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Ireland: Crying All the Way to the Bank
Ireland’s Minister for Finance Michael Noonan is an optimistic man. He is also a persistent one. He is optimistic, since he clearly feels that his country’s 85 billion euro IMF/EU programme is going to work as planned, and he is persistent as he patently refuses to let sleeping dogs lie. The dogs in question here [...]
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High Noon Approaching for Greece?
The Greek tragedy in several acts would appear to be approaching a climactic moment. The warnings coming out of Berlin all week have been hard to ignore: “Greece either puts up or shoves off” would seem to be the blunt message being offered. Only yesterday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble informed members of the parliamentary [...]
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Life on PMI Cold Comfort Farm
As the heat wave which has been hanging over Southern Europe for the last couple of weeks steadily eases off there is little sign that any of the warm air which is dissipating is reaching the chilled motors of the European and Chinese economies. The results of this months Flash PMI readings are at best [...]
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Eastern European Growth – Coming Rapidly off the Boil?
The latest round of EU GDP data, brought to light a reality which many who have been closely following the economies of Eastern Europe already suspected: that the heavily export dependent economies in the region would almost inevitably be dragged down by the rapid slowdown in Europe’s principal economic motor, the German economy (see this [...]
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The Policymaker’s Fear of the Italian Penalty Shot
“While the impact of service-sector liberalization and privatizations may be positive on medium-term growth, the budget cuts are likely to have quite negative effects on the short-term GDP dynamic. We expect Italian GDP growth to slow to close to zero in 2012 and 2013.” Giada Giani, Citigroup According to one anonymous German official speaking off [...]
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Going Dutch – One Possible Solution to the Euro Debt Crisis?
Looking back over the last 18 months of Europe’s debt crisis, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi recently invoked Winston Churchill’s famous quip, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else.” Europeans too, he assured his audience would also get it right, eventually. [...]
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Is the Risk Accompanying Estonia’s Eurozone Membership Really that Low?
“But the go-ahead Estonians are already scenting the next challenge. Should the single currency crumble, they are determined to be on the inside track for any new German-centred “super-euro”. Goodbye “eastern Europe”; welcome to the “new north”.” -Edward Lucas, writing in The Economist Estonia’s economy put in another sterling performance in the second quarter of [...]
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Could There Really Be A Recession Risk In Germany?
Oh, come on Edward, surely this time you are going too far? The Germany economy is the strongest in Europe, time and again we have been told it is powering and powering ahead. It has just demonstrated record growth performances. So where the hell could you possibly get the crazy idea that Germany might be [...]
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Spain’s High Risk Election Process
As Mr Zapatero put it on Saturday, when he announced the date of Spain’s general election, the decision “is in the country’s interest” since from now on there will be certainty, and “certainty is stability”. While it is quite possible that almost all of Spain’s politicians shared this sentiment, and welcomed the bringing forward of [...]
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Is Japan in Danger of a Deflation Relapse?
“Japan’s V-shaped recovery has now become a statistical fact rather than our forecast. According to retail sales statistics, the level of retail sales in June has already exceeded the level prior to the disaster. Sales of general merchandise and apparel have recovered and replacement demand for vehicles and reconstruction demand for household equipment have lifted [...]
