EconoMonitor

The Kapali Carsi

  • Rate hike at tomorrow’s Turkish monetary policy meeting?

    Let me cut right to the chase: The Central Bank should hike rates, although even that may not work in controlling lira depreciation at this point. In any case, they probably won’t. I gave away any incentive to read on, but let me nevertheless explain. Here’s the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) […]

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  • Would you invest a dime in Turkey?

    I have been getting a lot of calls from investors, those with a longer-term focus as well as the usual short-term hedgies, who are obviously concerned about the political and economic developments in Turkey. I used to urge them to be cautious, while also emphasizing the potential gains they could have if Turkey emerges from […]

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  • Reading into expectations of Turkey market economists

    The Central Bank of Turkey released its monthly survey of market expectations today. I am in the process of finalizing my own Turkish economy forecasts. I know, I know, 6 percent of the year is already gone, but my priority was to follow and cover the political crisis unfolding in Turkey- as world-renowned Turkish philosopher […]

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  • General themes on the week’s Turkish economic data

    We had a lot of data releases in Turkey this week. Rather than delve into the nitty gritties of the statistics, I would like to point out some general themes that emerged. Here is the intro. my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I go over a few general themes that emerged from this […]

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  • The best introduction to the woes of the Turkish economy

    Nope, it is not one of my columns. It is an article by University of Maryland’s Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. Here is how my friend Murat Ucer summarized it in his Turkish economic data program Turkey Data Monitor: Open F/X positions or so-called “currency mismatches” are always a source of concern in emerging markets.  This recent Voxeu […]

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  • Short take on latest Turkish data: General Themes

    We had/are having important data this week in Turkey. I already wrote about consumer confidence in my latest post, and let me try to bring out a few general themes from the other releases rather than try to examine each in detail; after all, you have the analyst/market economist reports for that. External Rebalancing: The […]

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  • Surprise Suprise: Turkish consumer confidence plunges

    According to preliminary figures released this morning, Turkish business channel CNBC-e’s preliminary consumer confidence index plunged in January. Well, “plunged’ may be an understatement, but I couldn’t find a stronger word. See for yourself: The graph has the main index as well as the two sub-indices: Consumer expectation is based on the forward-looking questions of […]

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  • Turkish Energy Undersecretary’s “read my lips” moment

    Turkish Energy Undersecretary Metin Kilci was quoted by Turkish daily Hurriyet as saying that natural gas prices would not be hiked this year. Since Turkey imports its natural gas, the government has to raise prices when the lira depreciates, as you can see in a graph of natural gas prices and USDTRY: The Undersecretary is […]

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  • Lawlessness to rule in Turkey instead of rule of law

    Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, who is in charge of coordinating economic policymaking, was on Turkish business channel Bloomberg HT a day after Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s CNNTürk interview I featured in my last column. Here’s the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. Babacan emphasized the importance of rule of law for […]

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  • Turkish Sultanateminister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda in action again

    Just like during the Gezi protests, it has fallen to Finance Minister Mehmet “Nominal” Şimşek, who is moonlighting as Minister of Enlightenment and Propaganda, to clean up the economic debris. This is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I take on Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek’s interview with Turkish penguin […]

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