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Destabilizing Turkish economic statistics released
I am talking about unemployment numbers by city: The 2010 figures were released a couple of days ago, and my Turkey Data Monitor, my Turkish data companion, came up with the following great graph: The darker the blue, the more the unemployment rate in a city. Adana, home of Besiktas’s brothers-in-arms Demirspor and the Adana [...]
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Thank you!
I just got an email from Josh, the network editor Roubini Global Economics Economonitor. He was letting the in-house bloggers of the monthly statistics, and they are really good: While I have not asked his permission to divulge the numbers, I can say that RGE’s pageviews for the past month are in six-digit territory, and [...]
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Mixed Results (and a New Weapon) from Central Bank of Turkey’s Business Tendency Survey
The survey is important because not only is it more or less an accurate predictor of growth, it is also the first (earliest) leading indicator. So let’s cut to the chase right away. Here are the main two indicators that come from the survey: The real sector confidence index fell for the first time since [...]
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Guest Column: End of the Great Moderation
I got enough positive feedback from last week’s guest column by Taylan Bilgic that I decided to make it regular. Below is Taylan’s most recent column, which was published today at Hurriyet Daily News. As in last week, I have a couple of quick comments right below the column… [The economy is what lays [...]
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What to Make of the Lira Weakness
A few days ago, I used a guest post to discuss why Turkish assets are not doing well. While Taylan Bilgic, the author of the column, was arguing that risk aversion was the main culprit, I added that domestic factors were important as well, as Turkish assets were also underperforming with respect to peers. I [...]
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Turkish Political Instability, You Were Missed…
As I mentioned at the end of the previous post, political developments in the afternoon made the rate decision a complete non-event: First, after High Election Board disallowed the MP status of an independent Kurdish deputy in prison, the rest of the Kurdish pack decided to boycott the Parliament. The problem is that if there [...]
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Another Rabbit (or Two) Out of the Central Bank of Turkey’s Hat
The Central Bank of Turkey, or CBT, kept both the policy rate and required reserve ratios, or RRRs, constant at today’s rate-setting meeting. This was totally expected, but some analysts were expecting the Bank to turn more hawkish to prepare the market for rate hikes, or at least more RRR increases. But the one-pager released [...]
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Open letter to the Central Bank of Turkey
No, it’s not a job application this time around, but just to beg them to change the current method of conducting expectations surveys. The latest of the Bank’s bi-weekly expectations surveys came out today, and there isn’t anything really interesting, except the ongoing inconsistency between the end-year current account deficit, or CAD, and growth expectations: [...]
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A call to arms…
I have noticed that I have somewhat matured since transferring the blog over to Economonitor. No more silly jokes, no more outright attacks to the eziks (yes, my dear Prof. Wiki, I did mean fenerbahce), etc… So to remind myself of the good old days, some light humor, on the government’s efforts to cool down [...]
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Guest column: Risk aversion makes a comeback
As I had mentioned in the intro. to this blog, I will be having guest columns here from time to time. Here’s Taylan Bilgic, managing editor at Hurriyet Daily News, explaining the fall in Turkish assets with risk aversion. I have some comments below the column, which was published in Hurriyet Daily Dews a few [...]
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Thomas Grennes
Thoughts From Across the Atlantic
Thomas Grennes is a professor of economics at the North Carolina State University and a former visiting faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. His research has dealt with various aspects of international economics, including open economy macroeconomics, international finance, and international trade in agricultural products. Recent research topics have included macroeconomic aspects of the Great Moderation, offshore outsourcing, sovereign wealth funds, and the relationship between government debt and economic growth. Earlier work dealt with emerging market issues in the Baltic countries and Russia and trade and macro policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic history topics include the Columbian Exchange of plants and animals, the effects on food markets of introducing mechanical refrigeration, and the integration of Tsarist Russia into the world grain market. When he is not involved in economics, he enjoys mountain hiking.
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