How to Read the Saudi-German Tank Deal
News from Der Spiegel, Germany’s leading news magazine, that the Saudis had agreed to purchase 200 Leopard II tanks set off a flurry of protest in Berlin. Angry opponents of conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government immediately pointed to the Saudi role in putting down Bahrain’s recent pro-democracy protests, which featured an invasion-by-invitation (an invitasion) by a Saudi light armored brigade over the causeway connecting the two kingdoms.
The New York Times, which put the story on its front page Thursday, quotes Jan Grebe, a researcher at a non-profit think tank, saying: “This would be a perfect tank to drive into Bahrain and crack down on any uprising,” and “It’s also a good tank to fight any demonstrations in Riyadh.”
Well, no. Actually, main battle tanks like the Leopard II actually destroy cities simply by driving through them — they are that heavy. They’re desperately vulnerable in urban environments and, except for psychological impact, a pretty poor tool against civilians even if you’re a rapacious dictatorship. Saudi Arabia has plenty of smaller armored vehicles – a mix of British and American armored cars and armored personnel carriers — which would be the first tool in the repressors tool kit. It’s worth noting the Saudis sent none of the 300-plus Abrams tanks it currently operates to Bahrain.
In fact, surprisingly absent from the coverage so far has been the far more interesting rationale for the purchase, which is in the final stages of approval in Berlin.
1) The Saudi army has legitimate concerns about the much larger armed forces of its Gulf rival, Iran. With the United States rapidly drawing down from Iraq, what’s a Wahhabi to do? The last time Saudi Arabia made a major purchase of tanks was 1990, when it paid $3.1 billion for 315 M1A2 Abrams built by General Dynamics in Lima, Ohio. It was viewed at the time as a “thank you” for saving them from Saddam, but 1990 was a long time ago, and the Saudi desert is very, very hard on mechanized vehicles.
2) The Saudis are furious with the United States for throwing Mubarak under the bus last winter, worried that the 11th hour conversion Obama made could easily be repeated if things got rough in Jeddah or Riyadh. The deal, hardly meant to shore up the Kingdom’s repressive capabilities, instead sends a sharp signal to America that a major arms customer has other options. Could a major purchase of Eurofighters be next?
The coverage from other outlets also contains some elements worth noting. Iran’s IRNA news agency, ever eager to make the Saudis look evil, carried complaints from Bahraini rights activists about the deal. The Israeli press, which once upon a time would have screamed bloody murder about such a deal, shrugged it off. Israel increasingly views Saudi Arabia as the lynchpin holding together what remains of the old order in the Middle East that had allowed it to take its sweet time with peace talks. Since news of the deal was first carried by Israeli news sites on July 3, no angry op-eds, no analysis of the Saudi-Israeli balance of power. There is this piece, however, about a joint deal with Germany to develop a new missile for the Eurofighter.
My favorite, though, is from the Motley Fool: Prussian Peaceniks Promote General Dynamics: Sometimes it takes a fool to get to the point.
6 Responses to “How to Read the Saudi-German Tank Deal”
reziemba • July 7th, 2011 at 5:18 pm
Nice piece. are the chinese making any equipment that the Saudis would want to buy? that would be a further step. Of course, this purchase doesn't change the fact that the Saudis have a lot more US military equipment (and associated personnel) coming to them in the next few years due to last years arms deal.
lastdaysofrome • July 8th, 2011 at 1:43 am
My guess – the Saudis will continue to be a great customer for many of the things the US alone can produce – the premier battlefield munitions, air-to-surface weaponry, anti-missile systems. But diversification makes sense in acquiring the patrol vessels and submarines they'll inevitably need to counter Iranian purchases (ironically, some from Germany), tanks, anti-aircraft systems, etc. The Swiss make battlefield anti-aircraft systems that are as good as any the US Congress would allow sold to a foreign power (other than Israel), and the Swedes and many others produce armor, artillery and even fighter aircraft that easily outclass the Iranian varieties currently fielded. So, yes, I'm totally expecting this.
News – 2011.07.11 | SUSRIS • July 11th, 2011 at 4:35 pm
[...] the Saudis had agreed to purchase 200 Leopard II tanks set off a flurry of protest in Berlin. Angry opponents of conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government immediately pointed to the S…,” Economonitor [...]
News – 2011.07.11 | SBRIS • July 11th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
[...] the Saudis had agreed to purchase 200 Leopard II tanks set off a flurry of protest in Berlin. Angry opponents of conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government immediately pointed to the S…,” Economonitor [...]
News – Saudi Arabia – 2011-07-11 | ArabiaLink • July 11th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
[...] the Saudis had agreed to purchase 200 Leopard II tanks set off a flurry of protest in Berlin. Angry opponents of conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government immediately pointed to the S…,” Economonitor [...]
News – 2011.07.11 | SaudiGrok • July 11th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
[...] the Saudis had agreed to purchase 200 Leopard II tanks set off a flurry of protest in Berlin. Angry opponents of conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government immediately pointed to the S…,” Economonitor [...]
