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The Kapali Carsi

Four Passover Seder Questions

Here’s how a Muslim (at least, on paper) economist demonstrates religious tolerance:

Since I am undoubtedly a member of the Zionist interest rate lobby according to pro-government daily Sabah, I might start acting like one by celebrating the Easter and Passover of my heathen readers.

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, I try a “novel” approach to discuss recent developments in the Turkish economy; recent meaning in the last 10 days or so. You can read the whole thing here, but since I could discuss each of the four distinct topics only briefly, I would like to expand on each a bit. But before that, I should say I really loved the editing for the hardcopy version of the article (gotta love PressDisplay!). The editor has done two major improvements to the column: 1. S(he) has gotten rid of the Easter reference, which is really redundant. 2. S(he) has gone out of his/her way to find out and include the original Hebrew version of my closing sentence.

Anyway, leaving “creative writing” matters aside and coming to the content: Here’s what Citi Turkey economists had to say about the trade and growth figures (I am linking to them because none of the other analysts I trust uses a hyperlink, which means I’d have to use SugarSync to link, and I am way too lazy for that). They have written about inflation as well, but my main point there would be that you can see the high oil price’s toll on transportation, which is actually converging to the headline figure despite record oil prices.

Transportation prices actually increased 1.2 percent mom in March, but the base-year effect caused the yoy number to actually decrease. But some of the recent hikes in Turkish gas prices will be reflected in April inflation.

As for the investment incentives, I am planning on devoting a separate column to that, so I’ll save what I have to say for later. Suffice it to say for now that I am really skeptical of cherrypicking industries, as most (OK, not most, but some) economists are, even though many countries such as Brazil are going down this route. There have been really good pieces on that in Turkish, but really almost none in English, so maybe I should do a separate column for the incentives for next week…

2 Responses to “Four Passover Seder Questions”

DerekApril 10th, 2012 at 4:09 pm

Emre, I have been trying to get a hold of you via email for a potential project. Please contact me. Apologies for the unconventional approach. Derek Light, Oxford Research

edeliveliApril 10th, 2012 at 4:12 pm

That's definitely unconventional, but it worked:) Please give me 12h or so to respond as I am totally swamped…

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Emre Deliveli The Kapali Carsi

Emre Deliveli is a freelance consultant, part-time lecturer in economics and columnist. Previously, Emre worked as economist for Citi Istanbul, covering Turkey and the Balkans. He was previously Director of Economic Studies at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey in Ankara and has has also worked at the World Bank, OECD, McKinsey and the Central Bank of Turkey. Emre holds a B.A., summa cum laude, from Yale University and undertook his PhD studies at Harvard University, in Economics.

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