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MMT as an Alternative to Austerity

In recent weeks we all watched in horror as the world’s greatest economic power almost defaulted because its elected representatives would not raise the self-imposed debt limit preventing Washington from spending already budgeted monies. Armageddon was narrowly averted by a grand compromise but only through a combination of small spending cuts soon and a series of “triggers” that will lead to automatic cuts made later by a Rube Goldberg doomsday machine.

It’s clear the mess amounted to political theater—to allow Republicans to promote fiscal rectitude, while Democrats trumpeted their concern for the common man. Everyone within the Washington Beltway, from think tank pundits to news media reporters, from politicians to appointed policy makers, and from representatives of labor to the hired corporate guns agree the US government budget is on an unsustainable trajectory that can only be put right by trillions of dollars of cuts, or less popularly, with tax increases.

The biggest economy in the world can no longer afford its New Deal safety nets that are bankrupting the nation—soon to join the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) with debt too big to service.

There is an alternative view with a long—but mostly forgotten—lineage, based on the works of those like G.F. Knapp, J.M. Keynes, A. Lerner, R. Eisner, and H.P.Minsky. Fortunately it has enjoyed a resurgence as modern money theory (MMT), rejecting the “deficit dove” position accepting deficits in recession but want movement to balance a surplus after recovery begins , as well as “deficit hawks” who push for balanced budget amendments to hasten recovery purportedly hastened by fiscal austerity.

Lerner called it “functional finance”—the view that the budgetary outcome should never be a target, rather, it should be functional, achieving proper goals such as full employment, price stability, and a desirable income distribution.

Ask yourself: where does the US government get dollars? From taxpayers? From Chinese purchasers of its debt? Well, can taxpayers and the Chinese print dollars? No. All the tax dollars received were previously created through government’s own spending or lending. Citizens, businesses and banks can only use already existing dollars to pay taxes or buy Treasuries (government bonds)

Think of it this way: government spends by creating dollars (coins, notes, reserves, and bonds) or through electronic deposits into bank accounts. Can it ever run out of its own currency? Does it need to borrow its own dollars? Does it need taxes to spend? No, of course not.

To recap: government creates US dollars when it spends or lends, never has to borrow them or raise them through taxes, and cannot run out of them.  Before the debt deal, President Obama claimed the government was “running out of money”, but as soon as the debt limit was raised, Washington resumed selling its IOUs to private banks. The problem was never with markets, but with the self-imposed, political constraints.

There are two kinds of constraints. The huge debate over the past few weeks had to do with the Congressionally-imposed debt limit. As it is a law passed by Congress, and as the limit has been routinely raised in the past, it is obvious that the debt limit results from Congressional whim. Congress could raise it to $100 quadrillion tomorrow—if it wanted.

The second constraint is that the Treasury must have a deposit in its account at the Fed before it can write a check. Normally this is not a problem. When Treasury wants to spend but is short credits in its account, it sells Treasuries to special private banks that buy them, credit the Treasury’s checking account at these banks, and then Treasury moves its deposits over to the Fed to write checks.

The debt limit is what prevented Treasury from doing this—so as soon as it was raised, this constraint did not matter, either.

In any case, clever analysts had come up with suggestions to get around the dual constraints, such as the Trillion Dollar Platinum Coinage proposal already discussed on this blog.

The Fed is prohibited from directly buying US government debt and crediting the Treasury’s checking account so it can spend. That is why Treasury first sells the bonds to private banks. The Fed routinely buys Treasuries from the banks—so effectively the private banks operate as intermediaries between the Fed and Treasury—buying newly issued bonds then selling them to the Fed. If we skipped that intermediate step, it would be clear for all to see that the Fed ends up with the bonds.

There is no limit to the Fed’s ability to buy Treasuries from “markets”—it simply credits banks with reserves. Hence, this third constraint is also a self-imposed constraint–one that usually does not bind. However, Fed holdings of Treasuries are included in the Congressionally-imposed debt limit. So once the debt limit is reached, the Treasury is not permitted to sell them to banks even though they would end up at the Fed.

If you think about it, that is very strange—when the Fed buys bonds, is a case of the left hand owing the right. For that matter, the Social Security Trust Fund’s assets consist solely of Treasury debt—another case of the left owing the right. Whenever Washington wants to scare the population about runaway debt, it always includes all the debt the US government owes to itself. And by mandating these three self-imposed constraints, Congress and the President are able to make silly statements such as: the government is running out of money and is in danger of finding its credit cards repossessed.

The US Constitution, however, gives the Treasury the unique power to coin and an obscure 1996 law permits coining platinum in any denomination. Treasury can stamp three trillion dollar coins, sell them to the Fed, obtaining a credit to its account used to finance spending or to pay off debt. Or it could stamp 300 trillion dollar coins. You get the picture. With the authority given to it by the US Constitution, it is literally impossible for Treasury to run out of money.

My point is not to suggest issuing giant, platinum coins but rather to emphasize that a sovereign issuer only faces self-imposed constraints. These are human-made, not economic, rules. The market does not and cannot impose affordability constraints on government that issues its own currency.

This was stressed in a statement by former Chair Alan Greenspan who insisted there is no chance the government would ever be forced to default on its commitments because as currency issuer, it can always “print money” to pay its bills. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44051683

When government issues more dollars while spending than it receives through taxes, we call that a deficit. It puts more money in the private sector, creating additional private sales and jobs. That is the notion of the multiplier.

While many debate the size of the multiplier, they miss the main point. Let us say the multiplier is very small—so government spending induces very little additional private spending, because most of the dollars and income just goes to private sector saving and debt repayment. If so, that is a good thing! It means government can spend even more, and can cut taxes—without worrying the induced private spending would drive the economy beyond full employment.

Deficits also add wealth: government debt is what we OWN, not what we OWE. The (in)famous debt clock near Times Square really should read “wealth clock” as federal government deficits add dollar net wealth to the nongovernment sector, “dollar for dollar”. This is debt that need not ever be “paid back” and indeed will not be repaid.

US government debt has risen on trend since 1837 (the only time it was debt free) with very brief periods when it was temporarily reduced. Normally, when debt matures it is simply rolled over. Deficits are obviously sustainable—they are just the flip-side to growing net financial wealth of the nongovernment sector. Ask yourself: is there a limit to the amount of dollar wealth you would be willing to accept?

If so, please contribute the excess to my university’s endowment and we will use it to support PhD students studying MMT. We’ll make good use of any wealth you do not want.

A budget surplus is the opposite of a deficit: government removes dollars and income and wealth and spending and jobs from the economy. We have had only seven sustained periods of budget surpluses and debt reduction. The first six were followed by our six depressions; the last of those six surpluses came in 1929 and was followed by the Great Depression.

The seventh surplus period was during the Clinton years, followed by the Bush recession and then a brief reprieve during the real estate bubble, followed by the Global Financial Collapse. And yet in spite of this 100% correlation of budget surpluses and economic calamities it is claimed that surpluses are good for our health!

Keynes once argued that economists ought to aspire to be at least as useful as dentists. Today, they are no better than Medieval blood-letters. That is probably an unfair comparison. Economists kill far more people. Blood-letting did no good, but the harm it did never came close to the suffering and death caused by Harvard economists like Larry Summers. And that is just one American university. (Hint: Chicago, Princeton, Columbia, Yale, and MIT are also full of them.) In any case, dentists they ain’t.

Paul Samuelson argued that we need myths about government deficits in order to restrain the population. Samuelson is from an older generation of economists—who had taken Keynes seriously. But he still wanted to promote what he knew to be a lie: government faces an affordability constraint, and while it does not need to balance its budget in every period, it should aim to do so over the business cycle. He likened these myths to “old time religion”—necessary to keep the population’s demands in line.

So what’s the downside of a more relaxed attitude to debt? Government might spend too much—driving the economy beyond full employment and sparking inflation. Samuelson was correct on this. The danger arising from too much sovereign government spending is not that government will run out of money. Rather, too much spending will generate inflation.

The solution is to spend less or hike taxes.

Fortunately, budget deficits automatically fall in recovery—because taxes grow and government social spending falls. If the deficit still remained high enough to fuel inflation, the government should raise taxes and cut spending—but only once the economy recovers and inflation threatens—not now with unemployment near postwar records and the economy poised for a double-dip recession.

There is another consideration: sometimes deficits that promote growth also produce trade deficits as imports grow faster than exports. Many believe this generates currency depreciation. The evidence is weak, but even if true then the tradeoff is: more growth and employment versus a stronger currency. Would you prefer a job or a cheap foreign holiday?

The danger is said to be even worse if foreigners hold the government’s debt—they might refuse bonds unless the deficit is reduced. But we already noted that foreigners cannot create dollars—they get them by exporting to the US. Every dollar supposedly lent by China came from the US.

And the reason they export is because they want the dollars! If they decide they don’t want dollars, they have to stop earning them through exports. And in reality, if foreigners decide not to purchase Treasuries, they instead hold cash (mostly in the form of bank reserves that are claims on the Fed) that doesn’t pay interest. Why should Americans worry about that?

Government does need to be constrained by budgets, spending just enough to keep its citizens employed and healthy, while leaving sufficient resources for private purposes. Today, with massive unemployment and low growth, government ought to be spending more, not less.

The euro nations face entirely different circumstances—they effectively surrendered the power to coin to the European Central Bank. They are users, not issuers of the currency. Their spending is constrained by tax revenue plus the euros borrowed from markets or the ECB (and other international lenders of euros).

Modern Monetary Theory does not apply to Greece, but it is applicable to all sovereign currency issuers, including the UK, Japan, Brazil, and India—which cannot face the PIIGS’s fate. As currency issuers, these sovereign countries do not need to borrow their own currency from markets.

The S&P downgrade of US debt on Friday just demonstrates the ratings agencies cannot tell the difference between a sovereign issuer of the currency versus the user. Greece can be forced to default. The US cannot. It is that simple.

S&P has argued that more important than the US’s deficit and debt ratios was the recent political theatre in Washington. Its decision, in other words, was largely a result of its disapproval of American politics. It has decided to choose sides in the political debate, taking the side of the deficit hawks and calling on Washington to make big spending cuts to “entitlements”.

This action should drive the final nail in the coffins of the ratings agencies. We know they are incapable of assessing credit risk. They failed massively during the real estate bubble, continuing to rate the very worst trash as triple-A right up to the bitter end. And we know why they did that—it was not merely incompetence. It was fraud. They were paid to lie.

Now they are little more than PACs (political action committees), doing the bidding of Pete Peterson and other deficit hysterians who are trying to take over policy-making. They are trying to force policy on Washington by subverting the (deeply flawed, in any case) “democratic” process. By downgrading US debt they hope to force up interest rates, to increase debt service costs and thereby to run the budget up against the debt limit again.

S&P’s obvious goal is to force Congress to speed its shredding of the New Deal safety nets. We know there is nothing to their claim that US debt is on an unsustainable path. The Treasury can never run out of dollars to service its debt. And even if Congress should ever refuse to raise the debt limit, the Treasury can stamp coins to sell to the Fed.

S&P is not rating credit risk, rather, it is assessing the likelihood that US policy-makers will choose to voluntarily default on debt, and upping the probability by trying to push up interest rates through its downgrades.

It is not going to work. Markets are not fooled. They recognize there is no default risk. Still, we can see some turmoil in markets that is in no small part due to S&P’s attempt to influence politics.

They should be shut down, with all their top management prosecuted for high crimes and misdemeanors.

 

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AndrewAugust 10th, 2011 at 2:33 am

Dr. Wray,

I found 2 more periods with large or sustained debt reductions. Between 1805 and 1812 the debt was reduced 45%. Between 1844 and 1846 the debt was reduced 33%. Were there any recessions or depressions resulting from these?

Also, the MMTers (and even the deficit doves) should model out potential inflationary impacts of various fiscal policies (whether it is short-term stimulus now or the impacts of entitlements). I spoke with Dr. Fullwiler about this, and he said was going to work on it. If the big takeaway is 'it's inflation, not default, stupid!" then I think it would be even more impactful to follow up on this excellent insight and do some projections.

John ZelnickerAugust 10th, 2011 at 10:47 pm

Dr. Wray — I am trying to write a column for my local paper on MMT. The way you outlined it above is one of the clearest and simplest explanations I have seen. For me, the challenge has been where to start. By starting with the idea of where dollars come from, I should be able to explain MMT more effectively. This approach also addresses two of the pervasive myths about government finance right up front. Thanx.

AndrewAugust 11th, 2011 at 2:57 am

Dr. Wray,

I hope you sat down with Alpert and Roubini to explain to them, using T accounts and the operational details, their confusion over debt monetization, the erroneous idea that banks lend reserves, the inflationary potential of QE, and the platinum coin.

Also, the idea of the platinum coin can be used to cancel debt holdings off the Fed balance sheet, as opposed to buying them from the private sector. This way, the coin never reaches banks or non-banks, and people like Alpert with erroneous, mainstream understandings of monetary operations shouldn't object because they think the private sector has more reserves. It just sits in a vault at the Fed forever. Publicly held debt is lowered, allowing more room for fiscal stimulus, which all three of you seem to agree on.

AndrewAugust 11th, 2011 at 3:01 am

One more thing! You let them get away with believing the coin idea would be the same as QE, which Alpert asserted. The difference, and the whole point of the coin idea, is NOT for monetary stimulus. It is to retire publicly held debt, allowing room for more fiscal stimulus under the debt ceiling, REGARDLESS from whom (the Fed or the private sector) it is purchased. Alpert says 'we don't need coins, we can just have the Fed print it.' He doesn't get it, once again.

anonAugust 11th, 2011 at 5:38 am

"In any case, clever analysts had come up with suggestions to get around the dual constraints, such as the Trillion Dollar Platinum Coinage proposal already discussed on this blog."

A blogosphere idea to remove a self-imposed constraint is not in itself the removal of a self-imposed constraint.

There are reasons why the platinum caper would never fly in reality.

There are better ideas for removing the same constraint.

But they won't fly either.

anonAugust 11th, 2011 at 5:41 am

It's quite simple.

Government cash management is constrained by central banking arrangements.

That's the constraint that must be removed, and MMT for some bizarre reason won't deal with it head on.

Will MorganAugust 11th, 2011 at 5:36 pm

You write "There is no limit to the Fed’s ability to buy Treasuries from “markets”—it simply credits banks with reserves. Hence, this third constraint is also a self-imposed constraint–one that usually does not bind. However, Fed holdings of Treasuries are included in the Congressionally-imposed debt limit. So once the debt limit is reached, the Treasury is not permitted to sell them to banks even though they would end up at the Fed."

Given this, why did Congress vote trillions of dollars in 2008 in order "to save the banks"?
If guaranteeing the Bank's reserves would have restored credit to those citizens who needed it, why did we have to pay off their frauds as well?

oceanAugust 11th, 2011 at 6:37 pm

I think either Austerity or Government Spending is a solution to our current malaise. My main issue is that (and correct me if I am wrong) MMT views any deficit spending (even if prone to malinvestment) to be better than austerity. This maybe correct and I understand the potential of further GDP destruction but I am not yet convinced. Iceland would be an example for austerity and cleansing of too big to fail appears to have worked to help the recovery.

I believe either austerity or deficit spending can work in the US as shown with
A1. Austerity with the cleansing of bad private debt (Iceland) or
A2. Deficit spending largely free of malinvestment (post great depression US)

What I am weary of is that in practice we will end up in the US is
B1. Austerity while retaining the bad debt (i.e. Europe)
B2. Deficit spending with malinvestment and bad private debts (Japan)

And of course some of the examples exist with different monetary systems (ECB sytem and the great depression gold standard are not examples of MMT) but the outcomes are what is relevant.

I’m open to either solution of A
But will resist either solution of B.

BobAugust 12th, 2011 at 9:07 pm

@Ocean: “My main issue is that (and correct me if I am wrong) MMT views any deficit spending (even if prone to malinvestment) to be better than austerity.”

You are wrong. You overstate the MMT position. There are certainly limits to how bad investment might be. For example, the stimulus to correct the 2008 problem gave a lot of money to bankers, which wasn’t nearly as effective as it would be to give money to people who actually need it and would be more likely to spend it (i.e., people with mid to low incomes).

It’s a matter of degree. At some point, a government spending policy becomes so inept that it would obviously be flawed (e.g., the government just gives a bunch of money to Donald Trump to store in his basement — that money would do nothing for the economy). Somewhere between made-up crazy hypotheticals like that and good fiscal policy there is a line where deficit spending becomes effective. One can argue about where that line is or what good policy is, but I don’t think MMT ever said that more spending is ALWAYS good.

oceanAugust 12th, 2011 at 10:15 pm

Good and I'm left with the quality of spending is largely for the political class to decide (and perhaps what is in the best interest of their constituents and lobbied interests). That said, elsewhere I argue that the debt ceiling is a poor proxy for the gold standard. And a better metric to be used by congress is a measure to qualify if deficit spending programs are "quality" or "effective". What would work as a metric to quantify this (I'm partial to debt/GDP but other MMT supporters do not agree with that measure)?

Eli BakerAugust 15th, 2011 at 3:55 pm

Dr Wray…Thank you so much for the economics lesson. You are a great teacher and I hope you do the intro classes which tend to be boring as hell with lots of math that teach little.

EB

CharlesAugust 20th, 2011 at 3:56 pm

I understand the premise, but all of this logic seems a bit too circular. 'Money' is only currency. It has no intrinsic value. Ultimately, it's use is only in it's exchange for resouces. I think you sound ground your theories in this.

LisaAugust 28th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

Excellent article, one of the best I have read.

You are absolutely right-its political theatre, with lousy producers playing with lousy constraints. The final results are a lousy production that is really constraining all unsuspecting victims in real life.

Jesse DarvasAugust 30th, 2011 at 3:30 pm

Hyperinflation seems to be the main objection to MMT. It doesn’t happen in countries with full employment : Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic were not running at full speed when it happened to them. So I would like to understand how your “description” of economic reality accounts for these kinds of episodes.

Of course the government can print all the money it wants to but it has to find people willing to trade their work or their goods against this money. If they expect it to be worth close to nothing in a short time, they won’t.

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