I am starving! I should grab a bite before heading home when my Havatas arrives in Taksim in half an hour. Anyone care to join?
10 minutes ago
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Turkey’s Hidden Risks in 2013
During my meetings with investors in London last month, everyone asked whether the country’s large current account deficit could pose a threat next year. Only one person inquired about political risks before I mentioned them. Here is the intro. to a recent Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column of mine, where I argued that political risks [...]
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Turkish exports grow 20 percent- I am worried!
I am probably one of the most loyal disciples of the dismal science, the term Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle coined for economics in reference to Thomas Malthus’ grim predictions of starvation: I manage to find a sad side to even the happiest economic news! Preliminary exports data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TEA), which were [...]
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An economist’s field trip for credit: Why do Turkish corporates have huge open positions?
I have been talking to banks for the past month or so about a loan for our family business, which has led to some quite interesting observations. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column summarizes what the column is about rather well: I explain why it is very attractive to borrow in [...]
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The deadliest of the seven deadly sins: The role of “pride” in Turkish economic policymaking
While vanity is definitely my favorite sin, I would argue that pride is the deadliest of the seven deadly sins. After all, it caused Lucifer to fall from Heaven. An ardent Turkey researcher shared with me, over lunch during my London trip in the summer of 2011, that government officials were falling under the spell [...]
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Moody’s France downgrade: French turkey au sauce Hollandaise
As I was expecting, Moody’s did not raise Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade in its annual review released a day before its credit risk conference in Istanbul on Nov. 21. I have always argued that while an upgrade is a possibility in 2013, it would be too optimistic to expect one this year, but [...]
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The IMF on Turkey
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Turkey on November 16th and released the traditional short accompanying document yesterday. When I say short, it is really a very short piece, so have a look at it, but here is what I deemed as important. The Fund notes [...]
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Basta with Turkish Monetary Policy: Doing Business in Turkey
I just realized that my last half a dozen or so Hurriyet Daily News columns and posts here have been on Turkish monetary policy, either directly or indirectly. In my defense, there was a lot of demand for that sort of analysis, as investors wanted to know how the Central Bank would respond to excessive [...]
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Still Moody on Turkey
All the investors I spoke to during my London investor trip two weeks ago were wondering how the Central Bank would respond to excessive capital flows, and whether credit rating agency Moody’s would follow in Fitch’s footsteps by upgrading Turkey to investment grade. We will get partial answers to both questions this week. Tomorrow we [...]
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The Governor’s Speech: Central Bank of Turkey targets the real exhange rate
Well, not quite… But speaking to the newly minted Turkish finance portal AA Finans on Monday (videos naturally in Turkish), Central Bank of Turkey Governor Erdem Basci said that if the real effective exchange rate (REER) ends up within the 120-125 range, the Central Bank would ease its monetary policy only gradually, whereas 130 would [...]
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Investors want to gobble up Turkey
I spent the first half of the week in London, invited by an investment bank to speak to their clients on the Turkish economy. I met with half a dozen or so investors on Tuesday. Here is the intro. to my Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I summarized my impressions from my investor trip [...]
