EconoMonitor

Don't Shoot the Messenger

  • Greek Re-entry (or Grentry) Not The Game Changer Many Think It Is

    There is no doubt that Greece’s recent bond sale was an exciting and even invigorating moment for many people. The WSJ’s Simon Nixon, for example, called it “a symbolically important moment for the euro crisis”. Reuters’ Marius Zaharia suggested the speed of the come back could even be a game-changer for the heavily indebted southern […]

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  • On The Trail Of Italian Debt

    Looking for trends and correlations in that landslide of economic data which arrives, day in and day out, on our desks is normally something akin to trying to find a needle in a very large and raggedy haystack. From time to time, however, some things are just to obvious not to be noticed, like the […]

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  • Firmly Anchored Expectations, No Postponement of Purchases?

    This article from former European Central Bank board member Jürgen Stark (Doomsayers risk a self-fulfilling prophecy) has been occasioning a lot of commentary over the last week or so. According to Stark, the current deflation debate “lacks three important points: an in-depth analysis of the forces driving inflation down; a clear distinction between “benign disinflation” […]

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  • The Growing Mess Which Will Be Left Behind By The Abenomics Experiment

    According to wikipedia, “overdetermination is a phenomenon whereby a single observed effect is determined by multiple causes at once, any one of which alone might be enough to account for (“determine”) the effect.That is, there are more causes present than are necessary to generate the effect”.  In this strictly technical sense Japan’s deflation problem is […]

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  • A Simple Chart Illustrating Why Japan Style Deflation Is Now More Or Less Inevitable In Spain

    Here’s one simple chart which illustrates why I think Japan style deflation is now more or less inevitable in Spain. Curiously it comes from the Ministry of Employment and illustrates the relation between the movement in average wages caused by actual movements in the real wage and those caused by what is known as the […]

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  • Could Mario Draghi Implementing QE At The ECB Possibly Help Matteo Renzi Raise the Italian Deficit?

    What a convoluted title! Still, the lack of formal elegance might just be compensated for by its communicative efficacy. The aim of the above header is to link two names in people’s minds, both of them Italian: Mario Draghi and Matteo Renzi. Naturally the idea is not original, the FT’s Peter Spiegel  recently published an […]

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  • Can demography explain Portugal’s growth slump before the crash?

      The above still comes from a recent Financial Times video entitled “Portugal’s Brain Drain”, which can be found here, and which I encourage everyone to watch. The issue being raised revolves around the current acceleration of emigration from countries on the EU periphery, largely towards the EU core. Typically the emigrants are young educated […]

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  • As Good As It Gets In Latvia?

    For Maurice Pialat, champion of the marginal centre. “This raises a final question, which, while not central to the issues of this paper, is nevertheless intriguing: How can a country with a low minimum wage, weak unions, limited unemployment insurance and employment protection, have such a high natural rate [of unemployment]?” “To summarize, the actual […]

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  • Is The Perfect Always And Everywhere The Enemy Of The Good?

    Against a backdrop which offers an eerie parallel with events which took place somewhat to the North more than 30 years ago, Catalonia is now threatening to separate from Spain. In so doing the region seems to be putting at risk both the future of the host country and beyond that the outlook for the […]

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  • In Spain, Simply Doing Nothing Is Not An Option!

    The recent IMF proposals to help stimulate growth and job creation in Spain at least deserve serious consideration. In a blog post that sought to defend the recent IMF proposal to for a social compact involving a 10% reduction in Spanish wages and salaries, EU Economy and Finance Commissioner Olli Rehn cited a line from […]

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