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Is the Commodities Bubble a Case of Index Speculation by Money Managers?

In two previous blogs I have argued that we are nearing the end of the greatest speculative bubble of all time. And right on cue, commodities markets have started to collapse. To be sure, they will not collapse all at once. Smart money is pulling out, and dumb money will come back in to buy “cheap” commodities. The dumb money will get screwed. The general trend will be down from here on out—as I argued, current prices are two to four standard deviations away from trend. Just returning to trend is going to wipe out all the long positions. This will add to financial headwinds that are circling the globe—from sovereign debtor defaults in Euroland (there is growing recognition of TINA—there is no alternative to Greek default, which will unleash a run out of periphery debt and make default very appealing to others), US bank insolvencies (spurred on by winning lawsuits for all the fraud they perpetrated), and collapsing economies everywhere. As Nouriel Roubini has argued the double dip is a certainty.

Tomorrow I will post up a blog on all that. But today I wanted to finish what has turned into a three part series devoted to the biggest speculative bubble in human history—commodities. The bubble is not due to “supply and demand” nor even to the usual run of the mill speculation. It is due to what Mike Masters called “index speculation” by what Hyman Minsky called “money managers”—pension funds and the like that have adopted a “buy and hold” strategy. Usually, speculators bet that prices will rise and speculators bet that they will fall. You can get a balance. But when it comes to the index speculator, she is making a one-way bet on price appreciation—devoting say 5% of the portfolio to an index that includes the 25 or more top commodities. If the flow of managed money into commodities markets is large relative to the size of the markets, prices will rise—validating the bet and encouraging even more bets on price appreciation. And that, folks, is what has driven this bubble. I wrote about it in 2008, and when pensions withdrew a bit of their funds we got a crash. But it was short-lived as they went right back in—and so we are now living in boom 2.0.

I received criticisms on the initial blog so I posted excerpts from my own piece as well as some other things. And I also got a critique from my fellow analyst here at Economonitor, Shelley Goldberg: http://www.economonitor.com/analysts/2011/09/26/response-to-randy-wrays-biggest-commodity-bubble-of-all-time/

I decided to turn to Mike Masters, the undisputed authority on index speculation for some answers to her main points. Herewith are the points she made and Mike’s responses.

Shelley Goldberg:

1)  Many commodities, whose prices not only have risen over the decades but have shown large swings in volatility, are not exchange-traded. In the case of many fruits and vegetables, financial speculation was not the cause of high prices. Mediterranean countries saw rapid escalation in the price of tomatoes in the last few years, while Latin American nations experienced a tripling of bean prices within months. No tomato or chili bean futures contracts exist to date. On numerous occasions, these and other commodity prices rose faster than those of exchange traded commodities due to such factors as low yields, poor crop numbers and bad harvests as well as hording by governments in times of scarcity or domestic inflation. Today, 17 different rare earth metals are the focus and are largely not exchange traded; yet their prices continue to surge higher as a result of trade restrictions, not financial speculation.

2) Your comment, (as related to pension funds buying commodities through futures contracts)

…”If prices rise, you always win on the roll (sell for more than you paid)”…

… is incorrect. One only profits from this method of futures trading when the term structure (forward curve) is in backwardation, meaning, today’s prices are higher than futures prices.  In fact many commodity term structures are in contango (positively sloping yield curve) which makes this roll trade a losing proposition i.e. you sell for less than what you paid. As such, one can lose money in futures trading even when spot prices are rising.

3) Finally, the real bubbles we have experienced in the last decade – housing and tech stocks – were highly country and region specific. Commodities, on the other hand, are global in nature, and consumed by everyone.  And the size of “everyone”, in numbers, has increased, to the tune of three billion new customers over the last three decades as China and India moved to market economies. That means more industrialization, infrastructure, housing, roads, cars and mouths to feed in a world limited by such inputs as land, water, fossil fuels and ore grades. In such a scenario, higher prices are inevitable.

And here are the responses by Mike Masters:

Let’s try your responder’s point number one.  First of all, no one is saying speculation is the source for ALL the price rises in commodities.  With any “bullish” story (such as a shortage, or long term fundamental underinvestment in an area) there can be (and often are) legitimate reasons why the price of a commodity has (or is about to) increase.  That has always been the case.  Speculators, sensing opportunity, amplify those moves, or they can potentially create their own moves.  There were good reasons why tech stocks should have increased (shortage of bandwidth, new platform technology called the internet as examples), and there were also good reasons why housing stocks increased (new financial “innovation” that allowed those with lower credit and incomes to own houses, relative underinvestment in housing during the 90′s as examples).  Interestingly, in both cases those booms had global tentacles; you will remember the tech stocks around the world were bid up during the tech bubble and doubtless also remember the increase in housing markets in Spain and Ireland, other parts of Europe, and also China, Australia, and Brazil and South America.  In fact, most speculative booms have logical “fundamental” rationales.  Clearly, it’s much easier to attract speculative capital with a “good story”.  But the key point here is that even in these cases, speculative capital can and does greatly amplify price movement.  The more new capital, the greater the likely price movement.  This is because, while there is a buyer and seller for every transaction (whether in derivatives-where new contracts are created-or any other market with an intermediate term fixed supply-such as shares or debt-or in spot commodities-with very inelastic price curves), markets simply allocate via price.   So if new speculative capital comes into any market, the price MUST move until the supply (other side of the transaction) is found.  Indeed,  the market doesn’t care where the money comes from, it simply moves in price until it incents the other side of the trade to transact.  While this is a simple concept, it’s incredulous to me how many get confused by this basic process.  Money moves market prices, pure and simple, all the time.  So if billions and billions of dollars (or any other currency) come into ANY market (for instance commodities markets), it acts to move the market price in order match up willing sellers with the aforementioned new capital (buyers).  Otherwise,  those transactions will not happen (it takes a buyer and a seller to transact).  So while there is always a  buyer for every seller and visa versa by definition for any transaction to occur, there isn’t an infinite amount of buyers and sellers at a given price-thus the market’s reason d’etre of allocating via price.  Speculative capital moves market prices.  A lot of speculative capital moves market prices a lot.  So given commodities general inelasticity’s, this matters because during a speculative amplified move in food and energy prices, people suffer (or die).  That is what makes a speculative bubble so dangerous in commodities.  People may not be able to wait for prices to correct as increased production quotas can take a long time to occur (one may remember Keynes’ comments here about the “long run”) and supply eventually comes up to meet the additional speculative demand.  In fact, this whole process is instructive in understanding how a speculative boom and bust process actually occurs.

On the second point in (#1), that being the idea that because one market without a listed futures market also moved up in price it invalidates the argument above: Several issues here, number one the substitution principle in economics (I won’t go into but one can look it up).  Number 2, if input costs, like fertilizer (derived from nat. gas -which has a listed futures market) and tractor fuel (derived from crude oil) go up in price, suppliers of those goods must increase prices to sell their goods or switch to selling other products (either of which creates higher prices).  So what happens in commodities futures markets doesn’t stay in those futures markets (especially because of arbitrage links between futures and spot markets which I won’t go into now either) unlike the situation in Vegas.  Finally, what the responder may not know is that Wall street, always sensing opportunity, has created LOTS of OTC products for many commodities (like iron ore and rare earth metals for instance) that don’t have listed futures contracts.  So DON’T underestimate the direct impact of speculative capital in those markets either;  after all Wall Street swap dealers aren’t idiots.  If they sense opportunity in new product areas, they move fast.  This is especially true given the ISDA process since the passage of the CFMA.

On your responder’s point number 2, she is correct.  The investor only makes money rolling contracts when the curve is in backwardation.  When the curve is in contango, the sponsor (the swap dealer hedging the commodity index swap) simply does the cash and carry and extracts money from the investor (that is why Wall Street has been buying physical storage around the world, it allows them to do the cash and carry and extract storage yield from ignorant pension funds and other institutional investors) and the investor loses.  To see this graphically in a retail product like an ETF, punch up a chart of the NYSE listed ETF” USO” from 2006 and a chart of the benchmark crude contract WTI (which it is supposed to directly track). The difference in price today (50+ bucks versus 2006) is the cumulative storage yield pocketed by Wall Street from ignorant retail investors.

On 3. See my point in the 1st paragraph.  However, higher prices are never “inevitable”.  People have told me that during every boom I can remember; at the time it may feel that way, but things have a way of changing over time. Market’s after all, are just human creations, and not perfect (just like humans).  In fact, we only use markets because collectively we have decided to use them!  If the reader thinks deeply about that situation he or she will likely understand my point.

****************************************************************************

And, so dear reader, what do you think? If pension funds that have money under management equal to about three fourths of US GDP pour money into what are relatively small markets, do you think that might push up prices? And do you think they ought to be allowed to push up prices of food, gasoline, and other critical consumption goods, causing distress when the prices rise and havoc when the prices collapse? We are not talking about equity prices here that might only have an indirect effect on people’s lives. We are talking about food and energy prices that literally can mean the difference between life and death.

Pension funds are not “free market” funds. They are protected by a government guarantee that is backed by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (now bankrupt on any decent accounting—meaning Uncle Sam will bail them out). And they are given tax advantages. In other words, Uncle Sam subsidizes and guarantees them. If, like me, you think that our government should not allow pension funds to gamble in our commodities using Uncle Sam’s dime, call your representative now.

953 Responses to “Is the Commodities Bubble a Case of Index Speculation by Money Managers?”

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JamesSeptember 27th, 2011 at 8:20 pm

As a commodity trader/investor it is obvious that we are in and investment driven bubble and the fact that this question is still open for debate prooves how clueless most financial market particapants are when it comes to commodities. However the CFTC data does not demonstrate that there has been meaningful allocation to commodities post the 2008 withdrawal, which suggests that a similar if somewhat different dynamic has driven recent increases in commodity prices. Also to Ms Goldberg's point about fundamental tightness is easily refuted by the fact that many "tradeable" commodities trade at massive premiums to the historical relationship between supply and demand and price. Additionally the sharp contangoes in the front of the curves are further evidence of the distorting effect of bullish asset allocation. With prices held above the fundamental market clearing price for extended periods of time, there is excess supply which has to be stored. As demand for storage has increased more than willing supply of storage, the expected return to storing commodities has had to increase to induce more storage. This has been accomplished by increasing contango in the front of the curve.

shiv139September 28th, 2011 at 7:50 am

I agree that speculative capital drives prices higher than they ought to be; ultimately speculators bring tomorrow prices, today. However, a look at oil, at $83.51 on WTI and $105 on Brent, it is far from a bubble. Personally I believe $65 to $70 are reasonable estimates of where oil prices should be because this is about what it costs to extract oil from new marginal cost sources such as ultra-deepwater or oil sand & shale sources. And while oil as a commodity carries risks, oil producers don't because major E&P companies are not unreasonably valued (in fact I'd call them cheap) considering $70 as a long term oil price.
An oil price range of $40 to $150 is very normal. The fear of a bubble would come with prices staying at or over $150 for a considerable period of time, accompanied by significant spikes above. See more http://blog.maxkapital.com/2011/05/real-value-of-… http://blog.maxkapital.com/2009/12/sector-watch-e…

shiv139September 28th, 2011 at 7:50 am

I suspect the bubbles are in treasuries and gold (which is basically like a perpetual deep discounted zero coupon bond). Both will deflate together, but I suspect they will deflate slowly over a long period of time; real interest rates will rise on deflation or very low inflation; they will also rise once the deleveraging of nations is in a sufficiently advanced stage for the threat of inflation from the increased money supply to be addressed through rising real interest rates. I'd guess we are looking at 5 to 6 years at least; but gold & treasuries have valuation problems even today since yields price in near 0% real rates. So the prognosis for gold and treasuries is not good. See more at http://blog.maxkapital.com/2011/09/golds-message-…

HNLIMSeptember 28th, 2011 at 9:01 am

One Idea: the infomercial (contrarian) indicator, the saturation of gold infomercials is entirely too high to think that we are in anything but a bubble.

shiv139September 28th, 2011 at 5:20 pm

What most oil costs is not relevant for the price. You cant have separate prices for low and high cost producers; price is at equilibrium when marginal cost equals marginal revenue. The marginal cost of producing from new sources required to meet the incremental (over and above the present cheaper sources) BBL demanded by consumers will be the the price.
The bitumen from tar sands costs closer to $45 for the low cost relatively small reserviors; and that is not counting the environmental cost and the higher cost of refining. These costs get higher and higher as the reservior depletes. Generally we can expect to recover 75% of the reservoir; but after initial recovery of say the first 10%, the costs to recover the next 10% rises.

shiv139September 28th, 2011 at 5:20 pm

The cost of production for bitumen from the more challenging sands where most of the reserves are expected to be found, is closer to $70; and this too will rise as the reservoir depletes.
Global demand is in excess of all conventional land sources, plus shallow water sources, plus mid water sources, plus deep water sources. Incremental barrels are required from non conventional sources and from ultra deepwater to meet demand and that costs $65 to $70 to produce. Globally significant production from oil stands will cost about the same as ultra deepwater.
And if that last bbl demanded by markets costs $65 to $70 to produce, that will be the price for all units (not just the incremental units). The people who own low marginal cost sources will make a fortune, but a large chunk of that has to be re-invested in acquiring new sources of future production higher up the marginal cost curve.

steve from virginiaSeptember 30th, 2011 at 10:09 pm

Interesting until the point where the mention of 'Mike Masters' and 'Index Speculation'. Time out.

Some commodities are more speculative than others. Buy (speculative) gold and you will sell to another speculator (or the exchange bank). Buy crude oil and at the end of the day you must sell to a user who must make a profit/generate cash flow from the use of that fuel.

If the fuel user cannot earn with the fuel use, the price is too high. The user goes out of business or stops using fuel (usually the same thing). The economic return on fuel use sets the price of fuel. Both the price of fuel — and the value of dollars used to buy fuel — are set every day by millions of motorists around the world every single day.

There is no monetary policy, the Fed and other central banks are irrelevant: money price is set by motorists. So is the money value of fuel set by the same motorists, not by index traders or Mike Masters … or Ben Bernanke (even though he tried).

Specs can ramp the price of crude all they like until it becomes too pricey for the end user and the price declines because of demand destruction.

A better argument is deflation where crude cost is always too high even as crude prices decline, because output per barrel consumed cannot earn regardless of price unless that price is very low. Meanwhile, around the world, crude customers have also used up their credit, Credit enabled customers to buy fuel at high prices even as their use of credit pushed prices higher, The high bid over too long a period and credit balance sheets are busted: lenders and borrowers are insolvent. Without credit, there is no fuel for you!

Don't believe me, watch what happens in Greece. F/X arbitrage and credit collapse is 'energy conservation by other means'. Any non-euro Greek currency will be unacceptable by fuel producers. What next? Greeks will obtain euros in black markets and sell fuel in the same black markets. Euro liquidity squeeze you say? Gas will cost $50 per gallon in Greece! The same in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. No credit, no gas: this is the de-automobilization of Europe and it is taking place under everyone's nose!

The real problem is the USA-style waste-based economy which is designed not to show a return for fuel consumption,, just the consumption only. This economy is out of gas, out of credit, out of jobs and soon enough completely out of business. No matter what the Fed does, what Obama or his Wall Street pals do, what Randall Wray or Nouriel Roubini do, either.

The problem is at the end of your driveway; the choice you face are do you drive or have a job? Drive or have something to eat? Your choice.

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Lindsay N BowkerOctober 28th, 2011 at 3:16 pm

I have posted a link to this blog at TED Conversations where we have been exploring the imact of purely speculative ( non-commercial) trades in food on food prices and global hunger levels. (http://www.ted.com/conversations/6056/commodities_speculation_a_cau.html?c=337635)

I would apprecate your comments Randall, and also those of other commenters here on your sense of what will happen to the commercial side when the non-commercial side blows..I interpret your post here as saying that the market has found its way back to its own funadmentals ( approaching trend) and assme that the commercial trades providing liquidity, risk management and supporting valid price discovery all still working and perhaps even counterbalancing the speculative part of the market. Does that mean that there will be no spill over to the commercial side of the market when the non-commercial side takes its losses.?

Thanks for your great blog and for this very intriguing post, which for me holds out hope that food prices will be free of the added spikes, volatility and inflation of the non commercial trades. Very troubling though that the most vulnerable,,working and middle income people nearing retirement will be left holding the bag.

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