates are in motion. Most of the problems we face are of our own making, and now we’re seeing the consequences very clearly. And we are learning.So let’s keep the heat on to kill this dumb bailout, and then let’s turn the laser beam onto the “what’s next for the economy” question.We’re going to cut some spending, some sacred cows are going to get sacrificed, our standard of living is going to change (not fall, but change) and we’re going to find new ways to generate wealth without trashing the planet. Balance will be restored if we all pay attention, do some creative thinking, and improve our capacity and willingness to cooperate. Look how much we have all learned in this past year!We can do this. Best regards to all.

Free TibetSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:04 am

“…those Republican House members who have objected to the plan have proposed no alternative plan”Actually, they did. It had something to do with buying even more CDS’s. A perfectly terrible idea.

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:10 am

Call To Action! Everyone, Join the Battle!The bailout is showing cracks, but remember, we’re facing the most powerful players on the planet.Politics is a tug of war between the powerful and everyone else. Every able-bodied person must grab the rope, and pull on it for all you’re worth!Call your Congressional representatives. Do it now, and leave a powerful impression.Suggested script:I’m a voter, and your constituent.I oppose the bailout for Wall StreetI will be voting this fallI am following this issue closelyMay I have your name so I know who I spoke with?If you’ve not called yet, please make this a priority. This is crunch time.If you’ve already called, you know how easy it is to do. You are urgently needed. Call once more!The Adversary has every advantage except … numbers! All of us must Fight!Concentrate your firepower where it’ll do the most good.Grab that rope, and PULL!Grab that rope, and PULL!Grab that rope, and PULL!

P1AQLSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:13 am

Yes Medic, after I get my congressman to vote for the $700 Billion.I am surprised Hank went down on only one knee. Bankers are known to roll on the floor to get a deal done. Since this deal is in national interest to prevent a effective default of the US, if he needs to do that he should even do that.No matter what happens I respect Ben and Hank’s courage. They will not let the US walk away from her obligations.P1AQL.

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:13 am

Hey LB,A great deal of the repos have more to do with overnight univested cash. There are typically 3rd party’s on your big money repos. (MFs, PFs, etc…)Thus the term, “tri-party repos”Miss America

JPSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:14 am

To the Honorable Barney Frank,Please do not support the $700 billion bailout.Credit is still available for QUALIFIED borowers, including small businesses and individuals. Transferring these “bad loans” off of the balance sheets of the vary companies that created them and placing them on the government’s balance sheet is not a solution to the underlying problem of insolvency due to over-leverage.Our leadership in Washington should consider 1) restoring the uptick rule with short selling and 2) making naked shorting illegal and punishable by jail time and steep fines (perhaps the value of the naked short trasnaction will be adequate?)As a citizen, I expect our leadership in Washington to better serve the people by:- balancing the federal budget,- reducing the influence of special interest groups,- requiring the governement to publish clear and consise financial statements that include the NPV of future expenditures for social security, medicare, and other programs,- put the greater good of our nation and its future FIRST.Respectfully yours,JP, CFA

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:22 am

If they took down WAMU to scare us, I’d say it had exactly the opposite impact. The FDIC and OTS folded WAMU into JPM as quietly and as effectively as it could be done.Government did the job, and did it well. I listened to the conference call last night from JPM explaining the terms of the buyout. The market worked well, and it did its work in the framework of rules that were written well, and implemented well, under the appropriate supervision of the Government.No bailout was required. The FDIC didn’t spend a dime of taxpayer money.Repeat: No bailout was necessary. The people that invested in the stocks and bonds of WAMU were wiped out, completely. Their unwise investments were wiped out. Their unwise management was fired. The public benefited from the orderly transition of the deposit-base from a poorly-managed bank to a somewhat better-managed bank.I’m not going to praise JPM too much; after all, they were part of the problem. They just happen to adapt a bit faster.And the game, above all, is about how fast you adapt.When will Congress start adapting? As soon as each of you pick up the phone and demonstrate that the behavior of the past will not survive beyond this next election.Congress is eagerly awaiting your phone call.

P1AQLSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:30 am

You left out just one small fact. Fed becomes illiquid when the planet runs out of chlorophyll and cellulose. The Greenback requires very little ya know. And a few carrier battle groups; we’ve got those.P1AQL.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:37 am

What do you mean by “irresponsible”? It all depends on who you respond (the root of “responsible”) to, doesn’t it?When in doubt, do nothing. Do it right (with hearings, discussion of alternatives, etc.) or let the chips fall where they may.By bailing out the banks, it would mean that we respond to their needs. But it would be very hard on taxpayers for many years. I like the status-quo (with bank failures) better than that.

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:42 am

Suggestions for sound bank to relocate cashI have a substantial amount of cash which is earmarked for a house downpayment after this mess runs its course. The funds are currently at Wachovia, which I gather is in bad shape. Even if FDIC doesn’t run out of money, I’d rather have this in an institution which is in reasonably good health. I’m in the VA/DC area. Any suggestions?

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:44 am

How can the Fed be illiquid? As Bernanke wrote, all they have to do is print. They can expand the asset side of their balance sheet as much as they want, with no effort.They are finally printing. They should have printed a year ago, rather than sterilizing their gifts to banks by withdrawing liquidity from the economy. This does spread the pain to holders of US Dollars. As a normal guy with a mortgage, this benefits me more than Paulson’s sneaky plan to make me pay for all the banks’ problems.Bernanke prefers banks to people, that’s clear by his actions, even though he comes across well in an interview. THAT is why he and Paulson should resign. We need financial leaders who work for us.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:47 am

What was that? The President’s urgent press conference at 9:35AM lasted maybe 1 minute and said pretty much nothing. He basically repeated the obvious.

One-Eyed FionaSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:48 am

Yes, absolu-f’ing-lutely, OuterB. They are stunned by Round 1 because they were expecting the usual rollover; but now they will get more serious. If I were as cynical as Gore Vidal, I might even suspect a proxy military action against us in the form of a “terrorist event” in the middle of all this to scare us back to the sheeple-pen. So be wise to any possibility. (Paulson’s “bended-knee” was comical — a literally and figuratively melodramatic gesture in this play. But all it shows is that they aren’t really worried…at least not yet.) Anyway, everyone, please keep writing & calling. My guess is there will try to drive it home over the weekend while we’re not looking.You might consider adding to the script which OuterB provided above Roubini’s admonishment that “It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.” I also noticed that a petition of academic economists against the bailout plan has been published by the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business at the following link: http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/mortgage_protest.htm (Not sure of the creds of this document, however, and Dr. Roubini’s name doesn’t appear on it)You’ve knocked some blocks out of this Ponzi pyramid that you originally were enslaved to build. Good luck!Cheers,One-Eyed Fiona

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:00 am

Very insightful, Artichoke. They have the option to inject capital at any layer of the financial pyramid they choose, from consumer or small-business person upward. They could choose any sector of the economy, from RE to Ag to Mfg to Professional Services. What did they choose? IB. Every time, we elect to re-invigorate a sector of the economy that has demonstrated beyond any doubt that it no longer serves a useful purpose. All the players have exited or substantially reduced operations in that area of the economy.If I may be permitted, Artichoke, I’d like to repeat your thesis:”We need financial leaders that work for us”.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:03 am

McCain made a substantive proposal, one that is clearly better (for the people) than any version of the Paulson proposal.McCain was doing his job, being Presidential. Obama thought he could handle several things at once. McCain knew that at “this moment”, only one thing deserved undivided attention.Now that’s an American hero!

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:08 am

Yes that’s it exactly. Good thing we figured it out in time, otherwise we would be stuck with Paulson’s preferred consequences by now.There are some still Americans, and friends overseas, who aren’t just lumps glued to a TV set.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:10 am

If they vote right, we should vote them back in. They may need incentive to do the right thing, and for those that do, our votes are that incentive.

One-Eyed FionaSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:14 am

@OuterBeltway Here’s another letter I sent this morning. I re-worded some of Dr. Roubini’s reasons”To the Honorable :As a concerned citizen I am writing you again to make sure you are aware of my opposition to Treasury Secretary Paulson’s $700 billion plan to buy bad investments, even in the modified form the panel is working on at this time.A number of concerns should be addressed if this plan is to be given any consideration:1) The rush to pass this legislation is itself alarming and I would urge that no enabling legislation be passed that is not subject to retrospective review.2) Additionally, there are a great number of very prominent economists (most of them academics in major universities) who oppose the bailout plan in its current form and who have excellent suggestions, and — in stark contrast to the obvious conflict of interest which engulfs Secretary Paulson’s position vis-a-vis this plan — most of these economists were probably not paid by lobbyists to draft their suggestions.3) There are also those prominent economists who doubt the usefulness or need of the plan even in a modified form (I happen to agree with that group). It is an absolute disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.4) The Treasury plan does not formally provide senior preferred shares for the government in exchange for the taxpayer’s buying of the bad/illiquid assets of these reckless financial institutions. So this rescue plan is a huge and massive bailout of the shareholders and the unsecured creditors (bondholders) of the firms.5) The bailout plan does not address the need to recapitalize severely undercapitalized financial institutions (which could have been achieved by public injections of preferred shares into these firms).6) The plan also does not explicitly include an HOLC-style program to reduce the overall debt of the distressed household sector; but without addressing this issue, the current economic recession will surely worsen.The arrogance of the bailout plan — a 3-page letter asking for $700 billion and supreme unchallengeable power about how to spend it! — can only be the result of a total (economic and societal) disconnection between the tiny coterie of the rich and the very large remaining citizenry. Better to do nothing than not take the time to study real alternatives, and develop a sound approach to restore the confidence in U.S. economic system. Without this, we are again avoiding our responsibilities and continuing on the path which led to this sad situation in the first place.Respectfully,

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:15 am

Hello all,Miss America here.Let me first apologize for not being able to get my article through on MSNBC. (the article that called into question Paulson and his intentions) My guy tried… but he was stonewalled by the business editor when it came to: “who is this Hartmann guy”. They liked it, but had similar questions sparked by “old reliable” sources that they were going to go with instead. (Even though their stories Monday/Tuesday weren’t questioning exactly the same thing! …but now are.)Anyway, thank you all for your help. If nothing else, you all sparked some great collective thought. For your enjoyment, here is the submission: (some of you may notice your contributions?)(p.s. On the London Banker sight, I will post a business plan that I put together back at the beginning of the year. Had a proposal like this one been taken up at the time, we might be able to paint a better picture of where the definable market stress is/was coming from, and be better suited to fix it based on transparent knowledge.)Thanks again, Miss AmericaAbsolute Power Corrupts Absolutely! – It’s no longer just a cliché?Let me first start with a quote of irrelevance: “What does any of this have to do with the price of tea in China?”I, like many other Americans, am terrified by what is taking place in our current economy. The headlines have been filled with the catastrophic fallout of a financial system that is teetering on the edge of implosion.My fear, however, is not based on which direction the market goes. Up, down, sideways… or fear of inflation, deflation, stagflation, etc… only time will tell!My fear is that the people we now have working on the solution for this crisis, are the same people that didn’t see this crisis coming! With the current decisions being made, we have to ask some important questions. If these “leaders” couldn’t see the magnitude of what we are dealing with, what makes them qualified to offer a solution? In addition, when did “Get it done fast, with little or no oversight/scrutiny” become a prudent financial plan?In addition to calling their qualifications into question, I believe there is a dangerous conflict-of-interest that exists. At this moment, a handful of political appointees in consort with private banks and financial institutions are making these decisions for the whole country (and global financial community). Unfortunately, these appointees have a long history with, and arise from, the financial industry. Thus, a reasonable person must ask: “Do these policy makers have a conflict of interest that favors financial businesses over the taxpayer”? Past behavior suggest that such a conflict-of-interest does exist. (In basic theory there is an implicit danger of having these “like minds” put together a plan of relief, without the scrutiny of obtuse minds that have the ability to see potentially unforeseen variables and domino effects from their actions?)First and foremost, the taxpayer should be at the heart of any plan! We must champion the perspective of the tax paying people of this country, who trusted the fiduciaries of our public trust and treasure, who now have usurped power and control of a democratic system to bail out crony colleagues and “like minded” associates. The size and scope of derivatives market alone, exceeds the cognitive grasp of most of the current people deciding its fate. (let alone the public) In the current global economy, the freeze of credit, growth of debt and violent unwind of leverage will leave us with an outcome that will be impossible to reasonably predict.We have seen the implosion of unintended consequences that have flowed from previous actions taken to improve our current crisis. To mitigate the downstream effects we need a call for an outside/independent committee of economically minded individuals. A “Butterfly Effect” committee is needed. We need to weigh these new plans/decisions in an open and transparent fashion by a panel of economic experts who have studied and ACCURATELY predicted the current solvency crisis as well as “Chaotic theory” minded economists, and your OODA loop practitioners. This oversight committee will also need to have indictment powers to maintain judicial legitimacy.Please help me get this message to congress, the American citizens, and the rest of the world. The concept of privatization of profits and socialization of losses is flawed. If we have learned anything, we should know that “a flawed correction” will only delay and/or compound the eventual error. Don’t we, as a country, deserver a better explanation before they reach into our pockets and to our present mountain of debt? We can not accept clichés like “it’s in the best interest of the public” without having a broader array of resources that understand the complexity of the situation, have a chance to evaluate it.The current manipulations in the financial “free” markets have transcended the realm of constitutional liberties and freedoms affecting all Americans, and all those people around the world who aspire to our ideals. By nature, the market is a living mechanism that is neither logical, nor rational. A parallel thought process is needed to both understand it and fix it.In short, it is a must that all plans see the scrutiny of the external public so that they can be given the chance to validate the authenticity of any such bailout and what they believe will be the endgame result of such bailouts. The public’s opinion so far has been deemed irrelevant. Much like the quote: “What does any of this have to do with the price of tea in China?” …this time, we need the external views of the public to determine that exact point!Just how will this affect the price of tea in China?The public is not irrelevant. We must have a chance to have a say in this greatest of matters. As an American with an investment in this country’s future, (my children) I offer my services free of charge.Rich Hartmannp.s. I come from a school of thought that believes: “don’t go to your boss (or the public) with a problem, unless you have a few suggestions for a solution.”I will forward you some of my thoughts along with some other individual’s ideas under a follow up email… but this is for the purpose of not overshadowing the importance of what I have stated above.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:17 am

they could just start printing bills with exponents on them. So instead of a “100 dollar bill” we have a “100 dollars to the 10th power bill”. It would save on the chlorophyll and cellulose.

JGUSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:18 am

You guys keep mentioning US tax payer as a whole uniform group, it is not for God’s sake! There are huge amount of people who live far beyond their means, who deserve to be punished just like those greedy wall street boys and girls. My dear professor, look into my eyes, look into the eyes of the 60% people who either rent (waiting to buy) or have paid off their mortgage, tell them that they should bail those irresponsible people out, they should get their mortgage modified, where is justice? where is fairness? Can we do something right for one time and let everybody learn the lesson to make the future a lot better?Your plan is worse than the Paulson plan. Let house prices fall to affordable level, let ruthless risk takers suffer whether they are on main street or wall street, they should all be punished, otherwise this country can learn no lesson, and it will continue to live beyond its means, and the eventually collapse will be far more astonishing.Stop use the band aid! Let it unravel.

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:23 am

From the people’s revolt of the past week I have gained new hope for my country. I thought that the country of my birth in the 1960′s was gone in a flood of consumerism, stupidity and evil. I have really wanted to move to a different country.Now I think this one might be worth staying in. Thank you, fellow Americans.

GMSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:23 am

It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.

London BankerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:23 am

@ MANot to get too technical here, but the Fed doesn’t do tri-party repo. What I expect does happen, though, is that the banks that repo MBS for Treasuries under the Fed credit facilities turn around and repo them for cash with the market through tri-party agents for liquidity.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:23 am

It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:23 am

It is a disgrace that no professional economist was consulted by Congress or invited to present his/her views at the Congressional hearings on the Treasury rescue plan.

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:25 am

Thank you for the quick reply. I just checked out their recent financial reports and they look to be in good shape.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:26 am

But how about the other root cause factors such as…-SEC allowing (back in 2004) Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan and Goldman to increae their leverage of up to 40 to 1.-Financial institutions peddling loans to anyone still alive.-etc

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:30 am

LB: We have passed a watershed. And let me tell you … everyone over here in the USA is talking about this issue – and everyone is upset! I haven’t seen the American people so riled up about an issue in a long, long time. I was in the cafeteria of my workplace yesterday – and people were talking about the bailout in an animated fashion. And yesterday I was over at my workout gym at lunchtime – and the same thing. People talking about the rescue. And I can tell you – folks here are getting extremely angry. I cannot rememeber the last time the American people have been so upset with their Government … we would probably have to go back to the era of the Vietnam war demonstrations to find a parallel to thsi. Mark my words – there is going to be huge fallout in public confidence from this event.PeteCA

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:42 am

In this bailout for financials as it stands, “ the Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time. That means,” says Rep. Ron Paul, “$700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.” This is a coup d’etat.This bailout is being sold as a vote of confidence in American corporations and in the United States government. But it is not. The bottom line is that it is a classic failure of a government that has been purposely altered at every turn since 1913.In perspective, it needs to be seen as a series of ongoing catastrophes. And it will continue if not stopped. The Federal Reserve banking cartel has swallowed Congress. Its policies led to the crash of 1929; it orchestrated the decline of American prosperity; the growth in taxes; the decrease in personal freedom; and massive inflation — all culminating in this single and most catastrophic financial failure in American history.If lower interest rates are part of the problem then the Fed lowers them more; if the dollar is trashing then it issues more dollars; if the government is $10 trillion in arrears then it provides more government debt; if moral hazard is destroying faith in the markets then it creates more by manipulating markets; if prices are unstable it exacerbates price stability. Worst of all, it enables monopoly by issuing bank credit to insiders and destroying competitors by withholding credit.These are monumental failures that face this once great nation, and the world sees it like that – China, Japan. Russia. There is nothing offered in this bailout that brings forth a vision of America pulling herself up by her bootstraps, rolling up her sleeves and putting her people back to work in an open market system. In terms of failure, America is at her lowest point.What happened? First, the government is handed over to private profiteers. Then, as the series of failures and bailouts worsen and deepen — Bear Stearns, then Freddie and Fannie, then AIG, then Merrill and Goldman and Morgan, Lehman — these profiteers come to the people’s representatives and TELL them what they have to do. If anybody is left that still thinks these financiers came and asked Congress for a plan, then they are not paying attention. Savers and wages earners and homeowners and the dollar, all have been sacrificed to prop up this financial house of cards and sustain its profits.But that wasn’t enough. These same people had to come back to Congress and say, you know what? Those other failures were nothing to the failure we bring to you now, which is not one bank, or two banks, but we are all failing. And, then, these kings of failure threw down their gauntlets: Just give us a blank check. We know what to do. Trust us.If America were a monarchy, the populace would have had the king’s head by now. Sometimes democracy gets in the way of action. But I expect that will be overridden when the people realize more and more that no one’s listening: when they realize that they have a private banking and treasury cartel of financiers with so many hands in the cookie jar that it broke, and that one of those whose hand is in the jar is in charge of the jar.And now, Congress wants to solve the problem by providing a new cookie jar, with more cookies. The people must say no.

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:44 am

Paulson Bailout proposal is not only wrong but it will kill the patient faster rather than healing. An abscess of a patient in the lung due to repeated heroin abuses (Wall street excesses by securitization and greedy behaviors) can not be treated with never ending morphine injection (more and more bailouts) at expenses of other patients (American public). The abscess should be excised boldly and decisively even it may be a painful treatment now for the patient and others. THe time has come we should not allow the irresponsible bailouts. Paulson and Bernanke should be fired and replaced by competant surgeons immediately.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:46 am

Collapse of WaMu and Other Banks at RiskAs we discuss the rescue bill here, – the collapse of WaMu is almost getting lost in the shuffle. But this is a huge event – the losses that must now be covered by the FDIC are enormous!I would like to direct readers’ attention to the following white paper written by Martin Weiss and Mike Larson. Martin Weiss runs an investment firm called “Money and Markets”, and he has been an outspoken critic of the debasement of the US dollar for a long time. He has also been a very good advocate for the rights of senior citizens, and a critic if the pile-up of debt in this country. Articles from M&M can be found at :www.moneyandmarkets.comHere is the white paper, which is well worth reading …www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/documents/Final-Bailout-White-Paper.pdfHere are a couple of quotes from that paper:”1479 US banks and 158 US thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $3.6 trillion”"Among those with $5 billion or more in assets, 61 banks and 25 thrifts are heavily exposed to nonperforming mortgages”The paper has a list at the end where readers can identify the banks and thrifts with the highest level of risk.In fairness to Martin Weiss and Mike Larson – they are not saying that ALL these banks will fail. But as we look at the collapse of WaMu this week, it is obvious that the FDIC will need a much larger infusion of cash from tghe US Gov’t to handle this crisis. All this extra money will need to be ADDED to the $700 billion rescue bill now being advocated by Mr Paulson.The total financial risk from this economic crisis is spiralling into trillions of dollars.Kudos to the folks at Money and Markets for a very well written white paper on this crisis!PeteCA————-

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:52 am

I think Dr. Noriel Roubini should march to Congress to give his service to our country. He is only one, that I know, has predicted precisely this crisis will occur more than 2 years ago. The United States has the best economist available for his service, but sadly our government and Congress are so blind and ignorant, and don’t know whom they should ask for help in this dire time.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:07 am

Today’s quotation question: Who said it, George Bush or Alexander Hamilton?”If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down.”

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:08 am

Rich: Sooner or later the mainstream financial media in America must also fall because of this crisis. Hopefully there will come a time when you won’t find these roadblocks. Nice try in attempting to make your voice heard! PeteCA

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:13 am

From Bloomberg this morning …——————————-China Banks Cut Currency Trading With Foreign LendersBy Judy Chen and Belinda CaoSept. 26 (Bloomberg) — China’s banks are limiting foreign- exchange transactions with U.S. and European financial companies on concern tighter global credit markets will cause more failures.Domestic banks are cutting trading with international firms in the interbank market, according to Zhuang Zhiqiang, a trader at Xiamen International Bank Co., which is partially owned by the Asian Development Bank. The move aims to control risks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. stunned domestic investors, said Zhao Qingming, an analyst in Beijing at China Construction Bank Corp., the nation’s second-largest lender.PeteCA

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:15 am

To characterize Paulson and Bernanke, they are arrogant, incompetent, self-centered, ill-conceived, deceptive, corrupted, self-serving, passive aggressive destructive morons.

P1AQL.September 26th, 2008 at 10:16 am

Keep your eye on the ball. They would have never been able to peddle the loans without the AAA lipstick on the pig.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:17 am

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., said Wednesday, “Ultimately $700 billion has to be available but … they are making progress about how to give people some assurance that it is not going to go to $700 billion in one fell swoop.” Yahoo NewsWhat kind of blackmail do the financiers have on this guy?

Detlef GuertlerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:29 am

MA,I bet the same editors that asked “who is this Hartmann guy?” today, have asked “who is that Roubini guy?” one year ago. If you really have a business plan for some kind of asset transparency – the same editors will soon be sorry to have missed the chance to be the first MSM to publish this Hartmann guy.Just a little advice from a journalist: You shouldn’t have started with Chinese tea. You had something important and relevant to say, but for some ironic or stylish reason you wrap it into something irrelevant. No-one gets irony right, especially when talking about trillions of dollars.Once you have reached the brand awareness of, say, Woody Allen, such a style is alright. But with that wrapping technique you’ll find it hard to reach that awareness.

littleannSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:35 am

I have on two consecutive days been in touch with Chuck Schumer’s Long Island office (631) 753-0978, and have spoken to two different individuals. In both conversations I was told that I was wrong in my analysis and that a deal would be done. I argued for some time my case and he/she were as argumentative. I told each one how saddened I was that they felt it their duty to express Schumer’s opinion rather than listening to my opinions. They were both incensed that I had an opinion against Schumer’s. I am more outraged by them than what I was arguing. What times we live!!!

Stratonovich calculusSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:48 am

UN*X shell script to fax Congress:1. Documents for Senate and House: Save As… > PostScript files (location, names in script below).2. Run this script with your modem plugged into a phone jack with a standard telephone cord (RJ11):#!/bin/bash -xPREFIX=”*70-1-”FROM=\””+1-XXX-YYY-ZZZZ”‘\’NAME=\””Paulson Bailout Is An Unworkable Sellout”‘\’SENATE_PS=”$HOME/Desktop/OpposeBailout_Senate.ps”HOUSE_PS=”$HOME/Desktop/OpposeBailout_House.ps”SENATE_FAX=”$SENATE_PS.00?”HOUSE_FAX=”$HOUSE_PS.00?”echo FROM=$FROMecho NAME=$NAME# Create the fax files on the desktop(cd $HOME/DesktopCMD=”fax FROM=$FROM NAME=$NAME make $SENATE_PS”eval $CMDCMD=”fax FROM=$FROM NAME=$NAME make $HOUSE_PS”eval $CMD)# Targeted Senatorsfor PHONE_NUMBER in \202-224-3416 \202-224-5137 \202-224-7327 \202-228-2193 \202-228-1373 \202-224-6020 \202-228-2862 \202-228-4260 \202-224-7665 \202-228-3954 \202-228-2717 \202-228-1377 \202-224-8858 \202-228-2183 \202-224-8525 \202-224-6747 \202-228-0282 \; doCMD=”fax FROM=$FROM NAME=$NAME send $PREFIX$PHONE_NUMBER $SENATE_FAX”eval $CMDdone# My Senatorsfor PHONE_NUMBER in \202-224-2417 \202-224-8525 \; doCMD=”fax FROM=$FROM NAME=$NAME send $PREFIX$PHONE_NUMBER $SENATE_FAX”eval $CMDdone# House membersfor PHONE_NUMBER in \202-225-9322 \202-225-4188 \202-225-0182 \617-332-2822 \508-999-6468 \508-822-8186 \; doCMD=”fax FROM=$FROM NAME=$NAME send $PREFIX$PHONE_NUMBER $HOUSE_FAX”eval $CMDdoneexit 0

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:51 am

This financial crisis may be what we need now to washout the rich’s excesses. So that the supper rich billionaires become millionaires and the rich millionaires join the middle class and the middle class will become little poorer, but poor Americans will have no effect from this financial crisis because they don’t have leveraged assets, bonds and stocks. This is a natural way taxing the superich massively, rich heavily, and middle class and poor people little. When our corrupt, manupulative government and incompetent, self-serving Congress don’t do it, the natural economic force will accomplish it. Let’s make capitalism survive with transparency and accountability.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:01 am

Do you know that a few years ago Barney Frank shut out the proposal by the president for regulation of Freddie and Fannie for their dangerous leverage scheme (150 times of the capital) and irresponsible lendings? If he had not objected, we would not have this financial crisis. Of course, he had lobbist.What a terrible congressman Barny Frank was!!!!!!And what a irresponsible Barny Frank is now!!!!!!

Wild BillSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:13 am

Keep calling. Get tough. E-Mail! Tell them you are watching them carefully. Keep the pressure on. Demand accountability. Tell your friends to do the same. Keep their feet to the fire. If you give them a chance to wriggle free, they’ll take it. Make sure they know how angry you are. Tell them that if they vote for the bailout, there will be a swift and certain congress default swap.

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:15 am

A high level, simple view of this situation:(please offer correction if this interpretation is flawed)Leadership (Paulson & Co.) wants to place gigantic, incalculable toxic asset burden on US Taxpayer.Large Banks/(former)IB’s who hold these toxic assets want to acquire large deposit bases of US Taxpayer Demand Deposits to provide a capital base/subsidy that allows these institutions to continue a more concentrated version of this shadow financial system.Sounds like the cry for new leadership has to come from a place of Integrity well outside of Wall Street? Who might that be?

IncognitoSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:18 am

An interesting (and very scary) article from FT. Some extracted figures are:- Deutsche Bank’s leverage is 50 times Germany’s GDP. Its liabilities are 70% of Germany’s GDP.- Barclays’s leverage is 60 times UK’s GDP. Its liabilities are 100%% of UK’s GDP.- Fortis’ leverage is 33 times Germany’s GDP. Its liabilities are 300% of Belgiums’s GDP- Most part of the leverage in these banks’ books are hidden under the regulatory capital relief structures (insurance products) traded with AIG.MY COMMENT: I have previously posted figures based on 2007 estimates of ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) for the net exposure in Credit Derivatives market. The net exposure in this market is 9 trillion US dollars. However, the total capital of the entinre banking system is 2 trillion US dollars (this is the capital put aside for all loans & investments of the banks). Currently, the losses are supposedly absorbed by the regulatory capital. If this capital is wiped out, which seems to be the case, the total loss will be much wider than estimated. 700 billion US dollar is not a necessary amount to save the entire system.——————————-FT: European banking on borrowed timeBy Daniel Gros and Stefano MicossiThe US financial system is being nationalised. The piecemeal approach followed so far had clearly not been working. Hence the US political system is working overtime to reach a bipartisan agreement on a systemic solution. The centrepiece is already known: the US government is going to buy $700bn (€480bn, £380bn) of the so-called “toxic” assets. More measures are certain to follow as the banks will require recapitalisation to the extent that they make losses. As a result, the US government will soon own a large share of the US banking system. If the details are generous enough, this should be sufficient finally to restore orderly market conditions. Can Europe be far behind?The synchronised movements in global markets over the last few weeks have shown that contagion works on the way down and on the way up.But the case of AIG, the US insurer, also shows the importance of another, hidden, link across financial markets, namely massive evasion of regulatory requirements. AIG’s last annual report reveals that it had written coverage for more than $300bn of credit insurance for European banks. The comment by AIG itself on these positions was that they were “for the purpose of providing them with regulatory capital relief rather than risk mitigation in exchange for a minimum guaranteed fee”. Thus, a formal default by AIG would have exposed European banks to large increases in regulatory capital requirements, with possibly devastating effects on their ratings and market confidence. Thus, the US Treasury has saved, inter alia, the European banking system.The extent of regulatory arbitrage can also be seen in the very large gap between overall leverage ratios and the official regulatory ratios. The dozen largest European banks have now, on average, an overall leverage ratio (shareholders’ equity to total assets) of 35, which has actually increased so far this year, compared with less than 20 for the largest US banks. But at the same time most large European banks also report regulatory leverage ratios of close to 10. This is partly due to the fact that the massive in-house investment banking operations of European banks are subject only to limited regulatory capital requirements. Another part of the explanation must be regulatory arbitrage, for example, through the credit insurance offered by AIG.Europe’s banks will benefit greatly from the effective nationalisation of the US financial system now being planned, because the larger ones, which all have significant US operations will also benefit from the $700bn bail-out fund. But it remains unclear how many of these assets they still hold in their balance sheets and how volatile their liability base will prove if confidence does not return quickly.The crucial problem on this side of the Atlantic is that the largest European banks have become not only too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. For example, the total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leverage ratio over 50!) amount to about €2,000bn (more than Fannie Mae) or more than 80 per cent of the gross domestic product of Germany. This is simply too much for the Bundesbank or even the German state, given that the German budget is bound by the rules of the European Union’s stability pact and the German government cannot order (unlike the US Treasury) its central bank to issue more currency. Similarly, the total liabilities of Barclays of around £1,300bn (leverage ratio 60!) are roughly equivalent to the GDP of the UK. Fortis bank has a leverage ratio of “only” 33, but its liabilities are three times the GDP of its home country of Belgium.With banks that have outgrown their home turf, national treasuries and regulators in Europe are living on borrowed time: they cannot simply develop “road maps” (the only result of various Ecofin discussions of regulatory reform by finance ministers), but must contemplate a worst-case scenario.Given that solutions for the largest institutions can no longer be found at the national level it is apparent that the European Central Bank will need to be put in charge as it is the only institution that can issue unlimited amounts of a global reserve currency. The authorities in the UK and Switzerland – which cannot rely on the ECB – can only pray that no accident happens to the giants they have in their own garden.

HeartlanderSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:26 am

Wouldn’t that help bring in capital from other nations as well as relieve some pressure on already-struggling companies? Especially the smaller companies?

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:27 am

Isn’t it convenient that Jamie Dimon, chairman of the board and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. since January 1, 2007, who also assumed the title of president upon the company’s merger with Bank One Corporation in 2004, is on the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – where all major decisions by the Fed are made?Isn’t it convenient that JPMorgan Chase just took over $307 billion in assets and a branch network of 2300 outlets from WaMu, which had been the largest savings and loan in the country? Isn’t it convenient that B. Bernanke, head of the Fed Reserve, cushioned JPMorgan Chase’s take over of Bear Stearns with $30bn?Isn’t it convenient that the Fed banking cartel that is in charge of our government is eliminating all competition and orchestrating the biggest financial monopoly in world history?

suecrisSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:44 am

Are you serious or being ironic? I’ve been following this all very closely and McCain made no proposal, I think? Other Republicans made a strange proposal involving cutting capital gains (which makes NO sense at this time, since no one is making any gains) but not McCain.Explain?

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:45 am

Stratonovich calculus: I am delighted to see someone taking this fight to new heights.You have demonstrated an ingenuity and degree of focus that’s really admirable.Let’s innovate! Rise and shine, folks!

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:50 am

Point well taken DG. Thank you.(i write like I speak) I’m sure I could’ve done a better job if I had a little more time. (I actually thought irony/joke/soundbite was the right way to go since US news/readers tend to like that…???)…but in hindsight, I think your right.Miss America

2centsSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:56 am

@ LBNot sure if you’ve posted this anywhere @RGE, so I’m reposting your comment from Brad’s site.Excellent and timely, Brad. I’ve been speculating all week that the pressure being used on the Congress to pass the Paulson Plan is the threat of Fed illiquidity. As of two weeks ago, the Fed had lent out more than $600 billion of its $800 billion balance sheet Treasuries against crap MBS collateral.The Paulson Plan would have allowed the banks to unwind the repos putting the Treasuries back in the Fed, get cash for the crap MBS, and get more Treasuries from the issues financing the $700+ billion funding of the Plan. As a bonus, the Paulson mark-to-maturity price becomes the implicit Level 3 price for capitalisation of all the firms and banks in the system, giving them some breathing room to stay in business. Everyone wins except the poor American taxpayer.The Fed is very close to being illiquid. That is the fear factor we are seeing at work, and the reason no one will discuss why the bailout is needed – only emphasise the urgency.I think that ths is a very good insight as to what is going on behind the curtain.

2centsSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:59 am

This will be newly created money. As an increase in money supply, it should be highly inflationary, but given the circumstances who knows. This is otherwise new debt that US taxpayers are ultimately and eventually responsible for!

SoftwarengineerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

ITS REALLY QUITE SIMPLEYou don’t pay for anything or bail it out, unless you get the title.Having said that, I’m still horrified and against any bailout.Our Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution clearly states that Congress shall have the power to create money and regulate the value thereof, NOT A BUNCH OF INTERNATIONAL BANKERS!Who’s going to be King of the world, when we go to a world currency soon and how worthless will all our US dollars be after the change?

mammonSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:13 pm

There are many ways to skin cat! Private Equity has a plan!Tonight the political theater will start! We all know that Paulson’s Planwas terminally defective. We all know that the Professor’s Plan is better. Here is thepolitics.Mccain will announce that he is the head of a POPULIST POLITICALINSURGENCY AGAINST THE ESTABLISHMENT AS PERSONIFIED BY FRANK AND PAULSON!HE IS NOW TEDDY ROOSEVELT AND WANTS TO LEAD THE FIGHT AGAINST THE BAILOUT.HE AND THE COURAGEOUS BAND OF REPUBLICAN BROTHERS ARE RESISTING THE SIEGELIKE IN THE ALAMO. THEY ARE OUTNUMBERED, BUT THEY WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HELPOF THE COMMON MAN.His plan will have the banks pay premiums for insurance to the Treasury.His plan will provide stimulus tax cuts!His plan will free the private capital that is waiting to invest in banks!This will be a private capital solution, not a socialist solution!He is not going to say this, but private equity capital, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds will be allowed to invest in banks 100% with triggering the Bank Holding Act. Treasury will takeover the bottom of the credit default pyramid!FDIC guarantee will be expanded to 2 million dollarsto supposedly help the small business people.HE WILL NOW BE AN INSURGENT LIKE THE FOUNDING FATHERS. A PATRIOT FIGHTING FOR THE COMMON MANI have to admit, I do not have the specifics of the Alternative Republican Plan, and I am totallyspeculating!

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:25 pm

I can help with that.What if this were common knowlegesnips from there:This page provides readers access to examples of the capital confluence of the promiscuous, prohibited, perplexing and political. This is nothing new. For example, during the Civil War there were 450 brothels in DC. Neither, however, is it insignificant. Part of the mythology of Washington is what might be called the Jim Lehrer Illusion, which is to say that all people in the capital do is sit around and rationally debate policy alternatives. In fact, Washington politics is also heavily driven by cowardice, blackmail, deceit, fear, loyalty to old buddies and even older bodies, cooptation, corruption, sex, and just plain crime. Journalists who pretend otherwise either don’t understand what is going on or are covering for someone.The public often misunderstands the importance of Washington scandals, assuming them to be a simple dalliance, individual failing, or private offense. What makes both sex and crime in DC different, at least when those in power are involved, is that there is far more opportunity for blackmail and far more skill at covering things up.The blackmail may be used by members of one branch of government against those of another, by lobbyists against members of Congress, by the police against whomever they wish, and by foreign powers. For example, one way to keep a congress member bought is for a lobbyist to provide him with high class prostitutes. And it is noteworthy that both the Israelis and Boris Yeltsin apparently knew about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky before the American public did. The city’s ecology lends particular importance to gay sex simply because greater public antipathy makes it an even easier target for the blackmailer, witness the case a few years back when DC police officers were found to be running an extortion racket against those who visited gay bars.Finally, the exposure of impropriety almost inevitably raises the issue of hypocrisy since the participating official often has inveighed against the discovered offense or attempted to ban, punish, or otherwise suppress the revealed practice. One of the more ironic examples was when, during the 1960s, a white southern senator was caught with a black prostitute. Said a civil rights leader, “Oh he’s just one of those sunup to sundown segregationists.” Washington is full of sunup to sundown moralists.The ability to cover up scandal or crime is also much greater in Washington. This may be accomplished by relying on the social club rules of the federal city, through the aid of acquiescent journalists, by official spin or censorship, or by resort to the capital’s various law enforcement agencies, each one beholden for budget and top appointments to some federal department. For example, both the Attorney General and the U.S. Attorney(who handles all DC crimes) are appointed by the president. The FBI, DEA, ATF, National Park police, the Secret Service, not to mention the Aqueduct police, all work for the president. And the Metropolitan Police Department is under the thumb of Congress, which approves its budget and exercises behind-the-scenes authority.In short, there is far more politically related sex and crime in Washington then is generally reported, it is less competently investigated than is generally thought, and it is far easier to cover up than is generally appreciated.PAUL M. RODRIGUEZ AND GEORGE ARCHIBALD WASHINGTON TIMES, 1989: A homosexual prostitution ring is under investigation by federal and District authorities and includes among its clients key officials of the Reagan and Bush administrations, military officers, congressional aides and U.S. and foreign businessmen with close social ties to Washington’s political elite, documents obtained by The Washington Times reveal. One of the ring’s high-profile clients was so well-connected, in fact, that he could arrange a middle-of-the-night tour of the White House for his friends on Sunday, July 3, of last year. Among the six persons on the extraordinary 1 a.m. tour were two male prostitutes . . . Reporters for this newspaper examined hundreds of credit-card vouchers, drawn on both corporate and personal cards and made payable to the escort service operated by the homosexual ring . . . Among the client names contained in the vouchers – and identified by prostitutes and escort operators – are government officials, locally based U.S. military officers, businessmen, lawyers, bankers, congressional aides and other professionals . . .1990: the House reprimands Massachusetts congressman Barney Frank, for – among other things – using his political influence to fix parking tickets for an intimate friend who was also a male prostitute and ran a homosexual whorehouse out of the Frank residence. Other members who got into trouble included Gary Studds of Massachusetts who seduced a young male House page and was censured by the House. Dan Crane of Illinois had sex with a female page, cried and begged forgiveness on the floor of the House and lost his next election.******I do SERIOUSLY wonder what would happen if the people of America all read that page at prorev.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

Federal Reserve Doubles Lending as Crisis Worsens (Update1)2008-09-25 21:16:51.820 GMT(Adds total lending in first paragraph.)By Scott LanmanSept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Commercial banks and bond dealers borrowed $217.7 billion from the Federal Reserve as of yesterday, more than double the prior week, as the financial crisis worsened and private funding dried up.Loans to commercial banks through the traditional discount window totaled $39.3 billion as of yesterday, up from $33.4 billion, the Fed said. Borrowing by securities firms totaled$105.7 billion, up from $59.8 billion. Under a new emergency program announced Sept. 19, banks borrowed $72.7 billion as of yesterday to buy commercial paper from money-market mutual funds.The report reflects an expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and emergency-lending programs aimed at halting the yearlong credit crisis by pumping the most credit into the financial system since the Great Depression.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

I thought for sure that stocks would crater today, forcing some kind of agreement over the weekend if politicians don’t want another “balck Monday” on their hands

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:33 pm

WLI Growth at New 28-year LowReuters26-September-2008(Reuters) – NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) – A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to a fresh five-year low and its annualized growth rate dove to a 28-year low, indicating the recession will likely drag on regardless of policy actions, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.2 in the week to Sept. 19, its lowest reading since the week to April 25, 2003, when it stood at 120.7.Last week’s figure was 125.0, revised from 125.1.Its annualized growth rate plunged to negative 12.3 percent from minus 11.5 percent in the previous week, matching a low reached in June 6, 1980 according to ECRI data.The index was pulled down by higher jobless claims and weaker stock prices and housing data, and was partly offset by stronger money supply growth, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in an instant message interview.”With WLI growth falling to a fresh 28-year low, it is clear that the recession will not end any time soon, regardless of actions taken by Washington,” he said.Privacy Policy Terms of Service

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:38 pm

The Ones who are destroying American Financial System and Economy1) Mr. Phil Gramm, and Mr. James Leach – Repealer of the Glass-Steagall Act by Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act – allowed massive securitization by the Wall Street Investment Banks and other financial entities2) Mr. Alan Greenspan – Fed’s irresponsible Monetary Policy maker and bubble blower – made a massive tech stock bubble and the biggest housing bubble3) Mr. Ben Bernanke – Irresponsible Monetary Policy maker and stock market manipulator – is killing the dollar and tanking the stock market4) Mr. Hank Paulson – Irresponsible Bailout King – is destroying American financial system and tanking American economy by incompetence and causing substandard living for Americans and making rich for the Wall Street manipulators by bringing in socialism for the rich and fraudster5) Mr. Christopher Cox – Flagrant violator of Capital Market and manipulator of the US Stock Market – causing the demise of capitalism6) Mr. Barney Frank and Mr. Christopher Dodd – Incompetent Accomplices destroying sound American Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Policies – is taking American people to a poor house at the expenses of self interest of reelection7) Mr. Timothy Geithner – Market Manipulator – is destroy American banking system in the behind sceneThe presidentially appointed Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., has voting power over cutting or raising interest rates and is the voting power in the Federal Open Market Committee. I believe its members should be included on the list.The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.2008 Members of the FOMCo Ben S. Bernanke, Board of Governors, Chairmano Timothy F. Geithner, New York, Vice Chairman (employee representing permanent member bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where all Fed decisions are made and whose board chair is Stephen Friedman)o Elizabeth A. Duke, Board of Governors (newly appointed)o Richard W. Fisher, Dallaso Donald L. Kohn, Board of Governorso Randall S. Kroszner, Board of Governorso Sandra Pianalto, Clevelando Charles I. Plosser, Philadelphiao Gary H. Stern, Minneapoliso Kevin M. Warsh, Board of Governorso two vacancies Board of GovernorsIn May, when the crisis was peaking, the Board consisted of Ben Bernanke (chairman) • Donald Kohn (vice-chairman) • Randall Kroszner • Frederic Mishkin • Kevin Warsh. Mishkin has since resigned and Duke appointed.It was The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System that announced in July that it had granted the Federal Reserve Bank of New York the authority to lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac…”intended to supplement the Treasury’s existing lending authority and to help ensure the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to promote the availability of home mortgage credit during a period of stress in financial markets.”Friedman, board chair of the New York Fed, is retired chairman of The Goldman Sachs Group and a current board member of The Goldman Sachs Group.http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htmI also include the following individuals plundering the Americans by massive securitization, malinvestment, manipulation of the market, control of The Fed and Department of Treasurey of the United States, and causing massive dislocation of their Investment Banks and American financial system and demise of American Economy. These are:1) Stanley O’Neal of Merrill Lynch2) John Thain of Merrill Lynch3) Henry Paulson of Goldman Sacks4) James Cayne of Bear Stearns5) John Mack of Morgan Stanley6) Philip Purcell of Morgan Stanley7) Richard Fuld of Lehman Brothers.Please see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a96vQtgKS3BM&refer=exclusiveRobert Rubin! He was essential in getting the Glass-Steagall Act repealed. And he’s now Obama’s economic adviser. We’re so screwed…Does Obama know Robert Rubin was the architect who repealed Glass-Steagall Act and has produced this economic crisis?http://my.opera.com/richardinbellingham/blog/show.dml/1796860What a sad situation it is in American politics!

AndySeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:43 pm

Along with writing to our representatives, we should also raise a demand for the congress & representatives, to invite and hear the opinions of real economists like Dr. Roubini, Marc Faber etc. so the people can also see and hear the real truth about this mess.

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

…and, considering how my posting that COULD be misconstrued, just so there can be no misunderstanding about my own views, it is COERCION and HYPOCRISY I call sins. Truly consenting adults enjoying their sexuality, whatever that is, I have NO PROBLEM with.

Paul in PhoenixSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

Roubini: What makes America GREAT is the fact we have people like you, a “global nomad” who found a home here in the land of the brave, the home of the free. I am VERY PROUD to have you here, Nouriel, and appreciate your views and insight, no matter what color reporters and pundits chose to paint them. You are a TRUE AMERICAN, Nouriel!!! Please help this great country, please help us. WE NEED YOU!!!! :) Thank you!!PaulPhoenix, Arizona

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

This rush to bailout is a rush to massive coverup.A San Francisco letter writer today gives new meaning to a shocking revelation from a former top HUD insider (provided on this blog last night) that rush to bailout is likely covering massive mortgage fraud by bankers.Here’s the letter:I am a retired federal law enforcement officer who investigated several multimillion-dollar fraud schemes during my career. The biggest “red flag” in those schemes was the forceful statement of the fraudsters to the victims that you must sign on to this “opportunity” immediately or you will lose your chance to take advantage of the plan. I am not making this up—that is what they do.The frightening thing to me is that the White House and Bush’s minion, Treasury Secretary Paulson, must have read the same book to get their ill-advised bailout passed. It sure sounds familiar to me. What the hell is the hurry? Take time to work it out. AL DOCKUS San Francisco.The massive fraud is a sort of multi-trillion HUD House Con Game whereby the swindling bank takes one HUD house and issues several fake mortgages on it. Says HUD insider Carolyn Betts:“I believe there is a good chance that there is collateral and other fraud in these mortgage loan portfolios, i.e., loans with no properties to support them, multiple loans secured by a single property, loans used to launder money through government guarantees.“This conclusion is based in part on the numbers, which don’t make sense, and upon observation of the number of HUD-insured loans that have gone into default before a single payment was received. If the lenders are just paid for these loans what is the theoretical value in a good market for these loans, assuming they are performing (i.e., above current market value), the lenders will get a windfall and be rewarded for making fraudulent and/or predatory loans.”And the bailout as proposed will be a perfect way to hide the evidence of wrongdoing.”

SoftwarengineerSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:50 pm

SOME AMERICAN HISTORY TO REMEMBER”…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . .If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” –Thomas Jefferson — The Debate Over The Recharter Of The Bank Bill, (1809)…”The rest of teh URL:http://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view?back=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3F_adv_prop%3Dimage%26fr%3Dyfp-t-501-s%26va%3Dgreat%2Bdepression%26sz%3Dall&w=383&h=236&imgurl=nwomirror.tripod.com%2Fdepression.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fnwomirror.tripod.com%2F&size=14kB&name=depression.jpg&p=great+depression&type=JPG&oid=8911b23a587f864e&no=3&tt=45,827&sigr=10s3iafsn&sigi=113dove05&sigb=136miaguk

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 12:56 pm

@suecrisI understood it as a joke, but I could be wrong. I share your sentiments. I’ve been watching closely as events have unfolded and beyond a grab for media attention, McCain has had no substantive role in the bailout negotiations. Nor, to my dismay, since McCain’s visit to DC, has anything productive come out of the Republican camp, beyond the usual free market mumbo-jumbo. The entire effort has been reduced to a fiasco that only Kudlow fans would appreciate.

Stratonovich calculusSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:00 pm

Don’t miss the Bush-Administration-directed irony:bash == Bourne-Again SHell’, a pun on Stephen Bourne, the author of the direct ancestor of the current Unix shell `/bin/sh’.

mammonSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:05 pm

The democrats fell into the trap of modifying Paulson’s Plan instead of presenting theirown. Now the democrats can be characterized as wedded to Bush and Paulson! They were setup to fail! Mccain’s alternative republican plan will sound as if he is rescuing the country!If the American people bite, you may have republicans in congress and the presidency.The democrats should have a press conference with a new plan along the lines of theProfessor’s Plan.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:21 pm

How about should we include the guys who had ran Fannie and Freddie, Countrywide, IndyMac and now Wasdhington Mutual?

Stratonovich calculusSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

For what it’s worth, here the boilerplate concerns I’ve been faxing to Congress, most of it borrowed from Mish:

Dear Senator:The Paulson plan is not workable. It is a sellout to failed/insolvent banks at great taxpayer expense.Mad Rush To Financial JudgmentToday President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson are peddling the same story:• There can be no delay.• Sweeping new Powers for the Fed are needed.• The Treasury needs $700 billion dollars.• There is no time to study alternatives.Senator, in your heart you know these are lies. We do not need and cannot afford a financial mad rush to judgment by a panicked administration that obviously doesn’t get the problem.Paulson’s Expensive Plan Won’t WorkThe Paulson plan will not create any jobs or help homeowners pay their bills. Instead it diverts $700 billion of taxpayer funds to failed/incompetent banks that took irresponsible/incompetent risks. The sheer size of the bailout will cause interest rates to rise, further adding to taxpayer woes.The bubble has popped, and no amount of taxpayer money can bring it back – you may as well buy $700 billion worth of tulips and pets.com stock and hope that they recover too.As home prices fall to pre-bubble levels, more millions of insolvent and underwater homeowners will simply walk away, exacerbating the problem and increasing the cost of Paulson’s bailout. My family identified the bubble in 2004 and we decided to rent — our rent is nearly half the cost to buy a comparable house. If the Case-Shiller futures on home prices are correct — they predict a real 38% drop in my state — it would be financial suicide for my family to buy a house. More Wall Street capitalization will not convince my family to buy a house or prevent a single foreclosure.Long term interest rates are already up a half point on news of this bill. They will rise more if it passes, adding downward pressure on home values, putting more homeowners underwater, and increasing the cost of Paulson’s proposed bailout. How can this possibly help the country?What Will Treasury Do With All Those Houses?Paulson asked for a blank check for Fannie Mae. He told you he had no intention us using the blank check. One week later Paulson wrote a $200 Billion taxpayer funded check to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He wrote another $85 billion taxpayer check for AIG. How many more checks can he write before you get the idea “Paulson is flying blindly by the seat of his pants”?Why should you trust officials who did not see this trainwreck coming? Why should you trust officials who have been dead wrong about these problems for years? Your trust should ONLY be with those who did see it coming and have offered valid, workable alternatives.Paulson’s plan to saddle the taxpayer with nearly a trillion dollars of bubble-priced CDO toxic waste that he says will go up in value is a panicky fantasy. This plan just makes Treasury into the world’s biggest house flipper, with taxpayers underwriting the inevitable losses.Robbing taxpayers to pay failed banks cannot possibly work!Printing money and giving it away cannot work either. If it did work, Zimbabwe would be the most prosperous nation in the world.190+ Economists Slam BailoutOver 190 top economists in the country have slammed this bailout on grounds of fairness, ambiguity, and long term effects.http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/mortgage_protest.htmWhat is it that Paulson knows that 190+ economists don’t? Paulson was telling us all how safe the US Banking system was just a few weeks ago.Paul O’Neill Is Against The PlanFormer Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill said today that our nation’s leaders — especially President Bush — are “in a panic” and haven’t thought through the $700 billion bailout plan in a rush to pass it by the end of the week.”I don’t think he understands or knows much about any of this and it shows. It is possible to reliquefy the credit system without ‘We the People’ owning $700 billion worth of homes,” he said.BB&T Corp. Chief Executive Officer John Allison critiques the planTreasury “is totally dominated by Wall Street investment bankers” and “cannot be relied on to objectively assess” the impact of government policy on the financial industry, Allison wrote in a Sept. 23 letter to Congress.Have the courage to stand up do what you know you must do: Block This Bill.I cannot and will not vote for any member of Congress who votes for this bill in its current form or anything remotely close to the current form.It is time to scrap the Paulson Plan and start all over.Stratonovich calculusXXX-YYY-ZZZZ

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

Then let’s hope the FBI puts a freeze on all the paperwork before they pass this thing (if they do). If this is what’s going on, theor whole da** system deserves to crash.PeteCA

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:38 pm

@mammon”I have to admit, I do not have the specifics of the Alternative Republican Plan, and I am totallyspeculating!”That’s hardly speculation. It’s a sound conclusion based on historical evidence.You can fool me once …

crgordonSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

When a farmer calls “sooooeeeee” and slops the pigs, the pigs come a runnin’. The dems couldn’t help but run to the trough before the slop was gone. Not a proud moment in dem history.

Andy SunSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:43 pm

If I come to your house (suppose we are neighbors) and ask for 1 million dollars, and tell you the following:1. Don’t ask how I am going to use the money.2. Don’t try to check how I am going to use the money.3. You have to sign a note that you’ll never sue me for this.4. I may use the money to buy another neighbor’s junks or his used car.5. I may lose only half or all of your money, but I may be able to make a profit and return the money to you.What would you think I am? Crazy?If I add that if you don’t do this, your house may be on fire later today or tomorrow. What would you think I am then?

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 1:49 pm

…Unless a democratic fringe, (led by Obama?) canmaterialize and rise to the occasion over thenext 24-36 hours.RU familiar w/ Brad Sherman of California?Best…

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:00 pm

the Fed provides the “good” collateral to the Bk/Dr for them to get the liquidity.MAI have to think what you said through a little more… but at the moment, I don’t see that? (I could be wrong)

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

If the sting works for the con artists in government-backed mortgages why not use it in the insurance industry? The American public won’t realize it’s been had until its money is gone and Paulson and Bernanke and Barney and Bush and all-of-the-above are in Dubai, and the devil take the hindmost. These are globalists, aren’t they?

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:09 pm

But don’t forget that Paulson is a register Democrat. I really don’t think a party moniker matters anymore: it’s just a big one-party leviathan, corrupt to the core.

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:10 pm

I am blown away that the FASB seems to be forgotten in the whole blame game.Last time I checked, bad math can’t be practiced in finance without bad accounting. Why aren’t the FASB heads on a stick right now? Are they not enormous accomplices to the entire financial crisis. (Timely accounting rule changes that fit Broker needs)C’mon people!!! “157c” for gods sake?!?!?!Miss America

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:27 pm

Agree with most of the above, but not “morons”. They may have blind spots, thank God, but they are very effective at what they do.That’s why we have to continue working in many ways, many dimensions, to stop them and let the truth win, let the people control the government.

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:29 pm

Here’s a lighter break and take of the situationfrom Jon Stewart in last night’s Daily Showin case you missed it:Video Link => Awkward Loan Interview(03:30)Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke appear in Congresswith hat in hand for the world’s most awkwardloan interview ever.CHEERS!

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:32 pm

JGU, do you believe people should get help if they haven’t met payments due to loss of job no fault of their own or due to accident or injury to health, or to exceptional circumstances beyond their control? You sound to me like you would allow help for no one, but I hope I’m getting that wrong. I certainly hope this country is not going to compound its sins by ignoring innocent victims in all this.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

So globalization was all fine and dandy when theytook our jobs, but now when they need something,who do they come to?Go ask India and China for your 700 billion.

Michael KhorSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

From invisibility to inevitably a massive bailout plan is hatched out by the Treasury and Fed that need emergency actions by Congress. Isn’t it alarming? Their pathetic record in handling this financial crisis deserves detail evaluation of their current massive bail-out proposal. Under no circumstances, should Congress rush to approve the proposal least of all giving the Treasury uncheck authority to manage the bail-out. Financial Armageddon will not happen during this period of Congress deliberation of the proposal. America is not short of economists and financial expert to handle this job. Let’s all of us not forget that America economists and financial experts have been assisting countries around the world to resolve financial crises in the past. People like Lawrence Summers, Paul Krugman, and Jeffrey Sachs come to mind, in addition to current star Prof. Nouriel. Has the Government seek the help and the advice of the best Americans to resolve this crisis?One controversial question come to mind, why has the Treasury waited until now to make a proposal when only two major investment banks were left standing, where Paulson is the alumnus of one of them, namely Goldman Sachs. Why emergency measure has not been taken much earlier? Policy-makers have long been pre-warned by economists, in particular Nouriel Roubini, about the flawed model of the investment banks and its eventual demise. To date the flip-flop assurance and panic statements made by the Treasury and Fed, I believe have creating more uncertainty in their handling of the crisis. Most of all proposals by these policy-makers deserve close scrutiny by Congress as well as the public. Enough is enough and taxpayers should not put to risks to bail-out corporations that created the financial crisis without facing punitive measures. During good times, Wall Street corporate leaders were idolized for their courage and good performance reaping obscene bonuses and rewards in the process. Yet during this crisis these corporate leaders have loss the courage to face the consequences and take the losses without burden to the taxpayers-especially those who had not benefited from their past actions- to steer their respective corporations out of their self-inflicted financial mess. It is high time, these Wall Street leaders be held accountable for their reckless behavior and appetite for risks. Being an ex-investment banker, Paulson should not have forgotten the tenet of finance that investors (taxpayers) have to be rewarded for risk taking. Thus, there should be no free lunch for this bail-out other than for charity to deserved organization. Even Warren Buffet who has been giving a big chunk of his wealth to charity also invests in Goldman Sachs for financial gains.

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:49 pm

Isn’t it convenient that Jamie Dimon, chairman of the board and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. since January 1, 2007, who also assumed the title of president upon the company’s merger with Bank One Corporation in 2004, is on the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – where all major decisions by the Fed are made?Isn’t it convenient that JPMorgan Chase just took over $307 billion in assets and a branch network of 2300 outlets from WaMu, which had been the largest savings and loan in the country? Isn’t it convenient that B. Bernanke, head of the Fed Reserve, cushioned JPMorgan Chase’s take over of Bear Stearns with $30bn?Isn’t it convenient that the Fed banking cartel that is in charge of our government is eliminating all competition and orchestrating the biggest financial monopoly in world history?Too vastly deserving of a repeat for me not to do it. Consider that stolen word for word, Guest. I’ll be passing it on. Thank you.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

I do know that the FASB is in the middle of a convergence project with the International Accounting Standards Board to destroy time-honored accounting standards for public companies in the U.S. and make it easier for these companies to obfuscate their financial statements using the inferior and less opaque international financial statements. Another dirty deal by the SEC to handicap the outsider’s position in the markets.The Financial Accounting Standards Board members are appointed for five-year terms and are eligible for reappointment to one additional five-year term. Expiration dates of current terms are indicated:Robert H. Herz, Chairman 2012George J. Batavick 2008Thomas J. Linsmeier 2011Leslie F. Seidman 2011Lawrence W. Smith 2012The Board is assisted by a staff of approximately 68 professionals drawn from public accounting, industry, academe, and government, plus support personnel. The staff works directly with the Board:Russell G. Golden, Technical DirectorRonald W. Lott, Research DirectorSuzanne Q. Bielstein, Director—Planning and Support

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

How about a militia of accountants and auditors,lawyers and economists to unravel anydirty details before a bailout.The right of the people to keep and barecalculators and spreadsheets shall notbe infringed.

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

I believe WaMu was resolved with no FDIC funds used, isn’t that right?At some price, most of these banks can be bought. JPM felt it would be a stronger bank paying to bailout WaMu in return for its assets. There will be survivors from this, the taxpayers don’t have to be put at risk.If FDIC funds are required in some cases, I believe that will prove cheaper for taxpayers than bailing out the existing institution. Also there’s the principle of the thing: it’s better on principle. Shareholders and bondholders must be wiped out before taxpayers subsidize a dime.

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

Vote’m all out! They are not honoring the wishes of We the People, but only themselves and WallStreet. It is a sad chapter indeed for this country.

mammonSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:52 pm

Bloomberg story on Washington Mutual FDIC”The FDIC seized WaMu’s banking units, “cherry-picked a little bit” andmerged the Washington Mutual Federal Savings Bank into JPMorgan withouttransferring all the liabilities, MacDonald said.“The FDIC has nothing to do with the holding company.”AGAIN JPMORGAN BENEFITS TREMENDOUSLY FROM A DEAL!(remember Bear Stearns 29 billion)ALL OF THE BANKS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVE POSITIONSWILL BE FED ASSETS TO ASSIST IN THEIR SURVIVAL!!!

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 2:54 pm

Before the accounting procedureschange fromG enerallyA cceptedA ccountingP rocedurestoS tealing andL ieingA ccountingP rocedures

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:04 pm

I have a very basic question: where is all money that is “lost”. Can anybody explain it to me in very basic concepts? Thank you.Antonio Abreu, Lisbon, Portugal

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

Latest from Schiff”We are being told that this plan will help the economy by keeping the spigots of consumer credit flowing. However, to really address the fundamental problems, those spigots must be tightened. Since we have already borrowed and spent ourselves into bankruptcy, the last thing we need is for consumers to borrow more.”http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?id=14136hlowe

GloomySeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

Those assets will turn into liabilities after housing falls another 20-30%. JPM is just greedy and stupid, trying to buy “cheap” assets instead of preserving precious capital. First, they grabbed the Bear Stearns derivative garage and now WaMu’s large portfolio of tenuous mortgages. They will be insolvent and nationalized in the end, depend on it.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

I would like to put in a plug for JK Galbraith’s 2004 short publication “The Economics of Innocent Fraud” (he calls it “innocent fraud”because of the gap between reality and conventional wisdom), where he ticked off many of the culprits in this mess:1) the illusion of the “free market” economy2) the illusion of “ownership” by shareholders in corporations3) the illusion of “public” and “private policy” — it’s all private policy4) the fraud involved in the actions of the Federal Reserve5) the fraud of accounting firms in sustaining many of these illusionsIt’s only about 70 pages and quite worth reading, I think. Galbraith seems to want to remain “gentlemanly” but his criticisms go to the soul of what’s gone wrong.

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

Here’s how us scotsirish mutt people write it:From the West Wing of The Doublewide, somewhere’s near the armpit of the midwestDear My Local Congress Critter,Dr. Nouriel Roubini is a purty smart man who knows his economics boy howdy, and armed with help from any high school prom committee in the country, could do a right better job of gittin our butts outta this sling you’ve put us in, so do this consticheeant a favor and SEEK HIS HELP QUICK.If’n you wanna have a prayer o’ keepin’ that job o’ yourn.If we’d a had the local prom committee a runnin’ that Katrina aftermath, btw, things woulda gone a lot smoother.We aint forgot that mess, you know. Now git busy and git that Doctor Economics Roubini feller’s help on our side.signed,Your Boss

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

It’s in the offshore bank accounts of Wall Street.They sold the junk based on other junklied about it’s value, had it stampedby rating agencies as USDA prime.Took the profits and hid them offshore.Now the junk owners, want US taxpayers to paythe difference in value:purchase price – fair market value =purchase price – 0$ == purchase price

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

Let me be clear, and let me answer for JGU. Are we talking about fixing irresponsibility with hard-earned money from responsible people? We all have an obligation to understand the ramifications of our agreements and the last person to have to pay for misunderstanding should be the person who understands his obligations. Obviously, people who were cheated or lied to concerning their contracts have a right to relief from…the cheater, and not from the public. It is underhanded to used individual hardship cases to thwart general principles.By the way, it is also wrong to twist someone’s meaning for one’s own benefit.

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

I don’t get these type comments. Are we all of a sudden to believe that consumers have no LEGITIMATE NEED to borrow money????

AfASeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:24 pm

Here is my version of a Unisex outline of points to focus while calling/ e-mailing/ faxing your representatives:- I am against this bailout in its current or modified version- There shall be one NO vote. It will be either yours to Paulson, or mine to you.- Crisis = Opportunity. This is a good opportunity to conceive a comprehensive plan directed toward root causes not a lousy scheme to address aesthetic questions.- Do not rush, there are alternatives floating around. Time is your friend not enemy.- Hire/ delegate responsibilities to a special-purpose committee formed of economists and professionals covering the widest array and coverage of issues.- The main criteria for hiring committee members should be their independence, specialization, integrity, knowledgeable of politics …- Give the committee a specific goal and clear work guidelines and timeline.- If you need some guideline issues that any solution need to focus on, here are some I believe are critical, in no order of importance:*Complete access to pricing models to any firm participating in the bailout.*An across-the-board 10-20% price to all securities with the option to convert the difference between 50%-60% and the price paid into sur-preferred shares that are fully collateralized with the firm’s assets and include a conversion option into 80% common shares.*Stop all dividends before the firm is re-privatized again.*Appoint new management with clear directions to mortgage workout.*Use the difference between the hold-to-maturity price and the 50-60% (if positive) to debt and mortgage relief program.*Make all loans and mortgages, recourse ones.*Reprice homes bought by first-time buyers to the long-term Case-Shiller average (in terms of wage multiple)*Regulate OTC derivatives by moving them into clearinghouse-centered market*Strong regulation on leverage ratios any regulated or non-regulated entity should not exceed (X12)*Strong regulations about financial-reporting transparency (holdings, SIV-like entities, details about marked-to-model securities and their pricing for all levels…)*Punitive terms for risk-taking CEOs and managers: lockdown of part of their compensation into the company’s shares few years AFTER they are being replaced …*Revoke rating agencies charters and end their privileged monopoly in favor of a buyer/lender paid rating.*Reinstitute Steagall-Glass in an adapted and better version.*Any regulation should include both punitive and incentive clauses.p.s. I am a free-market proponent.

NovideSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:26 pm

And what if the foreigners don’t want to buy our treasury bills??????????????????????will they just print money???????????

OuterBeltwaySeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:31 pm

MA:You were a smashing success. You got 50 strangers to pull together to generate and deliver ideas. You got the makings of a team started.You’ll get published. Find yourself an up-and-coming editor that wants to be part of your success story. Better yet, find a coach – maybe some crusty old gal that’s been an editor at one of the publishing houses in NYC – maybe she’s ready to retire, and wants to help mid-wife the “what’s next?” economy as her parting shot. Such an editor could do a lot worse than hook up with you.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:42 pm

The End of the Republic by Sean OlenderTreasury Secretary Paulson’s edict to create a $700 billion fund to buy worthless mortgage securities from agitated wealthy bond investors is nothing short of a final step on the path to the end of the republic. The secretary claims he can only be effective if his decisions are beyond judicial review.Our government and its owners appear to be testing how much the American public will tolerate. A few years ago, no one could have imagined that the silent majority would quietly accept thefts of this magnitude from a government that stopped tiny payments to single mothers with poor children in the name of welfare reform because the program’s $10 billion cost was breaking the federal budget.This isn’t socialism, it’s fascism.If the public allows this theft, then it will signal to powerful forces that they can essentially do anything, because the American public has become so mushy-headed that it will stand up for nothing. When power discovers that those from whom it would exact payment are powerless, its viciousness increases infinitely.Our politicians appear on television and say, this is an emergency, so we have to do this now and talk about it later. And then later is too late.It is not just a $700 billion bailout, it is a $700 billion fund that can have no more than $700 billion in liabilities at any one time. Maybe Goldman Sachs can sell mortgage-backed securities to the fund at 80 cents on the dollar and then the fund will liquidate the securities by selling them back to Goldman for 50 cents on the dollar. Then Goldman can sell them back to the fund for 85 cents on the dollar. That would be a good business, especially if no court can review it.Our enemy has revealed itself, and it is our own government. The concentration of such outrageous power in government – the power to take the equivalent of half our annual federal budget and give it to anonymous investors – is nearly reaching the point at which it may not be revoked.It is only natural that we, dreaming of the possibility of our own riches, acquiesced in some of these financial schemes. Of that, we should not be ashamed. Many Americans may now be thinking, “But suppose someday I am a wealthy bond investor worth $50 million?” But you are not a wealthy bond investor and the value of your house and stock investments is going to drop, regardless of how much tax money the government gives to wealthy bond investors. This bailout is essentially the federal government saying to creditors, “Because the American consumer appears to be refusing to pay his debts, we will buy your claims on the consumer, and exchange them for money created by issuing Treasury bills, which is our promise to extract that money from American consumers using our taxation authority.”Some day our children will call on us to explain how our republic was lost. I cannot imagine the shame of facing a grown child to explain, “Foolishly, I thought I would get some of the money, too.”Because the American public has not been introduced to methods for controlling its government for generations for generations, I will suggest one called a general strike. This fundamental democratic power is where everyone decides to send a message to the government by not going to work, to school, shopping, nowhere.At this point in our history, very bad things are going to happen regardless of what we do. There is no government action that can alleviate the discomfort we must endure because of the wild speculation and reckless borrowing that ensued. What’s coming is inescapable. This is the critical time when charlatans among us will promise they can save us from the inevitable if we only allow them the power they need to save us. They are lying. It is time to earn our freedom. It is time to remind the government that we are Americans and we have a history of subjecting tyrannical governments to unpleasant consequences.Sean Olender is Bay Area attorney and writer.http://sfchronicle.us/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/09/23/ED0J132MOV.DTL

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:43 pm

Guest: When the Dow screams higher on a day when the news is lousy, it usually means that someone is trading on inside information. Probably someone with inside contacts has heard that the rescue deal will get approved – in some form or another.PeteCA

MASeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:43 pm

See… the way I see it, the Bk/Dr has to put up significantly more collateral then normal in order to receive cash back to shore up its nightly books.When 102% of collateral is not good enough, the Bk/Dr has to pony up more. …thus leaving the Bk/Dr with less cash Since they were forced to pony up more in the first place)On top of that, rates have turned negative on this short term cash (0.5% on the street) so they’re now paying over and above the cost of the actual dollars they get.This plan, cuts the bank out of the loop. They don’t have to pony up as much collateral, and yet have access to a bigger pool of cash.It also returns Ts bak to the Fed Balance sheet, to “reduce net risk” on the overall balance sheet as the fed plans to take on all this illiquid crap. (much like a CDO, mix the good T’s with the bad MBS and you reduce overall risk)….I’m still thinking LB.Miss America

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:45 pm

@Guest on 2008-09-26 14:38:12Maybe not, but one of the candidates has the intelligence and the inclination to ask the right questions. Pressure from an angry electorate is a powerful motivator.Good presidents are made by an engaged and unrelenting electorate.It sounds like Americans are finally engaged.

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:50 pm

From where I sit and speaking about reality:1. Congress will do the deal – that appears to be what the markets are saying, and what Mr. Bush just said: you have no choice, so thar.2. The FedRes will become the World’s Financial Authority with full immunity, beyond the jurisdiction of any and all governments and will not be required to disclose anything to anybody. This monster will grow into a religious type of faith-based fascist institution that will demand full subservience from all governments around the World.3. The FedRes will eventually absorb all the UN including the IMF, World Bank and BIS, etc., etc.4. Next week after the passage of the Bill, the FedRes will demand contributions from all Nations’ via their Central Banks – on demand, to continue ad infinitum, as the discretion of the FedRes for reasons of ‘global financial security’. Permanent drains will be opened to allow full control of international financial, monetary and credit control from the FedRes.5. John McCain will be directed to be President of the United States of America whereupon, executive presidential duties will be directed to continue the policies of the PNAC.Ho hum

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:50 pm

They’re in a jam for a LOT of reasons. They changed the status of Goldam and Morgan Stanley. Both were leveraged above 20:1. After they change, they need to downshift to 12:1. What that means in practical terms is that a LOT more assets need to be sold, and a much bigger deleveraging process needs to take place. The last thing that Paulson wants is a whole bunch of new firesale assets on the marketplace right now. So … it’s all supposed to get laundered in the so-called rescue plan. If that plan falls apart, massive deleveraging will happen, with much bigger volatility and chaos.Just my thoughts.BTW, I still think that the allegations about an attempt to cover illegal fraud in the mortage and CDS contracts need to be examined in detail. That alone should prevent fast passage of a rescue bill. If it doesn’t, this thing comes off looking like a laundering scheme to hide illegal transactions, and Bush comes off looking like he’s covering for his cronies in Washington. Who knows???PeteCA

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 3:57 pm

This is to Guest above. I did not twist any meaning; check your reading comprehension. I simply asked for clarification of his remarks from JGU. What are you on about?? Suggesting I was underhanded? Suggesting I am trying to thwart general principles?? Excuse me, but there are real people out here suffering real consequences! I strenuously object to using lingo like ‘general principles’ to thwart giving actual human beings help when they find themselves the innocent victims of circumstances beyond their control!

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:05 pm

GOOD NEWs!! Another priceless Richard Benson:“Trillion Dollar Treasury Deficits: Truth and Consequences”September 24, 2008One of my recent articles explained why the US Treasury deficit, without financial bailouts or government stimulus, was heading towards $600 billion a year. Another one forecasted that the bill for the financial bailouts would also be huge. This week, the cost of the bailout was confirmed with the nationalization of Fannie, Freddie, and AIG, added to the failure of Lehman Brothers, and the new massive $700 billion plus Treasury “Taxpayer Cash for Wall Street Trash” legislation. The total bill for this legislation plus existing bailouts will cost taxpayers more than a trillion dollars paid out over the next three years.It’s important to realize that this bailout plan adds nothing to economic growth and was necessary to prevent a worldwide global collapse of the financial system. The proposal will shift hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to purchase rotten financial assets from Wall Street institutions and banks for more than they are worth. This is all happening as our economy has been weakened by higher unemployment and non-financial corporate failures, and we’re bracing for a worldwide recession that is unfolding in never-ending newspaper headlines. Even now, before America has a newly-elected President and a fresh Congress in office, legislators in Congress have already started discussions to launch another stimulus package. My bet is that the stimulus needed will total at least $500 billion. Trillion dollar federal deficits for the next few years are now inevitable and as this truth sinks in, the consequences will be enormous. Here are the reasons (see chart below):Reported Outstanding Treasury Debt — 09/19/2008Current Debt held by the Public — $5,552,620,101,517.17 Intragovernmental Holdings — $4,174,389,518,377.17Total Public Debt Outstanding — $9,727,009,619,894.34The $4.2 Trillion of Intragovernmental Holdings is the “fictional borrowing” from Social Security and Medicare accounts. This fictional borrowing consists of social security taxes collected in excess of benefits paid out since the program began. In the past, the federal government profited nicely from excess social security taxes, but now the excess taxes have been spent on government projects like the war in Iraq, earmarks, etc. In a few short years when the Baby Boomers start to retire, the Social Security benefits paid out will exceed the taxes collected. When that happens, this fictional borrowing will flip back into real borrowing from the public. This means the government borrowing will be real, not fictional.Of the $5.5 Trillion to date that has been borrowed from the public by the Treasury, $3 trillion of it is Treasury debt owned by foreign central banks. It turns out that the Chinese and other Asian countries (along with the Gulf Arabs and many other governments) have been generous and ready lenders to the US Treasury. The question remains whether they will continue to be. It took our fine republic a few hundred years to run up $5.2 trillion in debt, but over the next three years Treasury borrowing could exceed $8 trillion, a staggering 60 percent increase in the real national debt. Is it rational to believe that foreigners will double their holdings of US Treasury debt from $3 Trillion to $6 Trillion in the next three years? Yes, indeed! Where else would they get that amount of money?The US Treasury will be facing major funding problems when they attempt to borrow the next three trillion dollars. The last few trillion they borrowed was a piece of cake despite the fact that Americans have no savings and, therefore, bought little of the new Treasury debt. Borrowing from foreign governments was also easy because of the way it was done (see below):First, Americans would borrow dollars using their credit cards and homes (home equity loans), and then send them to the Asians and Gulf Arabs in exchange for manufactured goods and oil. That gave the foreigners lots of dollars to buy Treasury debt and other US financial assets, such as the debt of Fannie & Freddie. Notice the cause and effect: First, the foreigners got the dollars then they invested them in US Treasuries. Americans used a massive dollar-trade deficit to finance the Treasury’s dollar-budget deficit. This paradigm is now over. America’s trade deficit is falling and the US is in recession.Our country’s ability to buy goods and services from abroad is diminishing and Santa is not coming this Christmas (just look around and you’ll see Christmas decorations already in some stores – how desperate is that?) Foreign manufacturers are going to be scratching their heads over the holidays wondering where the dollars that used to come from America suddenly went.The financial markets are going to slowly realize that the only reason foreign central banks bought Treasuries is because the US bought their goods first! China, as one example, realizes our money is not that good and will take an interest in holding dollars only because we are buying goods and services from them. Foreign countries have no reason to buy massive amounts of Treasury debt unless we buy something from them first.So here we are now with the Treasury deficit that will quickly zoom past the trade deficit by several hundred billion dollars; the Treasury debt still can’t be sold to American savers because America doesn’t have savers; and, we are no longer buying enough goods from foreigners and sending them our dollars to finance the Treasury deficit.What are the obvious consequences of Trillion dollar Treasury deficits? One such consequence is called “Crowding Out”. Crowding Out is the phenomenon that occurs when the US Treasury sells debt in a world where foreigners and Americans are no longer flush with dollars. That means that the dollars to buy the debt must be squeezed out of the financial system and interest rates are forced up. Trillion dollar deficits aren’t chump change! However, squeezing a trillion dollars out of the money markets of the world is clearly impossible and the only remaining option to fund the US Treasury’s insatiable appetite is through “monetization”. Monetization means that the Federal Reserve would step in and print up new money out of thin air and buy the Treasury debt. If that occurs, monetary growth rates would soar and, in turn, create very high inflation as too many dollars start chasing too few goods. Rising inflation forces interest rates up, and rising interest rates always have devastating consequences for the prices of financial assets such as stocks and bonds.So, how will we all be affected? First, start reading about what life has been like in the Banana Republic and in countries like Argentina, where the inflation rate in 2002 rose to 20 percent following the devaluation of the country’s currency, the peso. Brace yourself for several years of rising inflation and interest rates and, by all means, protect your portfolio. Remember, cash is king again.My investment plan remains the same. I expect real assets will greatly out-perform financial assets. First, I want to buy gold and silver in physical form whenever I can. In the world of inflation, while cash is king, gold is the emperor! Second, I look to accumulate real assets if they are quality assets and the prices have crashed down. So, I do believe that in a few years even real estate will again be a great inflation hedge!http://www.sfgroup.org/Trillion%20Dollar%20Deficits.htm

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:05 pm

Interesting that Wachovia stocks got hammered today, after the WaMu failure. See WB on stockcharts.com. Right now Cititgroup and Bank of America seem relatively unaffected. Since tha ban on the shorting of shares is still applicable to banks and financial companies, it appears that people holding Wachovia stocks must be selling them like mad.PeteCA

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:11 pm

That’s not realistic.Just a call for non-payment. Less work, less hassle, on point.Ex: “We won’t pay until they pay”.In other words, regular people stop paying on their debts until the financial sector is forced to acknowledge its debts.That will attract immediate attention.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:23 pm

HERE’S WHAT WE NEED TO DO FOLKS …”HALF-MAST DAY” FOR OUR US FLAGSIf they pass the rescue bill soon, I’m suggesting that all American citizens who are concerned should fly their flags at half-mast for the next week. Because this pretty much means an all-out assault on the US taxpayer, and the end of the free economic system as we’ve come to know it in this country.Please copy this message, and e-mail it to any American who cares.PeteCA

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:25 pm

Don’t think that this possibility hasn’t been entertained by many folks on the outside looking in. The last eight years of American policy have advanced this agenda at a pace that I once thought unimaginable.It’s getting harder to believe that there’s any alternative now.Wild!

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:29 pm

What if the third plan, to be “unveiled” I guess tonight, is just another fraud? I think it will be.It has elements of the Paulson plan, which is bad, and the McCain plan (gov’t insures toxic assets) which is also bad.How much do we charge for the insurance? I’m sure not enough. And now that they have AIG, which is affiliated with the CIA, they can have these insurance policies issued through AIG and we will never know how they perform. It will become a CIA “black program”.We need this: we need terms like the government got for AIG. We need to take heavy equity in all these banks, and lend them money on terms very favorable to the government. This semi-nationalization of the failing and weak banks will very likely provide a windfall to the taxpayer!The government, for the first time in countless generations, is in a position to drive a hard bargain with the banks. Let’s do it!

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:32 pm

I’m more interested in fighting them tooth and nail to keep them from passing any of these bad ideas.I don’t want to think about what comes after, if they do. But it won’t be fun.

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:35 pm

He says the bailout “was necessary” as if it’s a fait accompli. It’s not.WE HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO FIGHT.

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:42 pm

Still I will not bail out Warren Buffett. He thought he was betting on a sure thing when he bought into Goldman; he says he assumed the bailout would pass. Let him be mistaken this time.If Goldman and Morgan need to delever, then they need to delever. They can probably keep those assets but upgrade their capital sufficiently, by delivering 79.9% of their equity to the government. For Goldman this will be easy because it retains about 85% of its equity internally; they only IPO’d 15%. For Morgan, which probably has worse problems anyway, massive new equity issuance will be necessary.

AfASeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

Is it safe to say now that the Government is one-handed now and can save only one of these:- The money/credit market,- The Treasury market, or- The dollar??

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 4:54 pm

From where I sit, Obama (and I’m a disenfranchised conservative) will be the next president of the United States and all plans for one-world control and central planning have been blown asunder by the arrogance and hubris of the neocons in the Bush Administration. Even the Council of Foreign Relations is in tears over its smashed agendaRemember back to Desert Storm? Herbert Walker Bush was reviving the age-old term “new world order,” and Secretary of State James Baker was pulling all the nations of the world together. But, in my opinion, the current on-slaught of the neo-conservatives has all but destroyed any political potential for that kind of government. They have destroyed most foreign political loyalty to the US. It has taken longer for the financial empire to fall apart but, assuredly, the neocons and their selected candidate McCain, will ride it off the cliff if they get their name attached to the bailout.It’s a Democrat year: The neocon Bush Administration with its destruction of civil liberties, implementation of torture, destruction of the Palestinian peace process, pre-emptive wars, wire-tapping, green lighting of any kind of Wall Street excess, appointment of Democrat/Goldman Sachs/Bailout Author Paulson to the Treasury…you name it…killed the Republican Party.But, after all this, as a former Republican, I feel obligated to say that the worst thing this group of neo-conservative Republicans on the Hill have done is to make this a Democrat year.

AnonymousSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:03 pm

JGU has a excellent point. If the real estate values are not brought back by market forces, then they will fall harder in the future. If housing values have gone up on average 85% in 10 years a bubble or correction is going to happen. My family has a 30 year fixed rate which I thought was the responsible course of action. Yes, I was tempted for the ARM’s and lower rates but I knew housing prices would not go up forever nor would rates stay low- forever. Now I must help the bankers, the brokers and the irresponsible.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:05 pm

Richard Benson’s latest article is an example of truth being trampled by politics. Richard Benson always provides the truth on what has happened and where we are headed, but, at the same time, decides disappointingly, to lend his name to the fix that won’t fix. I posted the Benson article and in perusing it too quickly missed the point you have just made. It is a big disappointment to me also.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:08 pm

Artichoke: I suspect they wanted to pass this rescue effort by today (Fri), and will do everything in their power to sign an agreement by the end of this weekend. What comes after is an enormous chasm of confidence between the American people and their Government.PeteCA

subgeniusSeptember 26th, 2008 at 5:48 pm

though listening to the latter part, the journalists show little understanding of the true nature of modern money…

kilgoresSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:06 pm

That’s my concern, too. I am less concerned about moral hazard than masses of ordinary people without jobs, living on the street, and always hungry. The plan is not about bailing out Wall Street, but about preventing a systemic collapse of the entire financial system and the real economy. I strongly disagree with the notion that we should simply “let the chips fall where they may.” If that makes me a socialist, then that’s a title I proudly embrace.SWK

Average JaneSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:28 pm

You’re one hundred percent right, mammon. This is a HUGE trap for the dems. The American people are way ahead of these idiots. We are on our own, folks.

kilgoresSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:28 pm

I should have figured you were Scotch-Irish!* Wonderful!*My use of the term ‘Scotch-Irish’ is no error. This spelling dates from Elizabethan times, and is still widely used in the southern states of the U.S.

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:39 pm

Mr. Schiff is primarily concerned with hyperinflation. As far as I know, he has seen these current events coming longer than anyone except Ron Paul. May I suggest you visit his web site http://www.europac.net/radioshow_archives.asp# and listen to his recent radio address? I don’t believe anyone is saying to STOP lending. His idea is to take our medicine and cure the disease, not the symptoms.hlowe

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:51 pm

Listen up!In consideration of today’s markets ….If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00.With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000.With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left.If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock, you would have $49.00 left.If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left.But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00.Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.This is called the 401-Keg Planhlowe

Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MOSeptember 26th, 2008 at 6:58 pm

I would like to discuss very briefly not just the effects but also the cause of all this financial and economic turmoil. I think it can literally be pinned on The Executive Branch and also The Legislative Branch of our Federal Government. The current administration wrote a budget that was deep in the red, for too long. It was in the red by 700 to 950 billion per year for eight years! The Congress approved and ratified the budget that was deep in the red, and this was totally irresponsible, and was financial negligence. The House Ways and Means are at fault, as are all the other government scoundrels. Then this red ink government budget, that was written in the red and approved by the entire congress eight times in a row, this forced the Federal Reserve to force the Treasury to issue fixed income, Government Bonds, Notes, and Bills, in an effort to finance the (wrongful and for no reason) war against the mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. This borrowing crowded out borrowing, and crowded out investment, and wrecked the exchange rate of the US Dollar, depreciating it severely over the past eight years. It incited the credit crunch, because all that money (literally trillions) was sponged up and had to be loaned to the sovereign entity of the USA, rather than going to things like housing both commercially and residentially. Eventually, the crowding out of investment and crowding out of borrowing made housing depreciate. With housing depreciating, foreclosures increased, both the prevalence and probability and frequency of foreclosures increased. People lost homes, and values deteriorated substantially. After that the Credit Default Swaps and the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations began to lose value rather rapidly. This hurt items on the balance sheets of the vast majority of all the major financial institutions. It wasn’t necessarily a liquidity issue, it was a balance sheet issue, and a market that began to resemble a bubble. The banks (meaning all the financial institutions and the entire financial sector) decided to hang on rather than initially dump these CMOs and CDSs, this produced further losses on items on their balance sheets. Eventually, the stock market suffered globally. Bank, brokerage, and insurance company shares plummeted— taking the stock indices with it. Funny how everyone just wants to blame bankers, when it’s the executive branch and the legislative branch that financed a war for no reason (it certainly was political risk!), which required the government to borrow excessively and recklessly which crowded out investment and borrowing, which incited a credit crunch, and financial turmoil and economic turmoil. I find it rather pathetic and lame as hell beyond belief that the entire negligent Congress wants to try to finance a bailout of the financial sector via the use of some more excessive and reckless borrowing (700 billion or so they say, at least at first, and it may very well be much more, maybe 4 trillion and 500 billion). It was reckless and excessive borrowing that got us into this trouble, and now they want to recklessly and excessively borrow some more, digging us into the red some more, to try to help the situation. PATHETIC! Also, if they take over the financial sector, they will be indirectly taking over the entire medical care sector and healthcare, this will produce massive and huge deficits. I am strongly against any type of bailout engineered by the negligent congress… what they should do is regulate themselves. They should design and engineer, and write and draft budgets that are balanced. Yes, a balanced budget from now on going forward, or how about one that is in the green, a budget in surplus. They should not overspend, and crowd out investment and borrowing— or the coherence of the USA will cease to exist. They are pushing the USA towards a total default of US Treasury Securities and a default of the US Dollar if they do not constrain their spending. They should try to be responsible. Where will this 700+ billion dollar bailout come from? Will they tax us? Will they borrow it? Will they print the money?? All three either together in any way, or any combination of the three will have dreadful long term consequences. They should literally do nothing. I hope to god the “bailout” fails! Let the banks fail, they took risk investing in CMOs, and the risk takers should fail. Maybe there will be bank-runs and more bank/brokerage/insurance failures. There could be riots. Eventually, new banks, with responsible boards will come out of the woodwork. The Congress should do it’s best to clean up it’s own act, and that means it should never approve of massive government budgets in the red, ever again! It also should not tax the hell out of everyone, so no higher taxes, no no, lower tax rates increase government revenue, I love dynamic scoring. It should also not print money excessively. How can the Government pretend so seriously, that more borrowing of 700 billion dollars (printing of money, or taxing) is the solution to our problems, when it (where ‘it’ is reckless and excessive borrowing) is the entire reason we’re in such a difficult mess right now?!?!?! Maybe the Government should just tell everyone that they vow to stop borrowing excessively (which certainly has crowded out borrowing and investment), maybe the Government should tell everyone to keep their head up, and pretend their home is rising in value?!

Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MOSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:01 pm

I would like to discuss very briefly not just the effects but also the cause of all this financial and economic turmoil. I think it can literally be pinned on The Executive Branch and also The Legislative Branch of our Federal Government. The current administration wrote a budget that was deep in the red, for too long. It was in the red by 700 to 950 billion per year for eight years! The Congress approved and ratified the budget that was deep in the red, and this was totally irresponsible, and was financial negligence. The House Ways and Means are at fault, as are all the other government scoundrels. Then this red ink government budget, that was written in the red and approved by the entire congress eight times in a row, this forced the Federal Reserve to force the Treasury to issue fixed income, Government Bonds, Notes, and Bills, in an effort to finance the (wrongful and for no reason) war against the mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. This borrowing crowded out borrowing, and crowded out investment, and wrecked the exchange rate of the US Dollar, depreciating it severely over the past eight years. It incited the credit crunch, because all that money (literally trillions) was sponged up and had to be loaned to the sovereign entity of the USA, rather than going to things like housing both commercially and residentially. Eventually, the crowding out of investment and crowding out of borrowing made housing depreciate. With housing depreciating, foreclosures increased, both the prevalence and probability and frequency of foreclosures increased. People lost homes, and values deteriorated substantially. After that the Credit Default Swaps and the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations began to lose value rather rapidly. This hurt items on the balance sheets of the vast majority of all the major financial institutions. It wasn’t necessarily a liquidity issue, it was a balance sheet issue, and a market that began to resemble a bubble. The banks (meaning all the financial institutions and the entire financial sector) decided to hang on rather than initially dump these CMOs and CDSs, this produced further losses on items on their balance sheets. Eventually, the stock market suffered globally. Bank, brokerage, and insurance company shares plummeted— taking the stock indices with it. Funny how everyone just wants to blame bankers, when it’s the executive branch and the legislative branch that financed a war for no reason (it certainly was political risk!), which required the government to borrow excessively and recklessly which crowded out investment and borrowing, which incited a credit crunch, and financial turmoil and economic turmoil. I find it rather pathetic and lame as hell beyond belief that the entire negligent Congress wants to try to finance a bailout of the financial sector via the use of some more excessive and reckless borrowing (700 billion or so they say, at least at first, and it may very well be much more, maybe 4 trillion and 500 billion). It was reckless and excessive borrowing that got us into this trouble, and now they want to recklessly and excessively borrow some more, digging us into the red some more, to try to help the situation. PATHETIC! Also, if they take over the financial sector, they will be indirectly taking over the entire medical care sector and healthcare, this will produce massive and huge deficits. I am strongly against any type of bailout engineered by the negligent congress… what they should do is regulate themselves. They should design and engineer, and write and draft budgets that are balanced. Yes, a balanced budget from now on going forward, or how about one that is in the green, a budget in surplus. They should not overspend, and crowd out investment and borrowing— or the coherence of the USA will cease to exist. They are pushing the USA towards a total default of US Treasury Securities and a default of the US Dollar if they do not constrain their spending. They should try to be responsible. Where will this 700+ billion dollar bailout come from? Will they tax us? Will they borrow it? Will they print the money?? All three either together in any way, or any combination of the three will have dreadful long term consequences. They should literally do nothing. I hope to god the “bailout” fails! Let the banks fail, they took risk investing in CMOs, and the risk takers should fail. Maybe there will be bank-runs and more bank/brokerage/insurance failures. There could be riots. Eventually, new banks, with responsible boards will come out of the woodwork. The Congress should do it’s best to clean up it’s own act, and that means it should never approve of massive government budgets in the red, ever again! It also should not tax the hell out of everyone, so no higher taxes, no no, lower tax rates increase government revenue, I love dynamic scoring. It should also not print money excessively. How can the Government pretend so seriously, that more borrowing of 700 billion dollars (printing of money, or taxing) is the solution to our problems, when it (where ‘it’ is reckless and excessive borrowing) is the entire reason we’re in such a difficult mess right now?!?!?! Maybe the Government should just tell everyone that they vow to stop borrowing excessively (which certainly has crowded out borrowing and investment), maybe the Government should tell everyone to keep their head up, and pretend their home is rising in value?!~ Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MO

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:03 pm

I can’t express in words how relieved and hopeful your predictions make me, and probably a large portion of the world, feel.I’m a lefty and a foreigner but I’ve felt the pain of true American conservatives over the last 8 years. I’ve felt for Americans in general, wondering if and when they were going to wake up and take back control of their country.I have faith in the democratic principles that America was founded on and I long to see them shine once again.This has been a very dark period for the rest of the world.Here’ hoping that you are right.We’re mad out here … but we’re forgiving.

InNoSiNzSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:20 pm

Just got an email from Motley fool, he really is a fool. Can’t believe he’s for it with equity stakes.————————–Dear Fools:We need your help.Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has put together a plan that is actively under debate and allows the Treasury to invest in assets that are crushing bank balance sheets. We view this plan as being an important step in allowing the global financial system to recapitalize itself. We agree with financial intellectual titans Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, as well as both presidential candidates, that the Paulson Plan needs to be passed and will benefit Main Street.We believe that if the Paulson Plan is done correctly, American taxpayers will profit not only from the return of lending capacity to our banks, but also from these troubled investments. However, the plan should embrace the tenets of free-market capitalism. The government should demand equity stakes in the banks.We think taxpayers deserve to benefit from a deal soundly rooted in free-market principles. We, the undersigned, encourage you to call the people who represent you in the House and Senate and demand that the approved deal include provisions for equity ownership. Go to http://www.house.gov and http://www.senate.gov to find the phone numbers for your elected representatives.Finally, even though these are extraordinary times, we stand by our belief that the best way to build long-term wealth is through equity ownership. Just look at who is doing a lot of buying of late — Warren Buffett.We encourage you to take a few minutes — now! — to call your elected officials and let them know that there needs to be an equity component for taxpayers.Onward,Tom Gardner, CEO and Co-Founder, The Motley FoolScott Schedler, President, The Motley FoolBill Mann, Senior Advisor, Motley Fool Hidden Gems, Pay Dirt, and Global Gains——————————————

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:24 pm

…Although Mr Forst is expected toreturn to Harvard within a matter of weeks,his presence at Treasury raised speculation thathe could be chosen to run the “Tarp”, possiblyalongside Karthik Ramanathan, another formerGoldman banker who has been at the Treasury forthree years and was recently appointed to the roleof acting assistant secretary for financial markets….

Entire FT Article => Paulson taps Forst as adviser on plan

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:29 pm

I just got an email, too:Subject: The Birk Economic Recovery PlanI’m against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.Instead, I’m in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up.So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.Of course, it would NOT be tax free.So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.That sends $25,500,000,0 00 right back to Uncle Sam.But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.A husband and wife has $595,000.00.What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.Repay college loans – what a great boost to new gradsPut away money for college – it’ll be thereSave in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.Buy a new car – create jobsInvest in the market – capital drives growthPay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improvesEnable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or elseRemember this is for every adult US Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back.And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( “vote buy” ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!As for AIG – liquidate it.Sell off its parts.Let American General go back to being American General.Sell off the real estate.Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.Sure it’s a crazy idea that can “never work.”But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!How do you spell Economic Boom?I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC.And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.Ahhh…I feel so much better getting that off my chest.Kindest personal regards,BirkT. J. Birkenmeier, A Creative Guy & Citizen of the RepublicPS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it’s either good for a laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use $85 Billion!!

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:46 pm

The new version of bailout plan is Bad.They are desperately trying to pass the new Republican bailout plan this weekend. There is no material changes in the new bailout plan and it is just as bad. We Americans should NOT support the new bailout plan either.For what I heard, the new bailout plan will have the troubled banks buy insurance for their bad assets.My take on this is follows:Who is going to write the insurance policy on the bad assets? American International Group.Now the government owns 79.9% of AIG. Any policy loss on the AIG will be basically passed through to the government, and it essentially is another form of government bailout, but taxpayers won’t know them directly. Bad assets are bad assets, you can’t buy insurance to turn bad assets into good assets. I have no confidence that they will dare to price the insurance high enough. They will make it “affordable” to the banks, i.e. bail them out.Today, Washington Mutual failed. No big deal. Its assets and deposit accounts are taken over by JP Morgan. Government didn’t need to spend anything to bail it out. It didn’t cost taxpayer anything. The head of FDIC is doing a great job for the US. The longer the delay of any bailout plans, the more troubled banks may fail, and the less it would cost of taxpayer money.There are loads of toxic assets sitting on the biggest banks today.JP Morgan has the biggest derivatives book, from itself, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual (53 billion of Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage).Bank of American, from its own trading plus Countrywide and Merrill Lynch.Citibank, from its own tradingWells FargoWachovia, rumor is going that it may sell itself to Citibankand all the foreign banks that we’re supposed to bail out too.The government is going to do something about it. It won’t let all the banks fail. If it is going to lend money to the troubled banks, it will have to take equity from the banks while giving out the loans. A model followed by Fannie, Freddie, and AIG.We can set up a National Asset Management entity, under the jurisdiction of the Congress (not under the Treasury or the Fed). We will appoint academics (finance, accounting, economics) to assess the value of the assets and determine how much equity to take away from each bank. This National Asset Management entity will play the same role later on in dealing with the big 3 auto manufactures, airlines, etc. When dust settles down, it can sell the equities to the public and channel the proceeds to pay the national debts.This is what I think will solve the problem and won’t cost taxpayer money in the long run. In fact, it will generate some very nice profits when it sells the equities.

Commissar 4822September 26th, 2008 at 7:51 pm

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.numbers in millions:$85,000 / 200 adults = $425 per adult:^(

Mother of GodSeptember 26th, 2008 at 7:59 pm

it was up to the citizens to create the climate within which congress could stand up to the legal thieves.the citizens have done this.we have not failed to express our views this time.no one should ever forget this fact.

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:09 pm

I second that motion …Did you happen to catch a linkthat I posted in a previous threadabout -> A New Bank to Save Our Infrastructure ?I was hoping that the really wise members of thisforum could help visualize/articulate how to turn these currentlyunproductive (toxic)assets into productive assetsthat could really turn the Economy and the Country in avery positive direction with solid economic productivity.If you read the article, you will see that this New Bankis almost ready to go and is accessible by the players thatare at the negotiating table now. Reward the taxpayers bycapitalizing this New Bank , and letting all profits from rescue/bailout flow into the New Bank, creating jobs, updating infrastructure ,etc.Maybe its too simplistic … Let me know what you think…

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:18 pm

Perhaps I didn’t see where you address this, but how do we convert toxic things like CDO^2 into real money for infrastructure funding? I think you’re addressing a different problem, although it’s also a critical one.

taxpaying sahmSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:24 pm

I’m fully awake now, and ashamed that I wasn’t much sooner. I’ve written my reps & senators multiple times over the past week, protested yesterday, and have been working to ‘wake up’ everybody I know and interact with. The majority of them, even the ones who pooh-poohed & resisted everything to begin with, are now seeing the light. We’re working to get back on track, we really are. Although things look very grim right now, I still believe that it’s never too late to change.

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:49 pm

The reason I replied to your comment in this sub-thread,is that I admire that your solution entertains a much widerlonger-term vision of the reality of subsequent “bailout” requests.That said, I still think that most of us need to see a long termphysical and fiscal commitment to our country and our people in orderto stomach the “bailout of the wreckless” and have real confidencethat our Economy will recover.To that point, I think that the Congress would do itself andthe entire country rightfully by attaching the capitalizationof a good bank with good, productive economic goals to counter thetoxicity that lingers to this point.I honestly do not know how OR even if there is way to extract profitfrom these currently unproductive (toxic)assets,That is why I put it out here, for those who might have thatexpertise to ponder.From my very limited knowledge of these toxic assets,I am led to believe that ultimately, if well managed,they could produce a profit, but no one can/will reallysay at the moment. The appearance of Paulson & Co. to createthis Toxic Dump/SuperSIV leads me to believe some percentage ofit will yield profit. It is that profit that I am suggesting, throughlegislation, be directed to flow in to this New Infrastructure Bank that would alreadybe capitalized, regardless.Does this make any sense on any level?

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:49 pm

Speaking of humour:”Incompetence and stupidity, brought about by a leadership crisis, is what brings us screaming to this point in time”. Peter J Bolton June 2005I must report to y’all that myself and a colleague have found a new source of slap stick comic humour; which is:watching all these leadership morons run around the world, talking absolute garbage and showing clearly that they are mostly so ignorant and downright stupid, that if humanity were truly in their hands, man would have become extinct within one generation of emergence.Some little examples come to mind:1. Madam Palin says that she only has one flag in her office which is that of Israel (oh, my God, help us in our hour of need),2. The Australian Government is giving the Banks A$4b, but only in exchange for higher rated mortgages (?) and the hope is that maybe, perhaps, well anyway, we tried, that a decrease in interest rates will be a result for home borrowers. In The FedRes We Trust. Long Live Pope Benjamen. (Damn, we all know that they have been force feeding the Banks for months now so we are not sure if this is more or just the justification; we suspect, more).3. From Alfred E Neuman we hear that ‘big problems require big solutions…’ ? My education is supposed to begin here?4. Paulson on his knees? No comment.5. The Democrats are scolding the House Republicans for delaying this BAIL-OUT of Bankers?6. The Republicans are delaying the Federal Reserve Catholic Establishment Act of 2008?7. The guy who thinks that he is the Prime Minister of Australia, Mr. TinTin Krudd demanded economic reform in his speech before the United Nations yesterday – as if he knew anything. Rudder-less comes to mind.Or maybe all this is just fatal conceit? Of this, there is no doubt at all. Whatever, it is far better than TV and or shopping.Ho diddly hum

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 8:56 pm

I must ask:Is life only about “Republicans” and “Democrats”?Is there nothing else, for you and me?Is this where the American people are?

tyaresunSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:08 pm

Artichoke,Totally agree. Bernanke and Paulson are working for the banks and against the American people. They should be asked to resign right away.If the bailout plan includes clawback provisions, how far back will they go? Will they go far back enough and ask Paulson to return all his bonuses? I clearly see a confilct of interest here.

PhilTSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:10 pm

(Here’s the rest of my reply that was somehowomitted from above…)If something like the Paulson Plan actuallybecomes law, then my suggestion could be part of that.If something like your Nat’l Asset Mgmnt. entitybecomes law, the profits that you’re hopeful forcould also be channeled into the New Infrastructure Bank.

Average JaneSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:26 pm

Hah! GREAT post, Peter JB.And by the way, did y’all hear that the former head of WaMu, who held his post for all of three weeks, is walking away with an $18 million bonus? That’s a hell of an hourly rate.

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:27 pm

Validation of my Hypothesis that Pope Benanke (and Paulson) ONLY want a State of Non-Jurisdiction for the Federal Reserve:”On the Level of Thought and Care That Went into the Paulson Plan”"From Forbes (hat tip reader The Social Pathologist):In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy.”"It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/Ho diddly hum

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 9:32 pm

Only USD18m; Oh dear. So little?Then this is it; the clear indication that times are really bad indeed.Ho hum

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:04 pm

their stupid scare tactics wont workif market tanked, we can then easily trace it back to the pigmen (if indeed thats the plan)ORmaybe they know the bill will be passed

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:16 pm

@Sean Olender:” Because the American public has not been introduced to methods for controlling its government for generations for generations, I will suggest one called a general strike. This fundamental democratic power is where everyone decides to send a message to the government by not going to work, to school, shopping, nowhere.”At this point in our history, very bad things are going to happen regardless of what we do. There is no government action that can alleviate the discomfort we must endure because of the wild speculation and reckless borrowing that ensued. What’s coming is inescapable. This is the critical time when charlatans among us will promise they can save us from the inevitable if we only allow them the power they need to save us. They are lying. It is time to earn our freedom. It is time to remind the government that we are Americans and we have a history of subjecting tyrannical governments to unpleasant consequences.”Yes. Yes. A general strike where no one goes to work, to school, shopping, nowhere. If 10% or 20% of the people will do this, the government will be helpless to retaliate.This is not sacrificing one’s blood as did the farmers who stood at Lexington and Concord, or losing our property as did many of the signers of our Declaration of Independence who stood to forfeit their lives if they did not succeed. We are fighting for the same thing: for the right to work and keep the product of our labor.That’s what they want to take away, and put it in their pockets. The War of Independence was Englishmen against Englishmen, each fighting for what they believed to be their country. This is Americans fighting against criminals, hoodlums, pirates — people who have no country.Let it begin here! We are Americans. It is time to earn our freedom.

PeterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:23 pm

“If something like the Paulson Plan actuallybecomes law, then my suggestion could be part of that”It becomes ‘something’ outside and beyond the Law! It is a fait accompli!It can never be brought back under Law, except by force!And damn it man (respectfully offered), this is what the United Nations has struggled for for decades and which the European Union has become.A home of forceful, efficient and thoughtless bureaucrats or as Orwell would have called – pure evil.No PhilT – this is NOT the way for civilization to proceed; immhoMan must learn his lessons at individual levels, and learn to live in freedom without politicians.Ho hum

artichokeSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:51 pm

So *ahem, back on topic please* what do you all think about establishing a National Asset Management Entity, and taking heavy equity stakes in exchange for bailouts, determined on an economic basis by an independent panel of academics?

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 10:55 pm

And now Barney Frank is sticking to that number “there must be $700B available”Only if you pay for it, boyfriend!

GuestSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:18 pm

@PeterJB”Is life only about “Republicans” and “Democrats”?Is there nothing else, for you and me?Is this where the American people are?”I can’t speak for Americans, but I didn’t know that caring about other human beings was a crime until I was exposed to and began to understand Republican free market ideology/neoliberalism. And I’m no spring chicken — humanity has seen this play before.Now I know that there’s not a whole lot out there for you and me (figuratively speaking).– a foreigner –

PterJBSeptember 26th, 2008 at 11:59 pm

Takes us foreigners, oui?This deal is, forgive the expression, but “crap”. It has nothing to do with values, civilization, socio-economics, humanity, people, tradition, culture, logic, physics, education, health, etc., etc. It is pure unadulterated “moral hazard” where the bestiality of humanity is gorging in a feeding frenzy upon its own as if there is no tomorrow.We should be ashamed of these current events and insane considerations. Mr Brown of the UK states that he supports bailing out the USA despite admitting to NOT knowing the details?? This is pure insanity.Whatever happens in Congress during the few coming days is meaningless except to show the depravity in which leadership is prepared to indulge themselves and the people are prepared to accept in their gullibility; the result will be the same; total global socio-economic collapse.A Dark Age that we shall learn to regret.If they get the deal – the meek shall inherit the Earth and will rule as before; if not,the people will learn their lessons and the Phoenix will eventually rise, anew.Demographically syntaxed; your mileage will vary.Ho hum

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:09 am

700 Billion dollars divided by 300 million americans is approximately 2,333.33 …. some idiot on here was claiming it was like 450,000 US Dollars or something!

Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MOSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:16 am

Also… when and if the GSEs fail (all the Government Sponsored Enterprises), when they fail, they will have to transfer approximately 5 trillion dollars of debt to the sovereign entity of the USA, this will be very harmful for the US Dollar. I expect the US Dollar to continue to fail miserably, and to depreciate a lot going forward. Also, when and if the negligent congress takes over the financial sector (with their stupid “bailout”), then they just take over healthcare and medical care indirectly, by taking over insurance (banks and also brokerages) then they will have some more totally MASSIVE deficits to finance going forward annually. The stupidity of the Congress (the legislative branch) and the executive branch (the president) has never ceased to amaze me! Before ya know it, President Bush will be responsible for not only declaring war on the mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq at a cost of 5 trillion dollars (the debt outstanding rose from like 5 to like 10 recently), but since the GSEs failed as a result of that, there’s another five, and then medical care will cost TONS also annually… Bush should be remembered for increasing the USA’s Total Government Debt Outstanding from approximately 4.5 trillion to approximately 15 trillion or more, plus interest due too.~ Andrew G. Bernhardt

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:21 am

Sorry idiot, even 700 billion dollars divided by 300 million americans is just $2,333.33— NOT four-hundred-thousand!!!

Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MOSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:28 am

Why do the profoundly compellingly f-ing retarded Congressmen believe that borrowing (or taxing, or printing of) 700 billion dollars (or more, or less) is going to somehow make things better?? They (the Congressmen) got us into this mess by borrowing too much in the first place, borrowing more, will only make things worse! Taxing for the revenue, and/or the printing of the money (the 700 billion) will also make things worse!!! Are they stupid or something?? Can’t fix stupid eh? No amount of money will fix the stupid legislative branch, the stupid executive branch, or the stupid judicial branch… and they are all at fault! Perhaps, all the stupid americans in the USA are at fault for voting them into office. Here comes The Greator Depression! Just like in 1857!~ Andrew G. Bernhardt

Andrew G. Bernhardt, St. Louis, MOSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:34 am

Oh, and I forgot!!! WHO IS GOING TO BAIL OUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE?? WHO IS GOING TO BAIL OUT THE TREASURY???~ Andrew Gaston Bernhardt

Robert WongSeptember 27th, 2008 at 2:03 am

With its greed, Wall Street holds its supremacy for decades; with its greed, Wall Street fell from grace overnight. Wall Street is a reckless battleground where only the greediest will be rewarded. It is true before and it is more true with the generous bailout.

Alessandro - http://castellidicarte.blogspot.com/September 27th, 2008 at 4:24 am

FED is being bailed out by the Treasury right now. This is what the whole $700bn bill is all about.Treasury is too big to bail. Will default. In due time.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 5:29 am

Is anyone else just disgusted with this whole thing?How about a show of hands – who wants a “do-over”? Let’s go back to the beginning and create a new government where lobbying is illegal, congress is not inhabited by millionaires and THE PEOPLE are represented.I weep for our future – for our children’s future. This is not what I had hoped for them.I am more convinced today that no 2 party system can stand – we must add more voices to the 2 bickering sides currently ruining the country. The whole of the government is corrupt and badly in need of change.

Alessandro - http://castellidicarte.blogspot.com/September 27th, 2008 at 5:53 am

What’s up with Cramer? Is this one more loaded gun pointed at the head of Congress? Is this a huge (short term) buy signal?Cramer: “… keep on selling into any strength. Deal or no deal, now’s the time to play defense.”http://www.cnbc.com/id/26906947/Cramer: “In a market as uncertain as this, investors should consider gold, Cramer said during Monday’s show.”http://www.cnbc.com/id/26840502/

AnonymousSeptember 27th, 2008 at 6:45 am

What’s the big deal ? So what, we are having a recession.I listened to N. R. and have read everything he has written. If the recession began 08 Jan. and will last 18 months with 8% unemployment, so what.He has said that we will not fall into a depression.I do admit, that I read all these comments to try and get a better understanding but the comments seem to say much worse then what N. R. is saying.Am I missing something ?It does seem that t.v. wall st people are very emotional and talk as if the world is ending but that’s entertainment, so maybe many who comment on here are the same.Like many entertainers of today, they have no clue of reality and their life styles show it. It seems bankers and the like from real estate brokers right up the congress and the fed are on equal footing with brittny stears.Any way, If The Professor is saying something more then what I seem to get can some one please as simply as possible tell me what I maybe missing, if anything.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 8:07 am

why hasn’t home price mark to market yet? i mean 50-70cents on a dollar? the sooner we mark down the home price, the sooner we recover from this housing crisis. by the way, this site need to find the way to wrap line to screen. it is painful to have to move scroll bar to read the post.

AnonymousSeptember 27th, 2008 at 8:59 am

Well I’m not clueless and I don’t have a Brittany Spears lifestyle. I agree with some things Nouriel says, not everything. I agree with the gist of his objections to the current proposal, and his dismay that real economists (besides BB) have not been consulted in a proper fashion.Now that Nouriel has come out clearly against the bailout, which I don’t think he did at the beginning, we are agreeing on that very important point.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am

6. AND I will let you find the head of your son’s rockinghorse in your bed if you don’t give me the million bucks… ;-)

AnonymousSeptember 27th, 2008 at 9:21 am

a real economist (and one of the best) was consulted after this disgraceful plan was presented…Senator Shelby directly received this report:http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/documents/Final-Bailout-White-Paper.pdfThe result is that Shelby has been a significant force in rejecting the plan…as to whether a reasonable plan is developed…I do not know if a bunch of senators and congressmen are capable of doing such a thing.I believe the market will vote next week…likely with the biggest crash in 30 years.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 9:37 am

Cramer is an alumnus of Goldman Sachs. As Ben Stein said, it’s an organization that operates like the K.G.B. Beware his motives.

kilgoresSeptember 27th, 2008 at 9:59 am

Unless I am misreading him, Dr. Roubini has not come out against A “bailout,” but against the terms of the particular plan now being negotiated.SWK

kilgoresSeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:05 am

Dr. Roubini has consistently predicted a recession, but he has also underscored the attendant risk of a systemic financial collapse and ensuing potential wholesale failure of the economy. The question devolves to the depth and breadth of the recession, and whether it will remain a recession or become a Great Recession* lasting years.SWK*Before the Great Depression, all recessions were referred to as “depressions.” After the Big One in the 1930s, economic downturns began to be referred to as “recessions” so that folks wouldn’t freak out.

OuterBeltwaySeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:14 am

Regarding last night’s Presidential debates: What did you see?On the four key dimensions of economic, foreign, energy, and educational policy, this is my score card so far:

Economic policy. Neither one has a clue. No difference between them.Foreign policy: GWB 4 more years. Shift a few troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. No significant difference between them.Energy policy: McCain says build more nukes. Obama says drill for more oil here in the U.S.Education policy. McCain didn’t speak about it. Obama thinks it’s very important.

I ask myself:

Does the candidate understand how fundamentally the world has changed in the past 10 years?Do they have the statesmanship to communicate that understanding to a people that aren’t emotionally ready to hear it?Can they marshal public support to take the necessary corrective action?

From my point of view, the “top-down” guidance system looks fairly well broken. Neither of the political parties seems ready to implement fundamental change.Those are my opinions. I’d love to hear what you think.

Michael CohenSeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:15 am

The best guide to what Congress is going to do these days is to look to the aggregate noney contributed by various industries to reelection campaigns. When these sums are large, one needs to figure out what industrial groupings are getting for these investments. In this election cycle roughly 330 million dollars is reported to be given to the Democrats and Republicans from financial/insurance/real estate interests. With 26 million to McCain and 25million to Obama. These monies represent about 5% of the reported monies in the presidential races and probably much more for the Congressional races. Until we have a depression it is unlikely to see any plan which dilutes the current ownership structure in finance. Political investing is generally efficient, they investors generally get what they pay for.

OuterBeltwaySeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:30 am

Is it just me, or does it seem like the “top-down” method of coping with change isn’t working all that well?

MedicSeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am

So this AM I am reading that the SEC’s chairman – numbnuts Cox, per the NYT finds,”The last six months have made it abundantly clear that voluntary regulation does not work,” he said in a statement. The program “was fundamentally flawed from the beginning, because investment banks could opt in or out of supervision voluntarily. The fact that investment bank holding companies could withdraw from this voluntary supervision at their discretion diminished the perceived mandate” of the program, and “weakened its effectiveness,” he added.What? Voluntary regulation doesn’t work? I am shocked!! The next thing he’ll tell me was that Iraq was a mistake, there were no WMD, lobbyists have too much influence, the 2 party system is broken, the middle class will likely lose most savings and retirement so the banks can stay afloat, the world IS round, GWB does not talk directly to GOD and Sarah Palin is a moron.Someone wake me when this nightmare of STUPIDITY is over. In the meantime…..let’s storm the castle!

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:03 am

It’s hard to see someone else’s reality from the viewpoint of one’s own. America’s standard of living has been going down hill for several decades, and it is accelerating at rapid speed. Roubini warned there’s going to be a train wreck and, IMO, there’s not enough brake power to stop it. In fact, the added weight of bailout is going to hasten it. Six of my acquaintances in one of the highest paid economy pods in the nation are out of work–all professionals. I know one CEO who’s been handed walking papers and another that’s been demoted–signs of company economic turmoil.The way I see it, the economy is like a sleeping bear in a cave. Politicians and special interest greed can shake sticks and unchain Cramer and pretend they’re in charge, but the minute they rush into that cave and awaken the beast, it attacks with a vengeance. IMO, they just stepped in.

ptmSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:04 am

Once-in-a-Century Rip-OffEconomist Michael Hudson: The bailout is a giveaway that will causehyperinflation and dollar collapseThere is no emergency – this is a give away to the most-wealthy.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdsnIYurpSMFrom: TheRealNews Added: September 26, 2008Dr. Michael Hudson is a Wall Street financial analyst and historian. ADistinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City,he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: TheEconomic Strategy of American Empire and of Super-Imperialism and of TheMyth of Aid.

Mother of GodSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:09 am

Re the Birk email, am I the only one who worries over what that letter means? Of course it could just be “a joke”, but what if it’s more? What if it means the writer and the people sending it around the net, really cannot do simple math? What if it means even people who can do simple math think it’s FUNNY that those who make up the society they live in, can’t do simple math? (I did explain to the person who sent it to me that despite the math error, the idea to put money at the bottom of the economy is quite sound and sane and perfectly essential perfect economic policy, because money does not trickle down but percolates up from the bottom to refresh every level in the economy, btw.)I see the letter as going right back to the fact that we are in a race between education and catastrophe – but I guess that’s just me? The level of no-think going on all around me does not make me laugh, I assure you. I believe my happiness and safety is utterly dependent upon those around me being rational thinkers who question what they are told. Needless to say, I assess my safety level to be about zero today.Re Dr. Roubini and his plan, what I see coming from the good Doc is crucial and diligent analysis providing an honest admission that we’re in deep doo doo globally, and an intelligent attempt to “cushion” us, or “slow the plunge” as we take our inevitable fall, plus suggested actions to prevent a repeat. And once again I will say how grateful I am to Dr. Roubini for what I see as his hard work on behalf of all of us.Just my thoughts this morning.Now I’d like to ask, do others here think this next article I’m linking can be understood by your average Joe workingman? Is this as good a piece as I think it is, for understanding the back story to what’s going on today? (I’m not saying that it goes to the root of our species error – that insane idea to allow overpayunderpayoverpowerunderpower – but I think it helps clarify how this bubble, how all the bubbles, got started.) Opinions, pretty please?Splain it to me please

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:19 am

This underscores what I say…that the fraud and the derivative dangers in the excess debt is so great that only completey trusted and connected insiders can be trusted to move it through the political canyons. Another of the trusted members of the tribe is Barney Frank.

ptmSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:33 am

Paul Krugman agrees with Nouriel Roubini…Nouriel Roubini has a characteristically scathing takedown of the Paulson plan, and here’s the thing: language aside, his economic analysis is similar to mine. The fundamental problem in the financial system is too little capital; bizarrely, the Treasury chose not to address that problem directly, by (say) purchasing preferred shares in financial institutions. Instead, the plan is premised on the belief that toxic mortgage-related waste is underpriced, and that the Treasury can recapitalize banks on the cheap by fixing the markets’ error.The Dodd-Frank changes make the plan less awful, mainly by creating an equity stake. Essentially, this makes it possible for the plan to do the right thing through the back door: use toxic-waste purchases to acquire equity, and hence inject capital after all. Also, the oversight means that Treasury can be prevented from making the plan a pure gift to financial evildoers. But it’s still not a good plan.On the other hand, there’s no prospect of enacting an actually good plan any time soon. Bush is still sitting in the White House; and anyway, selling voters on large-scale stock purchases would be tough, especially given the cynical attacks sure to come from the right. And the financial crisis is all too real.So is it better to have no plan than a deeply flawed plan? If it was the original Paulson plan, no plan is better. Dodd-Frank-Paulson may just cross the line — let’s see what details we have if and when agreement is reached.If the plan looks not-awful enough, I’ll be pro. But I won’t be cheering — I’ll be holding my nose.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/27/tricky-bailout-politics/

artichokeSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:40 am

I was impressed by both candidates’ utter refusal to address the financial crisis in a meaningful way. McCain made a small comment about budget freezes, Obama nothing at all. McCain was thinking quicker there. But in substance, I wonder if they have been sworn to secrecy about something. After all McCain was involved in negotiations earlier in the day.I don’t like all this secrecy, cramming things through on the weekend, etc. It isn’t meant to protect us, I’m pretty sure of that.Roubini proposes what has pretty much become the “economists’ plan” as far as I can tell. I hope it gets consideration. The way to determine how much equity to take is for the banks to issue NEW equity, and then the government buys as much of it — at current market price — as the bank needs to beef up its liquidity.

artichokeSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:44 am

The capital is being provided. Finally Bernanke is printing! Helicopters to the rescue!!Really this can solve enough of the problem for now. Print on, Ben, and let Congress take its time and do things right and publicly.

mammonSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:46 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28bailout.html?ref=businessDear Professor:Here we are on Saturday and the broad outlines of the Bailout Rescue arelacking the key elements in your 10 point plan. It seems that the FinancialIndustry is not interested in solving problems. They are interested in bailingout the Investment Banks and they will also try to blow another further bubbleto ride to oblivion. I know you are reticent to go further than your very capable,integral and comprehensive solution. We need for you to post a critique!We need to send that critique to all lawmakers! We may already be too late!We need your help!

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 11:49 am

An Alternate Plan”The Birk Economic Recovery PlanHi Pals,I’m against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.Instead, I’m in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a ‘We Deserve It Dividend.’To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child, so 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a ‘We Deserve It Dividend.’Of course, it would NOT be tax free.So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.A husband and wife has $595,000.00.What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?Pay off your mortgage – housing crisis solved.Repay college loans – what a great boost to new gradsPut away money for college – it’ll be thereSave in a bank – create money to loan to entrepreneurs.Buy a new car – create jobsInvest in the market – capital drives growthPay for your parent’s medical insurance – health care improvesEnable Deadbeat Dads to come clean – or elseRemember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it…instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 (known as a ‘vote buy’) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!As for AIG – liquidate it.Sell off its parts.Let American General go back to being American General.Sell off the real estate.Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.Here’s my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.Sure it’s a crazy idea that can ‘never work.’But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!How do you spell Economic Boom?I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion ‘We Deserve It Dividend’ more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC.And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.Ahhh…I feel so much better getting that off my chest.”What if we ran the same proposal using $700 billion?

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:06 pm

Bush used his weekly radio address to appeal to lawmakers from both parties to work together on “an issue that transcends partisanship.” He said he was confident “we will pass a bill to protect the financial security of every American very soon.”The president said he was aware that many of his radio listeners were upset. “You make sacrifices every day to meet your mortgage payments and keep up with your bills. When the government asks you to pay for mistakes on Wall Street, it does not seem fair,” Bush said.”And if it were possible to let every irresponsible firm on Wall Street fail without affecting you and your family, I would do it. But that is not possible,” he added.In a sign of movement Friday, House Republicans sent their No. 2 leader, Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, to join the talks after their objections to an emerging compromise had brought negotiations to a standstill.Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, a key Democrat in eight days of up-and-down talks designed to stave off an economic disaster, said he was convinced that by Sunday there would be an agreement “that people can understand on this bill.”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told fellow Democrats during a private meeting Friday that the legislation would not let judges rewrite mortgages to help bankrupt homeowners avoid foreclosure. That provision amounted to a deal-breaker for Republicans, whose votes are needed to pass the measure, she said, according to lawmakers at the meeting.Democrats and Bush administration officials said they were willing to include House Republicans’ idea of having the government insure distressed mortgages — but only as an option, rather than a replacement for the administration’s more sweeping approach.At an early morning tree planting event at the White House on Saturday, Bush ignored a reporter’s question about when a bailout deal could be reached. On Friday night, he called some lawmakers and discussed the rescue plan with some others at a National Book Festival gala he attended at the Library of Congress. The White House declined to disclose their names, saying the president was trying to have constructive discussions without publicly pressuring them.New details emerged of a remarkably tumultuous White House meeting on the bailout Thursday. With the session breaking up in disarray, according to two participants, Bush issued an appeal, saying, “Can’t we just all go out and say things are OK?” The group around the table, congressional leaders as well as McCain and Obama, spurned the request. The participants spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private.The legislation the White House is promoting would allow the government to buy bad mortgages and other sour assets held by investors, most of them financial companies. That should make those companies more inclined to lend and lift a major weight off the national economy that is already sputtering.Many House conservatives say they are against such heavy federal intervention. Under the GOP plan, the government would insure the distressed securities rather than buy them. Tax breaks would provide additional incentives to invest.In an Associated Press-Knowledge Networks poll, only 30 percent of those surveyed expressed support for Bush’s package. Forty-five percent were opposed, with 25 percent undecided. The survey was conducted Thursday and had a margin of error or plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080927/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdownSo…Democrat Paulson and his blood brother Barney Frank get exactly what they want, becausePolitical partisans always blame the other party to divert the public’s eyes while the masters empty the public’s purse. We arrived at this point from the lies covering the fraud, like Pelosi’s. The reports on the ongoing negotiations on this bailout from all sides, and from every spokesman, are a sea of lies — from the Congressman who say that they are not going to go home with a bill bailing out Wall Street to the Senators and Congressman who say progress is being made and there will be no heavy burden on the taxpayer. Bah! Humbug!

Free TibetSeptember 27th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

Nouriel Roubini has a characteristically scathing takedown of the Paulson plan, and here’s the thing: language aside, his economic analysis is similar to mine. The fundamental problem in the financial system is too little capital; bizarrely, the Treasury chose not to address that problem directly, by (say) purchasing preferred shares in financial institutions. Instead, the plan is premised on the belief that toxic mortgage-related waste is underpriced, and that the Treasury can recapitalize banks on the cheap by fixing the markets’ error.Thank you ptm, for pointing to that. I always wish I could write so succinctly.What Krugman doesn’t seem to appreciate, in my own view, is the enormous risk of failure. Borrowing yet another $700b for a venture with unlikely prospects…For the bankers it’s a bailout. They come out good no matter what. For the taxpayer it’s almost assuredly a large expense. There is little prospect of the taxpayer coming out good. For the US economy as a whole it is only a restructuring of the bad financial sector debt. The debt burden is being lifted from the banks and placed on the taxpayer. Maybe you could argue for that if the taxpayer were in a good financial position. But we are already borrowing more than is prudent. So, the result is that we push the problem down the road where it becomes an even bigger problem. I guess the politicans see the benefit of being able to push the problem anyplace else. Anything as long as they don’t have to accept responsibility.

Mother of GodSeptember 27th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

Medic, I love the great rant, truly, and if more people would honestly admit to themselves that we ARE in NOTHING LESS THAN a nightmare of stupidity – the likes of which is now vomiting up results so bad WE CAN’T EVEN RELISH BEING CONSCIOUS ANYMORE AND WOULD ACTUALLY PREFER UNCONSCIOUSNESS TO ENDURING THE LEVEL OF UNHAPPINESS WE’RE AWASH IN – then this species could overcome the inertia that keeps us from leaving the burning house.But here’s the deal. We HAVE stormed the castle. All we ever DO is storm the castle. What we NEVER have done is change our inherited, bogus, merely traditional and conventional, irrational ideas about work and wealth. Over and over in human history the people ALWAYS rise up and pull down the parasites at the top eventually – but look where we are: right back needing to storm the castle again, and simultaneously convinced that being rich is good for the rich. We have the rich in our crosshairs, we’re locked and loaded, yet we want to be rich!This is beyond the pale of stupidity, is it not?The rich are not the enemy or the problem, Humanity. The enemy and the problem IS AN IDEA. Almost the entire human tribe believes in everybody going for as much as he or she can get out of the pool of wealth, and never mind even pausing to ask or do any math – hey, how much did i put into the pool of wealth – i need to know how much i put in so i can know how much i can take out – i need to know what is rightfully mine – somebody get a calculator, eh? – i need to know how much of that other guy’s workproducts i can take out without robbing him – i don’t want angry people who have been robbed for my neighbors – i don’t want to fill my environment with a never-ending, ever-escalating struggle for justice – i’d rather have ease and leisure and fraternity in my world – i want the beautiful world where we humans are thinking about how to maximize the good and minimize the bad in the world – a world full of people focused like lasers on their individual happiness, preserving and increasing it by actively seeking not to rob anybody else…The human species is now living in an utterly unique modern age of E=mc2 (being a fact not subject to human emotive persuasion), and of high-speed transportation and communication (SARS and terrorists fly on airplanes). Your backyard is now halfway around the world. Injustice and injury ricochet like atoms, and get to everybody. We have a material inequality factor of billions to one – the most extreme inequality, injustice, injury to ourselves. We have a power/influence/control inequality factor equal to the economic inequality factor.There can BE no democracy, no meaningful freedom, no government, when such extreme, extreme inequality exists. We speak of Democracy as if we have it, but what we have is tyranny-slavery, anarchy, and no future.Our species will either rid itself, on rational grounds and motivated by perfectly sane self-interest, of the idea to allow pay injustice,or our species WILL succumb to the results of having the next and the next and the next wealthpower giants, ad infinitum.We are going to choose pay justice and have a golden age, or we are going to have history on repeat on steroids kaboom.ps: i’ll put up more about the principles of pay justice, just in case anybody is really chewing over the ideas seriously and soberly, but i already did some of that here and got no response to the ideas. i think it takes a while to wear a new mental path into our heads, and i fear people just go to automatic delete when they hear talk of justice and equality. everybody mis-thinks that economic justice will mean a decrease in their happiness, i’m pretty sure, but an investment in justice will in fact reap wonderful dividends we just haven’t even let ourselves imagine.i think it was evil to teach us we are bad sinners who need to learn to love others first. i think self-ishness has been given an undeserved bad name, and that that divorced us from our natural duty to love ourselves, and that’s why we let all focus on our best happiness and safety slip away. it is time to apply some rigorous thought to what constitutes our best safety and happiness, Humanity.we can get back to happiness and safety, and we can create a sustainable peace and plenty, but we have got to do the work of building mental muscle to carry us there.It is an error in human thinking that rules the world, my friends.It is a ‘what’, not a ‘who’, that rules this world.

AfASeptember 27th, 2008 at 1:35 pm

Krugman:The fundamental problem in the financial system is too little capitalWhy not look at it differently?The fundamental problem in the financial system is too much debt/ liabilities.This, I believe, is a much more accurate description of what ills not only Wall Street, but also Main Street and Capitol Hill.In fact, in general, the Treasury (government) and the Wall Street (banks and financial institutions) are no wealth-, value- creating entities, but simply debt laundering warehouses (not necessarily in the pejorative meaning), Government’s and bank’s liabilities are truly the public ones (that is the individual’s ones). I will go back to one of my previous discussions to state, again, that any level of debt that it is not repayable (negative NPV or Debt is greater than the DCFs (the s referring to discounteds) of the sum of all future (equivalent of) Free Cash Flows of households) is inflationary and therefore should (or otherwise would) be wiped out (desinflationate).The level of leverage in the financial and banking world is too high and needs to come down. Pumping more equity is a travesty because this equity is just yet another disguised levered level of debt (any so-said equity coming from the debt laundering powerhouses mentioned above are not such – think about where the money is coming from and how it is paid for).So instead of suggesting to pump more liquidity into disintegrating balance sheets, why not force or entice them to write down and delever. This would, hopefully, translate into “debt relief” to homeowners, with appropriate procedures. It would also mean less debt/loan available to everybody else, and that shrinking banks will need to tighten their due diligence procedures to include criteria other than just being a living human being.

AnonymousSeptember 27th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

We don’t even get mortgage modification. And there’s a bogus poll claiming that 30% of Americans support it. I sure don’t know any of those 30%.Let’s just give Taiwan to the Chinese, they’ll buy our bonds again, and we buy some time to consider things more carefully.

Guest1984September 27th, 2008 at 2:22 pm

Why are wasting our time? It’s ~$400 and ~3,500. If you do not have basic math skills,at least have a little bit of imagination. How big US GDP would have to be (per capita)in order to give everybody close to half a million?

Average JaneSeptember 27th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

Oh, MOG, I beg to differ. Many of my middle class brethren (myself included) have absolutely no interest in being obscenely wealthy. We want just enough to be above subsistence levels with perhaps a small amount left over for whatever leisure activities pique our interest. We say, “no thanks” to the McMansions, the behemoth SUVs, the constant worries about keeping track of obscene wealth. We want good quality healthcare, education for our children, infrastructure and most important of all, good quality government that helps those who cannot help themselves (particularly the elderly). Is that asking for too much? I just don’t see many of my friends thinking they’re “entitled” to a “better” lifestyle, if that’s defined as more and bigger stuff. So, MOG, there truly is hope.

AfASeptember 27th, 2008 at 3:02 pm

Com’on Guest, one can still dream a bit. Wasn’t that one of your childhood wish, wake up one morning to become half millionaire?There is always Paulson to remind us of our upcoming misery.

AfASeptember 27th, 2008 at 3:09 pm

I guess the poll is capitalization-weighted averaged.The more you own, the more you are worth.Isn’t that how democracy is supposed to work?

Mother of GodSeptember 27th, 2008 at 3:43 pm

Ask your friends if they believe Oprah Winfrey is a legal thief, dear Jane, and you will discover that they do indeed believe absolutely in the system of everyone going after all they can get, never mind who did the work to create the wealth.They will say she is a philanthropist who gives “her” money away, and they will never see the obvious for what it is – that it is Oprah who is receiving money-for-nothing, society’s charity. (yes, she works, of course, and should be paid for that and is, but she is also receiving heaps and heaps of pays for things besides work when only work creates wealth, which means others have to be being robbed because there is no other place for the extra money being dumped on Oprah to come from but from other people’s work/money.)

artichokeSeptember 27th, 2008 at 4:30 pm

Interesting. A major problem in 1929 was that production capacity had expanded to build the railroads. Now the railroads were essentially complete, leaving too much capacity.Now this guy says we have overcapacity again.

AfASeptember 27th, 2008 at 5:20 pm

The article tells a quite interesting tale.However, I am not convinced that the real underlying cause of the problem resides in over-production, and even if it was the case, why stop there? What does cause over-production? Also, I do not think it is safe to summarize the whole issue in just one underlying problem (ever heard of multiple regression?)At certain level it is difficult to separate causes from consequences, spurious relationships from proven causality and exogenous from endogenous variables.If I could stipulate something, I would say that the problem was created due to over-consumption (read organizational theories of the shift from production to consumption driven business models) driven mainly by a Pull (marketing) rather than Push strategies. From here, it becomes self-evident, that as a result, over-production will follow.Now we should ask ourselves why would people over-consume. To know that you need to know that over-consumption is a relative term: consumption at a level that is not sustainable and not justified by current and expected future income and other earnings. The only way that any person would over-consume is if (s)he has access to loose and un-underwritten credit and debt.Next you need to ask yourself why would the bank and, the seller and producer (if financing the sale directly) would take part of any reckless lending without any appropriate risk assessment or due diligence. Here we may propose many explanations:1-Greed: bankers, sellers and producers got greedy and found they can realize fat and quick commission by increasing volume without any regard to long term soundness of their lending practices.2-Cheap credit: bankers and sellers have access to plenty and cheap liquidity they could lend out. The more they lend to risky borrowers, the more profit they make.3-Regulation: In my opinion, to a lesser degree, deregulation (removing necessary and sound rules) and regulation (imposing inefficient and unsound rules) also played some of the problem.And depending on how you see things:1- Greed is a natural human behavioral bias that cannot be controlled except through motivation (including fear, ethos …)2- Cheap credit is a direct result of flawed monetary policies (and probably flawed economic theology) but which sees its original sin in the Legislative branch (see a post above and other posts by PeterJB)3- Inappropriate regulations is also a direct result of a playout of interest groups and the infiltration of Legislative (and also Executive – i.e. regulators) branches by lobbyists …These 3 main causes should have some common denominator (besides the dollar).Can you find it?

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 6:47 pm

Looks like McCain ratified and approved of Bush’s budget eight times in a row, Obama did not approve of it and/or ratify it that many times… therefore, the lessor-idiot is Obama! The greator idiot is McCain. I’m going to vote for Obama (if the USA exists on election day, short of like a default of treasury securities and/or the dollar) despite his cocaine useage, while trying to figure out who he was or something, and despite his middle name being Hussein. Obama for president of the united states of america.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 6:50 pm

Oh, don’t forget that the educational attainment of the two candidates is vastly different. Obama out-did McCain easily… Obama went to “King’s College” aka Columbia University, and he went to Harvard Law School, and also was a member of the Harvard Law Review! He also worked at very prestigious law firm in the Chicago area… I can’t figure out why anyone would consider for one second voting for J. McCain…. Obama is significantly the better candidate!!!

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 6:54 pm

@mammonmccain is simply engaging in political theatrics, like when he decided to kiss Pat Robertson’s behind.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 6:56 pm

McCain was an accomplice in the repeal of Glass-Steagall and Phil Gramm is now McCain’s economic adviser so we’re screwed regardless whoe wins this election.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 7:01 pm

Wonder what will happen when and if all the foreigners (the Japanese, the UK, Luxemburg, Cayman Islands, and China, and still others)— wonder what will happen when and if they all start to liquidate and selloff their Treasury Securities?? I think Yields would surge to the upside, it would be like 1982 all over again! The US Dollar would also depreciate rather rapidly. :-( How sad… the bloody americans will suffer due to their own stupidity of borrowing more money than anyone could already count to in hell for eternity. They even claim (their own stupid Congressmen, they claim that borrowing another 700 billion dollars will somehow solve thier problems, when it was the borrowing in the first place that got them in the terrible position their in! They sure are in front of the eight ball now! How will they swallow this one?!

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“RAH RAH RAH, … AMERICA!!!”~ Cheerleader, busting at the seams, sweaty, with the wind blowing her hair around, and great sunlight on her fantastic smile, cheering with pom-poms!!!

PhilTSeptember 27th, 2008 at 7:06 pm

There is already a new thread, but in case you are checkingback:1) What happens to the toxic assets in your scenario?2) What % of these firms will go bust, and what implicationsare there for overall ROE?

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 7:34 pm

I noticed that Professor Nouriel Roubini is and has been very bearish for a very very very long time! I wonder sometimes if this is just a coincidence that he’s been right over the past year or so! Wasn’t he bearish since about 1999?? Nearly ten years later, at least, one full year almost, over the past ten, he’s sure been correct about being bearish!!!

Andrew Bernhardt, Saint Louis, MissouriSeptember 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pm

Gosh, all this stock market volatility and depreciation… sure makes the case for fixed income. The DJIA has gone literally from about 386.10 to the current 11,143.13, and since mid Sept of 1929 to the present (just about 79.0833 years elapsing)… GEE!!! This means that the annualized return has been +4.3435 percent, before inflation adjustment. The last time I annualized inflation it was approximately +3.16% from 1950 to the present, at the Treasury Inflation Calculator, which will annualize the CPI-U values for ya! This means that the real return (return minus inflation) has been 4.3455-3.16, which equals +1.1855% !!! This is utterly lame as hell beyond belief to me! Sure makes the case for TIPS (as in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), TIPS have their principal adjusted to the CPI-U and then a real yield is applied to the adjusted principal! So, e.g. with 3.16% inflation and a 2% real yield, you have a 1.0316*1.02 total return, which equals +5.2232% return on average. Currently, inflation has been running well over that, around 4.3%, so with the real yield around +2.0%, then if there was 4.3% inflation over the next twelve months, the investor would be left with a return of 1.043*1.02, which equals +6.386% total return. Remember, the long term real return on stocks from 1929 to the present is approximately 1.1855%, and the real return on TIPS (literally fixed income backed by the full faith and credit of the US Treasury) has a real return of just over 2% currently!!! Secondly, fixed income is significantly LESS volatile. Who would buy stocks? The DJIA is lame as hell! … This doesn’t mean though that indices like the S&P Latin America 40 index, or the San Paulo Brazil Stock exchange, or the S&P MidCap 400 are lame, on the contrary, these stock indices are a lot better (where better means a stronger annualized return, and more portable alpha vs. the DJIA and/or the S&P500) than the DJIA. Still, my favourite indices anymore are the Lehman Brothers US Treasury Inflation Notes Index, and also the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index, the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Plus, and also the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global indices.

GuestSeptember 27th, 2008 at 10:03 pm

McCain graduated 5th from the bottom of his class at Annapolis and crashed 5 navy aircraft – not the sharpest knife in the block

John LawSeptember 28th, 2008 at 2:28 am

190+ Economists Slam BailoutOver 190 top economists in the country have slammed this bailout on grounds of fairness, ambiguity, and long term effects.http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/mortgage_protest.htmWhat is it that Paulson knows that 190+ economists don’t? After all Paulson was telling us all how safe the US Banking system was just a few weeks ago.THIS IS CRITICAL: Please fax AND phone your congressman. Do not bother with any members of the House except for Nancy Pelosi.Call them with this simple message “If you vote for this bill, you will lose my vote”.Click Here For Congresional Phone And Fax NumbersSenate Fax ListPlease fax everyone on this list.Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 202-224-3416 or 202-224-5137 (try both not sure which is correct)Sen. Harry Reid (D) 202-224-7327Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 202-228-5143Sen. John Ensign (R) 202-228-2193Sen. Jim Bunning (R) 202-228-1373Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) 202-224-6020Sen John McCain (R) 202-228-2862Sen. Barack Obama 202-228-4260Sen. John D. Rockefeller 202-224-7665Sen. Dianne Feinstein 202-228-3954Sen. Ron Wyden 202-228-2717Sen. Evan Bayh 202-228-1377Sen. Barbara Mikulski 202-224-8858Sen. Bill Nelson 202-228-2183Sen. John Kerry 202-224-8525Sen. Daniel Inouye 202-224-6747Sen. Hillary Clinton 202-228-0282Those inclined should also fax their own senators as well.

GuestOctober 4th, 2008 at 4:38 pm

Dear Doctor Roubini:I have called almost every U. S. senator and rep. and begged them to go to your site and read your positions. I am telling everyone I know to visit your web page and call , call , call. I hope you will continue to try to save our country and I pray that the people in Washington will listen to you. Why don’t you run for president??? Then everyone in the world would get a piece of the pie. Thank you for your efforts.Mary C.

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Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows. Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research on aging, longevity, fertility and migration, and the impact of all of these on economic growth.

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