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Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes

Author: Nouriel Roubini  ·   ·   › Share This Print

I had the pleasure to meet and speak at length over the weekend with Joschka Fischer, former Foreign Minister of Germany and one of the deepest geo-strategic thinkers in the world. He argued with me that – as he fleshed out in a a recent article he wrote for the Project Syndicate – Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of the Bush administration and that Israel effectively received the green light to this action from Bush during his recent visit to Israel. Fischer was recently in Israel to attend the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of Israel creation. A variety of factors and conversations – fleshed out in his article – have led him to the conclusion that Israel will attack Iran before the end of the Bush administration. This is just an opinion of one – however influential and well-connected – observer; but the arguments that Fischer makes on why Israel may go ahead sound compelling. We certainly don’t know if Israel will act that early – and certainly Israel has signaled that it will not accept an Iran that is nuclear – but let us consider the economic and financial consequences of such action.

First, even before Iran may try to retaliate to this action by trying to block the flow of oil from the Gulf, oil prices would spike above $200 dollar a barrel.

Second, Iran could react militarily to such Israeli action (that would be taken with the tacit support and the military logistic support of the US) by unleashing its supporters in Iraq against the US military forces there. That would trigger a military reaction by the US that would start a sustained air-led bombing campaign against Iran’s military capabilities (air force, anti-aircraft defenses, radar and other military installations, etc.)

Third, Iran would unleash its supporters in Lebanon and Gaza (Hezbollah and Hamas) in a military confrontation with Israel. A broader war will follow in the Middle East.

Fourth, Iran would use both the threat of blocking the flow of oil out of the Gulf and an actual sharp reduction of its exports of oil (an embargo) to spike the price of oil. Oil prices would rapidly rise above $200 per barrel and the US and global economy would spin into a severe stagflationary recession (like those triggered by the sharp spikes in the prices of oil following the staflationary shocks of the Yom Kippur war in 1973, the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990).

Fifth, while Sunni regimes may – in private – sigh relief following the destruction of the nuclear capabilities of the Shiite Iranian regime – the Sunni Arab street (the masses of poor Sunnis) from Algeria to Egypt and all the way to Pakistan, India and Indonesia may become even more anti-Western and anti-American leading to the risk over time of rise of anti-Western fundamentalist regimes in many Arab countries.

Sixth, the Bush administration whose hands have been tied by the new National Intelligence Estimate (that argued that Iran had suspended its program of development of nuclear weapons) would thus be able to strike Iran – via Israel – before the end of its term. Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House. So both Israel – that prefers McCain to Obama and is hurried to act as it is wary of the constraints that an Obama presidency may put on its ability to act against Iran – and the Bush administration would guarantee the election of McCain.

Now, it is not certain – as argued by Fischer – that Israel will strike that early; this is just a guess and a prediction by one observer even if many others think likewise. But if such action were to be taken by Israel the consequences outlined above would be the clear outcome: a major global recession, wars throughout the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, etc.) and a major increase in geopolitical instability.

Here is below the op-ed by Fischer first published last Friday by the Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star:

Friday, May 30, 2008

As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon

By Joschka Fischer Commentary by

As a result of misguided American policy, the threat of another military confrontation hangs like a dark cloud over the Middle East. The United States’ enemies have been strengthened, and Iran – despite being branded as a member of the so-called “axis of evil” – has been catapulted into regional hegemony. Iran could never have achieved this on its own, certainly not in such a short time.

A hitherto latent rivalry between Iran and Israel thus has been transformed into an open struggle for dominance in the Middle East. The result has been the emergence of some surprising, if not bizarre, alliances: Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and the American-backed, Shiite-dominated Iraq are facing Israel, Saudi Arabia, and most of the other Sunni Arab states, all of which feel existentially threatened by Iran’s ascendance.

The danger of a major confrontation has been heightened further by a series of factors: persistently high oil prices, which have created new financial and political opportunities for Iran; the possible defeat of the West and its regional allies in proxy wars in Gaza and Lebanon; and the United Nations Security Council’s failure to induce Iran to accept even a temporary freeze of its nuclear program.

Iran’s nuclear program is the decisive factor in this equation, for it threatens irreversibly the region’s strategic balance. That Iran – a country whose president never tires of calling for Israel’s annihilation and that threatens Israel’s northern and southern borders through its massive support of proxy wars waged by Hizbullah and Hamas – might one day have missiles with nuclear warheads is Israel’s worst security nightmare. Politics is not just about facts, but also about perceptions. Whether or not a perception is accurate is beside the point, because it nonetheless leads to decisions.

This applies in particular when the perception concerns what the parties consider to be threats to their very existence. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s threats of annihilation are taken seriously in Israel because of the trauma of the Holocaust. And most Arab governments share the fear of a nuclear Iran. Earlier this month, Israel celebrated its 60th birthday, and US President George W. Bush went to Jerusalem to play a leading part in the commemoration. But those who had expected that his visit would mainly be about the stalled negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians were bitterly disappointed. Bush’s central topic, including his speech to Israel’s Knesset, was Iran. Bush had promised to bring the Middle East conflict closer to a resolution before the end of his term this year. But his final visit to Israel seemed to indicate that his objective was different: he seemed to be planning, together with Israel, to end the Iranian nuclear program – and to do so by military, rather than by diplomatic, means.

Anyone following the press in Israel during the anniversary celebrations and listening closely to what was said in Jerusalem did not have to be a prophet to
understand that matters are coming to a head. Consider the following:

First, “stop the appeasement!” is a demand raised across the political spectrum in Israel – and what is meant is the nuclear threat emanating from Iran.

Second, while Israel celebrated, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted as saying that a life-and-death military confrontation was a distinct possibility.

Third, the outgoing commander of the Israeli Air Force declared that the air force was capable of any mission, no matter how difficult, to protect the country’s security. The destruction of a Syrian nuclear facility last year, and the lack of any international reaction to it, were viewed as an example for the coming action against Iran.

Fourth, the Israeli wish list for US arms deliveries, discussed with the American president, focused mainly on the improvement of the attack capabilities and precision of the Israeli Air Force.

Fifth, diplomatic initiatives and UN sanctions when it comes to Iran are seen as hopelessly ineffective.

And sixth, with the approaching end of the Bush presidency and uncertainty about his successor’s policy, the window of opportunity for Israeli action is seen as potentially closing.

The last two factors carry special weight. While Israeli military intelligence is on record as saying that Iran is expected to cross the red line on the path to nuclear power between 2010 and 2015 at the earliest, the feeling in Israel is that the political window of opportunity to attack is now, during the last months of Bush’s presidency.

Although it is acknowledged in Israel that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would involve grave and hard-to-assess risks, the choice between acceptance of an Iranian bomb and an attempt at its military destruction, with all the attendant consequences, is clear. Israel won’t stand by and wait for matters to take their course.

The Middle East is drifting toward a new great confrontation in 2008. Iran must understand that without a diplomatic solution in the coming months, a dangerous military conflict is very likely to erupt. It is high time for serious negotiations to begin.

The most recent offer by the six powers – the UN Security Council’s five permanent members plus Germany – is on the table, and it goes very far in accommodating Iran’s interests. The decisive question, however, will be whether it will be possible to freeze the Iranian nuclear program for the duration of the negotiations to avoid a military confrontation before these negotiations are completed. Should this newest attempt fail, things will soon get serious. Deadly serious.

Joschka Fischer, Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, led Germany’s Green Party for nearly 20 years. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate-Institute for Human Sciences (c) (www.project-syndicate.org).

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112 Responses to “Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes”

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:22 am

@ Peter Schiff: “The government was able to present an annualized first quarter growth rate of .9% based on an assumed annualized rate of inflation of only 2.6%… Does anyone, besides Fed governors and Wall Street economists, really believe inflation so far in 2008 is 33% below the average rate over the past three years?”I know one thing for sure, fewer and fewer believe it every day. The sell-side analysts and make-news pundits – even in “Investor’s Business Daily” – use government lying like it’s gospel. Lying has become synonymous with modern government. I am not just making a point here, it’s THE Point. The reason they all lie is to put money in their pockets. It was the news media that broadcast the lies that pushed us into war. The reason we went to war, other than Israel, was to put money in the pockets of the rich.Based on, I assume, government and corporate self-serving mathematics – here are some takes from today’s “IBD’s Top 10”:Real Incomes, Spending Are FlatIncome and spending rose 0.2% in April, but both were flat after adjusting for higher prices. Spending on durables was particularly weak. Wages and salaries fell 0.2%, the first drop in a year, on weaker pay gain and job losses. The core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 0.1% vs. March and 2.1% year on year, just over the central bank’s comfort zone.Midwest Factories” Slide SlowsThe Chicago purchasers’ index rose for a 3rd straight month, up 0.8 point to 49.1, still a little below the bread-even 50. New orders growth accelerated. The jobs index rose but still suggests another month of big manufacturing job cuts. The prices paid index rose to a 2-year high. ISM’s U.S. factory index is due out Mon. (today).Tiffany Beats, Raises OutlookThe luxury jewelry retailer’s Q1 EPS rose 39% to 50 cents, beating views by a dime. Sales grew 12% to $668.1 mil, above views. Tiffany cited strong sales in Europe and Asia. U.S. same-store sales were flat, but rose at its Manhattan store due to higher foreign tourist spending. Tiffany raised its full-year EPS outlook to $2.80-$2.90 above views. It plans to open 24 stores worldwide. Shares rose 3%.Other Rich Nations’ Growth CoolsSluggish growth and price pressures are not just for the U.S. Canada’s GDP unexpectedly shrank at an annualized 0.3% in Q1, the first drop in 5 years. Euro zone inflation rose back to a record 3.6% while German retail sales surprisingly fell. In Japan, unemployment hit a 7-month high while household spending, industrial output and housing starts fell as inflation picks up.Insured Mortgage Defaults RiseApril defaults on privately insured mortgages shot up 71% vs. a year earlier to 73,880, though that was skewed by an insurer’s 1-time reporting change. Traditional mortgage insurance policies issued fell 27% vs. a year earlier, but the dollar value rose 11.8%. Congress is mulling backing refinanced mortgages if lenders cut principal. “Economy” column page 2:Paulson: Housing bill has faultsTreasury Sec’y Henry Paulson backs the stronger scrutiny of gov’t-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a housing bill before the Senate. But he had concerns about mortgage guarantees. “Some parts of the legislation are modestly helpful and others are not helpful,” Paulson said. “It’s a big part of my job to work to get the strongest possible housing bill on the president’s desk so he can sign it.”

lenny • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am

thanks for covering this issue…i\’m curious about the effect an attack would have on Treasury securities and U.S. government finances…my guess would be a short-term boost for Treasuries but more problems over the longer term…what would happen to the dollar?Wayne Madsen Report posted the following today:A meeting held at the British embassy in Washington, DC on May 30 was billed as one dealing with common military strategy on Russia. However, the presence of a US Marine Brigadier General and his aides, a Captain and a Corporal, raised eyebrows. The meeting actually dealing with the subject of military preparedness in the Sultanate of Oman, opposite the Strait of Hormuz from Iran.In March, Vice President Dick Cheney visited Oman. Although Cheney denied it, the trip to Oman was designed to enlist the Omanis\’ support in a U.S. military assault on Iran. The May 30 meeting at the British embassy is an indication that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown\’s government, battered in a series of recent elections, may see a war with Iran as a way to boost its polling against the Tories.The British embassy in Washington is next to the US Naval Observatory, the official residence of Vice President Cheney.The U.S. and Britain use five air bases in Oman, including the island base of Masirah and bases at Thumrait, Salalah, and Seeb. Another newer air base, Al-Musanah, west of the capital Muscat, is capable of handling B-52s.

Play ON • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 am

Why has Iran stored oil in tankers over the course of the last few months?Some points:1-Oil will go to $200 a barrel but we are going there from $130 not form $50 so the move is not as \"shocking\"2-Militarily. I would expect Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities via air. The Iranians then block the straight of Hormuz which will be met by UN (primarily American) seizure ,via airborne and seaborne assault, of the IRANIAN side of the straight of Hormuz. Take it to the bank!

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am

a guess and a prediction from one thinker…and the rest of the thinkers are tired of sweeping generalizations with narrow views.

Anonymous ibid. • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:32 am

By any reasonable standard, the US declared war against Iran three years ago, funding anti-government sabotage, assassination, and propaganda on Iranian territory. The Iranians have been winning this war by doing nothing. If the US or Israel strikes Iran, Iran may very well win that war by complaining to the United Nations and by filing suit for property damages. The net result would be a total discrediting of the United States, as the world blamed it rather than Iran for soaring oil prices and recession. One needs to keep an eye on national goals, rather than tactical objectives, in fighting wars. The Iranians\’s national goals are best served by outwaiting the Bush Administration, with the expectation that someone competent replaces him.

Matthias • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:39 am

Does anybody here think that Bush and Co. will act like intelligent or even responsible people?Thats a joke.

Anonymous ibid. • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am

Additional comment: There are no Iranian nuclear facilities according to our own National Intelligence Estimate, at least if by \"nuclear facilities we mean, \"facilities capable of processing uranium to weapons grade within a foreseeable period of time.\" There are research facilities and Iran would like to have a commercial-scale reactor to produce electricity. But it\’s a huge and difficult step from processing uranium for fuel and producing weapons. Also, probably as a result of forcing religion into academics, Iran has an extremely low level of scientific and technical competence. By the time Iran gets around to being able to produce a bomb, it will probably may well converted to Hinduism.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 am

As German foreign minister Fischer supported sending German military to Afghanistan. Just another old warmonger, not much better than W. Billions of narcodollars guaranteed..

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am

@Guest: “As German foreign minister Fischer supported sending German military to Afghanistan. Just another old warmonger, not much better than W…”Fischer’s action on troops for Afghanistan is a political position concerning Germany’s support for NATO. Fischer has been a major critic of the U.S. action in Iraq. His warnings here, if we would heed them, would help.The BBC reported on Feb. 8, 2008, that German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, who doesn’t like Rumsfeld, “has directly challenged the United States over the justifications for possible military action against Iraq. \"I am not convinced… I cannot go to the public and say these are the reasons because I don\’t believe in them,\" he told a European defense conference in Munich.”http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2740777.stm

Medic • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am

As oil runs out, many have predicted that we would see wars as those who rely most heavily on it move to secure their future supplies. Does anyone here think we are already at this stage? What if we have reached peak? Does the US action in Iraq and perhaps now Iran make sense if we are trying to secure oil? Is there any real push in the US to find and or fund viable alternatives? Short tempered, short sighted and delusional people currently in power have set the course and the plan in motion. If the \"warmonger\" is correct or not, the discussion of invasion is being introduced to the public. After a short amount of time, and without real debate by officials, we will move again in a second attempt to protect the most vital asset in the world because we are not ready to live without it. This is a sad and pathetic time in the history of the world. What we need are great thinkers and great leaders to look forward and find solutions, not add to the problems. I am disgusted that wars have become the US\’s first course of action instead of its last.

sellemsam • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:45 am

I absolutely disagree with the conclusion that this would help McCain. $200++a oil, a major global recession, stock market crash, wars throughout the Middle East and a major increase in geopolitical instability would assure a Obama victory not McCain!However if this is what they belive, the attack would come closer to the election? \"Sixth, the Bush administration whose hands have been tied by the new National Intelligence Estimate (that argued that Iran had suspended its program of development of nuclear weapons) would thus be able to strike Iran – via Israel – before the end of its term. Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House. So both Israel – that prefers McCain to Obama and is hurried to act as it is wary of the constraints that an Obama presidency may put on its ability to act against Iran – and the Bush administration would guarantee the election of McCain.\"

t • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am

@lenny\"The May 30 meeting at the British embassy is an indication that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown\’s government, battered in a series of recent elections, may see a war with Iran as a way to boost its polling against the Tories.\"I doubt it; the Iraq unpopularity cost Blair his job. I would think was with Iran would be even more unpopular, especially on similar specious WMD grounds.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:49 am

@ Medic on 2008-06-02 11:44:16Why are you concerned.It is not new.Us military missions 1950 – 1999:# 1950-1953Korea-Krieg: 27.06.1950 bis 27.07.1953# 1956Suez-Krise: Ägypten, 26.07.1956 bis 15.11.1956# 1958Operation “Blue Bat”: Libanon, 15.07.1958 bis 20.10.1958# 1958 – 1963Taiwan-Straße: 23.08.1958 bis 1.06.1963# 1960 – 1962Kongo: 14.07.1960 bis 1.09.1962# 1970Operation “Tailwind”: Laos, 1970Operation “Ivory Coast/Kingoin”: Nordvietnam, 21.11.1970# 1972Operation “Linebacker II”: Nordvietnam, 18.12.1972 bis 29.12.1972Operation “Pocket Money”: Nordvietnam, 9.05.1972 bis 23.10.1972Operation “Freedom Train”: Nordvietnam, 6.04.1972 bis 10.05.1972# 1972 – 1973Operation “Endweep”: Nordvietnam, 27.01.1972 bis 27.07.1973# 1962 – 1971Operation “Linebacker I”: Nordvietnam, 10.05.1972 bis 23. OktoberOperation “Ranch Hand”: Südvietnam, Januar 1962 bis Januar 1971# 1962 – 1963Kuba-Krise: weltweit, 24.10.1962 bis 1.06.1963# 1965 – 1966Operation “Powerpack”: Dominikanische Republik, 28.04.1965 bis 21.09.1966# 1965 – 1970Operation “Arc Light”: Südostasien, 18.06.1965 bis April 1970Operation “Rolling Thunder”: Südvietnam, 24.02.1965 bis Oktober 1968# 1967Sechs-Tage-Krieg: Mittlerer Osten, 13.05.1967 bis 10.06.1967# 1973Operation “Nickel Grass”: Mittlerer Osten, 6.10.1973 bis 17.11.1973# 1975Operation “Eagle Pull”: Kambodscha, 11.04.1975 bis 13.04.1975Operation “Freequent Wind”: Evakuierung in Südvietnam, 26.04.1975 bis 30.04.1975Operation “Mayaguez”: Kambodscha, 15.05.1975# 1977 – 1999Operation “Coronet Oak”: Zentral- und Südamerika, Oktober 1977 bis 17.02.1999# 1980Operationen “Eagle Claw/Desert One”: Iran, 25.04.1980# 1981Operation “Golf von Sidra”: Libyen, 18.08.1981# 1981 – 1992El Salvador, Nikaragua: 1.01.1981 bis 1.02.1992# 1983Operation “Urgent Fury”: Grenada, 23.10.1983 bis 21.11.1983# 1982 – 1987US-Multinational Force: Libanon, 25.08.1982 bis 11.12.1987# 1986Operation “Attain Document”: Libyen, 26.01.1986 bis 29.03.1986Operation “El Dorado Canyon”: Libyen, 12.04.1986 bis 17.04.1986Operation “Blast Furnace”: Bolivien, Juli 1986 bis November 1986# 1987 – 1990Operation “Ernest Will”: Persischer Golf, 24.07.1987 bis 2.08.1990# 1988Operation “Praying Mantis”: Persischer Golf, 17.04.1988 bis 19.04.1988Operation “Golden Pheasant”: Honduras, ab März 1988# 1989Operation “Nimrod Dancer”: Panama, Mai 1989 bis 20.12.1989# 1989 – 1990Operation “Just Cause”: Panama, 20.12.1989 bis 31.01.1990# 1990Operation “Promote Liberty”: Panama, 31.01.1990Operation “Wipeout”: Hawaii, ab 1990# 1990 – 1991Operation “Sharp Edge”: Liberia, Mai 1990 bis 8.01.1991Operation “Desert Shield”: 2.08.1990 bis 17.01.1991# 1990 – 1993Operation “Ghost Zone”: Bolivien, März 1990 bis 1993# 1991Operation “Desert Storm”: Irak, 17.01.1991 bis 28.02.1991Operation “Eastern Exit”: Somalia, 2.01.1991 bis 11.01.1991Operation “Productiv Effort/Sea Angel”: Bangladesh, Mai 1991 bis Juni 1991Operation “Fiery Vigil”: Philippinen, 1. bis 30.06.1991Operation “Victor Squared”: Haiti, 1. bis 30.09.1991Operation “Quick Lift”: Zaire, 24.09.1991 bis 7.10.1991Operation “Coronet Nighthawk”: Zentral- und Südamerika, ab 1991Operation “Desert Falcon”: Saudi Arabien, ab 31.03.1991# 1991 – 1992Operation “Desert Calm”: “Südwest-Asien, 1.03.1991 bis 1.01.1992# 1991-1994Operation “Support Justice”: Südamerika, 1991 bis 1994Operation “Provide Comfort”: Kurdistan, 5.04.1991 bis Dezember 1994# 1991 – 1996Operation “Provide Comfort II”: Kurdistan, 24.07.1991 bis 31.12.1996# 1992Operation “Desert Farewell”: Südwest-Asien, 1.01.1992 bis 1992Operation “Silver Anvil”: Sierra Leone, 2.05.1992 bis 5.05.1992Operation “Maritime Monitor”: Adria, 16.07.1992 bis 22.11.1992Operation “Sky Monitor”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, ab 16.10.1992# 1992 – 1993Operation “Maritime Guard”: Adria, 22.11.1992 bis 15.06.1993# 1992 – 1996Operation “Provide Promise”: Bosnien, 3.07.1992 bis 31.03.1996# 1993 – 1995Operation “Sharp Guard”: Adria, 15.06.1993 bis Dezember 1995# 1994Operation “Distant Runner”: Ruanda, 9.04.1994 bis 15.04.1994Operationen “Quiet Resolve”/”Support Hope”: Ruanda, 22.07.1994 bis 30.09.1994Operation “Vigilant Warrior”: Kuwait, Oktober 1994 bis November 1994Operation “Able Sentry”: Serbien-Mazedonien, ab 5.07.1994# 1994 – 1995Operation “Uphold/Restore Democracy”: Haiti, 19.09.1994 bis 31.03.1995Operation “Steady State”: Südamerika, 1994 bis April 1996# 1995Operation “United Shield”: Somalia, 22.01.1995 bis 25.03.1995Operation “Vigilant Sentine I”: Kuwait, ab August 1995Operation “Nomad Vigil”: Albanien, 1.07.1995 bis 5.11.1996Operation “Safe Border”: Peru/Ecuador, ab 1995Operation “Deliberate Force”: Republika Srpska, 29.08.1995 bis 21.09.1995Operation “Determined Effort”: Bosnien, Juli 1995 bis Dezember 1995Operation “Quick Lift”: Kroatien, Juli 1995# 1995 – 1996Operation “Decisive Enhancement”: Adria, 1.12.1995 bis 19.06.1996Operation “Joint Edeavor”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, Dezember 1995 bis Dezember 1996# 1996Operation “Assured Response”: Liberia, April 1996 bis August 1996Operation “Quick Response”: Zentralafrikanische Republik, Mai 1996 bis August 1996Operation “Guardian Assistance”: Zaire/Ruanda/Uganda, 15.11.1996 bis 27.12.1996Operation “Pacific Haven/Quick Transit”: Irak – Guam, 15.09.1996 bis 16.12.1996Operation “Laser Strike”: Südafrika, ab 1.04.1996Operation “Nomad Edeavor”: Taszar, Ungarn, ab März 1996Operation “Northern Watch”: Kurdistan, ab 31.12.1996Operation “Desert Focus”: Saudi Arabien, ab Juli 1996Operation “Desert Strike”: Irak, 3.09.1996; Cruise Missile-Angriffe: Irak, 26.06.1993, 17.01.1993, Bombardements: Irak, 13.01.1993Operation “Decisive Edeavor/Decisive Edge”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, Januar 1996 bis Dezember 1996# 1997Operation “Guardian Retrieval”: Kongo, März 1997 bis Juni 1997Operation “Noble Obelisk”: Sierra Leone, Mai 1997 bis Juni 1997Operation “Bevel Edge”: Kambodscha, Juli 1997Operation “Phoenix Scorpion I”: Irak, ab November 1997# 1998Operation “Noble Response”: Kenia, 21.01.1998 bis 25.03.1998Operation “Shepherd Venture”: Guinea-Bissau, 10.06.1998 bis 17.06.1998Operation “Infinite Reach”: Sudan/Afghanistan, 20. bis 30.08.1998Operation “Phoenix Scorpion II”: Irak, ab Februar 1998Operation “Phoenix Scorpion III”: Irak, ab November 1998Operation “Phoenix Scorpion IV”: Irak, ab Dezember
1998Operation “Desert Fox”: Irak, 16.12.1998 bis 20.12.1998Operation “Joint Guard”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, 20.06.1998Operation “Determined Falcon”: Kosovo/Albanien, 15.06.1998 bis 16.06.1998Operation “Joint Forge”: ab 20.06.1998Operation “Deliberate Forke”: Bosnien-Herzegowina, ab 20.06.1998Operation “Deny Flight”: Bosnien, 12.04.1993 bis 20.12.1995# 1998-1999Operation “Eagle Eye”: Kosovo, 16.10.1998 bis 24.03.1999Operation “Determined Force”: Kosovo, 8.10.1998 bis 23.03.1999# 1999Operation “Sustain Hope/Allied Harbour”: Kosovo, ab 5.04.1999Operation “Shining Hope”: Kosovo, ab 5.04.1999Operation “Cobalt Flash”: Kosovo, ab 23.03.1999

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm

Oh here is an much more detailed list ofmilitary actionshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_military_history_events

OuterBeltway • June 2nd, 2008 at 12:52 pm

Mr. Fischer is correct in his assessment that these next few months are the NeoCon\’s last opportunity to remake the mid-East in favor of Israel and the U.S. oil and gas industry. However, he is incorrect in his view that Israel\’s pre-emptive attack, should there be one, would be a positive thing for McCain. The U.S. economy is not on solid footing now, and a protracted interval of $200+ oil with the corresponding increases in gas and food prices would bring on a firestorm of resentment from the middle class. If Israel takes action which results in the crippling of the U.S. economy, who will support Israel?Furthermore, there is no credible way to sell this war. The major media outlets and the administration have shredded their credibility during the Iraq debacle. The party\’s over. Israel will have to make land for peace concessions, the U.S. must transition to a new source of energy, and religion must give way to reason. Can\’t happen soon enough.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 12:56 pm

NR, I agree with your prognostications regarding the step-by-step economic and financial consequences, including the price of oil, if we go to more war, and very much appreciate the heads-up warning on the possibilities. But I disagree at this point with a view that these developments may elect John McCain, given the way the Iraq war has been brought back into the presidential campaigns in recent days. Factors such as the book by Bush’s former press spokesman are playing a major role. I believe McClellan’s criticisms of the media’s giving the Administration the benefit of the doubt on its “weapons of mass destruction rationale” are especially significant. The left bloggers are picking up the “get us out of the Middle East” theme as never before…emphasizing that the “progressive” voices were the ones who were right on the Iraq war from the beginning. But, we’ll have to see. As J. Paul Getty said: “The meek shall inherit the earth, but not the mineral rights.” But as we can see by all that’s holy, they’ll have to die for them.As one Rothschild boasted: “When the streets of Paris are running with blood, I buy.’” Ron Chernow, “The House of Morgan,” p. 13

AfA • June 2nd, 2008 at 1:32 pm

This article (Fischer\’s) is full of misconceptions, allegations and impartiality. However, I find his point accurate \"Politics is not just about facts, but also about perceptions. Whether or not a perception is accurate is beside the point, because it nonetheless leads to decisions.\" Although I would put \’make-believe\’ instead of \’perception\’I think I agree with professor’s point that the war may help McCain. Anybody remembers 2004, crappy support, Bush? He still managed to be reelected. Which is worse? OuterBeltway, I learnt not to underestimate THEM. The party is not over. According to my latest data, the news media is still owned by the same people, voters did not improve their QI much during the last few years, and THEY are still have the same power and ambitions. I don’t really believe that oil is the only and most important reason that motivates THEM.I can see that topic is very … exciting. It even dominates an active market day: http://www.bloomberg.com/

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm

I\’ve thought that any attack on Iran would happen after the election. I don\’t see popular support of an expansion of the war at all. American support for the war in Iraq is dismal. The Iranian attack can be successfuly heaped on the GOP, since they\’ve screamed about Iran for years. If an attack prior to election, I could see it damaging McCain\’s chances.Done after the election, regardless of who the Preident to Be is, gives the current admin carte blanche to do whatever they want. The last chance for neocons to do what they\’ve longed for.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 1:47 pm

There are arguments that say a wider war in the Middle East prompted by an Israeli attack would favor election of John McCain. If Israel believes that its window of opportunity is narrowing because of the possibility of a Democrat victory, it seems to me it may already have missed a more opportune time to attack, i.e. before Barack Obama garnered too great a delegate lead. Would it not have been better to attack when it would have aided the more powerful Israeli supporter, Senator Clinton? At any rate, a McCain-Clinton match-up in November would have been a far more efficient political climate for Israel to manage the ramifications that would develop after the strike. All this, of course, assumes that Americans would go to war big time to support Israel at this moment, a fact on which I disagree.Senator Clinton is on record saying she would “totally obliterate” Iran in an attack on Israel.

ReturnFreeRisk • June 2nd, 2008 at 2:13 pm

How does this scenario change if Israel\’s PM Ehud Olmert loses his office due to corruption scandals.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 2:29 pm

US is already stretched militarily. No support for Cheney-Bush.No attack without preliminary preparation of public opinion. Not yet any such effort in sight. Premature speculation. This is presently in the realm of the remotely possible not the probable.Should it happen, it would be very worrisome as it might link to other Cheneyesk notions like getting oil from Iraq while raising up the Haliburton et. al. industrial – military – security complex.

AfA • June 2nd, 2008 at 2:36 pm

@ ReturnFreeRiskNothing, because president or prime minister is not the ultimate decision maker. In the view of many Israeli politicians, Olmert is very reserved.@ Guests\"All this, of course, assumes that Americans would go to war big time to support Israel at this moment, a fact on which I disagree.\"\"I\’ve thought that any attack on Iran would happen after the election. I don\’t see popular support of an expansion of the war at all.\"I think you really underestimate war-mongers and their propaganda machine. They don’t give a damn about the geo-politico-economical situation in the US or elsewhere. If they are really planning to do so. This dismisses the scenario that it is Israel that will \’officially\’ launche the attack and subsequent to a real or fabricated retaliation by Iran against an American ‘target’ which is susceptible (as did in the past) to change the public opinion overnight.

Peter Davis • June 2nd, 2008 at 2:56 pm

A U.S. sponsored, Israeli attack on Iran would, in my opinion, be catastrophic. As much as this administration has screwed up thus far, such an attack would far exceed any mistakes made thus far. What\’s truly scary is that I think they\’re crazy enough to do it. The remaining holdouts in the administration are true-believers; they absolutely, without fail, believe that their policies are righteous. This makes them both dangerous and disastrous – in fact, no less dangerous than the fanatics they claim to fight.Why? Because Bush, Cheney and the rest of their crew are just as fanatical about their own viewpoints. While the implementation of those views does not involve the targeted and deliberate killing of thousands of innocent civilians, this does not make their effects any less disastrous. The military and economic power (however waning) of the United States magnifies the effects of its actions.What really will happen if such an attack spurs an all-out war in the Middle East? Global oil supplies will surely be disrupted, causing already high inflation (no matter how understated by B.S. government statistics) to skyrocket into the stratosphere. Consumer confidence will plummet as the consumer will suffer a decisive, nasty deathblow; spending will absolutely fall off the cliff and will kill the economy.If oil does skyrocket, the dollar will likely tank, perhaps even collapse. Because of this, it is at least very possible the Treasury yields will then spike. They will have to in order to entice anyone to actually buy them. This will, of course, increase our already burdensome debt. Programs may then have to be cut (say goodbye to healthcare…) Local and state governments may also begin waves of defaults.Home prices? Forget about it. They are already likely to continue plummeting. Who knows where they\’ll go when nobody has money or confidence to buy a house? And the list goes on and on. Aside from: 1) Severely compromising our national security interests2) Committing our broken, overstretched forces to yet another conflict which will cost even more lives and result in the profligate expenditure of weapons that are already in short supply3) And severely diminishing our already weak global standingI fear that that such a conflict will prove cataclysmic for both the market and the economy. Unfortunately, I\’m not the least bit surprised that Bush would even consider this, given that his lack of foresight, critical thought and even a basic understanding of, quite frankly, anything, is the hallmark of his presidency.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:19 pm

You need only ONE from \"iranian terrorists\" and the all americans \"have stand together\".Nothing is easier as americans bringing \"standing united against the terror\"Adolf did it in Gleiwitz.Bush did it in NY.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:23 pm

ProfessorJoschka Fischer, Germany\’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, led Germany\’s Green Party for nearly 20 years. That party has traditionally favored Palastinian causes, and been extremely hostile to Isreali causes and policies. Could this story be one-sided perhaps?

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:26 pm

”The Case for WWIV” by Lawrence Kudlow and Sam MunsonSept 09, 2004 –Norman Podhoretz, longtime editor-in-chief of “Commentary” and one of the founding fathers of neoconservatism, has penned an important essay titled, “World War IV and How to Win It.” It is must reading for anyone concerned with the direction America takes in the battle against radical Islamists. Along the way, it also makes a trenchant case for George W. Bush as wartime visionary. You might be asking, Why World War IV? Have we already fought World War III? In fact we have. Podhoretz effectively argues that the Cold War was WWIII. It was certainly a global conflict of unimaginable importance, albeit one that was fought with intelligence, counterintelligence, and clandestine military operations rather than national armies. It follows then that the war on terror, a global battle of similar magnitude being waged to preserve liberty, is properly labeled WWIV.In his essay, Podhoretz argues that Bush is the right man for this war; the right president at this juncture in history. He paints him as a courageous politician with a clear vision for America, one that rests on the four “pillars” of the new Bush Doctrine. The first pillar is a repudiation of moral relativism in political life, and an acceptance of a moral clarity that asserts the right to call evil regimes evil. The second pillar states that terrorists and the regimes that sponsor them are not legal matters for criminal courts. Instead they are members of an “irregular” army that must be dealt with through a war strategy of regime change. The third pillar is our right not merely to respond when attacked, but to preempt those who would attack us. This means bypassing arms-control treaties, taking the battle to the enemy, “draining the swamps” of terrorist training and shelter, and ultimately moving toward democratization. The fourth pillar is the commitment to help nations friendly to us (particularly Israel) and to oppose the unfriendly…Which brings us to November, 2004. Podhoretz hopes that the Democrats, if elected, will not abandon Bush’s war policy ..http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow_munson200409090941.aspWhich, IMO, brings us to now and to the point of total annihilation… and no economy and no nothin’. God help us.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:26 pm

I think I read somewhere that WWII was the reason for the surmounting of the Great Depression.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:29 pm

@ Anonymous on 2008-06-02 15:23:48Every german party and anybody else have to be hostile to israelis.They learned that in school.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pm

\"Every german party and anybody else have to be hostile to israelis.They learned that in school.\"Oh sorry, that was some years ago.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:32 pm

Link on Green Party and anti-semitismhttp://ydajc.wordpress.com/2006/03/30/the-rise-of-antisemitism-in-the-green-party/

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:32 pm

It\’s always amusing to read comments from all of the \"national security experts\" on this site, most of which are probably still living in the basement of their parent\’s home. I for one am not a huge Bush supporter, but do possess the wisdom to know that history will judge the true success of any administration. In case you are not aware, history, especially when speaking of the Middle East, plays out over decades, not simply over the course of a single administration. History may prove that our approach to the Middle East was a flawed one, or it may prove otherwise. Sadly, most of you are so blinded by your hatred for Bush, you fail to take the time to understand the long term strategic impact of our involvement in that region of the world. Get over yourselves and your friends at moveon.org and the Daily Kos and embrace the good that the US stands for in this world.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 3:48 pm

embrace the good that the US stands for in this world.faminesonly country to use nuclear weaponsassasinations of political figuresI can go on and on, but I dont live in the basement but am in my 2nd floor office

kilgores • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:14 pm

@ Guest 10:44:27>As German foreign minister Fischer supported sending German military to Afghanistan. Just another old warmonger, not much better than W. Now this is just plain silly. There\’s a huge difference betweeen the collective defense against terrorism taken by the international community in Afghanistan and a unilateral attack by one state on another, such as the attack on Iraq by the U.S. (or on Poland by Germany in 1939). Take a look at the coalition members of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan:1 Albania2 Armenia3 Australia4 Bahrain5 Bangladesh6 Belgium7 Canada8 Congo9 Cyprus10 Czech Republic11 Denmark12 Egypt13 Estonia14 France15 Germany16 Greece17 India18 Italy19 Japan20 Jordan21 Kuwait22 Kyrgyzstan23 Latvia24 Lithuania25 Macedonia26 Malaysia27 Netherlands28 New Zealand29 Norway30 Oman31 Pakistan32 Philippines33 Poland34 Portugal35 Qatar36 Romania37 Russia38 South Korea39 Spain40 Sudan41 Tajikistan42 Thailand43 Turkey44 Turkmenistan45 United Arab Emirates46 Ukraine47 United Kingdom48 United States49 UzbekistanInternational terrorism is a legitimate problem faced by the entire international commmunity. You can\’t just lump anyone into the category of \’warmonger\’ that may favor using military force in certain limited circumstances to achieve specific goals.SWK

kilgores • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:31 pm

@ Guest on 15:19:51>You need only ONE from \"iranian terrorists\" and the all americans \"have stand together\".>Nothing is easier as americans bringing \"standing united against the terror\">Adolf did it in Gleiwitz.>Bush did it in NY.I hope you aren\’t seriously suggesting that 9/11, in which thousands of real people died from actual terrorism materially supported by the Taliban government in Afghanistan, is comparable to the Gleiwitz incident, which was wholly fabricated by the Nazis as an excuse for invading Poland, a free and peaceful country that did not threaten Germany in any way. The Gulf of Tonkin incident was arguably somewhat like Gleiwitz, but nobody can make a credible claim that 9/11 was so. Bad analogies make for bad arguments.SWK

Matthias • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm

The german ministry of finance supported IKB bank already last summer with 500.000.000 € secretively.Hmmmm.Already an option for Mr. B and P.?http://www.handelsblatt.com/News/Unternehmen/Banken-Versicherungen/_pv/_p/200039/_t/ft/_b/1438127/default.aspx/bund-leistete-heimliche-hilfe-an-ikb.html

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:37 pm

SWK – Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of the posters here don\’t care to place perspective on discussions such as these. Instead, they prefer to participate in group think and will avoid at all costs any recognition of success related to the Bush administration, while at the same time assessing blame for every ill in the world and lay it at our President\’s feet. Once again, I am not a Bush supporter and certainly don\’t agree with many of the decisions made over the last 7 1/2 years. I do, however, realize that the defining struggle of our time is that of Islamic terrorism. Unpopular decisions must be made to allow us the comfort and priviledge of even being able to have these discussions in this type of forum. If you are not happy with or appreciative of your basic freedom, maybe you should consider taking up residence in one of the world\’s other great democracies – say Myanmar, China, Sudan…take your pick.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:49 pm

@Anonymous: “That party (Germany’s Green Party) has traditionally favored Palastinian causes, and been extremely hostile to Isreali causes and policies. Could this story be one-sided perhaps?”Both articles by Ex-Vice Chancellor Fischer and Professor Roubini deal with the possibilities of war and its impact on the world’s economies. Neither took any side whatsoever. If anyone is suggesting that either did, then perhaps the bias is coming from the person making the suggestion. It’s obvious that Mr. Fischer took great pains, regardless of his personal feelings, “whatever they may be,” not to take sides in this discussion.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm

It’s obvious that Mr. Fischer took great pains, regardless of his personal feelings, “whatever they may be,” not to take sides in this discussion.Written by Guest on 2008-06-02 16:49:41I posted that statement on the green party not as an accusation or a condemnation of the article, but to get comments on wheter ther may be bias however subtle on Fishers part. That is all.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm

\"Will\" indeed: Ho humFrom Mish who has now caught on: (I like Mish) \"I believe the final analysis will show that it\’s not subsistence wages that are killing the country, rather it\’s poor policy decisions at the personal, corporate, municipal, and Federal level that are killing the economy.\"Yes, stupidity is contagious and now it is not only pervasive but ubiquitous; at all levels of \"leadership\" which of course, includes academia, science, medicine, education and that at a store, soon, coming to you.\"Peter Principle\" L. Peter and R Hull; a done deal then add \"The True Believer\" Eric Hoffer a touch of von Hayek (The Road to Serfdom) some Kissinger crap and you have the future wish of the World ruled by the mass stupid.Having spent my life with \"leadership\" all over the World in politics, international institutions, the World Corporates, bureaucracy, I can say, without any doubt at all, that this World is ruled by morons, most of which, if not all, are shoelace impaired.The World Investor makes decisions not on research but on the emotional perceptions of colleagues, old school chums, government stats, decisions of other investors, instructions and think not for themselves; they are stupid for as the news goes from bad to worse, they act in the opposite manner.Thinking and / or individual thought is not an encouraged undertaking for those of the top elite. It is strange that etymologically, the term \"elite\" originally meant \’competent\’; just another example as to how history is twisted and manipulated by the victor.The most powerful and respected Nation in the World with the most magnificent Constitution and Bill of Rights even constructed out of the minds of great men, elects the World\’s greatest moron and incompetent who takes their sons and daughters to die and shreds their legacy – because its just a \"piece of paper\".And academia ponders postmortem and their future positions; science sells itself to the highest payer and bureaucracy scams the public (ho hum). Who believed that the Bankers (whankers) could police themselves and be trusted? They did, of course.No man can be trusted! No man! But there are good men; they exactly comprise 5% of the population: a scientific fact(Your mileage ay vary)but they will not be found in \"leadership\"; the place where good men are murdered.Ladies and Gentlemen of the RGE Blog: The bottom-line is that stupidity is taking the World down and the most stupid of the stupidest, wish to impose (intend that this will be so)their crasse stupidity upon us until the end; they insist. Just as a matter of interest, I meet and talk to about 20 to 60 \’leadership heroes\’ a week currently and I can verify most comments herein:-) One in 20 have a little hope where most prefer consensual opinion to guide their very existence; We are doomed:-)>The immediate future is panic; a good investment and a sure bet.Ho humPeterJB

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm

Hahahah LOL HaHoh:\"Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and four other U.S. financial companies have used an accounting rule adopted last year to book almost $12 billion of revenue after a decline in prices of their own bonds. The rule, intended to expand the “mark-to- market\’\’ accounting that banks use to record profits or losses on trading assets, allows them to report gains when market prices for their liabilities fall.The new math, while legal, defies common sense. Merrill, the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, added $4 billion of revenue during the past three quarters as the market value of its debt fell. That was the result of higher yields demanded by investors spooked by the New York-based company\’s $37 billion of writedowns from assets hurt by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. \"http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2ppBYA0ELaU&refer=homeSo, debt equal qualitative and quantitative profit; losses equal profits, too or: -8 = +160 (20:1 leverage) and -8 + -8 = +160 ahahahhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaa goood!How much for stupidity shares? Let\’s start an Index!Am I the only one?Ho hum – at least it now includes humour:-)PeterJB

AfA • June 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm

\"Am I the only one?\"Sure not.For your information, there is a new ETF under symbol STPDX, which tracks the amount of stupidity in the economy. Due the large success of the fund, you have various choices: STPDX-P for political stupidity, STPDX-M for markets, STPDX-US, STPDX-EU, STPDX-EM …The purchase and redemption of fund shares are made in creation units. To purchase STPDX shares, investors have to deliver the equivalent of 1,000 shares with the same composition of the fund in the previous working day (which can be found on website http://www.stpdindex.com, read prospectus for further information) For example, for STPDX-P fund, investors should deliver a mix of either votes for McCain or reelection of Bush (whichever is stupider), signed agreement to all bail outs, attack Iran, a BLS report …Shorting of STPDX is not yet open. STPDX shares are listed and traded in all major markets: NYMEX, NASDAQ, CONGREX, WHEX (White House Exchange) and your local Saturday market.

Will\'t End? • June 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 pm

Read between the lines…Hear commentator say Buy down? (loud guffaws in background) and consternated shill parries with \"No! Buy in…average in\". This as Authers at FT.com shows graphs that maybe a recession has been completely averted as is unlikely. This on the heels of his many days of graphing the disasters sector by sector through the economy.What we\’re seeing, folks, is a hard pysch-ops to talk out the \"home-gamer\" investors from pessimistic, cash-hoarding mentality. Anyone with some historical view, a smattering of economic sense and horse-sense to boot knows that this is an economic turmoil unseen for at least 20 or more years. It\’s an insult to any intellect to draw the attention away from plunging into a ditch in order to run up the duped\’s back and form escape. Tiresome, tiresome.

Trevor • June 2nd, 2008 at 9:21 pm

The defining issue of our time is certainly not Islamic terrorism. This may be the \"defining issue of Israel\’s time,\" but it is not the defining issue of the United States at this time. The defining issue of our time is new energy, and how we will find it and sustain it. Blowing up countries that seek to build nuclear power plants is not a good investment in future energy security. Anyone here who wishes to learn more about this issue is invited to read \"The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy\" by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, political scientists at the University of Chicago and Harvard, respectively. This lucid book outlines with scientific precision why the unconditional support of Israel by the United States has proven to be an unmitigated disaster for America\’s national security. It is must reading for understanding why the U.S. is again planning a criminal war on the behalf of Israel that will cost thousands of lives and further deplete and exhaust the nation\’s economy.

Will n Grazed • June 2nd, 2008 at 9:37 pm

Look for default clustering, sector-by-sector erosion, FED balance sheet devoted to \"temporary\" loans on increasingly impaired commercial and investment bank paper, Fed paying interest on borrowed reserves, see-saw between deep deflation in luxuries and top pyramid goods while deep inflation on necessities, commodities, energy, sovereign debt default risks, and then hard calls for protectionism – tariffs – trade embargoes. Real bad-ending endgame stuff.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 9:46 pm

I disagree, the kaos caused by the attack would help obama. the war in Lebanon surged prices to 74.00 that summer. That hurt the economy and paved the way for the Dems victory in 2006. Also, the attack will expose 150,000 soldiers to more attacks and will drive US casualties in Iraq higher. Thus, and a attack will help Obama.Please note that Bush wants Obama to be President so that he has to make very unpopular decisions in 2009.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 9:58 pm

Anyone juggling debt by pulling cash out of one credit card and using it to pay on balance of another? How\’d that work out? Goose – Gander? Today is the day of the pawn shops and loan-sharks or rather their alter-ego of Luigi & Bruno carrying their \"pursuader sticks\". Ya lika yer kneecaps?http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3f2c884-30f4-11dd-bc93-000077b07658.html

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm

\"1-Oil will go to $200 a barrel but we are going there from $130 not form $50 so the move is not as \’shocking\’\"trust me, it doesn\’t matter from where we get to $200. it will be equally shocking when we are at $200/barrel. you are all clueless and delusional.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:45 pm

“The most powerful and respected Nation in the World with the most magnificent Constitution and Bill of Rights ever constructed out of the minds of great men, elects the World\’s greatest moron and incompetent who takes their sons and daughters to die and shreds their legacy – because it’s just a ‘piece of paper.’”PeterJB, I commend you, that is priceless! I have put it in my quotation file.

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 pm

There have been lots of stories about an attack on Iran over the last 12-18 months. It now appears that most of these were a well-organized propaganda campaign to put pressure on Tehran.It\’s certainly credible that either Jerusalem or Washington might really decide to take military action. Personally, though, I think they have left things much too late. If they wanted to mount an attack, it should have been done at least 12 months ago. The Iranians have had plenty of time to prepare and the delay has only strengthened their decision.Personally, I would prefer to see peace. But the positions on all sides have hardened, and Iran has shown no real intent towards compromise. George Bush now faces the biggest decision of his presidential career. No matter what he decides, the implications will be big.PeteCA

Guest • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:45 pm

@PeterJB: “So, debt equal qualitative and quantitative profit; losses equal profits, too or: -8 = +160 (20:1 leverage) and -8 + -8 = +160 ahahahhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaa goood!\"Even Bloomberg seems astonished at the wizardry of the “new bond math.”Says Bloomberg in a part of this story posted by Guest on the last thread, “Banks are basically booking losses as gains and profiting from their losses! It is absolutely insane!!!!\"Don\’t believe I\’ll try it at the office yet, though.

Anonymous • June 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 pm

Ahmadinejad Calls U.S. \’Satanic,\’ Israel \’About to Die\’Monday, June 02, 2008http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,361705,00.html

Anonymous • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:28 am

Anonymous – after western media was caught in forging false videos about Tibet, can anyone believe it?There were numerous reports of inacurate translations of Ahmadinejad in the media.Two points on potential conflict:1. The Iranian reactor is up and running, so it destruction will be Chernobyl №2 – a major eco catastrophe.2. for some reason non of the posters considers what China may have to say about attack on Iran. Be aware of potential nuclear conflict in US treasuries and it results to US economy if 200 oil will not be enought.

AfA • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 am

@ Average JaneYou are welcome; laugh is the best antidote against high-blood pressure. You should thank financial \’stupidity\’ innovation though, it is far more sarcastic.@ Anonymous\"Ahmadinejad Calls U.S. \’Satanic,\’ Israel \’About to Die\’\"That\’s not a piece of news, Iranians have been calling America this way (\’The Greatest Satan\’ to be correct) for quite a long time (since Ayatollahs took power). U.S has been calling Iranians a terrorist state for longer time (until it was promoted – in both meanings – as part of Evil Axes). Europeans think Americans are chauvinists and Americans think Frenchies are dumb cheese-eaters and Brits as conspirators since the independence. U.S say Chinese make awful civil-rights protectors and China believe Americans are world-champions of double standards. Americans think arabs are an earth surcharge and Arabs think US have gone too far…See, people just look for reasons why they would hate a specific person or people. Antipathy is legitimate, but it should not drive you to react accordingly. You can believe in what Fox tells you, but it’s a little dangerous game we are playing. For one claim against Iran, we can easily find a 100 against U.S (or any other country/race/person by that matter). Is it a high-school-blond-cheerleader-stupid-sluts way of conducting politics? (sorry for that word)@ PeteCA, just a quick correction, we say “Tel Aviv or Washington might …”

London Banker • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:55 am

@ NourielPlease do not use the term \"anti-Western\" when what you really mean is \"anti-American or anti-Israel\". Iran is one of the most pro-Western countries in the Middle East in terms of lifestyle and attitudes of its people. If Iran learns to hate Israel and hate America, it will be because the violent actions and rhetoric of Israel and America are hateful, not because they do not share similar values or attitudes as people – or even governments. After all, religious extremism, exceptionalism fuelled by selective interpretation of history, and empire aspirations are common to all three nations, so arguably they are all three more similar than they are different.It is the countries of the world that preach and PRACTICE tolerance and non-violence that do not get represented in this conflict.@ AllThere is an excellent Kevin Phillips article on impeaching the Bernanke Fed on Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-phillips/time-to-end-bernanke-pank_b_104772.html

Anonymous • June 3rd, 2008 at 4:27 am

It appears people are forgetting about Russia. They are using oil money to modernize their military and regain super power status. They will not sit by and just watch. But then again, they would profit greatly from $200+ oil, get stronger, get richer and gain something they never before vis-a-vis the US: economic power. Remember that Reagan used economic power to destroy the Soviet Union. Don\’t be surprised when Russia turns around and does the same thing to us. Bush is destroying our country.

Jason B • June 3rd, 2008 at 5:05 am

The Air Force declared the B-2 bomber fleet — a critical weapons system in any U.S. attack on Iran — as airworthy again in late April. The Air Force had halted B-2 flights after a February crash in Guam. The Air Force has refitted its stealth bombers to carry 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs, needed to destroy Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities. A second U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, joined the carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Persian Gulf in May, carrying far more weaponry and ammunition than on previous deployments. Israel is gearing up for war. In April, it conducted its largest homeland military exercises ever. The Jewish-American source said Israel is “preparing for heavy casualties,” expecting to be the target of Iranian retribution following the U.S. attack. Saudi Arabia is taking steps to prepare for possible radioactive contamination from U.S. destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Saudi government reportedly approved nuclear fallout preparations a day after Cheney met with the kingdom’s highest-ranking officials. The USS Ross, an Aegis-class destroyer, has taken up station off the coast of Lebanon. Military observers speculate it is there to help defend Israel from missile attacks.

Wild Bill • June 3rd, 2008 at 5:54 am

There once was a man named McCain,The enemy shot down his plane.He sang out his plan,Of bombing Iran,Such evil derived from such pain.

AfA • June 3rd, 2008 at 6:58 am

Here we go, again?http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/lehman-on-ropes-again-looking-to-raise.htmlI\’m sad for my old employer.

OuterBeltway • June 3rd, 2008 at 9:45 am

It is important to recognize what lengths the oil, defense, and Israel/fundamentalists are willing to go in order to grab their respective slices of the pie. Look at how much of your welfare they are willing to gamble to get what they want.America doesn\’t have to be dependent upon mid-East oil. Some profit from it, but the vast majority of us are spending precious capital to keep a few rich families rich, instead of investing in our energy future. The very same case applies to the defense industry. There is no nation on Earth that threatens the U.S. militarily. The \"terrorism\" that is directed toward the U.S. will dry up as quickly as the U.S. recalls its multitude of troops from its multitude of bases throughout the world. We spend money on defense because it is enormously profitable for some families to do so. The Israel/Christian fundamentalists are stuck in time, fearful that rationalism might supercede the exceptionalism that is the sole basis of their relevance. If we didn\’t have yet another Abrahamic-religion war, would anyone pay them the least attention? What have the Abrahamic religions contributed to the world lately? Strife. It\’s well past time to move on. If the defense/oil/fundamentalist factions take this last, desperate chance to provoke war, then remember it well when you can no longer buy a house, fund your child\’s education, or pay for anything but the most basic necessities. Remember it. Take this opportunity to look for leaders that understand where wealth comes from. It doesn\’t come from destruction, and it doesn\’t come from finance. It doesn\’t come from garrison mentality, nor from so-called \"security\". Wealth comes from innovation and production. That\’s it. Innovation and production.How much time are your leaders spending to find and implement ways to increase innovation and production? Get new leaders.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 am

See, The Fed and Congress can\’t debase the inherent value of a gallon of gasoline. If your car would go 30 miles on it ten years ago, it will today. And tomorrow. And 20 years hence. The utility value can\’t be destroyed, unlike the \"paper value\" of a Treasury Bond if The Fed takes $400 billion worth of trash on its balance sheet in alphabet-soup swaps!

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 am

AfaThanks. You are quite right. I should have said Tel Aviv. And what I also really should have said is … Washington might use military tactics, but Tel Aviv most certainly will. Given the very difficult choices that they face, it\’s difficult to see any alternative. The consequences will be serious, though. Olmert should not have put this off for so long.PeteCA

Play On • June 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 am

Rally! Rally! Rally!Oil is down to $125 and change!Question for OPEC: If speculators are largely responsible for the 100% runup of oil in 12 months, why must OPEC have a floor to defend prices at $80?

Inner Beltway • June 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 am

Ask the Muslim world: How much time are your leaders spending to find and implement ways to increase innovation and production?

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am

@ London Banker: “If Iran learns to hate Israel and hate America, it will be because the violent actions and rhetoric of Israel and America are hateful…”This is true, and many other countries are hating us as well as we continue to implement the Bush WWIV plan and its gangster ethics. From “my country ‘tis of thee of thee I sing,” I now take a step at a time instead of striding boldly forward as I did in the past. Something in America has passed away, a glory which once shone about her.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 am

@Pete: “Given the very difficult choices that they (Israelis) face, it\’s difficult to see any alternative… The consequences will be serious, though. Pete, you allude to the difficult choices that Bush and Israel have to make, but have you not forgotten one of the legs on this three-legged stool, and that would be Iran? Iran is a small country faced with a host of world nuclear powers demanding that she not become a nuclear power but remain easily manipulated for her oil deposits and her status as third world country.It’s no secret that the reason we refuse to negotiate with Iran and are now negotiating with North Korea is that North Korea already has nuclear weapons. And, of course, North Korea doesn’t have oil reserves.

Trevor • June 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 am

PeteCA, will you please tell us why Israel has no other alternative but to preemptively bomb a nation that has not attacked it? Does Iran not have the right to develop its own electrical power generation in peace and security? If the combined intelligence agencies of the United States have formally declared that Iran has no ability now and will not have any capability in the near future to build nuclear weaponry, why then does Israel have no choice in the matter? Read your statement again: \"Washington might use military tactics, but Tel Aviv most certainly will. Given the very difficult choices that they face, it\’s difficult to see any alternative. The consequences will be serious, though. Olmert should not have put this off for so long.\" This is the kind of irrational extremism that starts useless wars, the kind of mentality that killed hundreds of thousands of U.S. soldiers in the past five years and murdered nearly a million civilians in Iraq while bankrupting the economy of the United States. It is useless to reiterate all of the good things we might have done in America with the wasted hundreds of billions of dollars for this war, not to mention the good we might have exported to other parts of the world. Frankly, for you to suggest that another preemptive attack on an innocent nation\’s nuclear generators is needed at this time because Israel feels \"existentially challenged\" is amoral to the extreme.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 11:41 am

Virgil, poet of Augustan power, wrote thusly as Jupiter, the supreme god of the Roman state:“I set upon the Romans bounds neither of space nor of time: I have bestowed on them empire without limit…\"The Romans’ special genius is to rule, \"to impose the ways of peace, to spare the defeated, and to crush those proud men who will not submit.”Out of range from the guns of Kosovo, at 30,000 feet, the young pilots from the Home of the Brave deliver the messages of peace, “spare the defeated” (as the legions of the noble Romans did before) and crush “those proud men who will not submit.”And on to Iraq, and on to Iran — in the noble quest of empire.For as Churchill said in the halls of Versailles in 1918 as the victors carved up Europe in unprecedented greed, ”One must satisfy an excited crowd.”

Trevor • June 3rd, 2008 at 11:43 am

In my haste and the raw anger I felt as I typed my last post, I grossly misstated Iraq War casualties. The Lancet estimates that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis had been killed as of 2006 (estimated 600,000 two years ago; some have since put the number closer to a million). Tens of thousands of American soldiers have been wounded, and thousands have died.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 11:55 am

Sorry, correction: The 5-month-long Versailles negotiations began in January 1919, not 1918.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm

Ah, leadership! Julie Bosman in today’s NY Times on “Holdout Superdelegates” writes:Robert Rankin, an uncommitted superdelegate from California, arrived home on Monday afternoon to find a last-minute telephone message from a surrogate for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, presumably to ask – again – for his support.But after months of holding out, and after listening to endless pitches from both sides, Mr. Rankin said he was still determined to wait until Wednesday, after Montana and South Dakota had voted, to announce his decision.“On Wednesday, I can look at stuff, talk to people,” said Mr. Rankin, a retired steelworker and union organizer. “You know, the popular vote matters, the delegate count matters, the swing states matter, my union matters, my wife matters. They all matter.”But by Wednesday, will Mr. Rankin and anyone else who is still uncommitted matter?…

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm

The nuclear fallout from bombing Iran will have a half life of 700 million years. That is a duration difficult to comprehend. Jesus Christ was preaching a mere 2 thousand years ago. In the evolution of humans, our earliest ape-like ancestors were walking upright a mere 5 million years ago. The Bush administration and its Israeli advisors are now planning to contaminate the planet for 700 million years. From the rhetoric of Presidential candidates John McCain and Hillary Clinton, they, too, think that is a good idea. The US media seem to applaud.Either Americans do not understand what it is they are preparing to do, or they think themselves immune to the consequences. The planet is not large. What goes around, comes around. Smoke from the Gulf War oil fires went around the world and was detected in South America. Radioactive fallout from bombing a nuclear reactor will also go far, especially considering that it has millions of years to make the trip.The Persian Gulf nations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran have more than half the world’s known oil reserves. The 1981 study by Fetter and Tsipis in Scientific American on “Catastrophic Releases of Radioactivity” estimated that bombing a nuclear reactor would cause 8600 square miles around the reactor to be uninhabitable, depending on which way the wind blows. Bombing the Bushehr reactor will mean half of the world’s oil is instantly inaccessible. Bombing Iran means that Americans will not be driving cars any where, any more, for a long, long time. The American Way of Life will be finished. An economic collapse unimagined by Americans will follow. Mechanized farming and food transport will be finished. Famine is a possibility. Food riots are a certainty, in the land of plenty, with the fuel gauge on empty.The nations of the world cannot rely on the USA and its Israeli advisors to be rational about bombing reactors. It is insane to say, “All options are on the table”, and it is a crime against humanity. The USA and Israel are preparing the public to accept such insanity by announcing that they successfully bombed a Syrian nuclear reactor, with no ill effects. Israel has also recently released video of its 1981 bombing of the Osiraq nuclear reactor in Iraq. See, it’s easy. Nothing bad happens. But those were both construction sites, not loaded reactors full of tons of enriched uranium.

Christopher • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:14 pm

I am surprised that the article did not mention Iran selling oil in currencies other than the US Dollar. Remember, Iraq started selling Oil in EURO prior to the US attack on Iraq. I believe that if Israel (with help of US) attacks Iran (backed by Russia and China) and oil goes to $200, this would qualify as a national emergency and would be reason enough to postpone or even cancel the November US elections.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 12:20 pm

…radioactive isotopes are dangerous to health because they emit alpha particles and because they are chemically toxic. When inhaled, they damage lung tissue. When ingested, they damage kidneys and cause cancer in bones and in liver tissues. According to a recent review of medical research, uranium exposure causes babies to be deformed or born dead.Never in history has it happened that nuclear power plants and nuclear enrichment facilities have been deliberately bombed. Such facilities, everywhere in the world, operate under severe safety conditions because the release of radioactive materials is deadly, immediately and also long after exposure. If the USA or Israel deliberately bomb a fully fueled nuclear power plant or nuclear fuel enrichment facilities, containment will be breached; radioactive elements will be released into the environment. There will be horrific deaths for families in the surrounding vicinity. The Union of Concerned Scientists has estimated 3 million deaths would result in 3 weeks from bombing the nuclear enrichment facilities near Esfahan, and the contamination would cover Afghanistan, Pakistan, all the way to India.Reactors and enrichment facilities are built of extra strong concrete, often with multiple layers of containment domes, often built underground. Bombing such facilities will require powerful explosives, earth penetrator war heads, maybe nuclear warheads. The explosions will blow the contamination high into the atmosphere. Where will it go is a question that is difficult to predict….Bombing the Bushehr reactor will mean half of the world’s oil is instantly inaccessible. Bombing Iran means that Americans will not be driving cars any where, any more, for a long, long time. The American Way of Life will be finished. An economic collapse unimagined by Americans will follow. Mechanized farming and food transport will be finished. Famine is a possibility. Food riots are a certainty, in the land of plenty, with the fuel gauge on empty.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8839Worth reading the whole thing.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm

…is the number 86% of the world\’s people live in places that are environmental time bombs hurricane alleys,earthquake zones,volcanoes,drought,etc…no need for more bombs since mother nature has a way of blowing her top when she needs a cool down!

Alessandro • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:30 pm

@martin,you there? get ready for some night overtime! LEH is collapsing so fast it is unreal. -13,50% as I type.If this goes all the way to the bankrouptcy court, it is not going to be nice for anyone.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices extend their losses as disappointing auto sales data from General Motors (GM 17.20, -0.24) hits the wires.General Motors reported May North American sales fell 28%, compared to the expected decline of roughly 20%. Truck sales plummeted 39%, while car sales fell 17%. GM\’s stock reverses into the red, going from a gain of 4.2% to a loss of 1.4%. GM\’s announced early this morning that it is closing four North America auto plants in an effort to save costs.

Anonymous • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm

Guest – good that u posted the article here. The idea of bombing a running nuclear reactor is just sick, anyone with evenpassing knowldge of physics can attest.Chernobyl which is considered the greatest eco disaster, had only fire in the reactor, no explotion. Bombing would be catastrophic.And that is precicely the reason why US or Israel is very unlikely to bomb the reactor. Hiroshima and Nagasaki will be a kid\’s play compared to this.Bu then US is run by a person which image resembles more a monkey than a human, you never know. Obviously he did not have good grades in physic at school.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm

just like yesterday, the 2:00 crew will be in the market minimizing the damage. We can\’t have US stocks drop any more than 1% at any given time-only world indexes can drop 2%-3%!

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm

It is almost an embarrasment to be a US citizen now between the war-mongering, snooping president to the drunken-hoar toating spenders in congress to the omnipotent fed thieves that line wall street and bank pockets at the expense of the US citizen!

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm

…looks like tied capitalism (jobs for tax breaks) didn\’t work out in the long runOntario Premier Dalton McGuinty said GM will probably breach terms of a loan agreement with the province, which has been hurt by the ongoing turmoil in the auto industry, while company officials also acknowledged it may have to return some money.

Hubbs • June 3rd, 2008 at 3:21 pm

Who said anything about bombing a nuclear plant? What about a commando raid with heavy air support to knock out the surrounding defense systems, and once the perimeter is secure, then bring in the experts to document and dismantle the reactor?

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 4:11 pm

\"What about a commando raid with heavy air support to knock out the surrounding defense systems, and once the perimeter is secure, then bring in the experts to document and dismantle the reactor?\"Sure. Just as in Iraq, such a strategy would be sure to succeed.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm

people on this blog need to read up on nuclear reactors and how they work. the idea that bombing a nuclear reactor would cause a catastrophic result is laughable.

Guest • June 3rd, 2008 at 5:55 pm

Here is the publication list of Steve Fetter, whose conclusions you call \"laughable\":http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/publications.htmHere is further information about the effects of an attack on Iran using nuclear \"bunker buster\" bombs:http://www.physorg.com/news64505715.html\"Thirteen of the nation’s most prominent physicists have written a letter to President Bush, calling U.S. plans to reportedly use nuclear weapons against Iran \’gravely irresponsible\’ and warning that such action would have \’disastrous consequences for the security of the United States and the world.\’\"Such ignorance as displayed by your comment would be laughable if it weren\’t so frightening.

Anonymous • June 6th, 2008 at 10:44 am

So Israel is just supposed to sit there and hope that the lunatic leader of Iran doesn\’t mean what he says? The point is that if they take out the reactor early enough (as in Iraq in 1981 and in Syria in 2007) the damage can be limited. If they wait, their choice is to just sit there (and hope Iran doesn\’t really mean it when it says Israel is a stinking corpse that will be wiped off the face of the earth), or suffer a nuclear holocaust and then maybe respond by wiping out Iran. All of the juvenile, name-calling, Bush-hating, and Israel-hating posters on this site can\’t really think fairly about this. They are really quite o.k. with the annihilation of Israel and maybe even the U.S. The implacable hatred emanating from some of these posts is just scary. But, of course, they don\’t see it that way; they\’re righteous, good, and quite justified in their burning anger. Feels good to be so sure of something, to suffer such little doubt, no? Isn\’t this exactly the trait of which you accuse Bush and all those terrible, awful christian fundamentalists? Iran has been hating Israel and the U.S. since the days of Jimmy Carter. The idea that the U.S. alone has caused this terrible situation can only be accepted uncritically by those possessed with a deep-seated need to hate the U.S., its President, and its ally Israel.

mashiach ben chana • June 8th, 2008 at 12:25 am

The below teachings may very well apply to current world events:Rabbi Yitzchak said: \"The year that the King Mashiach reveals himself, all of the nations of the world will be provoking one another. The king of Persia will provoke the King of Arabia and the King of Arabia will go to the King of Aram to take advice from them. The king of Persia will [then] return and destroy the entire world and all the nations of the world will be in an uproar and will be confounded and they will say \’Where shall we come and go, to where shall we come and go.\’ And He (HaShem) shall say to them (the Jewish People), \’My sons, do not fear, everything that I have done, I have done only for you. For what are you fearing, do not fear, the time of your redemption has arrived…\" Pirkei D\’Rabbi Eliezer, Yishayahu, 499 yalkut sheminiwas written 800 years agi

Guest • June 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm

The two posts above illustrate how irrational supporters of Israel can be. In the name of religion and racism alone, they would bomb hundreds of thousands of innocents, pollute the environment with radioactive waste for hundreds of thousands of years, and immediately send oil to catastrophic highs, which would quickly plunge USA into a major depression. Thanks guys — and glad to know you are resting easier for ensuring that those poor Israelis can sleep well at night.

Anonymous • June 11th, 2008 at 10:46 pm

Israel will probably attack Iran before November but I dont beleive Israeli airstrikes can destroy Iran\’s nuclear capabilities fully. From what I understand, Iran\’s secret nuclear facilites are spread out all over Iran and Israel doesn\’t have that kind of intelligence to find all of them. I also dont believe an October attack would guarantee a McCain victory.\"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.\" – Abraham Lincoln

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