EconoMonitor

The Kapali Carsi

Turkish exports grow 20 percent- I am worried!

I am probably one of the most loyal disciples of the dismal science, the term Victorian historian Thomas Carlyle coined for economics in reference to Thomas Malthus’ grim predictions of starvation: I manage to find a sad side to even the happiest economic news!

Preliminary exports data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TEA), which were released on Dec. 1, showed a remarkable 20 percent yearly increase in November. These statistics exclude gold, so the gold-for-gas trade with Iran is not included. Then, what is behind this figure?

Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I show that the huge yearly increase in November exports is not much more than a simple “working days” effect. Then, I discuss Turkey’s export prospects for the next few months using some leading indicators and show that they are not very bright. Finally, I argue that Turkey’s “exports miracle story” of the last few years has a couple of important “holes” in it. Anyway, you can read the whole thing at the HDN website.

For once, I don’t have anything to add to the column, so this is it!

Comments are closed.

Most Read | Featured | Popular

Blogger Spotlight

Otaviano Canuto

Otaviano Canuto is Senior Advisor on BRICS Economies in the Development Economics Department, World Bank, a new position established by President Kim to bring a fresh research focus to this increasingly critical area. He also has an extensive academic background, serving as Professor of Economics at the University of Sao Paulo and University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Brazil.

Economics Blog Aggregator

Our favorite economics blogs aggregated.