uno

Stock crash comin your way….

@ GuestDo you really think a stock crash is coming????? Come on…..the PPT has been showing for many months they will not let the market crash. They might let it settle down slowly but not crash. Let’s be honest here…………Just my opinion.

London Banker, thanks for your always thoughtful comments on this forum and for your writings on the Finance & Markets Monitor. I always enjoy reading them and it was a great pleasure meeting in London. Nouriel

@ London Banker Overcapacity –Unfortunately worries about overcapacity led to US government policies in the Great Depression to cut production in order to raise prices, such as agricultural set asides, re-sale price maintenance laws, NRA industry codes, etc. In my view, this made the situation worse.I agree that monetary policy alone cannot cure a depression; only demand stimulation through military spending (financed through deficit spending monetized by the Fed) cured the Depression. However, Fed action against inflation could reduce demand further.Unfortunately, we already have huge deficit spending on the military, so there is not much room for further stimulation.

IMO the problem begins from the fact that the Iranian nuclear program keeps oil prices high and OPEC countries are very aware about that. Probably nearby Arabian countries gonna start worrying, if Iran ever possesses an atomic bomb, because a hydrogen one is way too high for their technology level ever to achieve development of a such weapon, but the Arabian (Muslim) atomic bomb, is the (only) way to keep the fear level sky rocketing and the oil prices much leveraged forever. So probably Saudi Arabia may show some fear (just for the eyes of the public) about the mad (Iranian) Arab, but in the meanwhile, the Iranian nuclear stuff feeds the Saudi Arabian profit as well.So whatever UN can offer to Iran (and Co. because no matter the fear of the Iranian hegemony, all the OPEC countries see – in private of course – the Iranian nuclear program as the next generation of oil prices inflation financial instruments – the first one is the Iraqi violence), the financial gains from obeying to the rules would be a tiny reward compared to the HUGE (say -30%) drop in the prices of the exported oil in no time. So no justification is possible by now, and probably for years.US government knows, that without cheap oil the game of a bullish revamp for the US economy is almost impossible no matter how many stimulus packages are laid around, so they have to terminate Iranian nuclear program by proxy (aka Israel) but this isn’t any more just a geopolitical issue. It’s a money issue and we mean … lots of money. OPEC has been used for almost 5 years of higher and higher and higher oil prices, it’s more than a bit difficult to be persuaded to change the trend without a broader war (that means a battlefield containing more land, than only the one within Iran, Iraq and of course Afghanistan). Russia from the other hand, needs the instability as well for its own income (aka high oil and natural gas prices) and OPEC countries are aware that even if the US economy falls into recession and lowers its demand, China and India would be in the corner to fill the gap.So we have 4 players: US, OPEC, Russia, Chindia it’s gonna be a tough game of poker (or bridge). Israel and Iran act pretty good as proxies of US and OPEC by now, they can’t be considered as the real players, even though the substantial conflict between them. It’s gonna be bad … really, especially since food inflation is a reason that OPEC exporters won’t see any good in a severe oil prices drop.

OT, but I’m reading the source report re:40% taxation rate in the U.S. It get interesting around page 24. This example is around page 27:This income ($25K, roughly two full-time minimum wage jobs) places the couple about 30 percent above the federal poverty line, but is low enough that the whole family is eligible for Medicaid benefits in Massachusetts. Recall that this household has two dependent children, both of whom are college bound. It also has a $75,000 house with a fifteen year remaining mortgage whose balance is just over $30,000.Because of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Medicaid, and other benefits provided by federal and state transfer programs, this household has net income of just over $40,000 per year. If the couple earns additional wage income, several things will happen.First, every additional dollar earned will generate a clawback of the EITC at the rate of 21 cents per dollar earned. More importantly, if the couple earns enough additional income, it will lose eligibility for roughly $15,000 in Medicaid benefits. The figure showing marginal net tax rates levied on this household’s current labor supply identify where these rates become extremely high. This occurs at points where the households’ incomes exceed income-test thresholds for the various transfer programs.One way to appreciate the size of work disincentives facing this household is toask how much more it must earn, after losing all its benefits, to achieve the same living standard it enjoys when earning $25,000 and receiving all its benefits. The answer is roughly $50,000. I.e., the couple has to double its earnings simply to break even with respect to maintaining its living standard. Such high net taxes apply to all low-income households, regardless of age or marital status.So double your money or don’t bother in this case. The paper is based on benefits in MA. I don’t think TX benefits are as generous or as easy to qualify for. Seems like everyone may benefit from a tax planner.

@ Hlowe“People” can be silly. In bubble runs, just having the right name can pay off. If there is a solar energy run, the car “solaris” will likely catch a wave or 2 of stray stupidity.With that said… I love spreadsheets. (thank you Microsoft.) …and I love “tech”. …put them together and you have something that Dr Evil would love too! Kinda like Solaris. It’s Ironic. The Chainsaw

Looking for a Job?(If you are well educated)http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af38bff4-3be9-11dd-9cb2-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=4b9b2cb6-2285-11dd-93a9-000077b07658.htmlGermans eye kindergarten for next engineersBy Richard Milne in ViennaGermany’s shortage of engineers has become so acute that some of its leading companies are turning to nursery schools to guarantee future supplies.Industrial giants such as Siemens and Bosch are among hundreds of companies giving materials and money to kindergartens to try to interest children as young as three in technology and science.Many European countries from Switzerland to Spain suffer shortages of graduates. But the problem is especially acute in Germany, renowned as a land of engineering. German companies have 95,000 vacancies for engineers and only about 40,000 are trained, according to the engineers’ association.“It is a new development in that we have seen we need to start very early with children. Starting at school is not good enough – we need to help them to understand as early as possible how things work,” said Maria Schumm-Tschauder, head of Siemens’ Generation21 education programme.Wolfgang Malchow, board member for human resources at Bosch, said: “We are working with kindergartens. This is our future and we need to seize it.”Heribert Rohrbeck, chief executive of Bürkert, a leading fluid-control systems company that also works with nursery schools, said: “We want to excite children about technology from the earliest age. What they learn then can stay with them for the rest of their lives.”Siemens has provided about 3,000 “discovery boxes” filled with science experiments for three to six-year-olds to kindergartens throughout Germany, at a cost to the company of €500 ($775) a box. It also trains teachers on how to use them as well as providing similar boxes around the world to pre-schools from China to Ireland.Bosch sends its apprentices to kindergartens “to explain what they do at work and then later invite them to look around the company”. Franz Fehrenbach, Bosch’s chief executive, said: “Germany is based on innovation – and that needs people.”Companies are also using other strategies from trying to get more girls to take up engineering to working closely with technical colleges. But groups are also increasingly looking abroad.The chairman of one large German industrial group said: “The loser here will be Germany, not the companies. We can always go to Asia to find our engineers. So everything we can do here – even something like going into kindergartens – helps.”

@darkdude:Iran is not an Arab country. They speak a different language and are ethnically different. Moslems are not a monolithic block; the country with the largest moslem population is Indonesia. I think India is second. Iran is a long way from getting a bomb, and if it does it won’t be a "moslem bomb."The Iran/ Iraq war was essentially an Arab/ Persian war with the Saudis and Gulf Arabs backing Iraq.Besides, so what if Iran does get a bomb? Israel’s bombs have not helped it defeat Hezbollah or Hamas. Nuclear weapons are a waste of money. An Iranian nuclear weapon would not be used against Israel, despite what Olmert might say; Mutually Assured Destruction would still work to deter an attack by either. It is being used by politicians in both Israel and the US to justify high military spending.The Saudis are getting scared of pushing their customers into recession; however, I don’t think that they have enough spare capacity to lower the price. I think the price will come down in the coming year as the recession spreads globally.

Anyone following what ECRI is saying?

@Guest: “Israel has committed shocking war crimes for several years and stands ready to openly flaunt any international, serious effort to make peace in the region. Its ongoing and systemic murder of thousands of Palestinians is a gross stain on the human record. Israel invaded Lebanon and wasted the nation in 2006, all on the pretext of two (2) kidnapped soldiers…” 2008-06-22 02:39:14What the giant saber-rattlers (the U.S. and Israel) — sitting with thousands of bombs and missiles and fighter planes — are talking about in their war rhetoric is a defenseless country (Iran) that can’t do anything–and the giants are saying, “We need to protect ourselves.” It is so ludicrous.What Guest 02:39:14 is talking about here is the awful threat of extensive military air power that Israel and its parent, the United States, bring to the table. The exercise of that kind of power and the threat of pre-emptive strike need to be put into perspective when considering stark aggression against sovereign nations with vast civilian populations. The only world leader who ever pulled the trigger on nuclear attack, Harry Truman, was criticized for the loss of life in Hiroshima. To that he glibly responded: “I don’t quite understand because there was even greater loss of life in Tokyo with conventional bombers.” Truman’s extensive use of air power on a civilian population came after Japanese air defenses had been destroyed. The first attack on Tokyo had killed 140,000 Japanese. Wave after wave of American bombers came in, with practically no resistance from the ground or from the air.This is the unchecked use of unequal power. At the point a nation’s people begin talking about war, they need to understand what unequal power means to human life. It’s always “weapons this and weapons that,” but it’s always the innocent families and their children who pay the price.

And to follow up on London Banker’s earlier comment: he nailed it IMHO! Asian overcapacity will come into play as buying dries up in the West. Not only will prices decrease, but look for major economic dislocations in Asia.

And to follow up on London Banker’s earlier comment: he nailed it IMHO! Asian overcapacity will come into play as buying dries up in the West. Not only will prices decrease, but look for major economic dislocations in Asia.Written by Anonymous on 2008-06-23 18:02:49This doesn’t matter we are all sub prime now. I feel that China and the EU will catch a cold but it’s nothing compared what wrong with the US.This only get bad after China host the OOOO.jo6paclet the games begin

Russia Risks Armed Clash in Abkhazia to Stop Georgia NATO Bid<br><br>By Henry Meyer<br><br>June 24 (Bloomberg) — Almost 20 years after the Cold War ended, Russia’s neighbor Georgia has become a new flashpoint for tensions with the West.<br><br>Russia wants Georgia, its former Soviet possession, to stay out of NATO so badly it is risking armed conflict to support the breakaway region of Abkhazia. In the past two months, Russia has sent almost 1,000 troops into Abkhazia, established direct economic ties with it and downed an unmanned Georgian spy plane.<br><br>An outbreak of fighting between Georgia, a U.S. ally, and Russia would provoke the worst crisis in East-West ties since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It also would undermine Russia as it prepares to host the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, 30 miles from the Abkhaz border.<br><br>“The risk of the high level of brinkmanship exploding into conflict has gotten higher,” said Andrew Kuchins, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a phone interview. “Russia has upped the ante.”<br><br>Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin see the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to Georgia and Ukraine as a U.S. bid to usurp Russia’s influence in its backyard. The two leaders also are in conflict with the U.S. over a planned missile shield in former Soviet bloc countries Poland and the Czech Republic, which they see as a threat to Russia’s nuclear capability.<br><br>`Negative Confrontation’<br><br>Moving Georgia “artificially into NATO” would “certainly lead to another spiral of very, very negative confrontation,” Medvedev, 43, told Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, at a meeting in St. Petersburg on June 6.<br><br>Officials in Georgia, the route for a pipeline carrying Caspian oil to Western European markets, have denounced what they call Russia’s “annexation” of Abkhazia. Georgia is stepping up preparations for an offensive, said the Brussels- based International Crisis Group in a report this month.<br><br>The most recent confrontation occurred on June 17, when Georgian police detained four Russian soldiers, confiscating what they said were 20 anti-tank missiles. The Russian military said it would respond with force to further “provocations.”<br><br>Since the U.S. and its European allies in NATO promised Georgia and Ukraine, another former Soviet neighbor, eventual membership at an April summit in Bucharest, Russia has taken a series of military steps that have angered Georgia.<br><br>New Troops<br><br>Russia deployed 400 troops to Abkhazia on May 31, saying they were needed to rebuild a railway track. In April, Russia bolstered its UN-sanctioned peacekeeping force in Abkhazia with an additional 550 troops equipped with heavy artillery, on top of the 2,000 peacekeepers there already.<br><br>On April 20, a Russian fighter jet shot down a Georgian unmanned reconnaissance plane over Abkhazia, according to a United Nations investigation.<br><br>Abkhaz border guard Tengiz Manaka saw the wreckage fall to the ground. The 23-year-old raced to the top of a watchtower on the seafront to keep a lookout for Georgian warplanes. “We thought war was about to break out,” he said.<br><br>Abkhazia, slightly larger than the U.S. state of Delaware at 3,300 square miles, is a subtropical Black Sea territory dotted with palm trees that was once a favorite playground of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.<br><br>Refugees<br><br>Since the territory split from Georgia in 1991, sparking a two-year conflict that killed up to 20,000 people and the exodus of 240,000 Georgian refugees, Russian peacekeepers have been policing an uneasy cease-fire.<br><br>“The Russians are trying to destabilize Georgia and prevent us from joining NATO,” said Georgia’s State Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration, Giorgi Baramidze, in an interview in Tbilisi. “We are doing our best to stay as calm as possible, especially now when aggression is continuing.”<br><br>Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Boris Malakhov said in a phone interview that Russian forces stationed in Abkhazia for more than a decade have “succeeded in keeping the peace and avoiding a resumption of hostilities.”<br><br>The U.S., which has trained and equipped Georgia’s military and in 2006 approved almost $300 million in aid over five years, says Russia’s tactics will backfire.<br><br>“The longer that Russia remains so provocative and that Georgia remains so responsible, we’ll see support for Georgia’s NATO membership will grow,” said U.S. Undersecretary of State Matt Bryza in a phone interview. The official U.S. position on the breakaway conflict calls for restraint on the part of Georgia and negotiations with Abkhazia.<br><br>Eventual Members<br><br>Georgia and Ukraine failed to win fast-track NATO membership status in April because of opposition from Germany and France. As a compromise, the Western military alliance agreed that both countries will eventually become members.<br><br>For its part, Abkhazia is on a war footing, with 30,000 reservists who keep weapons at home and can deploy with hours’ notice in response to any attack.<br><br>“Our armed forces are on a constant state of alert,” Deputy Defense Minister Gari Kupalba said in an interview in the capital of Sukhumi.<br><br>Nina Khrushcheva, the great-granddaughter of ex-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, says she is concerned that Putin and Saakashvili won’t show the same restraint as Khrushchev and President John F. Kennedy did during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The deployment of Soviet missiles to Cuba brought the U.S. and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war.<br><br>“Who can promise that it won’t get to the point of the Cuban missile crisis?” said Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York. “Both sides are escalating.”<br><br>– With reporting by Helena Bedwell in Tbilisi. Editors: James Hertling, Anne Swardson<br><br>To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Sukhumi, Georgia, through the Moscow newsroom at Hmeyer4@bloomberg.net<br>Last Updated: June 23, 2008 16:00 EDT<br><br><br>HELLO RUSSIA GOOD BYE NATO

Indian Markets are following the chinese path. On a free fall over the last one weekInflation on a 13 year high. Overcapacity (as LB says) is rampant in construction and other sectors.

RandyPlease!We’re talking about 1,800 Rolling Rock beers ago worth of wisdom……….That may very well apply to current world eventsGet with the program RandyThis species has amused itself to death

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSHAF43657420080624Iran denies market talk of strike on atomic sites

@ ESTr1,800 rolling rock beers????? WTF? Get a life and stick to comments about the topic…..which is stagflation. If you can’t stay on topic, don’t go away mad……..just go away!

Currency markets are stuck ignorring risk aversion seen on equities. Just was wondering why JPY and CHF stopped getting stronger. Think it’s a matter of higher yields supporting carry trades and offsetting negative impact of equities. Well stagflation enviroment is working under such a different rules…

Overcapacity: I definitely think that overcapacity will eventually occur with manufactured goods. Yes, this will cause prices to decrease. Lots of manufactured stuff sitting on the docks in China with nowhere to go.But, I don’t think overcapacity will occur with natural resources like food and oil. The Earth is a finite entity and does not expand to create unlimited resources to match the increase of population. Oil prices are a problem, but people just complain and drive less. Food will be a bigger problem. If people go hungry, they may do more than just complain.

The 9/11 crisis brought us increased surveillance and reduced privacy and human rights. What will the economical crisis bring us? According to Peter Schiff:Throughout history, governments have always used crises to justify blatant power grabs. Often the crisis subsides, but the expanded government powers remain. …Similarly, even though our financial crisis has yet to reach full flower, Treasury Secretary Paulson announced plans to give the Federal Reserve new and explicit powers to oversee and regulate the financial services industry.Funny that U.S. is not the only Western country planning on spying more fully on its citizens. Even countries like Sweden that traditionally were neutral and would likely not have many enemies, has recently PASSED a new surveillance law:http://preview.tinyurl.com/4dv5qtAccording to several Swedish newspapers, parliament has now passed the bill by a vote of 143 (for) to 138 (against). Although a number of small changes have supposedly been made to the bill, critics are still unhappy with its breadth. One Ars reader who alerted us to the situation said, "Democracy has died in Sweden today."

PeteCA"So my question of the day is … which countries are the major exporters of light sweet crude?"Gartman has been writing about this the last few days. According to him Brent (from the North Sea), Bonny Light (Nigeria) and West Texas are the light, sweet crudes most suitable for refining into gasoline.THis explains why there are Iranian tankers full of crude doing slow circles on the world’s oceans. Nobody wants the stuff as it is too difficult (costly?) to refine because of its high sulphur content.

PeteCA 2008-06-24 10:01:01 – which countries are the major exporters of light sweet crude?"They are: * Angola * Canada * Colombia * Denmark * Indonesia * Libya * Malaysia * Nigeria * Norway * Sudan * United Kingdom (Brent Crude) * United States (Louisiana Sweet) * United States (West Texas Intermediate a.k.a. Texas Sweet Light)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweet_crudeMy question of the day is: I head one talking head say the 1% increase in world-wide oil demand yields a 20% increase in gasoline price. Can anyone confirm this?

There has been a 3% reversal in the bank stock index, it is now up almost 2%. The Fed gonna lower rates at the expense of the dollar? Hyper-infaltion right around the corner?

Some headlines that some how, one hour later, don’t matter anymore:"US consumer confidence plummets to fifth-lowest reading ever""4 yrs. of housing gains gone""Housing prices off 15% in past year alone, reports S&P/Case-Shiller""UPS at 5-year low""Dow Chemical Doom""United to lay off 950 pilots"

11:32 India raises cash reserve ratio by 50 bp to 8.75%11:31 India’s central bank raises repo rate by 50 bp to 8.5%

@ RandyEStrader has dropped thin but weighty calls several times on big turns and mega-rotations, for that alone I would reconsider your criticisms. Most of the eco-political nonsense here is just black crepe, but real visionary advice is what makes the blog a draw. Try it some time: very, very tough to be right.

Randysorry sorry, just a feeble attempt at humour directed towards the magog fellow, WTF?/ Was still semi-sedated from dentist’s chair, have you ever seen a movie called Marathon Man starring Raymond Babbitt? My dentist looks just like Olivier.Insanity laughs Under Pressure

By Paul Davidson, USA TODAYAs skyrocketing food and gasoline prices strain budgets, utilities are disconnecting many more customers who fall behind on their bills, and even moderate-income households are getting zapped. Electricity and natural gas shutoffs are up at least 15% in several states compared with last year. Totals for some utilities have more than doubled. "We’re seeing a record number of shutoffs," says Mark Wolfe, head of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association, which represents programs that subsidize energy bills. An NEADA survey this month shows 8% of four-member households earning $33,500 to $55,500 have had their power turned off for non-payment. "It’s hitting people in the suburbs with two cars and two kids," Wolfe says.

12:49 Wachovia braces for losses, hires Goldman to parse portfolio

@Alex GreyChina and the gulf are on schedule to ship $800bn of ‘free’ goods and resources to the US. ‘Free’ in the sense that they accept in exchange dollar denominated IOUs backed by falling US productivity and falling US house prices.See http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/ for the details.There you have the difference between NR scenario and the present time.

@Randy: “PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC! THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL FORUM TO AIR YOUR VIEWS!”@ Guest: “Police say three Palestinian rockets hit southern Israel; Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office declares cease-fire over…”@ Nouriel: “Stagflation requires a negative supply-side shock that increases prices while simultaneously reducing output. Stagflationary shocks led to global recession three times in the last 35 years: in 1973-1975, when oil prices spiked following the Yom Kippur War and OPEC embargo; in 1979-1980, following the Iranian Revolution; and in 1990-91, following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Even the 2001 recession – mostly triggered by the bursting high-tech bubble – was accompanied by a doubling of oil prices, following the start of the second Palestinian intifada against Israel. “Today, a stagflationary shock may result from an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. This geopolitical risk mounted in recent weeks as Israel has grown alarmed about Iran’s intentions. Such an attack would trigger sharp increases in oil prices – to well above $200 a barrel…” And Randy thinks economics is separate from politics and war. God help us!Regarding the Professor’s phrase, “following the start of the second Palestinian intifada against Israel,” it should be clear that the economy is affected by conflict, but that there is no “conflict” unless one side resists the aggression. The resistance to Israel’s aggression against Palestinian land and life in this case is called “intifada.” It’s interesting that what “affects the economy” is when the desperate try to fight back.And should Israel attack Iran, there eventually would be no affect on the worldwide economy providing, of course, that the Iranians do not fight back. For those interested in "calm worldwide markets" above principle that would be ideal.

The Dow is set up to plunge 1,000 points…

If you live in the Northeast it will cost you $3,349.70 to heat your home with fuel oil. $922.45 per year with Hardwood in an Energy Efficient EPA Certified Stove$1093.45 per year with Softwood$3,340.20 per year with Electric $1,900.00 per year with Natural Gas$3,920.65 per year with LP (Propane Gas)$1,099.15 per year with CoalStandard home / average home. http://www.hearth.com/fuelcalcWood one of our most precious and available commodities in the US is cheaper than oil? You got to be chitting me

With sentiment so negative don’t be surprised by a strong temporary bear market rally. Short term horizors–cash the chips?

@Guest on 2008-06-24 14:24:01 i hear you but sentiment has been so negative for 2 years now ! do people expect the FED to let down the equity markets tomorrow and allow a further sell-off ? OR is there a firm deep rooted belief by the majority the Fed will always do something to save ?

Sure, they will lower the rates to 1%!!! Good for inflation. LOLOr maybe they will hike rates to 2.5%!!! Good for the anemic economy. LOLDon’t you see that the FED is completely screwed? No ammunition left. My guess: Rates will stay the same and more tough talking. Like e.g. "we have the finger on the trigger and are watching inflation expectations very closely".Only barks, no bites. The FED is just a bunch of asswipes. Look what the ECB will do on July 3rd. They will hike rates, dollar goes down, oil goes up, stock markets plummet. Easy as that!!! LOLEverything else is bullocks!!!

World’s Largest Speculator March 10, 2008 Issue Copyright © 2008 The American Conservative Oil for War After invading one of the most petroleum-rich countries on earth, the U.S. military is running on empty. by Robert Bryce Napoleon famously said that an army marches on its stomach. That may have been true for his 19th-century force. But the modern American military runs on jet fuel—and lots of it. Today the average American G.I. in Iraq uses about 20.5 gallons of fuel every day, more than double the daily volume consumed by U.S. soldiers in Iraq in 2004. Thus, in order to secure the third-richest country on the planet, the U.S. military is burning enormous quantities of petroleum. And nearly every drop of that fuel is imported into Iraq. These massive fuel requirements—just over 3 million gallons per day for Operation Iraqi Freedom, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Energy Support Center—are a key reason for the soaring cost of the war effort. Controlling Iraq’s oil has historically been a vital factor in America’s involvement in Iraq and was always a crucial element of the Bush administration’s plans for the post-Saddam era. Of course, that’s not how the war was sold to the American people. A few months before the invasion, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared that the looming war had “nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil.” The war was necessary, its planners claimed, because Saddam Hussein supported terrorism and, left unchecked, he would unleash weapons of mass destruction on the West. Nevertheless, oil was the foremost strategic focus for the U.S. military in Iraq. The first objectives of the invading forces included the capture of key Iraqi oil terminals and oilfields. On March 20, 2003, Navy SEALs engaged in the first combat of the war when they launched a surprise invasion of the Mina al-Bakr and Khor al-Amaya oil loading terminals in the Persian Gulf. A few hours later, Marine Lt. Therral Childers became the first U.S. soldier to die in combat in the invasion when he was killed fighting for control of the Rumaylah oil field in southern Iraq. Oil was also the first objective when U.S. forces reached Baghdad on April 8. Although the National Library of Iraq, the National Archives, and the National Museum of Antiquities were all looted and in some cases burned, the oil ministry building was barely damaged. That’s because a detachment of American soldiers and a half-dozen assault vehicles were assigned to guard the ministry and its records. After all, the war’s architects had promised that oil money was going to rebuild Iraq after the U.S. military took control. In March 2003, Paul Wolfowitz told a Congressional panel, “The oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years. Now, there are a lot of claims on that money, but … we are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon.” As Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor explained in their 2006 book, Cobra II, “The Pentagon had promised that the reconstruction of Iraq would be ‘self-financing,’ and the preservation of Iraq’s oil wealth was the best-prepared and -resourced component of Washington’s postwar plan.” After the invasion, when inspectors failed to find any weapons of mass destruction, Bush and his supporters changed their story, claiming that the U.S. had invaded Iraq to spread democracy in the Middle East. When democracy failed to materialize, the justification for the invasion turned to oil. During an October 2006 press conference, Bush declared that the U.S. could not “tolerate a new terrorist state in the heart of the Middle East with large oil reserves that could be used to fund its radical ambitions or used to inflict economic damage on the West.” The U.S. military and the new Baghdad government have failed, however, to secure Iraq’s tattered oil sector. As A.F. Alhajji, energy economist and professor at Ohio Northern University, has said, “whoever controls Iraq’s oil, controls Iraq.” For the last five years, it’s never been exactly clear who controls Iraq’s oil. That said, the country’s leading industry is slowly increasing output. In January, daily production hit 2.4 million barrels per day, the highest level since the U.S. invasion. But America’s presence in Iraq isn’t making use of the local riches. Indeed, little, if any, Iraqi oil is being used by the American military. Instead, the bulk of the fuel needed by the U.S. military is being trucked in from the sprawling Mina Abdulla refinery complex, which lies a few dozen kilometers south of Kuwait City. In 2006 alone, the Defense Energy Support Center purchased $909.3 million in motor fuel from the state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. In addition to the Kuwaiti fuel, the U.S. military is trucking in fuel from Turkey. But some of that Turkish fuel actually originates in refineries as far away as Greece. In 2007 alone, the U.S. military in Iraq burned more than 1.1 billion gallons of fuel. (American Armed Forces generally use a blend of jet fuel known as JP-8 to propel both aircraft and automobiles.) About 5,500 tanker trucks are involved in the Iraqi fuel-hauling effort. That fleet of trucks is enormously costly. In November 2006, a study produced by the U.S. Military Academy estimated that delivering one gallon of fuel to U.S. soldiers in Iraq cost American taxpayers $42—and that didn’t include the cost of the fuel itself. At that rate, each U.S. soldier in Iraq is costing $840 per day in fuel delivery costs, and the U.S. is spending $923 million per week on fuel-related logistics in order to keep 157,000 G.I.s in Iraq. Given that the Iraq War is now costing about $2.5 billion per week, petroleum costs alone currently account for about one-third of all U.S. military expenditure in Iraq. Soaring fuel costs are largely a product of the fact that U.S. forces have been forced to defend themselves against improvised explosive devices. The majority of American casualties in Iraq have been due to IED attacks, primarily on motor vehicles. The U.S. military has spent billions of dollars on electronic countermeasures to combat the deadly devices, but those countermeasures have largely failed. Instead, the troops have had to rely on old-fashioned hardened steel. Since the beginning of the war, the Pentagon has introduced numerous programs to add armor skins to its fleet of Humvees. But even the newest armored Humvees, which weigh about six tons, haven’t been enough to protect soldiers against the deadly explosives. Last year, Congress, the White House, and the Pentagon agreed on a four-year plan to spend about $20 billion on a fleet of 23,000 mine-resistant ambush protection vehicles or MRAPs. Last August, the Pentagon ordered 1,520 of the vehicles at a cost of $3.5 million each. The MRAPs mean even greater demand for fuel from U.S. troops in Iraq. An armored Humvee covers perhaps 8 miles per gallon of fuel. One version of the MRAP, the Maxxpro, weighs about 40,000 pounds, and according to a source within the military, gets just 3 miles per gallon. The increased demand for fuel for the MRAPs will come alongside the need for an entirely new set of tires, fan belts, windshields, alternators, and other gear. This swelling of the logistics train creates yet another problem for the military: an increase in supply trucks on the road, which demands yet more fuel and provides insurgents with a greater range of targets to attack. While the U.S. military chases its own fuel tail in Iraq, a country that sits atop 115 billion barrels of oil—about 9.5 percent of the world’s total—the global energy industry is racing forward with new alliances and deals, many of which would have been unthinkable before the invasion. Those alliances have far-reaching significance for America’s foreign and energy policy. The world’s oil market is no longer
shaped by U.S. military power. Markets are trumping militarism. As one analyst put it recently, dollars are replacing “bullets as shapers of the geopolitical picture.” The importance of this point is obvious: as the effectiveness of militarism in controlling global energy trends is declining, the U.S. is spending billions of dollars a week in Mesopotamia on a war effort that—if John McCain is right—could drain the American treasury for decades to come. Meanwhile, America’s key rivals, China and Russia in particular, are using their influence to forge economic alliances that are realigning the global balance of power. They are creating a multi-polar world in which America’s influence will be substantially diminished. This realignment is particularly advantageous for major energy exporting …

BB aka Werewolf of London…er…Warshington.

sorry i forgot…..There has been no explanation for the sudden wire transfer activity, although the rumor mill suggests fears of a sudden economic collapse and/or a U.S. and Israeli military

Hail ES Hail ES Hail ESi, shall from this time on, call you sir, ES Caesar,as a token of my appreciation, i present to you a gift,all of the prettiest girls from across the continent for your "viewing" pleasureRespect and Honour

United Nations Federal Credit Unionhttp://www.unfcu.org/We will be performing maintenance on Thursday, 26 June at 3:00 a.m. until 5:00 a.m. EST (New York). During this time, you may be unable to access Internet Banking. Thank you for your understanding. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Re: Money being pulled out of New York City banks Quote Dont panic, that is not completely correct. What it means is thatthose well financed holders of large deposits are trading theirfunds in overseas managed collateral financial instruments.This means that funds can stay there, and act as a PPP instrumentfor other trades that are higher yielding than letting it sit in banks.During times of high inflation, these movements are regular andexpected by the FED.

Only a few months ago, we were worried about a financial meltdown and deflation. Now the fears of a meltdown have abated, and global inflation has replaced deflation as the big threat to the world economy. What a change! How confusing! One is tempted to put everything under the mattress and go into hibernation.

Revealed: Hedge fund managers betting on plunge in bank sharesBy Nick ClarkTuesday, 24 June 2008 *Revealed: Hedge fund managers betting on plunge in bank sharesBy Nick ClarkTuesday, 24 June 2008The American hedge fund group Harbinger Capital Partners revealed that it has made a significant bet on HBOS’s price falling, while its UK counterpart GLG admitted it is targeting the rival mortgage bank Bradford & Bingley, as investors were forced yesterday to disclose their short positions to the market for the first time.The Financial Services Authority shocked the trading community a fortnight ago when it announced that investors would be compelled to disclose short positions of more than 0.25 per cent of share capital in companies carrying out rights issues.The announcements started on Friday, and continued yesterday with 20 investors, predominantly hedge funds, disclosing short positions in seven companies that are in the process of carrying out rights issues.A spokeswoman for the FSA said the regulator was happy with yesterday’s results: "Companies have been making disclosures, and this further transparency will help the market."The most prominent two announcements related to UK banks, which have turned to shareholders to bolster their capital in recent weeks in the wake of the credit crunch.Harbinger Capital Partners, run by the former Barclays Capital trading boss Philip Falcone, revealed that it held 3.29 per cent of HBOS’s market capital on loan. Harbinger is a US fund that focuses on distressed investment situations, and its HBOS position is valued at about £348m.GLG Partners, the UK hedge fund that listed in the US last year, said it had taken more than 7 per cent in Bradford & Bingley.John Godden, a managing partner at Alternative Investment Solutions, said these positions were "chunky", but added: "They are … not irregular. There is much more money being put to work by hedge funds now than several years ago, so inevitably the plays are larger."The FSA said short selling, which profits from a stock’s fall in value, was a legitimate practice, but added that the sensitivity of share prices around the time of a rights issue left them vulnerable to market abuse.Critics complained that the regulator had not opened the issue up to enough consultation, and said the move had been politically motivated.Mr Godden said it was unsurprising that so few funds had announced short positions. He said that many would have unwound their holdings this week. "Now it means those that haven’t can be traded against," he added.The regulator has a market abuse team that will be actively monitoring for companies who have not disclosed their short positions. Several announcements came in late. The FSA spokeswoman said: "We will probably just have a little word to find out what’s going on, but nothing more than that."It emerged yesterday that only three companies still hold short positions in HBOS, the bank that kicked off the debate after a sharp fall in its share price in March was partly blamed on short selling. The FSA was convinced at the time that the bank had fallen victim to market abuse, but yesterday admitted it had failed to find sufficient evidence to back up the claims.Beyond Harbinger, HBOS is being shorted by Meditor Capital Management, with 0.30 per cent, and Lansdowne Partners, with 0.58 per cent. HBOS’s shares fell 4.25 per cent to 270.25p yesterday, below the group’s rights issue price.

AEA Chief: Iran Could Make Nuke In 6 Months CBS News Interactive: About IranDUBAI, United Arab Emirates (CBS) ― The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Iran could create a nuclear weapon in six months.IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei spoke on Al-Arabiya television on June 20, discussing Iran’s nuclear program, and the potential for the Middle Eastern country to produce a nuclear weapon."If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least, considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has…It would need at least six months to one year," ElBaradei said."Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon," he said.His interviewer then asked "If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months to produce [nuclear] weapons?"The IAEA chief answered, "It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon."The ElBaradei interview was conducted one day after reports emerged of a large-scale military exercise by Israel.U.S. officials said they thought the Israeli exercises were meant to warn Iran of Israel’s abilities to hit its nuclear sites.ElBaradei also warned that he will resign as chief of the UN nuclear agency if Iran is attacked by any country."I always think of resigning in the event of a military strike…If military force is used, I would conclude that there is no mechanism left for me to defend," he said."The reports this week of Israeli military maneuvers, which took place in early June, provoked the IAEA warning," said CBS News Foreign Affairs Pamela Falk, who is based at the U.N., "because atomic energy chief ElBaradei has been pleading with Iran to accept a new package of incentives before another round of sanctions would be imposed.""The problem in the region is that, as time passes and the clock is ticking on Iran’s uranium enrichment program, there is a fear that Israel will act, as it did in Syria last year, to attack at least one of Iran’s nuclear facilities," said Falk, who was in Saudi Arabia earlier this week."Israel is evidently the most threatened by the last IAEA report, which concluded that there are unanswered questions about Iran’s ability to eventually develop nuclear weapons," said Falk, "so it is elBaradei himself who produced the report that is making Israel nervous."Meanwhile, Iran is reiterating its decision to continue enriching uranium, calling Western pressure to suspend the work "illogical."The statement by a government spokesman came as Europe waits for Iran’s formal answer to an international package of incentives designed to rein in its nuclear program.Iran’s official IRNA news agency quoted Iranian spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham on Saturday as saying that his country will respond to the package at a convenient time.The package would give Tehran economic incentives, and the chance to develop alternate light-water reactors, in return for dropping the uranium enrichment.(© 2008 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)http://www.torahohr.net/gogumagog/

Correction: Last post of mine should obviously have said … "I’ve been watching the $BKX bank index" …PeteCA

Another day and still no aerial attack on Iran. All bullocks. The professor should be ashamed of himself starting such a discussion on his board.Roubini describes his early life as follows: "I was born into a relatively orthodox Jewish family in Iran, lived in Israel and Turkey, and then moved to Italy as a child. By the age of six, instead of going to a yeshiva, I went to a secular Jewish school where I interacted with kids from all sorts of different backgrounds. Had I gone to an Orthodox Jewish school, I would perhaps be orthodox now and may have never become a Global Nomad"[2]. Roubini resided in Italy from 1962-1983, and is currently a U.S. citizen[3]. He speaks English, Italian, Hebrew, and Persian[4

Sorry, I meant Mansion not Charles Manson, that would be terrible but probably not far.

OK, trying to pick up some slack during Gloomy’s absence…Oil doubled in the last year. According to Deutsche Bank a mere (in comparison) 50% increase would collapse the world economy.Don’t count on Russia significantly increasing production, they’re in decline.World Economy Would Collapse If Oil Hit $200, Deutsche Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am42p9xBTXh4&refer=home[excerpt:]“Two-hundred dollar oil would break the back of the global economy,” Deutsche Bank AG’s Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski said in an interview today in Tokyo. “Next step after $200 would be global recession and bad news for everybody.”

"it is costing us $750,000 to bail one troubled homeowner"that is if the home worth that much. tax payer might just be throwing money (oops worthless toilet paper) into fire. currently deflation in housing and financial are deflation of bad debt and bad credit. FED or government shouldn’t try to bailout those risk taker by pumping liquidity to keep those price of those toxic waste high. that is call moral hazard. bad thing will come when you dont let this deflation of bad debt and bad credit to happen. reckless.

Just like yesterday, the 9:30 boogie man comes in and teh market goes up almost 100 points in a verticle fashion…free markets my ass!

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