EconoMonitor

The Kapali Carsi

  • Industrial Production: Another Turkish data puzzle

    At 6.9 percent yoy, December industrial production (IP) came in much higher than expectations of 4.9 percent. Part of this is base effect; in fact, working day and seasonally-adjusted industrial production was unchanged over the previous month. However, machinery and equipment, which Turkey economists use as a leading indicator of investment, surged (red is yoy, […]

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  • A standard and poor decision on Turkey – NOT!

    Jagshemash; Here’s the link to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss S&P’s Turkey outlook downgrade. As usual, I have a few additional points to make: First, some people are arguing that there is a political element to all this. You may remember that Turkey got the coveted second investment grade the […]

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  • Turkish Inflation blow to PM Erdogan’s Santa Evita Myth

    I got an email from a loyal reader, who fervently believes that Turkish inflation statistics are cooked, shortly after the January figures were released on Feb. 3. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I often get emails from readers, usually after an inflation data release:), who claim that their […]

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  • O (Turkish) Consumer, Where Art Thou?

    Most of the analyses of the Central Bank of Turkey’s rate hike last week concentrated on its impact on banks and corporates. There was surprisingly little mention of consumers. Starting my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column with this sentence, I go on to explain why consumers might get hit worse than businesses and banks […]

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  • How Central Bank of Turkey saved P.M. Erdoğan’s derrière

    I couldn’t help but notice several misconceptions about Tuesday’s midnight’s emergency rate hike. Here is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. One of those misconceptions gave the column its title. To quote directly from the column: “Some have also argued that the rate hike hurt the ruling Justice of Development Party’s […]

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  • Turkey: InDebted by the Exchange Rate

    Government officials have been emphasizing stock prices and bond yields to highlight the economic cost of the graft scandal, while ignoring the asset that could affect the economy the most, the exchange rate. Here is the introduction to my latest Hurriyet Daily News column (HDN). In the previous column, I explained why it doesn’t make […]

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  • Kill (Turkish conspiracy theories and corruption) Bill

    I know, I know: I got obsessed with the Kill Bill title🙂 And I accept that it is very cheesy. Anyway: According to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the graft investigations are part of an international plot to prevent Turkey from becoming a regional power by thwarting Erdoğan’s mega projects like the third […]

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  • Kill (Turkish) Bill- but make traders rich in the process

    There is no special meaning to the title, it is just as it is:The Central Bank is killing the lira and making foreign currency (FX) traders rich in the process. The Bank intervened in FX markets yesterday “because of unhealthy pricing conditions in exchange rates”, it said in a short statement this (Thursday) morning. As […]

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  • Another Turkish yield curve inversion

    The Turkish yield curve inverted again yesterday (January 21), and it was still inverted today. I already discussed in detail how to interpret a yield curve inversion, generally as well as specifically for Turkey, during the latest inversion two weeks ago, so I’ll skip the introduction and just explain what this means. This inversion is […]

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  • Turkish rate decision simplified

    The Central Bank of Turkey kept its overnight lending rate, which it had renamed the marginal funding rate (MFR) in the 2014 Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Strategy report it published at the end of December. But it also didn’t, and it did a horrible job communicating it!:( I will do their job and make […]

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