HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise): A 10 Step Plan to Resolve the Financial Crisis
Even if the Treasury TARP plan is implemented fairly and efficiently the US will not avoid a severe U-shaped18-month recession and a severe financial and banking crisis: the recession train has already left the station in Q1 and the financial/banking crisis will be severe regardless of what the Treasury and the Fed do from now on. What a proper rescue plan can do is to avoid having the US experience a multi-year L-shaped recession and extreme financial crisis like the one that led to a decade long stagnation in Japan in the 1990s after the bursting of their real estate and equity bubbles.
I have also argued that, in order to resolve this financial crisis it is not enough to take the bad/toxic assets off the balance sheet of the financial institutions (a new RTC); it is also necessary and fundamental to reduce the debt overhang of millions of insolvent households via a significant debt reduction on their mortgages (an HOLC program like the one that was implement during the Great Depression); and also recapitalize undercapitalized banks with public capital in the form of preferred shares (as the RFC did with 4000 banks during the Great Depression). An RTC scheme without an HOLC and RFC component would not resolve two fundamental problems: millions of households are insolvent and unable to service their mortgages; the financial system is vastly undercapitalized and needs capital to avoid an ugly credit crunch and to foster new credit creation that is needed for future growth.
That is why I proposed the creation of a HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise) that would be a combination of an RTC, a HOLC and a RFC. Let me flesh out this proposal and its key elements and compare it to the Treasury TARP proposal that in its current form has many flaws.
There are 10 steps in this HOME proposal to resolve this most severe financial crisis. Here they are:
First, like in the Treasury TARP plan you need to buy illiquid/toxic assets and take them off the balance sheet of banks and financial institutions to reliquify them and allow new credit creation. The biggest problem here – as the debate between Bernanke and senators yesterday is one of the proper valuation and the proper price at which the government should buy these assets (the RTC did not have this problem as it was working out assets of failed S&Ls): if the government buys the asset at at price that is too high (too small of discount relative to face value) the fiscal cost will be huge and you massively subsidize reckless bankers and their shareholders. If you buy at a discount that is too high you minimize the fiscal cost in the short run but many banks could go bust and the eventual fiscal cost of bailing out the depositors of failed banks could be large. You can debate endlessly whether such assets should be bought at current market price or at prices closer to hold to maturity values (as Bernanke suggested). Given that these assets are impaired pricing the long run value of them is mission impossible. Thus, there is only one solution to this fundamental uncertainty: avoid the government overpaying by having the government having some of the positive benefits of an upside gain in case the banks’ values recover after the bailout. I.e. you need for the government to have some equity in the banks whose assets are purchased by the government. This leads to step 2 of the proposal.
Second, in exchange for the purchase of illiquid asset (at whatever price it is agreed) the government gets preferred shares in the financial institutions that senior to existing common and preferred shares and that are convertible into common shares to allow government to participate into any future upside.
Third, even if the government gets preferred shares as in step 2, the banks will need more capital if they are undercapitalized and they have not fully reserved/provisioned for the losses coming from writing down the asset being sold to the government. So you will need to inject further actual public capital in the form of preferred shares in the financial institutions ( this is what the RFC did during the Great Depression).
Fourth, given the risk to the government deriving from the public injection of capital in the financial system the existing shareholders of the banks need to take a first-tier loss to minimize the risks for the government share. How to do that? First, you need to suspend dividend payments on common share and possibly even existing preferred shared; you also need to force to partially match the public capital injection with new Tier 1 capital.
Fifth, public and private recapitalization of financial institutions unfairly benefits unsecured creditors (all creditors but insured depositors) of such institutions. So, you also need to convert some of this unsecured debt (the sub debt and other debt unsecured debt) into equity (a debt for equity swap). Such swap further reduce the leverage of the financial system (leading to a lower debt to equity ratio for financial institutions).
Sixth, after this crisis is resolved the banking and financial system may need lower capital than before this crisis so as to avoid new asset and credit bubbles; and if you recapitalize some banks that will be able to lend more (still with lower leverage ratios) you still need to let other insolvent banks and financial institutions to go bust and disappear. Only healthier institution should survive. So you need to a systematic triage between banks that are distressed, undercapitalized and illiquid but solvent once the private and public recapitalization occurs from those that are fundamentally insolvent and that need to be shut down. You need to destroy the bad apples to let the good ones or the sick but curable ones survive and thrive.
Seventh, as in the case of the RTC the assets of the banks that are bankrupt and are allowed to fail go to the HOME for workout (debt restructuring/reduction).
Eighth, you need an HOLC-like program for debt reduction of the household sector. Households in the US have too much debt (subprime, near prime, prime mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards, auto loans and student loans) while their assets (values of their homes and stocks) are plunging leading to a sharp fall in their net worth. And households are getting buried under this mountain of mounting debt and rising debt servicing burdens. Thus, a fraction of the household sector – as well as a fraction of the financial sector and a fraction of the corporate sector and of the local government sector – is insolvent and needs debt relief. When a country (say Russia, Ecuador or Argentina) has too much debt and is insolvent it defaults and gets debt reduction and is then able to resume fast growth; when a firm is distressed with excessive debt it goes into bankruptcy court and gets debt relief that allows it to resume investment, production and growth; when a household is financially distressed it also needs debt relief to be able to have more discretionary income to spend. So any unsustainable debt problem requires debt reduction. The lack of debt relief to the distressed households is the reason why this financial crisis is becoming more severe and the economic recession – with a sharp fall now in real consumption spending – now worsening. The fiscal actions tak
en so far (income relief to households via tax rebates) and bailouts of distressed financial institutions (Bear Stearns creditors’ bailout, Fannie and Freddie and AIG) do not resolve the fundamental debt problem for two reasons. First, you cannot grow yourself out of a debt problem: when debt to disposable income is too high increasing the denominator with tax rebates is ineffective and only temporary; i.e. you need to reduce the nominator (the debt). Second, rescuing distressed institutions without reducing the debt problem of the borrowers does not resolve the fundamental insolvency of the debtor that limits its ability to consume and spend and thus drags the economy into a more severe economic contraction. So of the five possible uses of fiscal policy – income relief to households (the 2008 tax rebate), rescue/bailout of financial institutions (Bears Stearns, Fannie and Freddie, AIG), purchase of assets of failed institutions (an RTC-like institution), recapitalization of undercapitalized financial institutions (an RFC-like institution), government purchase of distressed mortgages to provide debt relief to households (an HOLC-like institution) – the last option is the most important and effective to resolve this severe financial and economic crisis. During the Great Depression the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation was create to buy mortgages from bank at a discount price, reduce further the face value of such mortgages and refinance distressed homeowners into new mortgages with lower face value and lower fixed rate mortgage rates. This massive program allowed millions of households to avoid losing their homes and ending up in foreclosure. The HOLC bought mortgages for two year and managed such assets for 18 years at a relatively low fiscal cost (as the assets were bought at a discount and reducing the face value of the mortgages allowed home owners to avoid defaulting on the refinanced mortgages). A new HOLC will be the macro equivalent of creating a large “bad bank” where the bad assets of financial institutions are taken off their balance sheets and restructured/reduced.
Ninth, we need to avoid a situation where the recapitalization of the banks and the resolution of this financial crisis leads to another credit and asset bubble. Many things need to be done to avoid this risk but a rapid change of the Basel II capital adequacy ratios to reduce their the pro-cyclicality would be essential.
Tenth, start implementing rapidly a reform of the system of regulation and supervision of financial institutions in a world of financial globalization. With the collapse of most of the shadow banking system most of these shadow banks are now being folded in the traditional banks and will be regulated like banks. Indeed all institutions of large size and that are systemically important (commercial banks, investment banks, non-bank mortgage lenders, hedge funds, private equity funds, etc.) should be supervised and regulated in a similar way. To make the financial system more stable over time and avoid severe financial crises like the current one will require that both banks and former shadow banks be regulated and supervised better than they have been in the last decade. After all traditional banks have performed as poorly – and some more poorly – and have lost more money than shadow banks during this severe financial crisis. So both the poor regulation and supervision of banks (as regulators were asleep at the wheel while the laissez fair ideology and voodoo-cult of self-regulation and market discipline and internal risk management became dominant) and the lack of sensible regulation of shadow banks lies behind the current financial disaster. Thus, folding shadow banks back into the traditional banking system will make the overall financial system more stable only if the proper reform of the regulation and supervision of financial institutions in a world of financial globalization will be undertaken. This important matter is the subject of the chapter (titled “Financial Crises, Financial Stability, and Reform: Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System in a World of Financial Globalization”) that I have written for the recently published World Economic Forum’s Financial Development Report.
This chapter analyzes in detail the episodes of financial crisis in emerging market economies and advanced economy; discusses the causes and consequences of such crisis; measures the economic and fiscal costs of such crises; discusses the debate on whether monetary and credit policy should target asset prices and asset bubbles; studies the weaknesses of financial regulation and supervision in advanced economies financial systems that led to the recent crises; and finally considers eleven separate key issues in the reform of the regulation and supervision of financial institutions in a world of financial globalization that are necessary to prevent future crisis and make them less virulent. These eleven issues that are key in reforming financial regulation and supervision are: the distorted compensation system of bankers/traders and the related agency problems between financial institutions shareholders and their managers; the flaws of the originate and distribute securitization model; regulatory arbitrage and the instability of the shadow banking system given its reliance on short term liquid financing, high leverage and long term illiquid lending; the weaknesses of self-regulation and market discipline and the need of greater rules-based regulation; pro-cyclical capital requirements and other issues with the Basel II capital requirements; the distorted incentives of credit rating agencies; asset valuation and fair value accounting in a world where assets can be highly illiquid and hard to price; the lack of transparency in financial markets; the inadequate regulatory regime; the lack of international coordination of regulatory policies; and the issue of who will regulate the regulators, i.e. how to avoid the regulatory capture by the financial industry of the regulators and supervisors of financial institutions.
So now that the shadow banking system is being folded in the formal banking system it is high time to rethink how both banks and the former non-bank financial institutions should be properly regulated and supervised.
588 Responses to “HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise): A 10 Step Plan to Resolve the Financial Crisis”
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
allright, first one here:-)
Softwarengineer • September 24th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
BERNANKE WANTS MORE OVERPOPULATION WITH $1 TRILLION ENTITY BAILOUTHis quote today:”…”The intensification of financial stress in recent weeks, which will make lenders still more cautious about extending credit to households and business, could prove a significant further drag on growth,” …”The rest of the URL:http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080924/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_bernankebizIs this bailout entity like that Sci Fi horror movie about the devil demon, called “The Entity”?Perhaps we need to let the banks tighten their belts and raise interest rates to stay afloat; rather than slap us taxpayers with a corporate welfare bailout population “growth” bill?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
“it is also necessary and fundamental to reduce the debt overhang of millions of insolvent households via a significant debt reduction on their mortgages”looks like that would be a political decision, if the government owns the mortgages?
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
To avoid another bubble by rewarding ruthless risk taking? Give me a break, the fact of matter is this country needs a depression to restore financial order, without that, a even bigger bubble is in the works.You advocated regulation, regulation, regulation, yet you blamed “where are the regulators”? Do you think it’s not contradictory? The bottom line, my dear professor, is that Americans can not live beyond their means forever. And you seem to think they can by doing some gimmicks. That’s flat false. Let the house prices fall, teach everyone a lesson that they need to live within their means, that’s only solution.
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Socialism did not work (yeah I know it because I saw if failed in China), and will not work.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I cannot agree with you more.
crgordon • September 24th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I have no debt. I have managed my finances very conservatively – living within my means. I own and live on two hectares of land in Costa Rica with my fruit trees, coffee trees and chickens. My children have no debt outside mortgages representing less than 25% of even their deflated market value. They have cash stashed for financial emergencies and no credit card debt. The obvious answer is “financial fools all”. My parents lived through the depression and lost their farm. I grew up with a single pair of shoes once a year and two pairs of jeans from Sears. Listening to Laurence Fink of Blackrock dismissing the hearings in the Senate as just so much “drama” is infuriating.With all due respect to the Professor, let the blood flow and crash these financial leeches. I prefer honest chaos with an opportunity for correction to the one last looting of the Treasury. I’ll take my chance on chaos.
Novice • September 24th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
This excerpt from FT article on Bernanke’s address:”In response, Bernanke replied that every American would feel “direct” negative effects if the credit crunch was allowed to continue or worsen. He said it would be difficult for consumers to get auto loans and for small businesses to expand.”Our modern economy cannot grow, cannot create jobs, cannot provide housing without effectively working credit markets,” the chairman told the Joint Economic Committee a day after being grilled by members of the Senate Banking panel.”My only concern here today is to try to find a solution that will stabilize credit markets so they can do their job,” Bernanke said.Credit markets were the “plumbing” for the “lifeblood” of the U.S. economy, according to Bernanke. If consumers and businesses go to turn on the tap and credit is not available, the economy would face a “grave threat.”Members of Congress continue to be uncomfortable with the $700 billion price tag. Still, no one on Capitol Hill has ever said that the plan was dead.One member argued that restricting car loans and small business loans was no justification for such a large expenditure.Taking another bite at the apple, Bernanke painted a very grim picture of the economic outlook with no passage of the Paulson plan.”This is not an inconvenience. What that is going to do is effect spending and economic activity and it will cause the economy as a whole to decline and be much weaker than it otherwise would be. It will affect the unemployment rate. It will affect job creation. It will affect real incomes. It will affect everyone’s standard of living. It is much more than car loans. It is really about the overall performance of the U.S. economy, perhaps over a period of years,” Bernanke said.”It almost seems as if they want to create a backlash against this bailout plan- that is how ridiculous it sounds. Oh how sad- people won’t be able to live on credit. We may actually have to pay with real cash??!!! We may actually have to save up for capital improvements and only buy what we can really afford. Credit won’t dry up either- it will just be harder to get. Without easy credit Household debt will eventually resolve itself- painfully yes, but in the long run it will be better for the country. People will have to wait to buy that wide screen TV, or vacation property, and instead pay off their loans.What really needs to happen is we need to hire a new “plumber” to rip out the old plumbing and put in the new improved plumbing. Get rid of Fractional banking- reinstate the laws against Usury, and let the wall street chips fall where they may- rather than saddling generations to come with a gargantuan tax burden. I prefer to live a lower standard of living, and ensure that my kids will still enjoy the benefite of a free republic. Rather than keeping the status quo on wall street and central banks.As for the Professor’s HOME plan, I am not qualified to comment- other than I think that any plan that continues to feed the beast that got us into this mess- is a plan we need to avoid. I understand the moral Hazards involved, and yes something should be done to keep people in their homes- I say lets sue the Fed- let those who are responsible pay. How about some of these very wealthy people donating some of that wealth to help their fellow citizens secure their homes- give them a tax write off or something. Give tax incentives to those of us who are responsible consumers, to purchase these homes at fair market value, and rent them to those who were not smart enough to know better. There has to be a better way than continuing to line the pockets of financiers at the taxpayers expense.Am I first???
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
The Paulsons and the Rubins and the Jamie Dimons are repaying their debts out of the property of the American people — openingly stealing while America’s representatives-of-the-people posture and pose for the cameras and sell us out, leaving nothing but a pittance of potage for our tables.
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I’m on your side. As long as we keep rewarding wall street criminals and punishing good honest people, there is no end of bubble in sight, there is no end of wealth transfer in sight (from poor to rich).Put the criminals behind the bar, even China will do that. I’m losing my confidence in this country, I came here hoping this country is a better place to live!
aleister perdurabo • September 24th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Toborrow and toburrow and tobarrow! That’s our crass, hairy andevergrim life, till one finel howdiedow Bouncer Naster raps on thebell with a bone and his stinkers stank behind him with thesceptre and the hourglass. We may come, touch and go, fromatoms and ifs but we’re presurely destined to be odd’s withoutends.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Let the credit markets lock up.If it is profitable to extend credit thensomeone will find a way.NO BAILOUT!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
NR, simply stated – this sure looks like a lot more than $700B. The $700B seems to even be short for buying illiquid debt from the banks as proposed by Paulson.Your plan is much more complete. The exsisting plan will fail to solve the entire problem and thus fail.
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Where will the money come from? Does the treasury have money? No, they don’t! So? Yeah, printing. OK, but…, should Zimbabuwei the richest country if you can print to thrive?Shhhh…., don’t tell the foreigners that we are just making a show to lure them in to foot the bill. Will the foreigners that dumb? Yeah maybe, but even if so, this will be the last time. The American empire will fall and has to fall.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Congressman Ron Paul has the answer: we can have a bad year and solve this financial mess brought on by fiat money (see his videos) or a bad decade by pouring on more. The bankers and corporatists use threats and dire warnings of recession and loss of pensions and standards of living if the people don’t bail them out. Their “needs” from the public to avert such “calamity” is growing from billions into trillions. These are the same people who told us Iraq would be a $50bn cakewalk. I remember well Bernanke’s dire warnings of black tragedy if the Congress didn’t divvy up $30bn for JPMorgan via Bear Stearns and bail out the country’s life-giving financial system.This $700bn on the table cum trillions for the bankers under the table is being sold as another power-sharing plan. In reality, what the billionaire bankers want is a pain-sharing plan – with all their pain foisted on the public.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
If the financial system can not operatewithout a bail out, then they shouldn’tbe operating.
GG • September 24th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Those of you who want the blood to flow ought to recall that no one is an island. Because a systemic breakdown will seriously touch everyone here and likely overseas, we all have a huge stake in avoiding one. Rather than seeking revenge, I’d urge you to focus instead, as Dr. Roubini has, on how to avoid such a breakdown in a way that protects society without, to the extent possible, rewarding those who got us into this mess.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
There it is, you’ve said it: “I prefer to live a lower standard of living, and ensure that my kids will still enjoy the benefite of a free republic. Rather than keeping the status quo on wall street and central banks.”America’s international bankers are smashing our existing economy and creating a chaos in which they alone will pick up the pieces. They’ve engineered the greatest crack in America’s financial history and now they want to be reimbursed.There can be no happiness for the people in this kind of economic life.
hazleton • September 24th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Is prevention of this systemic breakdown only meant to last until the election? Maybe a breakdown is inevitable in the long run no matter how we try to patch it.
AfA • September 24th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Professor, with all due respect, I have three questions/remarks concerning your 10-step HOME program:- The question about how to price these toxic assets is of paramount importance. Saying the price should be somewhere between mark-to-market and hold-to-maturity is not enough. We need a pre-conceived and exact pricing method/ formula, as pricing would differentiate between a successful and a costly bailout.- If the market itself, in these conditions, is not able to sort out between and solvent and the unsolvent banks, how could anyone claim is able to make that distinction (with all moral hazard, conflict of interest and profiteering ensuing from this situation)- How much will your HOME program cost, and how could it be financed?- How can we ensure that the bubble is not being reinflated (or attempted to anyway). Home prices, as well as corresponding mortgages NEED to go down significantly to sustainable levels. Therefore any solution should focus both on debt relief as well as orderly price deflation (for the best interests of new homeowners).Otherwise, without these details, it would seem that any bailout plan is similar to a 1st year business school student case-study: a solution without any details, implementation plan, strategy or financing plan.Sincerely,
Randy • September 24th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
PLEASE NR SUBMIT THIS PLAN TO CONGRESS. I SUGGEST YOU FAX IT TO ALL CONGRESSMAN AND SENATORS RIGHT NOW. MANY OF THEM WANT TO OPPOSE THE BAILOUT BUT NEED SOMETHING TO OFFER A S A PLAN INSTEAD. THIS IS IT……
Randy • September 24th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
LOOK AT MISH WEBSITE FOR ALL THE FAX # DETAILS. HE HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OF PROVIDING THEM
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
What are the implications for housing prices going forward if the 700 billion dollar bailout proposal goes through?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Lehman Brothers went bankrupt but still plans on paying out $2.5 billion in bonuses. No wonder Paulson wants no oversight. China and Saudia Arabia will be reimbursed $100 billion or more for investment in mortgage securities before any US banks get $1 so we can borrow more from them.This sounds a lot like a credit card junkie that uses money from new cards to pay off old cards.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
NEW YORK (AP) – Republican John McCain says he’s directing his staff to work with Barack Obama’s campaign and the debate commission to delay Friday’s debate because of the economic crisis.In a statement, McCain says he will stop campaigning after addressing former President Bill Clinton’s Global Initiative session on Thursday and return to Washington to focus on the nation’s financial problems.McCain also said he wants President Bush to convene a leadership meeting in Washington. Both he and Obama would attend the session.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
He is not ready
It’s too complicated
That’s OK, just send in the head of the Palin/McCain ticket.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
NR i think you are wrong. The recession will be L-shaped with or without bailouts.18 months of recession is very optimistic for a man with alias mr Doom.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
I agree.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I concur. All types of bailouts aims at restoring the no falling system.Sadly to say mister NR is also a champion of the true beast, artificially low interestrates. In my book thats what caused this crise.
devils advocate • September 24th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Paulson’s “quickie” – 2 1/2 page proposal – shows that he and Bernanke are in panic modeobviously, they never planned in advance- if they had, the plan would have been detailedbut instead, Paulson yelled “Fire!”the politicians are putting on a “show” to shift voter blame away from themselvesperhaps, a few actually are concernedit’s hard to tell with such consummate actorsquite a difference in how they questioned Bernanke from less than 2 years agothey used to treat B. as if were a reincarnation of the Great Greenspan
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Who said anything about revenge?This Bailout = Theft.Voting NO to this Bail Out isn’t revenge,it’s protection.If this bailout goes through, therewill be no resources left for aneffective bailout.
Jason B • September 24th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
That’s Dr. Doom to you, Guest
devils advocate • September 24th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
one of the earlier posts suggests that China Banks will be reiumbursed 100 BILLIOn DOLLARSfor the Lehman death – + and that its mangaement will walk away with 2+ BILLIONSno wonder the politician-actors are putting on a show for voters
Jason B • September 24th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Buffet buying in on Goldman reminds me of JP Morgan going onto the stock floor and buying stocks in October of ’29. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.They’ve lost control. He amounts are too much to bail out. The panic has set in. No matter what anyone does, it will make no difference now.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Rep. Joe Barton from Texas just said on CCN that the bill was “dead on arrival” in Congress, that it wouldn’t be passed, and that he normally votes with Bush 96 percent of the time.
Wild Bill • September 24th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
When you remove selective pressure, the organism weakens. The Eskimo say that the wolf keeps the Caribou strong. When you remove light, the blind cave fish loses its sense of vision. If a nocturnal hebivore ventures into the daylight, it soon becomes lunch for a daylight predator. It survives by altering its behavior to avoid selection. If you remove pathogens, immunity becomes impaired. If you bail out banks that ventured into dangerous waters, the banks will ultimately weaken and fail. Let the sharks prevail aand let selection fulfill its role.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Did JPM really do that?
Little Saver • September 24th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I agree, Paulson and Bernanke are using the classical either/or fallacy to cheat the public and their representatives. It is proposed as either Paulson’s plan or disaster.This is a lie (a classical one, used very often). Alternative proposals like this HOME, where Bank shareholders are diluted, may well have superior effects. These alternatives must be urgently proposed to public and congress members before it is too late.
val • September 24th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Do you understand what “raising the interest rates” means for the rest of us?val
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Don’t Sell Us Out,Don’t Bail Them Out!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Debt reduction for homeowners at least is not trying to re-flate the value of the homes, however, it still seems like it would be an artificial crutch to help sustain home values by keeping fewer off the foreclosure market – which intuition tells me is the antithesis of what needs to happen – asset deflation/correction. The markets have been inflating for 20 years, housing for 10 years before the crash – shouldn’t a return to the traditional price curve be the objective? Is it even possible to try and keep a deflating bubble (both housing & the market bubble it sustained) inflated?
Little Saver • September 24th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
This HOME plan, like other alternatives to the Paulson plan, must urgently be presented to public and congress members before it is too late.Paulson and Bernanke are using the classic either/or fallacy to cheat the public and its representatives. It is proposed as either Paulson’s plan or disaster.This is a lie (a classical one, often used).Alternative proposals like this HOME, with dilution of bank shareholders, may well have superior results and must be urgently proposed to public and congress.
BillyBoy • September 24th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
No he didn’t. That would have been stupid in 1929, like facing down an avalanche.He did step in during the Panic of 1907:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
I’m changing my name to Chryslerby Tom PaxtonOh the price of gold is rising out of sightAnd the dollar is in sorry shape tonightWhat the dollar used to get usNow won’t buy a head of lettuceNo the economic forecast isn’t rightBut amidst the clouds I spot a shining rayI can even glimpse a new and better wayAnd I’ve demised a plan of actionWorked it down to the last fractionAnd I’m going into action here todayCHORUS:I am changing my name to ChryslerI am going down to Washington D.C.I will tell some power brokerWhat they did for IacoccaWill be perfectly acceptable to meI am changing my name to ChryslerI am headed for that great receiving lineSo when they hand a million grand outI’ll be standing with my hand outYes siree I’ll get mineWhen my creditors are screaming for their doughI’ll be proud to tell them all where they can all goThey won’t have to scream and hollerThey’ll be paid to the last dollarWhere the endless streams of money seem to flowI’ll be glad to tell them what they can doIt’s a matter of a simple form or twoIt’s not just remuneration it’s a liberal educationAin’t you kind of glad that I’m in debt to youCHORUSSince the first amphibians crawled out of the slimeWe’ve been struggling in an unrelenting climbWe were hardly up and walking before money started talkingAnd it’s sad that failure is an awful crimeWell it’s been that way for a millennium or twoBut now it seems that there’s a different point of viewIf you’re a corporate titanic and your failure is giganticDown to congress there’s a safety net for youCHORUS
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
oh look a 100point reversal in the last 8 minutes of trading. Who’d a thunk it?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
“We are in a War. It is clearly Main Street against Wall Street. Everyone is taking sides. You must continue to email and fax and call your Senators and Congressman. We go into a Depression either way. But if Wall Street wins, we come out of this naked, crawling on our hands and knees. If Main Street wins, at least we come out with our dignity, standing tall to fight another day like Americans . . . not slaves to Wall Street pigs. “http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
TA • September 24th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
2009 – The Year of Unprecedented Leaps of FaithWe’re standing on the edge of the unknown while being asked to link arms and leap…We’re five weeks away from a general election where the presidential nominee for one major party, and the vice presidential nominee for the other major party are virtual unknowns to their fellow citizens.If that weren’t staggering enough,In less than 48 hours, 535 men and women (435 representatives & 100 senators) will enact legislation forever altering life as we know it, while attempting to remedy issues that less than 1 out of 100 competently understand (if you doubt this, view your reps web sites, their ignorance is stunning).
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
We don’t have any resource in the first place, it’s all borrowed money.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
why not give the 700 Billion to Main Street in the form of 700 Billion worth of infrastructure contracts to get blue collar and white collar jobs back to America…
JGU • September 24th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
The professor does not give any reason why he thinks it is a U shaped recession, why it is so different from the Japanese problem back then. The only difference I can see is Japanese save a lot and Americans don’t. But is that enough to make this country better in coping with crisis? Sounds like no to me.I understand after being so bearish and bold for so long, the good professor wants to put up a happy face and present himself as an ultimate optimist, otherwise, he will be remembered as an un-patriotic citizen. But, I truly suspect his prediction of an 18 month recession will be correct. Common sense tells me you can’t live with other people’s money for ever, 18 months are enough for American people to pay back, as simple as that. Give it a decade!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Is the reason Buffet bought into GS for there piece of the give away ?And if the FBI is investigating, would not the Gov, owning stocks be a conflict of interest.If i am out of the loop, sorry, have not had time to read today
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I believe we (main street) want to see “blood in the streets”. Therefore implement emergency “clawbacks”. No questions ask. Implement them by the end of the week. Come back Monday and tell us how much private money sitting on the sidelines was made off this mess and we (main street) collected from the clawbacks which can now be allocated to this mess. Force the private equity to fix this. It kills me this money sitting on the sidelines is just waiting to make a 50 percent return off the back of the middle class STILL !!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I would venture to say that at least $30 billion of the $700 billion will be used for bonus distribution payments at the end of the year for the banks…
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Paulson Plan:- blank check- no oversight- no questions asked- open-ended, could go higher than 700B
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Exactly!
pb_2_au • September 24th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
The credit markets are frozen because lenders realize that there is too much credit extended as it is. This is the free market working. Naked debtors need to be identified and their credit worthiness needs to be adjusted… be they overextended consumers or insolvent banks.The argument Bernanke & Paulson put forth credit being frozen keeps people from getting car loans as a bad thing mystifies me. We need to be making fewer car loans and live within our means.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
resources = our labor
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
the ban on short selling appears targeted to retail investors – all you have to do to short sell even the financials is to buy put options and sell call options (synthetic shorting) and you get exactly the same effect
Commissar 4822 • September 24th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
“The credit markets are frozen because lenders realize that there is too much credit extended as it is. This is the free market working. Naked debtors need to be identified and their credit worthiness needs to be adjusted… be they overextended consumers or insolvent banks.”Are there charts we can link to to monitor the credit market activity?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
@GG: Those of you who want the blood to flow ought to recall that no one is an island. Because a systemic breakdown will seriously touch everyone here and likely overseas, we all have a huge stake in avoiding one. Rather than seeking revenge, I’d urge you to focus instead, as Dr. Roubini has, on how to avoid such a breakdown in a way that protects society without, to the extent possible, rewarding those who got us into this mess.”You make a good point in support of what Dr. Roubini is saying. But certain provisions in his proposal resemble the FDR approach that, in the end, created the opposite of a republic and destroyed it.The central point is that America’s financial system is a service industry and its primary product is credit. This industry is failing and failing in its mission to America, not due to outside events, but because its practices and its customs have become fraudulent to the core.In order to take steps to remedy the situation to the point where America can again benefit from the service of such an industry, America needs to begin steps to change the core operational principles of this system. Reformers such as Roubini (who, let me say,is the most brilliant economist of our times) offer many steps and programs that are good, and eventually, would restore the system to its usefulness. But the problem is that these workable proposals are handed over to politicians who pick out the things they like and ignore the others. And the last thing these politicians will pick is reform of the system, which is the first thing they should pick.Politicians, including Ronald Reagan, have been fooled repeatedly. It is politically naïve not to assume that the politicians will pick out what they like in Roubini’s reforms, while leaving the same basically flawed system intact. In exchange for “fixing things,” they will mire Americans deeper and deeper in socialism. When the Great Depression came along it brought big problems — people stood in lines for jobs and food, people lost their farms and homes. But the end result of all the reforms and programs, primarily introduced by Hoover and carried out by FDR, destroyed the republic. It was world war that finally put Americans back to work.If every single proposal in Roubini’s plan works the way he thinks, it would get us through this crisis but water the seeds for an even deeper crisis, IMO. Saying we need more regulatory oversight is not enough. Even Paulson says that. Americans have had it with words, words, words.Before any proposals are implemented, Americans first want a plan that takes the evildoers out of the system, a plan that allows honest bankers to operate and profit. Professor Roubini’s Step 10 outlines the reforms. I suggest a better approach would be the following two steps. Step One: Punish to the full extent the fraud creators and separate them from legitimate, healthy operations. Step Two: All of the fixes shall not begin until Step One is completed
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Just got off the phone with my two senators’ staff. Phones there are ringing off the hook, sentiment is heavily against bailout, everyone wants:* taxpayers to get the same deal Warren Buffet got, and* an explanation from our “experts” about how things got this bad so “suddenly”Share the joy! Get on the phone, be civil to the staff (they’re loving this) and give them the gift of your participation in our democracy.www.senate.govwww.house.gov
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
As to Buffett, there’s no question that in buying a piece of Goldman Sachs as an insider, he is obviously getting something other than an investment (access to the vault?).
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I agree. Everywhere I go, I’m putting out this message:Invest in Main Street, Not Wall Street
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
But the financiers want us to be indebted upto our eyeballs for eternity, so they can continue to make a killing. Otherwise they may have to change jobs.
COMMISSAR 4822 • September 24th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
“Share the joy! Get on the phone, be civil to the staff (they’re loving this) and give them the gift of your participation in our democracy.”Q; HOW MANY DIVISIONS CAN AMERICAN VOTERS AND TAXPAYERS FIELD?A: ALL OF THEM, IF THEY BUT ACT!
L. Morgan Stanislaw • September 24th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
The taxpayer is too big to fail
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
The sad thing is that congress is:1)Not representing the electorate.They will end up backing it anyway with no or insignificant concessions.2)Not creating solutions or leadership.They are not creating any alternatives themselves.They are not doing their jobs.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Well for one things we (the voters, the taxpayers) aren’t overseas. This debate in large part is about who recapitalizes the banks. Do the taxpayers pay for all of it (the Paulson plan, probably also all its derivatives like the Dodd plan) or do the foreigners share the pain.Since I’m an American, I want the foreigners to share the pain. No bailout on Paulson’s terms.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
They don’t want to have to answer questions while it might actually matter. They don’t want to commit themselves until this thing is signed, sealed and delivered, to present a “unified front” on this.I don’t like it. This is exactly when and why we need a public debate with our two prospective next presidents.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
They said yesterday that they had cooked this up months ago and discussed it for a long time. But that they just decided to spring it on Congress this past week, because one week should be enough to get it done.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Hooray, my calls to my Texas Senators and Representative (not Barton) were appreciated!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Yes, he said that he would not have bought if he did not expect the bailout to pass! He even said so!!You can’t make this stuff up …
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Interactive Brokers won’t allow you to do those transactions if it gives you a net short exposure.Sorry they already thought of this a couple days ago …
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
appears to be a huge disconnect between the regular population and the government leadership – there should be a 100% link
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
WHY DOES EVERYBODY IN THE US KEEP CONFUSING THESE ACTIONS WITH SOCIALISM?IT IS NOT SOCIALISMIT IS FASCISMLEARN THE MEANINGS OF THE LANGUAGE YOU ARE ATTEMPTING TO USE
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
“We the People of America must not reward our government with more money and power for failure, as we did after 9/11,” says William Gheen (ALIPAC’s president.) “Otherwise, we have created a grand political and financial incentive for failure that will be repeated many times in the future.”ALIPAC is opposing the bailout of Wall Street with taxpayer debt because of the scale of the costs, the radical restructuring of governmental power, and the fact the Bush administration is seeking Amnesty for potential suspects who are at fault for the financial meltdown.”Instead of a bail out, we need immediate investigations, prosecutions and seizures of assets of any American or foreign business leaders who have violated laws and we need to hold politicians in DC and regulators accountable.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Why are there so many references to “bailout” … ifNR’s proposal is taking distressed assets and eventually selling them, taking equity stakes on behalf of the Treasury, etc. could this super-fund not be as successful as the RTC of the late 1980s??Or.. at least mitigate loses? Lectures on personalsolvency do little to reduce the nightmare risk on alldebt–including municipal bonds. The reality is the entire global system is joined with the hip. Wanna see 20% unemployment and wait 20 years for “free” markets to work out the excess?? Preposterous.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
(NECN) – President Bush says he is confident that Congress will pass a $700 bailout bill to deal with the financial meltdown that has shaken the global economy.Mr. Bush is in New York talking with world leaders before addressing the U.N. General Assembly today.He says he has been asked frequently about the U.S. financial problems.The president says he assured the leaders that the financial package making its way through Congress is “a robust plan to deal with serious problems.”He said there are ideas about how to change it, but that there is a desire to get a package done quickly.Mr. Bush said there will be natural give and take, but “There will be a bipartisan bill. Democrats and Republicans will come together” to pass this “rescue plan.”
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
By a margin of nearly two-to-one, Americans surveyed say the federal government is doing the right thing in intervening in the financial market credit crunch, and by a double-digit margin most voters say that Democrat Barack Obama is better-suited than Republican John McCain to deal with the crisis at hand.In the first full look at the public’s reaction to the bailout that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unveiled over the weekend, 57 percent of those surveyed by the Pew Research Center in Washington on Friday through Monday said the government was doing the right thing — and just 30 percent called the intervention the wrong thing.”Support for the administration’s plan to bailout many of the nation’s troubled financial institutions is largely bipartisan,” Pew President Andrew Kohut reports.The Sept. 19-22 survey of 1,003 adults also found that more voters view Obama as the presdential candidate best able to address the financial crisis :47 percent favoring Obama on that count, 35 percent McCain. Among independent voters, it’s Obama 44, McCain 30 on that question.For more on public attitudes toward the bailout and Obama and McCain, see the Pew Center poll.
Free Tibet • September 24th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
If today’s prices were firesale prices more people would be buying.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Phoenix Business Journal – by Mike SunnucksThere is little public support for the federal bailouts of Wall Street investment and insurance firms and growing worries the U.S. is headed for another Great Depression, according to new national poll by Rasmussen Reports.Rasmussen said only 7 percent of U.S. voters surveyed supported the federal financial bailouts with 65 percent saying they’d prefer letting the firms go under or deal with bankruptcy filings and restructuring.The Federal Reserve is helping insurance giant American International Group with an $85 billion bailout. The federal government has taken over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and promised to assume as much as $30 billion in Bears Stearns assets earlier this year to help with JPMorgan Chase’s acquisition of the investment house.The federal government has not yet acted in regard to Lehman Brothers Chapter 11 filing or Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch.Congress is also looking at massive loans for General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler to help the struggling U.S. auto industry.Presidential contenders John McCain and Barack Obama have begrudgingly backed the financial bailouts and also back federal loans to car makers.McCain likes a $25 billion plan while Obama supports a $50 billion auto industry bailout.The Rasmuseen poll also showed 45 percent of U.S. voters say it is at least somewhat likely the economy could face another Great Depression, up from 38 percent who thought that in March. Forty-eight percent think a depression is unlikely.Rasmussen surveyed 1,000 adults Sept. 15 and 16.
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
My guess is that those Pew poll numbers are out of date. Things have changed fast; Paulson overplayed his hand, and he’s lost control of the debate. People are hip to President Bush’s scare tactics, so we may see even more backlash after his speech tonight.Man the phones, write those letters, tell your friends. There’s an unscripted moment headed your way, and the PTB are scared witless. Get a front-row seat, and bring your tomatoes!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
How’s this for an idea – any institution that “needs” the bailout money will have their charter converted to a national credit union – and every U.S. taxpayer becomes a member. The charter limits the amount of executive compensation and requires that a dividend be paid to the members whenever revenue exceeds expenses by a certain percent.Credit Unions are an anathema to bankers, so you can add sweet irony to the payback!
PeterJB • September 24th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Oh, don’t worry, we will and we shall feel much pain too. You will not be alone but your pain will be far worse.Ho hum
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Chrysler now asking for another bailout
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
OK so were being told by the leaders of our country and economy that if we don’t give them a no strings attached $700 billion bailout that it’s going to be Great Depression all over again. The main problem though is that they are asking us the taxpayer to bailout the same Wall Street criminals that caused the mess, and if we don’t do it soon there is no doubt a collapse of our banking system like none of us have ever seen. Few details are being offered as way of proof of this, we have yet to see one balance sheet, or one technical analysis showing this doomsday scenario, but if we take them for their word they will save us all. I say thanks but no thanks for that check to nowhere.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
this was the same rushed argument that got us in to the Iraq war – give us the money now immediately or else the world will come to an end
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
why not give the 700 Billion for infrastructure projects across the US to US construction and engineering companies, with the banks investing in that?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Yep, and look how well that worked out.
artichoke • September 24th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
There is hope that we can overcome the darkness and find a right path into the future.We need more disclosure and stronger controls over the actions of those with unusual power in our economy.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Yes, GD used as the bogeyman.I think the outcome could be worse, or better, than the GD. And of course it will not be the same. We should avoid the fascism of corporate control, including the type of debt based control that would ensue if the Paulson plan is adopted or anything like it.Paulson plan will worsen this episode.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Mr. Paulson is incoherent, confused and sometimes disoriented, and doesn’t give answers clearly to the questions of comgressmen and is repetitive and mumbling. As a physician, I wounder his status of mind. Could he have Alzheimer’s disease? I feel he should be relieved from his duties managing this monumental economic crisis of our country.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Folks!Stop debating how to better spend those $700bn you don’t have in the first place!.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
This plan is so obscene. Is the government / FEDdeliberately trying to provoke the people?
PeterJB • September 24th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
It appears to me that there is too much insistence by Mr. Benanke and not enough reasons given; ‘not available car finance?’ Oh, dear me????You must consider that the possible reason for haste, as emphatically insisted upon by Mr. Benanke and Mr. Paulson, is more the outcome of the current investigations of fraud in the big ones by the FBIA, which could just be leaked, er, any moment now:”Investigators are reportedly examining possible fraud by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the failed bank Lehman Brothers and insurer AIG. Top managers at those firms are also being investigated, the reports say.”Ho hum
tutterfrut • September 24th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Don’t waste food! You might need it. And keep the seeds, you never know. If your grocery can no longer get credit.Mud will do…
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
There you go. Put the money where it can do our economy some good. R & D in energy conservation & renewables, robotics, low-energy-input food production, distance learning, health-care cost reduction…there are plenty of places to invest that kind of money where the returns would be long-standing and substantial.Put those out-of-work home construction crews to work weatherizing our existing housing stock. Payback period 10 years or less.Use the sea-land containers used to bring products in from China to take trucks off the highway and put them on faster, more frequent trains. Trucks only do local delivery.Many, many places to put our workers to work cutting our energy bill from now forward. $700B makes a big impact, everyone’s in on the game.Invest in Main Street, Not Wall Street
London STUD • September 24th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
What is the “real” bogey man that the boys from Wall Street are afraid of? It’s not just a market crash…Anyone?
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Debate away! The discussion should be about where we allocate scarce capital to stabilize and improve our middle class standard of living. The more people think about what we could be doing with that $700B the more involved they’ll become in setting our nation’s overall economic policy, and the more ridiculous it’ll seem to pour all that money down the Wall Street rathole.Step up to the microphone, folks! Where do you think we should point our economy?
PeterJB • September 24th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Damned good question, me thinks!!! Whatever, it is good reason for a revolution!Ho hum
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Congress SHOULD really be asking the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis whether they want to buy another $700 Billion Dollars worth of bonds since it is they who will be funding this bailout indirectly in any case…
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
How can Pew use the alleged fact that “by a margin of nearly two-to-one, Americans surveyed say the federal government is doing the right thing in intervening in the financial market credit crunch,” as “the public’s reaction to the bailout”? Sounds like a skewed poll to me.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
“The US might also be on the verge of a decision by foreign lenders to cease financing a country that claims to be a hegemonic power with the right and the virtue to impose its will on the rest of the world. The US is able to be at war in Iraq and Afghanistan and is able to pick fights with Iran, Pakistan and Russia, because the Chinese, the Japanese and the sovereign wealth funds of the oil kingdoms finance America’s wars and military budgets. Aside from nuclear weapons, which are also in the hands of other countries, the US has no assets of its own with which to pursue its control over the world.”http://www.vdare.com/roberts/080923_deregulation.htm
rich • September 24th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
If the free markets aren’t buying this debt then yes it is a bail out with potential for serious losses of tax payers money. But this bail out won’t solve anything unless it includes provisions for debt repudiation for consumers and even then there will be consequences. The finance economy or Fractional Reserve lending is a pyramid scheme and the underlying problem is at the base of the pryamid the consumers has no more capacity for further debt. When this tipping point occurs debt repudiation or deflation followed by bankruptcies is the only way to prime the system for further credit capacity. Of course the government can shift the burden or monetize the debt but there is no escaping the loss of wealth that will ensue.
tutterfrut • September 24th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Peak Fraud…
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
The FBI investigation is frosting on a turd congress is about to feed the tax payers a big turd but don’t worry because we promise to get the bad guys because we care about tax payers.When you read between the lines you see how manipulative and sinister government is, they mistake us all for fools most of the time!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
What happens if the USA is declared insolvent? What happens to the value of the dollar as a reserve currency? What happens to all the countries that price their commodities in USD? What about forex?Who is holding a sword over our heads?
Pecos Banker • September 24th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
McCain didn’t do his homework and should go immediately to the infirmary to get an excuse for missing class as well.
rich • September 24th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Good point but it’s not the deflation that fixes the problem it’s the combination of debt repudiation through bankruptcies after deflation, deflation alone won’t solve the problem.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Wow. McCain suspends his campaign to go to Washington to push the bailout bill per orders from Lynn Rothschild!http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/A_nonemergency_meeting.html?showallA non-emergency meetingThe McCain campaign’s new urgency about the financial crisis didn’t entirely clear his schedule this morning.My colleague Amie Parnes reports that he made it to his scheduled morning meeting with Lady Lynn de Rothschild, a Clinton backer who recently came out in support of him.All while Obama was waiting by the phone for a returned call.
kilgores • September 24th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
For a minute there, I thought you were about to quote from Macbeth:Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,Creeps in this petty pace from day to dayTo the last syllable of recorded time,And all our yesterays have lighted foolsThe way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor playerThat struts and frets his hour upon the stageAnd then is heard no more; it is a taleTold by an idiot, full of sound and fury,Signifying nothing.SWK
kilgores • September 24th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I’ve got a great live recording of Arlo Guthrie and Pete Seeger doing this number. Almost thought it had lost its relevance!SWK
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Can we call it a plutocracy, that is, rule by the wealthy, or the power provided by wealth? Can we say that our ongoing socialism morphed into fascism, and is morphing into a plutocracy in which the “degree of economic inequality is high while the level of social mobility is low?”Plutocracy can apply to a multitude of government systems, as, according to Wikipedia, “the key elements of plutocracy transcend and often occur concurrently with the features of those systems. The word plutocracy (Modern Greek: πλουτοκρατία – ploutokratia) is derived from the ancient Greek root ploutos, meaning wealth and kratein, meaning to rule or to govern.”And, may I add, rule by the average C voter combined with that of the D and F, creates an economic system by majority rule in which the basic means of production are primarily owned and controlled collectively by the government, i.e. socialism. May I add further, that a strong, centralized government usually ends up a system of government marked by stringent social and economic control, whereby the state takes high priority over individual rights, i.e. fascism.In all cases, the middle class is literally hunted down and eaten alive and extinguished. All three systems are engineered by, IMO, very dangerous people (often aided by the innocent). We are watching plutocracy unfold and overtake America as international financial anarchists join league with a rogue Congress to destroy the wealth-making apparatus of middle Americans.On this I hope we can agree.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Perhaps it is those who are attempting to control all the world’s finances through a the world central bank as Keynes had planned, that issues an international fiat currency. Once that is implemented, the game plan is to “collect unlimited resources from the citizens of the world through the hidden tax called inflation so the money stream can be sustained indefinitely.”According to G.Edward Griffin, “[This] game results in a hemorrhage of wealth from the industrialized nations…with a severe lowering of their living standards and their demise as independent nations…a new, high-tech feudalism, paying homage to their Lords in New York.” In short, world socialism.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Do you understand we have been borrowing money from the rest of the world. We are a debtor nation.
Alessandro - http://castellidicarte.blogspot.com/ • September 24th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
@Europen guestshave a look at RGE article “European banking on borrowed time” by Daniel Gross and Stefano Micossihttp://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/253731I have no idea where they get their data, but they claim a few euro area banks sport amazing leverage ratios, up to 50 (!!) for Deutche Bank.@London Bankerthe article also claims that Barclays has leverage of 60 (!!!) and liabilities for 100% UK GDP. Can you confirm or deny?You said Barclays is far too big to fail. But it also look far too big to save.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
NEW YORK (Reuters) – An unusual surge in Goldman Sachs’ share price in the last 10 minutes of trading on Tuesday raised eyebrows on Wall Street, as it came two hours before news of Warren Buffett’s big investment in the bank.Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares rose more than $5 heading into the close of trading even as the rest of the market tumbled, leaving traders suspicious that inside information was used to make a profit.”Obviously someone knew the Buffett news that was coming out. I noticed it yesterday and I was telling my colleagues something is going on with Goldman,” said Dave Rovelli, managing director of US Equity Trading at Canaccord Adams in New York.http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE48N7VR20080924?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
OuterBeltway • September 24th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
That is lack of sleep talking. But don’t be fooled. Mr. Paulson is a formidable, clever, intensely purposeful man. Do not make the mistake of underestimating him or his allies.
Guest1984 • September 24th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
At least THREE better ways to use $700 billions. Three better proposals than Paulson’s “plan”.Plan #I. Send $4,000 check to each family plus $30,000 extra to families in risk for foreclosure.Plan #II Government will use $700 billions to give loans DIRECTLY to businesses and individuals.Plan #III Government will use $700 billions for lending to banks and financial institutions only. Those which accept will NOT pay bonuses and CEO and managements salaries will be limited to ONE HALF of US president’s salaries until the loan is paid off. Government will get 51% of shares that will be returned when the loan is paid off.
PhilT • September 24th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Also, Ms. Pelosi/DEMs are further clouding the immediate issues with the distraction of “Blank Check” and “Executive Compensation.” Are people in California really going to re-elect her?To sum it up :A Shadowy Bailout Plan to perpetuate the remnant Shadow Financial System in an IB style “negotiation.”Obama has a real oppty. here.He should not only insist that McCain proceed with the scheduled debate on Friday, but declare that the entire debate will be focused on this “crisis” in order to clarify the situation to all Voters/Taxpayers/Consumers/…Citizens.Best…
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Good bumper sticker for the hoi polloi.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
When asked point blank why he needs $700 billion and exactly what he would do with it, Paulson stammers, stutters, and mumbles. WTF! We are talking about $700 billion and this slob just give it to me. I mean it makes me angry just thinking about it.
Alessandro - http://castellidicarte.blogspot.com/ • September 24th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Has anybody a good explanation of what’s happening with the federal funds rate?http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfmStarting 09/15 (Lehman collapse) the daily standard deviation is 10 times the normal one and the mean ranged from 2.80 to todays 1,46.Note that in the last four days the FED has removed a gargantuan $125bn from the banking system only to see the FFR happily sitting on 1,5 most of the time (!?).http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspxOnly explanations I can come to are:1. the FED has lost control of short term interest rates due to the flight to safety (could be temporary)2. a surprise 50bps rate cut could be announced anytime
Commissar 4822 • September 24th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
NEW YORK (Reuters) – An unusual surge in Goldman Sachs’ share price in the last 10 minutes of trading on Tuesday raised eyebrows on Wall Street, as it came two hours before news of Warren Buffett’s big investment in the bank.Wasn’t that Buffett buying shares?
PhilT • September 24th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
…The fact is that Goldman, having started out as a humble commercial paper house in 1869, has worked its way to the heart of the financial and political establishment. It has become the modern-day General Motors by convincing politicians and regulators that what is good for Goldman Sachs is good for the US economy…
Entire FT Article => Whatever is good for Goldman . . .
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
friends, its time to make our standwhat we do now will decide the future of our kids and theirs,most of us have lived a good life,i want my kids to have that opportunity too, i know there will be hardship,but i would like to endure it together with my family as freemen not slaves———————————————–hattip to:- Merrillgrinch from tickerforumYep. Wall Street must not be allowed to go bankrupt, whil Main Street must not be allowed NOT to go bankrupt.Paulson: Oppose Bankruptcy Help For Homeowners In Rescue PlanLast update: 9/24/2008 5:30:53 PMBy Michael R. Crittenden Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRESWASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday reiterated his opposition to Congress including a provision in the Wall Street rescue passage intended to help homeowners facing bankruptcy.”We oppose it on policy grounds and believe it is inconsistent with what we are trying to do here which is to increase the flow of funds,” Paulson said in response to a question during a House Financial Services Committee hearing Wednesday afternoon.Consumer groups and many Democrats have repeatedly pushed to allow bankruptcy judges the authority to modify the terms of mortgage loans on a borrower’s primary residence during the bankruptcy process. Current bankruptcy law prevents such modifications on loans for a primary residence but allows it for other assets, including vacation homes.The banking industry has vocally opposed attempts to alter current laws, and has thus far been successful in blocking congressional attempts to move legislation.The bankruptcy language is one of a number of provisions that lawmakers are discussing adding to the Treasury’s proposal to buy up to $700 billion of toxic assets from troubled financial firms.-By Michael R. Crittenden, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9273; michael.crittenden@dowjones.com
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
The one thing I learned in life is that if you do not “show up” nothing will happen. If we cannot rely upon John McCain to show up for the debates, then what makes anyone thing he will show up for the presidency?If my religious, gun clinging, gung-ho republican secretary is any measure of American sentiment, McCain just lost the election.
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
In the words of my Chicago school biased, laissez-faire loving, neo-liberal high school economics teacher:”Let the boogers die.”I bet he never imagined the greedy bankers would be the boogers.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
It probably was. Would you wait until after the announcement. Buffet is no fool. He always buys before it hits the news.PeteCA
Average Jane • September 24th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Amen, OB–here’s our rallying cry. Our bumper sticker.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I would ask NR to comment on how his plan fits in with the global picture of financial interdependence and the Ponzi schemes outside this country. What would he forecast for the dollar and interest rates in the USA and will foreign governments continue to invest in US Treasuries and longer term bonds.
Average Jane • September 24th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Love it!
Average Jane • September 24th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Folks, does anyone here except me think that the presidential election/candidates are irrelevant?
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Completely irrelevant…and how excellent is the W.S. extortion. You must submit to this bill and pay its onerous costs or you will pay much more later. In other words, you get the downside of risk and no participation in the upside. We butter sliced you from your richer and better connected superiors.
Mark • September 24th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Because as a nation we’re dead broke! There should be ZERO (non-existent/fiat) money printed/promised!Anything of value needs to go toward our debts. And we should be slashing our outrageous spending, esp. military. See the Fox clip of Ron Paul.
villager • September 24th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Re “The professor does not give any reason why he thinks it is a U shaped recession, why it is so different from the Japanese problem back then”, the Professor does give an explanation in today’s Conference Call which you may be able to access, certainly if you are a subscriber. I don’t recall the explanation exactly. Part of it is that Japan waited 2 years before lowering their discount rate whereas the US Fed has responded quicker during the current year. There was additional explanation but it has gone from my memory … Japon was slow in recognizing the need to recapitalize/liquify their banks. Japon allowed insolvent banks to exist too long.
JP • September 24th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Two thoughts1 – vote the incumbents OUT.2 – How many Baby Boomers do you know who are waiting for their depression-era parents to kick so they can afford to retire on the inheratence? Looking at my parents and their Boomer friends, they are all living at their means with little savings and have no chance of maintaining their lifestyle during retirement. The Boomer generation is in power in Washington and on Wall Street and they have never figured out how to be fiscally responsible.NO BAILOUT. I’d rather the $700 billion be used to shore up Social Security, repair our failing infrastruture, and fast-track alternaitve energy production.
Guest1984 • September 24th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Very RELEVANT!!! If you had republican Congress (with McCain in the middle), this SCAM would have been already accepted.
L. Morgan Stanislaw, III • September 24th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Some arbiter of thought on FOX News threatened the Dow losing 2000 points if a deal isn’t reached tomorrow. It’s extortion. Terrorism. There should be no negotiating with these financial terrorists.
Guest1984 • September 24th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Full agreement!!! Another 3 better plans comparing to Paulson’s SCAM.
Mark • September 24th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
That $700 billion DOESN’T exist! It’s an IOU to ourselves!People need to get it. We’re massively in debt. In this “bailout” proposal contains channels for money to go abroad. Why? Because if we don’t start paying off our creditors they will stop financing our debt- WHAM! GAME OVER!
Guest1984 • September 24th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Clarification: vote the incumbents OUT – incumbents who will support Paulson’s SCAM.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Why did Lady Lynn de Rothschild switch from being a Hillary Clinton supporter so suddenly to McCain after the financial crisis became “full blown”?What could McCain offer Lady Rothschild (and the Rockefellers, also McCain supporters), that Clinton/Obama could not?What did Lady Rothschild say to McCain this morning that led him to suspend his campaign immediately afterwards?What, in essence, do families like the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers have to lose if the bailout is not passed?
Maggie • September 24th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Well what do you think is going to happen in Costa when this thing goes global, which it already sort of is. Seems to me there would be lots of pressure put on Costa from left down there, but I guess if you’re going to be in the middle of chaos, that would be the place to be, outasight waves. Watch out for Danny boy next door.(
ptm • September 24th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Thank you for your earlier comments on Quants. It quantified (no pun intended) for me how the debt exposure of each institution basically unknown. So, if these guys cannot tell what their debt exposure is, how does Paulson “know” it is $700 billion. He doesn’t, it’s just a low ball suckers number.BTW there was a recent MIT Tech Review article on Quants and if you are interested, I can try to dig up a URL. The article was superficial compare to your analysis except for the fact that the Quant’s algorithms automatically perform almost 50% of today’s trades along with the fact that a given algorithm used to have an effective life of three years, but today it’s more like three months before its performance is usurped by another Quant’s algorithm!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
The Rothschilds and the Rockefellers know the CDSs are unwinding with Lehman gone.
Jesse • September 24th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
this is such a farce.Here sign this or the next thing you see will be a financial mushroom cloud.http://tinyurl.com/3wkre9
villager • September 24th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
What seems to have caused the panic reaction by Paulson/Bernanke in requesting $700 billion to purchase assets is that supposedly the financial markets came close last week, Wednesday, to a complete financial meltdown. In today’s conference call for which there is an audio link attached to the above article, the Professor made reference to the threat of the meltdown. Personally, I don’t understand what is meant by a complete financial meltdown. The choice of words does suggest why Congress’ first reaction was to say that they would roll over immediately. I would surmise that somehow or other the liquidity problems on Wall Street must be affecting the liquidity/solvency of Main Street. There is also the issue that last week a money market fund “broke the buck”, whatever that means. I interpret this to mean that people’s pension funds are in jeopardy. If so, the anger of the electorate will be fueled when they see their 401k statements. I think government is doing a disservice to its citizens by not clarifying the financial situation.
wawawa • September 24th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Enjoy this, David Letterman Reacts to John McCain Suspending Campaign
http://tw.youtube.com/watch?v=XjkCrfylq-E
PhilT • September 24th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Now that will definitely hold its value through this long mess !Best regards andHappy listening …
Average Jane • September 24th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Point taken, ’84. I still think it’s just an exercise in futility, though. The fact that Hank even attempted to do a super-power-grab-end-around and in Plain, In-Your-Face-Whaddaya-Gonna-Do-About-It-Sight, makes me think he plans on being Secretary of the Treasury for a looooooooong time.
mammon • September 24th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
1)Equity Participation will be the big sticking point. Paulson does not wantequity participation in the reverse auctions. He will concede equity participation in takeover of insolvent banks. His buddies are ready for thereverse auctions. He wants to cull the heard on community banks!2)Mortgage Mitigation is taboo to Paulson’s buddies3)Reregulation is anathema! They would not be able to do it one more time!4)They may concede Bankruptcy Cramdown in a pinch!5)Oversight and review are already conceded.THE MOTTO IS DEAL TO STEAL ANOTHER DAY!!!!WATCH THEM EXPAND THE FDIC LIMITS AFTER THE DEAL IN DONE!!!by the way! Hank Paulson has an inherent conflict of interest and isviolating the trust of the american people. He is negotiating for thebanks while claiming to represent the taxpayers! He should be forcedto recuse himself!
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
This bailout was a done deal from the get-go. The snakes in Washington know who they work for- and it isn’t you. They are simply playing to the home crowd, feigning concern while lobbing beach balls at Ben and Hank. What a disgusting exhibition.What happened to a bailout fashioned after the Swedish model in 1992?
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
From a comment above this bailout sounds like getting a new loan to make a payment for a bad loan so that you can get a bigger new loan all from the same creditor.
hazleton • September 24th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
I keep thinking that Bush must have Alzheimer’s
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Yep. How about this Hank…we’ll give you the money we don’t have. However, as to oversight, every dollar spent will be accounted for in the national papers for the public to peruse along with your physical address and all your contact information. And no, we aren’t going to provide you with a security detail.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Dude you could make a lot of loans to businesses and individual with $700 Billion. And the new Bank of the U.S. could collect interest on the damn things too.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Here’s my prediction …At the end of the week, maybe Friday around noon (Eastern), a great pronouncement comes out of Washington. “Hooray folks! We’ve reached a comprommise and passed the rescue bill. The country and Wall St are saved … and everything is great”. The Dems claim a victory because they knocked the amount down from $700 billion to $600 billion and tacked on some minor bailout allowance for homeowners. And the Republicans claim a victory because they’re all supporting the President, and isn’t it great to reach a victory ahead of the Nov elections? So we’re one big happy family.But the real reason for all this cr** – if it trasnspires – is simply this … why do you think the big Wall St banks have been dumping huge sums of money into the election campaigns of all the senators and congressmen on the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee? C’mon now. When the chips are down – Wall St is going to collect on that tab. In a big way. It wasn’t done for nothing.I sure hope this prediction doesn’t happen, and by some miracle the rescue fails. But I can practically smell this outcome in the wind. And if it does happen they we’ll all know one thing … Hank Paulson is now running our country.PeteCA
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Can our feckless Congress not connect the dots here? This is the final heist of the US Treasury on their way out the door by the sociopathic thieves running this country. Just like the specter of the mushroom cloud after 9/11 to justify invading Iraq, they are now crying GD if they are not handed $1 trill+ immediately. And for what? We will probably have a Depression with or without this pig. Who will GS sell all this MBS to once they buy it back from the treasury for less than the inflated price it was purchased from the banks for in the first place? If its market is .20 now, it will be .10 in 6 months to a year as the underlying assets continue to deflate. They will be back next Spring for the second $700bil. The unfettered free market created this mess, let the f___g unfettered free market fix it! This bailout in some form will pass unfortunately,with the spineless Democrats claiming victory because of some meaningless concessions Paulson knew he’d have to give anyway. Frank and Dodd are no match for him. Too bad== it’s a death warrant for the US.
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Watched Bush, then watched Rachel Maddow. Good show and worth checking out. She reported that the Democratic Finance Commitee chairs in both the House and the Senate have indicated that some form of this bailout bill will pass within the next 2-3 days. Another commentator said may be done late Friday.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Dylan Ratigan, who I normally like, made a complete fool of himself on Fast Money today, by saying that the bill needs to be passed and that the problems related to the credit crisis and blame and all that is irrelevant right now.What he fails to consider is that Bernanke and Paulson don’t have a fucking clue how to fix the problems and cannot be trusted, and that overpaying banks for bad assets is another sham that ultimately will fail because the payment is not a function of true supply and demand.He too is just a puppet of TPTB, as well as the other morons on Fast Money. And Jeff Macke, who at least is familiar with a lot of smart people on Minyanville and their view that this bailout is another scam, doesn’t have the fucking balls to speak up and say that the plan should not be passed. In this sense Macke may be even more guilty than the other fools on CNBC because he knows better but refuses to speak up. Is he afraid of losing his job on Fast Money? I’m sure he’s in good enough financial shape that he doesn’t need CNBC paychecks. What a fucking clown.What should happen is to let all these banks fail and if govt is going to bail anyone out, help people directly who are facing foreclosures, rather than propping up stock prices that will eventually crash because the free market is bigger and more influential than even the government and all of its puppets at CNBC.
hazleton • September 24th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Someone must have the statistics on donors and amounts they are spending on all top government officials and the presidential candidates. Care to share?This would be an eye opener, I’m sure.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Looking like 700 Billion is just the beginning…more recent estimate from Bloomberg now saying 5 Trillion:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8DIq9yO0vzY
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
By the way, Greenspan is now an advisor to John Paulson’s hedge fund, the guy who made billions shorting the housing market.
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
For any numbers people Gary Shilling former chief economist for Merrill Lynch was interviewed on Dan Rather reports. Said we are about half way through home price adjustment and that he expects peak to trough drop of 35%. By his reckoning this will put 1 in 3 homeowner upside down in their mortgage and half of those people may mail in their keys and walk away. Couldn’t find the video online yet, but the show will probably be repeated on HDNet.
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Updated polling:33% Against31% For28% No Opinionhttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/09/24/wsjnbc-poll-voters-split-on-bailout-plan/?mod=googlenews_wsjTonight’s Presidential Address was a push to sway that 28%.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
And they always cry wolf. Who can believe anything they say anymore? Congress can’t clarify the country’s financial situation because it only knows what Bernanke and Paulson want it to know. Frank and Dodd think they are big wheels but they are flat out traitors to the taxpayers. One of the few representatives the taxpayers have is Ron Paul and the party-system quickly erased him from the presidential race: our party system actively works to enslave the hand that feeds it.
K in TX • September 24th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Interesting…Independents had highest rate of disapproval. So maybe the candidate who stands against this could gain an edge in the polls.Independent voters registered some of the highest levels of disapproval, with 45% opposing the plan, while 29% approved, and just 22%–the lowest of any subsection of voters—had no opinion.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Here is EXACTLY what I’m talking about …news item on Wed night (Sep 24′th) …”The Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama agreed that the crisis was close enough to catastrophe to set partisan considerations aside and help President Bush push his bailout package through Congress before the markets open Monday.”With due respect, I doubt that either Mr Obama or Mr McCain have got the slightest clue about the in-depth functioning of the US economy. But they can sure agree that there’s a big crisis going on. After all everyone’s running around in the Capitol, people have got their lights on late at night, and Congress sure wants to go home by the end of the week.Tell me … did either candidate review all the alternative proposals that have been put forward in the past few days – all the alternatives to what Paulson is suggesting??? Did they even read one alternative idea at all?In the mean time, people should read Mike Shedlock’s blog tonight – with comments about the credit markets falling apart. What’s likely to happen is that the clowns in the stock market have a big party at the end of this week and push the Dow up by a few hundred points when the rescue is announced. And then after that the US whole market crashes. Let’s see … we’re pretty close to October now.PeteCA
Average Jane • September 24th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Naked Capitalism is reporting there’ll be an announcement tomorrow at 10:00 Eastern that an agreement has been reached–they don’t need John McCain to swoop in and save the day, after all. Gawd help us all. Barney Franks is standing in for me, the feckless taxpayer. He is not up to the task.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I find this paragraph hard to believe: “Consumer groups and many Democrats have repeatedly pushed to allow bankruptcy judges the authority to modify the terms of mortgage loans on a borrower’s primary residence during the bankruptcy process. Current bankruptcy law prevents such modifications on loans for a primary residence but allows it for other assets, including vacation homes.”Is Crittenden saying that under present law people with vacation homes get favorable bankruptcy terms but primary homeowners don’t? If so, without seeing the law, I don’t believe it. The only modification I know on vacation homes, is that the Bush administration took away the right of vacation home owners to live in that home for two years and then sell it using their one-time $250,000 ($500,000 a couple) capital gains exemption.
AfA • September 24th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Easy.Just turn over the toxic waste a little bit more than 7 times and it will do the trick. That is a 2.4 turnover per month, or a $700 every two business weeks, if Paulson wants to finish his work before leaving office.With a 33% loss upon sale, he can sell toxic assets as fast as 4 days after their purchase, for him to be always keeping a $700B outstanding balance at any time (which will require him a weekly injection of capital of $460B.
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Pete,While I agree with most of your points, the one that I don’t agree with is the imminent passage of the bailout package as you predict. Two reasons:1. Politicians are political animals by nature. Whether they lie to their constituents to get elected, or whether they accept kickbacks from Wall Street, in the end, they only care about getting elected. They know full well that if they vote for this bailout, voters will vote them out.2. A passage of this bailout could help McCain close the gap with Obama rather quickly. Bush will save the nation, and McCain will surely capitalize on that. I predict the Dems will stall long enough in the name of protecting the tax payer and pass the bulk of the plan after the election. But as the song goes, who am I to blow against the wind…
Mark • September 24th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
More threats of WMD- Weapons of Mortgage Destruction!”The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins; all of them imaginary.” – H.L. Mencken, 1923
Anonymous • September 24th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Reuters just reported 20 minutes ago that the Chinese regulators have instructed all Chinese banks to STOP lending money to U.S. banks. This is terrible news..
commissar 4822 • September 24th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins; all of them imaginary.” – H.L. Mencken, 1923I don’t know if J6P, aka John Q. Public and John Q. Taxpayer are particularly alarmed by the phantoms presentedby Bush, BB and HP. I think resistance is strong among the constituents. They can scare politicians with votes morethen these anecdotal wall street monster stories.
Guest • September 24th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
anon,its DONEhttp://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2448412920080925(Adds details)WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) – U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans plan to meet on Thursday to draft a final bipartisan Wall Street bailout bill, a Democratic source said on Wednesday night.”Not too many unresolved issues remain,” the source said.The source spoke after meetings earlier in the day by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of the House of Representatives and Senate.House and Senate Democrats, along with some Republican committee members, intend “to sit down at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) tomorrow to draft a final bipartisan bill to be passed and signed into law,” the Democratic source said.Earlier on Wednesday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd emerged from a meeting with Paulson and other Democratic senators saying there was no deal yet on a financial bailout bill, but he expressed optimism one could come soon.”We’re not there yet,” Dodd told reporters, adding there was a “good possibility we’ll get there in a day or so.”Dodd refused to discuss details of the negotiations, but said lawmakers would work deliberatively on a bill he said could have an impact for “decades.” (Reporting by Richard Cowan and Thomas Ferraro; Editing by Peter Cooney)
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:00 am
And now the FBI is going to investigate to see if there was fraud by Lehman, AIG and Fannie and Freddie – after they’ve all failed and been bailed, except Fuld, and he’s probably going to receive a bonus. So why the mock investigation after the wheeling and dealing is a fait accompli? It’s because Congress is getting unbelievable heat from back home that Wall Street investment bankers are fraudsters, cheaters, and crooks who have manipulated their situations to take money from other people and now want tax money to get through their “crisis.” Thank heaven there’s an American economy out here, like a huge buffer, that will only take so much from them without coming back and cutting them to pieces.These are private, eight-figure bankers to whom Congress is giving our money, for crying out loud, and the Fed is a private cartel, for Pete’s sake. Tonight the Fed is thinking of pushing interest rates down even more and generating more inflation tax and trashing the dollar, which gets me to thinking a lot more big casino player are on the edge of total meltdown. Once the public sees a few of them melt down and nothing happens, then those of us who helped build this economy can get on with rebuilding our livelihoods.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:03 am
God help us.
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 12:12 am
gee, but it would sure be nice to have back that 2.3 trillion don rumsfeld announced on september 10, 2001 the pentagon couldn’t find, wouldn’t it? since we need money, maybe we could close down a military overseas base or two – you know, leaving ourselves with only 750 or so? i know that after dick cheney took away our breadwinner’s job years ago, i had to sell my grandmother’s few small, sentimental treasures just to feed my kids…anyway, i really would give anything to know if a soul in congress has read Mr. Roubini’s plan. Thanks, Mr. Robini, for trying so hard to help.and ya know what george bush? GO TO HELL, You little fraction of a man. what an utterly disgusting speech tonight.China has stopped lending to us??????????
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 12:15 am
I guess that’s why there is an agreement. The Chinese banks are afraid there will be no deal and BB will have to solve the problem by PRINTING.Well I would prefer that BB prints, and includes the Chinese in the pain,than pay the whole thing ourselves.Bush justified this plan by saying that alternatives would cost the typical American family more. I doubt it but even so, it’s the principle of the thing. I am willing to take a worse hit for the purpose of frustrating this extortion!
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 12:16 am
For the sake of fairness, the threat is real. The problem is that those in power found the infallible strategy: Represent an “unimaginable” threat as being the alternative of whatever they want/plan to do. But why not push it a little bit farther: Create a false-flag operation from which an “unimaginable” and “unacceptable” threat may develop an alternative of whatever they want/plan to do. It is the Village all over again.Haven’t we seen this plot playing over and over again? I am sorry, but I have reasons to become that cynical/paranoid.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Why aren’t they looking at Goldman and Morgan too?Well I guess we know the answer to that, and it is not that Goldman and Morgan are choirboys.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 12:21 am
I am sorry for the suffering you have endured.The Chinese are probably trying to make sure there’s a deal that does not involve Bernanke inflating. But that’s exactly what Bernanke should do.See, the banks will be recapitalized. The only question is whether the money for that will be added to the money supply, or taken out of the hides of US taxpayers.Simply printing money and giving it to banks is the first option. The Chinese don’t want that.Printing the money and giving it to the banks, then “sterilizing” by taking that money back from taxpayers, is the Paulson/Dodd/Bush/China option.Needless to say whatever China says, I vote for the first option. Let China stop buying our bonds. It will destroy us to be required to pay back all the money the bankers lost. It will ruin our lives and make us slaves.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:36 am
is it also so that this is not a “bad debt problem” but a leverage problem?Isn’t the amount of bad debt at the institutions something like 5%? And the reason to this crisis that the institutions are over-leveraged?According to a newsletter by John Mauldin, SEC gave five banks the ability to lever up 30 or even 40 to 1 back in 2004.So the crisis could well be a setup; they should have known that that amount of leverage was unsustainable, but wanted to drive up the leverage to have a crisis so that they could pass some changes that could not be passed otherwise?
Man • September 25th, 2008 at 12:41 am
US government, administration, media, politicians and people in power have been fooling its people for decades. Be it Iraq, Afghanistan, WTC, Iran or be it in financial markets, citizens of US and International community has been fooled. Now comes an event when it requires a thought, a moment “Tryst with destiny” even then these guys are fooling all of us. For last 2 years NR and lot of other bloggers predicted in detail how things will unfold in US markets. During this time Administration, Media (CNBC in particular) and Fed made US citizens believe that everything is fine, orderly and under control and there is no reason to feel concerned. People who were predicting a fall were branded as Lunatic, Mad etc. Facing the realities administration has suddenly pressed a panic button just as they did for Iraq and Afghanistan. Paulson and Bernanke’s team wants to move forward as quickly as possible. But It will be in interest of US that this bailout is debated and different scenarios drafted to come to most viable scenario. That may not lead to same respect (read power) US had in past internationally but it will surely give a food for thought for power brokers and US citizens. This is the moment for US to face “Tryst with destiny”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:57 am
now we have become drones/peons/slavesand there is still Depression to comeowwh i also heard Mexican Cantarel oilfield is producing 9% less…people are saying with oil below 100USD eveything gonna be goodstoopid, what does physical amount have to do with pricing, it doesnt matter price go below USD50 or up USD100, its only value in PAPER, the physical amount stays the same, and its depleting!!!sorry for the rant, we could have use the money to build future energy infrastructure/transportation, bla bla blainstead its spent to bring back **** from the dead
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:00 am
Good, China, stop lending money to US Banks.No money to buy stuff you produce withexploited labor. Time for you to crash anyway.
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 1:23 am
…With a pillar of U.S. power so badly shaken, there was a certain satisfaction among some of the attendees that the Bush administration, which had long lectured other nations about the benefits of unfettered markets, was now rejecting its own medicine by proposing a major bailout of financial firms. But there was also serious concern that the United States had not policed its markets carefully enough to prevent the damage to its economy and others, making it much harder to raise money for the world’s most vulnerable people….
Entire IHT Article => Upheaval on Wall Street stirs anger in UN
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:24 am
@JP: “2 – How many Baby Boomers do you know who are waiting for their depression-era parents to kick so they can afford to retire on the inheratence? Looking at my parents and their Boomer friends, they are all living at their means with little savings and have no chance of maintaining their lifestyle during retirement. The Boomer generation is in power in Washington and on Wall Street and they have never figured out how to be fiscally responsible.”JP, I think you have been misled by the MSM. Most baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are the salt of the earth and have worked hard, many of them having to live on the paychecks of two wage earners. A miniscule percentage send their elderly parents to nursing homes. Many must absorb expenses from their elderly parents who increasingly are being forced into reverse mortgages just to stay in their homes.I remember receiving a newsletter around 2001 from Aetna, my 401k plan provider, containing a small news item that Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was concerned over the adverse effects the large inheritances that boomers would receive from their parents would have on the economy. Well, I believe he and Bernanke and Congress have taken care of that worry, as more and more boomers taste the bitter fruit of despair and disillusionment as their social security and 401k pensions devalue daily by double-digit inflation.Definitions used in 1985 to describe yuppies and yuffies illustrate my point that boomers have been exploited the same as everybody else. The information is from Probe Ministries:Yuppies were defined as 25- to 39-year-olds who live in metropolitan areas, work professional or managerial occupations, and earn at least $30,000 if living alone and $40,000 if married or living with someone else. Using that definition, there were only four million yuppies in 1985—constituting just 5 percent of all baby boomers.Yuffies were defined as baby boomers making less than $10,000 a year…a full 40 percent of the baby boom generation. In 1985, yuffies were roughly eight times as numerous as yuppies. In the 1990s the trend continued…By 1983…a 30-year-old man needed to commit 44 percent of his income to meet the carrying charges on a median-priced house. That same year, 65 percent of all first-time homebuyers needed two paychecks to meet their monthly payments…By the end of the 1970s, Fortune magazine estimated that baby boomers had effectively lost ten years’ income when compared with the earnings of the generation just preceding them… Changes in the corporate world throughout the 1980s exacerbated the problem. “Downsizing,” “streamlining,” and “merging”… by major corporations eliminated whole levels of middle and upper management… Belt-tightening measures in the 1980s forced employees to be content with lower wages and smaller wage increases.It was predicted salaries would “probably barely keep up with the cost of living and taxes…looking at very modest wage increases in the 1990s.”http://www.leaderu.com/orgs/probe/docs/disillus.html
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 1:31 am
Dear Professor/Dr. Roubini,Thank you for making the Conference Call available. Your remarks created a more expanded level of understanding for me of the US and Global Econ. situation as well as the specific issue of Treasury policy, and the questions that were asked/answered were extremely relevant.I sincerely hope that those in charge are at least in possession of your plan above.Respectfully,
Ralph • September 25th, 2008 at 1:33 am
The threat may be real to a point, but really how large?Who would die?How many less meaningless widgets would “consumers” be unable to buy and throw away?Would the sun rise and set?This is decidedly NOT the end of any real world.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:36 am
And are we gonna pay…and pay…and pay.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:40 am
I’m with you. Freedom is beyond price.
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 1:40 am
If by irrelevant you mean that the hands of the next President (whomever he/she might be) are already tied to the foreign policy, economic and fiscal wreckage that is still being perpetrated, then I can see your point. Impeachment should never have been taken off the table by Pelosi & Co.
Ralph • September 25th, 2008 at 1:44 am
Prediction OneThe deal will be done for sure.Prediction TwoOpen market operations will follow with a big share market hike to prove how successful the deal was (even though nothing has yet been done).Prediction TheeMetals will be taken down to prove they are not needed as a hedge anymore.Prediction FourUSD will rally and gain back all the ground lost to the Euro to prove all is well.
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 2:00 am
Houses will keep on dropping in price.
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 2:04 am
Your two prospective next presidents have no academic learning and little to no experience in macroeconomic matters. Much better would be a debate between their economic advisory teams.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Commentary by Michael Lewis: America Must Rescue the Bonuses at Goldman SachsSept. 24 (Bloomberg) — Anyone who caught even a sliver of yesterday’s hearings in the U.S. Senate on the proposed Treasury bailout of the mortgage-backed securities market knows that the current financial crisis is far from over. Suddenly all sorts of previously unthinkable catastrophes seem possible.The total collapse of the global financial system is one thing — everyone at Davos in January saw that coming. But the shrinkage of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bonus pool is another. Whatever else the Treasury achieves it must know that if the employees of Goldman suffer any sort of pay cut, it will be judged to have failed. And our country may never recover.Last year Goldman paid its employees $20 billion, 44 percent of the firm’s revenue. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein took home $68.5 million, and many otherwise ordinary human beings took home $10 million or more.This inspired young people everywhere, many of whom may have privately wondered whether it was still worth their time to become investment bankers. Torn between a future in, say, the law and the manufacture of mezzanine CDOs they sucked up their courage and plunged onto Wall Street. And thank God for that: We needed the best and the brightest to get us into this mess, and we’ll need the best and the brightest to get us out of it.Therein lies the problem: If they see Goldman’s salaries and bonuses declining, who among the best and the brightest will be induced to join Goldman?Goldman’s PainTo its credit the government has thus far done pretty much all it can to prevent any suffering inside the firm. Its extreme sensitivity to Goldman’s pain is the only way to explain its actions thus far. But its approach has been crude; it has been using a sledgehammer to do a scalpel’s job. For instance, by banning the short-selling of shares in the amazing number of Wall Street-related companies that America apparently can’t live without (Moody’s Corp.?), it may have prevented Goldman from being driven out of business. Certainly, the ban caused Goldman’s share price to fall less than it otherwise would have.But this wise policy ignores the fact that Goldman Sachs, perhaps more than any other financial firm, makes a lot of money from the short-selling of Wall Street-related stocks — by enabling its hedge-fund clients to do it.Bold StrokesGoldman needs any revenue it can get its hands on right now. A wiser policy would have been to disallow the short-selling of Goldman’s shares alone, and let the other 925 financial-related companies collapse. Goldman was already well-positioned to devour little pieces of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc. If other firms were allowed to suffer a bit more, Goldman would consume their juiciest bits too, and become stronger for it. (Come to think of it, Goldman should just get it over with and buy Moody’s so it can rate its own securities.) Perhaps its share price might cease to fall.This points to what amounts to a character flaw inside the Securities and Exchange Commission: fear of the bold stroke. Clearly it wasn’t enough to ban the short sale of Goldman’s shares, as those shares resumed their downhill journey. What’s needed is a broader ban on pessimism of any sort. Worrisome newspaper articles, whispered conversations, mildly skeptical thoughts, anything that might adversely affect Goldman’s share price: all these, too, must be outlawed.Paulson’s PaydayLately, for instance, I have heard several hedge-fund managers gossiping about Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. One of the things they say is that, in leaving Goldman for government service, Paulson made the greatest trade of his life. Not only was he required to sell his half-billion dollars in Goldman stock near the high, but also, as Treasury Secretary, he was exempt from capital-gains taxes. By getting out of Goldman while the getting was good, the guy may have doubled his net worth.These hedge-fund managers are the very same people who just a few days ago were shorting Goldman’s shares and now have nothing better to do with their time than gossip about an esteemed Goldman alumnus. Shame on them. Their idle chit-chat is just the sort of negativity our government needs to ban.But I don’t want to dwell on the government’s failure. As I say, so far they’ve done a pretty good job making sure no one at Goldman Sachs suffers so much as a scratch on his person. I want to look to the future.The Treasury has proposed using $700 billion of taxpayers’ money to buy the shaky investments created by the likes of Goldman Sachs and sold to customers. This is good, for many obvious reasons, and one less obvious one, too. Obviously, it has slowed the market’s desire to put Goldman out of business. It also offers Goldman a place to stuff its bad investments at prices well above market levels.But the Treasury plan also creates this wonderful hidden opportunity for Goldman Sachs to make a killing, and thus preserve its bonus pool for a long time to come.Poker GameThink of Wall Street as a poker game and Goldman as the smartest player. It’s sad when you think about it this way that so much of the dumb money on Wall Street has been forced out of the game. There’s no one left to play with. Just as Goldman was about to rake in its winnings and head home, the U.S. government stumbles in, fat and happy and looking for some action. I imagine the best and the brightest inside Goldman are right this moment trying to figure out how it uses the Treasury not only to sell their own crappy assets dear but also to buy other people’s crappy assets cheap.At any rate, it won’t take long for Goldman Sachs to figure out how to make that $700 billion work for Goldman Sachs. This you can trust them to do. After all, Warren Buffett just did.(Michael Lewis is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of “The Blind Side,” “Moneyball” and “Liar’s Poker.” The views he expresses are his own.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a6a6nqXGVdZY&refer=home
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:13 am
if so it was a coordinated effort involving not just mortgages but also credit cards. At least that is the impression I get from this article:Credit card insiders tell of deceptive practiceshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080924/us_nm/us_usa_economy_creditcards
Two former employees of credit card issuer MBNA, now owned by Bank of America, said on Wednesday they were forced to use aggressive and deceptive practices with customers in order to boost revenues.Cate Colombo, from Maine, said she signed up for a customer service job but was instead instructed to make insistent sales pitches aimed at getting MBNA customers deeper into debt.”I was hired to sell money,” she said on a conference call organized by Americans for Fairness in Lending, an advocacy group. “We had a goal of selling $25,000 an hour, $4 million per month. And I was one employee among hundreds, just at this one site.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:17 am
Here’s a clip from Tuesday’s San Jose Mercury News Editorial: Congress Must Reject Rushed Bailout Blunder:”No individual (Paulson) should have this much power, but especially not Paulson. Many believe his actions, or lack of action, contributed to this collapse. His loyalties are not to the public but to the industry he’d be lavishing taxpayer money on: He’s a former Goldman Sachs CEO; his brother worked for Lehman Brothers. By deciding whose bad loans to buy and how much over market to pay for them, Paulson could enrich his friends and, indirectly, himself. He presumbly would leave office with Bush, but he could hand out a lot of your money between now and January.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:20 am
We are still alive and fighting. There is still hope to defeat this deal, because if it’s approved, it means the taxpayers of America are bailing out Warren Buffett!It might be OK if it’s really as Bush said tonight, because he said “current prices” will be paid. Fine, hold him to that. Pay only current market price for the thing that is bought (not for something else, or for the “average” thing in an auction). The weasel word is intended to make us miss that I think, to do something like saying “we paid the current price for a Chevrolet car” when we got the cheapest one and paid the price of the mid-line model.No weaseling, fair current market pricing, strong oversight, enforcement and transparency, watch them like a hawk. OK maybe now we’re talking.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:25 am
A good rant and right on.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 2:27 am
The bailout is not only for GS. It’s for MS too. They must have a lot of over-rated stuff that may still carry a AAA rating, just the sort of stuff the deal proposes to buy.Hint: don’t buy it. Kill this deal and start over.
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 2:33 am
I tend to agree with Nr.2
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:35 am
ekk missing the bigger picturethey are securing US energy needs & other imperial agenda Via military power..they need the economy / ponzi scheme running so they can support the troopsthats all, moral hazard, inflation baaahhUS economy have been dead for a long timethe scary part is, China is taking advantange of this process /ponzi scheme by strenghtening their armee,securing resources, and what is scarier US know about thisIMHO when the time comes [when they are strong enough, politically, economy, military, signing pacts with other nations, (hey its happening now)] they will stop buying US debt papers.thats when all hell break loose.its not depressionits Thermo-nuclear destructionthe longer the US play the game, the stronger its competitors becomes (venuezvela,russia, brazil – hence the activation of an old navy fleet to “safeguard” the carribeans)]the promoted capitalist free market of the US is a failure..so what’s nextwhat will US do??? When will US act??iraq checked, iran??a missile ICBM interceptor in Poland, navy fleet in the black sea gives you some hints
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:43 am
looking at Roubini’s recommendations and what is going on at UN, we will end up getting the world finances under United Nations.I would be interested of relocating to some other planet but that does not seem possible:-(
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 2:44 am
Bush is a fool. I am sure he doesn’t even know or understand what he has been ordered to repeat.Unless, in his twisted encyclopedia of definitions, “current prices” stands for “current marked-to-model prices”.
GSM • September 25th, 2008 at 2:49 am
NR’s HOME plan is simply a mechanism designed to avoid what essentially is the real underlying issue. That is that Debts MUST be repaid in some form or another. You pay the debt down or you default. Hocus pocus and smoke and mirrors voodoo accounting with new forms of ponzi finance as he is advocating won’t wash.The US for decades has written IOU’s it could not afford that the rest of the world bought up. In recent years, a significant and rather stupid portion of the US population believed that personal debt was in fact a medium of currency, accumulating it to finance what essentially was a lifestyle they only thought they could afford- until NOW. Well, I say let the debtors pay up or fail, become roadkill and a clear lesson for everyone else. Those that have been wise and prudent , not living beyond their means will manage. Some people not directly contributing to this debt induced debacle may suffer- well let that happen too. All of those VOTERS will gather and ensure that this disaster does not happen again- something the HOME plan of NR’s does not address.No bailout for the Pig Men criminals in Wall St, No bail out for the corrupt and greedy Govt that allowed such pathetic oversight and No bailout for the sufferring the US seems destined to endure in order to save itself.Get the Fed back under Public oversight so it cannot enact unlawful and unconstitutional plans devoid of public will that only benefit a select elite of the moneyed inner circle.Instead of massive effort directed at avoiding debt payment- how about a mammoth national effort directed at paying back the debt and getting back some credibility?? You know, the old kind like the US enjoyed post WW2?
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 2:50 am
It is a politician’s primary goal to hold on to power. Having a big campaign war-chest is an important mean to that end. If the taxpayers cannot match or exceed the contributions given by financial institutions to elected politicians, these will normally vote in favor of their biggest contributors. If opposers or modifyers of the proposed bailout cannot conform a representative group (with an adequate name) and contribute more money to the election campaigns of the relevant politicians than the financial institutions will, then the financial institutions will carry the day.Your guess seems right. The timing might change.
AfA - Ponziophobe • September 25th, 2008 at 2:57 am
I am calling to stop the injustice.Lehman – my dear “Joseph” Lehman
– was thrown to the wolves, while Merrill, Morgan, and Goldman have been saved by Big Mama.Warren Buffet is being blamed for bringing his own double Jack to the poker table, a thing that he learned from Bill Gross.So, I am posting here to raise my voice and invite all – taxpayers – to make an end to all the suffering of these poor victims to financial WMDs. Please donate for this great cause/Otherwise, I also support euthanasia.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:04 am
Yes. As we wildly overuse antibacterial soaps, alcohol drugs infections just seem to be getting wortse -staph, c difficile etc
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 3:15 am
This post by GSM raises a fair point. “Neocon” over at calculatedrisk is saying a similar thing though less pleasantly. I suppose both are foreigners who are afraid the US will inflate out of some of the debt.I respect these comments. In my defense as an American, the producer countries knew what kind of debt its customer was running up. Did you buy CDS’s to protect the obvious credit risk? Well if not, then you bear that risk. And this creditor cannot pay.Not without generations of slavery. The debt is too big for us, the common people of America. We cannot pay it, and pay back our insolvent banks too. We probably cannot avoid recapitalizing those banks; we do not have the political power to do so, although we hate those banks. And so we come to you for help. We need help, we need to share our pain and spread it around so it is bearable.And if we are being asked to sacrifice so much, it should not be done this way, by a stampede in the middle of the night, by an attempt to slip something by on last weekend or this coming weekend. We deserve the chance for internal discussion.And the credit markets will just have to wait. We will do this right in our own way. We are the same people who saved so many of you in WW2. Now we need to keep some control of our own destiny, after having had our weaknesses exploited by those banks to bring us to the brink of destruction and real debt slavery.
Rob O • September 25th, 2008 at 3:18 am
NR’s point about debt forgiveness for the underlying consumer is required (as abhorrent as it is to someone like myself who has always lived below his means). However, he raises the point of the next bubble. Why, if banks are limited to 12x leverage (or whatever the ratio is) aren’t consumers held to the same standard. Should there not be a “clearing house” to see the outstanding debt/credit lines that individual consumers have so companies can make sure they are not extending credit to someone who is juggling 30 credit cards (ie family makes 2 x $60k = $120k but has $700k mortgage + 1 car loan of $28k + 1 student loan of $50k + 1 HELOC of $50k + credit card debt of $10k, etc). If not, then why wouldn’t I go and move my money offshore, overpay for a house now, max out all my credit cards now and wait for my personal bailout . I don’t know what the appropriate leverage ratio for an individual would be, but clearly that has to be part of the solution as well no ?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:42 am
Overnight Fed Funds rate data is steady the past three dayshttp://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm
CHRISTO • September 25th, 2008 at 3:43 am
All this is fine and hunky dory Mr Roubini, but the question is, where is the money coming from. The taxpayer is tapped out on credit and things are getting worse. So who is going to finance this, the Chinese? Will they not want those preferred shares in financial institutions themselves if they lend the money to Uncle Sam to effect all this? Your scheme is a roundabout way of saving the banks with their money ultimately and keeping the potential benefits for the US. Correct?Hmmm, and what about reducing that defence budget, which is a threat to them directly,as a condition to lending the money eh?And, since you are at it, how about restructuring Bretton Woods on some sort of commodity standard, just to make sure Uncle Sam does not decide to go haywire and continue with that cosy “seigneurage” racket and decides to print his way out of the debt. They do currently lend him at least 60 billion a month and with your current scheme, this is due to double, no?I think this is all in fantasy land. The Rubicon has been crossed.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:10 am
from the looks of it they might be making U.N. to that clearinghouse?Then moving money to an offshore account would not be a very useful thingy.
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 5:15 am
I fully agree with Martin Wolf’s analysis in the Financial Times and with a two-page analysis from the University of Chicago. Here they are.From Martin Wolf:The fundamental problem with the Paulson scheme, as proposed, is then that it is neither a necessary nor an efficient solution. It is not necessary, because the Federal Reserve is able to manage illiquidity through its many lender-of-last resort operations. It is not efficient, because it can only deal with insolvency by buying bad assets at far above their true value, thereby guaranteeing big losses for taxpayers and providing an open-ended bail-out to the most irresponsible investors.Furthermore, these assets are illiquid precisely because they are so hard to value. The government risks finding its coffers stuffed with huge amounts of overpriced junk even if it tries not to do so. Also objectionable, though more in design than in the fundamentals, were the unchecked powers for the Treasury. Such a fund should be operated professionally, under independent oversight. Finally, if the US government is to bail out incompetent investors it should surely also provide more help to the poor and often ill-informed borrowers.From the University of Chicago (Why Paulson is Wrong):http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/luigi.zingales/Why_Paulson_is_wrong.pdf
cheney • September 25th, 2008 at 5:16 am
Funny Job Growth, The last 8 years was the worse for job groth.http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/job-creation-po.html
Free Tibet • September 25th, 2008 at 5:55 am
Artichoke, I believe GSM is right. The US financial industry has pissed away our savings and as much of the savings of the rest of the world as it could get its hands on. It’s a little circumspect to blame the savers for not having done their due diligence. We have been conned. We all went for it.Whatever your opinion as to who is responsible, to borrow a further $700,000,000,000 only pushes that burden down the road. By definition it transfers it into the future. I don’t see how that works either. We consign the future to slavery. How does borrowing to “recapitalize” our banks today make us more productive and better able to amortize that debt in the future?
Wild Bill • September 25th, 2008 at 6:07 am
The size of the tumor has grown exponentially. It has outgrown its blood supply so it demands more in order to continue growing at the expense of the rest of the body. The doctors consult and debate whether it is better to cut out the tumor, let it die on its own or treat it with angiogenesis drugs to promote an increase in the tumor’s blood supply.Some doctors predict dire events if the tumor is excised and advocate letting it grow some more. Others are perfectly willing to let the tumor die on its own. Still others are willing to aggressively treat the tumor while attending to the symptoms the tumor is causing to the rest of the body. There are some doctors who advocate radical surgery even if it kills the patient, because they believe killing the tumor is more important than saving the patient. They believe that will set an example for other prospective tumors not to grow so aggressively.After consultation, they appealed to the head surgeon who was famous for his sugical tecniques used on the Texas Rangers, to go on television and appeal to the tax payers, advocating giving the doctors in charge free rein to do what’s best for all.Meanwhile, Warren Buffett took out a life insurance policy on the patient, making himself the beneficiary and lobbyists from The Association of Independent Morticians showered congress with more money since the value of the dollar got cheaper..
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:13 am
TED Spread STILL over 300 bps, unprecedented…
GSM • September 25th, 2008 at 6:21 am
Allow me to also say that I admire immensely the US, her Constitution and the mighty US people who shaped the free world post WW2.Given the horrendous debts of the US and her populace and its critical position as issuer of the world’s reserve currency- the US will not survive this debacle without global support.Presently the US and US asstes are increasingly seen as a huge financial tar pit.But one simple truth must not be overlooked in this horrific mess the US has managed to get itself into.If global belief is that the US is facing up to its responsibilities and in doing so, enacting the tough commonsense decisions needed to safeguard it’s financial future (despite the hardships endured), confidence in the US WILL return. It is at that point a meaningful turnaround in US fortunes will be achieved.It requires the will and honesty of a people.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:34 am
316 and still rising
Jason B • September 25th, 2008 at 7:02 am
China banks told to halt lending to US banks-SCMPWed Sep 24, 2008 9:52pm EDTBEIJING, Sept 25 (Reuters) – Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.The Hong Kong newspaper cited unidentified industry sources as saying the instruction from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) applied to interbank lending of all currencies to U.S. banks but not to banks from other countries.”The decree appears to be Beijing’s first attempt to erect defences against the deepening U.S. financial meltdown after the mainland’s major lenders reported billions of U.S. dollars in exposure to the credit crisis,” the SCMP said.A spokesman for the CBRC had no immediate comment. (Reporting by Alan Wheatley and Langi Chiang; editing by Ken Wills)
Man • September 25th, 2008 at 7:17 am
Ha, Ha, Ha…. !!!!. China has already cut her hands and given them to US. Stopping small credit lines for Banks wont help (as compared to what China has invested in Treasuries and in failed entities). Hope that developing countries will wake up and reassess AAA rating for US. Likely fallout will be fall of Bretton II and Gold going through roof.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:29 am
326…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:48 am
nothing seems to work. All “isms” had their problems.In fact the isms all seem to fail due to greed (either a desire for more power or desire for money) and dishonesty.(incidentally greed for more sex has not caused the collapse of any civilizations…or maybe I am wrong)
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:51 am
336…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:52 am
in the 1987 crash, it was only around 220
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Professor Roubini has a long history of predicting recession and panic – his insight is remarkable for its depth of understanding of the mechanisms and causes for the unwinding of credit. Unfortunately for his analysis, but fortunately for us – the end game of his predictions get mired in forced justifications of his social theories. The bottom is coming – sooner rather than later. It will take nothing like 10 Trillion in balance sheet to re-intermediate the “shadow” banking system – that is an estimate based on notional value, not risks. Smart though he is, the good Professor doesn’t know any more than I do who is long and short what – and without real contraction of value, there is no pain. Clearly the bursting of the US leverage bubble results in contracting credit – but it will not contract to 0 – an end point this website is increasingly painting as a fait accompli. I suggest that the ultimate loss profile and end state will be tied to a fraction of the housing market that corresponds to real income gains made from the end of the last housing downturn – a point which is no more than 5-8% below the current Case Shiller composite index.Lord of the Flies should be required reading for everyone on this website here this weekend. We must remember not to slaughter the messenger or to focus on red meat at the expense of our rescue.
P1AQL. • September 25th, 2008 at 8:04 am
When you remove selective pressure on the ability to match liquid investor needs with illquid investment needs, the organism weakens.P1AQL.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:15 am
we are in unknown territory now – a massive de-leveraging process – 10x and 20x at least…
steve brassey • September 25th, 2008 at 8:17 am
greenspan, bernanke, paulson, cox, bush, cheney, and now the 2 weakest candidates since carter and ford. i guess we are getting what we deserve.
Pecos Banker • September 25th, 2008 at 8:23 am
May I suggest that we have a nation-wide public referendum on the bailout? It’s time toTAKE BACK AMERICA!
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:27 am
crgordon • September 25th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Costa Rica has tied its currency to the dollar – resulting in undo inflation. A disconnect will likely be the outcome dampening exports and reducing demand for tourist products. However, people here are smart and have mostly avoided annoying the 800 pound gorilla to the north. Any cozying up to the left (shudder, horrors, run for the exits) is someone else’s fear – not mine. Shifting alliances to incorporate partnership with, not subjugation by, China is a welcome relief to the history of being a Banana Republic operated solely in the interests of a US company.Costa Rica is financially stressed but it’s “leftish” sentiments of no army and universal health coverage and education works for me. And apparently for other gringos escaping from the irrationality of life in the US.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:29 am
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE48O3QS20080925?sp=trueHold-to-Maturity is the new Mark-to-Myth: James SaftThu Sep 25, 2008 8:30am EDTPost Your Comments | All CommentsEmail | Print |Share| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0)[-] Text [+]Featured Broker sponsored linkMoney CenterTrading will never be the same.– James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –By James SaftLONDON (Reuters) – Paulson and Bernanke’s ‘Hold-to-Maturity’ plan is really just the new ‘Mark-to-Myth’, and even its heroic proportions are not likely to paper over solvency problems in the banking system.The Federal Reserve Chairman told lawmakers the plan to spend $700 billion to buy up bad assets would allow banks to avoid unloading loans at fire sale prices.”Auctions and other mechanisms could be devised that will give the market good information on what the hold-to-maturity price is for a large class of mortgage-related assets,” Ben Bernanke said, trying to persuade a skeptical Congress that the plan he has been pushing along with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will give value for taxpayers’ money.Banks are forced to mark their assets to market, a process that has become increasingly painful and likely to lead to bank failures as a shortage of investors and the swiftly declining performance of the underlying collateral have driven prices lower.As many securities are so complex that they seldom trade, and given that few want to buy them now anyway, banks sometimes must mark the assets according to modeled prices, a process sometimes referred to as ‘marking-to-myth’ by doubters.”Now what the hell is a ‘held-to-maturity’ price, and how in the world can an auction or ‘other mechanism’ be devised that gives the market a good idea of ‘hold-to-maturity’ prices — since there is no such thing?” economist Thomas Lawler, a former Fannie Mae portfolio manager and founder of Virginia-based Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting, wrote in a note to clients.”Of course, everyone knew what he meant: ‘held-to-maturity’ means ‘above market.’”The hope, presumably, is that the subsidy given by buying up debt for more than it will fetch on the open market will be enough to prop banks and attract new investors.If it is a subsidy, what not call it one?And though $700 billion is a lot of money, it is not enough to wipe the slate clean and leave banks with workable balance sheets; the plan only works if that $700 billion, which equates to far less in terms of capital relief, is leveraged by attracting new money from outsiders now sitting on the sidelines.But I find it hard to credit that the sovereign wealth funds of the world, having already been burned though their disastrous investments in banking last year and this, will feel that a price arrived at through what promises to be an opaque process gives them the confidence to buy in now.”It is hubris to say they are going to set the prices and everyone will just mark to market their assets accordingly,” said Tim Brunne, a credit strategist at Unicredit in Munich.GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUTOne possibility being discussed is a reverse auction, where banks will compete to sell bonds to the government. Given that private label securities are often unique, that may be a very difficult process to do in a competitive and transparent way. And seeing as how the purpose of the exercise is in part establishing a mark for banks to use on their portfolios, there is scope for collusion.If banks do compete and bid down the prices of debt instruments the authorities may be faced with another round of failures, as ailing banks are forced to use new marks and find their capital wanting in the new light.Alternatively, the government, which has bottomless pockets and no liquidity risk, may simply arrive at a price based on what it, or its advisors — and one wonders who they could be and if they saw this whole disaster coming — think is a fair bet on what repayment flows will be.There is also the issue of protecting the taxpayers, who may justifiably argue that they should share in the benefit of any subsidy offered to the industry in return for footing the bill.But taking equity stakes in banks in exchange for below market funding or asset sales probably would, as it did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, choke off any hope of new equity infusions from actual investors seeking profits.It’s easy to understand why the United States is placing a low value on moral hazard and is considering an apparently indiscriminate reward for those who took too much risk.The stakes are very high, and a disorderly deleveraging will be worse than an orderly one, even if the orderly one isn’t perfect.The debate about what whether or not the U.S. will need a massive intervention of public capital into its banking system and wider economy is over. The crisis requires a huge outlay of public funds, both to clean up after the many banks that will fail and to soften the blow to homeowners and consumers.Banking is a confidence game, even if done soberly and responsibly. But this plan, because it fails to meet the issue of insolvent and failing institutions head on, is not likely to work.– At the time of publication James Saft did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund –(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:36 am
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2448412920080925UPDATE 1-US lawmakers set to draft final bailout bill:sourceWed Sep 24, 2008 9:24pm EDTEmail | Print |Share| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0)[-] Text [+]Featured Broker sponsored linkMoney Center$0 stock trades. 10 free per month.(Adds details)WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) – U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans plan to meet on Thursday to draft a final bipartisan Wall Street bailout bill, a Democratic source said on Wednesday night.”Not too many unresolved issues remain,” the source said.The source spoke after meetings earlier in the day by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of the House of Representatives and Senate.[b]House and Senate Democrats, along with some Republican committee members, intend “to sit down at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) tomorrow to draft a final bipartisan bill to be passed and signed into law,” the Democratic source said.[/b]Earlier on Wednesday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd emerged from a meeting with Paulson and other Democratic senators saying there was no deal yet on a financial bailout bill, but he expressed optimism one could come soon.”We’re not there yet,” Dodd told reporters, adding there was a “good possibility we’ll get there in a day or so.”Dodd refused to discuss details of the negotiations, but said lawmakers would work deliberatively on a bill he said could have an impact for “decades.” (Reporting by Richard Cowan and Thomas Ferraro; Editing by Peter Cooney)© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:36 am
U.S. losing financial superpower status: Steinbrueckhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-lose-financial-superpower-status/story.aspx?guid={AAD822C1-BC7E-4178-9BFE-F9A8C897D209}
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Germany’s finance minister on Thursday laid the blame for the global banking crisis on the Anglo-American free-market model’s quest for ever-higher near-term profits, predicting the United States would soon lose its role as the world’s dominant financial power.”The U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system, not abruptly but it will erode,” Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told the lower house of Germany’s parliament in Berlin, according to published reports. “The global financial system will become more multi-polar.”Steinbrueck criticized the United States for failing to adequately regulate investment banks and said free-market policies embraced by the United States and Great Britain that emphasized a short-term “insane drive for higher and higher profits” were partly to blame for the crisis.”Wall Street will never be what it was,” he said.The finance minister said he would push for a global ban on speculative short selling and would use next month’s meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers in Washington to press for new rules that would prevent banks from fully securitizing loans and selling them to third parties.Steinbrueck said U.S. authorities were late in undertaking rescue efforts, but said he welcomed the decision to attempt to bail out only organizations whose collapse would threaten the world financial system.He repeated that he felt there was no need for Germany or Europe to echo the U.S. Treasury’s proposal to spend around $700 billion to buy up toxic assets from distressed banks’ balance sheets, saying the financial crisis is largely an “American problem.” The minister warned, however, that the fallout from the crisis would make for lower growth in the near future and eventually impact the labor market.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:36 am
U.S. losing financial superpower status: Steinbrueckhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-lose-financial-superpower-status/story.aspx?guid={AAD822C1-BC7E-4178-9BFE-F9A8C897D209}
LONDON (MarketWatch) — Germany’s finance minister on Thursday laid the blame for the global banking crisis on the Anglo-American free-market model’s quest for ever-higher near-term profits, predicting the United States would soon lose its role as the world’s dominant financial power.”The U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system, not abruptly but it will erode,” Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told the lower house of Germany’s parliament in Berlin, according to published reports. “The global financial system will become more multi-polar.”Steinbrueck criticized the United States for failing to adequately regulate investment banks and said free-market policies embraced by the United States and Great Britain that emphasized a short-term “insane drive for higher and higher profits” were partly to blame for the crisis.”Wall Street will never be what it was,” he said.The finance minister said he would push for a global ban on speculative short selling and would use next month’s meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers in Washington to press for new rules that would prevent banks from fully securitizing loans and selling them to third parties.Steinbrueck said U.S. authorities were late in undertaking rescue efforts, but said he welcomed the decision to attempt to bail out only organizations whose collapse would threaten the world financial system.He repeated that he felt there was no need for Germany or Europe to echo the U.S. Treasury’s proposal to spend around $700 billion to buy up toxic assets from distressed banks’ balance sheets, saying the financial crisis is largely an “American problem.” The minister warned, however, that the fallout from the crisis would make for lower growth in the near future and eventually impact the labor market.
Hugo Penteado • September 25th, 2008 at 8:37 am
The most funny thing is that no economist realized that this crisis is linked to a false theory that demands eternal growth in a finite planet, claiming that human needs are infinite. To justify world devastation, job creation and human well being would be damaged without growth. The economic system is an animal without mouth and stomack (from where the material come is not a problem) and without intestine (to where the residuals go is not a problem). That animal is not in contact with the environment that economists consider inexhaustible. Infinite growth is all we need, always and forever. This is very good for companies to save billions of dollars while they promote job extinction along with life extinction and a huge wealth concentration. Thanks dear economists!The crisis of the crisis is the rude awakening about the real possibilities about growth, in planetary and physical ways. In 1900 US had 1.000.000 houses, in 2000 190.000.000. Keeping the same growth, in 2100 US will have 36.100.000.000 houses… The territory will have always the same size. One day someone will receive a Nobel prize to remember us that the country territories is finite.How the hell this new houses will be built if there is no territory for them anymore? Oh, I forgot: we destroy to build. Simple as that, it was Keynes that showed this formula. Good, thanks again economists. Let us start to destroy brand new houses to build new ones. Since when houses are being built for people? They are being built for companies to profit. Urban sprawl that polluted 50% of US water resources is not a problem, keep in mind that the economic system is an animal without mouth, stomach and intestine… Thanks economists.Let us discuss now the rescue plan to make new buildings, new consumers, new flows in a infinite Earth.Hugo Penteado
crgordon • September 25th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Unfortunately the good doctors are waiting for the HMO to approve treatment for the procedure as it is not covered by the policy. Payment would gut the financial capacity of the HMO and would be recovered by enormous increases in premiums to all those patients who are healthy in order for the one patient to remain on its deathbed waiting for the inevitable. There are many other patients with tumors waiting for uncovered treatment. There will be point when the tumor overtakes the patient – not an “if” question but a “when” question. My doctor friends advise to let the patient die with dignity. The operative term is “die”.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:45 am
The US taxpayers didn’t decide the Fed policies that fed this beast. We didn’t invent CDOs. In fact the so-called American financial institutions are in many cases purely international. For example Morgan Stanley has NY headquarters but no preference for the US as a matter of policy or hiring (quite the opposite as regards hiring, in fact.)As is clear from the “legislative process” now underway, we even have to work very hard to influence our representatives who write laws.The US went to the G7 for help, and Germany said “no, it’s an American problem.” I suppose we might remember that the next time Germany asks for help. I guess the G7 is now dead; there is no reason for the US to stay involved.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Let’s discuss that after we discuss how to avoid being chained to decades of slavery by our own government, the urgent issue right now.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:47 am
I’ve always thought that China was funding our massive debt as a way of eventually getting Taiwan…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:52 am
From last post: “”Auctions and other mechanisms could be devised that will give the market good information on what the hold-to-maturity price is for a large class of mortgage-related assets,” Ben Bernanke said”and from news this morning …Yahoo News: “Bailout plan’s big mysteryValuing the securities that the Treasury aims to buy with $700 billion will be difficult …”My Comments:These comments from Bernanke and the media are a load of rubbish. Or as London Banker might say … it’s complete poppycock. Maybe he would use stronger language.First, the idea that the assets in the Wall St banks are illiquid is mostly nonsense. The assets can be sold this morning – provided they are priced at competitive prices on the street. The problem for the banks is that hedge funds would only offer somewhere in the region of 10-30 cents on the dollar for these mortgage-based securities. That’s not what the banks want to sell them for.I am also extremely skeptical that the asets cannot be priced. Why not? They were priced when they were originally bought by the banks, or when similar securities exchnaged hands. At that time there were computer models that valued the assets. So why don’t the banks want to value these assets now? Well because foreclosure rates and deliquency rates are skyrocketing in the USA. Try plugging that into a computer and see what kind of valuation you get. Imagine an MBS package that is sensitive to foreclosure rates in Califronia, and guess what would happen to the predicted price if you estimated that the foreclosure rate would double in the next 6 months? The banks don’t want to hear that answer.These banks are like used car salesmen. No more … no less. They need to unload junk, and they don’t want to tell anyone what it’s really worth. What they need is a patsy. Someone stupid enough to pay a ridiculous price for the assets. That patsy is you and me … the US taxpayers.Paulson’s plan says that the Treasury will pay the low-bid price on these securtities. Yeah, right. In what kind of fair auction??? You’re telling me that they are going to allow a hedge fund to just come in and low-ball the auction bid. You’ve gotta’ be joking. It will never happen. This toxic waste and radioactive slime will get sold at prices significantly higher than its really worth. Does anyone honestly think that bidders in the system don’t know who’s running the whole show. How will they ever get liquidity again, if they cross paths with the powers that are running the system?PeteCA
P1AQL • September 25th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Prof. Roubini wrote:
Eighth, you need an HOLC-like program for debt reduction of the household sector. Households in the US have too much debt (subprime, near prime, prime mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards, auto loans and student loans) while their assets (values of their homes and stocks) are plunging leading to a sharp fall in their net worth.
Prof. Roubini, in addition to size of debt, please could you throw light on required coverage ratios. The high banker salaries were from a small percentage of population but a significant source of NYC revenue. Plus the bankers were putting in 18 hour days. Now that revenue will have to come from less efficient longer hours of the general populace. Since the unemployment rate is increasing, shouldn’t the govt. have to generate more employment through infrastructure building (investments to compensate loss of coverage), etc?I will appreciate any comments in this regard. That’s why I proposed that the ARMs be linked to some govt. index for a while to increase coverage ratios.Best,P1AQL.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:04 am
I could not agree more
MOTHER OF GODDAMITPEOPLE • September 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am
“The richest 5% in every nation, rich and poor, North and South, East and West, now own between 70% and 95% of their own countries.”Land monopoly is the very back bone of rule by the rich. Land monopoly exists because the human species is in love with the idea of having other-earned wealth, and no one will even TALK about taking out of the pool of wealth only what you put in being the rule.Insane Ownership of this PLANETWinston Churchill: “Land Monopoly is not the only monopoly, but it is by far the greatest of monopolies – it is perpetual monopoly, and it is the mother of all other forms of monopoly.”“Archimedes” by Mark Twain“It is evident that he was an over-rated man. He was in the habit of making a lot of fuss about his screws and levers, but his knowledge of mechanics was in reality of a very limited character. I have never set up for a genius myself, but I know of a mechanical force more powerful than anything the vaunting engineer of Syracuse ever dreamed of. It is the force of land monopoly; it is a screw and lever all in one; it will screw the last penny out of a man’s pocket, and bend everything on earth to its own despotic will.Give me the private ownership of all the land, and will I move the earth? No; but I will do more. I will undertake to make slaves of all the human beings on the face of it. Not chattel slaves exactly, but slaves nevertheless. What an idiot I would be to make chattel slaves of them. I would have to find them salts and senna when they were sick, and whip them to work when they were lazy.No, it is not good enough. Under the system I propose the fools would imagine they were all free. I would get a maximum of results, and have no responsibility whatever. They would cultivate the soil; they would dive into the bowels of the earth for its hidden treasures; they would build cities and construct railways and telegraphs; their ships would navigate the ocean; they would work and work, and invent and contrive; their warehouses would be full, their markets glutted, and:The beauty of the whole concern would beThat everything they made would belong to me.It would be this way, you see: As I owned all the land, they would of course, have to pay me rent. They could not reasonably expect me to allow them the use of the land for nothing. I am not a hard man, and in fixing the rent I would be very liberal with them. I would allow them, in fact, to fix it themselves. What could be fairer? Here is a piece of land, let us say, it might be a farm, it might be a building site, or it might be something else – if there was only one man who wanted it, of course he would not offer me much, but if the land be really worth anything such a circumstance is not likely to happen.On the contrary, there would be a number who would want it, and they would go on bidding and bidding one against the other, in order to get it. I should accept the highest offer – what could be fairer? Every increase of population, extension of trade, every advance in the arts and sciences would, as we all know, increase the value of land, and the competition that would naturally arise would continue to force rents upward, so much so, that in many cases the tenants would have little or nothing left for themselves.In this case a number of those who were hard pushed would seek to borrow, and as for those who were not so hard pushed, they would, as a matter of course, get the idea into their heads that if they only had more capital they could extend their operations, and thereby make their business more profitable. Here I am again. The very man they stand in need of; a regular benefactor of my species, and always ready to oblige them. With such an enormous rent-roll I could furnish them with funds up to the full extent of the available security; they would not expect me to do more, and in the matter of interest I would be equally generous.I would allow them to fix the rate of it themselves in precisely the same manner as they had fixed the rent. I should then have them by the wool, and if they failed in their payments it would be the easiest thing in the world to sell them out. They might bewail their lot, but business is business. They should have worked harder and been more provident. Whatever inconvenience they might suffer, it would be their concern, and not mine.What a glorious time I would have of it! Rent and interest, interest and rent, and no limit to either, excepting the ability of the workers to pay. Rents would go up and up, and they would continue to pledge and mortgage, and as they went bung, bung, one after another, it would be the finest sport ever seen. thus, from the simple leverage of land monopoly, not only the great globe itself, but everything on the face of it would eventually belong to me. I would be king and lord of all, and the rest of mankind would be my most willing slaves.It hardly needs to be said that it would not be consistent with my dignity to associate with the common rank and file of humanity; it would not be politic to say so, but, as a matter of fact, I not only hate work but I hate those who do work, and I would not have their stinking carcasses near me at any price. High above the contemptible herd I would sit enthroned amid a circle of devoted worshippers. I would choose for myself companions after my own heart. I would deck them with ribbons and gewgaws to tickle their vanity; they would esteem it an honour to kiss my glove, and would pay homage to the very chair that I sat upon; brave men would die for me, parsons would pray for me, and bright-eyed beauty would pander to my pleasures.For the proper management of public affairs I would have a parliament, and for the preservation of law and order there would be soldiers and policemen, all sworn to serve me faithfully; their pay would not be much, but their high sense of duty would be a sufficient guarantee that they would fulfil the terms of the contract.Outside the charmed circle of my society would be others eagerly pressing forward in the hope of sharing my favours; outside of these would be others again who would be forever seeking to wriggle themselves into the ranks of those in front of them, and so on, outward and downward, until we reach the deep ranks of the workers forever toiling and forever struggling merely to live, and with the hell of poverty forever threatening to engulf them. The hell of poverty, that outer realm of darkness where there is weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth – the social Gehenna, where the worm dieth not, and the fire is not quenched – here is a whip more effective by far than the keenest lash of the chattel slave owner, urging them on by day, haunting their dreams by night, draining without stint the life blood from their veins, and pursuing them with relentless constancy to their graves.In the buoyancy of youth many would start full of hope and with high expectations; but, as they journeyed along, disappointment would follow disappointment, hope would gradually give place to despair, the promised cup of joy would be turned to bitterness, and the holiest affection would become a poisoned arrow quivering in the heart!What a beautiful arrangement – ambition urging in front, want and the fear of want bringing up the rear! In the conflicting interests that would be involved, in the throat-cutting competition that would prevail, in the bitterness that would be engendered between man and man, husband and wife, father and son, I should, of course, have no part. There would be lying and cheating, harsh treatment by masters, dishonesty of servants, strikes and lockouts, assaults and intimidation, family feuds and interminable broils; but they would not concern Me. In the serene atmosphere of my earthly paradise I would be safe from all evil. I would feast on the daintiest of dishes, and sip wines of the choicest
vintage; my gardens would have the most magnificent terraces and the finest walks. I would roam mid the umbrageous foliage of the trees, the blooming flowers, the warbling of birds, the jetting of fountains, and the splashing of pellucid waters. My palace would have its walls of alabaster and domes of crystal, there would be furniture of the most exquisite workmanship, carpets and hangings of the richest fabrics and finest textures, carvings and paintings that were miracles of art, vessels of gold and silver, gems of the purest ray glittering in their settings, the voluptuous strains of the sweetest music, the perfume of roses, the softest of couches, a horde of titled lackeys to come and go at my bidding, and a perfect galaxy of beauty to stimulate desire, and administer to my enjoyment. Thus would I pass the happy hours away, while throughout the world it would be a hallmark of respectability to extol my virtues, and anthems would be everywhere sung in praise.Archimedes never dreamt of anything like that. Yet, with the earth for my fulcrum and its private ownership for my lever, it is all possible. If it should be said that the people would eventually detect the fraud, and with swift vengeance hurl me and all my courtly parasites to perdition, I answer, “Nothing of the kind, the people are as good as gold, and would stand it like bricks – and I appeal to the facts of today to bear me witness.” – Mark Twain“The patience of the oppressed has always been the most inexplicable, as well as probably the most important, fact in all history.” Author Amos Elon from The Pity of it All
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 9:18 am
http://politicalpartytime.org/blog/2008/09/24/sushi-with-freddie-mac-lobbyists-anyone/Partytime • POSTED – 09.24.08 BY nancySushi with Freddie Mac lobbyists, anyone?If you haven’t been under a rock lately, you know that the Bush Administration is proposing a $700 billion bailout for Wall Street. What you might not know is that there have been 258 parties this year alone for members of the House Financial Services Committee-the very folks who are making crucial decisions about this legislation-a number of them hosted by lobbyists for the finance, insurance, and real estate industries.For example, last week, on September 16, lobbyists were invited to a “financial services” luncheon for Rep. Dean Heller at the Capitol Hill Club. The cost for entry was $500 for individuals, $1,000 for PACs. Heller has collected $190,252 from the financial sector for his congressional elections out of a total of $1,242,583, or 15.3 percent.Then there was the invitation from the Real Estate Roundtable PAC on September 14 for folks to join Rep. Gregory Meeks to watch the New Orleans Saints play the Washington Redskins play at FedEx Field. The cost: $1,000. Meeks has taken $1,015,432 from the financial sector over his congressional career, 27.8 percent of his fundraising total-$3,657,984.Back in late July, a list of lobbyists invited others to a beer tasting for Rep. Tom Feeney. These included Maura Solomon, a lobbyist for Citigroup Management Corp. The cost was $250 for a host, $100 to attend, and $1,000 for a PAC. Feeney has taken $1,260,480 from the financial sector in his elections for Congress, 22.1 percent of his total of $5,705,257.Also in July, lobbyists Greg Mesack and Doyle Barlett threw a sushi reception for Rep. Kenny Marchant. The lobbyists’ firm, the Eris Group, represents a number of banks, as well as Freddie Mac, Morgan Stanley and the Mortgage Bankers Association. Attendees were asked to pay $2,000 for a host, $1,000 for a PAC, and $500 per individual. Marchant has taken $449,813 from the finance, insurance, and real estate industries for his congressional elections, 23.4 percent of his fundraising total of $1,921,414, or 23.4 percent.And also July there was a “summer happy hour” for Rep. Michael Capuano on July 24. The party was hosted by REIT (National Association of Real Estate InvestmentTrusts) PAC and InsurPAC, the PAC for the Independent Insurance Agents of America. Lobbyist hosts included Langston Emerson, who lobbies for the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts; Tom Koonce, a lobbyist for the Independent Insurance Agents of America. The suggested contribution was $1,000. Capuano has collected $813,176 from the financial sector over the course of his congressional career, or 18.5 percent of his total fundraising of $4,402,712, or 18.5 percent.These are only the parties we know about-the ones we’ve managed to collect from sources. There likely were more. Plus, not all the parties have details on the invitations about who is hosting them, so it’s not easy to make the connections with financial lobbyists. That said, there are also likely other examples in our database. You are welcome to do some digging yourself-just please tell us what you find!
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Here came the PPT into gold this AM, notice the straight down curvature in a period of about 15 minutes, dropping over 20 an ounce. Oh,,..I forgot, the 700 Billion bailout is actually dollar positive move and not inflationary after all, what was I thinking,..
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
“We will be told that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have finally gotten it right. The scope and size of the proposed program will arrest the decline in home prices, restore stability to the financial markets, enable banks to get back to the business of lending, and restore the confidence of the American consumer.While the program certainly has each of these points as a goal, the amount of time to achieve each goal is unknowable, but an important factor. Moses was told he would lead the Jews to the Promised Land. He didn’t know it would take 40 years. And, in all due respect to Bernanke and Paulsen, Moses was working with God. They are working with Congress.”-Jim Welsh, Welsh Money Management
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:51 am
So lets see…*Jobless claims soar to almost 500M, a 7 year high*Durable goods orders PLUNGE*GE warns, cuts estimates SUBSTANTIALLY*30 year mtg rates leap 31 bps points even with the “bailout” looming*TED spread now surpassing 1987 by a wide margin even thought “bailout” looming*Employer health care cost grow another 5% on average in 2008, to impact year end earnings*Largest bailout in hostory to collapse US Pesoand yet, stocks are up 2% today…go figure.
villager • September 25th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Re “… the next time Germany asks for help”, my interpretation is that when Germany asked/advised America on the need for financial regulation and their stringent application, the US responded with the enthusiasm and zealotry that is typical of the current US Administration. This Administration has not practiced “treatment in kind”. Americans are lucky that they receive a “polite” response.
Mother of God in history • September 25th, 2008 at 9:54 am
“How to avoid” it, you want to discuss right now? How to avoid being chained to decades of slavery, is what you want to discuss right now? As in it MIGHT come in the future? Is that what you mean, Precious Petal???????????You wanna know what astonishes the Mother of God?It’s that the size of the rock we are all living under hasn’t crushed us to death already.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:56 am
From Bespoke:Nearly 20% of the S&P 500 Now Covered by No Short ListWhile the SEC’s no short list was meant to protect financial stocks from excessive short selling, the current ban covers stocks comprising nearly 20% of the S&P 500′s market capitalization, even though the Financial sector only makes up 15% of the index. As shown below, there are a handful of S&P 500 companies in the Financial sector (mostly REITs) that are not covered by the short sale rule. But there are also a number of non-Financial sector stocks that managed to lobby themselves onto the no short list, most notably GE and IBM. Why IBM, which is just slightly more than 10% off its 52-week high, felt the need to get on the list is up for debate. Our guess is they probably figured that if certain stocks can get special treatment, in the interest of their shareholders, why not them?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:00 am
incompetent investors? did he mean criminal investors? Shouldn’t his last sentence read,”Finally, if the US taxpayer is to bail out criminal investors he should surely also provide more help to the poor and often ill-informed borrowers, primarily the immigrant Mexican homeowners.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:01 am
FDIC will need $150 Billion as well…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:04 am
THE REAL CRISIS…The world is about to run out of the Internet addresses that allow computers to identify each other and communicate, the man who co-developed the system has told The Times.Vint Cerf, often called the “father of the Internet” and one of the world’s leading computer-networking scientists, said that businesses and consumers needed to act now to switch to the next generation of Internet addresses.Unless preparations were made now, he said, some computers might not be able to go online and the connectivity of the Internet might be damaged.Cerf said that Internet service providers in particular needed to prepare, and that time was running out for a smooth transition.Every computer and online device is assigned a unique Internet Protocol address — Windows users can look up theirs by opening a command-prompt window and typing “ipconfig” — but the pool of unallocated numbers is about to dry up.”This is like the Internet running out of telephone numbers and with no new numbers, you can’t have more subscribers,” he said.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:06 am
the short sell ban is a farce – all you have to do is to sell call options and buy put options and you get the same effect…they would need to ban the entire options market to make it effective…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:07 am
I wish I, as an American taxpayer, had a way to “erect defences against the deepening U.S. financial meltdown after…reported billions of U.S. dollars in exposure to the credit crisis.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:12 am
What is the TED spread? Thanks.
Mom • September 25th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Watch a debate between these candidates’ economic advisory teams?And here I was thinking we had already reached the zenith of humanity’s masochism.Never mind.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Artichoke: Thnaks for posting this. It’s much as we suspected. The American people are wondering how this crisis could materialize so fast. Well it’s good to know that our trusted Congressmen on the banking and finance committees are hard at work attemding all these receptions, beer-tasting parties, and luncheons.PeteCA
One-Eyed Fiona • September 25th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Gross already whining for another $500 billion AFTER the $700 billion…http://www.cnbc.com/id/26885559So PeteCA was right when he wrote “why do you think the big Wall St banks have been dumping huge sums of money into the election campaigns of all the senators and congressmen on the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee? C’mon now. When the chips are down – Wall St is going to collect on that tab. In a big way. It wasn’t done for nothing.”By going along with the bailout (actually “bailouts” since if we let this one through, the others will follow much more easily) we just get more of the ‘boomer behavior’ which got us to this point, that is, not being willing to accept responsibilities of our decisions. And GSM is right to keep hammering us about the main point: Confidence in the US will return only when there is something really there to be confident in, and the only way to restore credit is to stop this “massive effort directed at avoiding debt payment”.So IMO everyone who called & wrote their congressmen/women earlier this week needs to DO IT AGAIN since we know that everything so far has been just a “phase” in the already done deal. Dodd & Paulson are master politicians and knew the complete script of the drama this week. They were probably rehearsing this theater piece weeks ago: Dodd would wear the White Hat and Paulson the Black Hat (does anyone notice the similarity of him to those nazis whose faces melted in “Raiders of the Lost Ark”?). You’ve been allowed to “hiss” the villain and cheer the hero. Or in the foam-rubber words of modern management: you’ve had your “input” and they’ve been “responsive”. (I loved one economist’s depiction (on an NPR show this morning) of Paulson as like a “crack addict” coming in for a fix.)Cheers,One-Eyed Fiona
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 10:27 am
My pleasure, just happy I stumbled across it.My reaction was: a freakin’ beer tasting!? We are being sold out for a beer tasting? They must not vote for this until they are bribed much better, which should take at least three weeks, or else I will not respect them. No deal for the toxic debt, for at least three weeks!
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 10:30 am
No I think you have it backwards. It is dollar positive:1. They will bail out the banks. This cannot be avoided, damn it.2. So who pays? If the taxpayer pays all, then we can have a strong dollar. This is the Paulson / government plan. It will crush the American people, in my opinion.3. Or if Bernanke inflates, everyone pays a bit, the Americans and the foreign dollar creditors. Given point 1., this is the better way to go. But Bernanke’s policy for the past year has been to make sure debtors never get a single break.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Iowa could meet its own needs for energy and become an energy exporter cuz it’s that windy there. (I admit to not knowing what percentage of that wind might be generated by all of Iowa’s politicians. They’ve sold the public the sinister lie that we can get rich and not destroy the planet too boot by growing crops for gas instead of for food)Lotsa migratory birds and birdpaths, though.science study: is there a way to warn off most of the birds?
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Interactive Brokers has done something like this. You cannot make an option trade that gives you a net short notional position, or anything close to it, in the un-shortable stocks.
Mark • September 25th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Hold-to-Maturity is the new Mark-to-MythHold-till-it-rots is more like it…
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 10:39 am
We need a commission that determines pricing, in line with Bush’s promise last night of “current prices”. The methodology must be transparent and approved separately, and there must be independent oversight with public members and stiff penalties for fraud. We need enforcement here.I think this is where they will try to weasel on us, to cheat on the “current pricing”. We need just as much as one of those scared counterparties would do, in buying this stuff. We need to pay the “current price”.Thanks Pres. Bush. I’m going to hold you and the Congress to your promise.
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Cheers indeed !Well said … and further to your point, the populous should view these continued shenanigans on the part of this entire Congress as their devoted campaign before our eyes. Now they will go on their break, and hopefully, not return to another term in office.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 10:41 am
“THE MOTTO IS DEAL TO STEAL ANOTHER DAY!”word, said the sound of the hammer hitting the nail on the headwe’re not watching the News unfold, we’re watching the Olds.
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 10:49 am
The people who will pay for this still suck their thumbs and are currently being tucked into their beds at 7pm by their parents.And their kids.And theirs.Frank Zappa said it; If our children knew what we are really doing to them, they’d rise up and murder us in our sleep.
Mark • September 25th, 2008 at 10:53 am
I think that the finaincials over-inflated, exaggerated our savings. I don’t think that they ever really existed. Well, that is, they existed on PAPER, but that was never to be for very long. Think of it in the context of the Clinton years- a big bubble that would never hold.It’s been the big American Illusion. As long as everyone was asleep the Dream was on… Now that the sedatives have worn off the Dream can no longer be maintained and the Illusion is becoming clear for what it really was, an illusion!
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Dear Professor:Please post the dynamics of your hedge fund predictions!I know that hedge funds were hurting for revenue and they needed thepremium up front on the Credit Default Swaps to justify their fees.They swallowed the bait and they are at the bottom of the pyramid.They are not regulated, so their positions are opaque!The prime bank dealers for the hedge funds are the investmentbanks and they will be hurt when they go under!I think that Paulson intends to allow his investment bank friendsto access the reverse auctions first. The reason is they have theprocedure down before others(Paulson will advise). They will vacuumall toxics to the government! They will not give equity participation,because Paulson has articulated that cannot be done until a companyhas failed. We all know they are all insolvent, but the american peopledon’t know.I think you want to be helpful in your suggestions, but can youshow us how the pyramid shakes out?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:58 am
This is a long post. I hope some readers find it worthwhile. PeteCA.———————————————-COMMENTS ON JOHN HUSSMAN’S WEEKLY ANALYSISI’d like to make some comments on the latest analysis by Dr. John Hussman. Readers can find it under Dr. Hussman’s weekly commentary at http://www.hussmanfunds.com .Incidentally, I always enjoy reading what Dr Hussman has to say. He became popular with many readers because of his helpful analysis of funds flows at the Fed. But he continues to keep his cool on Wall St, in spite of the most egregious activities going on at high levels in the system. Let me pick up his last series of comments, and then I’ll add mine at the end.———————-John Hussman:talking about a hypothetical bank on Wall St.Consider a simplified balance sheet of a typical investment bank:Good assets: $95Assets gone bad: $5TOTAL ASSETS: $100Liabilities to customers/counterparties: $80Debt to bondholders of company: $17Shareholder equity: $3TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY: $100Now, as these bad assets get written off, shareholder equity is also reduced. What has happened in recent months is that this equity has become insufficient, so that the company technically becomes insolvent provided that the bondholders have to be paid off:Good assets: $95Assets gone bad (written off): $0TOTAL ASSETS: $95Liabilities to customers/counterparties: $80Debt to bondholders of company: $17Shareholder equity: ($2)TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY: $95These institutions are not failing because 95% of the assets have gone bad. They are failing because 5% of the assets have gone bad and they over-stretched their capital. At the heart of the problem is “gross leverage” – the ratio of total assets taken on by the company to its shareholder equity. The sequence of failures we’ve observed in recent months, starting with Bear Stearns, has followed almost exactly in order of their gross leverage multiples. After Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac went into crisis, Lehman and Merrill Lynch followed. Morgan Stanley, and Hank Paulson’s former employer, Goldman Sachs, remain the most leveraged companies on Wall Street, with gross leverage multiples above 20. … Look at the insolvent balance sheet again. The appropriate solution is not for the government to replace the bad assets with public money, but rather for the government to execute a receivership of the failed institution and immediately conduct a “whole bank” sale – selling the bank’s assets and liabilities as a package, but ex the debt to bondholders, which preserves the ongoing business without loss to customers and counterparties, wipes out shareholder equity, and gives bondholders partial (perhaps even nearly complete) recovery with the proceeds.—————————————————Now my own additional comments:First, thanks to Dr Hussman for writing a letter to Congress. Why do I get the feeling that no-one on Capitol Hill is bothering to consider any alternative commentary? That may be the real cause of the economic hardship that is destined for America. We’ve got leaders who are just not listening – especially when they SHOULD be listening!Second. What’s wrong with Dr Hussman’s analysis? Answer – absolutely nothing … if that’s what the true holdings of the bank really are. It’s a perfectly good solution and we should adopt it, if this is the real state of affairs on Wall St.But I want to take the above analysis and examine it a little bit more. Let’s suppose at the hypothetical bank described above, this bank made some very greedy choices in mortgage assets a long time ago. They have acquired mortage-based assets (securities) that are now highly sensitive in value to downturns in the US housing market. As a result, in a relatively short period of time, the bank’s assets now change to look more like this …Good assets: $80Assets gone bad: $0 (it was $20 of assets at one time)TOTAL ASSETS: $80Liabilities to customers/counterparties: $80Debt to bondholders of company: $17Shareholder equity: ($2)TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY: $95Notice that in my new example, a whopping 20% of the banks assets have soured and need to be written off. Notice also that the total assets of the bank now equal the liabilities to counterparties. This bank is at serious risk – for not meeting its contracts, such as CDS contracts negotiated in over-the-counter deals.Now imagine that you (the reader) happen to be Mr Paulson or Mr Bernanke, and you do a survey of this bank’s assets. You quickly discover that the bank is ready to collapse and then fail to meet its obligations in the CDS and derivatives markets. So what do you do?Well the answer is quite simple …You PANIC … and then you do the following:1) Call an emergency meeting with Congress – and tell them all to panic too!2) Pull together a massive rescue effort that shoves all the costs of the bad assets onto the taxpayers.3) Attempt to prevent any further price deterioration in the financial sector by banning all short sales.So here are my conclusions from this hypothetical study:* Based on the actions of Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke, it is likely that the true state of affairs inside the major Wall St banks may be much WORSE than most people believe.* If a rescue bill is passed, it means that all the major Wall St banks have been put on critical life support. We don’t have even one single bank that can stand on its own feet. They are all on CPR. Draw your own conclusions about what this means about the real state of financial health in the USA.PeteCA
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:01 am
…”the american people” that has been said over and over again by these american politicans…why just help the middle class? What happened to the class beneath (poor) is it that the middle now will understand what it is like to live a notch below or maybe there is no such thing anymore. Mr. McCain speaking for the american people is frightening to this canadian listener… didn’t they vote for less food stamps?
Mother of God from the rooftops • September 25th, 2008 at 11:05 am
“No matter how paranoid or conspiracy-minded you are, what the government is actually doing is worse than you imagine.” William Blum (former State Dept.)Killing Hope.orgIt’s all just a little bit of history repeating. BCCI is a forgotten memory.hi, AfA. be well.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
BAILOUT PROTEST ON WALL STREET TODAY AT 4PM.I hope to see all you NYC taxpayers at the bailout protest today at 4pm. Meet at southern end of Bowling Green Park in the Plaza. See you there!http://openthread.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/24/93411/8879/681/608512
srelf • September 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Teach everyone a lesson? …like they learned after the Great Depression? …after the S&L scandal? The lessons don’t get learned, it’s a dysfunctional society. We just need to do what we can to ease the pain. Pain which will be disproportionately on the poor. The bankers can live off their fat for quite a while!
Mom • September 25th, 2008 at 11:19 am
debtors getting a break goes against the pillar of cheap labor. it really is that simple.
Mom • September 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am
99% of the world is underpaid. 99% of the world works for 1% of the world. it really is that simple.HOMEH sounds like Homer (Simpson) to me, btw…
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Not that it would have much effect on corrupt politicians but a protest in DC is also needed.
Yep, it's me • September 25th, 2008 at 11:24 am
And Jesus wept
randy • September 25th, 2008 at 11:25 am
I agree. Protest in front of Congress NOT the FED or Treasury. They are the enemy here! Congress is the only hope…..!!!!!!!!!
randy • September 25th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Congress is bought and paid for by the lobbyists for the wall street bank et al.Until we stop this from continuing to happen, nothing will change. Follow the money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:30 am
That looks like Morgan Stanley!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Everyone in this country can bitch-slap wall st by putting all of their 401K money in the now 100% gauranteed money market funds. Oh yeah, that will probably be made illegal soon too…protect your capital, shes coming down hard…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Protests are being held across the country today. See link:http://truemajority.wiredforchange.com/event/distributedEventCalendar.jsp
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Ahhhh, finally found out why stocks are rallying today…bad news is good news and the worse the news, the better the rally!New home sales plunge 11.5% in August. Down 34.5% from this same time last year and inventories are now at 10.9 months. Yup, that is worth a couple hundred points for sure!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
This rescue for the Wall Street billionaires demonstrates that the government operates for the benefit of the insiders. This is a wakeup call, if Americans are going to save their country. Congress and Bernanke and Paulson are rushing to get this passed because the opposition to it is building so fast it would be dead by next week.I think the boys are in an incredibly deep situation. They are into derivatives and leveraging far, far greater than they’ll ever admit and many of the Street’s companies are dead men walking in debt that they can’t cover.I can see it all now: Paulson and Bernanke were standing around the bar saying we need more bailout to fix things and Frank and Dodd were asking, how much do you boys think you’ll need? And Paulson was saying, well, a trillion ought to be a start. And Frank and Dodd shaking their heads, can’t do it boys, can’t get that figure past the public. And P and B bartering: $900bn? Too high. $800bn? No. $700 bn? Ah. That’ll do it, doesn’t sound like a trillion. Done!And that’s how they came up with the $700bn, in my opinion, and it probably doesn’t even come close to fixing their debts. And by time the Democrats get their chunks for what they want, it’s going to be a boondoggler that could put the country on the skids.If any good comes from this, it’s that the public will turn on the robber bankers as the cause of its increasing impoverishment and will kick the hide of its Congressional watchdog for being the lousy dog that it is.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Yes, Wall Street, that bordello where Congress beds down with its keepers. I would give a $1000 Grover Cleveland to be there. GO GO GO
James • September 25th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Understanding the Crisis in the Markets: A Panel of Harvard ExpertsSeptember 25, 2008Dear alumni and friends,I invite you to join us Thursday, September 25, for a live webcast of a special panel discussion entitled “Understanding the Crisis in the Markets: A Panel of Harvard Experts.”We are fortunate to have on campus some of the nation’s leading scholars and practitioners in finance, policy, law, and other fields relevant to the current situation, and several of them have generously agreed to participate in a special session for the Harvard community to help us understand and interpret recent developments in the U.S. and world markets.The panel will begin at 4:00 p.m. EST and will include the following faculty members:Robert Kaplan, Professor of Management PracticeJay Light, Dwight P. Robinson, Jr. Professor of Business Administration and Dean of the Faculty of Business AdministrationGregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of EconomicsRobert Merton, John and Natty McArthur University ProfessorKenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public PolicyElizabeth Warren, Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law (To Be Confirmed)I hope, that you will take advantage of this opportunity to hear from some of Harvard’s leading experts by visitingthis link. The webcast will not be password-protected and will be recorded and made available for future viewing. Real Player is required.With all best wishes,Drew G. FaustPresident and Lincoln Professor of History
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 11:58 am
what do the richest do?they steal 98% of world wealth, thus creating giant misery for humanity – not only the deprivation for 50 million a year, not only causing one million girls to be sold into a life of brutal sex slavery a year, not only depriving 2 million a year of sight for lack of 4 cents worth of vitamin A per year, not only blowing the limbs off millions of people, but throwing the world into unnecessary financial chaos, extreme violence, danger terror misery hardship suffering, violence which gets to everyone including themselves, violence proportional to the inequality [highest pay per year is a billion times lowest pay/yr], warmongering and cannonfoddering millions a year, violence which escalates endlessly, now close to extinction of all life, forcing millions to kill and be killed, who would never otherwise leave their honest decent happy lives, putting everyone on a racking ladder of desperate striving to climb, climb, climb [and for 99%, to still end up with less money than they would have had without superoverunderpay] to create giant fear and stress, labour of war, diplomacy, war materiel making, legal argybargy, court cases, hospital cases, corrupting medicine and science, poisoning for profit, imprisoning for profit, wasting 99% of brains through serving violence and through poverty, shrinking the world market to a tenth of what it would be with fairpay, lying cheating, deceiving, controlling, spoiling, littering history with corpses and tragedies, wastes and griefs, torturing at will, far above the law in everything, bringing destruction down on their heads in revolutions and conquerings – stealing everything – stealing everyone’s future, stealing everyone’s freedom, safety and pleasure, everyone’s sanity and responsibility and integrity, befouling religion with falsehoods, rewriting editing scriptures till all true religion is utterly lost, beyond imagination for all, causing the loss of all world topsoil in this century, ——“If there were but one person in the world, it is manifest that he could have no more wealth than he was able to make and save. This is the natural order.” – Henry George.This is the sanity, the common sense, the whole-picture reality that the richest have driven us all far from.Injustice creates divisions and hatreds and fighting, and justice imparts harmony and friendship, said Plato – this is the simple sense we have departed from – have forgotten, because an example of a just world is just too far back to remember.By abolishing covetousness, Lycurgus removed all motive for civil broil and contest. – said Polybius.Inequalities between rich and poor had come to a head. Athens stood on the brink of revolution. Equality breeds no strife, was widely repeated. Plutarch said.Pay justice can be restored, gently, without economic disturbance, without bureaucracy, without making economic waves, with capitalism, by making everyone in the world equal heirs to large deceased estates – to overfortunes, to other-earned fortunes – to fortunes raked by the legal thefts, by the many pays for no work, which mean work for no pay for others, which means violence, ever-escalating, as both sides try to prevail, which means ever-bigger weaponry ever-bigger wars such as we see in our wake going back 3000 years.Legal theft: the two things in a transaction cannot have exactly equal workvalue, therefore there is a drop of inequality, of theft, in every transaction. With trillions of transactions, this becomes an ocean of inequality, violence misery – growing with every transaction. A company is a funnel, a centre of transactions. We have to introduce a counter to this endlessly growing injustice: The purpose of government is justice, said James Madison.So the richest have stolen most wealth, most happiness, most safety, all of the future of humanity except the next 30 years or so, give or take the next 30 years or so, till the violence reaches the level to use the bombs.Governments cannot save us – they have been devoured by superwealth. Only a grassroots growth in awareness, realism, sobriety, simple good sense, maturity, and practicality in the people can drive events to safety and peace.If each teach just two, every adult can be reached in just 31 times the time to teach two – by word of mouth alone. There are 3 billion to reach but 3 billion to reach them – with all their resources and media. Culture is ideas. Only change of ideas changes culture: change your ideas, survive, be far happier.In Crete, they had 3000 years of peace, and multi-room houses with plumbing for everyone, before trade, with its drop-drop-drop of inequality, got away. What have we got now? 9/11 and 40% of people in slums, rampant disease, ignorance, dirt – a future of tyranny-slavery unto irradiated oblivion, disgrace, dishonour.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Do we care?“The Creation of the Second Great Depression” by RON PAULSeptember 25 — Whenever a Great Bipartisan Consensus is announced, and a compliant media assures everyone that the wondrous actions of our wise leaders are being taken for our own good, you can know with absolute certainty that disaster is about to strike.The events of the past week are no exception.The bailout package that is about to be rammed down Congress’ throat is not just economically foolish. It is downright sinister. It makes a mockery of our Constitution, which our leaders should never again bother pretending is still in effect. It promises the American people a never-ending nightmare of ever-greater debt liabilities they will have to shoulder. Two weeks ago, financial analyst Jim Rogers said the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made America more communist than China! “This is welfare for the rich,” he said. “This is socialism for the rich. It’s bailing out the financiers, the banks, the Wall Streeters.”That describes the current bailout package to a T. And we’re being told it’s unavoidable.The claim that the market caused all this is so staggeringly foolish that only politicians and the media could pretend to believe it. But that has become the conventional wisdom, with the desired result that those responsible for the credit bubble and its predictable consequences – predictable, that is, to those who understand sound, Austrian economics – are being let off the hook. The Federal Reserve System is actually positioning itself as the savior, rather than the culprit, in this mess!· The Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time. That means $700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.· Financial institutions are “designated as financial agents of the Government.” This is the New Deal to end all New Deals.· Then there’s this: “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.” Translation: the Secretary can buy up whatever junk debt he wants to, burden the American people with it, and be subject to no one in the process.There goes your country.Even some so-called free-market economists are calling all this “sadly necessary.” Sad, yes. Necessary? Don’t make me laugh.Our one-party system is complicit in yet another crime against the American people. The two major party candidates for president themselves initially indicated their strong support for bailouts of this kind – another example of the big choice we’re supposedly presented with this November: yes or yes. Now, with a backlash brewing, they’re not quite sure what their views are. A sad display, really.Although the present bailout package is almost certainly not the end of the political atrocities we’ll witness in connection with the crisis, time is short. Congress may vote as soon as tomorrow. With a Rasmussen poll finding support for the bailout at an anemic seven percent, some members of Congress are afraid to vote for it. Call them! Let them hear from you! Tell them you will never vote for anyone who supports this atrocity.The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom? Do we care about responsibility and accountability? Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for? Do we care that average Americans are about to be looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government? Do we care?When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media?Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be.http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul479.html
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
BULLETIN U.S. STOCKS SURGE TO DAY’S HIGH AS SENATE BANK CHIEF HAILS ‘FUNDAMENTAL’ BAILOUT AGREEMENT
One-Eyed Fiona • September 25th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
@PeteCA Thanks very much for that excellent link of Hussman’s. I just read the whole piece and, like you, I am totally incredulous that the people who SHOULD be listening are not. In my email to Speaker Pelosi this morning, I made the following point:”4) There are many very prominent economists weighing in on this plan (most of them academics in major universities) who have excellent suggestions and most of whom were probably not paid by lobbyists to draft them. There are also prominent economists who doubt the usefulness or need of the plan even in a modified form. In any case, it is being rushed through in such a precipitous way that the process does not allow the input of many qualified observers to be given the respect it properly deserves.5) In view of point 4, we therefore need to take the time to study real alternatives, and develop a sound approach to restore the confidence in U.S. economic system. Without this, we are again avoiding our responsibilities and continuing on the path which led to this sad situation in the first place.”Dr. Hussman’s article is certainly one of these alternatives.Is it me or is everyone disgusted by the obviousness of this power grab, where “rescue” is a euphemism for “transfer of obligation” which, in slang, means “getting shafted”? Wouldn’t it be at least entertaining if these guys had some style? I mean, how pathetic is it to put our First Frat Boy on TV to whine at us?! Did they actually think THAT would help??Cheers,One-Eyed Fiona
hazleton • September 25th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Your crude name does not belong on a blog with such distinguished people.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
SO what down up 1000 by day’s end?
mock turtle • September 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
the 700 billion bailout is enough moneyTO PAY THE ENTIRE MORTGAGAE OF EVERY SUBPRIME HOME OWNER WHO IS IN TROUBLE OF DEFAULTwe are being robbed by wall street and bush pure and simple
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
What a friggin joke and scam!!!1:11 p.m.Brazil’s Bovespa index up 4% after U.S. reaches bailout deal1:11 p.m.Mexico’s IPC index up 2.2% after U.S. reaches bailout deal
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Breaking News >> Lawmakers Say Financial Bailout Agreement Reached
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Banking System Will Need Another $500 Billion:excerptThe banking system needs another $500 billion to survive beyond the $700 billion rescue plan being contemplated by Congress, said Pimco founder Bill Gross.Gross said that the government bailout plan will help free up bank balance sheets so they can start lending again, but will provide only about $50 billion in real capital to the system.”The plan goes far but it doesn’t go far enough in terms of recapitalization,” he said. “The banking system and the investment banking system in total really requires about $500 billion more. Where that comes from is still up in the air.”http://www.cnbc.com/id/26885559
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Here we go!! US stocks to the moon! Can’t sell off and show disappointment now that teh US taxpayer has been wiped out…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Markets up almost 3% now.
BobH • September 25th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Pete, small correction in your above example. Remember Asset = Liabilities + Shareholder Equity.Thus, Shareholder Equity would now be (17) rather than (2).But point well stated … now if you go to the future with Fed ‘bail out’ purchasing bad assets. Look at what price the Fed has to buy the bad assets at to make the shareholder go to zero (0). That’s the issue!The Fed will have to pay inflated prices just to bring the bank back to minimum solvency. Now somebody (More Fed?) needs to inject capital into them to open up lending.It’s a much bigger mess than most know!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
The Idiocy of Wall Street: Applauding Its Own Demis by Don A. RichThe vertigo factor in the last two weeks of the stock market has been high: down 400 points, down 400 points, up 400 points, down 400 points, up… Which is it, one wants to know, because to have the answer as to the state of the future would relieve anxiety in the short run, even though the things we do to relieve short-run anxiety often cause long-term calamity.Things like nationalizing the finance industry of the United States, which is, effectively speaking, the consequence of Federal Reserve and Treasury actions of the last two days.The humor factor in the rally of last week has been far higher than the vertigo factor, however, as Wall Street bizarrely applauds the nationalization of the finance industry. I like to be less anxious, but not at the expense of socialism – or more likely fascism, the latter of which (when you listen carefully to the drumbeat for war with target of the month, Pakistan) is the clear direction of US policy.Maybe former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neil was right about those guys in front of the green trading screens on Wall Street being trained monkeys, because the actions and announcements emanating from the federal government have been anything but good for the wealth-creation mechanisms of capitalism, or for the future of liberty for that matter.We were told less than six weeks ago by the Congressional Budget Office that the taxpayers may have to spend up to $25 billion dollars bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke assured us that beyond that, all was well.Why is anyone still listening to Paulson and Bernanke?The announced bailout plans six weeks later have costs that Paulson and Bernanke now admit will run at least into the hundreds of billions of dollars. But why is anyone still listening to Paulson and Bernanke?Given the economics discussed below, and the government’s lack of credibility to date, the real costs will now clearly run into the high trillions. The question is, who will get stuck with the losses and how will that loss-distribution process be handled? For Wall Street to applaud the prospect of the upcoming events is lunacy. Why is anyone listening to Paulson and Bernanke?Read the rest of the article:http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig9/rich-d1.htmlDon A. Rich is an instructor of economics, finance, and political science at Montgomery County Community College in Blue Bell, PA. He also teaches economics, government, and history at Delaware County Community College in Exton, PA.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
WOOOOOOOOOO!!! BOOM!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Whew, now I can sleep at night knowing that Congress is so on top of things. I guess Wall Street can start dancing in the street again … at least until next week.God help the USA!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
ALL THE PROTESTS BY US CITIZENS WON’T MATTER-IT NEVER DOES…go home and hug your kids tonight for today, the world has changed and it was not for the better…politicains and their wall street financiers a=hve ruined America.
curious • September 25th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
It feels like the argument for main street to support this program was like extorting support via fear on “you will not being able to get a loan, your 401k going down”, etc. Bullying and fear won this argument.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
1:40 p.m.[WM] Washington Mutual shares plunge 30%, to $1.56Don’t worry Wamu, the govt is coming, the govt is coming….
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
bailout needed now for WAMU
Hazleton-Schmazleton • September 25th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
How about my “crude” name, Hazleton? Anybody who reminds us to consider the words of one of our best spiritual fathers (Mark Twain) at a time like this is OK with me, whatever name they use.#8>)
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
LOLOL wait until this plan falls flat on its face and they need to come back to congress for a second $700 Billion traunch…anarchy will reign supreme.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
2:00 p.m.$250 bln in bailout funds to be ready immediately: report1:59 p.m. Bill to OK $700 bln fund but paid in installments: report1:58 p.m. Congress reaches tentative agreement on bailout bill: report
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
2:02 p.m. Limit on use of warrants applied to all companies: report2:02 p.m. Limit on ‘golden parachutes’ to apply to all firms: report
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Hee, hee!! He also says he’ll manage the bailout FOR FREE!!! What a great guy!!http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/business/economy/25pimco.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=sloginCan anyone tell me who’s writing these scripts and making up these characters? This is ‘reality tv’ at its most post-modern!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
you are correct, but the government does not care. They rather use the money to help their Wall Street friends.
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122235295272975207.html?mod=googlenews_wsj“IN CERTAIN CASES,the government COULD receive warrants that would give itthe right to acquire shares in a company.THEY ARE TRYING TO FOOL US AGAIN! I am assuming the reverse auctions will not have equityparticipation. Paulson is going to bail out his buddies and the companieswithout the debt will get the potential upside.Nothing to assist the debt load of the homeowners!We need a copy of the draft!Can somebody leak it to us??
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Ya know, we the people do have some power-we should boycot the election this year. All citizens should stay home and refuse to vote until they promise to uphold “of the people, for the people”…
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Thank you HSchmazleton. I was stunned and hurt by hazleton’s cruel remark.”When moralists are on the rise, true goodness is in decline.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Just updated my stock valuation model with fresh earnings estimates…teh S&P 500 is worth 1118.21 today, 7.97% LESS than where they trade right now. Protect your capitla, panic is near, you have been warned…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
2:19 p.m.China bank regulator denies report of lending ban to U.S. banks
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Thank you very much for your kindness, anon.Namaste
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
2:19 p.m. Rep. Bachus statement doesn’t say deal reached
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
and maybe Paulson does not like it
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
FDIC according to some experts will require at least another 150 billion
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
2:19 p.m.Rep. Bachus says lawmakers agreed to continue discussions
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
profit taking. Institutions know this wont work.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Isn’t this exactly what the 2nd Amendment is for?
Hazleton-Schmazleton • September 25th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Pas de quoi, MoG (or is it OMG?). (Where is “Archimedes” from BTW? I’ve read literally everything published and ‘unpublished’ by MT and can’t remember where that one comes from. I love Twain because he’s our Schopenhauer but with humorous hope…)
2cents • September 25th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I would be willing to back this bill if there was a clause stating that all authors and consignees of this bill are entitled to 75% of all profits realized but subject to personally pay for 50% of all losses!
2cents • September 25th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
There is going to be quite a bit of money made off of this bill. With $700 billion in LEMONS there’s going to be a lot of lemonade to be made!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
my target is 1080
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Looks like some conservatives (that is if you can call a French conservative a conservative)no long believe in the markets.TOULON, France, Sept 25 (Reuters) – French President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded an overhaul of the world’s capitalist system on Thursday, saying the financial crisis had laid bare serious flaws in international banking.In a keynote speech on the market mayhem, Sarkozy said the crisis would weigh on the French economy for months to come, but promised that nobody in France would lose their bank deposits.”A certain idea of globalisation is drawing to a close with the end of a financial capitalism that had imposed its logic on the whole economy and contributed to perverting it,” Sarkozy told some 4,000 supporters at a rally in southern France.”The idea of the absolute power of the markets that should not be constrained by any rule, by any political intervention, was a mad idea. The idea that markets are always right was a mad idea,” he said.He repeated his call for major power leaders to meet before the end of the year to map out a new financial system and said it was vital to review currency levels, adding that both the dollar and Chinese yuan were undervalued.”We cannot continue to manage the economy of the 21st century with the instruments of the economy of the 20th century,” he said.He also warned bankers and business leaders to curb their salary levels, saying the government would introduce legislation by the end of the year if they failed to reform themselves.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
2:45 p.m.Quick Fed rate cut on table
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
we could all refuse to pay our federal income tax.which from all I’ve read is not technically required by law anyway.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
I bet there’s more to this than’s being said. I don’t think the Chinese are above floating a rumor and quashing it after receiving something in return. I think they’re smarter players economically than our Wall Street fat cats — they just know how to cheat the dim bulbs in Congress and print money.
2cents • September 25th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
I must say that these house representatives have got some real chutzpah. Their peers are all jumping off the bridge and their in line right behind them!• Has anyone told them that the bridge they are jumping off of has nothing but rocks below!• Has anyone told them that it’s a one way trip!• Have you told your representatives that they have whopping zero percent chance of ever receiving your vote again!Folks, I strongly believe that out of this a new political party will be formed. Not akin to the independent party, but a mainstream high profile party that eventually takes command within 2 to 6 years. There are simply too many people pissed at what is happening. My 80 year old parents tell me of how the older people are simply disgusted. They tell me how many have actually contacted there representatives for the first time in their lives to express their anger! My 20 something nieces and nephews have talked about how their peers are all over the internet blasting this bill! As I said folks this bill has united a broad spectrum of the population against the establishment. The unity is there. All that is needed is a leader to rise and lead this new group into the future!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
2:49 p.m.Sen. Shelby: exclude foreign banks from rescue plan2:48 p.m.Sen. Shelby says he has doubts about rescue plan
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
PPT gonna double this beyotch in the magic hour…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
09/25 Taiwan Unexpectedly Lowers Rate First Cut Since 200309/25 Hong Kong Calms Depositors After Bank East Asia Run09/25 China Stocks Jump on Speculation Government to Step Up Buying09/25 Japan’s Export Growth Slows as U.S. Shipments Plunge09/25 BOJ Adds 1 Trillion Yen in 7th Day of Fund Injections09/25 Libor Rises Most Since 1999 as Banks Shun Money Market Lending09/25 Barker Says It’s Too Early to Dismiss U.K. Inflation Risk09/25 Brown Urges U.S. to Back Bailout, Plans Bush Visit09/25 Ireland Becomes First Euro Nation to Enter Recession
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
Ron Paul
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“I place economy among the first and most important of republican virtues, and debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared.” -Thomas Jefferson -1816.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” Lord John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), renowned British economist.
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Just called Cong. John Hall’s (NY 19) about it, and the guy there sounds like he is very amenable to reason, will only vote if it’s a good bill. Told him this one isn’t good enough.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Always wanted to live in Alabama, maybe I’ll move there and vote FOR Shelby.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
3:11 p.m.Kazakhstan to set up a $6 billion fund to help banks: report
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
INVESTOR ALERT Bailout breakthrough spurs Wall Street rallyThe healines tonight, “Wall Street Cheers Charity From US Taxpayer”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
WSJ: SEC (Gestapo)MOVES IN ON HEDGE FUNDSThe SEC has ordered more than two dozen hedge funds to disclose trading information as part of its investigation into market manipulation.Referenced Tickers: WM MS GS AIG MER LEHMQ9/25/2008 11:17 AM ET
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Bank buys toxic asset from hedge fund at slightly above market price. Bank sells that toxic asset to Treasury at “hold-to-maturity” price. Bank makes a nice spread. Oh, to be a banker in the good ol’ USA.Ernst
aleister perdurabo • September 25th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Michael Hudson on Counterpoint today:Behind this shift in legislative choice was the perception that no economy can keep up with the burden of debts growing at exponential rates faster than the economy itself is growing. No economy can grow at steady exponential rates; only debts can multiply in this way. That is why Mr. Paulson’s $700 billion giveaway to his Wall Street colleagues cannot work.What it can do is provide a one-time transfer of wealth to insiders who already have been playing the debt-credit system and siphoning off its predatory financial proceeds to themselves. The Wall Street bankers, brokers and fund managers to whom I’ve been speaking for many decades all know this. That is why they pay themselves such large annual bonuses and large salaries each year. The idea is to take as much as you can. As the saying goes: “You only have to make a fortune once in a lifetime.” They have been salting away their fortunes year after year, mainly in hard assets: real estate (free of mortgages), fine furniture, boats and trophy art. One last $700 billion heist and they can make their getaway.http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson09252008.html
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
“Warren E. Buffett, known as a sharp investor with an eye for undervalued securities, has agreed to pay $700 million for a 12 percent stake in Salomon Inc., the parent company of Salomon Brothers Inc., Wall Street’s largest investment banking house.”- September 28, 1987, New York TimesYes, September 1987, almost 21 years to the day. This is one weird rabbit hole we’ve tumbled down, Alice.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Correct. I got rid of my Deutsche Bank DKT shares today.
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Why are you guys so concerned, this bailout is very good for the US economy … and other unfathomable things. Sarah Palin got it all right. I like her logic.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npUMUASwaecAmerica is SOOOO doomed.Is Montreal far enough?
Melvin Furd • September 25th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I am disgusted at the Democrats mostly for caving into this and one day (no not even 24 hrs) after that Bush guy with an approval rating of like 20 percent gets on with his empty fear mongering. After reading this blog day after day for the past year I am convinced that our real worth is in the People. These Senators are a bunch of scared rabbits. They are also beholden to goodness knows who. Dont they read the quotes of Jefferson like the one above before caving like this?I am awaiting also to see the draft and wondering if now the Treasury Secretary has dictatorial powers as was delineated in the first proposal 2 days ago! If so, then I am convinced that something dastardly is afoot.Be Vigilant.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
“Warren E. Buffett, known as a sharp investor with an eye for undervalued securities, has agreed to pay $700 million for a 12 percent stake in Salomon Inc., the parent company of Salomon Brothers Inc., Wall Street’s largest investment banking house.”- September 28, 1987, New York TimesYes, September 1987, almost 21 years to the day. This is one weird rabbit hole we’ve tumbled down, Alice.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Just like the Communists: it’s not out of character for the French to spout communism, which is a part of their government coalition. Sarkozy is blaming the problems of a centrally planned, privately-manipulated financial system that issues fiat currency under its own name – the Federal Reserve System — on the workings of a free market.Says Sarkozy: “The idea of the absolute power of the markets that should not be constrained by any rule, by any political intervention, was a mad idea. The idea that markets are always right was a mad idea,” he said… He repeated his call for major power leaders to meet before the end of the year to map out a new financial system…This is what the left has always done. It reminds me of non-religious people defining what’s wrong with religion.As the late economist Murray N. Rothbard said: “We live in a world of euphemism. Undertakers have become ‘morticians,’ press agents are now ‘public relations counselors,’ and janitors have all been transformed into ‘superintendents.’ In every walk of life, plain facts have been wrapped in cloudy camouflage.”He would not be surprised to hear Sarkozy call a managed economy gone awry, where the government is always tinkering to keep the economic engine in working order, i.e. Karl Marx’s currently fashionable attitude of the economy as subject and the government as master, free market capitalism.But, as Rothbard says, “‘[G]eneral economic theory’ teaches us that supply and demand always tend to be in equilibrium in the market, and that therefore prices of products as well as of the factors that contribute to production are always tending toward some equilibrium point.”Ah, what we have lost.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Charity from Japan, China, Saudi, etc…
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
If the reps in Washington had any real concern for the citizens of the USA they would cap credit card fees and rates, and allow consumers access to their IRA’s if needed. The repealing of high interest rates would alleviate the coming credit crunch, say cap them off ayt prime plus 300 bps, the same with home equity loans. Unfortuantely the n=banks will be raising their fees and interest rates anyway they can
randy • September 25th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
I agree. I’d vote for Ron Paul in a minute. He seems to be the only one that understands the real reasons behind how we got here. The FED and fractional reserve banking! His book “the Revolution” says it all! Close the military bases in the 130 countires that we have them in, bring the troops home, stop the wars, bring the troops home, stop the aid to all the countries that currently get it by the billions………….These steps alone would bring us significantly back toward fiscal balance and cut the budget significantly! This is not rocket science! It’s all basic math!
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
One moreDid she ever got an interview before getting a job?This is pathetic.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
More bad news for stocks to rally on tommorow…4:10 p.m.Chrysler to fire about 300 salaried employees
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
The Bottom line:The consumer has getting inreasingly ripped off by the banking sector since the RTC bail-out. Back then loans were spred 150 basis points over prime, now they are 300 basis points. There is no doubt the oligopolistic banking sector will now raise there usurious credit card rates and fees, squeezing the consumer even more. There should be a cap put on all of these rates, to help allevaite the pressure on Americans.Also, the real blame can be laid on deregulation and the allowance of investment banks to 1) leverage (a law repealed 2 years ago)from 10-1 to 30-1. Now 2 huge hedge funds :blew up” already with this kind of leverage. 20 The fomc chairmans love of a Randist philosophy and applying it to the financial markets-let the markets police themselves-thanks for the non regulation of the cds markets, the mortgage markets. I think the blame can easily be laid at the door of the steward of our banks and country over the last 8 years, but mostly out of the idolization of our previuos fed chairman- essentially he embraced a pop philosopher-Rand, applied her simple precepts to our economy, which has brought it closer to the regime she hated-incredible.macro-Man
Theta • September 25th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
I have no doubt the entire three page document was carefully crafted and presented by a master negotiator. Paulson presenting a short document with outrageous demands guaranteed to outrage congress knowing that the first thing congress would do is tack on extra restrictions. Paulson knew he would be negotiated down, so he set the bar high enough so that when the dust settles he still has the money and the power needed to do the job, and congress gets to pat themselves on the back for a job well done. Add the short timeframe, a spooked president ‘guaranteeing’ a resolution by week’s end, and two presidential hopefuls struggling to demonstrate each is the most competent and you’re guaranteed to have the bill passed. Probably because no one wants to be the one to stop this thing because it’s much easier to say “we tried but it didn’t work” than to try to justify inaction with no data on whether it might have worked or not. I am sure Paulson and Bernanke have had many discussions on how to craft their proposal in such a manner as to guarantee passage and still leave everyone involved with a positive spin on the event. Well everyone but the sheeple, but who cares about them right?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
So, fellow bloggers, with the apparent passing of the bailout now being a fait accompli, we again find ourselves facing a decision that was made in a manner that is uncannily similar to the decision to go to war in Iraq. And with the same lack of understanding (both intentional and unintentional) by the MSM — check out this piece from nakedcapitalism.com:”New York Times Spreads Disinformation” (hmm,..ya think??)http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/new-york-times-spreads-disinformation.htmlSo, fellow bloggers, please continue to keep up your good work because, frankly, we’re the only ones left now who are living in a dreamworld.
OuterBeltway • September 25th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Don’t believe the MSM buffalo-stampede press. The bailout is NOT a done deal.Just got off the phone with 2 senators, 1 rep. Call volume higher than ever, massive rejection by public of the bailout. Of ANY bailout.The Congressional staffers are looking forward to your call. It’s their money, too, that’s being stolen and given to Wall Street. They want you to call!This is not a done deal. The entire congress has to vote on it, and the formal bill has not yet been written, let alone voted upon. Congress is nervous – they don’t really understand this, and they need your support to buck the President and Wall Street. They need your help to fend them off.Persistence is key. Wall Street is going for the “too late, it’s over!” trick. Don’t let them get away with it! Rise up, and roll them over.We must not give in. Fight! Fight! Fight!www.house.govwww.senate.gov
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
uh, oops, that would be “who are NOT living in a dreamworld”, but perhaps it was a Freudian slip. Maybe we’re just as deluded…
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
It is not a done deal. My congressman is listening to reason and I think he’s on the cusp. Every single Representative is up for election in a few weeks.They care what you think, and don’t acquiesce so that later they can say “you should have spoken up”. Now is the time to speak up, to fight! This will be a busy weekend, hang in there and keep the pressure on.We need:1. Equity acquisition like with AIG.2. True valuation, independent members of valuation committee (e.g. academics) because Bush promised us “current prices” last night.3. No secrecy, normal court oversight.The tranching doesn’t do it. It just means they will bail out Morgan Stanley first and maybe not get to others because the money ran out.
BobH • September 25th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Ernest, remember they put a must have owned before 9/17 clause. Funny post none the less … thanks
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
CNNMoney.comBailout protesters plan day of action ThursdayThursday September 25, 3:47 pm ETThe public backlash against the Bush administration’s proposal to use tax dollars to bailout Wall Street spilled into the streets Thursday.”People all over the country are up in arms about this,” said David Elliot, a spokesman for grassroots advocacy group UsAction. “Our members are livid, and they’re hitting the streets.”At present, there are 251 events planed in more than 41 states to protest the bailout, according to organizers at TrueMajority.com.Several organizations have contributed to the planning of the protests, including Democracy for America, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (Acorn) and labor unions.A protest organized by the New York Central Labor Council took place this afternoon on Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange.Another protest, which was spontaneously organized online, is also targeting New York’s financial district, where protestors plan to build a “pile of citizen junk” near the famous Wall Street bull statue later Wednesday.”Since Bush wants to buy up Wall Street’s worthless investments with Main Street’s hard-earned tax dollars, some folks are planning to bring their OWN junk to Wall Street to see if they can get a bailout, too,” citizen organizer Arun Gupta said in a statement.Gupta is the author of an e-mail message that initially inspired plans for the protest in New York.Protests are also planned in Washington. Events are scheduled to coincide with a 4 p.m. ET meeting at the White House between Bush administration officials, Congressional leaders and the presidential candidates to discuss the final details of the bailout plan.”The people we entrusted to run our economy have failed us,” said Alan Charney, program director of UsAction. “We can no longer trust them to get us out of this financial mess.”http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080925/092508_bailout_protests.html
Commissar 4822 • September 25th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20551(202) 452-3000Federal Reserve BanksBoston600 Atlantic AvenueBoston, MA 02205(617) 973-3000New York33 Liberty StreetNew York, NY 10045(212) 720-5000PhiladelphiaTen Independence MallPhiladelphia, PA 19106(215) 574-6000Cleveland1455 East Sixth StreetCleveland, OH 44114(216) 579-2000Richmond701 East Byrd StreetRichmond, VA 23219(804) 697-8000Atlanta1000 Peachtree Street NEAtlanta, GA 30309(404) 498-8500Chicago230 South LaSalle StreetChicago, IL 60604(312) 322-5322St. LouisOne Federal Reserve Bank PlazaBroadway and Locust StreetsSt. Louis, MO 63102(314) 444-8444Minneapolis90 Hennepin AvenueMinneapolis, MN 55401(612) 204-5000Kansas City1 Memorial DriveKansas City, MO 64198(816) 881-2000Dallas2200 North Pearl StreetDallas, TX 75201(214) 922-6000San Francisco101 Market StreetSan Francisco, CA 94105(415) 974-2000Federal Reserve BranchesNew YorkBuffaloKey Center, 40 Fountain Plaza, Suite 650, Buffalo, NY 14202P.O. Box 961, Buffalo, NY 14240-0961(716) 849-5000ClevelandCincinnati150 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH 45202P.O. Box 999, Cincinnati, OH 45201-0999(513) 721-4787Pittsburgh717 Grant Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15219P.O. Box 299, Pittsburgh, PA 15230(412) 261-7800RichmondBaltimore502 South Sharp Street, Baltimore, MD 21201P.O. Box 1378, Baltimore, MD 21203(410) 576-3300Charlotte530 Trade Street, Charlotte, NC 28202P.O. Box 30248, Charlotte, NC 28230(704) 358-2100AtlantaBirmingham524 Liberty Parkway, Birmingham, AL 35242(205) 968-6700Jacksonville800 Water Street, Jacksonville, FL 32204P.O. Box 929, Jacksonville, FL 32231-0044(904) 632-1000Miami9100 Northwest 36th Street, Miami, FL 33178P.O. Box 520847, Miami, FL 33152-0847(305) 591-2065Nashville301 Rosa L. Parks Blvd., Nashville, Tennessee 37203-4407P.O. Box 4407, Nashville, TN 37203-4407(615) 251-7100New Orleans525 St. Charles Avenue, New Orleans, LA 70130P.O. Box 61630, New Orleans, LA 70161-1630(504) 593-3200ChicagoDetroit1600 East Warren Avenue, Detroit, MI 48207-1063P.O. Box 1059, Detroit, MI 48231(313) 961-6880St. LouisLittle RockStephens Building, 111 Center Street, Suite 1000, Little Rock, AR 72201P.O. Box 1261, Little Rock, AR 72203-1261(501) 324-8300LouisvilleNational City Tower, 101 South Fifth Street, Louisville, KY 40202P.O. Box 32710, Louisville, KY 40232-2710(502) 568-9200Memphis200 North Main Street, Memphis, TN 38103P.O. Box 407, Memphis, TN 38101-0407(901) 523-7171MinneapolisHelena100 Neill Avenue, Helena, MT 59601(406) 447-3800Kansas CityDenver1020 16th Street, Denver, CO 80202Terminal Annex-P.O. Box 5228, Denver, CO 80217-5228(303) 572-2300Oklahoma City226 Dean A. McGee Avenue, Oklahoma City, OK 73102P.O. Box 25129, Oklahoma City, OK 73125(405) 270-8400Omaha2201 Farnam Street, Omaha, NE 68102P.O. Box 3958, Omaha, NE 68103(402) 221-5500DallasEl Paso301 East Main Street, El Paso, TX 79901P.O. Box 100, El Paso, TX 79999(915) 521-5200Houston1801 Allen Parkway, Houston, TX 77019P.O. Box 2578, Houston, TX 77252-2578(713) 659-4433San Antonio126 East Nueva Street, San Antonio, TX 78204P.O. Box 1471, San Antonio, TX 78295-1471(210) 224-2141San FranciscoLos Angeles950 South Grand Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90015Terminal Annex-P.O. Box 2077, Los Angeles, CA 90051(213) 683-2300Portland1500 SW First Avenue, Portland, OR 97201P.O. Box 3436, Portland, OR 97208(503) 276-3000Salt Lake City120 South State Street, Salt Lake City, UT 84111P.O. Box 30780, Salt Lake City, UT 84125(801) 322-7900Seattle2700 Naches Avenue SW, Renton, WA 98057P.O. Box 3567, Seattle, WA 98124(425) 203-0800
Theta • September 25th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Does anyone know of a way to get a look at the final draft?
OuterBeltway • September 25th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
This is what a healthy, well-run commercial bank (main street bank) has to say about the bailout.Well-managed Bank Opposes BailoutThis directly refutes the President’s claim that “you won’t be able to get a business loan if the bailout doesn’t happen”.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
The Ones who are destroying American Financial System and Economy1) Mr. Phil Gramm, and Mr. James Leach – Repealer of the Glass-Steagall Act by Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act – allowed massive securitization by the Wall Street Investment Banks and other financial entities2) Mr. Alan Greenspan – Fed’s irresponsible Monetary Policy maker and bubble blower – made a massive tech stock bubble and the biggest housing bubble3) Mr. Ben Bernanke – Irresponsible Monetary Policy maker and stock market manipulator – is killing the dollar and tanking the stock market4) Mr. Hank Paulson – Irresponsible Bailout King – is destroying American financial system and tanking American economy by incompetence and causing substandard living for Americans and making rich for the Wall Street manipulators by bringing in socialism for the rich and fraudster5) Mr. Christopher Cox – Flagrant violator of Capital Market and manipulator of the US Stock Market – causing the demise of capitalism6) Mr. Barney Frank and Mr. Christopher Dodd – Incompetent Accomplices destroying sound American Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Policies – is taking American people to a poor house at the expenses of self interest of reelection7) Mr. Timothy Geithner – Market Manipulator – is destroy American banking system in the behind scene
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
ROBERT REICH EXPLAINS THE HOODWINK! READ THE EQUITY PARTICIPATION PORTION!From the American Prospect Blog:Robert Reich explains why we should be wary about the just-announced bailout deal:But the devil is in the details. From what I’ve heard, the kinds of limits being discussed could easily be cosmetic, such as limits on golden parachutes or limits on net increases in direct salaries during the duration of the bailout. Public equity could also vaporize into conditional warrants, giving taxpayers (and the Treasury) the option to cash in on certain classes of stock or applying only where firms get direct government aid rather than where they fob off their bad debts on the public.There will be some skirmishing over whether homeowners in danger of losing their homes should be given some breaks, but here too it’s important to watch the details. Wall Street doesn’t want any provision that allows distressed homeowners to wiggle out of their mortgage obligations, even though Wall Street is wiggling out of its own bad debts.Congress knows the public is furious. That’s why it’s insisting on the above-mentioned provisions. But Congress, the Administration, and Wall Street also know that the public — and the media — can easily be hoodwinked into believing that certain limits and protections have been built into the deal when, on closer inspection, they haven’t. Wall Street is masterful at creating the appearances of value when there’s no value there, and many of our representatives in Congress are well-versed in the art of creating the appearances of public gains when the gains are mostly private. So the media has to dig hard and look at the details of this deal.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Doesn’t surprise me. I had that happen several times when I called Bank of America about various pieces of business. I always asked the agent why I would take their suggestions because it would only increase my debt, and most of the time the agent agreed with me and dropped the pitch.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Should we include any others in this list?
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
If you try and get your contressman’s contact info, not suprisingly, the page will haang on you.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I agree. We need a new party and another presidential candidate who truly cares about this great country and great people. We can write-in vote for Dr. Ron Paul.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Well put. However, the Democrats didn’t cave in, IMO, they took the lead all along – the voices we heard, Paulson, Dodd and Barney, are all Democrats. They were overjoyed at this opportunity: Number 1, they could criticize the Republicans. Number 2, they can get goodies beyond their dreams. They, and most of the rest of the pols, have their sticky fingerprints all over this heist. It’s time we the people realize most all these people are bought and paid for. Then, maybe, we can get somewhere.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Or we could vote for another candidate by write-in.
OuterBeltway • September 25th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Bailout Pushback Talking PointsWhen you call your congressional reps, here are some more talking points you can use. I’m cross-posting from the Calculated Risk blog:
Equity sharing is a distraction. The key missing piece … is pricing.The acceptability of the entire proposal hinges on this. Everything else is irrelevant by comparison. And we have heard not a peep about this at all…
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Perhaps you could add these two clowns – Mssrs. Sarbanes and Oxley
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Afa;I am concerned that Montreal will NOT be far enough. I have been reminding my friends and family that it was only after the French had a majority starving before they stormed the Bastile – We should not wait so long!!!!
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Look at the Professor’s STEP 1 and 2. Pricing and equity participation both are important,and are co-dependent. Since pricing is tough, equity participation is a must. The only waythat equity participation is not meaningful is if the assets are marked to market at closeto nothing. We don’t disagree that pricing is superimportant!!!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
This open-ended bailout deal is going to be the tar baby for every political complaint that’s coming down the pike — as well it should. Reich knows what the politicos are going to do, i.e., they’re going to posture and say they’ve forced the bankers into taking this concession and that concession before we handed them your money, and he’s already made a pre-emptive hit on that.Everybody, when this is over, is going to be saying we’ve been robbed, that Congress and those rich billionaires have taken us all for a ride. It’s going to be one story after the other because the public, in my opinion, was paying attention for once in its life.With Reich’s hit, it begins. And I say, Go for it!!
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
The problem with the government plan (and likely your plan also) is that because the participation is voluntary and not immediate:1) CEO of affected banks will first sell the best parts2) use this money to pay themselves astronomical bonuses3) THEN, AND ONLY THEN, give the rest (totally worthless) to the governement and won’t be bothered by the cap on their compensation since they paid themselves BEFORE getting into the plan.I am absolutely disgusted by Mr Paulson. How can they give him ANY credibility since he was CEO of Goldman Sac, the exact firm that invented, promoted and sold those worthless products.They should put Nouriel in charge and Nouriel should grow more teeth to eat those firm alive.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
If an economics student proposed a pile of dogcrap like this as a solution to this problem, he would find himself as a former economics student, invited to join the political science department.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
They’ve made something so complicated, and even made it so hard to find the text, that it is difficult to put together talking points. Then they ram through approval on the weekend.No way. Whoever votes for this, walks the plank.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Yep! Good sign: their servers are overloaded.Tidal wave, baby! Do your part!
OuterBeltway • September 25th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Way to go! Tell your congresspeople! This is a tug-of-war. To pull on the rope, call your Congresspeople!www.house.govwww.senate.govPull, baby, Pull!
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
William Greider(Secrets of the Temple) is quoted in Huffington Postand the concept is simple enough for Congress to understand!The smartest sage on all of this, William Grieder of The Nation, has the best possible fallback position. “We should make one simple demand:If taxpayer money is used, we want the same deal Buffett got.” (Buffett’s deal was preferred stock with 10% annual return and the right to convert to stock if the stock takes off after the bailout. Taxpayers should get the same deal.)WE NEED SOMETHING EASY TO UNDERSTAND!!!WE WANT THE SAME DEAL BUFFETT GOT! IF THEY DON’T PARTICIPATE, LET THEM FAIL!
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
But does your Congress-person/SEN have that clue?If not , maybe they should read Roubini’s plan.Sincerely,
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
I just did – again!The servers were not operating, so I went to the senator’s own home page to threaten them.
PeterJB • September 25th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Alas, but you should remember that backdating executive share-option agreements is a well known and accepted practice in the USA these days and has been for so long, it has become a Wall Street Tradition.Ho hum
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Hi Pete,I hope it is not quite “DONE” yet:The tentative accord would give the Bush administration just a fraction of the $700 billion it had requested up front, with half that total subject to a congressional veto, Capitol Hill aides said. But nothing appeared final. Amid several signs that conservatives were balking, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, emerged from the White House and said the announced agreement “is, obviously, no agreement.”
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
Honestly, I am positively surprised to the amount of involvement and rejection this bill has enticed. Even if the bill passed the house. Each one has two strong bargaining powers to ensure his/her representatives will vote with a big NO. At the end of each E-mail or conversation, clearly state that your next vote will not go for someone who did not vote NO. And that if the bill is passed, you will make sure the bailed out Wall Street firms will be reduced to dust – in case of a golden parachutes or “consultant” jobs promised by lobbyists. And you can live to your warnings.Paulson deserves a “thank you” after all.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
The tentative accord would give the Bush administration just a fraction of the $700 billion it had requested up front, with half that total subject to a congressional veto, Capitol Hill aides said. But nothing appeared final. Amid several signs that conservatives were balking, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, emerged from the White House and said the announced agreement “is, obviously, no agreement.”
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
video of the above:http://www.necn.com/Boston/Business/Sen-Shelby-There-is-no-agreement-on-bailout-plan/1222377221.html
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
For years Paulson, tells us everything is fine. Trust me. Then he declares an economic disaster is inevitable if in 2 weeks we don’t give him a blank check equal to 1/10 of the debt of the most powerful economy of the world.If Paulson was a CEO of a truly shareholder friendly company, the board of director would have requested his resignation for unspeakable incompetence. That’s what congress should do.”More than 150 prominent U.S. economists, including three Nobel Prize winners, urged Congress to hold off on passing a $700 billion financial market rescue plan until it can be studied more closely.In a letter yesterday to congressional leaders, 166 academic economists said they oppose Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan because it’s a “subsidy” for business, it’s ambiguous and it may have adverse market consequences in the long term. They also expressed alarm at the haste of lawmakers and the Bush administration to pass legislation. ” (Bloomberg)We’re not alone in calling Paulson’s bluff
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Bob: Thnaks. I followed the same layout that Dr Hussman used, without correcting or altering the way he listed assets and liabilities. I also had some questions about the exact format … but decided the basic point was being made, so I didn’t make any changes.PeteCA
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
I’m not sure where you’re living, but in my area most of our defaulters were Californians who thought they could make a quick buck “flipping” houses. The migrant Mexicans are doing just fine thanks.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
This is not an individual failing. This is mass marketing of loans to anyone so that they could be bundled and sold. The market loved these things so they needed more and more. Do you honestly believe that all of a sudden millions of uncredit worthy people were able to dupe banks/investment firms into giving them loans???? Totally not. The banks/investment firms did it because they could quickly unload them and not be responsible for them. They knew what they were doing.
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
166 academic economists, including 3 Nobel prizewinners, sent letter to Congress urging NOT to pass Paulson’s BAILOUT NOW proposal.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNKGD.bJwmRA&refer=homeIf they pass the package, shame on them. If the situation is so dire can’t they postpone their recess? I guess not. Holiday is more important than studying the largest bailout proposal in human history. Which, by the way, bails out bankers. Not the common citizen who, to add insult to injury, will have to pay for this.Ernst
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
The presidentially appointed Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., has voting power over cutting or raising interest rates and is the voting power in the Federal Open Market Committee. I believe its members should be included on the list.The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.2008 Members of the FOMCo Ben S. Bernanke, Board of Governors, Chairmano Timothy F. Geithner, New York, Vice Chairman (employee representing permanent member bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where all Fed decisions are made and whose board chair is Stephen Friedman)o Elizabeth A. Duke, Board of Governors (newly appointed)o Richard W. Fisher, Dallaso Donald L. Kohn, Board of Governorso Randall S. Kroszner, Board of Governorso Sandra Pianalto, Clevelando Charles I. Plosser, Philadelphiao Gary H. Stern, Minneapoliso Kevin M. Warsh, Board of Governorso two vacancies Board of GovernorsIn May, when the crisis was peaking, the Board consisted of Ben Bernanke (chairman) • Donald Kohn (vice-chairman) • Randall Kroszner • Frederic Mishkin • Kevin Warsh. Mishkin has since resigned and Duke appointed.It was The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System that announced in July that it had granted the Federal Reserve Bank of New York the authority to lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac…”intended to supplement the Treasury’s existing lending authority and to help ensure the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to promote the availability of home mortgage credit during a period of stress in financial markets.”Friedman, board chair of the New York Fed, is retired chairman of The Goldman Sachs Group and a current board member of The Goldman Sachs Group.http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Yes, his original proposal was such an overt testimony of arrogance, stupidity and selfishness that it had to hit a wall of rejection by any intelligently reflecting human being. It exposed the real intentions, lack of insight and selfishness of those in charge. We must thank him for that.
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
They should present alternative measures, did they?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Did WaMU just fail ?
aleister perdurabo • September 25th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
James Joyce from “Finnegans Wake”.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Stephanopoulos: Paulson Fears Deal May CollapseSeptember 25, 2008 6:05 PMABC News’ George Stephanopoulos Reports: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson fears the Wall Street bailout deal is falling apart after a chaotic White House meeting, sources say.Paulson walked into the room where Democrats were caucusing after today’s meeting at the White House and pleaded with them, “Please don’t blow this up.”Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chair of the House Financial Services Committee was livid saying, “Don’t say that to us after all we’ve been through!”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “We’re not the ones trying to blow this up; it’s the House Republicans.”"I know, I know,” Paulson replied.Democrats believe that House Republicans are torpedoeing the framework deal reached in the bipartisan agreement of principles released by the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.ABC News’ Jake Tapper contributed to this report.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Link:http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/stephanopoulo-6.html
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Alternative plans, they are urgently needed. It is not either Paulson’s plan or disaster. What alternatives are discussed?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Got an error page the first time, but it went through the second. I also noticed that between the last email I sent a few days ago and this one, that one of my senators had changed the drop-down subject box to include “Financial Markets Bail Out”.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
The economists who signed the letter represent various disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, behavioral and information economics, and game theory. They also span the political spectrum, from liberal to conservative to libertarian.Some lawmakers are already citing the letter as reason not to endorse the Paulson plan. Today Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, said he has “five pages of the leading economists in America that wrote to me and the leadership saying the Paulson plan is a bad plan. It will not solve problems. It will create more problems…”David I. Levine, a professor of economics at University of California-Berkeley, says the current plan being discussed has the wrong structure…Advocates for a rescue plan this week point to a seizing up of credit markets, reflected in elevated inter-bank lending rates, as reason for action. Some economists are unconvinced.“I suspect that part of what we’re seeing in the freezing up of lending markets is strategic behavior on the part of big financial players who stand to benefit from the bailout,” said David K. Levine, an economist at Washington University in St. Louis, who studies liquidity constraints and game theory.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
No Plan is better than Paulson’s Plan. As posted above from Michael Hudson on Counterpoint today:Behind this shift in legislative choice was the perception that no economy can keep up with the burden of debts growing at exponential rates faster than the economy itself is growing. No economy can grow at steady exponential rates; only debts can multiply in this way. That is why Mr. Paulson’s $700 billion giveaway to his Wall Street colleagues cannot work.
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
7:19 p.m. Dodd says Paulson, Bernanke to work on mortgage plan tonightOh no, these two that didn’t see problems coming are going to work out a quick solution? Are they asking the opinion of those who saw problems coming alreday years before and have been reflecting on possible solutions all that time?Curious to see the plan.
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Right
OuterBeltway • September 25th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Team II, Get Ready to Attack!Everybody, we’ve got to turn up the heat. The bailout wall’s starting to show cracks, but remember who you’re up against!We’re going to need reinforcements tomorrow. All you readers that have not yet picked up the phone to contact your congresspeople, get suited up now.Salvo 1: Tomorrow AM, how about everyone that hasn’t already called, hit them with the first wave of calls. Do it between 10 and Noon tomorrow (Friday). Wear out the phones.Salvo 2: Early afternoon, all you guys that have already hit ‘em once over the last day or two, save up your best lines, and lay it on them one more time between 1 and 3 PM on Friday.We need to bring this thing to a crescendo on Friday, so you loom large on their mind all weekend. Friday PM, bring your cell phone to happy hour, and pass it around. Let your friends in on the action. When Congressman Highhead walks out the door Friday night, make sure the last thing they see a smoking, molten glob where the phone was.Remember, politics is the contest between a few powerful people .vs. everyone else. To win, we need vast numbers of cranky, highly motivated voters ridin’ tall in the saddle. Scare the hell out of ‘em.www.house.gov (your representative)www.senate.gov (your two senators. call both!)Team II, we’ve softened ‘em up. Now put this baby to bed!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
What can’t be paid, won’t be paid.
Average Jane • September 25th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
@MOG – Your writings are so visceral. Please keep posting here. I thank you.
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
It may be partly strategic behavior, but if domino’s (like Lehman before) start falling, consequences may overrule any strategy. From there: solutions are urgently needed, alternative views should come on the table, but I see so little information on them. I’m baffled by their absence (unless I’m missing the information on them).
mammon • September 25th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
@Guest 18:08:32According to Dealbreaker:We will see if the 9:15 eastern conferencecall is a confirmation that JPMorganis getting the deposits and some branchesof Washington Mutual.
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
From Roubini RGE:Congress reaches tentative deal. Main components: restrictions on executive compensation, Equity stakes in return for bailout to recapitalize institutions and retain upside for taxpayers; $700bn released in installments: $250bn right away, $100bn later if results positive. Still unresolved: Bankruptcy reform to lower debt value of purchased mortgages. Separately, second stimulus package is also in the making for Main Street next to bailout for Wall Street.That’s at least some information on alternative forms of the plan.Let’s see what will come out…
Little Saver • September 25th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
hihihi, Paulson deserved this
dof • September 25th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
“Paulson walked into the room where Democrats were caucusing after today’s meeting at the White House and pleaded with them, “Please don’t blow this up.”Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chair of the House “Financial Services Committee was livid saying, “Don’t say that to us after all we’ve been through!”House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “We’re not the ones trying to blow this up; it’s the House Republicans.”"I know, I know,” Paulson replied.”Ha! The same free market, libertarian, trickle-down ideology that has sucked the wealth out common folks across the globe has been turned around to bite these thieves and their mouthpiece, Paulson, on the arse.Republicans are going to defend their liberty and demand their right to be robbed by a global cabal of wealthy elites. The irony.There is cosmic justice.Taxpayers are too big to fail!
commissar 4822 • September 25th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Don’t cross the American Taxpayer!
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Mad as Hell!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08
Wolf in the Wilds • September 25th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Washington Mutual just went under, and all debt/equity holders are wiped out. This has massive implications, especially for debt holders of entities like Countrywide. Remember that BoA have not guaranteed the debt of CFC. This allows them to let go the toxic waste and keep the good servicing entity of CFC and protect the depositors. Bond holders beware…..
guest • September 25th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
NYTimes: Bailout Plan StallsDon’t get cocky. Tomorrow’s going to be a war, “make no mistake”!
Mark • September 25th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
Just like Pentagon projects, Congress will ensure that every district has a stake in this. Once established this cancer will spread until it consumes us (like is happening with “defense” spending).
Commissar 4822 • September 25th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Mad as Hell!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08that was … refreshing
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
I’m reading the undernews at prorev.com (sam smith’s progressive review). This is from there:Carolyn Betts – I agree with every point in Bernie Sanders’ proposal but have a suggestion. I worked with lead counsel to the RTC (the government entity that served as receiver for defunct savings & loans) in designing and implementing the sealed bid auction program for non-performing commercial mortgage loans during the S&L crisis. I also worked for FHA’s lead financial advisor in carrying out the congressional mandate that HUD enter into “negotiated” sales of its nonperforming multifamily loans to state housing finance agencies.Based on what I saw in these contexts and in carrying out sales of pools of VA, Farmers Home and HUD performing and nonperforming single-family loans, both in auctions and in mortgage backed securities form, my conclusion is this: the Wall Street players made out like bandits, ultimately at taxpayer expense and borrowers were not helped.I suggest we try another tack, in addition to what Congressman Sanders proposes: support the borrowers of the troubled loans, not the owners of the loans.I believe there is a good chance that there is collateral and other fraud in these mortgage loan portfolios. I.e., loans with no properties to support them, multiple loans secured by a single property, loans used to launder money through government guarantees.This conclusion is based in part on the numbers, which don’t make sense, and upon observation of the number of HUD-insured loans that have gone into default before a single payment was received. If the lenders are just paid for these loans what is the theoretical value in a good market for these loans, assuming they are performing (i.e., above current market value), the lenders will get a windfall and be rewarded for making fraudulent and/or predatory loans.And the bailout as proposed will be a perfect way to hide the evidence of wrongdoing.Would it cost anywhere near $700 billion to have the government stand behind the borrowers’ obligations, in concert with a program to address unemployment/underemployment and health care issues that are the primary sources of financial problems that cause these loans to go into default? I think not. I would impose a condition that the existing “problem” home loans in portfolio, and maybe also related home equity loans, be marked to decent rates of interest and reamortized over 30 or 35 years, with write-off of penalty interest, late fees, etc., at lender expense. Then, to the extent the borrowers still cannot make their payments but want to stay in their homes, have the government funding program (with a local-level administrator not controlled by those who caused the current crisis) make up the difference. Perhaps the government gets a lien on the property for only the amount of the borrower’s shortfall after a period of time during which the health care fix and jobs programs can take effect (say, 18 months).I agree that the bailout bill will be a disaster, in so many ways I can’t even list them all. Allowing the market to crash, with all its consequences, would be better than giving away $700 billion plus to the perps that brought us to the brink of world economic collapse. The longer we keep putting fingers in the dikes to avoid the consequences of bad decisions, money laundering and theft by the corporados, the worse the eventual flood will be.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
According to the NYT, there’s a revolt among house repubs – they want to include a cut in the capital gains tax – can you FU#$ING believe that? Who benefits from that the most, I wonder? Would it be many of the same A–holes about to profit from oh, I dunno $700 BILLION of our tax dollars!!!!!!!!Is there a reason these guys have not been strung up yet?NO BAILOUTS AND NO DAMN TAX CUTS!!!!!
Mom • September 25th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
more found at prorev:Look at all the pretty colorscolorful spots comparing the size of bailouts
littleann • September 25th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
JPMorgan to acquire WaMu depositsBy Henny Sender, Francesco Guerrera and Julie MacIntosh in New YorkPublished: September 25 2008 22:33 | Last updated: September 26 2008 01:32JPMorgan Chase will acquire deposits and some branches of Washington Mutual following the takeover of the sixth biggest US bank by US regulators late on Thursday evening, people familiar with the matter said.US officials assumed control of WaMu after its shares lost nearly all their value in recent months in a clear sign that investors had lost confidence in efforts to auction off the bank to a competitor…
Mom of G • September 25th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
again from prorev.com’s undernewsDennis Kucinich’s plan -Reinstatement of the provisions of Glass-Steagall, which forbade speculationRe-regulation of the finance, insurance, and real estate industriesAccountability on the part of those who took the companies down: a) resignations of management b) givebacks of executive compensation packages c) limitations on executive compensation d) admission by CEO’s of what went wrong and how, prior to any government bailoutDemands for transparency a) with respect to analyzing the transactions which took the companies down b) with respect to Treasury’s dealings with the companies pre and post-bailoutAn equity position for the taxpayers a) some form of ownership of assetsSome credible formula for evaluating the price of the assets that the government is buying.A sunset clause on the legislationFull public disclosure by members of Congress of assets held, with possible conflicts put in blind trust.A ban on political campaign contributions from officers of corporations receiving bailoutsA requirement that 2008 cycle candidates return political contributions to officers and representatives of corporations receiving bailoutsAnd, most importantly, some mechanism for direct assistance to homeowners saddled with unreasonable or unmanageable mortgages, as well as protection for renters who have lived up to their obligation but fall victim to financial tragedy when the property they live in undergoes foreclosure.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
On CNBC, Marc Faber just called for resignation of Paulson and Bernanke and appoint Volcker as interim Fed Chairman.Sounds like a very good idea to me.
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
one more from pro rev, hope no one minds me sharing all these. I think they’re good reads to pass along:John Halle -What is missing from all of the discussion is any mention of how the plan will be paid for, as it is taken for granted that the average taxpayer is sure to be stuck with the ultimate cost of the $700 billion dollar price tag. But we don’t need to pay. And in this case we should not. For very few Americans have benefited from the giant casino which Wall Street has become over the past generation. Yes it has spun off enormous wealth but this has gone overwhelmingly to a small number at the top. . . It is time to make those who have danced their jigs on our backs pay the fiddler. And that means that not one dime of the bailout should come from the 99.9% of Americans who are the victims of Wall Street. All of it should come from the enormous store of assets controlled by the upper . 1%.The way to do this is by instituting a wealth tax – a tax on accumulated assets above $10 million. . . Eight-figure salaries have been routine in investment banking firms for two decades with Henry Paulson himself having earned $35 million in 2005 on the road to socking away accumulated assets of more than $700 million (not including stock options). His Democratic Party counterpart and predecessor at Goldman Sachs, key Obama advisor Robert Rubin, received similar compensation before moving to Citibank, where his wealth ballooned still further. Hedge fund operators, who have benefited from the absurd exemption on capital gains tax, have accumulated wealth beyond their dreams of avarice, one of them, John Paulson, of Paulson & Co. raking in a cool $3.7 billion for one years work. . . Simple arithmetic demonstrates that more than enough is available from these and other charter members of the plutocracy to fully finance the bailout, as well any additional items those with sufficiently resourceful minds would like to make part of the package.. . . Pushing for all of this, and more, should be the bottom line of progressives right now and we should be in the streets and in our representative offices demanding it.
MOTHER OF GOD • September 25th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
crgordon • September 25th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
very refreshing. thanks
Mark • September 25th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Robert Rubin! He was essential in getting the Glass-Steagall Act repealed. And he’s now Obama’s economic adviser. We’re so screwed…
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
US Economists rebel against bailout, and send a signed letter to both houses:FacultyTo the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America’s dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.Signed (updated at 9/25/2008 8:30AM CT)Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)Adler Michael (Columbia University)Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)Barry Brian (University of Chicago)Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)Becker Charles M. (Duke University)Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)Beim David (Columbia University)Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)Bisin Alberto (New York University)Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)Boldrin Michele (Washington University)Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)Buera Francisco J. (UCLA)Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)Cochrane John (University of Chicago)Coleman John (Duke University)Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)Fuchs William (University of Chicago)Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)Gabaix Xavier (New York University)Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)Harris Milton (University of Chicago)Hart Oliver (Harvard University)Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)Heaton John (University of Chicago)Heckman James (University of Chicago – Nobel Laureate)Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)Hite Gailen (Columbia University)Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)Israel Ronen (London Business School)Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)Kahn Matthew (UCLA)Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)Klenow Pete (Stanford University)Koch Paul (University of Kansas)Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)Levine David K.(Washington University)Levy David M. (George Mason University)Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)Lucas Robert (University of Chicago – Nobel Laureate)Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)Martin Ian (Stanford University)Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)Mian Atif (University of Chicago)Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)Morse Adair (University of Chicago)Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)Ohanian Lee (UCLA)Pagliari Joseph (Unive
rsity of Chicago)Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)Paul Evans (Ohio State University)Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)Rampini Adriano (Duke University)Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)Robinson David (Duke University)Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)Ruud Paul (Vassar College)Safford Sean (University of Chicago)Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)Scharfstein David (Harvard University)Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)Seru Amit (University of Chicago)Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)Smith David C. (University of Virginia)Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)Strahan Philip (Boston College)Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)Witte Mark (Northwestern University)Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)
Ernst • September 25th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Let us not forget that the financial sector has been the largest contributor to congressmen campaigns. Now they are collecting their dues.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Luxury goods retailer, Neiman Marcus, famous marketer of assorted holiday items, says its quarterly loss more than doubled from a year earlier and offers a bleak outlook for the holidays as the wealthy and upper-middle-class cut back, according to today’s Wall Street Journal.Neiman posted a $35.7 million loss for its fiscal quarter ended Aug. 2.Saks reported a 5.9% decline in August same-store sales and a $32 million loss for its fiscal quarter ended Aug. 2.Nordstrom Inc. cut it’s outlook for the second half in mid-August.Tiffany & Co. said same-store sales in the U.S. declined 4% in the quarter ended July 22.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
China going the other way – it just approved short selling, so I guess short sellers can now move from the US to China
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajvJdZpdH3LQ&refer=home
No Friend of WaMu • September 25th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Where is Friend of WaMu? Maybe already cracked out the champaigne. Can’t say I’m sorry either. They directly called me a money launderer and held up my deposit to cover utilities after I sold my house and was living in a town that only had a PO. Takes one to suspect one, I guess.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Good for you. Okay. I’ll do it.sue
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
You are missing information. The gist of some of the plans (I’m too lazy to find them right now) is that rather than reduce the bank’s debt by taking the toxic waste off their hands, we leave it with them and increase their capital to deal with it. Since that capital increase is good money, we know what it’s worth. One approach is to take shares in the bank’s stock at the current market price equal to the value of that bailout.Simple, clean, not much room for shenanigans. Exactly what the banks don’t want.
artichoke • September 25th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
I’m not especially curious to see their next iteration. It will involve cheating like everything from those guys does. Because they want to cheat, that’s their entire goal.Go with the sort of plan the economists recommend. They are collectively knowledgeable and, just as important, disinterested. Furthermore, according to my understanding, they are right and Paulson / Bernanke are wrong.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Yep, that’s fairly accurate!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Test
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
So the Republicans are blocking it, thank God, but for what a reason! All I can think of is Matthew 23:23 which describes both the Demicans and the Republicrats here:Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye pay tithe of mint and anise and cummin, and have omitted the weightier matters of the law, judgment, mercy, and faith: these ought ye to have done, and not to leave the other undone.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
If you’re set on a bailout then NR’s plan is better than the rest; however, the crux of the problem is our unjust, unequal financial system which is essentially set up like a Las Vegas casino: the house always wins!How many generations must pass where the people are told and believe the same things: not enough money for healthcare, education, social security, etc; But think, there is always UNLIMITED money for WAR and CORPORATE BAILOUTS and all the while, the top 1% of this country become wealthier and wealthier. If education is to cease to be an oxymoron, then the “sheeple” must begin the process of critical thinking and see what’s really going on! IQB (I Quit Believing)
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Now we know why Paulson is in such a hurry: He wants to put his hand over the papers while Congress signs on the dotted line. Betts knows — she was there — and you can bet your last dollar Frank and Dodd know, too. Here it is in a nutshell. Says Betts:I believe there is a good chance that there is collateral and other fraud in these mortgage loan portfolios. I.e., loans with no properties to support them, multiple loans secured by a single property, loans used to launder money through government guarantees.This conclusion is based in part on the numbers…If the lenders are just paid for these loans what is the theoretical value in a good market for these loans, assuming they are performing (i.e., above current market value), the lenders will get a windfall and be rewarded for making fraudulent and/or predatory loans.
2cents • September 25th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
The shouts I’m hearing on the street are that constituents are demanding that Paulson, Bernake and Cox be replaced pronto or House members will find themselves replaced Pronto!What are people saying in your neighborhod?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
I know they’re dumb: but this dumb? We’d better check it out and see where the NYT got it: do you have the link?
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Thank you, Jane. That means a lot more to me than you know. You wouldn’t believe the abuse I have endured for simply speaking of equal pay for equal sacrifice/equal work. I so hope I am planting seeds in people’s minds. I never know if anyone agrees – no one will say, though no one will point out where they think I am getting it wrong. I truly believe we, this tragi-comedic species, are so far from our natural senses that we have brought our geno-sadistic selves to the precipice. I am watching closely the news from especially Pakistan, and Lebanon Border, Russia, South America, Israel with new thermo-nukes, etc etc. I do suspect (I’m really almost certain) that war is to follow this financial crisis – it’s the pattern followed by the world’s most wealthpowerful ones.I see nothing to do to counter global insanity and the globalocal emergency we are in, but to keep saying and saying the good sense of peace and plenty for all through the pay justice we keep trying to do an end run around.We are not going to win this game. Justice bats last, and there is no heavier hitter.People still are convinced we have to give our money away to make it work for commerce, but that’s a lie. People are still convinced pay justice will mean less money for them, when it will in fact enormously enrich everyone in quality of life, and will give 99% of people more money.Education must prevail, or catastrophe will.Why is it that people have never said: “Hey, I work as hard as you, in fact I work harder than you – you can’t have any more than me.” Why has overwealth never been universally condemned by all? Why has no one ever worked out that; transaction shifts money from earners to non-earners? Why is no one even interested in the fact that transaction automatically steals earnings from earners and gives them to non-earners?I may die still wondering those ‘whys’, but my children will know their mother fought for them ceaselessly and fiercely, with everything she had.small consolation for them. sigh.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
MY DEAR COMPANIONS!!there’s talk if the bailout plan is not agreed uponTHEY the PIGMEN will intentionally tanked the market, could be tomorrowmaybe thats the reason for todays rally so the sell off will seen as dramaticif its true then Warren Buffet talk of Pearl Harbour could be the enigma coded translation!!!!!!if its true, we will be able to know who the FU**** is selling them!!!
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
personally i hope they do that..that’s the opening for an investigation
Mother of God in Heaven we be dumb • September 25th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
I find it absolutely mind-boggling that people don’t simply demand the money be taken back off the wealthpower giants who caused all this misery. I can’t even wrap my mind around the fact we are going to PAY THESE UBER-RICH FOR HAVING STOLEN FROM US THE VERY MEANS TO SURVIVE.
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Shame on me
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
I’m repeating this from an upthread reply to Jane;I find it absolutely mind-boggling that people don’t simply demand the money be taken back off the wealthpower giants who caused all this misery. I can’t even wrap my mind around the fact we are going to PAY THESE UBER-RICH FOR HAVING STOLEN FROM US THE VERY MEANS TO SURVIVE.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Saw this sign with following article:No Bail OutNo $700 BillionNo Loan Sharks(Rochester, N.Y.) – A protest started about 5 p.m. Thursday in front of the Federal Building on State Street downtown.Dozens of protestors represented organizations around the city as they marched carrying signs to protest the $700 billion bailout. As they marched, they encouraged drivers to honk their horns in agreement.Many of them were on their cell phones, calling a toll free number. The goal was to express their opinions to Congress.Anti-bailout protesters marched in 100 other cities across the nation.Organizers from several different groups, including Metro Justice, emphasized how important it is for local people to get involved.Organizers said even if there is a decision from Congress on the bailout, they’re going to keep calling…keep using the toll free number to call congress and let their voices be heard.http://www.13wham.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=bc9e1711-37fe-451a-a0e5-dbbf53a60fce&rss=102There were three protests going on near me in San Jose.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Remember how the police hunt down known bank robbers to get uncovered loot, even after they’ve served time in prison if the money hasn’t been recovered? That theme is repeated a million times in detective stories. So what gives? A class distinction among criminals?
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Since when do slaves ask their masters to pay them for some of the work they perform on their behalf, let alone sharing the proceeds?The masters used to be make Eunuchs out of their slaves. The only difference now is that today’s slaves are morally and intellectually castrated.
Miss Italy • September 25th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
I was in Wall Street today protesting the Paulson’s plan.It’s sad that these events are easily hijacked by nuts that ask for the revolution and similar craziness and that there were so few people (a 1000 probably less than more), but it was refreshing…..Any chance that more will join the protest?
2cents • September 25th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Wow! I’ve never seen such widespread discontent! The sleeping giant is awakening!
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
FW is the most important book ever written. If the world knew what JJ was doing in that book, it would save the world.But it would take me a month and volumes of time I don’t have, to explain that remark so anybody could understand it.I am the hen who scratched the letter up from the dungheap, aleister. glad to meet you.”Lead, kindly fowl! They always did: ask the ages. What bird has done yesterday man may do next year, be it fly, be it moult, be it hatch, be it agreement in the nest. For her socioscientific sense is sound as a bell, sir, her volucrine automutativeness right on normalcy: she knows, she just feels she was kind of born to lay and love eggs (trust her to propagate the species and hoosh her fluffballs safe through din and danger!)”
L. Morgan Stanislaw, III • September 25th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
I was there also. In a derby.
taxpaying sahm • September 25th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
My husband and I demonstrated earlier this evening on the other coast. Took our son with us and taught him about standing up for himself and his rights. I’ll be leaving another round of messages with our reps & senators again tomorrow.
foo • September 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
It was a poor move to stop regulating lending practices – what just unfolded was a [rather bad] example of what can happen to a market economy without good oversight.I agree that maybe there needs to be a cap on the amount a company can charge interest – it’s one of the causes of this financial problem. Furthermore, those that have been struck by this problem (struggling or ex-homeowners) need some sort of debt aid. But, the steps outlined in this article are right on the nail, and therefore nothing further needs to be said about this financial problem except that I hope our government listens.Also, there are other problems that have appeared that spell doom-and-gloom for a market economy that many economists would actually argue against. That is because there are flaws in some of what is accepted and taught in economic studies. These are also becoming evident with our economy and we need to learn from it.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
“…one has to be at least a bit skeptical about the idea that government policymakers gambling with other people’s money are better at judging the value of complex financial instruments than are private investors gambling with their own.” — Greg Mankiw, Harvard University economisthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/25/AR2008092504531.html?hpid=topnews
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Last I heard it’s not finally decided nor written up yet. I am eagerly awaiting the final wording, and we’d better parse every single word of it. Any lawyers in here?
A.J. • September 25th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Is the main problem that nobody wants to loan money?That the credit markets will ‘freeze up’?What does a credit market locking up entail andwhat are it’s consequences?Can it ‘lockup’ briefly and then unlock oronce its locked up there is no way to restart it?
Average Jane • September 25th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
It is the mothers of this world who fight the hardest and fiercest. Mine certainly did, up to the very moment she died in a hospital bed, gorked out on morphine, to her very last breath. Our fellow poster, Afa, knows this of which I speak. Keep fighting, all.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Thank you, Hazelton. I also am deeply saddened to see the pretigious work of Dr. Roubini and those who comment here insulted in this way.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Yes, these three must go.
Average Jane • September 25th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
@ Mother of God – see my reply to your post upthread.@ Medic – where are you, sir? I for one miss you.@ LB – excellent topics on your blog; I encourage all to go over and read.
gas • September 25th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
try this link:http://truemajority.wiredforchange.com/o/8/t/107/event/attendTellafriend.jsp?event_KEY=342&key=2603805Follow the prompts for a ‘protest’ in a town/city near you.Went to Courthouse here in Eugene,Or, today (5-6:30). About 50 unorganized folks showed up with signs to show the rush hour workers. Not crazies, real people.I was amazed that 95% of the thousands of folks heading home from work whooped and hollered, thumbed-up and honked, in support. (My sign said simply, “No BailOut for the Banksters”.)I think if ongoing rallies and ‘come join us’ signs were posted, huge numbers of folks would turn out within a week.
A.J. • September 25th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Why doesn’t congress immediately call uponall the experts they can to devise alternativesolutions?They clearly are not experts and are wasting timetrying to debate the giveaway or devise their own solution.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
I am living in California and anyone who checks out the demographics of California can verify my point. And, if you have kept up with your California news, you may also verify my point from the many published articles on “flippers” – on those who had up to 10 houses with imploding mortgages after spending only a few years in this country.
Anonymous • September 25th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Hans Jorg Rudloff, Barclays Capital chairman, said: “Anyone looking at the money markets would come to the conclusion that we are one minute before a terminal heart attack. Therefore the rescue package will pass. There is no choice.”http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb1ae49e-8b2c-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c.html
AfA • September 25th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
It is amazing, how that people who foresaw this brewing crisis, as well as those who felt it, like the ones here on this board after continuous warnings of the coming “train wreck” and that we should rush to find a solution before it is too late, were being ridiculed because “it was not that bad” and “it’s not Armageddon”.A total Reversal in sentiments.Now pundits are screaming “the sky is falling” everywhere they go and are rushing to pass something, anything. While people on boards like this one are keeping a relatively calm and positive attitude, “it will not be as bad as Paulson is threatening”, “we need to take our time to work out a feasible solution” and are calling for citizenship participation and involvement.I have never felt so proud to be sitting in the front row watching and, from time to time, commenting on this distasteful movie being played, for little the producer and its crew take note and notice from this failure.HO MEH – indeed
Wolf in the Wilds • September 25th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
They have. Actually there are a few floating around. Roubini has one. So does Hussman. There are alternatives. Unfortunately, the alternatives all have punitive consequences on bank equity holders, preference shares and sub-ordinated bonds holders and unsecured bond holders. Paulson doesn’t want these guys to be punished , so he wants the taxpayers to bear the cost. Reap the benefits/profits, socialise the costs…..
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Leave it to the feckless Democrats to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. They are on the wrong side of this thing, instead of demanding Paulson & Bernacke’s resignations and telling the administration:”Your unfettered free markets created this mess, now let them(and the bankruptcy courts) clean it up.” Instead, they are negotiating with a reviled regime over the biggest heist in American history. Also interesting is JPM timing on WAMU. Did they jump the gun, expecting the bailout to go through so they could rake the deposits and leave the trash with the Treasury?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Miss Italy, I think that was a good turn out. Really, I do. In fact, at this stage, and with such short notice, I think it was fantastic. Any videos?
A.J. • September 25th, 2008 at 11:37 pm
So if congress pass an alternative solution,one with proper punitive consequences, canPaulson or Bernanke do anything about it?
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Yeats:Turning and turning in the widening gyreThe falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhereThe ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity.Surely some revelation is at hand;Surely the Second Coming is at hand.The Second Coming! Hardly are those words outWhen a vast image out of Spiritus MundiTroubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desertA shape with lion body and the head of a man,A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,Is moving its slow thighs, while all about itReel shadows of the indignant desert birds.The darkness drops again; but now I knowThat twenty centuries of stony sleepWere vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Wolf in the Wilds • September 25th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Yes. It is ironic that the ones who see this coming and know of what is to come is rejecting the plan. That is probably because we had more time to understand the issues and also realise what actually needs to be done to get Ameerica back on its feet. It cannot be done without pain and suffering, but that is the price to be paid for the mistakes of the past. Americans have to make sure that the COUNTRY comes out of this crisis stronger than before, and more stable. Not the banks. Not the fat cats.Although I am in the industry, I am disgusted by what Paulson and Bernanke are trying to pull on the American tax payer. Risk takers, like me, know that we reap the profits when they get it right and pay the price when they get it wrong. Its part and parcel of what we do. And as a true and blue capitalist, I totally oppose this plan. Letting risk takers get away from paying the price of taking excessive risk is unacceptable. There will be no markets, balance going forward. We need the potential to LOSE MONEY to ensure risks are managed realistically and properly. No bailout.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
First we need to determine who “we” are who need the rescue? If he means the fat cats on Wall Street and that the people have no choice, well, it seems like the people think they do.
PhilT • September 25th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
…A decade ago, when Japan’s government was devising schemesto deal with its own mountain of bad debt, local bankers used to joke:”You can put rotten meat in a freezer, but it doesn’t remove the rot.It just takes away the smell – for a while.” Wall Street would do wellto remember that now.
Entire FT Article => Putting dodgy assets in deep freeze will not remove the rot
Mother of God • September 25th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
Guest, I will thank you not to make any more disingenuous attempts to make readers believe that I have EVER insulted or disrespected the good Mr. Nouriel Roubini in any way! There are enough LIES going around in the world now. On a trillion dollar bet you couldn’t find a single word in any of my posts that insult or disrespect Mr. Roubini! Your attack is inexplicable, Guest.now @ HS – the site I linked has the info on the Twain Archimedes. There has been questioning if it’s really his piece, but I’m convinced, as any other writer would have had to anticipate other things he wrote later. It’s a brilliant piece, and i sure wish more people had THAT big-picture perspective.
Guest • September 25th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Washington Mutual Just Collapsed. One has to be truly stupid to pour money into this stock market.
A.J. • September 26th, 2008 at 12:06 am
$700 billion dolars can createjobs for 14 million people at50 thousand dollars a year.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:06 am
It’s clear that that these fools don’t understand how US capitalism actually works. They think that it is all about “free markets”. Do you think they understand BWII? HAHA!But the gov’t gets what it deserves. If they want to keep them dumb and ideological then they will get a dumb and ideological reaction. Another proof that the Republicans are speeding the demise of the US empire.Darkie
A.J. • September 26th, 2008 at 12:08 am
or 13,999,999 $50k jobsplus a spell checker andeducation for A.J.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:10 am
This unfolding drama is becoming much like a Greek Tragedy Amid GOP revolt, bailout deal breaks downWASHINGTON – A Republican rebellion stalled government efforts Thursday to avoid economic meltdown, a chaotic turnaround that disrupted the choreography of an extraordinary White House meeting meant to show joint resolve from the president, the political parties and the presidential candidates. Instead, the summit broke up so bitterly that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson got on one knee before Democratic leaders in a theatrical attempt to salvage talks.
A.J. • September 26th, 2008 at 12:11 am
How long will it take to save $700 billionif they stopped the war in Iraq?
AfA • September 26th, 2008 at 12:15 am
That is what we have been thought in Schools and rethought in the market.In the world of a religious person, Paulson’s plan bailing out Wall Street firms is equivalent to discovering during the Judgment Day that Hell does not exist and that it was just a trick to make as many people endure believing and worshiping as possible.One question thought. Does the following summarizes the two alternatives we face:Either save the credit/money markets by screwing the Treasury market OR safeguard the Treasury market and take the risk of a frozen/collapsing money market.Is there an in-between alternative?
A.J. • September 26th, 2008 at 12:17 am
If they want $700 billion dollars fromtax payers, shouldn’t we ask for 20%down, collateral, and a lien on the title.Anything less would be stupid, like whatthem bankers did.
Mark • September 26th, 2008 at 12:31 am
Can some one please enlighten me as to why the following statement is true?From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEvb987RgbsQ&refer=homeSome very creditworthy issuers are only able to issue overnight rather than the more typical 30 days or longerIs someone keeping issuers from issuing for longer? Or is it, as I suspect, that issuers don’t WANT to issue for longer than overnight? Wouldn’t this suggest that that’s how the market is operating? Prices are going up!Interesting also is that fact that what is being impacted are two of the most abusive sectors: automotive and financial. These sectors represent the greatest wastes of energy… It’s a clear sign that the realities of energy are starting to set in; Mother Nature (natural laws) are reverting back toward balance.Soon we shall see a big hit to the airline industry.
AfA • September 26th, 2008 at 12:32 am
This is one of the moments when I want to cry and laugh very loudly.I would entrust Paulson if he is able to pull Excalibur from the Stone with a bare hand without destroying the rock nor hurting any body with it, reads: if he is able to pull the sh!t out of the constipated Charging Bull (aka Wall Street Bull) without killing the Bull and without spreading the sh!t all over the place and without wakening the sleepy Bear.Guess who is Merlin.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:42 am
yeah, what happened to the “economy is resilient” mantra
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:44 am
Does Obama knows Robert Rubin was the architect who repealed Glass-Steagall Act and has produced this economic crisis?http://my.opera.com/richardinbellingham/blog/show.dml/1796860What a sad situation in American politics.
Anonymous • September 26th, 2008 at 12:45 am
Yes, the talks broke down, as EXACTLY I had predicted in my reply to Pete. These political animals only care about being in power, and right now they know they can’t vote for this.
AfA • September 26th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Here is my explanation waiting for a better one.The fact that corporations (GM, GE, Ford ..) are tapping the “revolving loans” is a very rational and a very predictable reaction. Even if these corporations would not really need these loans right now, they are behaving on the expectation credit lines will drain, and credit costs will rise.In simple terms and without any order of importance, issuers, banks, are:- tapped and need cash in hand to weather the credit storm.- unable to make any forecasts in terms of the shape of the yield curve going forward.- predicting increased credit risk that is magnified through longer durations.- lacking visibility, transparency and trust about who is in more trouble then themselves.I think the more appropriate term is “issuers COULD NOT issue for longer than overnight”
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:50 am
Bernanke?
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 1:27 am
See? Is it any wonder that the public no longer believes or has any faith in Wall Street and has no interest in helping it come out of this mess? Nothing is going to change. Even when America is on its knees, Wall Street continues to operate in a clandestine manner based on greed.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 1:40 am
Ya’ll think this is bad now? Wait ’til the jobs numbers come out next week….why do you think DC is pushing this so hard and fast?
Mark • September 26th, 2008 at 2:47 am
AfA, there’s clearly some validity in what you say. But if you could loan to a very stable corporation you’d likely do it. These aren’t stable corporations, they’re teetering. This is the point. Everyone is starting to see that our consumptive transportation-based ethos is heading us toward a brick wall. We all know that a BIG shift has to take place: this goes back to what someone has been repeating, that the problem is a lack of leadership; yes, the big guns don’t know which way to point their capital out of fear that they’ll get it wrong and crash; they’re looking for leadership (usually legislation that pushes something forward, and usually comes with some nice subsidies).
L. Morgan Stanislaw, III • September 26th, 2008 at 2:58 am
A week overdue. UBS and Wachovia are next.
Alessio • September 26th, 2008 at 3:01 am
Roubini’s plan is well conceived, but has 2 shortcomings….who is going to choose the banks to be shut down???? The Government????Second. If some banks go bankrupt, what are going to be the effects on the $62 trillion CDS market??I believe that it is better to transform this OTC market in a real and regulated market with liquidating positions at the end of every day, before selectively saving the banks. In this way, we could immediately estimate the cost of Roubini’s rescue plan.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 4:33 am
and then the regional banks are next after that
Anonymous • September 26th, 2008 at 4:40 am
vote Obama
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 4:41 am
Ah, see I’m in New Mexico. We have had quite a few Californians driving up the housing prices in the last five years because they figured they could sell their house in CA, and use the money for downpayments on multiple houses in NM, live in one and rent the others for a couple of years and then sell them at a profit when the homes started to become bothersome as rentals. Unfortunately for us New Mexicans, we ended up importing several CA gangs, and when housing prices started going back down, our CA investors were stuck with houses no one would buy. So we literally have whole subdivisions that are now empty or in forclosure. I guess I haven’t had the inspiration to keep up with CA news.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 8:28 am
So if the Paulson bailout goes thru, it will now bail out JPM as well as Warren Buffett!
Alex Grey • September 26th, 2008 at 9:20 am
A force-five hurricane blowing out of Wall Street – parallels to 1929.Galbraith on the stock market Crash of 1929:”Had the economy been fundamentally sound in 1929 the effect of the stock market crash might have been small…. But business in 1929 was not sound; on the contrary it was exceedingly fragile. It was vulnerable to the kind of blow it received from Wall Street. Those who have emphasised this vulnerability are obviously on strong ground. Yet when a greenhouse succumbs to a hailstorm something more than a passive role is normally attributed to the storm. One must accord similar significance to the typhoon which blew out of lower Manhattan in October 1929″ (Galbraith, J.K (1966), The Great Crash, 1929 Hammondsworth: Penguin Books p. 204)While the nature of the crisis in Wall Street is differs in character – a crisis in the financial system rather than a stock market crash – to my mind the two are akin. The stock market is one area of our financial system that is more regulated today than in 1929. The same cannot be said for our financial system – hence the crisis is emerging first in the financial system because that is where the greatest excesses were. However the hurricane blowing out of Wall Street will gather momentum, first engulfing the stock market as it then proceeds to topple the already unsound U.S. economy.
Guest • September 26th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
I also include the following individuals plundering the Americans by massive securitization, malinvestment, manipulation of the market, control of The Fed and Department of Treasurey of the United States, and causing massive dislocation of their Investment Banks and American financial system and demise of American Economy. These are:1) Stanley O’Neal of Merrill Lynch2) John Thain of Merrill Lynch3) Henry Paulson of Goldman Sacks4) James Cayne of Bear Stearns5) John Mack of Morgan Stanley6) Philips of Purcell of Morgan Stanley7) Richard Fuld of Lehman Borthers.Please see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a96vQtgKS3BM&refer=exclusiveOnce a changes takes place in political process of the United States, they should be thorougly investigated and brought to justice for their criminality and appropriately punished for their deeds.
Guest • September 27th, 2008 at 9:06 am
This plan is still grossly unfair. It punishes those of us who have been fiscally responsible. Most of us who have been responsible will manage well enough during a recession or depression. Were is our incentive?Here are some ideas:1) give every renter who has been waiting on the sidelines for this insanity to end, an REO home at it’s 1992 price. The home should come from any bank that participates in the bailout.2) Instead of increasing taxes, relocate them. Need to withdraw from Iraq immediately (to hell with the supposed consequences). Can’t pay those overpriced teachers their cushy retirement packages? Tough shit for them.3) Give homeowners who don’t participate in any handouts some incentive like a future real estate tax cut.4) REDUCE SPENDING.5) REDUCE SPENDING.6) REDUCE SPENDING.
Kwalla101 • September 28th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
PUT PEOPLE TO WORK; FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING AND RAISE THE VALUE ON HOMES… here’s how:What we NEED to do is to stimulate the economy by spending public money to do “green remodeling” (adding insulation and other energy saving features/updates to buildings and also installing site-appropriate alternative energy generation: solar, wind). Such measures applied to both public and private property would:- get money in the hands of skilled construction laborers who are out of work;- reduce energy consumption and thus CO2 production as well as lower the utility bills at a time when energy prices are rising exponentially; and finally- raise the value of residential and commercial real estate.This is a WIN-WIN-WIN situation all around. This has been done in a very limited fashion via tax credits in the 2005 Energy Bill– a number of which have been renewed or are currently slated to be renewed– but we MUST increase the funding level dramatically. If the bottom line is that we need to inject significant public money into the economy in order to divert any of several different great depression-like scenarios, let us do it in a way that maximizes the benefits.
SICK of you uninformed bloggers • October 1st, 2008 at 1:19 am
What a great idea, instead of freeing up the clogged credit markets, let’s bailout the stupid homeowners who overpaid for property and lied about their income to get loans they could never afford. i am sure that’s wal streets fault not the mortage banker or real estate agents, or heaven forbid, the jerks who signed the loan agreement. We should let them walk away from THEIR financial obligations. that’s a great concept. remind me to borrow money from you some time.
D. W, • October 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Exactly, Why should the competent and prudent citizens- the backbone of the nation- again be called upon to bail out the incommpetent, imprudent, the custom suited hustlers and the greedy. Unfortunately the government is composed of those in the latter categories so why should we expect anything different. Do you honestly think that this congress could make a sophisticated differential diagnosis of the economic problems and implement a meaningful policy for its correction. Roubinis thoughtful analysis and slightly unfair solution ( to the lifelong prudent) is beyond the collective inelligence of our elected class and their need for political expediency. As for me, every investment that I make from now on will be predicated by the knowledge that the government will always make wrong and harmful decisions, and that the great American experiment in personal liberty is circling the drain.
ScouseHouse • October 20th, 2008 at 2:35 am
THE RIGHT-WING LOBBY GROUPS HAVE WON. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE AMERICA. The country has been turned into a Banana Republic.- RGE’s overly complex musings are futile – he’s kidding himself if he reckons anyone in power will listen – they’re all on The Lobby Payroll and are captive to too many favours to stop this bail out give-away. It is surprising RGE does not acknowledge this.- Bush will wait until after the November election then direct Paulson to buy toxic assets with the remaining TARP $500 billion using Bernanke’s hold-to-maturity pricing. It’ll all be a done-deal by January and the swearing in of a new president. Bush will use the excuse of “too important to wait”.- the nation’s fiscal wealth will be basically plundered.- the wars will consume what remains.- the new president will not be able to CHANGE anything – no health care reforms, no changes to social security, no “new deal” because there is no more money; exactly what certain right wingers wanted. Baby boomer retirement plans have been squandered in the process.- America will continue a “sink or swim” culture and maintain a poor under-class to serve others. Business as usual.
Mogar • January 5th, 2009 at 3:17 am
Mr. Roubini, you may have outlined an excellent way to resolve the current credit crisis, however it will not prevent the next and the next and the next. My point being that I do not think there is any way to save the current fiat currency, fractional banking system. This system requires an inflationary bubble to be blown somewhere in the economy at all times. It is by definition an unstable system that has for the entire human history always ended the same way, in ruin. Granted this monstrosity has been with us in its purest for over 37 years, but just because they managed to stretch out its inevitable demise does not mean it can be saved. If you are very, very good at spinning plates you can keep them going for a long time but eventually you will have too many to spin and they all come crashing down. History tells us that fiat systems end in the same way they come crashing down. I honestly wish I were as wrong as I could be with this opinion, I have a lot of people that I care about that will be harmed by this, but that does not change the facts.
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