Global Recession Watch: Recoupling rather than Decoupling
As already analyzed and discussed in detail in this blog there is now fresh evidence that at least a dozen major economies and some emerging markets are at risk of a recessionary hard landing. The list includes:
- United States
- United Kingdom
- New Zealand
- Some other South-Europe emerging markets
Moreover, even in the rest of the Eurozone (Germany, France, etc,) there is now evidence of a sharp growth deceleration as industrial production is falling in all of the Eurozone, business confidence is down, consumer confidence is down and retail sales are flat or falling.
Indeed, while Q1 was strong, in Q2 the Eurozone and Japan will show weaker GDP growth (closer to 0% than 1%) than the US where the temporary drug of $100 billion of tax rebates is preventing for a few months consumption from going into a free fall.
So while we will not experience a global recession we will get close to one as the US will have a severe recession, Japan is entering one, a third of Europe will go into a recession, the rest of Europe will have a severe growth slowdown, the rest of the G-10 advanced countries is sharply slowing down and a few emerging market economies are entering a recession. And if the advanced economies are sharply slowing down or entering a recession the idea that China, India, the other BRICs and emerging markets can happily decouple from these recession or sharply slowing economies is far fetched. Trade links, commodity price links, financial links, credit crunch effects, sudden stops of capital and reversal of capital inflows, currency effects and business/consumer confidence channels will all imply a significant growth slowdown in other emerging market economies and across the world.
Already two years ago this forum argued that the US recession would lead to recoupling rather than decoupling. While the growth recoupling has taken time the financial recoupling has been immediate given the high correlation between global equity markets. Out of the 23 components of the global MSCI equity index 22 country indices are already into bear territory (-20% or worse) with the only exception being Canada. So until now we had financial recoupling. But as 12 economies are entering into a recession and many others are slowing we are also starting to see economic growth recoupling.
RECESSION WATCH-Corporate confidence crumbles, growth risks rise
Wed Jul 30, 2008 8:06am EDT Reuters
Global economic confidence is rapidly unravelling as
corporate profits shrink and successive data releases reveal a
deteriorating outlook for growth, rivalling inflation as the
principal risk for investors.
Figures released on Wednesday showed economic sentiment in
the euro zone skidded in July to its lowest since March 2003,
while Japanese factory output shrank in April-June for the
second straight quarter. In the US, applications for home
mortgages fell to their slowest pace since December 2000
The deterioration in the growth outlook comes as
expectations for inflation stay high, according to the latest
Reuters survey of opinions on the outlook for G7 economies.
To see a selection of stories on the subjects of recession
and inflation risks, click on the codes in brackets below.
30/7 Euro zone business morale sinks, outlook grim [ID:nL0708216]
30/7 Japan factory output shrinks, GDP may follow [ID:nT109265]
30/7 US mortgage applications slowest since 2000 [ID:nN29380214]
30/7 Swiss KOF indicator at 5yr low on consumer woe[ID:nL0674999]
30/7 German engineering orders dip on foreign demand [nL0646678]
30/7 Spanish retail sales suffer record fall [ID:nL0632469]
30/7 Australia home approvals slip further in June[ID:nSYD156688]
29/7 US home prices fell at record pace in May-S&P[ID:nN29315536]
29/7 US July consumer confidence up from 16-yr low[ID:nN29511811]
29/7 UK mortgage approvals hit record low in June [ID:nL9210791]
29/7 German inflation stays at 15-year high [ID:nL9174360]
29/7 French consumer conf at low, industry gloomy [ID:nL9182545]
29/7 Japan jobless rise to hurt shrinking spending [ID:nT264987]
29/7 UK retail sales post record fall in July-CBI [ID:nL9233788]
28/7 Spanish house sales dive, prices to follow [ID:nL8559152]
24/7 German IFO index in sharpest drop since 9/11 [ID:nL24100806]
24/7 Italy biz morale at 7-yr low, recession seen [ID:nL24102032]
24/7 U.S. existing home sales volume at 10-yr low [ID:nN24503749]
30/7 Lloyds TSB profit dives 70%, sees bad debts up[ID:nL0580177]
30/7 Daiwa posts 78.5% drop in quarterly net profit [ID:nT310836]
30/7 Michelin H1 profits fall, cuts 2008 forecast [ID:nL0534343]
30/7 Siemens Q3 strong on big industry, energy work[ID:nL0565219]
29/7 Crunch hits real estate service cos’ profits [ID:nN29408348]
29/7 Merrill to sell $8.5bn stock after write-down[ID:nN28254377]
29/7 Europe chem firms warn of rising input prices [ID:nL9147639]
29/7 Woolworths hits new low after profit warning [ID:nL9205970]
24/7 Ford posts $8.7-bln loss on truck slump [ID:nN24301386]
24/7 Renault ’09 sales target cut, jobs at risk [ID:nL24625035]
24/7 Daimler cuts earnings outlook, shares plunge [ID:nL4652541]
24/7 USG’s profit down, sees 2 yrs of economy woes[ID:nL24102276]
28/7 Inflat pressures complicate turmoil-IMF [ID:nN28413884]
25/7 China say seeks to balance growth, inflation [ID:nPEK297796]
23/7 Fed says price pressures gain, growth slows [ID:nN23449590]
22/7 U.S. Fed policymakers’ recent comments [ID:nN22316176]
22/7 ECB policymakers’ recent rate comments [ID:nECBQUOTES]
18/7 Recent Swiss National Bank policymaker views [ID:nSNBQUOTES]
21/7 BOE’s Blanchflower-UK ‘going into recession [ID:nN20348513]
21/7 German finance ministry writes off Q2 GDP [ID:nL21876224]
23/7 G7 outlook takes fresh hit from credit crunch[ID:nL23428380]
17/7 Credit crunch to sting well into next year [ID:nLAG003000]
16/7 Confidence drops in U.S. economic policy [ID:nN15315048]
16/7 Funds most negative on equities in 10 years [ID:nL16762108]
29/7 Merrill sparks fears bank crisis cost to soar[ID:nN29333243]
29/7 Banks take heart from efforts to calm mkts [ID:nL23937127]
29/7 London still calling through credit
21/7 Credit seen drying up for U.S. small firms [ID:nN20368210]
16/7 German industry tools up for global slowdown [ID:nL16308504]
11/7 Short of recession, Europe risks stagnation [ID:nL11549212]
11/7 Recession risk grows in Britain [ID:nL09314179]
102 Responses to “Global Recession Watch: Recoupling rather than Decoupling”
Any positive news?
Also on NPR today, in a program interviewing journalists who will be covering the Olympics, it was revealed that the journalists’ access to the internet will be restricted while they are in China. The rule was passed without objection by Olympic officials.Addendum to story just posted on previous thread:A revealing book by a former California legislator once coined the famous phrase, “What makes you think we read the bills!” This thought was remembered after the one-party incumbent-protecting lobbyist-rewarding lame-duck-celebrating Congress swiftly pulled the pin on the Big Housing Bill grenade.Why indeed would any congressman want to read through Paulson’s update on FDR’s New Deal? What’s a congressman going to do, pick apart some little something in this banking “Big Rock Candy Mountain”? This deal had to pass. It’s an election year, for crying out loud! Is this any time to bring up details like the requirement for all credit card transactions to go to the IRS?“Hey, Congressman,” says his campaign man. “You wanna lose your bank backing next election?” Like the crisis legislation of the 1930s, the devil is in the details. And this, as usual, speeds our quickening slide into dictatorship government.What could happen next? Well, consider, for example, a report this morning on National Public Radio, from China. Even though China’s so-called capitalism is a growing phenomenon, tourism is down! It seems China is worried about “security and protests” (translation – “criticism”) as the world watches the Olympics through the eyes of the international media.Reports NPR: tourism is down because of a substantial crackdown on applications for visitor visas. One woman interviewed explained the difficult procedure for getting visas for her family for a two-week vacation visit in China. First, all round trip tickets had to be purchased and evidence provided.Second, each night’s destination had not only to be provided but each hotel’s confirmation was required.In addition, evidence of bank balances was required including a bank balance for the woman’s daughter, showing at least $3,500.To top if off, China required a signed note from the woman’ employer that she is leaving for the two weeks but is coming back to and will have her job when she returns.You ask where America’s government is headed in the future? Stay tuned.
I think China just wants to keep out unemployed Americans who intend to remain in China, same as USA tries to keep out "undesirable" immigrants. Maybe they are mirroring the absurd requirements the US places on Chinese who wish to visit the USA.
Any bets on how much lying the powers that be do in regards to the GDP deflator tomorrow? My guess is they will use about 1.5% as the inflation number and thus GDP will be huge tomorrow (3%+) so the govt can justify another rebate package.Dow up almost 200 points at the close with oil up $4.77. Criminal.
4:00 p.m. IMF: U.S. economy to be weaker in ’09 than ’084:00 p.m. IMF: U.S. on verge of slowing after strong first half4:00 p.m. IMF: Fed should pause for now, with bias to hike rates4:00 p.m. U.S. could push lenders to write down mortgages: IMF
curious on 2008-07-30 14:13:44 – @ptm I must challenge your post… What do you think?I think never a chest-thumper, or a chest-bumper be. (I think Shakespeare said that?)
Australia faces worse crisis than America:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xml
It seems odd that the collapse of a US mortgage portfolio would have a worse effect in Australia than the USA.In fact I doubt that it is true. I would guess that the US is in even worse shape than Australia, and that’s not to minimize the problems in Australia.
@Anonymous: “I think China just wants to keep out unemployed Americans who intend to remain in China, same as USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants…”Thanks for your comment. It seems unusual at this crisis time in our country’s history that you would look to China for instructions on our pathway, and would deflect criticism from that country’s dictatorship and its oppression, particularly of the people of Tibet..I live in California: perhaps you could come here and explain to us how the “USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants" and “the absurd requirements” of our immigration policy.
My list for hard hit countries based on stock market valuations over the past six years: US at number one, Australia, UK, Ireland, Spain and New Zealand all at a shared second place.
What are folks’ thoughts on how hard Canada is going to be hit?Mark
I did not look to China for instructions on anything, and my comment had nothing at all to do with Tibet! I was just inferring what _their_reasoning might have been.In California, is it the Chinese immigrants you’re concerned about, or those from Mexico and points south? Even if you are concerned about Chinese immigration, I doubt China would be especially sympathetic to US efforts to keep them out, and I know they do have a tendency to mirror our regulations about things like that. I’m not saying anyone is right or wrong, just thinking about the way things are.
Dr. Roubini,Please discuss the covered bonds that Treasury Secretary Paulson wants the banks to issue. Although I don’t know the details, it feels like a game of three-card monte–that the financial institutions can save themselves and enable people to buy homes again by issuing a new type of security. But perhaps there is more to it than I suspect.Comments from the community are also welcome.
What do the smart guys over here think about the predictions made by leap2020? I took a subscription, read all there published reports since the beginning of 2006. They just nailed it all. They are predicting the "Very Great US Depression".
@Anonymous on 2008-07-30 15:22:27Australia faces worse crisis than America:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xmlThat article is written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, a right-wing journalist. IMHO his articles are politically motivated. Or he has people to please. Or both.There has been some other articles in the news along the same lines. It sometimes gave me the feeling that perhaps there are people who want to trigger a recession there. Or perhaps these sort of articles are a reason the AUD has still not reached for parity with the USD; the Australian dollar always goes up to about .76 USD after which it falls back down. Who knows what the reason is; Australia is so far away that not many would bother going there just to check how the economy really looks like.I just moved out of Melbourne a couple of months ago and the housing market was still healthy there. Or to put it in another way: there are no large swaths of "For Sale" signs, nor a large amount of businesses downsizing and closing as in the U.S. Earlier this year there was a discussion on a radio station that they should start bringing over construction workers from the U.S, as the unemployment in Australia is the lowest it has been for a long time and businesses have a hard time finding workers.
Nouriel,1.In your last post you mentioned that housing prices will drop at least 30%. I think it is becoming clear that 40-50% is likely. How would such larger drops in housing prices affect your predictions for GDP in the US and the prospect for a severe global recession.2. The new US deficit numbers, which do not take into account the likely costs of bailing out Fannie and Freddie, let alone other large banks and likely automakers, indicate that a large and increasing supply of treasuries will be coming onto the market. At the same time foreign central banks, which have purchased hundreds of billions of dollars worth of treasuries in the last 12 months, are likely to have less funds available to continue this process, as US imports will likely slow dramatically in the coming months. Won’t these events cause a spike in treasury rates, worsening mortgage rates and the credit crisis generally? Won’t such a feedback loop ensure a deep global recession?
Is there a new Fed facility? Called PFKATPDCF? I love alphabet soup?The new Permanent Formerly Know As Temporary Primary Dealer Credit Facility will churn out futurative presumption upon the earning power of the USA taxpayer. Like the hedonic adjustments of inflation calculations, you (YES YOU, READER) must become accustomed to fat-free milk as a protein source when previously you had King Crab and Tenderloin. Your dollar shall be diluted. Your ability to freely trade and manage your assets will be hampered. Your liberties shall be imposed upon. Your absolute faiths will be shaken tremendously. Every human possesses their own concept of (heaven, paradise, Shangri-La)–we began an approach to it with the foundation of a new order with new specially protective laws in a New World. The canker and Leprosy of an Old World came to be hosted quietly amoung a small banking elite. The teeth of the dragon sown have spawned a legion of haunting demons which will deprive you of property and life. Andrew Jackson, Woodrow Wilson, Jefferson recognized the inherent danger. N.Rothschild is laughing in his grave. Objective achieved. Yeomen yoked. Henchmen of a cruelty cartel has enslaved the unvigilant majority. How many Pinocchios are enjoying Donkey Island? Greater Fools? None greater than those who presume themselves wiser than their predecessors. We are in Stromboli’s grasp…er, International Banking. Dance upon your strings boys, commit your bodies to the cannon. Your bodies are but fodder to your astute and conniving enemies. Your unearned-as-yet possessions are as an albatross upon your neck. Too long ignored is Jimminey Cricket, that still small voice which counsels you to prudent undertaking, which provokes you toward virtue. No! You must have NOW! You must live IMMEDIATE! You do not understand the investment of eternity. Nor do you understand your state and status under heaven. Instead you eat a bread of ignominy and ridicule. Happy must be your estate! Happy your inheritance! Remember as fools mock, they mourn their mocking much longer. Your teeth shall crumble like chalk as you try to digest the ruthless bread of your doings. In consuming, you are consumed. Pulled within a leviathan of your own making. Draw yourselves down, adorn with sackcloth and ashes. You are forlorn, unallied, unknown and despised amoung men. Job’s tear have ascendency over you. To be called gentile! How horrible, and yet to deserve it for ignorance and avoidance of the light.http://youtube.com/watch?v=v-xiPS_fa7g&feature=related
@Guest on 2008-07-30 15:41:07I guess you are not aware of US Visa requirements for some nations. Reminds me of the time Brazil started finger printing US citizens and how the US citizens tried to create a ruckus only to be told that that the US was finger printing Brazillian citizens as so fair was fair and that they would stop if the US stopped.
Speaking of the Fed, the triumvirate of Benanke, Paulson and TG, testified under penalties of perjury to congress that the Bear CDOs were worth about $30 Billion at least twice, once as recently as July. Were the Merrill CDOs that much worse than the Bear CDOs that a 95% discrepancy in value existed?
@ Flanders,Could you be kind and give an n-point summary of leap2020 forcasts. I know most of it is on their website, but I guess members can have access to more details.
if merril’s cdo is worth 0-22cents on dollar, then how much is Fed’s $20 billion bailout for bear stern now? how much is Fed’s collateral on its balance sheet that it swaped with major banks and investment bank, and mortgage companies? FED is holding worthless collateral.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS…From Hussman:"There are two ways to force government liabilities into the hands of foreigners (which we will have to do since our domestic savings are insufficient to fund another large expansion in the federal debt). One way is to discount the government liabilities through lower bond prices and higher interest rates. The other is through Dornbusch-type “exchange rate overshooting.” In this event, the value of the U.S. dollar would effectively plunge, setting up expectations for a subsequent appreciation sufficient to encourage demand for U.S. Treasury debt and to absorb the new issuance. Ultimately, we can expect either further bond market weakness, or alternatively, a dollar crisis. Our investment position leans toward the prospect of a dollar crisis, but not aggressively."http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080728.htm
The mix of spill over effects coming from sub prime mortgage crisis ,and oil prices increases pressures on inflationary expectations,represents a simultaneous financial and a supply shock, which might push the gobal economy into a deeper slowdown,than previously expected,although hardly at a recessions levels.Thus,a question arises: what is the proper share of each one of these factors, on the final outcome?.It does make a difference that share, as long as it deals with the best policy reaction,and the timing of the recovery process.A stronger share of sub prime mortgages crisis ,will make slower the economic recovery.-
ssshhhhdont talk about bear stern..people have "almost" forgot about themssshhh
1-2 years to go..http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2008/07/dutch_report_warns_of_oil_cris.phpDutch report warns of oil crisis in 2010Wednesday 30 July 2008A sustained period of worldwide oil scarcity will begin sooner than generally forecast and could spark off military conflicts in Africa, according to the Dutch Clingendael institute for international relations, reports Wednesday’s Volkskrant.According to Clingendael, the oil shortage will begin to bite in 2010, five years earlier than predicted by the International Energy Agency. The consequences are outlined in Clingendael’s report entitled Oil turbulence in the next decade.© DutchNews.nl
you lovely bears will see a positive NFPR plus +3.5% GDP.enjoy summer rally…NO recession in the usa! Again it is just a matter of money!
careful son of paul, spreading false rumors is a crime, oh yeah, that is only if you are Bearish or Lehish or Fannish or Freddish or ………..
@Written by son of the paul on 2008-07-30 20:18:58thanks son of the paul.you make my life easy.you are the GOD!you are the leader!You are the creator!
Good Grief, Charlie Brown. Military conflict in Africa? Whatever shall we do?
@Written by Kafka on 2008-07-30 20:24:41is spreading rumors on recession, credit crisis, banking crisis is a crime?
Guest on 2008-07-30 20:34:16It may be if they are false (i.e., not backed up by the numbers) with the intent to deceive and profit Check out how level 2 and 3 assets are valued under GAAP or reserve losses on loans, that is ipso facto a crime in of itself. Or check out how much money Paulson made from the appreciation in his Goldman stock, the day he bailed Bear out with public funds, $20 to 50 million at least.
The United States is in severe financial crisis. Otherwise, why put the integrity of the U.S. stock market on a level with that of a banana republic’s? But that is what Bernanke and Paulson and the Congress are doing – by condoning legal plunder.Already, there is a gathering storm of protest by many of the country’s finest market observers and economists. Nouriel Roubini, who has served this country’s financial system for years, wrote yesterday: “It is both the credibility and viability of the most sophisticated financial system that is at stake now as most of this financial and banking system is on its way to substantial and formal insolvency and bankruptcy.”How is it that legal plunder can be identified? “Quite simply,” writes economist Frederic Bastiat. “See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.”It will take a lifetime to get out from under the legal plunder the Fed and the Treasury and the Congress have perpetrated upon the people, through bailouts and perverted economic law, benefiting so few financially at the expense and hardship of so many.As the situation worsens day by day, at home and abroad, perhaps we’ll see these same people not so much grabbing for power as reacting to the severity of the crisis they have brought upon themselves and at which they are now the center. Most Americans fail to realize just how big the crisis is, how massive the web of debts, how devastating the potential destruction. Just yesterday the Massachusetts Educational Financing Authority was unable to secure financing for the 40,000 students it services. It can’t get money from anyone to pass it on. We are in severe credit crisis growing worse by day.. When Bernanke extends the discount window to common Street investors, I interpret the worst.
The common people must not be human shields for the banks. How do we organize to protect ourselves against such exploitation?People say the voters shouldn’t stand for it. But (putting aside concern about rigged elections) what if the choice in the election is between tweedledum and tweedledee? The system has long been broken, what will work?
Professor Roubini,Have you had any conversations with Barak Obama about the future direction of the U.S. economy? I’m very distressed that he has picked Jason Furman, Robert Rubin’s protege, as his chief financial advisor. Obama seeems to want to fill an FDR niche, but his choice is much worse than FDR relying on Henry Morganthau and a chicken farmer from Cornell (not good). At least FDR distanced himself from the banksters. I can’t think of a worse culprit for what has happened than Robert Rubin and the whole Goldman Sachs crowd that fought deregulation and even tried to unethically protect Enron. For brief commentary by Robert Scheer in the Nation, "A Bipartisan Lovefest with Bankers," see:http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080804/scheer2
PSI meant "fought to deregulate"
CNBC clowns are criminals.ANDPeople who listen to CNBC are morons.THIS IS DISGUSTING.http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808133124&play=1Like%20this%20comment?%20yes%20no%20(Score:%200%20by%200)
Sorry,I meant to say "CNBC clowns & bimbos are criminals."Good Luck to all.
sorry to admit I like Kudlow, even though I do not agree with him, he has alot of energy for an old dude and sometimes interesting charts, Joey B is the best and disagrees with Kudlow on all fronts, usually. To make dough, you must understand the enemy, Sun Tzu (paraphrase).
someone posted the current situation is like "the battle of the bulge"-i agree, they have lost the war, this is just time delaying tactics, setting up minefields, boobby traps,a lot of Bear Soldiers will die along the way, and for those who lucky enough to reach and see with their own eyes Wall street(paulson/ben) bunkers, i suspect they will at that time ask from senate (like the magnitude of bailing out of F&F)to pass an emergency bills (such as prohibiting ownership of gold, ban currency trading or ban short selling –which is happening NOW!!!)and deliver the final ultimate deadblow ala star wars deathstar explosion—boom—–silence….after floating and spreading across the globe, fallout particles of CDO’s,SIV’s, SWF’s falls to earth, cleansed..slowly but surely survivors emerged from the forest and woods, amazed at the sight of total destruction..
Gloomy (quoting Hussman): "Ultimately, we can expect either further bond market weakness, or alternatively, a dollar crisis …"There are quite a lot of people who think that right now we’re seeing the calm before the next storm. I’ve been thinking myself that the next storm could very well be a dollar crisis. Even the ECB and the BOJ must be ready to re-think their agreements with the Fed to purchase US bonds at this stage. No-one in their right mind would buy US bonds or US agency debt right now. The Russians were smart to unload 50% of the GSE holdings in recent moves.PeteCA
Anonymous: "what if the choice in the election is between tweedledum and tweedledee? "It’s looking more and more like that to me. We’re sitting on the edge of a precipice here. With the national debt running at $9.5 trillion right now, what does the Administration and Congress do? Pump up the debt ceiling to $10.6 trillion. Unbelievable !!!!!You’d think that any candidate with an IQ larger bigger a shellfish would grasp the notion that America is facing a grave economic crisis. Instead, McCain wants to continue the wars, and Obama wants to spend $$ on health and education as soon as he gets into office. We AIN’T got anything left to spend, guys! They’ve already announced that the 2009 fiscal deficit will be a record breaker. I could find 5′th graders who could understand the problem … and suggest better solutions.PeteCA
-Missed the "to make dough, you must understand the enemy" part of Sun Tzsu, but probably applicable. Use Clausewitz, Bobbie Lee, Patton, and parts of Pershing to make your war on these criminals. You may be entirely right but routed using all your resources. Array a hard, well prepared offensive/defensive strategy. Keep ample reserve. Hit with specialized black ops and shock troops. Use psychological warfare on the enemies’ morale. Interrupt their supply line: But once making contact, keep hold, keep constant, keep adding strength against their weakness. Once a breakthrough is achieved, ignore all constraint of fear and fatigue, and magnify your winnings. Rout their line, roll their entire defense. SEIZE the day and bag their armee! They are exhausted and overextended, grapple with them without release. Bulldog upon their neck, SHORT, SHORT, SHORT. This will be the example of ages. DO NOT defile the free agencies of the market. YOUR PUNISHMENT will be meted most severely. We are small, but UNITED. CRUSH THIS SERPENT before it bruise thy heel.
Bear Stearns is defunct, but stern bears provisioned with knowledge and some capital will make Wall Street think "Fredericksburg" or "Mortain" or "Stalingrad" or " El Alamein". Money removed, they are the most callow of men and fit only for the bone-and-grist mills. Fertilize my fields with the bones on moneymakers without merit.
Today, says Bloomberg News, “U.S. Stocks Climb After Report Shows Job Growth, Commodities Shares Rally."Wasn’t it just yesterday Bloomberg announced that stocks went up on consumer confidence reports? Yet yesterday’s ABC’s head line blazed “Consumer confidence plunges near historical low.”Sadly, stocks didn’t go up on job growth or consumer confidence but on a bear rally push and pull for profits partly orchestrated by The Street on an old financial-media confidence trick to snare the 401(k) novitiates into thinking the government is going to stand behind Wall Street and all its banks and they’d better hop in on the low while the Dow is jumping and make a fortune. Read carefully about consumer sentiment. Bloomberg used the old saw that the Conference Board said its U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 51.9 in July from 51.0 in June when economists were EXPECTING a reading of 50.0. Which is meaningless.In reality, American consumers’ confidence plummeted in the latest week, with only 10 percent of respondents in a recent poll having a positive view on the economic outlook, said Reuters, with confidence near historic lows."Declining confidence comes on the heels of a range of negative economic news," ABC said. "The National Association of Realtors reported worse-than-expected existing home sales in June. (Gasoline) prices, though down 11 cents this week, are still averaging a steep $3.96 a gallon." The report also mentioned sluggish retail and auto sales, a declining real estate market and high energy costs as the focus of consumer concerns.“The Consumer Comfort Index components were all lower from the previous week. Positive views on personal finances fell 3 percentage points to 49 percent and those on the buying climate lost 2 percentage points to 21 percent. The biggest decline was in positive views of the national economy, down 4 percentage points to 10 percent.”http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2937351620080729 These last two days will be the takings of a bear rally: there’s nothing, zip, zero, nada, zilch indicating any light at the end of this black economic tunnel.
Pete-write in Ron Paul. He DOES understand….
Bulldog upon their neck, SHORT, SHORT, SHORT. This will be the example of ages.capone, is that you?
@ wawawa Re: Paulso, that Capitalism HeroSorry but I hate you That was a 3:30min torture, I could not withstand it beyond the first minute.
"McCain wants to continue the wars, and Obama wants to spend $$ on health and education as soon as he gets into office. We AIN’T got anything left to spend, guys!"apparently, their IQ is no better than that of Bush. America is doomed period.
Blooming Deserts Turn Israeli Water Industry Into Money MagnetBy Tal BarakEnlarge Image/DetailsJuly 30 (Bloomberg) — At the end of a road winding through Israel’s Negev desert, the entrance to Kibbutz Hatzerim is flanked by jojoba shrubs jutting from the arid earth.The grove is the result of drip irrigation developed by Israeli engineer Simcha Blass in the 1960s that enabled the kibbutzniks to farm the desert. The company they started, Netafim Ltd., has sold the product in 110 countries from Germany to Peru.“The founders were living in the middle of the desert and saw one agricultural failure after the other,” Naty Barak, 64, a director at Netafim, said at the kibbutz visitors center. “Back then it was their problem, but now it’s a global necessity.”Today, some 300 Israeli companies make equipment to deliver water or purify it with lasers or diffusion, putting them in a position to profit as climate change, population growth and food shortages strain supplies. With agriculture accounting for about two-thirds of global water use, the Israeli government predicts overseas sales of the technology will top $10 billion by 2017.As a result, the businesses are attracting investors. Amiad Filtration Systems Ltd., which will help manage sewage treatment at the Beijing Olympics, is up 49 percent in the past year in London, giving it a market value of about $75 million.Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of tractors and combines, on June 5 agreed to buy Israel’s Plastro Irrigation Systems Ltd., Netafim’s main competitor in agricultural irrigation, for an undisclosed sum.`Track Record’More than 1.1 billion people, mostly in Africa and Asia, don’t have clean drinking water, according to the World Health Organization. Global food prices, meanwhile, surged 57 percent in March from a year earlier, United Nations data show.“There is a growing lack of water in the world, and people are realizing now that it’s an issue that’s gaining momentum,” said Nir Belzer, managing partner of Tel Aviv-based Gaon Agro Industries Ltd.’s $65 million clean-technology fund. “In Israel, there’s already a track record for water companies.”Belzer’s fund invested in closely held Desalitech Ltd., a Tel Aviv-based company that invented a way to take salt out of water using 20 percent less energy than standard reverse osmosis.Amiad, founded 45 years ago on a kibbutz, developed what it calls “suction scanning,” a new way of filtering pollutants from water. It has a contract to remove iron from drinking water in Ramenskoye, a town near Moscow.Atlantium Technologies Ltd. uses ultraviolet light to zap deadly organisms, a method employed by Coca-Cola Co.`Conservative Market’Two-thirds of Israel is desert. In the Arava region, south of Hatzerim, the average annual rainfall is less than 50 millimeters (2 inches). Wastewater there is cleaned for drip irrigation to grow fruit and vegetables, 80 percent of which are exported to Europe, Barak said.Israel’s Water Authority started a countrywide campaign in July to conserve resources as the Sea of Galilee, the main source of drinking water, dries up.Israeli companies still face challenges finding investors and developing sales. While demand for water is high, few customers are willing to commit to new products, said Oded Distel, director at the Ministry of Industry, Trade & Labor.“Israeli water-technology companies are dealing with a very conservative market that isn’t always tempted to try the most innovative solutions,” Distel said. “Municipalities around the world are hesitant to try a new technology.”With Netafim’s system, farmers bury pipelines underground, allowing them to drip water and fertilizers directly onto the roots of their crops through devices that control the pressure and quality of the liquid.Going GlobalThe company expects to double sales within a few years, according to Chief Executive Officer Ofer Bloch. Sales increased 25 percent to $500 million in 2007.“An amazing agronomic knowledge has developed in Israel in the past 40 years, which we are now selling to the world,” Bloch, 48, said at his Tel Aviv office.One Netafim customer, Sociedad Agricola Drokasa SA in Peru, uses 10,000 miles of drip irrigation hoses. The company, known as Agrokasa, picked Netafim 12 years ago when starting production of avocados, asparagus and grapes.“We contacted Netafim because we weren’t just looking for hose, plastic or dripper suppliers, we were looking for a partner in technology,” Jose Chlimper, Agrokasa’s chief, said by telephone from the company’s base in Lima.The global water industry, which includes waste treatment, valves, pumps, filtration and desalination equipment, is worth about $400 billion, according to Francesca McCann, an analyst at Stanford Group Co., a Washington-based research company.“There was little incentive to conserve water, but now with rising commodity prices and the climate change, that will boost demand for more efficient technologies,” McCann said.The market will reach $537 billion by 2010, according to Israel’s Ministry of Industry, Trade & Labor.At Kibbutz Hatzerim, surrounded by grass and trees, Barak displayed the first adapted hose used on the site.“About 60 years ago, there was nothing here, only a dry wasteland,” said Barak, a kibbutznik for four decades. “This was the start of the development of a serious industry.”To contact the reporter on this story: Tal Barak in Tel Aviv at email@example.comLast Updated: July 29, 2008 19:12 EDT
"Did yah read about the flood…long time ago…way back in the East" when a flood occurred. A flood of sellers who found now buyers? One Thursday or Friday evening…A dark cloud rose…Tupelo, yeah Tupelo. Sweet honey plant you are. Bees of mine sufferin’, drones–drones–few producers. Multitude of grievous parasites, viruses, and plagues to endure. Are they vanishing? Of course, they are! Screamin’ and cryin’. Lord have mercy.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GOCAC8FCqE
Im writing in Ron Paul. He is the only one who understands. Pat Buchanan is another who has written passionately about the wrong direction we have taken under Bush II.
@AfA: I will post the latest forecasts of leap2020 – their summer edition – this evening on this blog.
Prof. Roubini, no it’s decoupling alright, the global growth wheels have come off while the merchantilist trade bus hurtles to the abyss. Another food for thought quote for LB,"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."-Albert EinsteinAfter Central Banks of New Zealand, Australia, ECB and now India have successfully strangled their economies with high interest rates, we await more global stupidity.Cheers to US Alhpa!————————————@Guest on 2008-07-30 15:41:07 wrote: I live in California: perhaps you could come here and explain to us how the “USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants" and “the absurd requirements” of our immigration policy.@Guest, we’ve kept out desirable student immigrants ($100,000 earning Indian and Chinese graduating from Qinghua, IIT and US Universities (in that order). After Hank does a ‘fisc’, we’ll need to reverse our ‘absurd requirements’ so that we can fund the coming tax bill. Best,P1AQL aka Limited Genius
"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."-Albert Einsteinbwwaahahahabwaahahaha
One more very good post by Steve Waldman, very much in line with the discussion around here: what does saving mean, how to put savings to work (for real), savers’ plan B is hoarding (ouch!), the blame lies on Wall Street. Very clear as always:http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1217494669.shtml
I get up this morning to find the Fed has extended the TAF… I guess the Temporary part is now less temporary. So, maybe the name should change also? How about T_AF? Or maybe LAF!
@Guest on 2008-07-31 03:10:25 wrote: bwwaahahahabwaahahahaAnd you thought you had seen only the homes of the genius? Take a flight, head over to Shanghai and Mumbai where there are empty apartments with elevator parking and movie theatres with gourmet a la carte dining. Talk about homes of the stupid. Enjoy the sun out there is So Cal!P1AQL
Free Tibet, just look what alber einstein says about stupid people.. to infinity and beyond.. hahahha
Are we in the summer lull or is this just the lull forever ?Suspect its the latter"The Great Lull" is upon us
Alessandro on 2008-07-31 04:21:42 wrote: how to put savings to work (for real)Thanks for the link. Only investment banks can put real savings to work. Who else is willing to take the risk of matching illiquid investments with liquid savings? Only America has them. That’s why we need to save them. Losing them will mean going to the terminally ill Plan B. The Asians only know Plan B (either buy treasuries or keep savings under a mattress or in real-estate). See http://www.nasdaq.com/investorrelations/letter/index.html“CROWN JEWEL”President Jiang Zemin of the People’s Republic of China called Nasdaq “the crown jewel of all that is great about America.” He and other foreign leaders view Nasdaq as the key to the capital formation model they seek to spur innovation, prosperity and growth in their own countries. That’s why the Nasdaq (and the investment banks) are the crown jewels – the real channel for putting savings to work (for real). We’re not perfect. We’re just relatively better off.Best,-P1AQL.
apparently, Federal Reserve Act is useless, because no one is enforcing it now.Soon constitution and democracy will become useless too. Never underestimate the power of dark side.“The whole idea” of the rules in the Federal Reserve Act is “to make it costly and difficult to support an insolvent institution.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/housing-bailout-bill-also-eased-having.html
P1AQL: "Only investment banks can put real savings to work."I’m sorry, my mind refuses to attach any meaning to the above mentioned sequence of letter.IBs have been advertising to their clients suff like: CDO, ABS, SIV, MBS, ARS, and probably HIV.
P1AQL: "The Asians only know Plan B (either buy treasuries or keep savings under a mattress or in real-estate)."Plan B means hoarding real stuff, treasuries and even cash are not real stuff. Real estate is.
Open the oil fund window…
Really? I’m shocked! Hucudavanoda!"U.S. Recession May Have Started at End of 2007, Revisions ShowBy Timothy R. Homan – July 31 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy may have tipped into a recession in the last three months of 2007 as consumer spending slowed more than previously estimated and the housing slump worsened, revised government figures showed."http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZMDdtdqEPOU&refer=home
From time-to-time I try to imagine the background and status in life of the participants on this forum, because y’all seem so angry sometimes Well, according to this WSJ oped piece, we are either extreme liberals or such a small fraction of the population it cannot be measured!Where’s the Outrage? Really – By ARTHUR C. BROOKS – July 31, 2008 – Page A15In May 2008, the Gallup Organization asked 1,200 American adults how many days in the past week they had felt "outraged." The average number of angry days was 1.17, and 54% of those surveyed said none. Only one in 20 reported being outraged every day…Indeed, we are less angry today than a decade ago. Let’s look back to the glory days of the 1990s, when — according to the media narrative — we enjoyed uninterrupted peace and prosperity. In 1996, the General Social Survey asked exactly the same "outrage" question of 1,500 adults. Then, only 38% had not been outraged at all in the past week. The average number of angry days was 1.5 per week, 29% higher than at present.Only one major group in the population has gotten angrier: people who call themselves "very liberal." While conservatives, moderates and nonextreme liberals all have seen their average levels of outrage fall over the past 12 years, the number of angry days among our leftiest neighbors has risen 56% (to 2.28 from 1.46), and the percentage with no angry days in the past week has fallen to 31% from 37%. Today, very liberal people spend more than twice as much time feeling angry as do political moderates. One in seven is outraged seven days a week…. anger does not translate very well into lower levels of happiness. In fact, extreme liberals were more likely than moderates in 2008 to say they were "very happy" about their lives (28% to 25%). This is of a piece with a growing body of political research which finds that people on the extreme left (and extreme right) tend to be quite a bit happier than those with more moderate views.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121746010408198765.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
As NR predicted, the credit contagion is spreading. NBC Today show aired a segment on how car leasing is drying up. It’s more difficult to obtain a car lease, and if one does, then it will be at higher prices.To me, this is another indicator that the Fed is, in fact, in a liquidity trap. They appear to have less and less influence over real interest rates for cars and mortgages.
ptm: "As NR predicted, the credit contagion is spreading. NBC Today show aired a segment on how car leasing is drying up. It’s more difficult to obtain a car lease, and if one does, then it will be at higher prices."The ratings on bonds for all our major auto manufacturers have put them in the category of junk bonds. They are in real trouble raising money now, because of soaring interest rates. One current casualty is the car leasing market.We’re clearly headed for major problems in both the US auto and banking sectors in the 3′rd and 4′th quarters of 2008. This means that we will likely be seeing major players go bankrupt. I just checked the list of questionable banks in California yesterday. There are now over 100 banks in California alone that are rated with a "D", and six more that are rated with an "E". No need to say where this is going.Normally, this would be pretty bad news. But the amazing thing is … it’s not even the worst part of the message any more. The latest projections from the credit markets are showing a trend for soaring corporate defaults and bankruptcies – and this wave is not really expected to start in earnest until ’09. I’ve gotta’ say that the level of complacency out there on the streets is amazing. Here’s one anecdote. My wife warned a guy a few weeks ago to consider moving his money out of IndyMac bank in California. The guy wouldn’t have anything to do with it. His comment: "I don’t want to leave that bank – they’re giving me such a good deal on interest rates!". Not only this, but he had a sum of money that was well over the FDIC limit. Naturally, the outcome was that he recently spent 8 hours standing on the street waiting in line to try to get his money back. I doubt he’ll get it all. I just don’t know what to say about this kind of behavior.ptm recently made a comment on this blog about crime rates in America in the 1970′s. I’d say we’re definitely headed back there. America’s big cities are going to see soaring unemployment and poverty. And this will turn into a vicious rise in crime rates. My guess is that we’ll see this trend materialize in ’09 (but in some places it could be much earlier).PeteCA
Even today’s GDP number is a hoax. Like I warned yesterday, the deflator was somthing like 1.1%-even less than last quarter. If you used las qtrs. deflator (even as lowball as that one was!!) this quarter would have had negative growth as well. The explosin in weekly jobless claims, continuing claims and small business bankruptcies confirm the recession is only getting worse! LOLOL, in response, stocks barely down, in fact the NASD is up 13 pts!
hello NR,your recession call is off the mark again, what is with that?GDP "grew at an annual rate of 1.9%"http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080731/economy.html
Stocks just about green now so ignore all the HORRIBLE economic news out this a.m. It evidently has no future ramifications for earnins…
Interesting article by Richard Benson this morning on Financial Sense. He points out that with falling tax revenues expected in 2009, the real budget deficit for ’09 is more like $600 billion. This is over $100 billion higher than the official estaimtes that were stated by the Gov’t just a few days ago (and that was already a record-breaking deficit!).Here is the link:http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2008/0730.htmlPeteCA
@ P1AQLThanks for the Einstein quote.@ AllDebt deflation news is coming fast and thick now. Credit card use is contracting rapidly, as are credit lines and issuance. http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/07/credit-cards-contracting.htmlCommercial and business lending is contracting too, squeezing otherwise healthy and profitable businesses as liquidity evaporates.http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/07/signs-of-debt-deflation-in-commercial.htmlTomorrow I’ll introduce Irving Fisher’s Debt Deflation Theory on my RGE blog. He was marginalised and discredited after the 29 Crash, but I think there’s a lot of merit in his work with history repeating itself. Fisher was a pioneer of mathematical economics, innovating theories on interest, credit and monetary dynamics that are core to all teaching today. His explanation of the causality of the Great Depression probably merits as much respect, but TPTB hated it and preferred the "blame the Fed" excuses.
How friggin convenient!!! LIARS!!!! From the GDP report:Measured GDP inflation slowed sharply due to technical quirks in the overall price index. Second quarter real GDP posted a 1.9 percent annualized gain, following a revised 0.9 percent rise the prior quarter… On the inflation front, the GDP price index rose an annualized 1.1 percent – down from the first quarter increase of 2.6 percent but the deceleration was a statistical quirk.
@ PeteCA..vicious rise in crime rates.But you have already the highest rate of prisoners in the world.Looks like the prison business is gonna be profitable:-)
no recession in the usa, as far as the printing machine is working.I have told you lovely bears many times this is just a matter of money.
What about all the "cash on the sidelines" teasing John Q Public who is afraid he might miss out on an explosive rally? This may be a source of these swings in the equity markets recently. How much of this "cash" is truly liquid, and how much of the talk about money markets not breaking the buck..ie., being a relative safe sideline haven, are true?
11:11 a.m.White House says U.S. avoided recession
@Guest: “your recession call is off the mark again, what is with that? GDP "grew at an annual rate of 1.9%"If Al Capone were managing your bank account, would you expect cover-up or the truth when he gave out your monthly “statement"? In that in-your-face embezzlers are managing the public’s treasury, and Paulson has “unlimited authority” to spend the treasury’s money with “no oversight” by Congress or the GAO and in that Bernanke can create and dole out new money at will and know he will never be audited or questioned by Congress, it would take a very naïve human resource to believe anything they or their servile mouthpieces say – particularly as the paper we accept and save from our labors daily grows mysteriously more worthless. To dissipate our outrage and render us hopeless and helpless and isolated, they use polls and their media and their government to tell us how happy and content everyone else is with the way things are. Fortunately, we now have a weapon which can fight back with the power of truth — the internet.
White House says U.S. avoided recession…but will run straight into depression…
If anyone is still wondering why the U.S. military is used as a mechanism to obtain and protect energy sources, this should help spell it out:Exxon Production Falls UnexpectedlyDo you suppose it was unexpected for Exxon? What about Dick Cheyney?Why do you suppose Halliburton moved its headquarters to Dubai? Halliburton’s main business is oilfield services – drilling and exploration.At risk of repeating the obvious, U.K.’s North Sea oilfields are in major decline. It’s not often you get to watch the end of an era. There is opportunity for the small trees when the big ones age, decay, and finally topple. Are your board pieces well-positioned?Comments and remarks welcomed at outerbeltway at yahoo dot com.
@Guest “11:11 a.m.White House says U.S. avoided recession…”Isn’t this the same White House that bailed out Bonnie and Clyde, I mean Fannie and Freddie? And, oh yes, Katrina? I agree with tutterfrut, looks like Little Boots avoided a recession and hit a depression.
In 1997-1998, Asian people were brave enough in dealing with the recession.What you USA people ( should be the white house and fed) doing is a joke!History will offer no mercy to you.
RE: This nugget from P1AQL:President Jiang Zemin of the People’s Republic of China called Nasdaq “the crown jewel of all that is great about America.” He and other foreign leaders view Nasdaq as the key to the capital formation model they seek to spur innovation, prosperity and growth in their own countries.That’s why the Nasdaq (and the investment banks) are the crown jewels – the real channel for putting savings to work (for real).We’re not perfect. We’re just relatively better off.I wouldn’t have conflated NASDAQ with the investment banks. NASDAQ is a market for innovative, small-cap companies to raise equity. The investment banks have historically prepared the paperwork and syndicated the first release of the equity into that market, but they aren’t the market.There are many other mechanisms to achieve the "prepare paperwork and syndicate the initial subscription" of securities. The dot-com bomb of the nineties, and the rapacious mis-allocation/fraud of this century can fairly be ascribed to the investment banks. The IBs need replacement with a mechanism that is less prone to fraud and abuse.Let’s keep the baby and throw out the dirty bathwater.
"vicious rise in crime rates." you mean white collar ?
Only one in 20 reported being outraged every day…anti depressants are working …
dollar is becoming next ZIMBABWE currency. learn to protect yourself and diversify portion of your investment out of dollar or dollar denominated asset. Gisele was right when she demanded to be paid in EURO. and that was no contrary call. that affirms dollar weakness period.
scapegoating and pointing mr. hong has a long global trend /parabolic these days http://hrw.org/english/docs/1998/02/11/indone8880.htm"Indonesia Alert: Economic Crisis Leads to Scapegoating of Ethnic Chinese(02/11/97) — The rise in prices of basic goods such as rice and cooking oil has led to violent protests across Indonesia, much of it aimed at the ethnic Chinese minority who dominate the retail economy. The rioting appears to have been largely spontaneous, but Human Rights Watch believes that senior government and military officials have fueled anti-Chinese sentiment through veiled references to "rats" and "traitors" and by their failure to explain that high prices and food shortages are not the fault of individual retailers. Human Rights Watch calls on the government to state explicitly that the ethnic Chinese are a valued and important part of Indonesian society and that violence against them and their property will not be tolerated. Denouncing communal violence in generic terms is not enough."
@ outerbeltway: “There are many other mechanisms to achieve the "prepare paperwork and syndicate the initial subscription" of securities.”The traditional way was to prepare the offering and then syndicate it to those who might be interested. More recently the IBs underwrote those offerings and then sold them on. It takes a lot of capital to do that. It’s pretty clear that model is broken.
those monsters raped and massacred many innocent chinese women, men, and children for their government’s lies and mistakes.scapegoating and pointing mr. hong has a long global trend /parabolic these dayshttp://hrw.org/english/docs/1998/02/11/indone8880.htm
Paulson is going to sepak in minutes:NO recession/banking crisis/oil crisis/inflation in the usa.The markets just need money.Right??
we will blame it on Jew in this country like when we thrown many innocent Japanese into prison during WWII. prepare to declare end of democracy and rise of XXXX.
@ outerbeltway: “There are many other mechanisms to achieve the "prepare paperwork and syndicate the initial subscription" of securities.”At the risk of annoying "Free Tibet" further here is how they do it in China, by auction!Rather than have an IB sell – sell – sell the issue and reap a huge spread for their special access to the market, the way it’s done in Hong Kong and China is that subscriptions are taken from the general public, at a very low price that’s sure to sell. Everyone has to send cash or cash equivalent along with their order. The issue is typically 10 times oversubscribed! Then if it’s 10 times oversubscribed, in about 2 months everyone gets 1/10 of what they ordered of the new issue at the offered price, paying 1/10 of their money and getting 9/10 back. But the issuer keeps the interest (for the 2 months) on all the money that was deposited. The interest income compensates for the cheap price; the actual price in this example is offered price) * (1 + 10r/6): the 10 because it was 10 times oversubscribed, and r/6 is two months’ interest (at annual rate r) on that money.This way the market adjusts the oversubscription amount to balance the underpricing, and no IB salesforce or syndicate is needed (and none is paid
Yet another advantage (disadvantage for some) of that scheme is that everyone has access to the IPO, not just the friends of the IB.
Free Tibet is not annoyed. In fact I think its really important that we explore other options. Thanks for the example.
Free Tibet, thanks. I was just ribbin’ you a little bit.We should disintermediate the IBs, and the Realtors. The internet is suitable for both jobs. By the way a few years ago I remember reading about how the IBs wanted to replace the Realtors with a more efficient auction marketplace of their design. Doesn’t take much to be more efficient than Realtors! 7% commission, gimme a break!!
I disintermediated a realtor myself once. Sold my house myself. But I don’t know how to disintermediate the IB’s. It’s just beyond my experience.
anonymous – just wondering how that would look. Craig’s list of IPO’s?
Craigslist probably would reject the ads because you need a securities license to sell securities and they would not want to be responsible for checking. Or maybe not! Anyway you do need the securities license.I think these IPOs have to be disclosed publicly, but people don’t read now because they cannot participate. If they could participate, they would find the website, you betcha!Waytogo disintermediating the Realtor. I looked at FSBOs when I bought my house but they were overpriced! Counterintuitive, considering the seller was saving 7% fees, but they were.
"Free Tibet" is delusional. Like free democracy and free market are delusional. in the end, this world will only be toyed in the hand of few privileged elites. anyone think there is gonna be free world is complete retard.
But as 12 economies are entering into a recession and many others are slowing we are also starting to see economic growth recoupling.