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How Much Unity in the United Arab Emirates?
The quasi-default sparked by government-owned Dubai World in November–followed by somewhat tepid and only partial support from Abu Dhabi–has raised questions about the extent to which Dubai’s staggering, bubble-driven rise and fall over the past decade has upset the political foundations of the 38-year-old confederation known as the United Arab Emirates. Even as the UAE [...]
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Quick Thoughts on Germany, 20 Years Later
While the events that led to fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago is getting a lot of attention right now, the reactions of Germany’s neighbors and the period of limbo that lasted from October 1989 until German reunification a year later get less attention. Here’s a quick sketch of the hopes and fears [...]
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The Rising Sun also Sets
From Global Post: How do the Election Results Change US-Japan Relations? NEW YORK — As if Barack Obama doesn’t have enough foreign policy headaches, the United States now faces the prospect of trouble in Asia from a surprising quarter: Japan. For decades, since the post-war U.S. occupation of Japan ended in 1955, successive governments in [...]
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For Obama’s Diplomacy, the Going Gets Tough
In the ten months since George W. Bush’s departure from the scene, the Obama administration has portrayed the tasks confronting it as a series of challenges stemming primarily from a miserable presidential inheritance. From the economy to healthcare, from Russia to North Korea to Iran, words like rescue, reform, reset and reengagement are designed to drive home the point that the problem was created on someone else’s watch. This is particularly true in the geopolitical arena, one of the few places a president has wide leeway to act independently of Congress.
For most presidents, the expiration date for this rhetorical approach is, roughly, two years—or the period between inauguration and the first mid-term election. After that, “you break it, you buy it” generally holds true. But for Barack Obama, events have conspired to vastly shorten this honeymoon. Before the end of his first year in office, Obama appears likely to face “break-it, buy-it” decisions on the nuclear threats posed by North Korea and Iran, and the war in Afghanistan, pinning the success of these diplomatic and military endeavors squarely on the president’s shoulders.
Second Thoughts on ‘The Good War’
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Six Crises, 2009: A Half-Dozen Ways Geopolitics Could Upset Global Recovery
NEW YORK, July 27 – Restoring order and stability to the global economy has been job one for the President Obama, and everyone from Hugo Chavez to the House Financial Services Committee has an opinion on how he’s doing.
Yet even with the worst of the economic crisis behind us, geopolitical dangers lurk, some of which are of such a magnitude that the world’s economies could be sent tumbling back toward the abyss. Here is a quick ranking of six raging global crises which could set the world’s hopes for recovery back. Any one of them, if mishandled by world leaders, could prevent the return to stability that must precede global recovery.
First Risk: Iraq’s Relapse
At Stake: American influence, U.S. fiscal health; oil prices, Mideast stability