Roubini Topic Archive: Asia/Pacific
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The Real Experiment That Is Being Carried Out In Japan
The future never resembles the past – as we well know. But, generally speaking, our imagination and our knowledge are too weak to tell us what particular changes to expect. We do not know what the future holds. Nevertheless, as living and moving beings, we are forced to act. – John Maynard Keynes Discussions of [...]
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The A-b-e Of Economics
And the world said “Let Shinzo Abe be”, and all was light. “The point is not that I have an uncanny ability to be right; it’s that the other guys have an intense desire to be wrong. And they’ve achieved their goal.” Paul Krugman A new craze is sweeping the planet. The image I have [...]
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Hungary’s Matolcsy Joins Japan’s Abe In Practicing The Ancient Art Of Verbal Intervention
It’s amazing what you can achieve these days just by promising to do something. It’s also fascinating to watch just what a storm you can stir up. Last July Mario Draghi surprised markets when he vowed to do anything – whatever it would take – to save the Euro. He didn’t go into details, he [...]
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Japan’s Looming Singularity
by Claus Vistesen and Edward Hugh According to Wikipedia, in complex analysis an essential singularity of a function is a “severe” singularity near which the function exhibits extreme behavior. The category essential singularity is a “left-over” or default group of singularities that are especially unmanageable: by definition they fit into neither of the other two [...]
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In Search Of Lost Demand
So here’s the 5 trillion dollar trick question. In an interesting article on the limitations of central bank monetary policy in the current environment, Reuter’s Alan Wheatly made the following statement which caught my attention. “Central banks are rummaging through their toolkits because, despite slashing interest rates and buying vast quantities of bonds, they have [...]
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Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards a Halt
This months manufacturing PMI data only confirm what several months of prior surveys (and now the latest US jobs report) have been telling us, namely that growth in the developed economies is getting scarcer and scarcer, and harder and harder to come by. Following a brief brief period of stabilisation, which lasted roughly from November last [...]
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Reading the Writing on the Japanese Wall
The recent decision by Fitch Ratings to downgrade the Japanese sovereign by one notch, from AA minus to A plus, has all the outward appearance of being a predictable non-event. As the Reuters article reporting the decision puts it, Credit downgrades usually do not have a lasting impact on markets in Japanbecause its government bonds are [...]
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Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?
The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. As the JP Morgan report puts it: “The global manufacturing sector continued to record below trend growth at the start of 2012. At 51.2 in January, the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ rose [...]
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Is Japan in Danger of a Deflation Relapse?
“Japan’s V-shaped recovery has now become a statistical fact rather than our forecast. According to retail sales statistics, the level of retail sales in June has already exceeded the level prior to the disaster. Sales of general merchandise and apparel have recovered and replacement demand for vehicles and reconstruction demand for household equipment have lifted [...]
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India’s Economy Hits What Has To Be A Very Welcome “Soft Patch”
“If you look at the world, it would inevitably appear India’s growth is preordained. The world needs working hands. The world needs back offices. India seems to be a natural fit…We are producing a workforce which is not only for India, but a global workforce.” Sunil Bharti Mittal, founder and chairman of New Delhi-based Bharti [...]
