The Kapali Carsi

Turkish exports grow 20 percent- I am worried!

I am probably one of the most loyal disciples of the dismal science, the term Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle coined for economics in reference to Thomas Malthus’ grim predictions of starvation: I manage to find a sad side to even the happiest economic news!

Preliminary exports data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TEA), which were released on Dec. 1, showed a remarkable 20 percent yearly increase in November. These statistics exclude gold, so the gold-for-gas trade with Iran is not included. Then, what is behind this figure?

Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I show that the huge yearly increase in November exports is not much more than a simple “working days” effect. Then, I discuss Turkey’s export prospects for the next few months using some leading indicators and show that they are not very bright. Finally, I argue that Turkey’s “exports miracle story” of the last few years has a couple of important “holes” in it. Anyway, you can read the whole thing at the HDN website.

For once, I don’t have anything to add to the column, so this is it!

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