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Helicopter Ben: How Modern Money Theory Responds to Hyperinflation Hyperventilators, Part 3

In the first part of this series on hyperinflation I addressed the critic’s view that if Modern Monetary Theory were adopted, this would inevitably lead to hyperinflation. I argued that this is obviously false—MMT describes how any sovereign government that issues its own currency spends. They’ve all done it for the past “4000 years at least” as Keynes put it. All modern sovereign governments spend by “keystrokes”—making electronic entries onto balance sheets—what most critics somewhat misleadingly call “printing money”. There is no other way to spend a sovereign currency into existence. Only the sovereign government can create it. If you try to create US currency in your basement, you go to jail.

In the second part, I argued that hyperinflation is a rare occurrence. Obviously, if “keystrokes” inevitably lead to hyperinflation, then hyperinflation ought to be a common feature of just about all economies for the past 4000 years. Instead, we find that experience with hyperinflation is quite limited, and seems to result from very specific circumstances such as unwillingness or inability to impose and collect taxes, with civil war, or with huge external debts denominated in a foreign currency. And while goldbugs and others think that tying a currency to gold (or to a foreign currency) is a sure-fire way to avoid inflation, what we actually observe in the real world is that such systems are inherently unstable and rarely last long before they crash—often with an exchange rate crisis and high or hyper-inflation.

In this final part of the series I will address the belief that the US (and other countries with large budget deficits in their own floating rate currency) faces hyperinflation. Many fear that “Helicopter Ben” (Chairman Bernanke) has pumped so much “money” into the economy that high inflation, if not hyperinflation, will be the inevitable result. This is one of the reasons for the run into gold—supposedly an inflation hedge.

In reality, there is no surer bet than the wager that the US will not experience significant inflation for many years to come.

Let us first deal with the helicopter story. In the aftermath of the financial collapse of 2008, the US government (Fed plus Treasury) spent, lent, or guaranteed to the sum of $29 trillion to save Wall Street. (That, in itself, is the story of the century; but it will have to wait for another day.) What concerns our hyperinflationary hyperventilators is the record increase of bank reserves—created as the Fed lent reserves, purchased toxic waste assets, and bought Treasuries from banks. The Fed makes purchases and lends by crediting banks with reserves (the Fed’s liability) in exchange for an asset (either the bank’s IOU, or the asset sold by the bank to the Fed).

Most of this occurred during QE1 and QE2, undertaken in the Fed’s misguided belief that it could pursue a “quantity target” (increasing reserves) rather than simply a “price target” (low interest rate) to stimulate the economy. (That too is an amazing story of self-deception, to be told another day.) It didn’t work. Now QE3 seems inevitable, and it will not work, either. But in any case, the banks have got a couple of trillion dollars of reserves that they do not need.

The hyperventilators scream hyperinflation! As soon as banks start to lend out those reserves, borrowers will pump up the economy beyond full employment, causing inflation. Worse, banks can lend a multiple of the reserves (the so-called deposit multiplier)—so rather than lending a measly $2 trillion, they might lend $20 trillion or more. That would add trillions to our GDP of about $14 trillion, obviously way beyond the capacity to actually produce goods and services. And all that comes on top of the Federal government’s record budget deficits—and its borrowing. So a debt-fueled spending bubble will make us the next Zimbabwe or Weimar.

Here’s what is wrong with the analysis. First, it misunderstands the relation between bank reserves and lending. Second, it misunderstands the economic situation.
Banks do not lend reserves. Indeed, they cannot—there is no balance sheet operation that allows banks to lend reserves to anyone except to another bank that has an account at the Fed. The reason is quite simple: reserves are an entry on the balance sheet of the Fed. When a bank lends reserves, the Fed debits that bank’s account and credits another bank’s account. You and I do not have accounts at the Fed. No bank can lend reserves to us. Period.

What do banks actually lend? Their own IOUs. Let us say that you are credit worthy (maybe a stretch, given the state of the economy—perhaps like many Americans you’ve lost your job and are delinquent in your house payments). You go to your bank and ask for a loan—for a car, a boat, a house, a TV. You provide your IOU to the bank (promising to make payments) and the bank provides you with a check (its IOU) that you hand over to the seller. The seller deposits the check and gets a credit to a demand deposit. (If it is a different bank, there is a clearing of accounts using reserves—we’ll get back to that.) In other words, banks make loans by crediting demand deposits—which are the IOUs of banks. As we MMTers say “loans make deposits”.

(When you repay a loan, the deposits are debited, or “destroyed”. You write a check, the bank debits your demand deposit and your IOU to the bank is simultaneously debited. The process is the reverse of bank lending.)

So to be clear: banks create demand deposits when they make loans; they do not lend reserves.

Now, what about check clearing? When a bank gets a check from another bank, it credits a demand deposit and sends the check to the Fed for clearing; the Fed credits that bank’s reserves and debits the reserves of the bank on which the check was written. The reserves “move” from one bank to another. Again, no reserves have escaped into the economy—they are all safely locked up at the Fed. They cannot get out except through ATM machines, in the form of cash. When you make a withdrawal of cash from your demand deposit, your bank debits your account and the Fed debits the bank’s reserves. Of course, you could just have well spent using a demand deposit—you took out the cash for convenience (perhaps to finance illegal purchases?).

The only other way that reserves disappear is when the banks buy Treasuries from the Fed or from the Treasury—they essentially “pay for” Treasuries using reserves. That is the end of the story of reserves. Except for cash withdrawals or purchases of Treasuries, they stay locked up at the Fed.

What about Helicopter Ben? When the Fed bought all that junk as well as Treasuries from banks, Ben had the Fed credit their reserves. The Fed also changed its practice and began to pay interest on reserves—25 basis points. So effectively reserves became indistinguishable from Treasuries—they are government IOUs that pay interest. Banks can choose to hold a Treasury that pays interest, or reserves that pay interest—it is a portfolio choice. One has a maturity (maybe as short as 30 days), so it is like a time deposit, and the other has zero maturity so it is like a checkable deposit. But since the market for Treasuries is highly developed and liquid, banks have no problem moving from their “time deposits” (Treasuries) to their “demand deposits” (reserves). (No substantial penalty for early “withdrawal”!)

The main case for hyperinflation rests on the misguided belief that banks are for some reason more willing to pump up lending when they hold “demand deposits” rather than “time deposits”. Clearly they do not lend either one. They use reserves (“demand deposits”) for clearing with other banks, and for ATM withdrawals. But Treasuries (“time deposits”) serve just as well—banks can always borrow reserves from other banks or from the Fed, using Treasuries as collateral (and they’ve got other assets that also serve as collateral except in a run to liquidity).

Indeed, banks do not need either reserves or Treasuries in order to lend. Recall they lend their own IOUs. If they then find they need reserves for clearing (or, later, to meet required reserve ratios), they borrow them from other banks (fed funds market) or from the Fed (discount window), or they sell assets to obtain them.

Turning to the state of the economy, except for the final stages of the speculative boom in commodities (that will surely end soon) there are no significant inflation pressures. Fourteen million people are looking for jobs. Even the most rosy projections see high unemployment for years. As Eric Tymoigne has demonstrated, at the current pace of “recovery” we will not get back to the employment levels of January 2008 before 2017—and meanwhile the potential labor force will have added millions of high school and college graduates as well as immigrants. (http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2011/09/after-great-recession-bleaker.html)

And the US is in relatively good shape—compared with Euroland and Japan. Further, all the recent evidence for the US shows a “double-dip” is underway. I expect resumption of the financial crisis any day (the lawsuits against the biggest banksters will help hasten that). Even the Chinese economy is slowing—which could increase their efforts to produce competitive exports.

Just where are all those borrowers who are willing and able to borrow the $2 trillion or $20 trillion that hyperventilators believe banks want to lend? The US private sector (firms and households) have instead ramped up their net savings—they are not borrowing, they are not even spending their diminished income. They are scared. They are (rationally) tightening belts, paying down debt, and accumulating claims on government and banks.

In short, the prospects for inflation have not been smaller since 1930.

890 Responses to “Helicopter Ben: How Modern Money Theory Responds to Hyperinflation Hyperventilators, Part 3”

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LR WraySeptember 7th, 2011 at 3:04 pm

I know some will question my views above on the relation between reserves and bank lending. I just saw this from a Fed VP (who has been saying this for years, but he if finally getting some notice):

Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Alan Holmes. Holmes explained why the then faddish Monetarist policy of controlling inflation by controlling the growth of Base Money had failed, saying that it suffered from "a naive assumption" that:
the banking system only expands loans after the [Federal Reserve] System (or market factors) have put reserves in the banking system. In the real world, banks extend credit, creating deposits in the process, and look for the reserves later. The question then becomes one of whether and how the Federal Reserve will accommodate the demand for reserves. In the very short run, the Federal Reserve has little or no choice about accommodating that demand; over time, its influence can obviously be felt.

Neil WilsonSeptember 7th, 2011 at 4:05 pm

I like the speech to bankers from the Rt Honourable Reginald McKenna in his Book Post-War Banking Policy published in 1928. He was Chancellor of the Exchequer in Asquith's government in the UK (1915 to 1916).

"We have now reached the point at which we may say that payments into banks of currency and bank loans, giving the word load the widest meaning are the only sources of increase of the aggregate of bank deposits which we need consider. At the risk of wearying you with a discussion of a process with which you are probably already thoroughly familiar, let me give a brief illustration of how bank deposits are increased by bank loans.

When a bank makes a loan to a customer or allows him an overdraft, in the ordinary course the loan will be drawn upon, or the overdraft will be made, by a cheque upon the bank drawn by the customer and paid into someone's credit at the same or another bank. The drawer of the cheque will no have reduced any deposit already in existence because we are supposing a case in which he has been given a loan or allowed an overdraft. The receiver of the cheque, however, when he pays it into his own account, will be credited with its value and thereby a new deposit will be created."

wh10September 7th, 2011 at 11:31 pm

Dr. Wray,

Awesome quote. Do you have the source?

What does he mean by 'in the long run?' What will they do, other than announce a new interest rate?

Thanks!

wh10September 8th, 2011 at 2:53 am

Dr. Wray,

The one additional issue I would have liked to have seen you address head-on is QE not with banks but with non-bank holders of treasuries (so the money multiplier fallacy is irrelevant in this case). Dr. Fullwiler has taken this on nicely, but I was just curious if you have your own way of explaining why that isn't inflationary.

RJGSeptember 8th, 2011 at 7:27 pm

Dr. Wray,

What are your thoughts on monetarist nominal GDP level targeting taken by the Fed. Is there a transmission mechanism that such targeting could be accomplished?

Thank you

Jesse DarvasSeptember 9th, 2011 at 4:23 pm

Dr Wray,
If I understand your view correctly, there can be no inflation as long as there are unemployed capacities in the economy. I thought this "Philips curve" (inflation/unemployment trade) view was disproved after the oil shock which ushered 10 years of "stagflation": high inflation with high unemployment.
There is one inflation conduit of QE: low rates encourage investment in commodities which push their prices up which translate in higher energy/food prices.
Granted, this does not seem to lead to "hyperinflation". But high inflation with declining real wages doesn't seem impossible. Especially if trade barriers are erected in reaction to the crisis, which will push prices up some more (absent the competitive pressure from foreign low-wages firms).

wh10September 12th, 2011 at 1:45 am

Jesse,

The position is more accurately that there cannot be substantial, prolonged *demand-pull* inflation with unemployed capacities. Stagflation of the 1970s was characterized by cost-pull inflation (the oil shocks).

MMT also has recognized your point regarding commodity speculation due to QE.

some guySeptember 14th, 2011 at 6:50 am

"Again, no reserves have escaped into the economy—they are all safely locked up at the Fed. They cannot get out except through ATM machines, in the form of cash."

What happens if people believe very strongly the hyperinflation is nigh, perform bank runs, withdraw as much cash as they can through ATM, government printing the bills again and again to fill the ATM machines, and finally, most of the trillions in reserves go to the street. Would hyperinflation materialize ?

In the long run, as banks are designed to be looted, reserves etc. are changed into bonuses and high salaries, why couldn't it create at least inflation, utlitmately, with banksters spending so much in bribery ans private army to defend against populace wrath (ok, i'm half-joking) in their respective barony ?

some guySeptember 14th, 2011 at 1:39 pm

Ok. I've got it : people's salaries are already affecting prices through credit card, etc. making it printed notes won't change much.

Bankers are way too few to make more effect on prices than the usual billonaires…

Am I correct ?

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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