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Whom the Gods Would Destroy
The times they are a changin’, as the old song goes. Neither in jest nor in total earnest was a truer word ever said in terms of the 2 year old Euro Debt Crisis. The to-ing and fro-ing we have seen over the last few days as commitment to decisions taken at the most recent [...]
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Neither Grexit, Nor Spexit, It’s Fixit or Fexit
The aftermath to last weeks EU summit has certainly proved to be a damn sight more perplexing than the actual summit itself. Contrary to earlier experiences, this time round the more the details have been “clarified” the more confused we have become. Just what exactly was approved? Will Spain’s banks really obtain capital directly from the ESM, and [...]
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And Then There Were Six – Is Slovenia Next?
Slovenia is in the news. According to press reports (and here) solving the problems which have accumulated in the country’s banking system may well mean the country is next in line for some sort of EU bailout assistance. Speculation was fueled last week when ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Slovenia Governor Marco Kranjec said that the country [...]
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On the Brink of What?
This weekend I have been thinking quite a lot about what the world is gonna look like on Monday, and have come to the conclusion that it won’t be that different from the way it was last Friday. The big news surprise of the weekend was in fact Greece related - since the national football team qualified for the [...]
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Rescue Me
I guess we will never know whether or not Mariano Rajoy uttered the two magic words so effectively immortalized in song by Fontella Bass that Saturday afternoon in late May as he cruised down the Chicago River in what Spanish media called a “Love Boat” ride, but one thing certainly is now clear, Angela Merkel [...]
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Global Manufacturing Growth Shudders Towards a Halt
This months manufacturing PMI data only confirm what several months of prior surveys (and now the latest US jobs report) have been telling us, namely that growth in the developed economies is getting scarcer and scarcer, and harder and harder to come by. Following a brief brief period of stabilisation, which lasted roughly from November last [...]
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Reading the Writing on the Japanese Wall
The recent decision by Fitch Ratings to downgrade the Japanese sovereign by one notch, from AA minus to A plus, has all the outward appearance of being a predictable non-event. As the Reuters article reporting the decision puts it, Credit downgrades usually do not have a lasting impact on markets in Japanbecause its government bonds are [...]
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Can This Really Be Europe We Are Talking About?
In recent days I have been think a lot, and reading a lot, about the implications of Greece’s recent election results. At the end of the day the only difference this whole process makes to the ultimate outcome may turn out to be one of timing. If Alexis Tsipras of the anti bailout, anti Troika, party Syriza [...]
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It’s Time to Stop Using Chewing Gum and Chicken Wire in Spain
“Every leg of the eurozone crisis has been marked by denial of the full scale of the problems. Whether Spain’s authorities have been deceitful or wilfully blind makes little difference at this point. The banks will need more capital; the government will need external help, with all the market uncertainty and strings attached that this [...]
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Global Economy Heading Downhill?
According to the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI report, “Growth of global economic activity eased sharply to a five month low in April.” The authors of the report found that on aggregate across the countries surveyed – 30 across the globe – both new order inflows and job creation fell back, leading them to the conclusion that “the world economy [...]
