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Roubini Topic Archive: Europe
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Where’s Europe’s Madison?
Ask any European what happened in 1789, and invariably the answer will be “the French Revolution.” Many will even be able to name the day, July 14, when the Paris mob stormed the Bastille, the hated political prison of the soon-to-be headless Louis XVI – a public holiday in France to this day. But the [...]
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Europe’s Fire Sale: Begging Former Colonies for a Bailout
Buried amid reports about unrest in Egypt and Syria, Obama’s trip to Asia and the jobs versus deficits debate in Washington was the latest evidence of a disturbing trend: a piece by the New York Times’ Adam Nossiter on Portugal begging its former colony, Angola, for a bailout. With little fanfare, Angola, once a bountiful source for [...]
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The Sad Case of the Germans
The maiden Europa is engaged To the handsome genius ace Of freedom; lying down, arm in arm, They enjoy their first embrace. The marriage is valid, though no priest Has blessed it with holy waters. Long live the bridegroom and his bride And their future sons and daughters! – Heinrich Heine, Germany, [...]
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Dirty Ratko’s Longterm Legacy
Don’t be fooled by the tightly cropped shots of Serbian nationalists protesting the extradition of fugitive Gen. Ratko Mladic to the International War Crimes Tribunal in the Netherlands, where he will stand trial for crimes against humanity committed by his Bosnian Serb troops during the wars of Yugoslav succession. The Serb internet is filled with [...]
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Germany: Largesse Oblige?
For Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, it is the best of times, and it is the worst of times. German employment last month reached a new post-unification high, and business confidence, export revenues and many other measures of economic vitality are all positive—for now. (RGE sees this growth tempering, however, and already Q3 GDP growth shows a severe slowdown). Nonetheless, Merkel has capitalized on Germany’s position as the only major developed country that is truly growing, seeing off challenges to her leadership of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) this autumn and facing down anger from populists over the increasing cost of bailing out EZ PIIGS, much of it borne by German taxpayers.
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Geopolitical Risks: The Not-So-Pacific Rim
While any region of the size and complexity of the Pacific Rim is bound to see flare ups of rivalry and conflict, the coastal zone stretching roughly from the Malacca Straits to the Korean Peninsula has proved particularly busy in the second half of 2010. Three major drivers explain the current volatility: China’s rise in [...]
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The Sick Man Is Europe
Something other than leaves will fall in Europe this autumn. American attention, no doubt, will focus on Barack Obama’s date with an angry electorate this November. Yet across the pond, governments of the right, left and center in Europe appear ready to crumble, their positions eroded by a wave of austerity, high unemployment and government debt, plus a smattering of nasty corruption scandals.
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Beyond the Euro: German Foreign Policy Unbound
Editor’s Note: This is an excerpt from a larger RGE Analysis, “Uncertain Giant: Germany’s Changing Role in Europe” by Katharina Jungen and Michael Moran, May 24, 2010.
The events of the past several months in the eurozone have accelerated a dynamic that German policy makers—within Germany and among some of its allies—have tried for decades to smother. Since the end of the Cold War, which removed the existential threat of Soviet invasion from the political debate, Germany’s increasing share of EU GDP, coupled with increasing demands from the U.S. and others that Berlin shoulder more of a burden on the international stage, have encouraged a “coming out” process for German foreign policy.
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The Middle Makes Its Move
If anyone needed reminding that the American Century is over, Turkey and Brazil provided it by giving notice that they won’t stand aside as another nuclear nonproliferation crisis slides toward armed conflict. The standoff between the U.S. and its allies in Israel and Western Europe on one side, and Iran and its sympathizers around the world on the other, may or may not end in violence. But the surprise Turkish – Brazilian diplomatic coup this week makes it clear that nations once relegated to the second-tier of influence in the world refuse to watch from the sidelines in deference to American power this time around.
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Despite Appearances, Score One for Moscow in Kyrgyz Unrest
The conspiracy mongers should be having a field day. Just a few months before the expiration of a fragile agreement granting the U.S. military access to a strategically vital airbase in the Kyrgyz city of Manas – a base that represents the lynch pin of the Afghan war’s logistical chain – an opposition rising ousts the president and installs as caretaker the former Kyrgyz ambassador to the United States.
