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The Kapali Carsi

Turkish exports grow 20 percent- I am worried!

I am probably one of the most loyal disciples of the dismal science, the term Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle coined for economics in reference to Thomas Malthus’ grim predictions of starvation: I manage to find a sad side to even the happiest economic news!

Preliminary exports data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TEA), which were released on Dec. 1, showed a remarkable 20 percent yearly increase in November. These statistics exclude gold, so the gold-for-gas trade with Iran is not included. Then, what is behind this figure?

Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I show that the huge yearly increase in November exports is not much more than a simple “working days” effect. Then, I discuss Turkey’s export prospects for the next few months using some leading indicators and show that they are not very bright. Finally, I argue that Turkey’s “exports miracle story” of the last few years has a couple of important “holes” in it. Anyway, you can read the whole thing at the HDN website.

For once, I don’t have anything to add to the column, so this is it!

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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