EconoMonitor

Great Leap Forward

Are the Big Banks Insolvent?

I always get pushback whenever I say that the biggest half dozen banks are insolvent. I imagine most of that comes from bank employees hired for such purposes. But is it really plausible that they are effectively bankrupt? After all, Timothy Geithner has certified them A-OK after conducting stress tests. And they continue to pay their top management and traders gazillions in bonuses, even as they reduce loan loss reserves. And they repaid Uncle Sam much of the funds that had been used to bail them out when the Global Financial Crisis hit. They’ve all moved on—the GFC is just a distant memory on Wall Street.

True, they’ve suffered a few teeny-weeny setbacks. They’ve had to take some brief time-outs from stealing homes (err, foreclosing homes), but they are back in business, throwing homeowners out onto the streets at a prodigious clip. And they’ve been sued for fraud by the state Attorneys General of all 50 states. But they’ve taken that in stride, too, and with several of the states abandoning ship it looks like that lawsuit will go nowhere. Occasionally they’ve had to pay fines and restitution, and they lose some foreclosure cases. And they’ve had to lay-off some workers, like most US firms. But they are reporting (mostly) decent profits and the financial sector is back to raking in 40% of all corporate profits. Indeed, the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, and real estate) is just about the only part of the US economy that hasn’t tanked. Besides, surely Treasury Secretary Geithner and Chairman Bernanke would never leave an insolvent institution open.

We know from the Saving&Loan crisis of the 1980s that the costs of eventual resolution explode when you leave fraudster banks open. Just like Watergate, it is the cover-up that ramps up the illegal activity. Heck, if you keep an insolvent bank open and let the same crooks continue to run it, they have every incentive to rob the place blind. They’d pay themselves huge bonuses, slash loan loss reserves, burn documents, and move as much cash to offshore havens as they could. Because their institution is already bankrupt. All they have to do is to keep it open and shred evidence until the statute of limitations runs out—then move to the Bahamas or Washington, both safe harbors for financial fraudsters.

That’s why no Fed or Treasury official would leave an insolvent bank open–obviously, you must fire all the top management and close the institutions.

And any officials who had been responsible for regulating and supervising these institutions as they became insolvent would certainly have an interest in overlooking the cover-up.

So, you’d have a thorough house cleaning at the regulatory agencies, firing all officials who had turned a blind eye to the practices that led to the GFC.

Those are the lessons we learned from the 1980s crisis, so surely that is what we did in the aftermath of 2008. It would be insane to leave insolvent institutions open, under the command of crooks and overseen by tainted public officials.

Whoops.

What happened at the biggest institutions? Kept open, with frauds bailed-out? Check. Retained top management and traders? Check. Left top regulators and banking supervisors in place? Check (well, many got promoted and/or hired away by the banks they supposedly oversaw). Prosecuted criminals? No way! Letting statute of limitations run out on fraudsters? You betcha!

And let’s try to remember exactly who was in charge of overseeing Wall Street’s institutions—perhaps the head of the NYFed? Oh, could that have been someone named Timothy Geithner? And just where is he now? Gee, do you think it might be better if the biggest banks pass the stress tests?

OK, no conspiracy theories here. Let’s look at the reasons to doubt that the big six are solvent.

1.The economy is tanking. Real estate prices are not recovering, indeed, they continue to fall on trend. No jobs are being created. Defaults and delinquencies are not improving. GDP growth is falling.

Isn’t it strange that Wall Street has managed to remain largely unaffected? Finance is an intermediate good. It is like the tire that goes on a new Ford automobile. Auto sales are collapsing but somehow tire sales to auto manufacturers are doing just fine? Does that make sense? Banks are making no loans, yet, they remain profitable?

2.Not only are the financial institutions NOT doing any of the traditional commercial banking business—lending—they aren’t doing much of the investment banking business either (remember that the last two remaining investment banks were handed bank charters so that they could scoop up insured deposits as a cheap way to finance their business). How many IPOs have been floated? Corporate debt? Trading? Well, one of the two investment banks that survived, Morgan Stanley (the sixth largest bank—barely squeaking into my “dirty half dozen” biggest banks), just released a pretty poor trading outlook—blamed on “high costs, historically low interest rates and market volatility that has pushed clients to the sidelines”. (Reuters Global Wealth Management Summit News).

3.Europe is toast. US bank exposure to Euroland is huge. But US banks are doing just fine, thank you? Hello?

4.Commodities are tanking. Equities markets are at best horizontal. Other than making profits by cooking their books, these were areas open to banks to make profits. And, yes, both commodities and equities had been doing quite well—climbing back up from the depths of the crisis. This should be put in perspective, however, because at best they only recouped losses. Still, those bubbles are now history. Losses are going to pile up. Yes, I know financial institutions hedge their long positions in commodities with some shorts—but who do you short with? Does anyone remember AIG—the insurer of first and last resort? Hedges are only as good as counter-parties, and counter-parties are no better than you are when markets collapse. In a crisis, correlations reach 100%.

5.Hedge funds have not done particularly well over the past couple of years. And yet banks have? Even though all they are doing is trading (plus cooking books and reducing loan loss reserves), the banks are far more successful than hedge fund managers at picking winners? Does that make a lot of sense?

6.And, as mentioned above, they’ve got all these lawsuits—which requires hiring lawyers, paying fees and fines, and employing Burger King kids to falsify documents. The document shredding services alone must be crimping net returns.

Ok, is there any evidence that might cause one to question bank solvency? Real hard stuff?

There is a very good Reuters special report out October 2. Here is the link: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/10/Haircut.pdf
And here is a quick summary of some of the data reported:

1.Household debt as a percent of GDP is only down from 100% to 90%. While declining debt ratios are good, it is still too much to service. Consumer debt fell from $12.5 trillion in 2008 to $11.4 trillion now. See the figures included by clicking here: ppb_Figs_B

Figure 1 shows that total US debt is about five times GDP and Figure 2 provides debt ratios by sector. Financial institutions are still heavily indebted—mostly to one another. At the level of the economy as a whole, it is still a massive Ponzi scheme—that will collapse. Total US debt loads are much higher than the loads across most of Euroland—we make Greece or Italy look like paragons of thrift. Especially if you take government debt out of the equation (which you should do when talking about the US—since we’ve got a sovereign government that issues its own currency), the Europeans are debt pikers.

2.Most of the household debt is linked to real estate—almost three-quarters. 10.9 million homeowners, or 22%, are underwater on their mortgages. 1.6 million are delinquent or in foreclosure processes. Banks still have $700 billion in second lien debt (such as home equity loans). As these are “sloppy seconds”, much of this stuff is worthless. American consumers account for nearly half of the global $9 trillion of securitized loans (ie, mortgage backed securities and so on). There is another $4.1 trillion in mortgage debt sold by Fannie and Freddie. The point is that there is still a phenomenal amount of debt linked to a declining US real estate market, and much of that is either directly held by US financial institutions, or will come back to bite them because of extensive layering of debt across the global financial system. And speaking of these linkages, US banks will have to refinance over $300 billion of maturing debt this year.

3.As Robert Reich correctly argued in a piece, although direct lending by US banks to heavily indebted sovereign European governments is not high, they have exposure of almost $3 trillion through links to European banks. If, say, Greece defaults, US banks get hurt to the extent that European banks default on their debts. US money market mutual funds are also heavily invested in Euroland—about half of their assets are in short-term European bank IOUs.

Note that MMMFs are essentially uninsured deposits that pretend to be as safe as FDIC-insured deposits—and there are $3 trillion worth of them (vs about $6 trillion of insured deposits). When the GFC hit there was a run out of them that threatened to “break the buck”; they were saved by extension of the US government guarantee. That is now illegal by Dodd-Frank (one of the few gutsy things Congress managed to do—essentially inserting a nuclear bomb into the legislation to ensure that the next GFC will blow Wall Street to smithereens). You might say “so what”—let them fail. But they lend to US banks—who need to roll-over short-term paper bought by the MMMFs. Bank finance will dry up in a run. That is the problem with layering. This is not a 3 standard deviation event—it is a high probability event that ought to be taken into account when “stress-testing” banks. Can anyone say “an accident waiting to happen”?

If the financial system survives the next week or two, I’ll provide more evidence that the end is near. Meanwhile, watch those bank stocks!

513 Responses to “Are the Big Banks Insolvent?”

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burkbraunOctober 5th, 2011 at 8:37 pm

Aren't the banks getting reserves fed to them by the Fed, which the Fed then pays interest on, for free? And aren't they also buying whatever treasuries are available, making a slightly higher spread that way. This is how I see the banks clawing their way back to solvency, very slowly- on the back of the Fed's money creation capacity. The rich get richer, as usual.

LRWrayOctober 5th, 2011 at 11:53 pm

Banks get loans as Fed buys treasuries from them–lowering their earnings. That is what QE was all about. Yes, Fed can buy toxic waste trash from them, and overpay. That gives them low earning (a few basis points) assets but they get to unload losers. But the Fed is limited in its charity work–because it must answer to Congress (later) when it absorbs huge losses.

The rich do get richer, but not out of that. The Real Housewives of Wall Street got cheap loans to buy (presumably) fairly good assets. That's nice work if you can get it.

You will not get rich on holding bank reserves at 25 basis points! And even Treasuries at 200 basis points will not cover bank costs.

You must look elsewhere to explain Wall St profits.

LRWrayOctober 5th, 2011 at 11:54 pm

Sorry, this: Banks get loans as Fed buys treasuries from them
should read: Banks get RESERVES as Fed buys treasuries from them

John ZelnickerOctober 6th, 2011 at 1:22 pm

Dr. Wray — I notice on your employment recovery chart that with each subsequent recovery it has taken longer for employment to get back to the zero line (or its maximum). This is particularly noticeable since the 1981-82 recession. This seems to fit with the movement of national income from wages to profits and the growing inequality of income in the US. Have you found this to be a valid correlation?
We have got to change the conversation from debt and deficit to how we really get people back to work. The commissioners in the county next to mine have refused to approve a $75,000 grant for encouraging kids to walk to school because the federal government "can't afford to take on more debt". In addition to this misconception, since the money comes through the state and has already been paid out by the USG, it will just go to another community. It seems their biggest problem is that much of the money would help pay the salaries of three people who would help run the program. Getting people to understand how our monetary system works is getting more critically important by the day.

burkbraunOctober 6th, 2011 at 4:39 pm

But the banks are holding 2 trillion of reserves. So even at .25%, that is .. about 5 billion annual income free and clear, spread over all the banks. Perhaps it is beer money, but still helpful.

burkbraunOctober 6th, 2011 at 4:49 pm

Anyhow, your argument is not that the banks are *actually* profitable, only that they are awarding bonuses as usual, while cutting jobs and hiding their balance sheets. Something is keeping them afloat, perhaps only misplaced investor confidence.

Also, on QE- wasn't that buying bonds on the open market, lowering long rates? The money ended up not as loans, but as reserves/deposits in banks, such as the newly conjured Goldman bank. True, this lowered the return the banks otherwise got on such bonds, if they sold them on that open market. But why would they? Why exchange a higher earning asset for a lower earning one? Perhaps most of the purchased bonds were newly issued, rather than pulled out of the banks. I do not understand the rules of bank reserves, though- what would keep them from using those reserves to buy bonds. They surely are not using the reserves for lending.

John ZelnickerOctober 6th, 2011 at 7:17 pm

burkbraun — As I understand the banks can and do indeed use those reserves to buy bonds. This is why by targeting the amount of bonds it will buy, the Fed has very little effect. To hit a target interest rate, the Fed must be willing to defend that rate by offering to buy any amount of bonds at that rate. Cullen Roche has spoken of this several times at http://www.pragcap.com.

deb-zOctober 7th, 2011 at 7:10 am

The Federal Reserve Bank is a private bank, not owned by this country. We borrow money and pay back interest. Everyone (banks) that have stock in the Federal Reserve are guaranteed, after expenses, to get 6% profit yearly! It is all a crock and the taxpayers are the jokes in this story we do not own the fed…as all know the fed owns the taxpayers!

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Economics Considered — Yes, it is the third chart in Dr. Wray's link above: ppb_Figs_B. It is titled "Change in employment…"

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