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Roubini Topic Archive: Currencies
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The Central Bank of Turkey manages to surprise yet again!
The Central Bank of Turkey managed to surprise again by cutting its overnight lending rate, the ceiling of the interest rare corridor, a full one percentage point and not hiking reserve requirement ratios (RRRs). Of the 16economists surveyed by business channel CNBC-e, only 3 were expecting a cut, and all only 25bp. Similarly, only 2 [...]
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What will the Central Bank of Turkey do at Tuesday’s rate-setting meeting?
Despite a lot of push from a world-renowned ornithologist friend, I never took up bird-watching. It seemed way too difficult to wait for hours to catch a glimpse of a small unidentified flying object and try to identify it. I was in Ankara on March 15 to, among other things, give a guest lecture at [...]
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Yep, another surprise from the Central Bank of Turkey- well, sort of…
The Central Bank did lower the floor of the interest rate corridor, the borrowing rate, by 25 basis points (bp) as I was hinting it would in my latest post. As I mentioned in the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, only four out of twelve economists polled by business channel CNBC-e were [...]
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Another surprise from the Central Bank of Turkey?
The Central Bank of Turkey will be holding its monthly rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting tomorrow. Of the twelve economists polled by business channel CNBC-e, four expect a cut in the floor of the Bank’s interest rate corridor. Of these four, only one expects the ceiling of the corridor to be lowered as well. [...]
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The year of economic surprises for Turkey
Turkish economic data surprised in 2012. The best way to show that would be to compare expectations of economic variables from the Central Bank’s Survey of Expectations with actual realizations. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I summarize the Turkish economy in 2012, as best I can within [...]
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Understanding the Central Bank of Turkey: Targeting Volatility, not Inflation
I started the year at Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) with a column on Turkish monetary policy, and out of the 63 columns I wrote this year, 18 were directly on monetary policy. Therefore, is only appropriate I end the year with a column on Turkish monetary policy. During his presentation of the bank’s 2013 Monetary [...]
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Mission: Impossible – Christmas Turkey
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report for Turkey late Dec. 21. These documents are scrutinized by Turkish policymakers before publication. However, reading between the lines can still reveal a lot about where the Fund and the government differ on economic policy. Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News [...]
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Who will help Turkey out (of Junk): S&P, Moody’s or Mayans?
I was planning to do guest columns once and actually had a guest blogger for a while. As a fellow blogger, I know that the hardest part of blogging is to commit, and so when Ali G. (not the rapper) stopped blogging, I wasn’t surprised at all. While I would happily welcome him back anytime, [...]
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Rate Decision Leaks From the Central Bank of Turkey
There was a huge uproar when the Turkish Statistical Institute released November inflation figures 17 minutes early by accident exactly two weeks ago. No one reacted when Central Bank of Turkey Gov. Erdem Başçı revealed tomorrow’s rate-setting decision a week early.: Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss [...]
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An economist’s field trip for credit: Why do Turkish corporates have huge open positions?
I have been talking to banks for the past month or so about a loan for our family business, which has led to some quite interesting observations. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column summarizes what the column is about rather well: I explain why it is very attractive to borrow in [...]
