U.S. and Middle East – On Perception of Economic Power
The United States and its Middle East ally, Israel, once again, share a similar fate. This time, however, the context is somewhat unexpected. Over the last decade the perception of economic power played a significant role in both countries’ foreign policy and military capabilities. Now, in a surprisingly coordinated timing, their people question the use of national security rhetoric in an economic debate and call for a change of national priorities. A silent revolution is unfolding.
As part of the debt ceiling saga, which finally is about to come to an end, the Pentagon would be facing a spending cut of $600 billion dollar unless a bipartisan committee will reach a compromise in the next couple of months. Army General Martin Dempsey, President Obama’s nominee to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the situation as “extraordinarily difficult and very high risk”.
Interestingly, the debate on the debt ceiling has not involved many serious discussions in the media on defense spending cuts. This follows the usual lack of transparent and detailed discussion on defense expenditures in the Congress and media, due to both national security and technical reasons.
I think the story is much more complicated and reflects a change in priorities. While this past decade saw security threats on the rise, thus introducing the American people to a global war on terror and two wars, voters are still more concerned about the costs associated with leading social issues and their financial implication, such as health care, education, and job creation.
Yet, policy makers and strategists who follow the effects of recent macroeconomic events in the United States on its ability to preserve its superpower status and ability to confront current and future military challenges should look beyond the limited availability of funds to support military operations. Downgrading the U.S. debt and the uncertainty surrounding the US economy can present a serious threat to the national currency as a leading global currency in the coming months. The US strategic advantage also depends to a large extent on the trust of its military partners in its currency and economy.
The United States is not alone. In what might be described as an incarnation of the Arab Spring in the Middle Eastern democracy, hundreds of thousands of people have been marching the streets in Israel, calling for affordable housing, free education and health care, and lower food prices.
The timing could not have been more challenging for the Israeli government. The recent events in the Arab world have forced the Israeli defense establishment to call for additional budget for the defense forces. The need to strengthen the border with Egypt, one of Israel’s peace partners, is one example for that.
Moreover, the establishment of the Palestinian state is closer than ever with a unilateral declaration at the United Nations this coming September. The consequences of a unilateral declaration without any progress on the ground are yet to be seen. All these foreign political and diplomatic events should cost the Israeli budget a significant amount. Yet, any future redistribution of resources following the local social revolution will, by definition, directly affect the annual defense budget. Although the military establishment has won similar battles before, many commentators claim that in this case it may be much harder.
The tension between socio-economic and defense center of powers has an impact on peace and stability in the region. If some predictions will turn true, Israelis will vote in the next elections chiefly based on the economic agenda, and not based on terrorism and foreign policy. This new reality could change the Israeli political landscape and its ability to compromise on the Palestinian issue, and could ultimately change the government’s priorities.
In a place like Israel, where national security dictates the daily agenda, these developments can be dramatic. In addition to the immediate implications to Israel’s ability to sustain its strategic positioning, the perception of Israel’s economic and security resilience can be challenged by its neighbors. The current civil unrest can have serious long-term regional consequences. While a broader coalition can support pro-peace forces within the Israeli society and reduce its political risk, perceived weakness by neighboring countries can easily translate into a military conflict.
Doing more with less is both a challenge and an opportunity. Military expenditures in 2009 were 4.7% of GDP and 6.3% in the US and Israel respectively. But many might find these numbers not sustainable, taking into account the rising costs in both countries. The U.S. and Israel should share their experiences. Eventually, they share similar fates.
One Response to “U.S. and Middle East – On Perception of Economic Power”
Ozmiri • September 6th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Even though Dr. Chalamish sees similarities between the U.S. And Israel, I see differences. The main one is that the masses in Israel took to the street to protest and in order to make sure that their opinions will influence the policy making process. In the U.S. The people stay put without a real input into the policy crafting process.
