This mornings Futures http://t.co/aseUQwcUN7
12 minutes ago
Archive for November, 2004
-
Social Security Privatization as the Mother of All Con-Man Smoke-and-Mirrors Shell-Games
As widely reported by the press, a partial privatization of Social Security via the creation of private accounts is one of the top policy priorities of the Bush II administration.
But when you carefully look at the facts, it becomes clear that the proposed partial Social Security privatization is literally a Con Man Smoke-and-Mirrors Shell Game that – in the form it has been proposed – will not lead to any of the alleged benefits argued by its supporters. It is amazing the amount of misinformation that one reads about social security privatization; apologists argue that:- The current pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) Social Security system is bankrupt.
-
Systemic Risk Concerns: NY Fed vs. IMF. Is the Fund behind the Curve?
Tim Geithner – NY Fed President and formerly Under Secretary for International Affairs at the US Treasury and head of the IMF’s PDR department – has warned again this week about hedge funds and systemic risk. As his first speech as NY Fed Prez last March was on systemic risk, this is the third time since March that he has spoken on the subject (see also his October speech on systemic risk). Would that be a veiled suggestion that he, the NY Fed and the Fed Board are concerned about the issue? One may infer – from the frequency with which he has publicly spoken about the subject – that the issue of systemic risk may be on his mind. As he was at Treasury when LTCM blew up and as he is a leading expert – and crisis manager – of financial crises in emerging markets, his concerns are well justified.
-
Social Security Privatization as as the Mother of All Con-Man Smoke-and-Mirrors Shell-Games
As widely reported by the press, a partial privatization of Social Security via the creation of private accounts is one of the top policy priorities of the Bush II administration.
But when you carefully look at the facts, it becomes clear that the proposed partial Social Security privatization is literally a Con Man Smoke-and-Mirrors Shell Game that – in the form it has been proposed – will not lead to any of the alleged benefits argued by its supporters. It is amazing the amount of misinformation that one reads about social security privatization; apologists argue that:- The current pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) Social Security system is bankrupt.
-
Speculative Central Bank Reserve Diversification as the End Game Trigger for BWII?
The news today (see the FT story) that some central banks – India, Russia and “other petrodollar-rich Middle Eastern investors” – are starting to dump dollars to avoid the capital losses from further weakening of the U.S. dollar, may be the starting trigger – discussed in my paper with Brad – for the end of the so-called Bretton Woods Two (BWII)regime. As reported today by the Bloomberg columist Andy Mukherjee who cited my comments:
-
The Upcoming Twin Financial Train Wrecks of the U.S.
With the election now over, the most essential question facing the U.S. and global economy is what will be the fiscal and financial policies of the Bush II administration? The simple answer is that no one has a clue, not even the economists close to the admnistration as reported by the FT yesterday. The President has spoken of tax reform and partial social security privatization but the most crucial issue ahead will be how to fix the fiscal deficit mess of the last four years and how to reduce the unsustainable current account deficit. On those basic issues, the stated objectives of the administration imply twin – fiscal and external debt – financial train wrecks down the line: serious financial distress from unsustainable fiscal and current account deficits cannot be ruled out at this point. Clearly, reducing the budget deficit will not be a priority of Bush II.
