For once, I agree with the Central Bank of Turkey…
On Tuesday, Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci told economists that the Bank expected seasonality and working-day adjusted (swda) growth to remain flat in the second quarter, after growing 3.6 and 1.4 percent in the previous two quarters.
This morning, we got May industrial output…
I know it's not visually appealing, but all is in one graph:)
…and the 8 percent yearly or -0.3 percent monthly figure is certainly in line with a flat swda GDP in the second quarter, at least according to my little flawed model 
… Anyway, you can read the full details in the Citi note (BTW, you may have noticed that I prefer to post Citi notes- that’s mainly because they are the only one with a hyperlink- at least among the research houses I trust that publish in English-; I could of course save a note to my computer and give a Sugarsync or Dropbox link, but this is just easier).
Anyway, what the Bank did not mention on Tuesday is that the economy could be picking up in the third quarter as well. It is not uncommon in Turkey to see rebound after elections, and the June PMI was rather strong. Besides, we have been seeing a disconnect between sectors catering to domestic and external demand, with the latter contracting much more- this may be the weak global demand explanation the CBT has given in its presentation. But unlike the CBT, I see no reason on why that weak global demand will continue… We’ll keep watching.
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