[Turkey’s 61st government seems to have formed a habit of making U-turns on every major issue. Many had pinned their hopes on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership in solving the Kurdish problem. He has declared there is none. Likewise, many hoped his government would have a solution for the Cyprus issue. Speaking Wednesday in Cyprus, Erdoğan showed that a non-solution is acceptable as a solution for him. Undoubtedly, this newfound “hardline-ism” is boosted by Greece’s – and eurozone’s –debt troubles.

Another dramatic U-turn came in the economy, as top policy makers suddenly started warning about impending doom. “Don’t spend too much,” said Bülent Gedikli, the deputy chief of the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, on Tuesday. Deputy PM Ali Babacan amplified a day later: “If problems [in the eurozone and the U.S.] are not solved, one has to be ready for negative scenarios.”

Yesterday, it was the turn of Economy Minister Zafer Çağlayan, who warned about possible “negative developments” in the euro/dollar balance.

Regarding the Kurdish and Cyprus issues, Turkish policy makers may have disappointed many, but in regards to the economy, their ominous prophecies seem to reflect genuine concern. In an era that is led by trends in the advanced capitalist world despite all the talk on BRICs, the outlook indeed is dim. Fitch Ratings, which yesterday showed the red card to the Turkish economy, puts it as such in its latest ‘Credit Outlook’: “The US, Japan and the UK face a formidable challenge to reduce large budget deficits and stabilize high and rising public debt ratios, in an environment of high private-sector debt and weak growth. Even countries with strong ‘monetary sovereignty’ face a persistent budget constraint, and a failure to stabilize public finances would put downward pressure on ratings over the medium term.”

This is only one half of the picture: As policy makers and the ruling elite in the West attempt to load the fiscal burden of their astonishing “economic stimulus” to the shoulders of the not-so-privileged, social cracks are widening, threatening to disrupt not only the economic, but also the political peace within societies.

In the meantime, the trillions-worth stimulus that continues even today seems to be unsuccessful in spurring growth. Yesterday’s only big news was not the Brussels summit: Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for the eurozone displayed an alarming deterioration in Turkey’s main export markets. The manufacturing PMI for Germany, the star of the post-crisis global economy, was especially weak at 52.1 points in July – around 10 points below its April level. The services PMI stood at 52.9 points, a full eight points below the February level. Gabriel Stein of Lombard Street Research calculates that, even if no further weakness is seen in the following months, this level will correspond to a weak quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.25 percent in the July-September period.

Understandably, Turkish businesses have started to lose faith in their key export market. The latest “Export Expectations Index” displays a 20.4 point decline, down to 122.6 points. As eurozone growth grinds to a halt and North Africa has become virtually inaccessible, even the recent depreciation of the Turkish lira may not be the panacea that exporters seek.]

This is a good complement to my column, which will appear at the Daily News website in a few hours. There, I discuss whether the IMF is responsible for the recent tremors in Turkish markets, and if not who is…

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