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Not Worth a Continental! How Modern Money Theory Replies to Hyperinflation Hyperventilators (Part 2)

Author: L. Randall Wray  ·   ·   › Share This Print

Last week we began what is a three part series on the Modern Money Theory’s response to critics who argue that a government following MMT principles will necessarily generate hyperinflation. Last week, in Part 1, I explained that when MMT says that government spends by “keystrokes”, this is a description, not a prescription. If critics were correct that government spending by “printing money” necessarily leads to hyperinflation, then most developed nations would have hyperinflation all the time. Because we all spend by keystrokes. And all governments that issue their own currency have to spend it before they can collect it in taxes (or bond sales)—no one else can create it. Hence, government always spends by essentially “printing money” (keystroking into existence entries on balance sheets)—no one else can create the money that is used to pay taxes or buy government bonds.  And, yet, high inflation and hyperinflation are rare events.

I also addressed the common view that going back to a “real money” based on gold relies on a misunderstanding of the operation of the gold standard. Gold coins are really government “fiat” money in which the government’s IOU is stamped on a coin containing some precious metal. Further, gold bullion really did not serve as the basis for international monies, either, since the pre-WWII international payments system was based on sterling while the Bretton Woods system was based on the dollar. In each case, the nation issuing the international reserve currency (first the pound and then the dollar) fixed the price of gold—and payments were actually made in pounds and dollars, respectively.

Further, far from providing stability to domestic and international systems, gold standards actually operated much like today’s fixed exchange rates based on pegs to the dollar or based on a currency board arrangement. These not only suffer from inflations (and sometimes deflations) but also are prone to exchange rate crises—that typically lead to abandonment of the peg. A mythology about the gold standard has developed that deviates markedly from real world experience. Both the sterling and the dollar systems broke down when the issuer of the international reserve abandoned the commitment to fix the gold price. While the gold standard might work in theory, it fails in practice—just like currency boards or other fixed exchange rate systems.

Finally, I briefly examined the popular Monetarist theory of hyperinflation, developed by Cagan. Friedman had claimed that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, with price increases supposedly closely related to excessive growth of the money supply. However, in hyperinflations, prices grow very much faster than money growth—so Cagan supposed this is because money demand collapses (velocity of money accelerates) as no one wants to hold money that is rapidly falling in value. So excess money is still to blame; and because government supposedly controls the money supply it must be the government’s fault. This hypothesis is further supported by the observation that in hyperinflations, government deficits tend to rise.

Next week we will look at the prospects for high or even hyperinflation in the US (and by implication in the UK, Japan, and other countries with high budget deficits and floating exchange rates). This week we look at historical examples of hyperinflation periods.  Hyperinflations are caused by quite specific circumstances, although there are some shared characteristics of countries and monetary regimes that experience hyperinflation. The simple Monetarist explanation sheds almost no light on the experience.

First, however, it is important to examine the relation between budget deficits and high or hyperinflation. When Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira was finance minister for Brazil during a high inflation period he provided an insightful analysis of the alternative. In an important sense, tax revenues are “backward-looking”, based on past economic performance. Income taxes, for example, are calculated and collected with a rather long lag. Even sales taxes are collected with a lag. When inflation is running at 2% per year, the lag does not matter much; but if it is running 10% or 50% per month, even a short lag makes a big difference. Government spending is more contemporaneous—as prices rise, government pays more.

Of course, this effect will depend on indexing—how often are the wages, prices, and transfer payments increased as prices rise. In countries, like Brazil, with high inflation, the reset period for indexing tends to fall—so that government spending rises nearly as fast as inflation. With tax revenues growing more slowly, a budget deficit is created. Of course, indexing also tends to build-in inertial inflation (a wage-price spiral is created as rising prices trigger wage increases that induce firms to raise prices to cover costs). Bresser realized that the way to reduce growth of the deficit and to cut inflation was to check indexing. While it is painful, if government can postpone the increases to wages, welfare payments, and prices paid by government, it can reduce inflation pressures and at the same time reduce the budget deficit.

The important point to note, however, is that budget deficits are at least to some degree an effect, not a cause, of inflation. Still, it is true that if government reduces its deficit (by eliminating indexing, for example) it will reduce inflation pressures. To be sure, it can achieve the same result through draconian tax hikes. Note also that this policy recommendation is not inconsistent with the conventional view that fiscal austerity can reduce high inflation. Indeed, MMTers have always agreed that one way to fight high inflation is to cut government spending or to raise taxes. What they reject is the Monetarist belief that the cause of high inflation is a simple matter of “too much money”.

There is a link among high (or hyper) inflation, budget deficits, and “money supply”—although it is not a simple Monetarist dynamic. As discussed, government always spends by “keystrokes” that credit accounts, and taxes (or sells bonds) by reverse keystrokes that debit accounts. Deficits mean government credited more to accounts than it debited, so that government IOUs have been net created in the form of “high powered money” (HPM or reserves plus cash) and treasuries (bonds and bills). As discussed above, in high or hyper- inflation periods, taxes (debits to accounts) grow more slowly than government spending (credits to accounts) so we expect deficits to result—which means government IOUs outstanding (HPM plus Treasuries) grow.

This is not the simple Monetarist story in which government “prints too much money” that causes high inflation, but rather a more complicated causal sequence in which high inflation helps to create deficits—that by identity equal net credits to balance sheets. Matters are made worse if a high interest rate policy is pursued by the central bank. This is because government typically sells a lot of treasuries as its deficit rises (sometimes this is actually required by operating procedures adopted, or it is due to a policy of setting the overnight interest rate target above the support rate—in the US this would be a case where the Fed’s fed funds target was above the rate it pays on excess reserves), and interest payments on treasuries add to government spending. If the central bank reacts to growing deficits by raising interest rate targets, it helps to fuel  growth of the deficit and also adds demand stimulus to the economy.

Stopping the inflation (for example by eliminating indexation of government spending) will probably reduce the deficits and the growth of HPM and treasuries outstanding. (That will also reduce interest payments by government, slowing growth of nongovernment incomes and depressing demand.) Alternatively, accelerating tax collection would achieve the same goal. Lowering the interest rate target could also help.

Let us turn to historical episodes with hyperinflation. America has had two such well-known experiences: the “Continentals” and the Confederate currency (we still have the phrase, “not worth a Continental”). In the pre-revolutionary period, the American colonies actually experimented fairly successfully with paper “fiat” currencies. To some extent, this was emergency behavior–they were prohibited by the Crown from coining currency. Some commentators at the time—including Adam Smith—noted that even though these notes were not redeemable for precious metal, they maintained their value so long as the issue was not too excessive relative to total taxes. As MMTers say, “taxes drive money”—so long as paper IOUs of government are accepted in tax payment, they will be accepted in payment. Still, their value will be determined by “how hard” they are to obtain. If money “grew on trees” (as our mothers used to say), it would be worth only the effort required to pick it. If colonial governments spent too much into existence so that it was easy to obtain paper notes to pay taxes, then they would circulate at lower value.

Both the Continentals and the Confederate currency shared common defects. First, the requirements of wars (Britain vs the colonies, North vs South) made the currencies overly abundant. Certainly there is nothing new about that—wars generally do experience inflation as government spending ramps up demand, causes shortages, and chases prices up. However, that was also true of the currency issued in the Union—which suffered from very high inflation, but not nearly so bad as that experienced in the South. The difference was taxes—essentially there were no taxes backing either Continentals or the Confederate currency. In the first case, the loose confederation of the colonies did not have sufficient authority to impose and enforce taxes; in the second, the representatives of the Confederate states believed that the population was already suffering too much from prosecuting the war of rebellion—so did not want to add the burden of taxation. By contrast, even though the North ran large deficits, it retained a tax system to drive the currency and thus avoided hyperinflation. While it might be thought that the South’s much worse experience can be attributed to pessimism over its prospects of winning, that does not seem to be the case.  Even near the end of the war, when prospects were bleakest, the Confederacy was still able to float bonds at relatively low interest.  (For those who are interested in these cases, see my book, Understanding Modern Money for more discussion.)

Today, the best known cases of hyperinflation occurred during the Weimar Republic and more recently in Zimbabwe. (Less well-known but more spectacular was the Hungarian hyperinflation.) The best analyses of these that I have seen are by William Mitchell (at billyblog: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=10554; http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=13035), Rob Parenteau  http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/parenteau-the-hyperinflation-hyperventalists.html, Cullen Roche http://pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-monetary-phenomenon , and at http://rabble.ca/print/blogs/bloggers/progressive-economics-forum/2011/08/mythologies-money-and-hyperinflation. Cullen actually looked at 10 modern (post 1900) hyperinflations and found several common themes. First, most of the ten occurred during a civil war, with a regime change. A majority also occurred with large debt denominated in foreign currency (this included Austria, Hugary, Weimar Germany, Argentina, and Zimbabwe). I am not going to reproduce these excellent analyses, but let me just very quickly summarize key points about the Weimar and Zimbabwe hyperinflations to assure readers these were not simple cases of too much “money printing” to finance government that was “running amuck”.

The typical story about Weimar Germany is that the government began to freely print a fiat money with no gold standing behind it, with no regard for the hyperinflationary consequences. The reality is more complex. First, we must understand that even in the early 20th century, most governments spent by issuing IOUs—albeit many were convertible on demand to sterling or gold. Germany had lost WWI and suffered under the burden of impossibly large reparations payments—that had to be made in gold. To make matters worse, much of its productive capacity had been destroyed or captured, and it had little gold reserves. It was supposed to export to earn the gold needed to make the payments demanded by the victors. (Keynes wrote his first globally famous book arguing that Germany could not possibly pay the debts—note these were external debts denominated essentially in gold.)

The nation’s productive capacity was not even sufficient to satisfy domestic demand, much less to export to pay reparations. Government knew that it was not only economically impossible but also politically impossible to impose taxes at a sufficient level to move resources to the public sector for exports to make the reparations payments. So instead it relied on spending. This meant government competed with domestic demand for a limited supply of output—driving prices up. At the same time, Germany’s domestic producers had to borrow abroad (in foreign currency) to buy needed imports. Rising prices plus foreign borrowing caused depreciation of the domestic currency, which increased necessitous borrowing (since foreign imports cost more in terms of domestic currency) and at the same time increased the cost of the reparations in terms of domestic currency.

While it is often claimed that the central bank contributed to the inflation by purchasing debt from the treasury, actually it operated much like the Fed: it bought government debt from banks—offering them a higher earning asset in exchange for reserves. For the reasons discussed above, budget deficits resulted from the high and then hyper- inflation as tax revenue could not keep pace with rising prices.

Finally in 1924 Germany adopted a new currency, and while it was not legal tender, it was designated acceptable for tax payment. The hyperinflation ended.

To say that Weimar’s hyperinflation simply came down to a matter of government “printing money” is obviously far too simple. Let us turn to Zimbabwe. Here is a country that was going through tremendous social and political upheaval, with unemployment reaching 80% of the workforce and GDP had fallen by 40%. This followed controversial land reform that subdivided farms and led to collapse of food production. Government had to rely on food imports and IMF lending—another case of external debts. With food scarcity and government and the private sector competing for a much reduced supply, prices were pushed up. This was also another case in which government could not have raised taxes, for both political and economic reasons. Again, to label this a simple Monetarist case of government “printing money” really sheds no light on Zimbabwe’s problems.

My point is not to argue that greater constraints on government spending (or greater capacity to increase taxes) might not have successfully prevented inflation. However, as one studies specific cases of hyperinflation one recognizes that it is not a simple story of government adopting a fiat money and suddenly it finds itself printing so much that it causes hyperinflation. There are probably many paths to hyperinflation, but there are common problems: social and political upheaval; civil war; collapse of productive capacity (that could be due to war); weak government; and foreign debt denominated in external currency or gold. Yes, we do observe rising budget deficits and (really by identity) growing outstanding government IOUs. But we also find banks creating money (more next week) to finance private spending that competes with government to drive up prices. And, yes, tighter fiscal policy would have helped to reduce inflationary pressures. This probably would not have reduced overall suffering, since a common cause of hyperinflation is some kind of supply constraint on output.

Next week we will finish this series by looking at the potential for high or hyper-inflation in the US, UK, or Japan.

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1,131 Responses to “Not Worth a Continental! How Modern Money Theory Replies to Hyperinflation Hyperventilators (Part 2)”

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Sergio Silva • August 31st, 2011 at 4:16 am

Chileans history has had several periods of hyperinflation, we learned from those experiences that fiscal discipline is the only way to put a cap on the inflation rate. Once an for all we became aware to this fact that is that inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

Trent • August 31st, 2011 at 4:47 am

"While it is often claimed that the (Weimar) central bank contributed to the inflation by purchasing debt from the treasury, actually it operated much like the Fed:"

As good a reason as any to hyperventilate..

Creditanstalt • August 31st, 2011 at 7:03 am

>Both the sterling and the dollar systems broke down when the issuer of the international >reserve abandoned the commitment to fix the gold price. While the gold standard might work >in theory, it fails in practice—just like currency boards or other fixed exchange rate systems.

It fails when the govt is unable to support it (Triffin dilemma) and/or when De Gaulle attempts to redeem his gold. See also London Gold Pool and GAB.

burkbraun • August 31st, 2011 at 4:31 pm

My understanding of the Weimar episode is that the central bank was far too independent, and once central banking was brought under government control again, the inflation ended.
http://www.prosperityagenda.us/node/200

The mechanism was that the bankers, both central and private, created (loaned) money as desired by the markets, who were largely at this point speculators short-selling the currency. They saw fit to keep on lending, creating money, because it was highly profitable for their speculating customers (i.e. fellow bankers). It really had little to do with the government's finances per se, though this had begun some level of inflation leading up to the hyperinflation episode.

mel • August 31st, 2011 at 7:36 pm

One basic economic factor not included, is that money is created as a result of a price increase. Pull up to the gas station, pay $5.00 more for a tank full than you did last week and you have just added $5.00 into circulation and the supply of money has just been increased by $5.00.

cjenscook • September 2nd, 2011 at 9:09 am

Indeed.

The demands by landlords for rent in excess of costs, and by enterprise owners for profit in excess of costs are in fact – above all else – the drivers of price inflation.

But since mainstream economics is a narrative created by and for the propertied, that fact – based upon accounting identities – is ignored.

The rhetoric of mainstream economics creates a distorted view of reality. When we hear of private sector=productive and public sector = unproductive (and a drain upon the wealth creators) what we actually mean by 'productive' is 'productive of rentier profit' denominated in fiat currency.

So a nurse working for the State an unproductive drain on taxpayers, whereas the same nurse doing the same work for a private hospital is productively creating 'wealth'. And when a factory is automated, putting 100 out of work, then the person who switches the factory on and off has become infinitely 'productive'.

But of course, fiat money is not 'wealth' but a claim over it.

L. Randall Wray • September 2nd, 2011 at 9:24 pm

mel and cjenstock: exactly. in any modern economy most of the "money" and most of the inflation pressure comes from the private sector. the notion that an independent central bank somehow creates inflation pressure (via, for example, QE1, QE2, QE3) is nonsense. First the central bank is not independent. Second all it can do is substitute reserves for treasuries, and lower the overnight interest rate target. More on that next week. Thanks.

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