Roubini Topic Archive: Finance and Banking
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Istanbul as International Financial Center
It is no secret that the Turkish government wants to make a financial center out of Istanbul. They unveiled this “grand project” back in 2009, and then held a series of public and private meetings with stakeholders and experts afterwards,, which led me to update my original column in 2011. They have also been partnering [...]
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Is the music about to stop again?
Yep, at least according to the Central Bank of Turkey: Jeremy Irons’ character in the movie Margin Call, the CEO of an investment bank, reveals at one point why he “earns the big bucks”: “I’m here for one reason and one reason alone. I’m here to guess what the music might do a week, a [...]
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Turkish Monetary policy’s ‘Groundhog Day’
I wasn’t planning on writing about monetary policy, but reader comments seem to hint that some of the steps taken by the Central Bank at its rate-setting meeting on Jan. 22 were unclear. Here’s my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, on last Tuesday’s Central Bank of Turkey rate-setting decision, where I go over the [...]
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Irrational exuberance a la Turca
As I argued in my Jan. 11 column and later at my blog, last week’s rally in Turkish assets was caused by money flowing into emerging markets. Negative economic news, such as lower growth forecasts from the World Bank and Germany, tampered with capital inflows this week. As a result, while emerging markets’ stocks fell [...]
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Yep, another surprise from the Central Bank of Turkey- well, sort of…
The Central Bank did lower the floor of the interest rate corridor, the borrowing rate, by 25 basis points (bp) as I was hinting it would in my latest post. As I mentioned in the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, only four out of twelve economists polled by business channel CNBC-e were [...]
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Turkey’s contribution to the independence of central banks debate
Central bank independence is deeply engraved into the hearts and minds of almost all economists and is one of the must-haves for a sound macroeconomic policy. Or it used to be up until very recently. Economist Joseph Stiglitz recently challenged that notion by noting Jan. 3 that “in the crisis, countries with less independent central [...]
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I expect you to die, Mr. (Turkish) Bond
That’s what the villain Auric Goldfinger tells 007 when the latter asks, “Do you expect me to talk?” in the Bond movie Goldfinger. This is exactly how I feel about Turkish bonds. This is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I argue that the ultra-low Turkish bond yields are not [...]
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Turkish economists to shut up – or get locked up
I had just sat down to write my predictions on the Turkish economy and markets Friday afternoon when I realized I could go to jail for that. Bloomberg reported Jan. 4 that Société Générale, a French bank, had “ordered employees to cease commentary on Turkey pending a review of new legislation that threatens up to [...]
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Mission: Impossible – Christmas Turkey
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report for Turkey late Dec. 21. These documents are scrutinized by Turkish policymakers before publication. However, reading between the lines can still reveal a lot about where the Fund and the government differ on economic policy. Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News [...]
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Turkey: The Return of the Consumer
One of the most confusing and puzzling, or confuzzling, aspects of the Turkish economy of late has been the paths taken by the producer and the consumer, which were diverging until recently. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I argue, based on the latest leading indicators, that this dilemma [...]













