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Turkish economists to shut up – or get locked up
I had just sat down to write my predictions on the Turkish economy and markets Friday afternoon when I realized I could go to jail for that. Bloomberg reported Jan. 4 that Société Générale, a French bank, had “ordered employees to cease commentary on Turkey pending a review of new legislation that threatens up to [...]
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The year of economic surprises for Turkey
Turkish economic data surprised in 2012. The best way to show that would be to compare expectations of economic variables from the Central Bank’s Survey of Expectations with actual realizations. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I summarize the Turkish economy in 2012, as best I can within [...]
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Understanding the Central Bank of Turkey: Targeting Volatility, not Inflation
I started the year at Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) with a column on Turkish monetary policy, and out of the 63 columns I wrote this year, 18 were directly on monetary policy. Therefore, is only appropriate I end the year with a column on Turkish monetary policy. During his presentation of the bank’s 2013 Monetary [...]
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Mission: Impossible – Christmas Turkey
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its Article IV consultation report for Turkey late Dec. 21. These documents are scrutinized by Turkish policymakers before publication. However, reading between the lines can still reveal a lot about where the Fund and the government differ on economic policy. Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News [...]
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Turkey: The Return of the Consumer
One of the most confusing and puzzling, or confuzzling, aspects of the Turkish economy of late has been the paths taken by the producer and the consumer, which were diverging until recently. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I argue, based on the latest leading indicators, that this dilemma [...]
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Who will help Turkey out (of Junk): S&P, Moody’s or Mayans?
I was planning to do guest columns once and actually had a guest blogger for a while. As a fellow blogger, I know that the hardest part of blogging is to commit, and so when Ali G. (not the rapper) stopped blogging, I wasn’t surprised at all. While I would happily welcome him back anytime, [...]
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Rate Decision Leaks From the Central Bank of Turkey
There was a huge uproar when the Turkish Statistical Institute released November inflation figures 17 minutes early by accident exactly two weeks ago. No one reacted when Central Bank of Turkey Gov. Erdem Başçı revealed tomorrow’s rate-setting decision a week early.: Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss [...]
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Turkish data marathon deceives most
In Turkey, we have a “Turkish economy data week” once every three months, as quarterly National Income Accounts are released along with the monthly Balance of Payments and industrial production figures. Dec. 11’s October current account deficit did not get much attention, as it was in line with expectations. Markets were also still busy trying [...]
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Change of guard at Turkish economy’s helm
On Monday, I submitted my post for the Economonitor special “The biggest risk for 2013 that no one but me is worried about”. Then, yesterday, I had a detailed post on one of the risks I mentioned in Monday’s post, a possible row between President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on who [...]
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Turkey- Cemaat Wars: The Emperor Strikes Back
I submitted my post for the Economonitor trending topic “The biggest risk for 2013 that no one but me is worried about” on Monday. In that post, I argued that Turkish political risks were being ignored and therefore unpriced at the moment. One of the political risks I mentioned there was the possibility of internal [...]















