http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFZ5qPxNMywA&refer=homeU.S. Economy Expanded at 0.6% Pace in First Quarter (Update1) By Shobhana ChandraApril 30 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy expanded at a 0.6 percent annual pace in the first quarter as an increase in inventories compensated for weaker consumer spending and a drop in business investment. …“We think we\’re in recession, but I don\’t know that the GDP numbers are going to turn negative at all in 2008,\’\’ said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, in a interview with Bloomberg Television. “If you were to take out the swing in inventories, these numbers would be negative.\’\’ Spending by households, the biggest part of the economy, grew last quarter at the slowest pace since 2001, when the U.S. was in a recession, as job losses mounted, food and fuel prices surged and property values tumbled. Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to cut the benchmark interest rate today to limit the downturn…Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a 1 percent annual pace, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 2001 and less than half the 2.3 percent increase in the previous quarter. Americans have retrenched as employers cut payrolls by almost a quarter million workers so far this year, gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon and home foreclosures surged…. Companies also cut back. Business fixed investment, which includes spending on commercial construction and equipment and software, dropped at a 2.5 percent annual rate, the biggest decline since the first three months of 2004, after increasing 6 percent the prior quarter. Spending on new equipment and software fell at a 0.7 percent rate. Investment in residential construction projects fell at an annual rate of 27 percent, the most since 1981. The drop took away 1.23 percentage points from GDP, after a 1.25 percent drag in the prior quarter. Housing has subtracted from growth since the first three months of 2006. Inventories Rise Companies added to stockpiles at a $1.8 billion annual rate, after an annualized decline of $18.3 billion in the final three months of 2007. The figures added 0.8 percentage point to growth. The buildup may give way to cutbacks in production in coming months as businesses try to clear unwanted stockpiles. “As inventories are worked off, economic activity may decline outright this quarter,\’\’ Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said before the report. Automakers already are pulling back. General Motors Corp., the world\’s largest automaker, this week said it is cutting production by 138,000 large pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles this year at four plants in the U.S. and Canada. “A significant adjustment was needed to align our production with market realities,\’\’ Troy Clarke, Detroit-based GM\’s North American president, said in a statement.

While the .6 GDP is nothing to be happy about on the face of it, anyone who reads the details should be downright sad. Even exports slowed from the 4th qtr pace.With inventory building adding 0.8 percentage points to growth, the headline GDP figure was stronger than the details of the report.Final sales of domestic product fell 0.2%, while final domestic sales dropped 0.4%, the first decline since the recession of 1991.Consumer spending increased 1% after rising 2.3% in the fourth quarter, the weakest growth since the 2001 recession and less than half its growth in the fourth quarter. Spending on durable goods fell 6.1%. Spending on nondurable goods fell 1.3%, the biggest decline in 17 years. as consumers cut back on the amount of food and energy they purchased. Business investment fell 2.5% annualized after a 6.0% increase in the fourth quarter. Investments in structures dropped 6.2%. Investments in equipment and software dropped 0.7%. Inventories increased by $1.8 billion after falling $18.3 billion. The change in inventories added 0.8 percentage points to growth.Residential investments fell at a 26.7% annual pace after falling 25.2% in the fourth quarter. Exports increased 5.5% after 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter. Imports rose 2.5% after falling 1.4%.The GDP price index rose at a 2.6% annual pace, the fastest inflation in a year. Consumer prices increased at 3.5% pace.JH

9:35 Treasury decides to bring back one-year bill

9:48 Jones Apparel posts 59% profit plunge, lowers outlook

US stocks are the biggest con game going right now. Vegas and Wall Thief should just merge and get it over with…

All of this con-data is now working against the Fed instead of for it. You can only tell lies for so long before the hammer of justice bonks you on the head!

@AllBack to back negative GDP quarters defines a recession. What is the statistical definition of a depression?

Iran dumps U.S. dollar for oil tradeshttp://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/04/30/iran.oil.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryviewSecond carrier group heading into Persian Gulf:http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN2937818820080430

@KJFIf you capitulate, you run the risk of becoming another reverse indicator like AB St.L

@GirafDo you see a change in sentiment? I notice that LEH and UBS soared on shareholder dilution and now Citi drops, but the market still rallies on any new, no?

Giraf on 2008-04-30 09:45:05“If you capitulate, you run the risk of becoming another reverse indicator like AB St.L”Yes, I realize that, but I have no choice; it is a matter of capital preservation.The “great moderation” is alive!

Look how MarkeWatch spins the Citi news!!! \"Swelling demand for fresh shares allows bank to raise $4.5 billion in new offering, with each share priced at $25.27. Tuesday close: $26.81\"The con game is in full swing! You watch, stocks will finish up 600 point today LETS PARTY!! Rampant inflation, mounting job loss, war starting with Iran, 8 other countries now with inverted yield curves, insolvent banking system, beating lowered estimates…LETS PARTY!! LETS PARTY!!!

@AlessandroI think the Citi think is different because only 2 weeks ago their CFO said they\’d have no new capital needs. Clearly, they\’ve found another \"surprise\" on their books.

Look at the pictures of how people have to live and look at the incomes of those who are imposing those conditions on them. If you have any trouble deciding whose side you’re on, you’ve gone to the wrong website. CEO $209,371.58$172,458.86 $168,954.08$168,150.75CHIEF FIN. OFFICER $167,649.55$155,687.22 VP $137,594.97 MANAGER $132,640.46 MANAGER $132,400.28 GM $121,342.67, DIRECTOR $116,957.33DIRECTOR $116,957.29 MANAGER $110,793.54 DIRECTOR $108,907.52 DIRECTOR $106,978.35DIRECTOR $106,522.28 DIRECTOR $104,754.22$103,024.54 DIRECTOR $103,002.20http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080425/WFIVE_landlord_080426/20080426/

@K J Foehr on the depressionIn 1929 none knew a Great Depression has already started. My feeling is that, if we really get a GDII, future historians will date the beginning of the economic downturn in 2001 and will call a double dip depression.As for proof of a recession. The only way the US has kept its collective head out of the water (and GDP to zero) is thanks to massive borrowing from the poors of the world. This can\’t go on forever.

Wall Street guys doesn\’t seem to be interested in ugly dteşail of GDP Q1 data. The only thing they are interested in is pushing the markets up.

This should help:\"TEHRAN, Iran – A top Oil Ministry official says Iran, OPEC\’s second-largest producer, has completely stopped conducting all its oil transactions in U.S. dollars. Iran has dramatically reduced dependence on the dollar over the past year in the face of increasing U.S. pressure on its financial system and the fall in the value of the American currency.\"Meanwhile, we are moving a 2nd carrier to the gulf. This ain\’t gonna be pretty.

Did you actually believe the GDP price index rose at ONLY 2.6% annual pace? And, Consumer prices increased ONLY 3.5%?? Thank God with these LOW inflation, we have a positive GDP.Oh by the way, look for Bernanke to come out today announcing excuse of INFLATION IS MODERATING and cut interest rates, and imply more cuts are coming. Bernanke and a few other evil FED governors/presidents (especially the lady based in San Franciso CA) really deserve your praying to die slowly in pain.

Dow up 600 today…

have a nice rate cut everybody

So Nouriel, how does knowing the truth help us to protect ourselves when the rest of the powers that be live in fantasy and the financial markets reflect their perception rather than reality? Knowing the horrible reality of the GDP numbers just doesn\’t matter because stocks are up 11% off the lows and about ready to go to new highs. Yet, those of us on the outside don\’t posess the inside information to stay on the right side of the trade? Help….

I beg to differ, this is not about being a trader, it is about protecting hard-earned assets like your 401K or money in the bank. It used to be \"being informed\" was being saved, now being informed seems to work against you.

My definition of recession:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrG3DVrJ0BNg.asfGood ol\’ Stiglitz

@ Guest on 2008-04-30 12:45:00-The easy answer to your question is you protect yourself and your family. Stop trying to make money on a rigged game – this isn\’t Vegas baby – you are not going to win if you keep playing.Spend some time thinking about what it is we are being told by our government. Add it all up and see if it makes sense to you. If it does and you see no reason to distrust those in power, then congratulations! All you will ever deserve is on its way.But if, like many here, you feel like the reality is different from what is being presented, then ask yourself why. Who benefits from calm masses? Who benefits from people leaving their money in the market? Who benefits from higher oil prices? Starting to get a picture yet?Follow me a bit further down the road…..How much money does the government pay out in Social Security each month?The Social Security system automatically adjusts payments up to keep pace with inflation by law. What would happen to the federal budget if recipients got real inflation-adjusted checks? Again, who benefits from the distorted figures?Here\’s another piece for you – since 1970, the lowest quintile of the population has seen their real income fall while the upper most quintile has seen a 50% increase. If you look at just the top 1% of earners (the wealthiest) they have seen an increase of 300% over the same time period.If people really knew and understood who was making all the money and held all the power and got all the perks and told all the lies – they would revolt. I have used this before, but think about France in the 18th century. She may not have said it, but the line \"let them eat cake\" that was attributed to Marie Antoinette is not much different than what the wealthiest Americans (and those in power) are saying to us now.

History will prove that we are presently in a DEpression, just on the upper end of a particularly vicious correction that has everyone second guessing themselves and blaming gov\’t and corruption.

@KJ“Good!! Let\’s have a dialog. I think your point is that the data does not show we are in recession. My support comes from NR (see above). Additional support is provided below. Now the ball is in your court.”Yes, I saw that on the Big Picture, and I agree that inflation is distorting a lot of the numbers we are getting. But in order to have a severe recession or depression, we need A LOT more than a slight negative GDP in “real” terms. That is just tinkering at the edges of it. We are not expecting a “technical” recession but a big one, right?My other point was that it is taking too long! Housing peaked nearly two years ago; I don’t think it should take that long to begin to see REAL signs of severe recession like rapidly rising jobless claims and unemployment, materially negative GDP, falling stock market, severely declining corporate earnings and earnings guidance, etc. It appears to me that what we have seen so far is consistent with a slowing economy, but not a collapse into depression or even severe recession.IMO, the longer this goes on without REAL economic damage that shows up in negative GDP and higher unemployment, the more likely it is that the accommodative rates and fiscal stimulus and injected liquidity will begin to significantly offset the economic damage done by housing and the CC.I was expecting something like 1974 or 1982, but at this point I would settle for ‘90-’91!

Hallelujah! Selling!Wonder of wonders, miracle of miracles-God took a bear’s hand once again,Stood by his and side and- miracle of miracles- Walked him through the mean bulls den!I covered one, but may not need to do anymore today!

Ted Spread dropped from 1.70 to 1.39 just days before cut, now moving up again. Dollar intervention talk seems hollow now.

Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet By ANNE D\’INNOCENZIO, AP Business Writer Tue Apr 29, 6:04 PM ET NEW YORK – The for-sale listings on the online hub Craigslist come with plaintive notices, like the one from the teenager in Georgia who said her mother lost her job and pleaded, \"Please buy anything you can to help out.\" Or the seller in Milwaukee who wrote in one post of needing to pay bills — and put a diamond engagement ring up for bids to do it.Struggling with mounting debt and rising prices, faced with the toughest economic times since the early 1990s, Americans are selling prized possessions online and at flea markets at alarming rates.To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother\’s dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful — families forced to part with heirlooms.\"This is not about downsizing. It\’s about needing gas money,\" said Nancy Baughman, founder of eBizAuctions, an online auction service she runs out of her garage in Raleigh, N.C. One former affluent customer is now unemployed and had to unload Hermes leather jackets and Versace jeans and silk shirts.At Craigslist, which has become a kind of online flea market for the world, the number of for-sale listings has soared 70 percent since last July. In March, the number of listings more than doubled to almost 15 million from the year-ago period.…http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_bi_ge/cashing_out_the_atticNow that sounds like a recession!

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/04/30/gas-thefts.htmlThe rising price of gasoline has made it an attractive target for thefts, ranging from highly organized bulk heists to the siphoning of fuel from vehicle tanks.Thieves have stolen thousands of litres from a number of Montreal gas stations\’ holding tanks. Pierre Zarifeh\’s station on Saint-Michel Boulevard was the victim of a bulk theft, when a cube van pulled up and pumped thousands of litres of diesel fuel from an underground tank.Montreal police couldn\’t provide an exact number of stations hit, but Const. Anie Lemieux said several investigations are underway. The thieves are highly organized, she observed. \"You have to be pretty equipped to be able to get into the main tanks.\"Jane Savage, president of the Canadian Independent Petroleum Marketers Association, whose members sell about 6.5 billion litres of gas, diesel and heating fuel a year, said she hadn\’t heard anything specific about increased thefts, but it generally happens when prices go up.The national average cost of a litre of regular gas was $1.252 on Tuesday, up 2.2 cents from the previous week and 15 cents from a year ago, Calgary-based MJ Ervin & Associates said.Police in the Lake Charles, La., area have increased patrols after thieves stole gas from transports by cutting fuel lines or breaking into tanks, according to WDSU.com.Police are investigating at least nine thefts, said Lake Charles police Sgt. Mark Kraus.In Rock Hill, S.C., the Herald newspaper website reported that thieves cut fuel lines and stole gas from vehicles used to transport developmentally disabled adults.Zarifeh, the Montreal gas station operator, said he has spent thousands of dollars installing security cameras and plans to park cars over his tanks at night.But \"many guys are just closing the gas pumps\" because of the losses.He said he\’s considering that option.

Written by Maundermin on 2008-04-30 14:34:05“If your basing your prediction that we are not headed for a severe recession based on the current GDP figures, than I would advise you to have a look at the historical GDP table at the following site:http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp#Mid”Thanks for the good info. Actually I am not really basing anything on the number today. I am mostly intuitive; my decisions are heavily influenced by anecdotal evidence and my gut reaction to the sum total of what I see, hear, and read. This morning I was just very disappointed and frustrated that GDP was still positive and with the continuing six week rally in stocks. I mean the street and most talking heads (apparently) are looking for a recession in the first and second quarters, and then a rebound in the second half, so when the first Q comes in positive, what does that leave!? One quarter of negative GDP? That is not going to move stock prices down much, IMO; we need more than that! So I was worried the rally would really take off looking past the recession altogether.But, the sell-off this afternoon tells me they may begin focusing more on the fundamentals now instead of more rate cuts from the Fed.

The battle goes on. Remember there is lots of noise in day-to-day data. IMHO, the analysis by the bear side has been deeper and more robust than that of the bulls (remember, subprime is well-contained etc.) Housing and its effect on the economy should continue to take its toll on the economy as evidenced in today\’s GDP report. And as Gloomy pointed out, the rest of the world should follow.The significance of today in the equity markets is that it wouldn\’t have taken much effort to paint the tape red on the last day of the month and that didn\’t happen. The bond market was happy about the move. In ended the day well on both counts:-)It is getting closer to departure time (Sunday May 4), will try to squeeze in a few posts until then.

FDIC Offers Up Home Ownership Preservation Loanshttp://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/fdic-offers-up-home-ownership-preservation-loans/

@Gloomy,I think your point about lowering rates too much too soon became even more potent today. The Fed was not as hawkish as I expected. The USD may continue lower now, and oil and other commodities higher, putting even more pressure on tapped out consumers!US Dollar Index Futures Spot Pr(NYBOT: DX-Y.NYB) Index Value: 72.57Trade Time: 4:25PM ETChange: down 0.32 (- 0.45%)Prev Close: 72.895Open: 72.876Day\’s Range: 72.49 – 73.11

4:36 Paulson says any U.S. growth remarkable given headwinds

Thanks for the good info. Actually I am not really basing anything on the number today. I am mostly intuitive; my decisions are heavily influenced by anecdotal evidence and my gut reaction to the sum total of what I see, hear, and read. This morning I was just very disappointed and frustrated that GDP was still positive and with the continuing six week rally in stocks. I mean the street and most talking heads (apparently) are looking for a recession in the first and second quarters, and then a rebound in the second half, so when the first Q comes in positive, what does that leave!? One quarter of negative GDP? That is not going to move stock prices down much, IMO; we need more than that! So I was worried the rally would really take off looking past the recession altogether.But, the sell-off this afternoon tells me they may begin focusing more on the fundamentals now instead of more rate cuts from the Fed.Thanks for the reply. I can surely understand your frustration. The equity market continues to defy real economic fundamentals, but I believe that this period of \"irrational exuburance\" will dissipate fairly quickly as it must contend with a larger volume of malign economic news. The situition can be decribed in terms of chaos theory as it relates to pertutbations in initial, fluid-flows:A flapping butterfly cannot effect significant changes to the larger-scale atmospheric flow, because the the flapping-wings do not generate a coherent flow to the interacting non-linear larger-scale flow, sufficient enough to carry the generated heat (information) to the larger atmospheric flow. The reaason being that the heat generated within the micro-scale flow becomes quickly dissipated as it moves through a larger-volume, larger-scale fluid flow, such that while changes on the micro-scale become watered down so much that the larger-flow absorbes it into a homogeneous fluid-state. In economic terms, the current buzz on wall-street will become quickly absorbed into the larger, fundamental-scale economic flow.This seems to be playing out exactly according to classic, boom-bust historical scripts. As they say, Bear markets are seductive beasts and so, when the tide goes out it becomes clear who was swimming naked. My clothes are still on.

Ok Allesandro…They did it today! They broke through that 13,000 ceiling that I didn’t think would happen. (In defense of my call from January 24th, they have since added Chevron and BoA, and removed Altria and Honeywell from the DOW. The run on CVX has aided the DOW’s return to 13,000.) That prediction held for 3 full months and was challenged quite a few times by the irrational markets.To quote: “If the current “rules” don’t change, and I were to make a long term prediction, (i.e. the bubble is forced to fully deflate in a controlled manner), I see DOW somewhere between 10,800 and 10,100. (S&P 1,180 and 1,100) If control is lost, I see a bottom at DOW 8,500 and S&P 900. Short term, I have a hard time seeing us back above 13,000.”With that said, I believe equities are near or at their turning point. …so my advice to the gansta formerly known as JMa, a conservative shorting approach may start to pay. …but then again… I’m no Eliot Ness. Either way, don’t forget to pay your taxes, because the Gov’ts gonna need their share to cover the rebate checks.Distressed debt just got as cheap as it will likely get with borrowed dollars. IMO, Un-invested cash will look at the Equity RvR models unfavorably. …so those chasing return will likely return to the debt products.Miss America@ Miss Italy – no problem at all.

@MA, i am intentionally refraining from specific calls at the moment and have actually been sending them to myself rather than posting them(weird, strange, whatever…) the sun is shining here in Chicago, it is starting to warm up again – it will be an enjoyable evening and could perhaps be a great Spring. it was a very looonnnggg end of winter and early spring the past few months – things were really stretched out.

As the day traders and short sellers here might say;What does the mortgage market, consumer insolvency, unemployment, and the general economic health of America for that matter have to do with the stock market…

For interesting discussion of the FED:http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24380310Big Investors See Recession, Wall Street Depression

The kings of consensus forecasting are out with what I consider to be a fairly good picture of the short term and associated fixed income strategy:http://media.pimco-global.com/pdfs/pdf/MSF023-041608_Market%20Outlook.pdf

Written by J. on 2008-04-30 17:49:05great post! IMO, the post of the day. Your mentioning of Kasriel reminded me to check his take on the GDP number/FED action:http://www.northerntrust.com/popups/popup_noprint.html?http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0804/document/dd043008.pdfThe best dissection of the FOMC statement I have seen so far. Their analysis of Q1 GDP is the most detailed I have seen as well. Just the first few lines:U.S. Economy Has Stalled For the Second Quarter in a RowThe U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first quarter, matching the gain seen in fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2007. Effectively, the economy has grown in only two quarters of the last five quarters. The important difference to note between the first and fourth quarters is that inventories added substantially to the growth of the economy ($1.8 billion vs. -$18.3 billion in the fourth quarter) in the first three months of 2008 while it subtracted from GDP in the last three months of 2007. The implication is that in an environment of significantly weak economic conditions, the big build up in inventories in the first quarter entails a likely cutback in production in the second quarter. Real final sales (GDP less inventories) declined 0.2% in the first quarter, indicative of a contraction in demand. A larger contraction of real final sales last occurred in the third quarter of 2001, excluding the Katrina-related 0.5% drop in real final sales in the fourth quarter of 2005….

The depopulating is just a plan by US, UK, and UN to solve issues such as the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gases, the economy, etc. It\’s one of the reasons for the urban warfare training done in U.S. cities and a big reason for all the law changes excused on 9/11. I guess their depopulation target will be the organized religions.

Written by Guest on 2008-04-30 18:53:57r u da moonie guy wit da funky website trolling again?

Written by Octavio Richetta on 2008-04-30 18:19:53Thanks, my above was a condensed version of a number of posts that I\’ve made elsewhere over the last few months.And, you know, when speaking to Gross Domestic Product, a lot depends upon what is taken to constitute \’product\’. From what Shaikh and Tonak published in 1994, Measuring the Wealth of Nations: The Political Economy of National Accounts, it\’s evident that quite a bit of what modern national accounts consider to fall within that category should not but, rather, be classified as social consumption:Consider the basic difference between production and consumption. Production activity uses up wealth to create new wealth (i.e., to achieve a production outcome). Personal consumption uses up wealth to maintain and reproduce the individual (a nonproduction outcome). In like manner, military, police, administrative, and trading activities use up wealth in the pursuit of protection, distribution, and administration (also nonproduction outcomes). The issue is not one of necessity, because all these activities are necessary, in some form or the other, for social reproduction (Beckerman 1968, pp. 27-8). Rather, the issue concerns the nature of the outcome; protection, distribution, and administration are really forms of social consumption, not production. At the heart of this discussion is a distinction between outcome and output. Not all outcomes are outputs. This is evidently the case with personal consumption, whose outcome is the maintenance of the individual, not the production of new wealth. It is our contention that the same reasoning applies to the other social activities listed. It should be emphasized that the distinction being made is between production and nonproduction activities, not between goods and services. We shall see that a substantial portion of service activities (transportatinn, lndging, entertainment, repairs, etc.) will be classified under production, whereas others (wholesale/retail, financial services, legal services, advertising, military, civil service, etc.) will be classified as nonproduction activities. The real distinction is between outcomes and output. All activity results in outcomes. Some outcomes are also outputs, directly adding to social wealth. But others preserve or circulate this wealth, or help maintain and administer the social structure in which it is embedded. Our general approach is rooted in the classical tradition, parts of which can be found in Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, Mill, Marx, Sismondi, Baudrillart, and Chalmers, among others (Studenski 1958, p. 20). Although its presentation was incomplete and occasionally inconsistent, it was nonetheless part of “the mainstream of economic thought for almost a century” (Kendrick 1968, p. 20). Only when neoclassical economics rose to the fore was the classical distinction between production and nonproduction activities displaced by the notion that all socially necessary activities, other than personal consumption, resulted in a product (Bach 1966, p. 45). Under the neoclassical definition, an activity is considered a production activity if it is deemed socially necessary. This in turn rests on the conclusion that (at least some) people would be willing to pay for it directly (Bach 1966, p. 45). It follows that, within neoclassical economics, all potentially marketable activities are considered to be production activities. * The ideological convenience of a definition of production which treats all market activities as productive is obvious.You can see where this line of analysis might lead — how much growth is not-growth?

Far from being the shock absorber, Europe may prove to be the accelerator of this post-bubble denouement.Once you add Europe to the Anglo-Saxon and Japanese sick list, you reach 60pc of world GDP, and two thirds world demand.This leaves the global boom on tenuously narrow ground. Who is going to buy all those exports from China? Who is going to keep pushing commodity prices into the stratosphere? This bear growls on.

Plus, decoupling as it is good news for multinational companies, it is a catastroph for consumers as demand for energy and food from emerging markets will keep prices in the roofs.

Yankee,I am looking into solar now. We have cut many tall pines that had obscured our southern exposure and we now are wide open to the south. I am interested in solar for electricity for now, perhaps hot water later. I do not know how well they work with snow – I have contacted a local installer for more information. Right now, Maine is offering a 25% tax rebate on installation of solar equipment.I would like to have storage (battery back-up system) as well as feed what I don\’t use into the grid and have the local utility pay me for it. But I am not sure if we can do both.All I know for sure is that I can\’t afford another winter like this one. As oil continues to rise, I want to be free of its hold as much as possible.Nice to see you posting again, by the way.

Kind of funny but in todays world you can publicly criticize even God without problems, but try criticizing Israel…

To All (especially those that know anything about international money `flows`).The following comment by LB prompted me to write this post: “lowering rates may be counterproductive to the objective of increasing demand as lower rates discourage foreign creditors from lending more to finance US consumption.“There is widespread misconception about international money `flows`.The reality is that apart from the US$ held in tourists wallets, in drug dealers caches and those used as a medium of exchange in lesser developed countries, international holdings of US$ are held in the U.S. and U.S. securities. Money doesn`t flow in or flow out of the country. The ownership of dollars may change and the owners` investment preference may change but unless the U.S. Treasury intervenes in the FX market by buying U.S.$, there can be no net sellers of US$. Think about it. You buy a Chinese widget and write a cheque to the supplier for $100. Money leaves your bank account and enters the supplier`s. Supplier pays the Chinese manufacturer and the money moves to the manufacturers bank account, either in the US or in China. If it is the latter, the bank in Beijing has a correspondent bank in the US and that is where the deposit resides. The Chinese company sells the US$ for Yuan. The Chinese bank`s NY correspondent bank moves the US$ to the US$ buyer`s account. But the US$ remain in the U.S. banking system. Whether the new owner of those US$ keeps the money on deposit, buys Treasury Bills or takes a flyer on CROX, the money remains in the system. No inflows, no outflows.Dr. Robert Parks of Pace wrote extensively about the subject 25-30 years ago.

Gloomy,Interesting point. Now that pretty much all securities are `book based` any government can confiscate assets with a simple computer key stroke.The point I was trying to make is that money doesn`t flow. Only the ownership and investment preference changes.

new thread.

Hello people, I am new to this forum and its been really great reading you people. I really wonder when would the dow crash to 9400, perhaps in September or October this year.