Any positive news?

I think China just wants to keep out unemployed Americans who intend to remain in China, same as USA tries to keep out "undesirable" immigrants. Maybe they are mirroring the absurd requirements the US places on Chinese who wish to visit the USA.

4:00 p.m. IMF: U.S. economy to be weaker in ’09 than ’084:00 p.m. IMF: U.S. on verge of slowing after strong first half4:00 p.m. IMF: Fed should pause for now, with bias to hike rates4:00 p.m. U.S. could push lenders to write down mortgages: IMF

Australia faces worse crisis than America:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xml

@Anonymous: “I think China just wants to keep out unemployed Americans who intend to remain in China, same as USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants…”Thanks for your comment. It seems unusual at this crisis time in our country’s history that you would look to China for instructions on our pathway, and would deflect criticism from that country’s dictatorship and its oppression, particularly of the people of Tibet..I live in California: perhaps you could come here and explain to us how the “USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants" and “the absurd requirements” of our immigration policy.

What are folks’ thoughts on how hard Canada is going to be hit?Mark

Dr. Roubini,Please discuss the covered bonds that Treasury Secretary Paulson wants the banks to issue. Although I don’t know the details, it feels like a game of three-card monte–that the financial institutions can save themselves and enable people to buy homes again by issuing a new type of security. But perhaps there is more to it than I suspect.Comments from the community are also welcome.

@Anonymous on 2008-07-30 15:22:27Australia faces worse crisis than America:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xmlThat article is written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, a right-wing journalist. IMHO his articles are politically motivated. Or he has people to please. Or both.There has been some other articles in the news along the same lines. It sometimes gave me the feeling that perhaps there are people who want to trigger a recession there. Or perhaps these sort of articles are a reason the AUD has still not reached for parity with the USD; the Australian dollar always goes up to about .76 USD after which it falls back down. Who knows what the reason is; Australia is so far away that not many would bother going there just to check how the economy really looks like.I just moved out of Melbourne a couple of months ago and the housing market was still healthy there. Or to put it in another way: there are no large swaths of "For Sale" signs, nor a large amount of businesses downsizing and closing as in the U.S. Earlier this year there was a discussion on a radio station that they should start bringing over construction workers from the U.S, as the unemployment in Australia is the lowest it has been for a long time and businesses have a hard time finding workers.

Is there a new Fed facility? Called PFKATPDCF? I love alphabet soup?The new Permanent Formerly Know As Temporary Primary Dealer Credit Facility will churn out futurative presumption upon the earning power of the USA taxpayer. Like the hedonic adjustments of inflation calculations, you (YES YOU, READER) must become accustomed to fat-free milk as a protein source when previously you had King Crab and Tenderloin. Your dollar shall be diluted. Your ability to freely trade and manage your assets will be hampered. Your liberties shall be imposed upon. Your absolute faiths will be shaken tremendously. Every human possesses their own concept of (heaven, paradise, Shangri-La)–we began an approach to it with the foundation of a new order with new specially protective laws in a New World. The canker and Leprosy of an Old World came to be hosted quietly amoung a small banking elite. The teeth of the dragon sown have spawned a legion of haunting demons which will deprive you of property and life. Andrew Jackson, Woodrow Wilson, Jefferson recognized the inherent danger. N.Rothschild is laughing in his grave. Objective achieved. Yeomen yoked. Henchmen of a cruelty cartel has enslaved the unvigilant majority. How many Pinocchios are enjoying Donkey Island? Greater Fools? None greater than those who presume themselves wiser than their predecessors. We are in Stromboli’s grasp…er, International Banking. Dance upon your strings boys, commit your bodies to the cannon. Your bodies are but fodder to your astute and conniving enemies. Your unearned-as-yet possessions are as an albatross upon your neck. Too long ignored is Jimminey Cricket, that still small voice which counsels you to prudent undertaking, which provokes you toward virtue. No! You must have NOW! You must live IMMEDIATE! You do not understand the investment of eternity. Nor do you understand your state and status under heaven. Instead you eat a bread of ignominy and ridicule. Happy must be your estate! Happy your inheritance! Remember as fools mock, they mourn their mocking much longer. Your teeth shall crumble like chalk as you try to digest the ruthless bread of your doings. In consuming, you are consumed. Pulled within a leviathan of your own making. Draw yourselves down, adorn with sackcloth and ashes. You are forlorn, unallied, unknown and despised amoung men. Job’s tear have ascendency over you. To be called gentile! How horrible, and yet to deserve it for ignorance and avoidance of the light.http://youtube.com/watch?v=v-xiPS_fa7g&feature=related

Speaking of the Fed, the triumvirate of Benanke, Paulson and TG, testified under penalties of perjury to congress that the Bear CDOs were worth about $30 Billion at least twice, once as recently as July. Were the Merrill CDOs that much worse than the Bear CDOs that a 95% discrepancy in value existed?

if merril’s cdo is worth 0-22cents on dollar, then how much is Fed’s $20 billion bailout for bear stern now? how much is Fed’s collateral on its balance sheet that it swaped with major banks and investment bank, and mortgage companies? FED is holding worthless collateral.

The mix of spill over effects coming from sub prime mortgage crisis ,and oil prices increases pressures on inflationary expectations,represents a simultaneous financial and a supply shock, which might push the gobal economy into a deeper slowdown,than previously expected,although hardly at a recessions levels.Thus,a question arises: what is the proper share of each one of these factors, on the final outcome?.It does make a difference that share, as long as it deals with the best policy reaction,and the timing of the recovery process.A stronger share of sub prime mortgages crisis ,will make slower the economic recovery.-

1-2 years to go..http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2008/07/dutch_report_warns_of_oil_cris.phpDutch report warns of oil crisis in 2010Wednesday 30 July 2008A sustained period of worldwide oil scarcity will begin sooner than generally forecast and could spark off military conflicts in Africa, according to the Dutch Clingendael institute for international relations, reports Wednesday’s Volkskrant.According to Clingendael, the oil shortage will begin to bite in 2010, five years earlier than predicted by the International Energy Agency. The consequences are outlined in Clingendael’s report entitled Oil turbulence in the next decade.© DutchNews.nl

careful son of paul, spreading false rumors is a crime, oh yeah, that is only if you are Bearish or Lehish or Fannish or Freddish or ………..

Good Grief, Charlie Brown. Military conflict in Africa? Whatever shall we do?

Guest on 2008-07-30 20:34:16It may be if they are false (i.e., not backed up by the numbers) with the intent to deceive and profit Check out how level 2 and 3 assets are valued under GAAP or reserve losses on loans, that is ipso facto a crime in of itself. Or check out how much money Paulson made from the appreciation in his Goldman stock, the day he bailed Bear out with public funds, $20 to 50 million at least.

The common people must not be human shields for the banks. How do we organize to protect ourselves against such exploitation?People say the voters shouldn’t stand for it. But (putting aside concern about rigged elections) what if the choice in the election is between tweedledum and tweedledee? The system has long been broken, what will work?

PSI meant "fought to deregulate"

Sorry,I meant to say "CNBC clowns & bimbos are criminals."Good Luck to all.

someone posted the current situation is like "the battle of the bulge"-i agree, they have lost the war, this is just time delaying tactics, setting up minefields, boobby traps,a lot of Bear Soldiers will die along the way, and for those who lucky enough to reach and see with their own eyes Wall street(paulson/ben) bunkers, i suspect they will at that time ask from senate (like the magnitude of bailing out of F&F)to pass an emergency bills (such as prohibiting ownership of gold, ban currency trading or ban short selling –which is happening NOW!!!)and deliver the final ultimate deadblow ala star wars deathstar explosion—boom—–silence….after floating and spreading across the globe, fallout particles of CDO’s,SIV’s, SWF’s falls to earth, cleansed..slowly but surely survivors emerged from the forest and woods, amazed at the sight of total destruction..

Anonymous: "what if the choice in the election is between tweedledum and tweedledee? "It’s looking more and more like that to me. We’re sitting on the edge of a precipice here. With the national debt running at $9.5 trillion right now, what does the Administration and Congress do? Pump up the debt ceiling to $10.6 trillion. Unbelievable !!!!!You’d think that any candidate with an IQ larger bigger a shellfish would grasp the notion that America is facing a grave economic crisis. Instead, McCain wants to continue the wars, and Obama wants to spend $$ on health and education as soon as he gets into office. We AIN’T got anything left to spend, guys! They’ve already announced that the 2009 fiscal deficit will be a record breaker. I could find 5′th graders who could understand the problem … and suggest better solutions.PeteCA

Bear Stearns is defunct, but stern bears provisioned with knowledge and some capital will make Wall Street think "Fredericksburg" or "Mortain" or "Stalingrad" or " El Alamein". Money removed, they are the most callow of men and fit only for the bone-and-grist mills. Fertilize my fields with the bones on moneymakers without merit.

Pete-write in Ron Paul. He DOES understand….

@ wawawa Re: Paulso, that Capitalism HeroSorry but I hate you That was a 3:30min torture, I could not withstand it beyond the first minute.

Blooming Deserts Turn Israeli Water Industry Into Money MagnetBy Tal BarakEnlarge Image/DetailsJuly 30 (Bloomberg) — At the end of a road winding through Israel’s Negev desert, the entrance to Kibbutz Hatzerim is flanked by jojoba shrubs jutting from the arid earth.The grove is the result of drip irrigation developed by Israeli engineer Simcha Blass in the 1960s that enabled the kibbutzniks to farm the desert. The company they started, Netafim Ltd., has sold the product in 110 countries from Germany to Peru.“The founders were living in the middle of the desert and saw one agricultural failure after the other,” Naty Barak, 64, a director at Netafim, said at the kibbutz visitors center. “Back then it was their problem, but now it’s a global necessity.”Today, some 300 Israeli companies make equipment to deliver water or purify it with lasers or diffusion, putting them in a position to profit as climate change, population growth and food shortages strain supplies. With agriculture accounting for about two-thirds of global water use, the Israeli government predicts overseas sales of the technology will top $10 billion by 2017.As a result, the businesses are attracting investors. Amiad Filtration Systems Ltd., which will help manage sewage treatment at the Beijing Olympics, is up 49 percent in the past year in London, giving it a market value of about $75 million.Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of tractors and combines, on June 5 agreed to buy Israel’s Plastro Irrigation Systems Ltd., Netafim’s main competitor in agricultural irrigation, for an undisclosed sum.`Track Record’More than 1.1 billion people, mostly in Africa and Asia, don’t have clean drinking water, according to the World Health Organization. Global food prices, meanwhile, surged 57 percent in March from a year earlier, United Nations data show.“There is a growing lack of water in the world, and people are realizing now that it’s an issue that’s gaining momentum,” said Nir Belzer, managing partner of Tel Aviv-based Gaon Agro Industries Ltd.’s $65 million clean-technology fund. “In Israel, there’s already a track record for water companies.”Belzer’s fund invested in closely held Desalitech Ltd., a Tel Aviv-based company that invented a way to take salt out of water using 20 percent less energy than standard reverse osmosis.Amiad, founded 45 years ago on a kibbutz, developed what it calls “suction scanning,” a new way of filtering pollutants from water. It has a contract to remove iron from drinking water in Ramenskoye, a town near Moscow.Atlantium Technologies Ltd. uses ultraviolet light to zap deadly organisms, a method employed by Coca-Cola Co.`Conservative Market’Two-thirds of Israel is desert. In the Arava region, south of Hatzerim, the average annual rainfall is less than 50 millimeters (2 inches). Wastewater there is cleaned for drip irrigation to grow fruit and vegetables, 80 percent of which are exported to Europe, Barak said.Israel’s Water Authority started a countrywide campaign in July to conserve resources as the Sea of Galilee, the main source of drinking water, dries up.Israeli companies still face challenges finding investors and developing sales. While demand for water is high, few customers are willing to commit to new products, said Oded Distel, director at the Ministry of Industry, Trade & Labor.“Israeli water-technology companies are dealing with a very conservative market that isn’t always tempted to try the most innovative solutions,” Distel said. “Municipalities around the world are hesitant to try a new technology.”With Netafim’s system, farmers bury pipelines underground, allowing them to drip water and fertilizers directly onto the roots of their crops through devices that control the pressure and quality of the liquid.Going GlobalThe company expects to double sales within a few years, according to Chief Executive Officer Ofer Bloch. Sales increased 25 percent to $500 million in 2007.“An amazing agronomic knowledge has developed in Israel in the past 40 years, which we are now selling to the world,” Bloch, 48, said at his Tel Aviv office.One Netafim customer, Sociedad Agricola Drokasa SA in Peru, uses 10,000 miles of drip irrigation hoses. The company, known as Agrokasa, picked Netafim 12 years ago when starting production of avocados, asparagus and grapes.“We contacted Netafim because we weren’t just looking for hose, plastic or dripper suppliers, we were looking for a partner in technology,” Jose Chlimper, Agrokasa’s chief, said by telephone from the company’s base in Lima.The global water industry, which includes waste treatment, valves, pumps, filtration and desalination equipment, is worth about $400 billion, according to Francesca McCann, an analyst at Stanford Group Co., a Washington-based research company.“There was little incentive to conserve water, but now with rising commodity prices and the climate change, that will boost demand for more efficient technologies,” McCann said.The market will reach $537 billion by 2010, according to Israel’s Ministry of Industry, Trade & Labor.At Kibbutz Hatzerim, surrounded by grass and trees, Barak displayed the first adapted hose used on the site.“About 60 years ago, there was nothing here, only a dry wasteland,” said Barak, a kibbutznik for four decades. “This was the start of the development of a serious industry.”To contact the reporter on this story: Tal Barak in Tel Aviv at tbarak@bloomberg.netLast Updated: July 29, 2008 19:12 EDT

Im writing in Ron Paul. He is the only one who understands. Pat Buchanan is another who has written passionately about the wrong direction we have taken under Bush II.

Prof. Roubini, no it’s decoupling alright, the global growth wheels have come off while the merchantilist trade bus hurtles to the abyss. Another food for thought quote for LB,"The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits."-Albert EinsteinAfter Central Banks of New Zealand, Australia, ECB and now India have successfully strangled their economies with high interest rates, we await more global stupidity.Cheers to US Alhpa!————————————@Guest on 2008-07-30 15:41:07 wrote: I live in California: perhaps you could come here and explain to us how the “USA tries to keep out ‘undesirable’ immigrants" and “the absurd requirements” of our immigration policy.@Guest, we’ve kept out desirable student immigrants ($100,000 earning Indian and Chinese graduating from Qinghua, IIT and US Universities (in that order). After Hank does a ‘fisc’, we’ll need to reverse our ‘absurd requirements’ so that we can fund the coming tax bill. Best,P1AQL aka Limited Genius

One more very good post by Steve Waldman, very much in line with the discussion around here: what does saving mean, how to put savings to work (for real), savers’ plan B is hoarding (ouch!), the blame lies on Wall Street. Very clear as always:http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1217494669.shtml

@Guest on 2008-07-31 03:10:25 wrote: bwwaahahahabwaahahahaAnd you thought you had seen only the homes of the genius? Take a flight, head over to Shanghai and Mumbai where there are empty apartments with elevator parking and movie theatres with gourmet a la carte dining. Talk about homes of the stupid. Enjoy the sun out there is So Cal!P1AQL

Are we in the summer lull or is this just the lull forever ?Suspect its the latter"The Great Lull" is upon us

apparently, Federal Reserve Act is useless, because no one is enforcing it now.Soon constitution and democracy will become useless too. Never underestimate the power of dark side.“The whole idea” of the rules in the Federal Reserve Act is “to make it costly and difficult to support an insolvent institution.”http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/housing-bailout-bill-also-eased-having.html

P1AQL: "The Asians only know Plan B (either buy treasuries or keep savings under a mattress or in real-estate)."Plan B means hoarding real stuff, treasuries and even cash are not real stuff. Real estate is.

Open the oil fund window…

From time-to-time I try to imagine the background and status in life of the participants on this forum, because y’all seem so angry sometimes Well, according to this WSJ oped piece, we are either extreme liberals or such a small fraction of the population it cannot be measured!Where’s the Outrage? Really – By ARTHUR C. BROOKS – July 31, 2008 – Page A15In May 2008, the Gallup Organization asked 1,200 American adults how many days in the past week they had felt "outraged." The average number of angry days was 1.17, and 54% of those surveyed said none. Only one in 20 reported being outraged every day…Indeed, we are less angry today than a decade ago. Let’s look back to the glory days of the 1990s, when — according to the media narrative — we enjoyed uninterrupted peace and prosperity. In 1996, the General Social Survey asked exactly the same "outrage" question of 1,500 adults. Then, only 38% had not been outraged at all in the past week. The average number of angry days was 1.5 per week, 29% higher than at present.Only one major group in the population has gotten angrier: people who call themselves "very liberal." While conservatives, moderates and nonextreme liberals all have seen their average levels of outrage fall over the past 12 years, the number of angry days among our leftiest neighbors has risen 56% (to 2.28 from 1.46), and the percentage with no angry days in the past week has fallen to 31% from 37%. Today, very liberal people spend more than twice as much time feeling angry as do political moderates. One in seven is outraged seven days a week…. anger does not translate very well into lower levels of happiness. In fact, extreme liberals were more likely than moderates in 2008 to say they were "very happy" about their lives (28% to 25%). This is of a piece with a growing body of political research which finds that people on the extreme left (and extreme right) tend to be quite a bit happier than those with more moderate views.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121746010408198765.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

ptm: "As NR predicted, the credit contagion is spreading. NBC Today show aired a segment on how car leasing is drying up. It’s more difficult to obtain a car lease, and if one does, then it will be at higher prices."The ratings on bonds for all our major auto manufacturers have put them in the category of junk bonds. They are in real trouble raising money now, because of soaring interest rates. One current casualty is the car leasing market.We’re clearly headed for major problems in both the US auto and banking sectors in the 3′rd and 4′th quarters of 2008. This means that we will likely be seeing major players go bankrupt. I just checked the list of questionable banks in California yesterday. There are now over 100 banks in California alone that are rated with a "D", and six more that are rated with an "E". No need to say where this is going.Normally, this would be pretty bad news. But the amazing thing is … it’s not even the worst part of the message any more. The latest projections from the credit markets are showing a trend for soaring corporate defaults and bankruptcies – and this wave is not really expected to start in earnest until ’09. I’ve gotta’ say that the level of complacency out there on the streets is amazing. Here’s one anecdote. My wife warned a guy a few weeks ago to consider moving his money out of IndyMac bank in California. The guy wouldn’t have anything to do with it. His comment: "I don’t want to leave that bank – they’re giving me such a good deal on interest rates!". Not only this, but he had a sum of money that was well over the FDIC limit. Naturally, the outcome was that he recently spent 8 hours standing on the street waiting in line to try to get his money back. I doubt he’ll get it all. I just don’t know what to say about this kind of behavior.ptm recently made a comment on this blog about crime rates in America in the 1970′s. I’d say we’re definitely headed back there. America’s big cities are going to see soaring unemployment and poverty. And this will turn into a vicious rise in crime rates. My guess is that we’ll see this trend materialize in ’09 (but in some places it could be much earlier).PeteCA

hello NR,your recession call is off the mark again, what is with that?GDP "grew at an annual rate of 1.9%"http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080731/economy.html

Interesting article by Richard Benson this morning on Financial Sense. He points out that with falling tax revenues expected in 2009, the real budget deficit for ’09 is more like $600 billion. This is over $100 billion higher than the official estaimtes that were stated by the Gov’t just a few days ago (and that was already a record-breaking deficit!).Here is the link:http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/benson/2008/0730.htmlPeteCA

How friggin convenient!!! LIARS!!!! From the GDP report:Measured GDP inflation slowed sharply due to technical quirks in the overall price index. Second quarter real GDP posted a 1.9 percent annualized gain, following a revised 0.9 percent rise the prior quarter… On the inflation front, the GDP price index rose an annualized 1.1 percent – down from the first quarter increase of 2.6 percent but the deceleration was a statistical quirk.

no recession in the usa, as far as the printing machine is working.I have told you lovely bears many times this is just a matter of money.

11:11 a.m.White House says U.S. avoided recession

White House says U.S. avoided recession…but will run straight into depression…

@Guest “11:11 a.m.White House says U.S. avoided recession…”Isn’t this the same White House that bailed out Bonnie and Clyde, I mean Fannie and Freddie? And, oh yes, Katrina? I agree with tutterfrut, looks like Little Boots avoided a recession and hit a depression.

RE: This nugget from P1AQL:President Jiang Zemin of the People’s Republic of China called Nasdaq “the crown jewel of all that is great about America.” He and other foreign leaders view Nasdaq as the key to the capital formation model they seek to spur innovation, prosperity and growth in their own countries.That’s why the Nasdaq (and the investment banks) are the crown jewels – the real channel for putting savings to work (for real).We’re not perfect. We’re just relatively better off.I wouldn’t have conflated NASDAQ with the investment banks. NASDAQ is a market for innovative, small-cap companies to raise equity. The investment banks have historically prepared the paperwork and syndicated the first release of the equity into that market, but they aren’t the market.There are many other mechanisms to achieve the "prepare paperwork and syndicate the initial subscription" of securities. The dot-com bomb of the nineties, and the rapacious mis-allocation/fraud of this century can fairly be ascribed to the investment banks. The IBs need replacement with a mechanism that is less prone to fraud and abuse.Let’s keep the baby and throw out the dirty bathwater.

Only one in 20 reported being outraged every day…anti depressants are working …

scapegoating and pointing mr. hong has a long global trend /parabolic these days http://hrw.org/english/docs/1998/02/11/indone8880.htm"Indonesia Alert: Economic Crisis Leads to Scapegoating of Ethnic Chinese(02/11/97) — The rise in prices of basic goods such as rice and cooking oil has led to violent protests across Indonesia, much of it aimed at the ethnic Chinese minority who dominate the retail economy. The rioting appears to have been largely spontaneous, but Human Rights Watch believes that senior government and military officials have fueled anti-Chinese sentiment through veiled references to "rats" and "traitors" and by their failure to explain that high prices and food shortages are not the fault of individual retailers. Human Rights Watch calls on the government to state explicitly that the ethnic Chinese are a valued and important part of Indonesian society and that violence against them and their property will not be tolerated. Denouncing communal violence in generic terms is not enough."

those monsters raped and massacred many innocent chinese women, men, and children for their government’s lies and mistakes.scapegoating and pointing mr. hong has a long global trend /parabolic these dayshttp://hrw.org/english/docs/1998/02/11/indone8880.htm

we will blame it on Jew in this country like when we thrown many innocent Japanese into prison during WWII. prepare to declare end of democracy and rise of XXXX.

Yet another advantage (disadvantage for some) of that scheme is that everyone has access to the IPO, not just the friends of the IB.

Free Tibet, thanks. I was just ribbin’ you a little bit.We should disintermediate the IBs, and the Realtors. The internet is suitable for both jobs. By the way a few years ago I remember reading about how the IBs wanted to replace the Realtors with a more efficient auction marketplace of their design. Doesn’t take much to be more efficient than Realtors! 7% commission, gimme a break!!

anonymous – just wondering how that would look. Craig’s list of IPO’s?

"Free Tibet" is delusional. Like free democracy and free market are delusional. in the end, this world will only be toyed in the hand of few privileged elites. anyone think there is gonna be free world is complete retard.