A bit of shameless advertising
… or rather good Turkey reading: A couple of the interviews I gave during the past few weeks have found their way into columns:
First, there is the Bloomberg Businessweek article by Suzy Hansen: You an see my comments on page 4, just above Dani Rodrik’s. Dani has a great summary of the Turkish economic dilemma, BTW…
Then, there is the Forbes India piece by David Judson, the former editor-in-chief at my paper, Hurriyet Daily News.My comments are on the second page.
Anyway, I think both pieces are rather balanced, reflecting the AKP economic policymaking machine and the Turkish economy in an objective manner, with +s and -s. I would not dare to say that I caused this objectivity; I think the causality is going the other way: Anyone doing a piece on “the AKP economic miracle” would not contact me, I guess:)
2 Responses to “A bit of shameless advertising”
Dear Mr Deliveli,
I have read both pieces and they are interesting. I also found interesting additions to them in two pieces over at TEPAV:
Fatih Özatay: ,"Although the Financial Stability Committee seems to be a good idea in terms of coordination, it turns out to be the opposite when you think through. The relevant minister already has the chance to meet and exchange ideas with the officials of the mentioned institutions, if deemed necessary. If this is not sufficient, then the purpose is different: they are planning to initiate a chain of command. This is not good. We will not suffer from this immediately, but those days might come. If you think why short term capital inflows are a concern, what I imply will become clear. Who needs differentiating Turkey in a negative sense from other emerging market economies given the current risky milieu?"
I tried to find out the answer, but I couldn't. Do you have any idea?
And this may add to it, by Güven Sak: ,,In the current circumstances, what should a country do to control the current account deficit problem? It either reduces the disposable income of consumers to tighten the demand or depreciates the currency, increase the relative price of foreign goods, keep the current nominal income constant and thus tighten the demand. You can do both at the same time. But tightening the demand is the only option in any case. In this sense, a country like Turkey has to make a single decision. The government has to decide whether or not it will introduce measures to reduce the disposable income of the people. This was why the government played a number of tricks to manage the game before the elections. If the government chooses not to fulfill its responsibility, the price adjustment will be ensured by markets via the exchange rate, in the case of Turkey."
I think this Thursday's meeting will be telling which way Turkey chooses. If there is no rate hike, the lira will go sky-high.
@L_G: As you know from my columns, my line of thinking is along the same lines as the Guven Sak column. I also agree with Ozatay: The FSC is a good idea in theory, but a couple of complacent decisions, and everyone will be on its feet claiming that the BRSA and more importantly the CBT are not independent. But I think the lira can muddle through a bit more without a major depreciation for some time more, even without the rate hike…
@economopoulos: It is surprising that Delphine Strauss misspells Recep, as she lives in Turkey, as far as I know. Anyway, I too catch a lot of Turkey errors in prestigious papers like the FT and the Economist. As for the articles, I went out of my way to give reporters some data: After all, it is all in my TDM program (where my graphs come from), so it takes me only a couple of minutes to fetch all those. That's why I call myself "your friendly neighborhood economist". Anyway, as for the mistakes you found, the GDP and growth figures in the article are correct. I guess Wikipedia was giving the IMF's earlier estimates. As for the population. you are absolutely right; that is the figure as of end of 2010; that one they did not ask me, and they got it wrong:), as I doubt Turkey added 6.3mn people in the past six months:) BTW, if you are interested in Turkish data, the CBT has a very good electronic database called EVDS: http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/cbt-uk.html It is not as user-friendly at St.Louis Fed's FRED, but it does get the job done:)