EconoMonitor

The Kapali Carsi

The End of a Long-Running Soap Opera

You probably heard the news, but if you haven’t, the Turkey-IMF saga has come to an end:

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr1076.htm

For my part, I am really happy for my good call, done at a time the consensus view was that the agreement would be sealed in a matter of weeks, if not days:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=fool-some-sometimes-you-can-2010-01-03

I guess the Fund was no more foolish than the Na’vi, after all:)

Anyway, this turn of events brings two questions to mind:

1. I don’t want to be labeled as a conspiracy theorist, but I am just wondering about yesterday’s weak Treasury auction. I really would not doubt the Fund’s or the Treasury’s integrity (no sarcasm here); actually, that’s why I am confused.

2. As in earlier IMF-related announcements, some have already started speculating on the implications of this on the possibility of early elections. Although I did argue for early elections in my latest Forbes piece, I am not sure about what no Stand-by would mean for elections:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/09/turkey-politics-equities-opinions-contributors-emre-deliveli.html

I have yet to put this column in by blog, but maybe the PM also believes, as I argue in the piece, that the referendum is likely to be perceived not on the constitutional changes, but on the AKP. As the French say, on verra:)


Originally published at Emre Deliveli’s Blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

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