My thoughts on why "getting in the game" is so important. RT @ReformedBroker: Compound Experience, Not Just Interest http://t.co/0ZxqGawR $$
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Turkey’s (un)Holy Trinity
Whenever Turkish exports falter, exporters and their sidekicks from the academy and media (academedia for short) begin to whine about the exchange rate.It is an entirely different question whether the exchange rate is to blame for the country’s trade deficit and the high import content of exports – one which was addressed at a conference organized by the Central Bank of Turkey, or CBT, back in November. Instead, I would like to discuss whether the exchange rate is really overvalued and what, if anything, can the Bank do about it. -
Turkey: The Sum of All Fears
It is hard to argue with numbers, especially when the number in question is a growth rate that is the highest in Europe and second highest in the OECD. But that is exactly what I am going to do.
What comes down must go up…
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Republican Economics for the People
Below is my column from the Hurrriyet Daily News and Economic Review. You’ll see that many questions remain on CHP’s economic policy, as Kılıçdaroğlu has chosen to speak about only a handful of topics. For example, I would like know the the following: What is CHP’s take on capital flows? What role do they see for Turkey in the G-20? What is their take on the fiscal rule? On an independent revenue administration? How about energy or the environment?In fact, as you’ll see (or rather read), Kılıçdaroğlu does not tell much about the few topics he chooses to discuss, either. So my long-running goal of doing a lengthy interview with the CHP’s top brass in economic policy is alive and kicking. Anyway, here we go:In my heated arguments with die-hard Republican People’s Party, or CHP, supporters, where I almost always end up being labeled as a closet Justice and Development Party, or AKP, sympathizer, I try to defend myself, when my political arguments fail, highlighting that we know nothing about CHP’s economics policy. -
For South Africa, the Vuvuzelas Blow
If it were not for the instrument from hell and a very disappointing World Cup, I might have never got to look into South Africa’s economy and its currency, the rand.
Originally developed to kill time during boring spells and mentally shut off the vuvuzela noise in World Cup matches, my most recent pastime began to turn rather interesting when I discovered a fascinating relationship: Since the Lehman collapse, the lira-rand exchange rate has been correlated with the VIX index, a measure of the implied volatility of U.S. stock options, often touted as the markets’ fear gauge. One of my favorite economics one-liners is correlation is not causation, but when you dig a little bit deeper (but not as deep as Bilica), even more interesting facts emerge about these two currencies and economies.
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Taking the Ankara Horse to Water
Economics columnists focusing too much on macroeconomics and finance and not enough on the real economy and sectors are frequently criticized by David Judson, editor-in-chief for the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.
He does have a point. Despite some occasional glitches every now and then, Turkey’s macroeconomic policy is mostly on track thanks to prudential macro management after the 2001 crisis. However, macro reforms have not been followed my micro ones except for a few feeble attempts during the first Justice and Development Part, or AKP, government.
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Looking for Turkey’s Future
One of the perks of being (or pretending to be one in my case) a journalist is that you get to follow interesting conferences.
So when I heard that Financial Times Chief Economics Commentator Martin Wolf was in town to give a speech at the Garanti Future Summit, I was quick to sign up. At the IMF-World Bank Meetings in Istanbul, he had shared deep insights, not only during my interview with him and in the roundtables he was moderating, but also in the seminars where he was in the audience. Dr. Wolf was as brilliant and captivating as ever, but it was the second speaker who really stirred up the floor.
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The ‘M’ Is There for a Reason
When a friend asked me the other day whether the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, was asking Turkey to raise interest rates, my weekly stressful search for a topic was over.
The IMF published the preliminary conclusions for its combined Article IV and post-program monitoring missions at the end of May, which fell victim to my inaugural interview last week. I also thought that almost everything the Fund was saying made sense; ergo devoting a column seemed redundant. But now that I have read about all the Fund-bashing in the media and research reports, I decided it might yet be important to share my views.
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Turkey: Addendum to Giving Credit Its Due Credit
In my column on credit developments in Turkey, I noted that credit was growing rather fast. While the statement is true in principle, there is a small problem, which I could not explain due to space constraints (since the column also appears on the hardcopy of Hurriyet Daily News, I need to adhere to a strict 3700-character limit). -
Giving Credit Its Due Credit
One of the most impressive Turkish economics developments this year has been the rapid loan growth.
Corporate, consumer and housing loans have each registered more than 10 percent rises in the year to date. Annualized, this would translate to a growth of around 50 percent. But before you bring out the party gear, it is important to heed a couple of important disclaimers.
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Turkish Fiscal Rule: Dead the Day It Was Born
I was watching a Richard Gere movie last week, where one of the villains had a tattoo on his forehead in Cyrillic that read “I was dead the day I was born.”
The expression seemed to ring some bells. First, I thought it was from a Beckett play, but I had given up on existentialism long ago. It all made sense a couple of days later when Economics tsar Ali Babacan unveiled the much-awaited fiscal rule, establishing that I had experienced some kind of premonition.
