EconoMonitor

The Kapali Carsi

  • Turkey’s monetary policy soap opera

    Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on with his criticism, other cabinet members got involved as well, and on both sides. Actually, there is only one side […]

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  • The Central Bank of Turkey’s Janissary March

    As you probably know, the Central Bank of Turkey saved Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ass back at the end of January: If they hadn’t undertaken the emergency hike, the market rout could have resulted in a mini-crisis less than two months before local elections… What has Erdogan done in return? Just been ungrateful! […]

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  • Back Again (after a sad Turkish spring)

    Hello; I am back to Economonitor after a surreal three months. I (kind of) chronicled (or at least alluded to) what I went through in my Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) columns, and so if you are a loyal reader, you will already know all this, but here’s a brief summary in case you are not, […]

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  • Japan’s (and Turkey’s) J-curse

    In my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, I discuss why the weakness in the yen did not result in an improvement in the country’s trade balance, as the J-curve effect would predict (and therefore it is a curse)- and what this would mean for Turkey. As usual, you can read the whole thing at the […]

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  • Have Turkish political risks been priced in?

    Two of the three analysts interviewed by Wall Street Journal Turkey for an article with a similar title think so. Most of the investment professionals I have talked to this past week are of the same opinion. That second sentence was confirmed when Turkish stocks rallied after the remaining detainees in the graft scandal, including […]

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  • Why are emerging markets in political turmoil?

    Do you think that it is a coincidence that quite a few emerging markets have seen public unrest, and some even thrown into political turmoil, in the last few months? Or do you think that this is all a conspiracy by dark powers to cut emerging markets down, as Turkish PM Recop Tazyik Gazbogan believes […]

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  • Forever blowing (Turkish housing) bubbles

    If you would like to learn about the Turkish housing market, you should visit Upton Park in East London tomorrow… Here’s is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. If you would like to know why, or how come King Kong ain’t got shit on Rio de Janeiro, you need to read […]

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  • An interesting fact on Turkish inflation expectations

    Inflation expectations in the Central Bank’s monthly survey of expectations surged on Friday.  On the one hand, this is obviously a negative development, especially since it came after the Bank’s emergency rate hike on Jan. 28. On the other hand, the rate hike could manage to stabilize expectations. But I would just like to make […]

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  • My warning to all IstanBulls

    Markets’ mood towards Turkey took a decisive turn for the better last week. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I look at the different reasons for this change in mood, such as economic data, emerging market sentiment and political developments. I also give you my take on whether I agree with the optimistic […]

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  • How economists say ‘I love you’

    Did you ever wonder how economists make use of the dismal science to declare their love? Here are several examples, some adapted from Liz Fosslien’s post for last year’s Valentine’s Day that caused quite a stir at the time, others my “invention,” and a couple from economist friends. Here is the first paragraph of my […]

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