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The Kapali Carsi

  • Japan’s (and Turkey’s) J-curse

    In my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, I discuss why the weakness in the yen did not result in an improvement in the country’s trade balance, as the J-curve effect would predict (and therefore it is a curse)- and what this would mean for Turkey. As usual, you can read the whole thing at the [...]

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  • Have Turkish political risks been priced in?

    Two of the three analysts interviewed by Wall Street Journal Turkey for an article with a similar title think so. Most of the investment professionals I have talked to this past week are of the same opinion. That second sentence was confirmed when Turkish stocks rallied after the remaining detainees in the graft scandal, including [...]

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  • Why are emerging markets in political turmoil?

    Do you think that it is a coincidence that quite a few emerging markets have seen public unrest, and some even thrown into political turmoil, in the last few months? Or do you think that this is all a conspiracy by dark powers to cut emerging markets down, as Turkish PM Recop Tazyik Gazbogan believes [...]

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  • Forever blowing (Turkish housing) bubbles

    If you would like to learn about the Turkish housing market, you should visit Upton Park in East London tomorrow… Here’s is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. If you would like to know why, or how come King Kong ain’t got shit on Rio de Janeiro, you need to read [...]

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  • An interesting fact on Turkish inflation expectations

    Inflation expectations in the Central Bank’s monthly survey of expectations surged on Friday.  On the one hand, this is obviously a negative development, especially since it came after the Bank’s emergency rate hike on Jan. 28. On the other hand, the rate hike could manage to stabilize expectations. But I would just like to make [...]

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  • My warning to all IstanBulls

    Markets’ mood towards Turkey took a decisive turn for the better last week. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I look at the different reasons for this change in mood, such as economic data, emerging market sentiment and political developments. I also give you my take on whether I agree with the optimistic [...]

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  • How economists say ‘I love you’

    Did you ever wonder how economists make use of the dismal science to declare their love? Here are several examples, some adapted from Liz Fosslien’s post for last year’s Valentine’s Day that caused quite a stir at the time, others my “invention,” and a couple from economist friends. Here is the first paragraph of my [...]

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  • Industrial Production: Another Turkish data puzzle

    At 6.9 percent yoy, December industrial production (IP) came in much higher than expectations of 4.9 percent. Part of this is base effect; in fact, working day and seasonally-adjusted industrial production was unchanged over the previous month. However, machinery and equipment, which Turkey economists use as a leading indicator of investment, surged (red is yoy, [...]

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  • A standard and poor decision on Turkey – NOT!

    Jagshemash; Here’s the link to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss S&P’s Turkey outlook downgrade. As usual, I have a few additional points to make: First, some people are arguing that there is a political element to all this. You may remember that Turkey got the coveted second investment grade the [...]

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  • Turkish Inflation blow to PM Erdogan’s Santa Evita Myth

    I got an email from a loyal reader, who fervently believes that Turkish inflation statistics are cooked, shortly after the January figures were released on Feb. 3. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column. I often get emails from readers, usually after an inflation data release:), who claim that their [...]

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Blogger Spotlight

Dan Steinbock

Dr Dan Steinbock is a recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among the major advanced economies (G7) and large emerging economies (BRICS and beyond). In addition to his advisory activities (www.differencegroup.net), he is affiliated with major US universities as well as international think-tanks, such as India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore).

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