EconoMonitor

Great Leap Forward

Lessons We Should Have Learned from the Global Financial Crisis

This is the first of my weekly blogs addressing economic issues from the perspective of what is commonly called “modern money theory”. (As the great philosopher Yogi Berra said, “you can look it up”—or Google it.) However, the subjects tackled will go far beyond the topic of monetary theory, hence, I will also draw on other traditions including Keynesian theory, the Institutionalist approach, and the work of Hyman Minsky (my dissertation advisor). Still, as indicated by the masthead the blog is mostly forward-looking–with a glance back to history. As Minsky always told me, “we stand on the shoulders of giants”. The perspective adopted is unashamedly progressive and unapologetically critical. As we always said in the 1960’s, “question authority”. If I haven’t pissed-off somebody each week, I’ve failed.

On to the topic this week: the lessons we should have learned from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but didn’t.

For Washington and Wall Street (is there any longer a difference?) the GFC is but a distant memory. The tens of trillions of dollars (that is not an exaggeration) committed by Uncle Sam to the bail-out of banksters has been claimed to be a great success. Wall Street’s share is back up to 40% of all corporate profits. The rich are doing just fine, thank you. Compensation, profits, stock options, and bonuses are up for our elite class. According to a new study (by Andrew Sum, Ishwar Khatiwada, Joseph McLaughlin and Sheila Palma at Northeastern), since “recovery” began in the second quarter of 2009 corporate profits took 88% of the growth in national income. Workers? Oh, they captured just 1% of that growth. And all of that was in the form of benefits (thanks to rising healthcare costs!)—real wages and salaries actually fell for the first time ever in a “recovery”. Needless to say, it is also a jobless recovery—the worst performance ever in terms of employment creation, too.

But that is easy to overlook in Washington/Wall Street since the biggest financial institutions escaped with barely a scratch, and have returned to the same practices and rewards that caused the GFC. By hook and by crook, Wall Street also escaped re-regulation as the flaccid Dodd-Frank Act avoided any fundamental reform. In any case, the Republicans have made clear that they will not provide new funding to regulatory agencies, so even the weak rules in the Act will never get enforced. And, so far (fingers crossed!) none of the big Wall Street crooks has been prosecuted for high crimes. Yes there have been some fines and civil cases, and a few lesser criminals like Bernie Madoff were sacrificed, but all the big banksters are not only free—they are still running their criminal organizations (called “chartered banks” in polite conversation), advising the White House, and gearing up to fund the next presidential campaign.

All of that is to say that financial reform is deader than Elvis. Nothing can be done until the next Wall Street-induced crash. But I am an eternal optimist—the crash will come soon—and so it is time to enumerate the lessons we should have learned from the GFC so as to prepare the reforms that should have been adopted.

1.      The GFC was not a “liquidity crisis”. At a recent conference, one of the Treasury officials who participated in the bail-out told me that the crisis really just amounted to a “global missed payment”. The whole world was just short a few bucks in its checking account. Uncle Sam provided overdraft facilities and resolved the problem. No harm, no foul (the Treasury official actually used those words). As granddad would say, “bullpucky”. What actually happened is that default rates on risky mortgage loans rose sharply while home prices plateaued. Megabanks took a look at their balance sheets and realized they were not only holding trashy mortgage products, but also lots of liabilities of other mega financial institutions. It suddenly dawned on them that all the others probably had balance sheets as bad as theirs, so they refused to roll-over those short-term liabilities. And since the Leviathans were highly interconnected, when they stopped lending to one another the whole Ponzi pyramid scheme collapsed.

To label that a liquidity crisis is silly. It was massive insolvency on a Biblical scale that led to the “run on liquidity” (really, a refusal to refinance one’s fellow crooks—criminal enterprise always relies on trust, you know). The banks had no good assets, just trashy real estate derivatives plus loans to each other, all backed by nothing other than a fog of deceit. All it took was for one gambling banker to call the bluff. Every banker looked for an even bigger sucker to refinance the junk. The only saps left standing sat (so to speak) in Washington. And that is why it took tens of trillions of lending, spending, and guaranteeing of trash by Uncle Sam acting as sucker of last resort to stop the carnage. (As every gambler knows, if you do not know who the sucker is within 5 minutes of beginning the game, you are the sucker.)

All the big banks are still insolvent. It is only the backing provided by Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke as well as the “extend and pretend” policy adopted by regulators that keeps them open. As we know from the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s, leaving insolvent institutions open only blows the hole bigger—especially when you leave the fraudsters in charge so they can run what my colleague Bill Black calls a “control fraud” that loots the institution to pay top management huge bonuses. Sound familiar? As our philosopher Yogi says, it’s déjà vu all over again. But this time the vu is a heck of a lot bigger than the déjà.

2.      We should have learned that underwriting matters. That is the process of determining credit-worthiness of borrowers and putting in place incentives to ensure payments will be made as they come due. All the big institutions involved in home finance eliminated underwriting over the past decade. The “efficient markets” hypothesis said you really do not need that because markets will discover the proper prices for securitized loans; and lending was so much easier and cheaper to do if you did not bother to check the financial capacity of the borrower. Hence, Liar’s Loans and NINJA Loans (no income, no job, no assets, no problem!).

If you look closely at recent financial crises you find that the cause is usually deterioration of underwriting standards. Market discipline does not work because when some asset class is booming, lenders come to expect that prices of those assets will continue to rise. Lenders will lend more relative to value, current income, and expected cash flow because asset price appreciation makes most loans good. If things do not work out, loans can be refinanced, or the collateral can be seized and sold. It goes on until someone asks about the Emperor’s New Clothes. The discovery that the asset is as naked as the Emperor’s derrière causes prices to reverse course and then to collapse, so borrowers sink underwater and lenders are left insolvent.

I realize that it appears banks have retrenched, tightening standards and cutting off loans to all but the most credit-worthy. They apparently learned their lesson? That always happens in the aftermath. But the point is that there have been no significant regulatory and supervisory reforms put in place to deal with the next euphoric boom. Hence, underwriting standards will again decline—gradually at first and then with a rush to the bottom, with those lenders willing to adopt the lowest standards “winning”. Market “discipline” is always perverse—there is no lending when it is most needed, and no underwriting when that is most needed.

3.      The third lesson is that unregulated and unsupervised financial institutions naturally evolve into control frauds. As Willy Sutton responded when he was asked why he robbed banks, he said “because that’s where the money is.” Of course, he was small time. According to Bill Black, the best way to rob a bank is to own one. Well, it’s even better to run one—just ask Bob Rubin or Hank Paulson or Jamie Dimon, or “doing God’s work” Lloyd Blankfein. The hired gun in charge can strip the bank of far more money than the owners will ever get—and one CEO’s take can dwarf the sum total of all bank robbers in recent US history.

But, we still do not want to recognize that there is fraud everywhere you look. We know that the banks committed lender fraud on an unprecedented scale (the best estimate is that 80% of all mortgage fraud was committed by lenders); we know they continue to commit foreclosure fraud (and that their creation, MERS, has irretrievably damaged the nation’s property records—this will take a decade to sort out); and we know they duped investors into buying toxic waste securities (using bait and switch—substituting the worst mortgages into the pools) and then bet against them using credit default swaps. Every time an investigator finally musters the courage to go after one of these banks, fraud is uncovered and a settlement is recovered.

Fraud became normal business practice. I have compared the home finance food chain to Shrek’s onion: every layer was fraudulent, from the real estate agents to the appraisers and mortgage brokers who overpriced the property and induced borrowers into terms they could not afford, to the investment banks and their subsidiary trusts that securitized the mortgages, to the credit ratings agencies and accounting firms that validated values and practices, to the servicers and judges who allow banks to steal homes, and on to CEOs and lawyers who signed off on the fraud. To say that this is the biggest scandal in human history is an understatement.

4.      And the worst part is the cover-up. We should have known since the Watergate years that it is the cover-up that really bites. If you think about the real estate food chain, it all begins with some poor slob mortgage broker working out of his garage. He’s told that if he can increase his through-put and induce borrowers to take more expensive loans than they actually qualify for, his rewards will be increased. The lender banks created Orwellian-named “affordability products” that insiders called neutron bomb mortgages (designed to blow up and kill the borrower, but leave the home standing) and told the brokers to make those and to refuse the usual documents required for loans—such as W-2 forms and bank account information. Why? As Ollie North put it, “plausible deniability”. Hey, we didn’t know this unemployed guy couldn’t afford a half million dollar home in Brookside Acres with an exploding adjustable rate mortgage loan at 120% of home value! That borrower defrauded us (add whimpers for effect)!

Once you’ve made a Liar’s loan, every other link in the home finance chain must be tainted. And that means every transaction, every certification, every rating, every signature all the way up to the CEO of the investment bank is part of the cover-up. Not to mention the President of the New York Fed (oh, remind me, where did he go?) who has access to the doctored bank books.  And remember those “stress tests”, passed by all the banks, whose balance sheets were government-certified A-OK? Who was it that signed off on that?

We do not need to make the accusation of conspiracy. Individual self-interest (known as “covering one’s rear-end”) will do the trick. The only questions remaining for everyone operating in that chain were these: how can I make a buck?, how can I get out of this Ponzi scheme before it collapses?, and how can I stay out of jail? Well, they made the bucks; most did not exit before the collapse, but Uncle Sam covered their tails; and now they are waiting for the statute of limitations to run out while the nation’s top cops look the other way. That clock is ticking.

But we haven’t learned any of these lessons. We’ve done no reforming. We let the Ponzi schemes continue, run by the same crooks. We’re going to let them contribute the estimated $1 billion that will flow to the reelection campaign of President Obama. And we expect that history will not repeat itself. Isn’t that the clinical definition of insanity?

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BreezyOhioJuly 6th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

Thanks for the clean concise overview of the crisis. All true as can be too. Probably the most succinct version I have read. All we're missing is some inclusion of the ratings agencies and most important, your take on a solution/direction in the aftermath.

After reading your bio I have to wonder .. what do you tell your students about the occupation they've chosen? Strive to work for the banking cabal? Create your own Morgan stanley account with dad's savings? Is there room for all of them in academia? I'm not being a smartass here, I really want to know .. it must be tough seeing the "profession" of your choosing reduced to a Texas hold'em poker game.

In case you cannot tell, I like your writing.

Mario SeccarecciaJuly 6th, 2011 at 2:59 pm

Randy,
Excellent piece! I especially like your emphasis on the importance of "trust" in all criminal organizations, which now includes much of the banking sector, with the exception of community banks and credit unions, etc.!
However the fifth lesson (if I counted it right!) that I would add is that this criminal behavior does irreparable damages to the real economy in terms of mass unemployment and terrible economic dislocation, with the policy authorities then being under immense political pressure from these same crooks (or their political spokespersons) not to "deficit spend" in order to repair some of the damages to the real economy. It happened in the 1930s and they are repeating the mistakes yet again. I'm sure you'll agree.
Mario

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Randy,
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