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There Will Be Blood: The Vampire Squid of Wall Street Is Hemorrhaging

Author: L. Randall Wray  ·   ·   › Share This Print

Government Sachs posted its second quarterly loss since it went public in 1999. No doubt that has sent Washington scrambling to try to plug the leak. (Wouldn’t it be fun to listen in on Timothy Geithner’s incoming phone calls from 200 West Street, NYC, today?)

Lloyd “doing God’s work” Blankfein blamed the “uncertain macroeconomic and market conditions”—conditions created, of course, by Wall Street. And since Wall Street refuses to let Washington do anything to improve those conditions, expect much more hemorrhaging among Wall Street’s finest.

The big banks are toast, as I’ve been saying for quite some time. There is no plausible path to real profits with the economy tanking. Only jobs—millions and millions of them, as well as comprehensive debt relief will stop that.

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago:

“US and European banks probably are already insolvent. When Greece defaults and the crisis spreads to the periphery that will become more obvious. The smaller US banks are in trouble because of the economic crisis. However, the biggest banks that caused the crisis are still reeling from their mistakes during the run-up to the crisis. They were already insolvent when the GFC hit, and are still insolvent. Policy makers have pursued an “extend and pretend” approach to hide the insolvencies, however, the sorry state of these banks will be exposed when the next crisis begins to spread. It is looking increasingly likely that the opening salvo will come from Europe, although it is certainly possible that it could come … The economy is tanking. Real estate prices are not recovering, indeed, they continue to fall on trend. Few jobs are being created. Defaults and delinquencies are not improving. GDP growth is falling. Household debt as a percent of GDP is only down from 100% to 90%. While declining debt ratios are good, it is still too much to service. Consumer debt fell from $12.5 trillion in 2008 to $11.4 trillion now. Total US debt is about five times GDP and while household borrowing has gone negative, debt loads remain high. Financial institutions are still heavily indebted—mostly to one another. At the level of the economy as a whole, it is still a massive Ponzi scheme—that will collapse sooner or later… No real economic recovery can begin without job growth in the neighborhood of 300,000 new jobs per month and no one is predicting that for years to come.
Isn’t it strange that Wall Street has managed to remain largely unaffected? Finance is an intermediate good. It is like the tire that goes on a new Ford automobile. Auto sales are collapsing but somehow tire sales to auto manufacturers are doing just fine? Does that make sense? Banks are making no loans, yet, they remain profitable? Not only are the financial institutions NOT doing any of the traditional commercial banking business—lending—they aren’t doing much of the investment banking business either (remember that the last two remaining investment banks were handed bank charters so that they could scoop up insured deposits as a cheap way to finance their business). How many IPOs have been floated? Corporate debt issues? Not much happening in those areas. Trading? [Not much there, either].”

In sum, the big banks aren’t doing much lending while investment banking business is tanking. Goldman reported that investment banking revenues were down 46% from the previous quarter. Its return on equity this year has been barely 3%–one-tenth of what it reported 5 years ago. JPMorgan Chase also reported falling revenues and while some of the other biggest banks reported profits they were due to “one time accounting gains”—in other words, book cooking.

They’ve cooked the books for so long now, they are completely burnt. The main way they’ve generated fake profits was by reducing loan loss reserves. There’s nothing left in the kitty to move to the profits column. Finally, the commodities and equities bubbles are over—at best they might hold steady before they finally collapse.

Goldman’s only hope is to find willing suckers who want to feed the vampire squid. But maybe the era of screwing customers is over. It has been Goldman’s specialty since 1999. Indeed, the date is significant—and not only for the title of the great Prince song. By going public in that year, Goldman’s entire culture was changed.

As a partnership it couldn’t share directly in the pump-and-dump dot.com speculative bubble. It could not sell its own shares. So it went public to join the biggest stock bubble the US had ever seen. And by rewarding top management for pumping up share prices, it changed the incentive structure from one in which developing relations with customers made sense as a winning business strategy to one in which “maximizing share-holder value” was the main raison d’être.

Interests were then perfectly aligned by including stock options in CEO bonuses. “Pump-and-dump” short-termism took over corporate culture at the top investment banks. It was then a very short step to move away from forming relations with customers to the same sort of short-term “you’ll be gone, I’ll be gone, so what the hell let’s just screw everybody and party like its 1999” treatment of customers. And off we were into partnerships with John Paulson to create synthetic toxic waste sold to Goldman’s customers and profiting doubly by betting on their failure.

To be sure this was not the first time the investment banks had adopted such a strategy. They tried it out back 70 years earlier, in 1929, creating investment trust subsidiaries that manufactured essentially fake stocks in pools of equity of worthless subsidiaries. They even sold stocks in yet-to-be-thought-of schemes. You can think of all this as the 1929 version of toxic waste synthetic derivatives. Then pumped-and-dumped them. And banks like Goldman even bought some of the pools because it was such a booming good business. (For a good history of all this, read JK Galbraith’s “The Great Crash”, which devotes a whole chapter to the Vampire Squid. Indeed, behind every big financial crisis you find the Squid. Its motto should read: “Crises-R-Us”.)

As my colleague Bill Black says, the more fraudulent the scam the more appealing it is precisely because with fraud the profits are a “sure thing”. Of course they are fake—but until the curtain is lifted the banksters make out like gangsters.

We know how all that turned out in October 1929—both the banks and the customers watched as equity prices plummeted, finally falling by some 85%. While this was not the only cause of the Great Depression, it certainly played a significant role.

President Roosevelt came in with the right set of priorities: first you shut down the banks and fire the banksters, then you can reform the financial system. President Obama came in, accepted Goldman’s choice to run the Treasury, and then set out to ensure that Wall Street would be isolated from any damage its frauds had wrought. Reform? Forget it. Impossible with the banksters running the show. Recovery? Impossible with banksters running the government.

Has anyone noticed it is October? It will be interesting to see what things look like come Halloween. Will the big bank frauds make it through the month? Or will they be hemorrhaging like it is Friday the 13th?

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I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz answer back as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thank you

buy wall art • December 14th, 2011 at 11:45 am

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wordpress designer • December 14th, 2011 at 11:58 am

It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d without a doubt donate to this brilliant blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to fresh updates and will share this website with my Facebook group. Chat soon!

finance • December 14th, 2011 at 2:43 pm

I was curious if you ever thought of changing the page layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

warmond • December 14th, 2011 at 3:02 pm

Awesome blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you recommend starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I’m totally overwhelmed .. Any tips? Appreciate it!

web development surrey • December 14th, 2011 at 3:52 pm

Hi there! Quick question that’s completely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My weblog looks weird when viewing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any recommendations, please share. Appreciate it!

iceomatic • December 14th, 2011 at 5:13 pm

Howdy! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading your articles. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same topics? Thank you so much!

design interiors • December 14th, 2011 at 5:23 pm

My developer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on a variety of websites for about a year and am worried about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

price of free range eggs • December 14th, 2011 at 7:35 pm

Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My website discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you happen to be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Awesome blog by the way!

Braino • May 18th, 2012 at 2:16 am

Very good blog you have here but I was wanting to know if you knew of any forums that cover the same topics discussed here? I'd really like to be a part of community where I can get feed-back from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Thank you!

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Edward Hugh Don't Shoot the Messenger

Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows. Edward is based in Barcelona, and is currently engaged in research on aging, longevity, fertility and migration, and the impact of all of these on economic growth.

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