Rest of today’s data
I already talked about CNBC-e confidence indices in the previous post, but there were a couple of other interesting data releases today as well.
First, exports will grow more than 20 percent yoy in June, if the Turkish Association figures are any guide.
As you can see, they are an excellent predictor of official TurkStat exports, but the key is again imports. For that, I would need to wait a couple of weeks, until VAT on imports is released, to make a forecast.
Second, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce inflation was down 0.7 percent mom in June, while food prices were down 2.1 percent. Although the food sub-index is often used by Turkey economists to guesstimate food inflation, I was reminded last month that ICC is not an exactly accurate predictor even of food inflation..
… and June is not a particularly good month to make inferences on food inflation from the ICC:
…but I still expect food inflation to adjust after last month’s hike, so it will probably turn out even lower than the ICC figure. I am not penciling in a forecast for this one, though- as I don’t have to:)- one of the perks of not being a market economist anymore:)
Finally, Turkish PMI rose to 52.3 in June, up from 50.6 in May, with increases across the board. It is interesting that this came at a time when most other PMIs were rather weak…
One Response to “Rest of today’s data”
Tandoor • April 17th, 2012 at 7:36 pm
but I still expect food inflation to adjust after last month’s hike, so it will probably turn out even lower than the ICC figure. I am not penciling in a forecast for this one, though- as I don’t have to:)- one of the perks of not being a market economist anymore:)
